Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Bailout Fallout: Juncker Lies to Cameron in Revival of ESM; British Taxpayers Protected in Deal
• Hey Janet, It's July 15!
• Empire State Manufacturing: New Orders Negative 4th Time in 5 Months; Slight Bounce in Industrial Production
• China Denies its GDP is Inflated; Chinese Stocks Resume Plunge With 3% Slide; Business Outlook Index Drops to Record Low

Bailout Fallout: Juncker Lies to Cameron in Revival of ESM; British Taxpayers Protected in Deal Posted: 15 Jul 2015 11:11 PM PDT In 2010, Jean-Claude Juncker, current European Commissioner president, made a pledge to UK Prime minister David Cameron, to never again use the ESM to bail out another eurozone country. Cameron's concern was that he did not want to put British taxpayers at risk for eurozone sponsored bailouts. To the shock of Cameron, the ESM came back into play in the latest Greek bailout deal. Did Cameron not know that Juncker was a confirmed and self-proclaimed liar? I think not, so any shock display must be fake, for political show only. British Taxpayers Protected To smooth over UK concerns, Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, worked out an ESM Arrangement to Protect UK Taxpayers, but political damage and mistrust lingers. British taxpayers will not be left exposed for another Greek bailout, George Osborne hopes, under a compromise struck with Jean-Claude Juncker. The Chancellor is prepared to back the European Commission president's controversial plan to revive a mothballed bailout programme that draws in the entire EU, in exchange for guarantees that British liabilities will be underwritten to protect UK taxpayers. Mr Juncker's decision to tear up a binding written agreement given to Britain in 2010 that the European Financial Stability Mechanism would never again be used to rescue the Eurozone has further soured relations with David Cameron, who now doubts whether he is able to trust him. "Of course you can't trust Juncker. That is why he [Cameron] didn't vote for him," a source close to the Prime Minister said. Mr Cameron today endorsed an explosive call from the International Monetary Fund for Greek debt reflief. Mr Osborne had furiously denounced Mr Juncker's plan to revive the EFSM, which uses the EU budget as collateral on cash raised on the open market, to provide up to 7 billion euros in bridging loans to Greece to stave off collapse as it is hit with 12 billion euros of debt repayments in the coming weeks. Leaving British taxpayers exposed was a "non-starter," he said on Tuesday. "The euro zone needs to foot its own bill." Under a compromise backed by the Commission, the EFSM rescue package still go ahead. But Britain's £690 million in liabilities, as well of those of other non-eurozone states, will be insured using Greek funds known as SMP profits held by the European Central Bank. Stephen Booth, of the Open Europe think tank, said Mr Juncker's decision to toss aside an agreement made by 28 heads of government to mothball the EFSM and to make the Eurozone responsible for its own bailouts raises "fundamental issues of trust". EU officials argued the agreement made at a summit in December 2010 was merely "political" and had no legal force. "Today's developments are a boon to those who would like to see the UK leave the EU, and for good reason," said Mr Booth. "This type of political agreement, so readily jettisoned in a moment of Eurozone panic, is precisely the type of agreement Cameron may, at least in part, be relying on to secure his negotiations and sell them to the British public. This episode will only increase the domestic pressure for the UK to secure treaty changes to underpin EU reforms." Mr Cameron secured the assurance in exchange for backing greater Eurozone integration. He subsequently told the Commons it was a "black and white, clear and unanimous agreement that from 2013 Britain will not be dragged into bailing out the eurozone." Agreements Made to Be Broken Cameron must know that EU agreements are made to be broken, and broken at a moments notice for political purposes. Cameron seems to believe things of this nature will not happen again, and again, and again. He even pledged an up-down vote on UK membership in the EU on the stated belief that he can bend the minds of Brussels more to the UK's liking. Question of the Day If Cameron really believes what he says, he is a complete fool. This brings us to the question of the day: Does Cameron really believe what he says, or is it just a political act? Either way, the fallout and collateral damage from the third Greek bailout has just begun. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hey Janet, It's July 15! Posted: 15 Jul 2015 01:10 PM PDT In Congressional testimony today, Yellen Reiterates She Expects Rate Hike This Year. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress Wednesday that the Fed still plans to begin raising interest rates this year amid an improving economy but that it will likely push them up gradually. But the often-contentious hearing before the House Financial Services Committee repeatedly veered into sharp exchanges about the Fed's accountability to lawmakers. On the economy, Yellen said, "Prospects are favorable for further improvement in the US labor market and the economy more broadly. In her semi-annual monetary policy testimony, she added that the Fed "expects US GDP growth to strengthen over the remainder of this year and the unemployment rate to decline gradually." Yellen added that low oil prices and job growth should bolster consumer spending while the negative effects of a strong dollar and low oil prices on exports and business investment diminish. She didn't provide more specifics about the timing of the first hike in the Fed's benchmark rate since 2006, reiterating that it will depend on the progress shown by the economy and labor market. Many economists expect the Fed to act as early as September; others say the central bank is likely delay the move until December or even 2016. Hey Janet, What Day Is It? For those not in a time warp or on the other side of the International date line, it's July 15. A quick check of the FOMC calendar shows Fed policy meetings on July 28-29, and September 16-17. Given the Fed generally gives rate hike notice the meeting before, it seems to me you have about two weeks to decide if you are going to hike in September. Surprise cuts happen all the time, but how many times have we not heard a stern warning before a hike? (Has there ever been an exception before a hike?) Then again, it's different this time. You have had the kid gloves on for four years. Questions for Janet Do the kid gloves ever come off? When will you know? When will we know, that you know? As you have reiterated ad nauseam, it's "data dependent". So let's take a look at the most recent data. Anemic Manufacturing and Industrial Production: Empire State Manufacturing: New Orders Negative 4th Time in 5 Months; Slight Bounce in Industrial Production   Retail Sales Dismal: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economist's Estimate Manufacturing production declined three times in the last six reports and today showed zero growth. Industrial production barely bounced. Retail sales are dismal. It's not that I don't think you should hike. Indeed, I think you have blown massive bubbles everywhere thanks to loosey-goosey Fed policies. Is that your real concern? Are you hiding behind a charade of "data dependent" statements? Or are you blind as a bat? Can you say? Do you even know? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Empire State Manufacturing: New Orders Negative 4th Time in 5 Months; Slight Bounce in Industrial Production Posted: 15 Jul 2015 12:37 PM PDT A couple of new economic reports were out today. Both highlight ongoing weakness in manufacturing. Empire State New Orders Negative 4th Time in Five Months Bloomberg Econoday economists called the Empire State Manufacturing number correctly, but it was a weak one. The consensus estimate was 3.5 vs. the actual report of 3.86. The manufacturing sector isn't picking up any steam this month based on the Empire State index which came in only just above zero, at 3.86. The new orders index, ominously, is in negative ground at minus 3.50. This is the fourth negative reading in five months for new orders which points squarely at slowing overall activity in the months ahead. And hiring this month has slowed, to 3.19 vs June's 8.65 in yet another soft signal. Price data show moderation for inputs at 7.45 vs 9.62. One plus in the report is a slight uptick in the 6-month outlook to 27.04 vs 25.84. Slight Bounce in Industrial Production Following unexpected negative numbers in April and May, an Industrial Production bounce in June came pretty much in line with Economist's Expectations. A plus 0.3 percent rise in June industrial production looks respectable but still overstates strength. The gain follows two prior months of sizable contraction, at minus 0.2 percent and minus 0.5 percent, and reflects a jump higher for utilities and for mining. Manufacturing, and the key component for the series, is unchanged for a second straight month -- truly dead in the water at a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.8 percent. Motor vehicle production is very weak in the June report, down 3.7 percent and more than offsetting a 0.8 percent rise for hi-tech production, a 0.7 percent gain for chemicals, and a 1.4 percent jump for furniture. Retail sales of vehicles surged back in May but turned lower in June which doesn't point to much of a rebound for vehicle production later this summer. One sign of strength is a 2 tenths uptick in the overall capacity utilization rate to 78.4 percent. But here too, the gain reflects gains for utilities and mining and not manufacturing where capacity utilization actually fell 1 tenth to 77.2 percent. This report offers the first conclusive data on the manufacturing sector during June while this morning's earlier release of the Empire State report offers the first anecdotal look at July. And the verdict? A manufacturing sector that is being hurt by weakness in exports and that's dragging down the economy's growth. Coupled with dismal retail sales numbers, the economy does not look that robust to me. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

China Denies its GDP is Inflated; Chinese Stocks Resume Plunge With 3% Slide; Business Outlook Index Drops to Record Low Posted: 15 Jul 2015 01:03 AM PDT China Denies GDP Inflated Chinese GDP came in at 7% beating estimates (not that anyone really believes it, and I sure don't), but the good news stops there. CNBC reports Shanghai Composite Widens Losses After China GDP. Asian equities were mixed on Wednesday, with Shanghai stocks deepening losses despite better-than-expected Chinese gross domestic product data. The world's second-largest economy grew 7 percent on year in the April-June period, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly better than Reuters estimates for a 6.9 percent rise. A spokesperson for the country's statistics bureau insisted that the figure was accurate, denying accusations that it was inflated, Reuters reported. Other data released on Wednesday showed June industrial output and retail sales also beating forecast Chinese Stocks Resume Plunge With 3% Slide The above image captured approximately 2:45AM central. China Business Outlook Index Drops to Record Low Markit reports China Business Outlook Index Drops to Record Low in June. Optimism towards business activity, new business and employment falls to record low. Business revenues and profits forecast to rise at slower rates. Inflationary pressures set to ease. The latest Markit Business Outlook Survey indicated that confidence among Chinese companies declined to a record-low this summer. A net balance of +23 percent of firms expect activity levels to rise over the next year, down from +30 percent in February and the lowest reading in nearly six years of data collection. Optimism Towards New Work Hits Fresh Low In line with the trend for activity, optimism towards new business also fell in June. A net balance of +21 percent of Chinese companies expect new workloads to increase over the coming year, down from +28 percent in February and the lowest reading seen since the survey began in late-2009. Business Revenues Expectations Revised Down Reduced optimism towards activity and new business growth led companies to temper their expectations for business revenue s growth for the year ahead. June data indicated that a net balance of +20 percent of firms expect business revenues to increase over the next year, down from +27 percent in February and a new series low. As a result, confidence towards profits growth also declined to a record low in June, as highlighted by a net balance of +14 percent in the latest survey period. When does China adopt the Fed's line ... "It's all transitory"? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Han Fan: "Video Hub - Han Fan's EXCLUSIVE Interview With Chad Nicely - Hangout" and more videos

Han Fan: "Video Hub - Han Fan's EXCLUSIVE Interview With Chad Nicely - Hangout" and more videos

Mihai, check out the latest videos from your channel subscriptions for Jul 15, 2015.    Play all      Play all   Video Hub - Han Fan's EXCLUSIVE Interview With Chad Nicely - Hangout 17 hours ago  •  21 views Han Fan   + 13 more   Far Cry 3 Walkthrough Playthrough Part 16 4 days ago  •  162 views Full Games Network   + 1 more   Randal's Monday (ITA) - PC - Parte VII 16 hours ago  •  37 views InTheNerdWorld   + 17 more   INSURGENCY - AKs74U SNIPER 60 FPS 3 days ago  •  409 views FPSRoca CoD: Black Ops 2 - Sergeant vs Junior (Sniping) 10 hours ago  •  21 views Sergeant   + 1 more   СМЕРТЕЛЬНАЯ ИГРА ДЛЯ ОЛЕНЕЙ 1 hour ago  •  4,488 views PozzitifonShow   + 2 more   كيفية تحويل أى شاشة إلى smart tv وشغل windows 8.1 عليه بسهولة 1 hour ago  •  31 views Soft Fun Getting Keys From Ignition 16 hours ago  •  6 views Crazy Videos Network   + 1 more   The Messenger/The Belief System 2 days ago  •  96 views 999blockkingz Michael Beltran – Wonderful Life (Michael's Bouncy Radio Remix) (Of... 22 hours ago  •  445 views BIP Records   + 1 more   Want more videos? Visit YouTube for even more! Go to YouTube © 2015 YouTube, LLC 901 Cherry Ave, San Bruno, CA 94066 YouTube sends email summaries like these so you can keep up with your channel subscriptions. If you no longer want to receive these updates, you may edit your preferences here or unsubscribe.

Case Study: How I Turned Autocomplete Ideas into Traffic & Ranking Results with Only 5 Hours of Effort - Moz Blog

Case Study: How I Turned Autocomplete Ideas into Traffic & Ranking Results with Only 5 Hours of Effort

Posted by jamiejpress

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

Many of us have known for a while that Google Autocomplete can be a useful tool for identifying keyword opportunities. But did you know it is also an extremely powerful tool for content ideation?

And by pushing the envelope a little further, you can turn an Autocomplete topic from a good content idea into a link-building, traffic-generating powerhouse for your website.

Here's how I did it for one of my clients. They are in the diesel power generator industry in the Australian market, but you can use this same process for businesses in literally any industry and market you can think of.

Step 1: Find the spark of an idea using Google Autocomplete

I start by seeking out long-tail keyword ideas from Autocomplete. By typing in some of my client's core keywords, I come across one that sparked my interest in particular—diesel generator fuel consumption.

What's more, the Google AdWords Keyword Planner says it is a high competition term. So advertisers are prepared to spend good money on this phrase—all the better to try to rank well organically for the term. We want to get the traffic without incurring the click costs.

Step 2: Check the competition and find an edge

Next, we find out what pages rank well for the phrase, and then identify how we can do better, with user experience top of mind.

In the case of "diesel generator fuel consumption" in Google.com.au, the top-ranking page is this one: a US-focused piece of content using gallons instead of litres.

This observation, paired with the fact that the #2 Autocomplete suggestion was "diesel generator fuel consumption in litres" gives me the right slant for the content that will give us the edge over the top competing page: Why not create a table using metric measurements instead of imperial measurements for our Australian audience?

So that's what I do.

I work with the client to gather the information and create the post on the their website. Also, I insert the target phrase in the page title, meta description, URL, and once in the body content. We also create a PDF downloadable with similar content.

Note: While figuring out how to make product/service pages better than those of competitors is the age-old struggle when it comes to working on core SEO keywords, with longer-tail keywords like the ones you work with using this tactic, users generally want detailed information, answers to questions, or implementable tips. So it makes it a little easier to figure out how you can do it better by putting yourself in the user's shoes.

Step 3: Find the right way to market the content

If people are searching for the term in Google, then there must also be people on forums asking about it.

A quick search through Quora, Reddit and an other forums brings up some relevant threads. I engage with the users in these forums and add non-spammy, helpful no-followed links to our new content in answering their questions.

Caveat: Forum marketing has had a bad reputation for some time, and rightly so, as SEOs have abused the tactic. Before you go linking to your content in forums, I strongly recommend you check out this resource on the right way to engage in forum marketing.

Okay, what about the results?

Since I posted the page in December 2014, referral traffic from the forums has been picking up speed; organic traffic to the page keeps building, too.

Yeah, yeah, but what about keyword rankings?

While we're yet to hit the top-ranking post off its perch (give us time!), we are sitting at #2 and #3 in the search results as I write this. So it looks like creating that downloadable PDF paid off.

All in all, this tactic took minimal time to plan and execute—content ideation, research and creation (including the PDF version) took three hours, while link building research and implementation took an additional two hours. That's only five hours, yet the payoff for the client is already evident, and will continue to grow in the coming months.

Why not take a crack at using this technique yourself? I would love to hear how your ideas about how you could use it to benefit your business or clients.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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Seth's Blog : Shadows and light

Shadows and light

There are two ways to get ahead: the race to the bottom and the race to the top.

You can get as close to the danger zone as you dare. Spam people. Seek deniability. Hide in the shadows. Push to close every sale. Network up, aggressively. Always leave yourself an out.

Or, you can do your work out loud, in public, and for others. Be relentlessly generous, without focusing on when it will come back to you.

In each case, the race to the bottom or the race to the top, you might win. Up to you.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• White Knight Irony: IMF Threatens to Walk Away From Bailout Deal Citing Unsustainable Debt
• Deflationary Pressures Unabated; Another One-Hit Wonder; Transitory Tales
• Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economist's Estimate; September Hike? Really?

White Knight Irony: IMF Threatens to Walk Away From Bailout Deal Citing Unsustainable Debt Posted: 14 Jul 2015 02:46 PM PDT IMF to the Rescue? In the final minutes of the gunpoint "negotiation" between Greece and its creditors, the last two sticking points were IMF involvement and €50 billion in pledged Greek assets in return for another "bailout". Prime minister Alexis Tsipras said he could not give in on those demand. In the end, Tsipras bowed down and kissed the feet of German chancellor Angela Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble on those issues, and everything else they demanded as well. Ironically, it could very well be the IMF that comes to the rescue and sinks this inane deal. IMF Threatens to Walk Please consider IMF Signals it Could Walk Away from Greek Bailout Deal. In the three-page memo, sent to EU authorities at the weekend and obtained by the Financial Times, the IMF said the recent turmoil in the Greek economy would lead debt to peak at close to 200 per cent of economic output over the next two years. At the start of the eurozone crisis, Athens' debt stood at 127 per cent. "Greece's debt can now only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far," the memo reads. Under its rules, the IMF is not allowed to participate in a bailout if a country's debt is deemed unsustainable and there is no prospect of it returning to private bond markets for financing. The IMF has bent its rules to participate in previous Greek bailouts, but the memo suggests it can no longer do so. According to EU officials, Ms Merkel stood firm on the issue, telling the Greek premier there would be no bailout — and therefore "Grexit" from the eurozone — without a formal request made to the IMF for participation in a new programme. The final bailout deal states that "Greece will request continued IMF support" once its current IMF programme expires. If the IMF were to walk away from the Greek programme, it could cause significant political and financial problems for Berlin and other eurozone creditors. Without the IMF's imprimatur, German officials have said they would struggle to win approval for any new bailout funding in the Bundestag. German MPs must approve both the reopening of new talks and the final terms of the third bailout. In addition, an EU official said that of the €86bn in Greek financing requirements, the European Stability Mechanism — the eurozone's €500bn bailout fund — was expected to put up only €40bn-€50bn.  Under the terms of IMF participation in Greece's second bailout, eurozone officials had agreed they would take steps to ensure Athens debt fall go "substantially lower" than 110 per cent of gross domestic product by 2022. The new IMF memo said it is now projected to be at 170 per cent by 2022. It added that financing in a new programme would make Greece's bailout funding levels so large that they would exceed "the 15 per cent of GDP threshold deemed safe" under IMF rules, and would "continue rising in the long term". EU leaders have only proposed lengthening maturities on existing eurozone bailout loans rather than full-scale writedowns, which Berlin argues is against EU law. But the IMF memo said eurozone leaders needed to look at the issue more immediately and in amounts far larger than currently under consideration. Among the options it suggested was a "very dramatic extension" of repayment plans with a "grace period" another 30 years on the "entire stock of European debt" — meaning Greece would not make a single interest or principle payment on eurozone loans until 2053; it already has such a grace period until 2023. Alternatively, eurozone creditors would have to make "annual transfers to the Greek budget" — meaning eurozone grants to Athens — or "deep upfront haircuts", the IMF said. White Night Irony It would be fitting irony if the IMF saved Tsipras from himself. Even if Greek parliament foolishly accepts terms that cannot possibly be fulfilled economically, the IMF may walk away, killing the deal outright. Alternatively, the IMF may force the ball back in Germany's court. Musical Tributes Many songs with the word "walk" in them come to mind . In hope that the IMF does indeed walk away I offer ... I'm Walking Link if video does not play: I'm Walking - Fats Domino Walk Like a Man In contrast, Tsipras crawled like a helpless baby, at best. The next tribute is about what Tsipras should have done, but didn't. Link if video does not play: The Four Seasons "Walk Like a Man" Music Video Watch The Four Seasons "Walk Like a Man" music video from 1963. It features the foursome singing at a dance hall overlooking an interesting variety of energetic fans unleashing dance moves that could have only come out of the 1960s. During the recording sessions that produced the hit song, producer Bob Crewe would stop at nothing for the perfect take. After realizing that a fire had broken out in the room above the studio, he blocked the studio door and continued recording until firemen had to force their way in and pull Crewe out. For further discussion of the gunpoint deal and humiliating cave-in by prime minister Tsipras, please see .... Humiliation; Arrogance; Crucifixion; Demolition of Eurozone Project   Breathtaking Political Capitulation; Tsipras Should Resign; Tsipras Trades Royal Flush for Draw at Inside Straight Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Deflationary Pressures Unabated; Another One-Hit Wonder; Transitory Tales Posted: 14 Jul 2015 12:55 PM PDT Another One-Hit Wonder In spite of counterproductive attempts by the Fed and Central Banks to foster price inflation, debt overhang has stymied those efforts, at least in regards to consumer prices and import/export prices. Last month, following a surge in gasoline prices, import and export prices did rise a bit, but as with retail sales, the import/export price report was another "one-hit wonder". Missed Boat Again Bloomberg Econoday Economists again missed the boat. Cross-border deflationary pressures are not abating as import prices fell 0.1 percent in June with export prices down 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, import prices are down 10.0 percent with export prices down 5.7 percent. These rates are not showing any improvement from prior months with import prices not even getting much of a lift from the bounce back in petroleum prices as the ex-petroleum reading fell 0.2 percent in the month. Year-on-year, ex-petroleum import prices, and this is a core reading, are down 2.6 percent. Outside of monthly gains for petroleum components, negative signs sweep both the import and export columns with agricultural exports, at minus 1.5 percent in June, extending a deep run of declines. Year-on-year, agricultural export prices are down 16.7 percent in what is not good news for the nation's farming sector. A look at finished goods categories shows no price strength anywhere with import prices for capital goods, at a year-on-year minus 1.7 percent, and export prices for consumer goods, at minus 1.9 percent, especially weak. By country, import prices fell 0.5 percent with the NICs, down 0.4 percent with Japan, and down 0.1 percent with China. Prices rose 0.4 percent for Canada, up 0.2 percent for the EU, and up 0.1 percent for Latin America. The strength of the dollar is pulling down import prices but the decline in export prices points to a lack of global price pressures. This report is a reminder that inflation is not yet picking up steam toward the Fed's 2 percent goal and hints at similar results for this week's later releases of producer and consumer prices. Import-Export Prices Crude Oil From Mid-March to early May, the price of crude rose from $44.00 to a high of $63.61. Since then, the price of crude is down by about 17%. Gasoline Futures From Early March until Mid-June, gasoline futures rose from $1.70 to $2.15. Since then, gasoline futures have fallen about 10%. Deflationary Pressures Unabated Economists keep expecting consumers to spend elsewhere "what they save" on gasoline. Of course the idea that one can "save" this way is totally absurd. In practice, consumers have chosen to save, the only way they really can (by not spending in the first place and instead paying down debt). This is a consequence of a consumer that is still over-leveraged in debt. And as I have pointed out, it is only sub-prime auto sales that has propped up the consumer economy. (See Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economist's Estimate). Transitory Tales Today's import/export and retail sales reports are more flies in the ointment of the expected September rate hike thesis. The Fed insists the negative first quarter GDP is "transitory". Second quarter GDP will indeed rebound, but not as much as previously expected. Third quarter and fourth quarter will tell the story. Will the Fed hike before we know how the "transitory tale" ends? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economist's Estimate; September Hike? Really? Posted: 14 Jul 2015 10:02 AM PDT A month ago, following the Expected Retail Sales Bounce, I stated "A sales snapback was coming at some point. May was the month following months of disappointments." Key Questions Here were my two key questions: Will the surge in spending continue? How Much Longer Can Subprime Auto Sales Lead? Economists Surprised Again The surge in spending did not continue. Today's report not only revised last month's sales numbers lower, this month surprised if not shocked economists, with negative numbers below any forecast in the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate. Economists predicted a rise in sales of 0.3%. Actual sales came in at -0.3 percent, a half-percentage-point below the lowest estimate, and another wrong sign for the economists. One month does not tell a story, but it may provide clues.   Advance Retail Sales Numbers Let's dive into the Census report for additional details on Advance Retail Sales for June. Business Percent Change June 2015 Advance From May 2015 Preliminary From May 2015 June 2014 April 2015 May 2014 Retail and food services total ……………………………….. -0.3 1.4 1.0 2.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ….. -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.9 Retail ………………………..……….. -0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……… -1.1 6.5 1.8 8.0 Auto & other motor veh. dealers … -1.0 7.1 1.9 8.6 Furniture & home furn. stores ……… -1.6 4.1 1.4 6.7 Electronics & appliance stores ……. 1.0 -0.4 0.2 -1.5 Building material & garden supplies -1.3 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 Food & beverage stores……………… 0.0 2.4 0.5 3.6 Grocery stores ……………………. -0.2 2.2 0.6 3.4 Health & personal care stores ……… 0.2 1.3 -0.4 2.9 Gasoline stations …………………….. 0.8 -17.1 3.7 -18.8 Clothing & clothing accessories -1.5 1.9 1.4 4.1 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music 0.1 6.6 0.6 7.8 General merchandise stores………… 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.3 Department stores (ex. L.D.)………. -0.6 -1.7 1.9 -2.0 Miscellaneous store retailers ………. -0.2 2.9 -0.1 5.1 Nonstore retailers ……………………. -0.4 3.0 0.3 5.6 Food services & drinking places ….. -0.2 7.7 0.2 8.6 Economic Comparison If you are a Keynesian economist, that first column of numbers will look shockingly dismal.   If you are a normal human being with an ounce of common sense, you may come to the conclusion that spending money one does not have on junk one does not need is actually a good thing. Retail Sales vs. Last Month Retail Sales vs. Year Ago Subprime Auto Loans That last chart shows the real driver for retail sales: subprime auto loans. When that goes, it's likely all over. Was this the month? September Hike? Really? This report will undoubtedly shave a few tenths of a percent off second quarter GDP. It will also  raise questions about the strength of the economy. Unless we see a sharp economic rebound in the next two months, the Fed won't hike in September. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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