Central Perk

luni, 8 septembrie 2014

Slide to the left:

10 million -- that's the number of jobs American businesses have added over the last 54 months, marking the longest streak of private-sector job growth in American history.

While there's still a lot more work to do, the economy has improved significantly since President Obama took office in 2009. Back then, the economy was shedding jobs by the hundreds of thousands, the housing market had hit rock bottom, and the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse.

But the President took action, and now -- thanks to the resilience of American workers and business men and women -- you can see the progress we've made in four key economic sectors that have helped make 10 million jobs possible.

Want to see exactly how far we've come since the Great Recession? Just slide to the left:

From breaking ground on new homes and building more cars, to selling more American products abroad and buying more at home, check out these interactive charts to see where we stood when President Obama took office and where we are now -- then share them with whoever needs to see it.

"These Are Some Special Stones"

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"These Are Some Special Stones"

As the last stop on his trip to Estonia and to the NATO Summit in Wales, President Obama visited the prehistoric monument Stonehenge on Friday -- and really enjoyed his time there.

"I would come here, and if it wasn't a monument, I'd sit on one of these rocks and I'd just watch the sunrise," the President said. "It would really cleanse your mind."

Watch President Obama's stroll around Stonehenge here:

Seth's Blog : Things well done (and the smartest Lt Gov candidate ever)

Things well done (and the smartest Lt Gov candidate ever)

The Overcast podcast app is my favorite. And this is my favorite podcast.

Chris Guillebeau's new book is a pleasure to read. And here are two insightful books on b2b consultative selling, one a classic, one new. And Rohan's blog is better than ever.

Tim Wu, perhaps the smartest person crazy enough to run for Lieutenant Governor of New York, wrote a book called The Master Switch that ought to be read by every person who cares about the future of the internet, even if you're not able to vote for him tomorrow.

These earplugs actually work. While it's not true that reading in bed will ruin your eyesight, it's pretty easy to set yourself up for fifty years of aural unhappiness in exchange for just a few too-loud experiences.

The Sprout is a simple, elegant, powerful way to listen to music that sounds better than you're used to...

Hover is my go-to for domains. They're humans. That says a lot.

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6 Things I Wish I Knew Before Using Optimizely

Posted: 07 Sep 2014 05:15 PM PDT

Posted by tallen1985

Diving into Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) for the first time can be a challenge. You are faced with a whole armoury of new tools, each containing a huge variety of features. Optimizely is one of those tools you will quickly encounter and through this post I'm going to cover 6 features I wish I had known from day one that have helped improve test performance/debugging and the ability to track results accurately.

1. You don't have to use the editor

The editor within Optimizely is a useful tool if you don't have much experience working with code. The editor should be used for making simple visual changes, such as changing an image, adjusting copy or making minor layout changes.

If you are looking to make changes that change the behaviour of the page rather than just straightforward visual changes, then the editor can become troublesome. In this case you should use the "Edit Code" feature at the foot of the editor.

For any large-scale changes to the site, such as completely redesigning the page, Optimizely should be used for traffic allocation and not editing pages. To do this:

1. Build a new version of the page outside of Optimizely

2. Upload the variation page to your site. Important: Ensure that the variation page is noindexed.

We now have two variations of our page:

www.myhomepage.com & www.myhomepage.com/variation1

3. Select the variation drop down menu and click Redirect to a new page

4. Enter the variation URL, apply the settings and save the experiment. You can now use Optimizely as an A/B test management tool to allocate traffic, exclude traffic/device types, and gather further test data.

If you do use the editor be aware of excess code

One problem to be aware of here is that each time you move or change an element Optimizely adds a new line of code. The variation code below actually repositions the h2 title four times.

Instead when using the editor we should make sure that we strip out any excess code. If you move and save a page element multiple times, open the <edit code> tab at the foot of the page and delete any excess code. For example, the following positions my h2 title in exactly the same position as before with three fewer lines of code. Over the course of multiple changes, this excess code can result in an increase of load time for Optimizely.

2. Enabling analytics tracking

Turning on analytics tracking seems obvious, right? In fact, why would we even need to turn it on in the first place, surely it would be defaulted to on?

Optimizely currently sets analytics tracking to the default option of off. As a result if you don't manually change the setting nothing will be getting reporting into your analytics platform of choice.

To turn on analytics tracking, simply open the settings in the top right corner from within the editor mode and select Analytics Integration.

Turn on the relevant analytics tracking. If you are using Google Analytics, then at this point you should assign a vacant custom variable slot (for Classic Analytics) or a vacant custom dimension (Universal Analytics) to the experiment.

Once the test is live, wait for a while (up to 24 hours), then check to be sure the data is reporting correctly within the custom segments.

3. Test your variations in a live environment

Before you set your test live, it's important that you test the new variation to ensure everything works as expected. To do this we need to see the test in a live environment while ensuring no customers see the test versions yet. I've suggested a couple of ways to do this below:

Query parameter targeting

Query parameter tracking is available on all accounts and is our preferred method for sharing live versions with clients, mainly because once set up, it is as simple as sharing a URL.

1. Click the audiences icon at the top of the page

2. Select create a new audience

3. Drag Query Parameters from the possible conditions and enter parameters of your choice.

4. Click Apply and save the experiment.

5. To view the experiment visit the test URL with query parameters added. In the above example the URL would be: http://www.distilled.net?test=variation

Cookie targeting

1. Open the browser and create a bookmark on any page

2. Edit the bookmark and change both properties to:

a) Name: Set A Test Cookie

b)URL: The following Javascript code:

<em>javascript:(function(){ var hostname = window.location.hostname; var parts = hostname.split("."); var publicSuffix = hostname; var last = parts[parts.length - 1]; var expireDate = new Date(); expireDate.setDate(expireDate.getDate() + 7); var TOP_LEVEL_DOMAINS = ["com", "local", "net", "org", "xxx", "edu", "es", "gov", "biz", "info", "fr", "gr", "nl", "ca", "de", "kr", "it", "me", "ly", "tv", "mx", "cn", "jp", "il", "in", "iq"]; var SPECIAL_DOMAINS = ["jp", "uk", "au"]; if(parts.length > 2 && SPECIAL_DOMAINS.indexOf(last) != -1){ publicSuffix = parts[parts.length - 3] + "."+ parts[parts.length - 2] + "."+ last} else if(parts.length > 1 && TOP_LEVEL_DOMAINS.indexOf(last) != -1) {publicSuffix = parts[parts.length - 2] + "."+ last} document.cookie = "optly_"+publicSuffix.split(".")[0]+"_test=true; domain=."+publicSuffix+"; path=/; expires="+expireDate.toGMTString()+";"; })();</em>

You should end up with the following:

3. Open the page where you want to place the cookie and click the bookmark

4. The cookie will now be set on the domain you are browsing and will looking something like: 'optly_YOURDOMAINNAME_test=true'

Next we need to target our experiment to only allow visitors who have the cookie set to see test variations.

5. Click the audiences icon at the top of the page

6. Select create a new audience

7. Drag Cookie into the Conditions and change the name to optly_YOURDOMAINNAME_test=true

8. Click Apply and save the experiment.

Source: https://help.optimizely.com/hc/en-us/articles/200293784-Setting-a-test-cookie-for-your-site

IP address targeting (only available on Enterprise accounts)

Using IP address targeting is useful when you are looking to test variations in house and on a variety of different devices and browsers.

1. Click the audiences icon at the top of the page

2. Select create a new audience

3. Drag IP Address from the possible conditions and enter the IP address being used. (Not sure of your IP address then head to http://whatismyipaddress.com/)

4. Click Apply and Save the experiment.

4. Force variations using parameters when debugging pages

There will be times, particular when testing new variations, that there will be the need to view a specific variation. Obviously this can be an issue if your browser has already been bucketed into an alternative variation. Optimizely overcomes this by allowing you to force the variation you wish to view, simply using query parameters.

The query parameter is structured in the following way: optimizely_x EXPRIMENTID=VARIATIONINDEX

1. The EXPERIMENTID can be found in the browser URL

2. VARIATIONINDEX is the variation you want to run, 0 is for the original, 1 is variation #1, 2 is variation #2 etc.

3. Using the above example to force a variation, we would use the following URLstructure to display variation 1 of our experiment: http://www.yourwebsite.com/?optimizely_x1845540742=1

Source: https://help.optimizely.com/hc/en-us/articles/200107480-Forcing-a-specific-variation-to-run-and-other-advanced-URL-parameters

5. Don't change the traffic allocation sliders

Once a test is live it is important not change the amount of traffic allocated to each variation. Doing so can massively affect test results, as one version would potentially begin to receive more return visitors who in turn have a much higher chance of converting.

My colleague Tom Capper discussed further the do's and don'ts of statistical significance earlier this year where he explained,

"At the start of your test, you decide to play it safe and set your traffic allocation to 90/10. After a time, it seems the variation is non-disastrous, and you decide to move the slider to 50/50. But return visitors are still always assigned their original group, so now you have a situation where the original version has a larger proportion of return visitors, who are far more likely to convert."

To summarize, if you do need to adjust the amount of traffic allocated to each test variation, you should look to restart the test to have complete confidence that the data you receive is accurate.

6. Use segmentation to generate better analysis

Okay I understand this one isn't strictly about Optimizely, but it is certainly worth keeping in mind, particularly earlier on in the CRO process when producing hypothesis around device type.

Conversion rates can vary greatly, particularly when we start segmenting data by locations, browsers, medium, return visits vs new visits, just to name a few. However, by using segmentation we can unearth opportunities that we may have previously overlooked, allowing us to generate new hypotheses for future experiments.

Example

You have been running a test for a month and unfortunately the results are inconclusive. The test version of the page didn't perform any better or worse than the original. Overall the test results look like the following:

Page Version	Visitors	Transactions	Conversion Rate
Original	41781	1196	2.86%
Variation	42355	1225	2.89%

In this case the test variation overall has only performed 1% better than the original with a significance of 60%. With these results this test variation certainly wouldn't be getting rolled out any time soon.

However when these results are segmented by device they tell a very different story:

Drilling into the desktop results we actually find that the test variation saw a 10% increase in conversions over the original with 97% significance. Yet those using a tablet were converting way below the original, thus driving down the overall conversion rates we were seeing in the first table.

Ultimately with this data we would be able to generate a new hypothesis of "we believe the variation will increase conversion rate for users on a desktop". We would then re-run the test to desktop only users to verify the previous data and the new hypothesis.

Using segmented data here could also potentially help the experiment reach significance at a much faster rate as explained in this video from Opticon 2014.

Should the new test be successful and achieve significance we would serve users on the desktops the new variation, whilst those on mobile and tablets continue to be displayed the original site.

Key takeaways

Always turn on Google Analytics tracking (and then double check it is turned on).
If you plan to make behavioural changes to a page use the Javascript editor rather than the drag and drop feature
Use IP address targeting for device testing and query parameters to share a live test with clients.
If you need to change the traffic allocation to test variations you should restart the test.
Be aware that test performance can vary greatly based on device.

What problems and solutions have you come across when creating CRO experiments with Optimizely? What pieces of information do you wish you had known 6 months ago?

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duminică, 7 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Marine Le Pen Ahead of Hollande in France Presidential Poll; Le Pen Blames EU for Crisis in Ukraine

Posted: 07 Sep 2014 12:10 PM PDT

French president Francois Hollande's term does not end until 2017, but for the first time ever Marine Le Pen's Front National party is on top in head-to-head polling.

Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen once shocked France by taking Front National to round two in the 2002 election, but was defeated by incumbent president Jacques Chirac who obtained 82% of the votes.

The Financial Times reports Poll shows Le Pen beating Hollande in presidential run-off

Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Front, would beat struggling incumbent François Hollande in a run-off election for the French presidency, according to a new poll.

The unprecedented finding came as a fresh blow to Mr Hollande at the end of a week in which he suffered a cascade of bad news, including the publication of a lacerating book by Valérie Trierweiler, his former partner.

A poll for Ifop, published on Friday, showed that Ms Le Pen would beat Mr Hollande by 54-46 per cent if they were matched today in the decisive second round of the presidential election. The next election is due in 2017.

The survey confirmed an earlier poll showing Ms Le Pen leading all other contenders of left and right in the first round. But it was the first time she had been shown ahead of a mainstream candidate in the second round – a scenario regarded to date as unrealistic.

The Ifop poll followed another on Friday by TNS-Sofres giving Mr Hollande an all-time low approval rating of just 13 per cent.

Mr Hollande's 13 per cent approval rating compared with the 20 per cent floor hit during his term by Mr Sarkozy, who was shown by the Ifop poll beating Ms Le Pen in a presidential vote by 60-40 per cent.

Mr Hollande has little choice but to try to tough out his demoralising slump in the hope that his reform policies will finally revive the stalled economy, the root source of his problems. But his opponents scent blood.

"Inexorably, one senses the moment is coming when François Hollande finds himself completely paralysed," commented the rightwing daily Le Figaro, which published the latest polls.

Le Pen Blames EU for Crisis in Ukraine

Please consider Crisis in Ukraine is 'all EU's fault' – France's Marine Le Pen.

"The crisis in Ukraine is all the European Union's fault. Its leaders negotiated a trade deal with Ukraine, which essentially blackmailed the country to choose between Europe and Russia," Le Pen told Le Monde daily in an interview.

"The European Union's diplomacy is a catastrophe," Le Pen told RT's Sophie Shevardnadze in an exclusive interview in June. [See Marine Le Pen: EU robbed us of all liberties, we should fight to get them back]

"The EU speaks out on foreign affairs either to create problems, or to make them worse."

"Ukraine's entry into the European Union; no need to tell fairy tales: Ukraine absolutely does not have the economic level to join the EU," Le Pen told RT.

In her fresh interview with Le Monde, the National Front leader had a positive attitude towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and the economic model he builds.

"I have a certain admiration for the man [Putin]. He proposes a patriotic economic model, radically different than what the Americans are imposing on us," said Marine Le Pen.

Citing "admiration" for Putin is probably not going to play well with French voters.

And her assertion "The crisis in Ukraine is all the European Union's fault" is certainly wrong given the role the US played at Maidan, leading to the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, former Ukraine president.

Nonetheless she is correct regarding European Union's diplomacy being a "catastrophe". So is EU agricultural policy, tax policy, and countless other policies.

2017 is a long way away. Much can happen between now and the next election for both Hollande, and Le Pen. Will Hollande even survive that long?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Under Pressure From Democrats, Obama Delays Immigration Action Until After Midterm Elections

Posted: 07 Sep 2014 12:03 AM PDT

In June, President Obama promised executive action on immigration.

He lied.

With polls showing a mere 26% Approval Rating for Obama's Immigration Reform Policies, the president bowed to political pressure from his own party and delayed his immigration cram-downs until after the mid-term elections.

Please consider Obama to Delay Executive Action on Immigration.

President Barack Obama will delay executive action on immigration until after the midterm elections, White House officials said Saturday, a bow to political pressure from Democrats in tough Senate races who had complained the action could hurt their campaigns.

The delay breaks Obama's promise, broadcast from the Rose Garden in June, that he would act on his own by summer's end to fix as many problems of the immigration system as the law allows.

Now, White House officials say the president will act by the end of the year.

The official added: "The president is confident in his authority to act, and he will before the end of the year.

The executive action had been widely expected to ratchet back deportations and possibly offer work permits to people in the U.S. illegally, perhaps millions. It might also include administrative changes pushed by companies that would produce more legal visas for people seeking to work in the U.S.

On Saturday, Scott Brown, a Republican who is running for the Senate in New Hampshire, and has used immigration to challenge his opponent, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, denounced the White House's move as cynical.

"President Obama's decision to delay executive action to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants until after the election is of little comfort to people like myself who believe in the rule of law," he said. "Make no mistake: President Obama plans to grant amnesty, it's just that he will cynically wait until after the election so as not to harm Senate Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who faces a tough challenger this fall, also denounced the move.

"What's so cynical about today's immigration announcement is that the president isn't saying he'll follow the law—he's just saying he'll go around the law once it's too late for Americans to hold his party accountable in the November elections," he said.

Voter Opinions

For a look at voter opinions, please see 26% Approval Rating for Obama's Immigration Reform Policies.

Democrats and Republicans alike disapprove of Obama's immigration plan.

A mere 26% of voters approve Obama's plans, and an even smaller 24% think the president has the legal authority to grant amnesty to these illegal immigrants without Congress' approval. And his own party does not approve of his plan.

Will that stop him? Of course not. He will do as he pleases after the election.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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SubmitStart · Trade Center · Kristian IV:s väg 3 · Halmstad 302 50 · Sweden

luni, 8 septembrie 2014

Slide to the left:

"These Are Some Special Stones"

Seth's Blog : Things well done (and the smartest Lt Gov candidate ever)

Things well done (and the smartest Lt Gov candidate ever)

More Recent Articles

6 Things I Wish I Knew Before Using Optimizely

6 Things I Wish I Knew Before Using Optimizely

1. You don't have to use the editor

If you do use the editor be aware of excess code

2. Enabling analytics tracking