duminică, 13 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Judging the Obamacare Rollout Two Weeks Later; Signups Vs. Obama's 7 Million Goal; Unprecedented Experiments

Posted: 13 Oct 2013 07:34 PM PDT

Tomorrow marks the two-week anniversary of the Obamacare rollout. Inquiring minds may be wondering how things are going. The short answer is exceptionally poorly.

Hawaii is not even up and running yet due to software glitches. On day 10, some sites reported that a mere 51,000 signups had occurred. Other places said it was double.

Either way, the number of signups is pathetic, and the White House has not released its own total, preferring to give counts of 14 million "lookie-loos" who visited the website without signing up for anything.

Signs of Trouble From the Start

Please consider the New York Times report From the Start, Signs of Trouble at Health Portal
In March, Henry Chao, the chief digital architect for the Obama administration's new online insurance marketplace, told industry executives that he was deeply worried about the Web site's debut. "Let's just make sure it's not a third-world experience," he told them.

Two weeks after the rollout, few would say his hopes were realized.

For the past 12 days, a system costing more than $400 million and billed as a one-stop click-and-go hub for citizens seeking health insurance has thwarted the efforts of millions to simply log in. The growing national outcry has deeply embarrassed the White House, which has refused to say how many people have enrolled through the federal exchange.

Even some supporters of the Affordable Care Act worry that the flaws in the system, if not quickly fixed, could threaten the fiscal health of the insurance initiative, which depends on throngs of customers to spread the risk and keep prices low.

"These are not glitches," said an insurance executive who has participated in many conference calls on the federal exchange. Like many people interviewed for this article, the executive spoke on the condition of anonymity, saying he did not wish to alienate the federal officials with whom he works. "The extent of the problems is pretty enormous. At the end of our calls, people say, 'It's awful, just awful.' "

One person familiar with the system's development said that the project was now roughly 70 percent of the way toward operating properly, but that predictions varied on when the remaining 30 percent would be done. "I've heard as little as two weeks or as much as a couple of months," that person said. Others warned that the fixes themselves were creating new problems, and said that the full extent of the problems might not be known because so many consumers had been stymied at the first step in the application process.

Just a trickle of the 14.6 million people who have visited the federal exchange so far have managed to enroll in insurance plans, according to executives of major insurance companies who receive enrollment files from the government. And some of those enrollments are marred by mistakes. Insurance executives said the government had sent some enrollment files to the wrong insurer, confusing companies that have similar names but are in different states. Other files were unusable because crucial information was missing, they said. 

Many users of the federal exchange were stuck at square one. A New York Times researcher, for instance, managed to register at 6 a.m. on Oct. 1. But despite more than 40 attempts over the next 11 days, she was never able to log in. Her last attempts led her to a blank screen.
Signups Vs. Obama's 7 Million Goal

Obama is hoping for 7 million signups. How many does he have? The administration refuses to disclose the number, but 10 days into the program, leaked reports showed 51,000 applicants of which just over 1,000 were actually processed.

On October 11, Media Matters reported Fox Cherry-Picks Obamacare Data To Underestimate Enrollment By More Than Half.

It would help if the Obama released the actual numbers. While we are waiting, let's be generous and assume the numbers are triple or even quadruple initial estimates.

Would 200,000 be a success? Should Republicans simply have stepped back, waiting for this to implode?

Experts Warn of More Obamacare Glitches

Politico reports Tech Experts Wary of More Obamacare Glitches
The glitch-plagued Obamacare rollout might be just the beginning: A series of potential technology problems could thwart the Obama administration's goal of getting 7 million people enrolled in the new exchanges by the end of March.

Millions of people have already encountered error messages, delays, crashes and stuck accounts. Technology experts and Obamacare backers worry that each step ahead in the process — filling out applications, checking on subsidies and selecting a health insurance plan — creates a potential technology choke point. And that doesn't even count any additional chaos when people try to use their new health insurance come January.

"There is grave concern that many individuals who are intent on securing coverage by [Jan. 1] may not be able to do so by that date," said consultant Dan Schuyler, who helped design a health insurance exchange in Utah and is now the senior technology expert at Leavitt Partners. "There's a small window [the Department of Health and Human Services] has. If the problems persist another three or four weeks, those at the back of the line will not have coverage."

Some software engineers have suggested that the consumer end of the website, designed by one contractor, is not "talking to" the back end of the website, developed by a different company.

Diagnostic tools in Web browsers have identified coding issues that may be complicating account creation. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the administration is considering an overhaul of the registration system this weekend to allow people to browse health plan options without first creating an account. The paper said the tech experts are focused on a bottleneck where a flood of data meets an Oracle software component involved in identification verification.

There's particular worry about that tax credit calculation, which determines how much of the premium people have to pay.

"If we are already running into issues at the user account stage, we're going to run into a lot more issues when we get to the more complex operations at the [subsidy] eligibility determination," said Leavitt's Schuyler. "That's the reality. It's a very complex process, and I think it's going to get worse before it gets better."

HHS declined to comment on The Wall Street Journal report or to respond to POLITICO's specific questions about possible problems with subsidy determinations or the enrollment transfers to insurers, two of the areas that experts pointed to as of particular concern.

Part of the problem is that signing up for Obamacare coverage is far more complicated than the online transactions Americans are used to, like checking a bank balance or ordering a book. The Obamacare website must knit together platforms from five huge federal agencies — Homeland Security, the Social Security Administration, HHS, the Treasury Department and the Department of Justice — each of which marches to its own IT specifications. It must also interact with separate systems set up by the 15 states that built their own exchanges, plus all of those outside insurers.

It's an unprecedented experiment in federal information technology.
Fool's Mission

Requiring five distinct government agencies to integrate IT functions, on a tight time schedule, with something as complicated as Obamacare was a fool's mission from the beginning.

Unprecedented Experiment

But Obamacare is unprecedented in more ways than one. And the early prognosis looks as bad from a technological standpoint as it does from an economic standpoint.

Here's the key difference: Technology can be fixed eventually, but Obamacare itself can't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

sâmbătă, 12 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China's Exports "Surprisingly" Drop

Posted: 12 Oct 2013 03:20 PM PDT

Economists expected a 6% rise in Chinese exports. Instead, exports fell 0.3%. Please consider China's September export growth in surprise slide.
China's export growth fizzled in September to post a surprise fall as sales to Southeast Asia tumbled, data showed, a disappointing break to a recent run of indicators that had signaled its economy gaining strength.

China's exports dropped 0.3 percent in September from a year earlier, the Customs Administration said on Saturday, sharply confounding market expectations for a rise of 6 percent, and marking the worst performance in three months.

Imports fared better, rising 7.4 percent in September from a year ago, better than forecasts for a 7 percent increase, shrinking China's monthly trade surplus to $15.2 billion.

Analysts said weak exports underscored worries about flagging global demand, which may crumble further in coming months - especially in emerging markets - when tighter U.S. monetary policy pushes investors away from developing economies.

Indeed, the data showed Chinese exports to Southeast Asia, China's fastest-growing export market in the past year, dived to a 17-month low in September. Capital outflows from the region on bets that the U.S. central bank will cut its bond purchases had hit demand, said Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS in Hong Kong.

"Looking ahead, export data may be quite weak in the coming months," Kuijs said, adding that financial turmoil in several emerging markets had dragged on global demand.
Hardly Surprising

For reasons discussed many times on this blog, the news is hardly surprising. Moreover, with exports down and imports up, China's GDP is going to "surprise" economists on the downside as well.

For the real story on Chinese growth and why it will not be as strong as most analysts expect, here is some additional reading.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Silliness From Boehner Rejected by Obama; Cut Losses, End the Madness

Posted: 12 Oct 2013 09:46 AM PDT

Bloomberg reports Boehner Said Obama Rejected Fiscal Offer.
House Speaker John Boehner told fellow Republicans today that President Barack Obama rejected his latest fiscal offer, said Representative Raul Labrador, an Idaho Republican.

"The president rejected our deal," Labrador told reporters after leaving Republicans' closed-door meeting in Washington.

House Republican leaders' plan would extend U.S. borrowing authority to Nov. 22 from Oct. 17 and would make some changes to Obama's health-care law, structured in a way that could meet the political needs of each side to claim success.
The Deal

  1. Boehner wants to end a tax on medical devices
  2. Extend the debt ceiling limit to November 22

Why bother? Does anyone think an agreement of substance can be hammered out by November 22.

Amusingly, Boehner's proposal increases the deficit by $32 billion.

So much for fiscal prudence.

I still expect six Senate Republicans to pass a clean measure and send it to the House where it would pass if Boehner allowed a vote.

Cut Losses, End the Madness
Republicans should just concede and allow a vote to end the shutdown without conditions, Representative Peter King, a New York Republican, said in an interview yesterday.

"We should cut our losses and get it over with," he said. "It's madness to keep the government closed any longer."
As I mentioned before, the risk to Boehner, is House members use a discharge petition to force a vote. There are close to 30 Republicans willing to extend the debt ceiling, and the measure only needs about 17 to pass.

As it stands, Republicans do not want to overrule Boehner via discharge petition to force the vote. If the Senate passes a clean bill, pressure on Boehner will be intense.

I strongly support a balanced budget, reduced spending, and other things Republicans want, but the battle is not going to be won this way.

In case you missed it, please consider Pragmatic Look at the Debt Ceiling Debate; Who Broke Washington?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Congrats, your video's now on YouTube!

                                             
Way to go, Mihai T!
Your video's now on YouTube.
Receptie Cora
Want to spread the word about your newest video? Share your video

Seth's Blog : Is Google jumping the shark?

 

Is Google jumping the shark?

Ron Howard explained that while they were shooting the notorious episode where Fonzie jumped the shark, he knew the show had turned a corner. In the case of Happy Days, the corner was the chasing of ratings at the cost of integrity. In the case of corporations, the corner is usually the chasing of profit at the expense of the original mission.

These places don't run out of creativity. You don't jump the shark because you're empty, you do it because there's pressure to be greedy.

Google has been found to have hacked and stolen user data, circumventing privacy settings. They've recently announced that without asking first or sharing the upside, they may be selling the names and faces of people who use Google + to advertisers, to be included in endorsement ads. People expressing themselves online might soon find themselves starring in ads as unpaid, unwilling endorsers.

How does this happen? Public companies almost inevitably seek to grow profits faster than expected, which means beyond the organic growth that comes from doing what made them great in the first place. In order to gain that profit, it's typical to hire people and reward them for measuring and increasing profits, even at the expense of what the company originally set out to do.

Every company at a certain stage ends up with two sorts of employees... some that work hard to improve the experience and value for the original customers, and some that tear down that experience and value in order to please shareholders in the short run.

It's not surprising, but it's sad.

The irony here is that in the long run, what the advertisers are telling companies like Google they want isn't what is going to build it into an even better company (or even help the advertisers) in the long run.

Advertisers often seem to want pitchmen spraying perfume at every person who walks into the store, inserts stuffed into every periodical, pop up ads, complete data on every individual they target and the ability to spam at will. Great media companies fight back on all of these intrusions, because they know that what actually works is genuine connection built around remarkable products and services.

       

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

vineri, 11 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Dark Vision for Jobs: Jobless Future? Is It Different This Time?

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 11:50 AM PDT

Moments ago, I responded to a reader James from the UK regarding automation on farms. James commented that he only need one laborer where decades ago it took 25 men to do the same job.

James asked "If we displace 90% of the workforce in the next 100 years - and we could well exceed this, given rapidly increasing levels of automation (with humanoid robots becoming commonplace in this time-frame)  - how will the aggregate consumer afford to consume the average product?  The level of work loss seems likely to exceed the level of new product development."

My Reply to James

History suggests innovation will at some point create more jobs.

We have lost jobs on farms but we gained them on the assembly line. We lost jobs on the assembly line and gained them on the internet. We lost jobs on the internet and ....

And I don't know what's next.
I suspect something with energy but I do not know.

If nothing comes, I expect war.

Dark Vision For Jobs

Just as soon as I replied to James, I noticed another email on the same subject. Reader Andrew asked me to comment on the ComputerWorld article Gartner's Dark Vision for Tech, Jobs.
Science fiction writers have long told of great upheaval as machines replace people. Now, so is research firm Gartner. The difference is that Gartner, which provides technology advice to many of the world's largest companies, is putting in dates and recommending immediate courses of action.

The job impacts from innovation are arriving rapidly, according to Gartner. Unemployment, now at about 8%, will get worse. Occupy Wall Street-type protests will arrive as early as next year as machines increasingly replace middle-class workers in high cost, specialized jobs. In businesses, CIOs in particular, will face quandaries as they confront the social impact of their actions.

Machines have been replacing people since the agricultural revolution, so what's new here?

In previous technological leaps, workers could train for a better job and achieve an improvement in their standard of living. But the "Digital Industrial Revolution," as the analyst firm terms it, is attacking jobs at all levels, not just the lower rung. Smart machines, for example, can automate tasks to the point where they become self-learning systems.

Smart machines "are diagnosing cancer, they are prescribing cancer treatments," said Kenneth Brandt, a Gartner analyst. These machines "can even deliver [treatment] to the room of the patient."

Gartner sees all kinds of jobs being affected: Transportation systems, construction work, mining warehousing, health care, to name a few. With IT costs at 4% of sales for all industries, there's very little left to cut in IT, but there is a great opportunity to cut labor.

The companies on the leading edge of this trend include Amazon, which spent $775 million last year to acquire Kiva Systems, a company that makes robots used in warehouses. Google is also on the forefront, with its effort to develop driverless cars. Gartner applies a broader template, and says that the jobs most susceptible to machine replacement involve a range of back-office functions, including transactions, specialization, objectivity, high control, high scale, compliance and science.

This shift will affect employment, said Brandt, at Gartner's Symposium ITxpo. "We believe there will be persistent and higher unemployment."
Is It Different This Time?

Is it different this time? Is Gartner right? Or is innovation-history right?

I have commented numerous times, as early as 2009, if not before, to expect "structurally high unemployment for a decade".

Nonetheless, I have been generally optimistic over longer periods of time. History suggests some innovation will create jobs.

Is innovation-history right? Even if so, will jobs arrive in time? If not, war-history suggests a far darker view.

Are the optimists or the pessimists correct?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Canadian Reader Comments on Outsourcing, Automation and Ten "Real" Problems With the US Economy

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 10:28 AM PDT

In Ten "Real" Problems With the US Economy I took a look at complaints by Paul Craig Roberts that outsourcing was the "real" problem behind the crisis.

I dismissed Roberts' claim, while listing ten real problems, only one of which (warmongering) noted by Roberts.

Ten Real Problems

  1. Fractional Reserve Lending
  2. The Fed
  3. Lack of a gold standard
  4. Deficit Spending
  5. Public unions
  6. Davis Bacon and prevailing wage laws drive up costs
  7. Disability fraud
  8. Warmongering
  9. Politicians get into bed with corporations, unions, and crony constituents
  10. Lack of incentives to hold down costs on medicare, food stamps, and entitlements

I stated "If you fix the first four or five, most of the rest of the problems will be fixed automatically."

Comments From a Canadian Reader

Reader Martin, from Canada, thought I should have emphasized one of the points I made about outsourcing. Martin writes ...
Hi Mish,

I am a bit addicted to your Blog, and love your different points of view, so thank you.

Sometimes you make some small points/comments that actually need to be in bold, I found this comment by you particularly interesting:

"As for the loss of manufacturing jobs, I would point out that even China is losing them - to automation."

You are very right! A very close friend of mine designs systems and programs automation (robotics) for a large electronic manufacturer headquartered here in Toronto, Canada. I told him that he chose a great line of work based on what I have read on your Blog. They also have manufacturing and contracts with companies in China. Recently on one of his trips to China he visited one of these plants and found it was totally automated (they build components for solar panels, which are then sent to Canada to be "built-in Canada", which is another story altogether). He was amazed that in China of all places with all of their "cheap labour" they would automate an entire plant! While going over the design and systems he worked closely with the owners, they told him that true labour costs were growing exponentially and they wanted to get a head of the curve. Well turns out more and more of these plant owners are going this way, a true sign of the future. 
It's also very neat to see that these entrepreneurial Chinese are using contracts with big western companies to gain access to experienced manufacturing process and talent, pretty smart if you ask me.

Cheers,
Martin
Thanks Martin. Outsourcing is a scapegoat for the real problems I mentioned.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Life Before Kids vs Life After Kids

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 07:10 PM PDT
















Facebook profile photo, before kids



After kids



Concerts, before kids



After kids



Meeting up with friends, before kids







Charity, before kids



After kids



Getting into clubs, before kids



After kids



Playing guitar, before kids



After kids



Your purse, before kids



After kids



Grocery shopping, before kids



After kids



Who calls you daddy, before kids



After kids



Your partner in crime, before kids



After kids



Road trips, before kids



After kids



Sex, before kids



After kids



Your cat, before kids



After kids



5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday

5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday


5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 10 Oct 2013 04:10 PM PDT

Posted by Aleyda

Many companies that wish to market to international audiences make the mistake of simply translating their content and redirecting users, not realizing that their standard messages won't always resonate with other cultures. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Aleyda Solis guides us through five things we all need to keep in mind as we think about how to establish an international SEO process.

Note: In the spirit of international SEO, this Whiteboard Friday was also recorded in Spanish. If you'd like to watch that version instead, you can find it on Aleyda's site.

Nota: Dentro del espíritu del SEO Internacional, este "Whiteboard Friday" también fue filmado en Español. Si deseas ver esta versión, puedes encontrarla en el sitio de Aleyda.

For reference, here's a still of this weeks' whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Hello Moz fans. It's a pleasure to be here today. I am here to talk a little about international SEO, five dos and don'ts that I see happening all the time. I would like to share them with you as an extension of my MozCon presentation about this topic.

The first one is to identify all the resources for your international SEO process from the beginning. This is very, very important that you advise your client, even if it's not a pure SEO type of thing to do, or maybe some of the aspects that they need to take into consideration, not necessarily from an SEO perspective, it is important that you are a consultant for him. You say, "Hey, please be aware that in order to go international, at some point you will need native support. You will need to reply to your clients in the appropriate language. You will also need to be mindful about international deliveries if these are tangible products to be sent; the pricing, the currency, language, cultural factors, regionality factors. If it is language targeting, country targeting... all of these aspects are very, very important. Make sure that these are aligned with the website goal, and if at some point growth is needed, how this is going to grow.

All of these alternative and additional aspects that are not necessarily purely SEO, it's very, very important that you advise your client so he is aware, because at the end, these can also be factors that might affect your work. You want this to be successful of course.

The second one is to plan the growth of your international web presence from the start. Again, it is very important that you identify where your profitable markets would be at the beginning, and where it's better to start from a profit perspective. If you are going to target a specific country because there is enough search volume going on there about your services or products, or if there are not enough, then you will first target all of the language, which is specific landing pages maybe for some countries to test a little bit the market, but not with a full international website version for each one of the countries.

It is very important that you set this very well from the beginning and you are also aware of how you are going to evolve and migrate from one to another. Take into consideration also the pros and cons and the different alternatives from international web structure that I shared through my MozCon presentation. You can check on my slides, and I have also written about them before. You can see I have international SEO checklist that I published in the Moz Blog. You can also check out also in the SEER blog I have already written about international SEO strategy.

You can check the pros and cons of these different alternatives, like ccTLDs, subdirectories, subdomains. Verify if it is not possible, for example, to start with a ccTLD for a specific country, you need to start with a subdirectory, and then see how you are going to evolve from one to the other and how we are going to treat each language or each country so that they can coexist very well, if at some point you are country targeting and language targeting at the same time. These types of things are little things, but they are things that will keep your international web structure clean, consistent, and you will not face issues to growth in the future.

The third one is do not assume the behavior and preferences of your international markets and audience in general. Seasons can be different, the seasonality, the behavior of the users. Do not assume that the top products that you have for your current markets are going to be the top products necessarily for these other markets. Do full keyword research and behavior research. Research your competitors. Research how your audience behaves and what are the types of content that they most like, the formats they consume, the top media. All of these different aspects are going to affect, at the end, your operations and how you are going to promote and publish your content there and connect with this audience. At the end this is what you want. The final goal is to connect, to convert, to get benefits of course. Please be mindful of this. Do not assume anything. Never assume, even if it is an audience that speaks your same language, we wrongly assume that they will behave the same. No, no. Please verify this with all the trends, seasonality specifically, pricing models. All of this very important.

Also, avoid automatic content translations and redirects. If someone comes from Spain, do not automatically redirect the user to your Spanish version, for example. It is better to suggest. Suggest and tell them, "Hey, we have a version that might be more suitable for you." Do not do it in an interstitial or an intrusive way, but in a friendly way. Take a look at how Amazon does it. I also shared an example in my MozCon presentation. In a very friendly way you can alert your user that there might be a better suited version for them. You are friendly with your users and friendly with search engines. You also promote your international versions, because at the end you also want to make the most out of them if you have them, of course.

The same with content. I have seen too many websites where they have just gone to Google and translated, copied and pasted the content and published it on their website. This needs to be done by a real person, a translator, a native person. You can say, "Okay, this costs too much. I am not able to do this." If you start little by little and if you focus on the markets and the products, the most important ones and prioritize them, you do not need to go with an international web version that is a million pages at the beginning. You want to start little by little. It is better that you start and prioritize your international web version little by little, not with a huge amount of content, but good quality, localized content that really connects with the right audience.

The fifth one is measure each international web presence independently, but understand the interaction of each one of them. This is very, very important because you want to set an independent profile from Google Webmaster Tools or the other tools, the search engine that you are targeting and you are working with for the country that you are targeting. So from Webmaster Tools presence, each version should have their own profile there. Also with Google Analytics or your analytical software, each presence needs to have their own profile, again if you are tracking rankings of course.

So it is good that you segment a lot so you are able to verify and validate what the behavior of your international users is per presence and to be able to make the appropriate decisions and validate much better. But at the same time it is good if you can keep also web analytics an overall profile. You can also set the multi-domain tracking so that you can see what the behavior is from one presence to another. If at some point, one user arrived to another and ended up in another version, you can also see this and you can understand these are not two independent visits, but really one visitor going from one site to another.

All of this information I am pretty sure will be valuable. If there's any other type of question that you have about international SEO, please let me know. Please leave a comment. I would love to be able to help. Also, take a look at the InternationalSEOmap.com website that I published from my MozCon presentation. Take a look at the slides and please let me know if you have any questions. Muchas gracias.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!