luni, 21 decembrie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The Gorgeous Contestants Of Miss Universe With And Without Makeup

Posted: 21 Dec 2015 05:47 PM PST

The contestants of the 2015 Miss Universe contest look drop dead gorgeous even without all the makeup.




















Keanu Reeves Drops Some Serious Wisdom On The World

Posted: 21 Dec 2015 02:41 PM PST

Here's Keanu Reeves with a nice little reminder that we all need to slow down and appreciate the world that we live in.


























Iconic Star Wars Characters Back In The Day And Today

Posted: 21 Dec 2015 02:31 PM PST

Star Wars has an iconic cast of characters. See how the actors that played them have aged over the years.

















Seth's Blog : Living in a high-stakes universe



Living in a high-stakes universe

One path to self-motivation is to catastrophize.

After all, if this is the big moment, if everything depends on what's going to happen next, of course you'll need to gear up, focus and drop everything. The stakes are so high...

This is ultimately corrosive. You're crying wolf with yourself.

Over time, the only way to keep up this motivation is to demonize the other, to treat the outside world as an enemy, lying in wait, eager for you to fail. 

And that makes it harder for you to enlist colleagues, because, of course, they can't possibly see the same drama you're seeing, because you're inventing it.

The drama stops helping and starts to undermine your best work.

They call it the emergency room for a reason. The rest of us work in the regular room, where emergencies are rare, not the norm, where goodwill is the default, where few things are actually a matter of life or death.

We're capable of doing great work without the drama. In fact, over time, the lack of drama can enable us to do great work.

       

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duminică, 20 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spanish Election: Two-party Dominance Ends; Rojoy's PP Party Fails to Win Majority; Vote Buying Spanish Style; Fragile Coalition Possibilities

Posted: 20 Dec 2015 03:42 PM PST

Spanish Election Results

Mariano Rajoy may be the first leader of a country to be re-elected having imposed harsh austerity measures, but he will either need to find a coalition partner, or form what is likely to be a fragile minority government.

There are 350 Seats in the Spanish legislature and the results look like this.

  • People's Party (Conservatives): 122 seats, 28% of vote
  • PSOE (Socialists): 93 seats, 22% of Vote
  • Podemos (Eurosceptic, Anti-Austerity Socialists): 69 seats, 20.5% of vote
  • Ciudadanos (Anti-corruption, nationalistic party): 28 seats, 14% of vote

This result complicates things greatly. Many expected PP and Ciudadanos would have enough seats form a majority. Ciudadanos had been polling above 20% with Podemos sinking.

Like PP, Ciudadanos is very much against the separatists in Catalonia, and very pro-euro.

But 122 + 28 does not come close to the 176 needed for an outright majority. The socialists and conservatives could form a government, but how stable would that be?

PSOE, Podemos, and Ciudadanos could in theory form a coalition but huge philosophical differences abound. Podemos is eurosceptic while Ciudadanos is very pro-Europe. In addition, Podemos is open to separatist elections and Ciudadanos would never go along.

A minority government with Rajoy remaining in power is possible but that might not be stable either.

Two-party Dominance Ends

The Guardian reports People's party wins Spanish election but without absolute majority.
The PP and Socialists earned a combined vote share of around 50%, compared to the 70-80% in combined votes in past general elections. "The two-party political system is over and we are entering a new era in our country," Podemos' Iñigo Errejón said on Sunday as results began rolling in.

Podemos did notably well in Catalonia, suggesting widespread approval for its campaign promise to hold a referendum on independence for the north-eastern region. Preliminary results suggested a coalition backed by Podemos and Barcelona en Comú was poised to take first place in the region.

In order to be able to govern for the next four years, the PP will have to rely on other parties, suggesting a protracted process of negotiations lies ahead for political leaders.

Several scenarios are possible. The PP could form a minority government, particularly since Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera said last week his party would abstain from a vote of confidence in order to allow the party with the most seats to govern. The scenario is a risky one for the PP, as a minority government could fall easily, triggering new elections.

"Reaching a deal between the Socialists, Ciudadanos and Podemos is not going to be straightforward ... but if the alternative is leaving the country without a government, the pressure will be on the parties," Federico Santi, a London-based analyst with the Eurasia Group, told the Associated Press.
Vote Buying Spanish Style
Rajoy, 60, remains the most popular option with Spaniards over the age of 55, buoyed in part by his party's consistent support for pensions. Even as his government was slashing spending for public wages, education and research, pensions were raised. Not only is this the demographic that is most likely to vote, it has also grown by more than a million people since the 2011 election, while those under the age of 34 years have dropped by almost a million.
Spain's pension promises are not sustainable of course, but getting reelected always takes precedence over everything else, including economic realities.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Why Does GDPNow Model Sometimes Move Counter to Economic Releases?

Posted: 20 Dec 2015 12:06 PM PST

I am sometimes puzzled as to why the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model moves counter to what one would normally expect following economic news releases.

For example, on December first, construction spending hit an 8-year high. On the same day the ISM was a huge disappointment.

I expected the net overall result of those to be a small net minus, with construction adding to GDP and ISM subtracting.

I commented on that idea in GDPNow Forecast for 4th Quarter Dips to 1.4% Following Weak ISM and Strong Construction Reports. Here are a few snips.
Construction Spending Beats Estimates

The consensus estimate for construction spending was +0.6% but the actual month-over-month reading was +1.0%.

Construction Contribution to GDP

As noted earlier today, this morning's ISM report was a disaster. (See Manufacturing ISM Contracts; Lowest Reading Since June 2009; Glimmers of Hope Extinguished). But the construction report looked good.

Combined with ISM spending, I would have expected the net result of today's reports to be an overall small minus.

Actual GDPNow Forecast Results were dramatically different.

GDPNow Forecast Sinks 0.4 Percentage Points to 1.4 Percent.

Construction Subtracts From GDP vs. Prior Estimate



Compared to the November 27 report that included new home sales, construction appears to have subtracted approximately 0.09 percentage points and ISM roughly another 0.31 percentage points. Other reports in between may have contributed but those should be the main factors.

I have a question into the Atlanta Fed regarding construction contribution to GDP.
My Question to Atlanta Fed
Construction Spending was up 1% month-over-month today. I would have expected this to add to your GDPNow forecast.

Instead it subtracted.

Bloomberg Econoday made this comment: "The housing data in this report are not only favorable but the pop higher in related permits, in data previously released with the housing starts & permits report, hints at further gains ahead. This report points to a solid fourth-quarter contribution from construction."

Instead it appears the construction report subtracted 0.09 vs. the prior estimate. Can you explain?

Thanks
Mish
Reply from Atlanta Fed

I received a reply from Patrick Higgins at the Atlanta Fed on December 8. I missed his reply as it somehow went into my spam bucket.

Higgins writes ...
Hi Mike,

This far away from the GDP release, the forecasts of nonresidential structures and residential investment depend importantly on an estimate of a dynamic activity factor very similar to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). As of December 1, the estimate of that factor for November (and the forecast for December) was heavily influenced by the ISM Manufacturing Index since there was very little data for November released at that point. Like the CFNAI, the dynamic factor has mean 0, standard deviation 1. As of the GDPNow release on Nov 25, the model had forecasted values for the dynamic factor of -0.06 for November and -0.05 for December (i.e. both were essentially 0, or trend). These changed to -0.72 for November and -0.31 December after the data on December 1. Since then, the estimates of the dynamic factors for November and December have returned close to their November 25 readings. You can see these values in row 5 of the tabs Residential and NonresStructures of the Model. You can also see how they feed into forecasts of the monthly data but clicking the formula bar for any of the teal shaded cells. For example, cell FV9 of tab Residential.

If you simply replace the December 1st estimates of the dynamic factor with the estimates as of last GDPNow release on November 25th, the December 1 nowcast for residential investment growth becomes 6.5% [instead of 4.5%] and the December 1 nowcast for nonresidential structures investment growth becomes -0.4% [instead of -1.1%]. So the nowcasts for these components depend importantly on the dynamic factor even though that is not a direct input into GDP. Once we get closer to the GDP release, the dynamic factor becomes less important as the model relies more heavily on actual released data.

Pat
Thanks Pat.

That may be a bit complicated for most to follow, but it provides a nice explanation as to why the GDPNow  model moves counter to what one might otherwise conclude on release of the data.

By the way, I have found the folks at the Atlanta Fed as well as the BLS very helpful in answering questions like these.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : The edges



The edges

Is the universe infinite?

If it's not, the first question a smart person will ask is, "so what happens at the edge?"

That's how we define things... by the moments where they begin and end, by their edges.

This clearly applies not just to the universe, but to every project and concept and institution in our lives.

What does your organization not do?

When does this promotion/product/service end?

What's it like to start? To end it?

Defining the edges of performance and the promises you make defines who you are and what you do.

We live in the middle but we understand at the edges.

       

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sâmbătă, 19 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Growth in Service PMI Shrinks Sharply

Posted: 19 Dec 2015 06:22 PM PST

On Friday, the PMI Flash Services reading registered growth that fell sharply, not only well below the Econoday Consensus estimate of 56.1, but also substantially below the lowest estimate of 55.8.
The services PMI is slowing sharply this month, to 53.7 vs 56.1 for the final November reading and vs 56.5 for the flash reading. This is the lowest reading in a year reflecting the slowest growth in new orders since January and a fifth straight month of contraction in backlog orders. Optimism over future growth is understandably down, reflecting what the report says is a subdued global outlook, election uncertainty and softer demand in the energy sector. Price readings remain subdued with inputs at their weakest pace since February. Despite weakness in orders and the downcast outlook, hiring is described as "resilient". Given weakness in global demand, the service economy is the nation's bread and butter and today's report, though only one data point, hints at slowing for the economy.
I tend not to report on the Markit readings for services, instead reporting on ISM readings. But this was sharp divergence. The next ISM services report will be interesting to watch.

If services contract, recession will be at hand.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

How Chicago "Works": Tax and Graft; Who Benefits?

Posted: 19 Dec 2015 02:28 PM PST

On October 28, the Chicago City Council passed the largest property-tax hike in modern city history by a vote of 36-14, approving Mayor Rahm Emanuel's 2016 budget proposal.

Taxpayers will have to fork over another $588 million property-tax hike to be phased in over the next four years.

Some businesses and taxpayers will simply flee, joining what now is best viewed as the "Great Illinois Exodus".

Taxpayers Lose, Who Wins?

Someone always benefits from these tax-and-spend schemes. Who is it?

The Illinois Policy Institute has the answer in Meet the politicians who stand to get rich off of Chicago's massive property-tax hike.
The Players

As the tax hikes hit Chicago families and businesses, a who's who of the state's political machine will continue to line their pockets off of a property-tax game in which their connections are priced at a premium.

Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Alderman Ed Burke both run law firms specializing in the lucrative field of Cook County property-tax appeals, one of the most inefficient, corrupt systems in urban politics. Illinois Senate President John Cullerton is a member of a large law firm that handles a range of issues, including property-tax law. The three have held political office in Illinois for a combined 126 years.

The Game

The property-tax-assessment process in Cook County is convoluted by design. But here's how it works in simple terms:

First, the Cook County Assessor's Office assesses the value of every property in the county. The value of any given property is reassessed once every three years. This "assessed value" is then used to calculate the property taxes owed by each property owner.

Property owners can then appeal that assessed value in a number of ways. They can file a request with the assessor asking for a reduction, appeal the valuation to the Cook County Board of Review, file a lawsuit in which a judge will decide the value, or the property owner and the Cook County State's Attorney will enter into a settlement agreement over the value.

Flawed property valuations and the process required to fix them are a cash cow for law firms, including those of Madigan, Burke and Cullerton, which know what strings to pull. These law firms handle the ways in which the assessed value of a property is appealed: the request with the assessor, the appeal to the Cook County Board of Review, and lawsuits.

The Cook County Board of Review – which exists solely to field appeals for assessments by the Cook County Assessor's Office – processed appeals for more than 400,000 properties in 2013.

What doesn't add up is nearly two-thirds of those appeals were successful: an astonishing number that reveals a faulty assessment process ripe for savvy attorneys.

Choose not to appeal your assessment and the government pockets the extra money. Choose to hire a politically connected law firm and that law firm typically pockets anywhere from 25 to 50 percent of the "winnings." And each reduction for a politically connected business means an increase in property taxes for those lacking the right political connections.

Investigative reporting from the Illinois News Network revealed Madigan's six-person firm, Madigan & Getzendanner, earned close to $10 million in tax refunds for its clients from April 2013 through April 2014. Madigan's spokesperson Steve Brown has said that the House speakers' law firm, which services mainly commercial clients, charges a flat fee for its services. The Chicago Sun-Times' Tim Novak broke the story in 2014 that Madigan's firm had saved Mesirow Financial Services $1.7 million dollars by slashing the valuation of its River North headquarters by 60 percent. Mesirow manages $300 million in state pension funds and employs Madigan's son, Andrew.

Every year from 2010 to 2014, Cook County Assessor and Democratic Party Chairman Joseph Berrios declared the building that housed Mesirow was worth at least $330 million. In each of those years, Madigan's law firm successfully contested that valuation to the tune of $5 million in tax breaks annually, according to Novak's research.

That's the game in a nutshell.
Other Winners

In addition to politically connected law firms specializing in tax appeals, the public unions benefit, and corrupt politicians who support tax hikes to buy votes from public unions also win.

The losers are the businesses and taxpayers in Illinois.

Great Illinois Exodus

In increasing numbers, residents and businesses have voted with their feet as noted in Get Me the Hell Out of Here.

For further discussion, please see ...

  1. What Happens When Public Unions Control Everything for Decades? (Hint: Look at Chicago and the State of Illinois)
  2.  
  3. Apocalypse Illinois: IOUs Projected to Hit $10.5 Billion, $163 Billion Total Accumulated Liabilities

Mike "Mish" Shedlock