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duminică, 17 mai 2015
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sâmbătă, 16 mai 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Cars of the Future, Today: a Flying Car and a Self-Balancing Two-Wheeled Car Posted: 16 May 2015 09:59 AM PDT The pace of technological advancement accelerates every year. Here are two car prototypes that highlight the advancement. C-1 Electric Two-Wheeled Car Please consider the C1, a Self-Balancing, Two-Wheeled Car invented by Daniel Kim, founder of Lit Motors.  Motorcycles make more sense for single-passenger trips, but they are more dangerous to operate than cars, expose riders to the elements, and require skill to keep upright. Kim, a 35-year-old who wears jeans and a black t-shirt, leads the way to the company's prototype solution: the all-electric C-1. It has two wheels, like a motorcycle, but a steel and composite outer body, like a car. He invites a visitor to sit inside the C-1 and sway from side to side. The vehicle, emitting a steady hum, stays upright. No kickstand props it up; no third wheel adds stability. "When was the last time you balanced on a motorcycle at zero miles an hour?" Kim rhetorically asks. "Never."C-1 Schematic  AeroMobil Next consider the car I want, the AeroMobile. It's a car that flies.  AeroMobile Video Link if video does not play: AeroMobile. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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Seth's Blog : How to go faster
How to go faster
How do you get to market faster the competition? How do you become more efficient without violating the laws of physics? How do you save time, money and frustration?
It all comes down to decision hygiene:
1. Make decisions faster. You rarely need more time. Mostly, you must merely choose to decide. The simple test: is more time needed to gather useful data, or is more time merely a way to postpone the decision?
2. Make decisions in the right order. Do the decisions with the most expensive and time-consuming dependencies first. Don't ask the boss to approve the photos once you're in galleys, and don't start driving until you've looked at the map.
3. Only make decisions once, unless new data gives you a profitable reason to change your mind.
4. Don't ask everyone to help you decide. Ask the people who will either improve the decision or who have input that will make it more likely you won't get vetoed later.
5. Triage decisions. Some decisions don't matter. Some decisions are so unimportant that they are trumped by speed. And a few decisions are worth focusing on.
You don't need a consultant or a lot of money to radically improve your speed to market. You will speed up once you're comfortable going faster.
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vineri, 15 mai 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Consumer Confidence Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate; Consumers Shock Economists
- Empire State Manufacturing Weaker Than Economists' Expectations
- Industrial Production, Down 5th Month, Weaker Than Economist Expectations
| Consumer Confidence Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate; Consumers Shock Economists Posted: 15 May 2015 10:04 AM PDT Consumer confidence is the third miss by economists in a single day. Please consider the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for Consumer Confidence.  Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.Missing the Boat Not only was the consensus outside the range of reading predictions, economists did not even get the leading sign correct. Economists expected an improvement from 101.3 to 103.0 but instead the index plunged 7.6%. For more details let's turn to the actual University of Michigan Survey. University of Michigan Preliminary Results May 2015  Comments by U of M Chief Economist Richard Curtin Confidence fell in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that there would be no quick and robust rebound following the dismal 1st quarter (even if the under performance was exaggerated by inadequate seasonal adjustments). The decline was widespread among all age and income subgroups as well as across all regions of the country. In contrast to last year's rapid 2nd quarter revival, this year the economy faces reduced production and employment from lower oil prices, falling exports, and rising imports from a stronger dollar. Although this was not the first time in recent years consumers have abandoned expectations for a faster recovery, the data nonetheless suggest that consumers have remained optimistic about their future personal finances and have maintained their buying plans at reasonably high levels. Overall, at this time the data are still consistent with a 3% growth rate in real personal consumption expenditures during 2015.Confidence Nonsense I believe that statement by Curtin is complete nonsense. Consumers have not maintained their buying plans, at least according to Fed surveys. Household Spending But what about household spending? Please check out my May 12 report Household Spending Growth Expectations Plunge; Recession Already Started? Household Spending Expectations  click on chart for sharper image I created the above chart with data from Fed does a Survey of Consumer Expectations Spending Analysis In spite of rising earnings and income estimates, "median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month" in the Fed's words. Recession Likely Underway I commented on sales in Dismal Retail Sales Numbers Suggest Recession Likely Underway. Economists were surprised by the dismal retail sales report this morning. That's not surprising because economists are nearly always surprised. The Bloomberg Consensus retail sales estimate was a rise of 0.2%, but sales came in at 0.0% and the details were ugly. Estimated Retail Sales The Census Department offers this Table of Retail Sales.  click on chart for sharper image Note the huge patch of negative numbers this month. At least people are still eating out and drinking more. Also note the negative numbers in the November 2014 through January 2015 column. Economists expected the decline in gasoline sales (down 7.2%) to translate into increased sales elsewhere. It didn't. I am scratching my head over Bloomberg's statement "consumer confidence may be strong ...". What the heck is Bloomberg talking about? Does Bloomberg even read its own numbers? Here is a snip from the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Level Report for April 2015, released on 4/28/2015. Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.The Fed is not looking at those numbers either. In the latest FOMC report the Fed specifically stated "consumer sentiment remains high". Autos Only Reason YoY Sales Are Positive  Autos are now the only thing keeping retail sales positive year-over-year. And auto sales are driven by subprime loans. How long is this party going to last? Who wants a car, needs a car, can afford a car, and can get a car loan? Retail Sales Flashbacks
Consumers Did What They Said In a huge shock to economists, consumers actually did what consumers said they would do rather than what economists models predicted. And economists still don't believe it. They are looking for 3% growth this year, whereas I think the US is in recession. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Empire State Manufacturing Weaker Than Economists' Expectations Posted: 15 May 2015 08:38 AM PDT The Empire State Manufacturing survey came in today weaker than the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate, but at least the economists got the leading +- sign correct. The first indication on May conditions in the manufacturing sector is soft, as indications have been all year. The Empire State index came in at 3.09, below what were already weak Econoday expectations for 5.00. Shipments look respectable at 14.94 but are way ahead of new orders, at only 3.85, and even further ahead of backlog orders which are in deep contraction at minus 11.46. Employment growth is down as is the 6-month outlook, both pointing to a lack of optimism.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Industrial Production, Down 5th Month, Weaker Than Economist Expectations Posted: 15 May 2015 08:12 AM PDT Industrial production came in at -0.3%, down for the fifth consecutive month below the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate.  Industrial production is stalling, down 0.3 percent in April for a 5th straight monthly contraction. Factories are cutting back with capacity utilization down 4 tenths to 78.2 percent. And the manufacturing component, which has been flat to negative all year, is unchanged. All these readings are at or near the Econoday low-side forecasts.Clean Sweep of Economists' Misses
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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