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luni, 6 octombrie 2014

Thank You for 10 Incredible Years

Posted: 05 Oct 2014 05:15 PM PDT

Below are letters written to you all (yes, you!) from both Rand and Sarah.

The first is from Rand:

Dear Moz Community,

Wow. Ten years. It's been an incredible ride. Through the ups and downs (and there have been plenty of both), there haven't been many constants in my life—my wife, Seattle, and, strangely enough—you, the Moz community. From my first days on the blog and in the forums of the SEO world, when I was deeply in debt and had no idea how to dig my way out, to the incredible rush of 2007 and 2012 when we raised funding rounds and felt like the sky was the limit, you've been there. And in the darkest hours of the past decade, when I've felt the most alone, guilty, and insecure, you've been there, too.

I get to see many of you in person—at conferences and events around the world. But I get to see you right here on the web, too—on Twitter, in the comments, through my email. Your support, empathy, and unwavering belief that Moz could and would do great things has been a beacon of hope and a challenge that I constantly strive to meet.

A decade is a long time. Few things in our lives or in the world last that long—the average tech startup doesn't quite make two years. I'm honored and humbled that you've stuck with us all that time, and I promise that in the decade ahead, Moz will deliver more and better work in the areas you need most. We believe in making data that others hide transparent and accessible. We believe in delivering remarkable education and software that everyone can afford. We believe that all of this can be done not just without evil, but with real generosity of spirit and action.

Thank you for the ten remarkable years of warmth, friendship, and support. We absolutely couldn't have done it without you, nor can we take the next steps without your help. I hope you'll keep holding us to high standards, and telling us when we've met your expectations and when we've let you down.

With deep appreciation,

Rand Fishkin
Co-founder & individual contributor
Moz

The second letter is from Moz's CEO, and one of the company's earliest employees, Sarah Bird:

Dear Moz Community,

Moz is the steward of this community, but it's owned by everyone who contributes with posts, comments, shares, and visits. Many, many people have passed through the community, leaving an indelible mark. I get emotional remembering the humor and generosity of Goodnewscowboy. I'm grateful and relieved that Dana Lookadoo is still fighting the good fight. I'm STILL impressed with the solid that Rhea Drysdale did the SEO community when she fought a nasty trademark battle on the community's behalf. I salute all of the folks, and there have been many, who've been a force for good in my life and helped us all to take our game to the next level.

Our community is dynamic, but always TAGFEE. In fact, I've come to believe it is the truest expression of TAGFEE. People share openly and without a promise of getting anything in return (TAG). It's a positive and supportive environment to become your best professional self (FEE). I'm proud that the Moz community is one of the few places on the web I'm not afraid to read the comments; I seek them out because they are consistently insightful and stimulating.

Thank you to those who paused here for a bit before continuing on your journeys, and for those who have stuck with us. There are people out there RIGHT NOW who haven't yet discovered the Moz community, and who are going to help us keep it amazing in the future. I can't wait to meet them. Without all of you, there is nothing here.

It's been 10 years, but there is still a lot to learn and a lot to teach. It still feels like day one. The pace of innovation has increased, and the stakes are higher. We strive to share, adapt, and become the most TAGFEE and impactful professionals we can be. Thank you for creating a space to do that every day. Together, we dig deeper and go farther than would be possible without each other. Let's keep it going and growing for the next ten years.

Hugs and High Fives,

Sarah Bird
CEO
Moz

If you have any fun or interesting memories from the last 10 years, whether they're related to Moz, SEO, or whatever you think we might like to hear about (we're feeling awfully nostalgic), please share them in the comments below!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : Dumb down and scale up

Dumb down and scale up

Small businesses rule our economy, and each successful small businesses is expected to get bigger.

Many successful small businesses are easily scaled. The owner has created something that can be repeated, a product that can mass produced, a process that can be franchised. Scaling up serves more customers and benefits the founder.

But some businesses, maybe yours, are built around new decisions and new work on a regular basis. Those businesses are also under pressure to scale, and that might be a mistake.

To get bigger, the small business that's based on the insight, energy and passion of a few people might have to dumb down. It has to standardize, itemize and rationalize, so that it can hire people who care a little less, know a little less and work a little less, because, after all, they just work here.

Which means that in order to get bigger, the small businessperson sacrifices the very thing that brought in business in the first place.

What if getting bigger isn't the point? What if you merely got better?

It's entirely possible that you're a special snowflake, that your unique point of view and understanding and care are precisely what the market wants from you... if that's true, then hiring people to be almost-as-good-as-you isn't going to lead to more of what we seek. It just means that you're working harder than ever to cover for people who can't quite figure out how to be you.

An alternative: acknowledge your special sauce and hire people only when they help you do what you do best and uniquely. Don't worry about replicating yourself, focus instead on leveraging yourself.

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duminică, 5 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Air Strikes on Isis Not Working; What's Next?

Posted: 05 Oct 2014 07:27 PM PDT

Isis fighters are closing in on the city of Kobani near the Turkish border. ISIS evades air strikes simply by scattering when planes approach.

The Guardian reports Air Strikes Against Isis are not Working, say Syrian Kurds.

US-led air strikes in northern Syria have failed to interrupt the advance of Islamic State (Isis) fighters closing in on a key city on the Turkish border, raising questions about the western strategy for defeating the jihadi movement.

Almost two weeks after the Pentagon extended its aerial campaign from Iraq to neighbouring Syria in an attempt to take on Isis militants in their desert strongholds, Kurdish fighters said the bombing campaign was having little impact in driving them back.

Isis units have edged to within two kilometres of the centre of Kobani, according to Kurds fighting a rearguard action inside the city. The jihadis, who this weekend generated further outrage with the murder of the British hostage Alan Henning, are simply too numerous to be cowed by the air assault by US fighter jets, the Kurds say.

"Air strikes alone are really not enough to defeat Isis in Kobani," said Idris Nassan, a senior spokesman for the Kurdish fighters desperately trying to defend the important strategic redoubt from the advancing militants. "They are besieging the city on three sides, and fighter jets simply cannot hit each and every Isis fighter on the ground."

He said Isis had adapted its tactics to military strikes from the air. "Each time a jet approaches, they leave their open positions, they scatter and hide. What we really need is ground support. We need heavy weapons and ammunition in order to fend them off and defeat them."

What's Next?

Most likely the US will drop more and more bombs, with 20% of the bombs finding the right targets, 40% the wrong targets, and the remaining 40% doing nothing. This will be labeled as a "success".

However, many so-called moderates will get fed up with US action and join ISIS.

Then, after another beheading or two, Obama will send in more ground troops and weapons, but purportedly only for training and aiding moderates who will take the weapons and training in directions contrary to the stated intentions.

My Take

The US and UK should issue a travel advisory labeled "beheadings happen". The advisory should tell everyone, including journalists to get the hell out of the region and if they don't, they are on their own.

Tax dollars should not go to protect those who voluntarily put themselves in harm's way. This is not a disparaging comment on journalists, who choose to do what they do. I commend them for wanting to get the story out.

Rather, my comments are a simple practical matter: The US has no obligation to protect anyone who voluntarily puts themselves in harm's way outside the US.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

800 Towns in Catalonia Pledge Support for Independence Referendum; Humpty Dumpty Chides Artur Mas

Posted: 05 Oct 2014 12:02 PM PDT

Inquiring minds may be interested in the latest events in Europe on an otherwise slow news weekend. Via translation from El Singular, 800 Towns in Catalonia Openly Pledge Support for Independence Referendum.

This morning, more than 800 mayors delivered to Catalan president Mas certificates in support of the November 9 referendum for Independence. The mayors represent 96% of the Catalan municipalities. A total of 920 councils who have so far voted in favor of N-9, but some mayors did not want to participate in the event.

Since 1918 there has not been a similar concentration of mayors in Catalonia.

The Mayor of Barcelona, Xavier Trias, thanked the 800 mayors who approved the motion to defend the right to decide.

"It is our responsibility to fulfill the legitimate mandate coming from all over Catalonia," emphasized Trias and asked the mayors to do everything they can to ensure Catalans have the right to vote on November 9.

71% of Catalans Support Right to Vote

The Wall Street Journal notes overwhelming support for the referendum.

A poll taken last week by the regional government's Center of Opinion Studies found 71% of Catalans favored the Nov. 9 referendum.

Catalan separatists say Spain's central government doesn't respect their language and culture, or give them a fair return on their taxes. Spanish leaders say Catalonia has plenty of autonomy, and that the Catalan political class just needs to put its house in order.

Without a doubt the number would be far higher than 71% if Spain's government had not declared the vote illegal.

Catalonia Autonomy

Let's take a look at the region of Catalonia.

Statutes of Autonomy

In the Spanish Constitution of 1978 Catalonia, along with the Basque Country and Galicia, was defined as a "nationality". The same constitution gave Catalonia the automatic right to autonomy, which resulted in the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 1979.

Both the 1979 Statute of Autonomy and the current one, approved in 2006, state that "Catalonia, as a nationality, exercises its self-government constituted as an Autonomous Community in accordance with the Constitution and with the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia, which is its basic institutional law, always under the law in Spain".

The Preamble of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia states that the Parliament of Catalonia has defined Catalonia as a nation, but that "the Spanish Constitution recognizes Catalonia's national reality as a nationality". While the Statute was approved by and sanctioned by both the Catalan and Spanish parliaments, and later by referendum in Catalonia, it has been subject to a legal challenge by the surrounding autonomous regions of Aragon, Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community, as well as by the conservative People's Party.

Spain's Constitutional Court assessed the disputed articles and on 28 June 2010, issued its judgment on the principal allegation of unconstitutionality presented by the People's Party in 2006. The judgment granted clear passage to 182 articles of the 223 that make up the fundamental text. The court approved 73 of the 114 articles that the People's Party had contested, while declaring 14 articles unconstitutional in whole or in part and imposing a restrictive interpretation on 27 others.

The court accepted the specific provision that described Catalonia as a "nation", however ruled that it was a historical and cultural term with no legal weight, and that Spain remained the only nation recognized by the constitution.

Humpty Dumpty Chides Artur Mas

Catalonia is already a nation but the term has no "legal weight".

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty (Mariano Rajoy) said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.'

'The question is,' said Alice (Artur Mas) 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty (Mariano Rajoy), 'which is to be master - that's all.'

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Cassandra and Pollyanna

Cassandra and Pollyanna

You will often hear from people who will announce that it's all over, that this is the crisis that ends it, once and for all. The Cassandra sees the end of the road for the project or the brand or the culture. It's the end, now.

Cassandra is countered by the Pollyanna, who thinks everything is fine, will be fine and always is fine.

The thing is: failure almost always arrives in a whimper. It is almost always the result of missed opportunities, a series of bad choices and the rust that comes from things gradually getting worse.

Things don't usually explode. They melt.

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sâmbătă, 4 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Shifting Debts: The Gold Standard: Both Good and Necessary

Posted: 04 Oct 2014 12:55 PM PDT

In response to Reader Question on a Credit-Based Society: Can Interest Ever Be Repaid? I received an email from reader Keith Weiner at Monetary Metals.

Keith writes

Hi Mish,

I hope all is well.

I liked your reply to the reader question. I think it boils down to one thing. With fiat money, there is no extinguisher of debt. Debts are paid using dollars, but the dollar is itself a debt. The dollar is just a bite-sized piece of the Treasury bond. Paying a debt with a debt merely shifts it around.

The debt must rise exponentially, by at least the accrued interest, and more if the government wants what passes for growth.

The Gold Standard Institute is sponsoring an event in NYC on Nov 1. I will be talking about this problem, and numerous others that plague the dollar.

Would you be willing to share the link on your site? It's for a good cause that I think is near to your heart as well. :)

Thanks so much for whatever you can do.

Best Regards,
Keith

Keith is one of the good guys. If you are in the area, the conference should be well worth attending.

Date: November 1, 2014
Time: 1:00 to 5:00pm on
Place: The 3 West Club, Midtown Manhattan
Cost: $50 (click here to register)

Conference Link: The Gold Standard: Both Good and Necessary.

You are cordially invited to join us for a presentation of ideas you won't get anywhere else. The gold standard is the monetary system of the free market—of capitalism. Advocates of the gold standard should make the clear connection from gold to freedom, and from freedom to self-interest. Advocates of freedom should understand the destruction wrought by the dollar, and it's not simply rising prices.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Learning from the State Department

Learning from the State Department

Ambassadors do two things that are really difficult for most people within organizations:

1. They listen and send the notes up the chain. They're at the front line, and they listen to what's happening and figure out how to get the right people back home to hear what's being said.

2. They apologize. Not for things they did wrong, but for things that others did wrong.

If you work for a company that you don't own, if you interact with customers, you're a brand ambassador. The person who runs the cash register or answers the phone or makes sales calls is a brand ambassador, in the world on behalf of the amorphous brand, whatever that is.

I recently bought a few shirts from a big chain. They left the anti-theft tags on the shirts, which of course meant a drive and a hassle to go back to a different store in the chain to get them taken off.

Challenge number one is that the disrespected, overworked cashier will never be asked about what she learned from her interaction with me. There's nothing in place for information to flow.

And challenge number two is that she steadfastly refused to apologize for the hassle. It wasn't her fault, she knew, so what was there to apologize for?

We invented ambassadors because nothing can replace face to face interaction, particularly when messages travel sometimes quite slowly through complex organizations. Just like now.

This seems obvious, and it is, until you realize that organizations make two huge mistakes:

A. They don't hire brand ambassadors, they hire clerks and bureaucrats, and treat them and pay them accordingly.

and

B. They don't manage and lead brand ambassadors, don't measure and reward and create a cadre of people who can listen for the brand and speak for the brand.

Would you send the clerk on aisle 7 to speak to a head of state or vital partner on behalf of your company? Because that's what he's doing right now.

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vineri, 3 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

What Do Treasury Yields Say About Job Expectations, Inflation Expectations, and the Recovery?

Posted: 03 Oct 2014 11:29 AM PDT

Curve Watcher's Anonymous notes some interesting reactions in the treasury bond market following a string of good job reports.

Today the jobs numbers once again beat expectations: Nonfarm Payrolls Rose by 248,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%.

In seven out of the last eight months, jobs rose by over 200,000. Last month was the exception, but even then, the initial job report was revised up 69,000 to +180,000.

In light of such purportedly strong data, especially with the Fed tapering ending this month and expectations across the board of fed hikes, yield on the long bond should be rising.

The yield curve also should be steepening, at least if one believes in the recovery. Let's take a look to see what is actually happening.

30-Year Treasury Yield

Note: The above chart is off by a factor of 10. At the time I snapped that chart, the 30-year treasury yield was 3.143%

Yield on the 30-year long bond shot up on the job report but is now in the red for the day. This is not what one would expect following a strong jobs report.

Nonetheless, one day does not prove much. Let's take a look at the 5-year and 30-year treasuries over time.

30-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Since 2010

click on any chart for sharper image

The long-term trend since 2010 has been a gentle flattening of the curves.

Moreover, since the beginning of the year the spread between 30-year and 5-year treasuries has decreased significantly as the following chart shows in detail.

Treasury Spread 30-Year Minus 5-Year

The above chart shows weekly closes. The last data point is from September 26.

At the end of the day, the spread will be a bit lower than shown above. I currently have the spread at 1.396 (3.133 on the 30-year minus 1.737 on the 5-year), down about 10 basis points this week.

Instead of the curve steepening as one would expect in a recovery, the 5-30 spread curve has been declining since hitting a peak of 3.0 in November of 2010.

Conclusion

The bond market does not think much of an ongoing recovery or future price inflation prospects, and neither do I.

By the way, I occasionally get asked "Who is Curve Watcher's Anonymous?" The answer is me.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nonfarm Payrolls 248K; Unemployment 5.9%; Employed +232K; Labor Force -97K

Posted: 03 Oct 2014 08:47 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The payroll survey shows a net gain of 248,000 jobs vs. an expectation of 215,000 jobs. Last month was revised up by 69,000 to 180,000. The six-month string of plus 200,000 jobs remains broken.

Last month the household survey had a gain in employment of only 16,000. That number was not revised up.

This month the household survey shows a respectable gain of 232,000, pretty much in line with the establishment survey.

Nonetheless the household survey over the past six months has been much weaker than the establishment survey. One or the other is apt for some serious revisions.

The labor force fell by 97,000. Those not in the labor force increased by 315,000. This follows last month's increase of those not in the labor force of 268,000.

The civilian labor force rose by 217,000. It would take that increase in employment to hold the unemployment rate steady.

Thus, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% primarily on the basis of people dropping out of the labor force.

All things considered, this was a pretty strong report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +248,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +232,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -329,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: -174,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: +35,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.9% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 12.0% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +217,000
Civilian Labor Force: -97,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +315,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.7 - Household Survey

Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
In the past year the working-age population rose by 2,278,000.
In the last year the labor force rose by 389,000.
In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,889,000
In the past year, the number of people employed rose by 2,330,000 (an average of 194,1677 a month)

Please note that over the course of the last year, the working-age population rose by more than the number of people employed. In normal times, the unemployment rate would have gone up slightly. Instead, the unemployment rate fell from 7.2% to 5.9%.

Over 100% of the decline in unemployment in the past year is due to people dropping out of the labor force, rather than strength in employment!

September 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 248,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment January 2003 - September 2014

click on chart for sharper image

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose by 0.1 hours to 34.6 hours. This was the first increase in seven months. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees also rose by 0.1 hours to at 33.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers was flat at $20.67. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees was flat at $20.46.

Last month numbers appear to have been revised lower by $0.01 as last month I reported production and non-supervisory private at $20.68 and service-providing at $20.47.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I keep this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 5.9%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 11.8.0%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force over the past several years, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%. Some of those dropping out genuinely retired. However, millions retired involuntarily. That is, they needed to retire and collect social security because they had no job and no income. Such folks are no longer in the labor force even if they want a job. The falling unemployment rate is very deceiving, painting a picture of improvement that simply does not exist.

A gallup survey on the economy better reflects how the average Joe feels: 38% Think Economy Getting Better, 56% Say Worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 6 octombrie 2014

Thank You for 10 Incredible Years

Thank You for 10 Incredible Years

Seth's Blog : Dumb down and scale up

Dumb down and scale up

More Recent Articles

duminică, 5 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Cassandra and Pollyanna

Cassandra and Pollyanna

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 4 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Learning from the State Department

Learning from the State Department

More Recent Articles

vineri, 3 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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