luni, 12 octombrie 2015

Beyond Responsive: Design and Development Trends for Adaptable Marketers - Moz Blog

Beyond Responsive: Design and Development Trends for Adaptable Marketers

Posted by Carson-Ward

A friend of mine recently asked me to review and explain a series of site recommendations sent over by a well-known digital marketing agency with roots in SEO. We talked through the (generally good) recommendations for content and search optimization, and then we got to this:

"* Mobile accounts for 53% of your traffic. We recommend building a mobile-friendly responsive website. Google recommends using responsive design so that your site looks good on all devices, and it may help increase mobile rankings."

And that was it. A bullet point that says "build a responsive site" is like getting a home inspection back with a bunch of minor repairs and a bullet point that says, "Also, build a new house with modern specs."

We, as professional marketers, need to realize that this advice is not good enough. We're not helping anyone with broad statements that give no guidance on where to start or what to think about. Google might recommend responsive, but that doesn't mean it's the only option or that it's always the right option. Even if it is the right option, we need to have some idea on how to do responsive right.

If we're going to tell people to redesign their websites, we'd better have something more profound than a single bullet point on a 20-page document. Implying that "Google will reward you for responsive" and leaving it at that could do more harm than good. It also misses a tremendous opportunity to help clients build a great website with an awesome user experience.

It's fine if you're not well-versed in site architecture, design, user experience, and/or user intent. Just don't mention a gargantuan project like a site redesign if all you have to say is "build a responsive site, because Google."

This post is a look at how companies are handling the future of the web, for better or worse. My goal is to help SEOs, content marketers, and all other digital marketers to speak more intelligently about responsive, mobile, and other design and development trends.

Don't follow the crowd: you risk going full Windows 8.

We learned some important lessons about cross-platform design from the disaster that was Windows 8. It was a mess for lots of reasons – and yet I see the same people who mocked Windows 8 beginning to make some of the same mistakes on their websites. For those who never used Windows 8 in its early days, let me explain why it was so bad.

  • "Metro" (or "Modern" or whatever) shunned navigation for modern simplicity. It featured big icons – and no clear way to do more than click icons. Desktop users hated it.
  • There were a bunch of useful features and options most people never knew about hidden in sub-navigation. Windows 8 could actually do some cool new stuff – but few people knew it could, because it wasn't visible.
  • Users didn't know how to do what they wanted. Menus and buttons were shunned in favor of bloated pictures of app icons. Common features like the start menu, control panel, and file search were suddenly moved to non-standard places. Thousands of people turned to Google every month to figure out how to do simple things like turn their computer off and run a search. That's RIDICULOUS.

A small sample of people asking Google to help them navigate a Microsoft product. Also interesting: Windows 7 has always had lower searches for these terms despite 4-5x the number of active users.

Now here we are, three years later, watching the web go full Windows 8 on their users. Menus are scaled down into little hamburgers on desktop. Don't do that! You're alienating your desktop users just like Windows 8 did. Users have to click two or three times instead of just once to find what they need in your menu. And don't kid yourself: You're not Windows. No one's going to ask Google how to use your site's nav. They're just going to look at result number two.

Let's look at an example of making the Windows 8 mistake on the web. Let's go big. Let's go Honda.

This is what happens when you take a design trend and try to force it on your corporate site without thinking about users or why they're coming to your site. What does this site sell? Dreams? Clouds? Stock images? The text on the page could be placed on almost any corporate site in the world. Honda has gone full Windows 8 on their corporate site.

Aside: I'm picking on Honda because I know they can take a beating here and keep running – just like my CR-V (which I love).

I'm obviously not a fan of the expanding mobile-style navigational menu on desktop, but Honda blew me away with an overly-complicated mess of a menu.

I understand the company makes major engines, boats, and aircraft parts. Having lots of parts to your business doesn't mean that each part deserves equal emphasis. Honda needs to step back and ask what users want when they get to the site, and realize that it's unfeasible to serve every intent – especially if it wants to maintain its simplistic design.

What about the competition?

Toyota and other competitors know most users visiting the site want to look at automobile options or find a dealer. Both Honda and Toyota have sites for racing, and both companies sell industrial engines. But Toyota understands that most users landing on Toyota.com want the consumer brand, and that racing enthusiasts will Google "Toyota racing" instead. There's also a link way down in the footer.

The exception to the rule of avoiding what I'm calling mobile-only design might be a design firm. Here's Big Spaceship's site. They're a design agency that knows more about web design than I ever will. It's a great site, and it's probably going to get them sales. Do not copy them. Don't imitate a design agency's website unless you are a design agency. I'm talking to you, Honda.

When a user visits a design firm's site, they want to see the company's skills. Design agencies like Big Spaceship are wise to immediately showcase and sell users on their design capabilities. In essence, the home page acts as a full-page product shot and sales page.

I've seen SEO/Design/Marketing agencies create what are essentially design-only websites, and then wonder why no one is interested in their SEO services. I've seen product companies use a logo + hamburger menu + massive product image layout and have problems selling anything but the product featured in the first image. That's what you get for copying the cool kids.

It only makes sense to show one thing if you only do one thing. Good design in Amazon's case is very different. Amazon has millions of products, and they don't want people clicking through categories, choosing the wrong ones, and getting lost or frustrated. The search function is key with a mega-site: thus the not-so-pretty search bar on every Amazon page.

Align your users' intents with nav items and landing page content. Show them how to browse or search your goods and services without making them click unnecessarily. Keep browse-able items to a manageable level, and make sure you have a simple click path to things people want to do on your site. Look at how Medium aligns intent with design.

Simplicity works for Medium posts: the user wants to read the post they've landed on, and the focus of the site's design is on reading the post. Medium will hold off on getting you to read or share more until you're done reading. Most of those calls to action are at the bottom of the article. Now look at the home page.

Smart. When someone lands on a post, they want to read the post. So show them the post! When someone lands on the home page, their intents vary. Give them options that aren't hidden behind a hamburger menu. Show them what they can do.

Figure out what your users want to know or see, and build those elements prominently into the site. Don't blindly copy web design, or you risk following Windows 8 in alienating your core users, especially on desktop.

So how do you know what your users want to see?

1. Run on-page surveys

One of the best ways to figure out what people are looking for is to ask them. Don't continually annoy people with popups, but if you're just starting out it's worth gathering the information up-front. Ask people what they're looking for when they visit your site. We use Qualaroo, but there are lots of simple tools that can be implemented quickly.

If you already know what people are looking for, you should make sure you know what their primary considerations are for buying. Does price matter to them more than power or quality? If price matters most to your buyers, price should be featured prominently in the design.

2. Use split tests to understand intent

There are lots of reasons to run split tests, and the focus should usually be on conversion. The problem is that sometimes we focus exclusively on which version converted better, and forget to ask why.

We use Optimizely, and it's awesome. We also keep a log of test results with our pre-test hypothesis, pages tested, a link to results, and why we think it won. Then we try to think about the implications if we're right about our conclusion.

  • Where else might we be making the mistake of the losing version?
  • What other pages are impacted if we're right about what our users want?
  • Is there content we can create to solve the users' problems? Are there key pages or explanations that are missing?

It's a little bit dangerous to over-apply a single test's conclusions on the whole site, so this usually leads to more testing. After three or four tests you might be ready to make moderate changes without running a split test, allowing you to move on to the next big test.

3. Look at in-market segments

Try to figure out where your users are mentally by looking at in-market segments. Don't mistake in-market segments for what users are trying to buy. Instead, use it to understand what else the user has been looking at. Here's a site we work on, for example:

So what is this telling me on our home services site? What do real estate, employment, hotels, new cars, and home furniture have in common? These are all things people need if they're moving. If we're smart about it, our site should have messaging and navigation options clearly intended for people who are moving. Maybe moving guides would be a good content idea. These are all opportunities that go unnoticed if we're only focused on what people want to buy.

Some sites are going back to mobile sites, and that's okay

It's been said that Google "likes" responsive design and will reward responsive sites with higher search rankings. I disagree on that second point. Google likes sites that give the user what they want, regardless of the technology used.

Yes, Google has recommended responsive design. So do I, but I do so because it's by far the easiest multi-device approach to maintain and the hardest to completely mess up. That doesn't mean it's the only way, and that does not mean that Google will penalize a site for providing a superior mobile experience in a different way.

There are lots of benefits to mobile sites. On some sites the intent and behavior of mobile users is different enough from desktop users that it justifies creating a mobile-specific experience. It's also compatible with the goal of a fast-loading site.

Responsive sites are generally much slower to load, according to a report from The Search Agency.

You can and should make your site fast with responsive, but there are a host of reasons most responsive sites end up slower on mobile. Both dynamically-served sites and mobile sites naturally lend themselves to building with speed in mind. A mobile-specific site can also offer an experience that is ideal for the user intent at that time.

This past July, Cindy Krum talked about "mobile intent" during her Mozcon presentation. It might sound like a buzzword, but it's true that mobile users are in a different spot. They're not looking to compare as much. They want to either buy quickly or get some quick details on the product.

If you're thinking about doing a mobile site, make sure you have lots of people ready to build it out correctly and maintain it. Don't underestimate the dev time it will take to make the entire site work. You'll need SEOs who know how to set up rel tags and ideally make sure the mobile site has an identical URL structure. You'll need lots of QA to make sure all your page types are being served correctly.

Some SEOs will say that a mobile sub-domain or sub-folder is worse for SEO because links to one won't count as links to the other. Nonsense! That's what the rel="canonical" and rel="alternate" tags are for. Just like fretting over non-www 301 redirecting to the www version, these are things that made a big difference at one point, but are no longer as essentially important as they were. Google is smart enough to understand what's happening – unless you don't implement them correctly.

Responsive design is still a better option for most companies, but there's no reason to be dogmatic about it. There's a reason Google gives you three options. A mobile site can work for larger companies, and is often the best option for mega e-commerce sites.

Web development continues to evolve – including JavaScript libraries

JavaScript usage is place where the SEOs are often guilty of giving dated advice. SEO should enable great content to appear to more people in more searches. SEO should not be used to restrict useful content creating tools unless absolutely necessary.

Traditional SEO wisdom has always been to avoid putting any content into JavaScript that we want the crawlers to see. This is outdated advice for websites in 2015. Libraries like React and Angular can be amazing tools. They're full of features, fun to use, and can make your website feel faster and more responsive.

If Google wants to reward a positive user experience, and if JavaScript can help site owners provide a stellar user experience, then SEOs should embrace JavaScript. Rather than lobbying against any JavaScript on the site it's time to get a little more sophisticated in our approach to help the team use their tools correctly.

React and Angular can definitely make your dynamic content more fun to use, but they also make heavy use of AJAX-like client-side execution, which Google doesn't really understand (yet). Developers and SEOs should be aware of how to make it work.

Making AJAX Google-friendly could be its own post. In fact, there are already several great posts. Google also has some great guides – make sure to check the linked resources, too. One small warning: there's a lot of outdated info out there on the topic.

You can get around a lot of the nitty-gritty technical SEO using things like Prerender or V8. Try to find a tool that will automatically generate a crawlable version while using AJAX. Communicate with your developers to find a solution that works with your setup.

A humbling example

As I said, it's important to make sure that you communicate with developers before construction begins. I'll use a painful recent experience as an example. We just built a react-based tool that helps beginners estimate how much internet speed they need. It immediately redirected all visitors to a URL with a hashtag and the rest of the survey is behind a hashtag. And none of the text could be crawled without client-side execution.

Oops.

We built an awesome tool, and then hid it from Google. Someone fire the guy who missed that… just don't tell anyone it was me. We used React.js here, and it was a blast. We've also received great feedback from users. The lesson here is not to avoid React and AJAX. The lesson here is to communicate SEO requirements to the developers early. The fix will be done soon, but it took a lot longer than if I'd done my due diligence beforehand.

Understanding Google-friendly JavaScript implementation is the job of every SEO. Other digital marketers should at least be aware that there's a potential problem and a technical solution.

I love interactive tools that are fast and useful. SEOs should be facilitating the building of things that are awesome. That means helping find solutions rather than lobbying against an entire toolset that's widely used on the modern web.

Don't forget About indexable apps

Google can now index and rank apps, and they have some decent guidelines on how to do it. It's possible that app-based companies with an exclusively mobile client base don't even need a traditional website.

Most companies will still want to build and maintain websites, but be open to the idea that a responsive site might not be the best option for a small mobile game developer. The right option might instead be to add links to content and discussion and then support deep linking within the app.

Even if app-only isn't the right option, consider that content within apps could be a more engaging medium for people who have already installed the app. For example, a discussion board for players of the game might work better within the game app itself. It could definitely feel more engaging and immersive if users never have to leave the app to ask a fellow user a question or rant about the latest update.

Final thoughts

A site might look awesome when you shrink and expand the window while presenting the design to the c-suite, but if the real decision makers, the users, don't know what a cheeseburger menu is, you're not going to sell very many stock photos of earth. Responsive design is a great option – often the right option – but it isn't the only option. Hopefully this post can help get some thoughts started how to do responsive right.

I'm absolutely not saying that responsive is dead. My point is that if our advice drifts into design and development we should be able to give more concrete advice. Don't just build websites that respond to screen size. Build websites that respond immediately to your customer's needs.


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Seth's Blog : Discovery day

Discovery day

Bernadette Jiwa's brilliant new book is out this week. 

Doug Rushkoff's book isn't out until March, but I was lucky enough to read a galley. Worth pre-ordering.

Here's the (free) audio of a recent talk I did at Hubspot Inbound. (Video is here, but I think the audio works nicely).

If you want to understand how to design cool stuff with your Mac, this huge collection from pioneer DTPer John McWade is worth every penny. A master class.

Six years ago I did a free seminar for non-profits. Spreading ideas, Oprah, fundraising, marketing, doing this vital work... You can watch it here.

Discovering something new is thrilling and quite an opportunity. Share the good stuff.

       

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duminică, 11 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power

Posted: 11 Oct 2015 08:56 PM PDT

IMF head Christine Lagarde says "IMF credibility is at stake". She blames the US for that development, and calls on US to give more voting power to China to solve the problem.



Link if video does not play: "IMF Credibility at Stake"

Credibility?

I have a simple question: Precisely what credibility does the IMF have?

To address my simple question, please consider the ZeroHedge report This Is How The IMF "Predicted" China's Slowdown
As the following chart compiling the IMF's various quarterly economic forecasts over the past 5 years clearly shows, what the IMF had actually forecast, was a constant hockeystick rebound in China growth starting in 2011... until 2014 when the monetary fund finally gave up.

Credibility Recovery

In a "credibility boosting" exercise Zerohedge comments ...

"The IMF's forecast of China's growth after the fact is now so negative, it is well below the consensus projections, as the IMF is all too happy to boast ..."



Ta-Da!

The IMF's credibility has been magically restored by impressive revisionist history. But as we see today, that credibility is once again at stake.

3 Trillion Credit Crunch Coming Up

Meanwhile, please note the IMF is concerned that a $3 Trillion Corporate Credit Crunch Looms as Debtors Face Day of Reckoning.
Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world.

Emerging market companies have "over-borrowed" by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF's twice yearly report.
Mercy!

Q. How did this happen?
A. The answer of course is corporations took on insane amounts of debts precisely as central banks and the IMF wanted them to do.

Q. Why did the IMF and central banks encourage this debt?
A. To help stimulate the global economy.

Q. Did it work?
A. Obviously not.

Q. So why do they think still more debt will fix a problem caused by debt?
A. You tell me.

Mish Proposal

If the IMF wants China in the name of credibility, please let them have it.

In return, I ask one simple thing: The US cuts off all IMF funding, as it should have done long ago.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

TPP and Free Trade Canadian Style

Posted: 11 Oct 2015 10:57 AM PDT

As I have commented before alleged "free trade" agreements are anything but. We now have confirmation from Canada as to what it took for other signatories to agree to the monstrosity of TPP.

Reader TB passed along Alan Guebert's Free Trade's Cheap Talk is Big Money.
These easy-to-find challenges to NCBA's silly Trans-Pacific cheerleading point to several underlying myths at the heart of Big Ag's rock-ribbed belief that free trade is the past, current, and future salvation of American farms and ranches.

One myth is that all U.S. farm and ranch profits are tied directly to free trade. The Obama White House made that connection again Oct. 5 when it noted "roughly 20 percent of all farm income in the United States," is "provided" by "exports."

True, but farm income is not farm profit. If it were, U.S. net farm income would have risen when ag exports rose from $141 billion in 2013 to $152 billion in 2014. Instead, U.S. net farm income fell from $135 billion to $126 billion in that period.

Another myth about free trade is that trade agreements are about freedom to export. In truth, most trade deals "specify who will be protected from international competition and who will not," explains the Economic Policy Institute in its overview of the TPP.

Clear evidence comes from America's giant neighbor, Canada, whose ag minister announced his dairy and poultry farmers will be compensated for "any losses" caused by TPP before the deal was even signed. It confirms Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz's long-held belief that free trade deals are "managed trade agreements, tailored for corporate interests…"


American farmers and ranchers know this in their bones but not their hearts. They are farmers and ranchers, not exporters. Big Agbiz — Cargill, JBS, Smithfield, ADM and the like — are global buyers and sellers who, when able to play both sides of any trade-leveled playing field the world over, rarely lose.

Maybe that's why the Big Boys aren't saying squat about the TPP; they got everything they demanded during negotiations. Now they want you to pressure Congress to pass it for them and their shareholders.

In fact, they're betting on it and, already, their bets are paying off.
Related Posts


Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Peak Mac



Peak Mac

The Grateful Dead hit their peak in 1977. Miles Davis in 1959, Warhol perhaps ten years later. It's not surprising that artists hit a peak—their lives have an arc, and so does the work. It can't possibly keep amazing us forever.

Fans say that the Porsche arguably hit a peak in 1995 or so, and the Corvette before that. Sears hit a peak more than a decade ago. It's more surprising to us when a brand, an organization or a business hits a peak, because the purpose of the institution is to improve over time. They gain more resources, more experience, more market acceptance... they're not supposed to get bored, or old or lose their touch. If Disney hadn't peaked, there would never have been a Pixar. If Nokia and Motorola hadn't peaked, there never would have been a smart phone.

One reason for peaking turns out to be success.

Success means more employees, more meetings and more compromise. Success means more pressure to expand the market base and to broaden the appeal to get there. Success means that stubborn visionaries are pushed aside by profit-maximizing managers.

An organization that seeks to continue its success, that wants to keep its promises to customers, employees and investors needs to be on alert for where the peak lies, and be ready to do something about it. And the answer isn't more meetings or more layers of spec.

I got my first Mac in 1984. I was a beta tester for the first desktop publishing program (ReadySetGo) and I've used a Mac just about every day for the last thirty years. It occurred to me recently that the Mac hit its peak as a productivity tool about three years ago.

Three years or so ago, the software did what I needed it to. The operating system was stable. Things didn't crash, things fit together properly, when something broke, I could fix it.

Since then, we've seen:

Operating systems that aren't faster or more reliable at running key apps, merely more like the iPhone. The latest update broke my RSS reader (which hasn't been updated) and did nothing at all to make my experience doing actual work get better.

Geniuses at the Genius Bar who are trained to use a manual and to triage, not to actually make things work better. With all the traffic they have to face, they have little choice.

Software like Keynote, iMovie and iTunes that doesn't get consistently better, but instead, serves other corporate goals. We don't know the names of the people behind these products, because there isn't a public, connected leader behind each of them, they're anonymous bits of a corporate whole.

Compare this approach to the one taken by Nisus, the makers of my favorite word processor. An organization with a single-minded focus on making something that works, keeping a promise to users, not investors.

Mostly, a brand's products begin to peak when no one seems to care. Sure, the organization ostensibly cares, but great tools and products and work require a person to care in an apparently unreasonable way.

It's always tricky to call a peak. More likely than not, you'll be like the economist who predicted twelve or the last three recessions. 

The best strategy for a growing organization is to have insiders be the ones calling it. Insiders speaking up and speaking out on behalf of the users that are already customers, not merely the ones you're hoping to acquire.

Most Apple parables aren't worth much to others, because it's a special case. But in this case, if it can happen to their organization, it can happen to yours.

[/rant]

       

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sâmbătă, 10 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Tantalizing Stupidity and the Case for Gold

Posted: 10 Oct 2015 05:45 PM PDT

Financial Repression Insanity

Purportedly the Fed is ready willing and able to go to next step of financial repression insanity: Negative Interest Rates.
Federal Reserve officials now seem open to deploying negative interest rates to combat the next serious recession even though they rejected that option during the darkest days of the financial crisis in 2009 and 2010.

"Some of the experiences [in Europe] suggest maybe can we use negative interest rates and the costs aren't as great as you anticipate," said William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, in an interview on CNBC on Friday.

Bernanke told Bloomberg Radio last week he didn't deploy negative rates because he was "afraid" zero interest rates would have adverse effects on money markets funds -- a concern they wouldn't be able to recover management fees -- and the federal-funds market might not work. Staff work told him the benefits were not great.

But events in Europe over the past few years have changed his mind. In Europe, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the central banks of Denmark and Sweden have deployed negative rates to some small degree.

"We see now in the past few years that it has been made to work in some European countries," he said.

In fact, Narayana Kocherlakota, the dovish president of the Minneapolis Fed, projected negative rates in his latest forecast of the path of interest rates released last month.

Kocherlakota said he was willing to push rates down to give a boost to the labor market, which he said has stagnated after a strong 2014.

Although negative rates have a "Dr. Strangelove" feel, pushing rates into negative territory works in many ways just like a regular decline in interest rates that we're all used to, said Miles Kimball, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and an advocate of negative rates.

But the benefits are tantalizing, especially given the low productivity growth path facing the U.S.

With negative rates, "aggregate demand is no longer scarce," Kimball said.
Tantalizing Stupidity

For starters, negative interest rates should be seen as what they are: theft.

Actually, the inflationist policies of central banks are theft, but negative interest rate proposals go one step further down the rabbit hole.

With this proposal, we can add Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, and Miles Kimball, an economics professor at the University of Michigan to the never-ending list of economically illiterate jackasses.

There is absolutely no benefit with financial repression measures that further punish those on fixed income. The positive effects these clowns see are nothing but a mirage that will vanish as soon as asset bubbles collapse.

The problem is debt coupled with asset bubbles created by debt, yet the proposed solution is to make people spend more while taking away scarce resources of those who save.

Financial Repression

I recently discussed financial repression with Gordon Long.



Link if video does not play: Mish's Monthly Macro w/Gordon T Long

Our focus in that interview was the sorry state of affairs in Illinois. Our next interview no doubt will be on negative interest rates.

Case for Gold

It is F*ing stupid to attempt to force people to spend money on things they don't want or need on the inane belief demand is too low and wasting money is the cure.

These economic idiots will never stop, which is one reason why I am firmly committed to gold over the long haul.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

US Abandons Scheme to Arm Rebels, Instead Adopts Rand Paul's Proposal to Arm Kurds; Hillary Flashbacks

Posted: 10 Oct 2015 12:41 PM PDT

Russian interference in Syria has had one positive aspect already: US Scraps Scheme to Create Syrian Rebel Force.
The US is halting a controversial $500m programme to create a rebel force in Syria after concluding that it was having practically no impact in the battle against Isis fighters in the war-torn country.

Instead of trying to build up a new force of fighters — training them outside Syria and then sending them back in equipped — the Pentagon will now focus on arming and training a smaller number of leaders of Arab and Kurdish groups in Syria that have had some success fighting the Islamist militant group Isis.
Since arming Syrian al Qaeda "rebel" terrorists was always a bad idea, I would call this bit of news a distinct positive.

Hillary Flashbacks

Last Year the Guardian reported Hillary Clinton Wanted to Arm Syrian Rebels, Memoir Reveals.

On February 1, 2015, the Washington Times reported Secret Benghazi Report Reveals Hillary's Libya War Push Armed al Qaeda-Tied Terrorists.

On July 1, in the Washington Times article Hillary's Secret War Judge Andrew Napolitano listed his conclusion after reviewing documents and emails from a period in which Hillary Clinton was secretary of state.

Napolitano stated "What I saw has persuaded me beyond a reasonable doubt and to a moral certainty that Mrs. Clinton provided material assistance to terrorists and lied to Congress in a venue where the law required her to be truthful."

Succession of Bad Ideas

Recall that one of the reasons president Bush gave for invading Iraq was that Hussein was harboring al Qaeda. In reality, al Qaeda did not exist in Iraq to any degree until the US invaded and put in a dangerously unstable government. ISIS was the direct result.

In the wake of the Iraq mess, the US armed alleged "moderate rebels" in three places. It backfired in Libya, Iraq, and Syria.

Arming al Qaeda is absurd.

Rand Paul on Arming Kurds

In a March 10 interview, senator Rand Paul said Arm the Kurds to Battle ISIS and Radical Islam, Give Them Kurdistan.
In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, likely 2016 GOP presidential candidate Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) staked out a bold position on a foreign policy matter—pushing to arm Kurdish fighters against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) even more than the U.S. has already done, but also calling for the creation of a new nation of Kurdistan.

"Part of the problem is the Kurds aren't getting enough arms," Paul said. "The Kurds are the best fighters. The arms are going through Baghdad to get to the Kurds and they're being siphoned off and they're not getting what they need. I think any arms coming from us or coming from any European countries ought to go directly to the Kurds. They seem to be the most effective and most determined fighters."

"But I would go one step further: I would draw new lines for Kurdistan and I would promise them a country," Paul said.
Map-Making Problems

Should the US be drawing lines, promising to build countries? Or should the US tell the Kurds that if they create a country, the US would recognize it? Something else?

A Wikipedia Map of Kurdistan highlights the issues with re-drawing lines.



"Contemporary use of the term refers to four parts of a greater Kurdistan, which include parts of southeastern Turkey (Northern Kurdistan), northern Syria (Western Kurdistan), northern Iraq (Southern Kurdistan), and western Iran (Eastern Kurdistan). Some Kurdish nationalist organizations seek to create an independent nation state of Kurdistan, consisting of some or all of the areas with Kurdish majority, while others campaign for greater Kurdish autonomy within the existing national boundaries."

The Kurds are fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey is fighting the Kurds in Turkey.

Turkey does not want an independent Kurdistan in Iraq for fear it will lose part of Turkey in the process. And what about Iran? Would it cede territory to a new Kurdish state?

Simply put, the US should not be in the map-making business. Nor should the US arm terrorists. But what is the definition of terrorist?

Terrorism in the Eyes of the Beholder

  • The US has a definition of "terrorist" that it frequently and foolishly overlooks with terrible results.
  • Syria has a definition that would include US-backed al Qaeda rebels. 
  • Turkey has a definition that would include the independence-minded Kurds in Turkey. 
  • The Kurds have a fourth definition, and Iran a fifth. 
  • Of course Lebanon, Israel, and the Palestinians all have their overlapping definitions too.

Twin Blasts at Turkish Peace Rally

In an unfortunate incident this weekend, Twin Blasts at Turkish Peace Rally Kill at Least 86.
A twin bombing in Ankara has killed at least 86 people at a peace rally, the deadliest attack in Turkey's history.

The blasts took place on Saturday near a train station where a crowd of supporters of the Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP) had gathered ahead of the rally to protest against armed clashes between security forces and Kurdish insurgents.

Authorities have called the attack an act of terror and are said to be looking into reports that two suicide bombers were involved.

The bombing comes just three weeks ahead of an early election in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) hopes to regain the parliamentary majority it lost in the June poll after a surprisingly strong showing by the pro-Kurdish HDP.

The run-up to the November 1 vote has already been marred by widespread violence across the country, particularly in the Kurdish south-east, after the collapse of a ceasefire between the government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Kurdistan Worker's Party

Wikipedia reports the Kurdistan Worker's Party "(PKK) is usually used interchangeably for the name of its armed wing, the People's Defence Force (HPG), which was formerly called the Kurdistan National Liberty Army (ARGK). The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization internationally by several states and organizations, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union. However countries such as India, China, Russia, Switzerland and Egypt have not designated the PKK as a terrorist organization. Also, the UN has not listed the PKK as a terrorist organisation."

Mideast Mapmaking

Reason.Com had these comments on mapmaking.
Paul didn't merely say that if the Kurds succeed in carving out a territory, the U.S. should recognize it. He said America should actively involve itself in launching the state and establishing its borders.

Eugene McCarthy once wisecracked that you can blame most of the world's problems on British mapmakers, who casually carved countries out of their dying empire without regard for whether the boundaries they were drawing made much sense.

I can't say I have much faith that mapmakers based in Washington would do a more impressive job — and I have even less faith that it would be worth any ordinary American's while to get tangled up in the conflicts that would inevitably follow.
Mish Proposals

  1. Let's get out of the map-making business, forever.
  2. If the Kurds want to fight ISIS, it's reasonable to help them on the grounds this is their legitimate battle, not ours, and also because ISIS is essentially a US creation. Also note that ISIS, unlike Saddam Hussein, is a potential security threat, if not a genuine one already.
  3. If Russia wants to take on ISIS, let them, or better yet, welcome them.
  4. No US troops
  5. Let's get to the bottom of this Hillary mess, whatever it takes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Narcissistic altruism (altruistic narcissism)

Narcissistic altruism (altruistic narcissism)

An oxymoron that's true.

Everyone who does good things does them because it makes them feel good, because the effort and the donation is worth more than it costs. (And it might be a donation to a charity or merely helping out a neighbor or contributing to a community project).

Some people contribute because of the story they are able to tell themselves about the work they're doing.

Many people do good things because they like the attention that it brings. Because it feels good to have others see you did good.

The Chronicle of Philanthropy annually ranks the top 50 gifts of the year. And every year, virtually all of them are gifts to hospitals and colleges.

One reason: you get your name on a building.

Many people who work to gain support for good causes don't like this, it feels like a tax on their work, but a building rarely gets worse if it has someone's name on it.

It's totally valid to offer a product or service that only appeals to the minority who aren't slightly narcissistic, who seek a different story. But it's a mistake to believe that just because you're 'right' (quotes deliberately used) that your story will match their worldview.

If you want to make it more likely that someone contributes (to anything), it might be worth investing a few cycles figuring out how to give them credit, public, karmic or somewhere in between.

       

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vineri, 9 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


High-End Property Slowdown in Maryland and Texas: Where Next?

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 12:52 PM PDT

Correction: In what follows, I said initially said Virginia when I meant Maryland. Title and all references to Virginia corrected to Maryland. The person I quoted below said "MD" but somehow I spelled it out as Virginia. Apologies offered.

In response to Chicago Suburbs $1 Million+ Home Sales "Not Totally Dead" Yet; Rush for the Exit, I received emails from Maryland and Texas about slowdowns in those states.

Anecdotes do not constitute "data" but all three stories (counting Chicago) show significant weakness at the high-end in widely varying areas with distinct economic backdrop differences.

Paul from Maryland
Mish, I live in the Howard County, Maryland. It's the 4th wealthiest county in the US. We recently had a presentation by a Realtor on the state of the market. It's still a very strong seller's market in the $600K and below range. Inventory is around 2.5 months on a 3 month rolling average basis.

However, the high end is abysmal. Houses asking $2.5M+ are not selling at all. There are 20 on the market with no sales. In the $1M to $2.5M category, 293 are up for sale, with only 27sold, a weak showing.

A friend of mine who lives in a high end area told me about a neighbor who had asked $1.5M and sold for $850K. The Realtor opined that that a recession next year was likely.

Paul
Aaron From Texas
Hello Mish,

Good article on Chicago. We are seeing a similar slowdown on the high end here in Houston, particularly in the Energy Corridor (West Houston). Right now Texas has a huge problem with skyrocketing residential property taxes. I was on the local news last night talking about the City of Sugar Land's latest exercise in corporate welfare as they gifted about $8 million in new tax incentives to Schlumberger. That's $8 million that will be strapped to the backs of homeowners who have no real access to due process to fight our corrupt appraisal districts. It's actually fairly easy for corporations to get a nice discount from the CADs because Texas is a non-disclosure state, and the CADS get roughed up when they are sued in district court.

Aaron Layman
Oh Those CADs

I gave Aaron a call. "CAD" stands for County Appraisal District. It seems the CADs go way out of their way to appraise business property low and home prices high. They can get away with it because sale prices are not disclosed.

Aaron has his own real estate business and a blog. He wrote about the Schlumberger deal recently in Sugar Land Homeowners Get Steamrolled

In a second email Aaron wrote ...
Hi Mish,

It was a pleasure talking to you. Thanks for the call. We have a "Sugar Land" TX, but not a "Sugar Town". My market here in Katy is more directly tied to the Energy Corridor. We have seen a very noticeable drop in new construction sales here this year in Katy and West Houston. Builders were chasing the high end of the market, and now those homes priced at $500,000 and higher are not selling nearly as well. What a surprise!

Cross Creek Ranch was one of the nation's hottest spots for new home construction in 2013 and the first half of 2014. Now things are rolling over. 6 of the last 7 months have resulted in negative YoY prices. One of my clients was able to get $119,000 off of the original list price for a new spec home.

For additional background, I am not just a licensed, practicing real estate broker. I am also a licensed educator and frequent blogger. I enjoy writing, and I have become fascinated with the crony capitalism from the Federal Reserve and various levels of government. Our financial markets are now a comedic farce, similar to our warped & manipulated housing market. It is an absolute travesty what is happening in this country, and I am continually amazed at the lengths our politicians and apologists will go to as they attempt to whitewash all of the fraud that is taking place and keep corporate criminals out of jail.

Interesting times!

Best Regards,
Aaron
Sugar Land vs. Sugar Town

That's the kind of honesty that's going to get an endorsement from me. If you are in the Texas energy belt looking to buy or sell, Aaron appears to be a good source.

I had mistakenly referred to Sugar Land as Sugar Town in one of our email exchanges. Thus the correction, with an accompanying musical Tribute



Link if video does not play: Nancy Sinatra - Sugar Town 1967

Where Next?

High-end rot is apparent in Howard County Maryland, the Texas energy belt, and Chicago suburbs.

Where's the next high-end bust? I actually suspect they are happening all over the place. And if so, recall my earlier statement that the economy rots from the periphery to the core but home price rot starts at the high-end and works its way lower.

I propose housing is not as strong as the bulk of economists believe it is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Export Prices Unexpectedly Collapse, Led by Agriculture; Non-Petroleum Import Prices Sink Most Since October 2009

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 09:07 AM PDT

Economists expected export prices to drop by 0.2%. Instead they fell 0.7%, outside the range of any Econoday Import/Export Estimate.
A bounce back for petroleum prices helped to limit import-price contraction in September, coming in at only minus 0.1 percent. But contraction in export prices, where agriculture and not petroleum is the wild card, was very heavy, at minus 0.7 percent in the month. Year-on-year rates are very weak, still in the double-digits for imports at minus 10.7 percent and at minus 7.4 percent for exports.

A striking detail on the import side is slightly deepening year-on-year contraction in various core readings, still in the low to mid single digits with non-petroleum down 3.3 percent. This is the largest decline since October 2009 and points to fundamental price weakness for imports, in part a function of the strong currency which is giving U.S. buyers more for their dollars. Prices for petroleum imports rose 1.1 percent in the month, a welcome positive for the Fed's efforts to raise inflation but still a fraction of the giant 11.8 and 6.6 percent declines of the prior two months.

On the export side, prices of agricultural goods fell 1.1 percent and are down a stiff 13.5 percent year-on-year in news that is not welcome in the farm sector. Non-agricultural export prices fell 0.6 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate also speaking to fundamental price weakness, at minus 6.7 percent in what is record weakness.

But the price bounce for petroleum is a reminder that the great price drag from this year's oil rout may have run its course, especially given this month's early strength in oil prices. Still, this is a weak report that underscores the strong dollar's negative-price effects on imports.
Welcome Rise

Once again, the economic cheerleaders are praising price inflation. Bear in mind, this same group of cheerleaders have said all along that falling oil prices were a good thing because consumers would spend the money elsewhere.

Thus, falling oil prices are good, and so are rising oil prices. Do these people read what they write?

Off the Chart - Import Prices



Import prices are now down 14 consecutive months, year-over-year, literally "off the chart" as shown from the BLS Report on Import/Export Prices.

The last time year-over-year import prices rose was for the 12-month period ending July 2014.

Off the Chart - Export Prices



Year-over-Year export prices are also "off the chart", albeit for one month less.

Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent drop the previous month. Falling agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the September and August declines. The price index for overall exports fell 7.4 percent over the past year, the largest year-over-year decrease for the index since an 8.3-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009.

Agricultural export prices declined 1.1 percent in September, after falling 2.5 percent in August. The decrease was mostly the result of an 8.3-percent drop in soybean prices, although a 4.3-percent decline in nut prices also contributed to falling export agricultural prices. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 13.5 percent for the year ended in September. Declining prices for meat, soybeans, and wheat over the past year primarily drove the drop.

Soybeans



Live Cattle



Word About "The Unexpected"

One might think that economists estimating export prices would be following the price of grains, soybeans, cattle, etc.

Do they? Or do they just pull guesses out of the air?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Sorting the European Far Left from the Far Right: 10 Comments - Can You Tell Left From Right?

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 07:57 AM PDT

In recent speeches in European parliament, press articles, or tweets can you tell whether the listed statements below were from the far left or the far right?

Here are the candidates.



Quiz statements below are as presented in Spanish newspaper Libre Mercado. I made slight translation changes for ease in reading, some from Google translate, some from translate.com. I also removed an identifying political party reference from one statement.

A key phrase in each statement has an identifying link. Without looking, who said what?

  1. "We are participating in a spiral of endless austerity to save the euro and the German model of low wages"
  2. "The people reject EU finance ministers which dictate how solidarity and living conditions have to be understood"
  3. "Under pressure from Germany, the will of the Greek people has been trampled."
  4. "The interest in our country is not to abdicate to Mr. Schauble to set the continent's economic policy. The interest of our country is not subject to a firm policy in Berlin, Brussels and Washington."
  5. "The real sword hanging over our heads is austerity, and under austerity we fail to defend our values."
  6. "Thank you, Mrs. Merkel come with your vice-chancellor, administer of the province of France, Francois Hollande."
  7. "To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, we deserve an alternative in Europe."
  8. "Austerity is synonymous with massive unemployment, insecurity and the collapse of our welfare system. "
  9. "The Eurogroup has brutally blackmailed Greece but despite that, the Greek people have not lost confidence in Syriza"
  10. "The defense of German interests do not justify the subjugation of other European peoples. Your model [Merkel and Hollande] is subjugation to the US, austerity and unfair competition."

Far Right - Marine Le Pen: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
Far Left - Gabi Zimmer - 2, 5, 9
Far Left - Pablo Iglesias - 7 

Statement 7 originally said "To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, and to PP and PSOE, we deserve an alternative in Europe."

This was not an easy quiz. In fact, unless one heard the speeches or followed the tweets, it was damn near impossible. And that's precisely the point.

The far left and far right are both fed up with the EU. Some positions are indistinguishable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock