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Look around. You're not number one on that bestseller list, or chosen for this RFP or invited to give that talk.
It's frustrating. There are engagements you ought to have, sales you ought to be making, clients that ought to understand you...
One choice is to spend today frustrated that you're not winning with the product you have for the market you've chosen.
The other choice is to focus on what you need to do today to win tomorrow.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 03 Jun 2012 05:05 PM PDT The preponderance of recent Greek polls show a tight election. However, the latest Public Issue Survey stands out, and I happen to think that is the most accurate one. Please consider Going into final stretch, SYRIZA builds poll lead In the last opinion poll to be published by Kathimerini before the June 17 elections, leftist SYRIZA maintains a clear lead over New Democracy, although short of enough support for a clear parliamentary majority.What's Lagarde's Game? In Harsh Language from Lagarde: "IMF Has No Intention of Softening Terms"; From Head of Deutsche Bank: "Greece is a Failed Corrupt State" I expressed the viewpoint that remarks by Lagarde and Deutsche Bank were "purposefully Inflammatory". I see no reason to change my mind about the statements made by Deutsche Bank. Is the apology by Lagarde an admission of a huge gaffe? Possibly but take a look at the statement once again. In an uncompromising interview with the Guardian, Lagarde made it clear that the IMF has no intention of softening the terms of the country's austerity package. Asked whether she is able to block out of her mind the mothers unable to get access to midwives or patients unable to obtain life-saving drugs, Lagarde replies: "I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens."Those statements are clearly quite inflammatory. Regardless of her intention, I strongly believe those statements will swing votes to Syriza. Numbers Add Up for Syriza? Kathimerini has additional details on the latest polls in Are the numbers starting to add up for SYRIZA? For all the fluctuations polls showed in the support for SYRIZA and ND, PASOK has remained anchored to its feeble showing on May 6. The Socialists have hardly moved from around 13 percent and seem unable to convince their former supporters to return to the fold. In contrast, Democratic Left shows a modest rise, but this has not come at the expense of SYRIZA. There has been a drastic fall in the number of people intending to vote for parties that won't get into Parliament. If SYRIZA and Democratic Left are drawing support from this pool and not from each other, then Tsipras's party doesn't face a strong threat from the left side of the political spectrum.New York Times Has Different Results The New York Times reports matters much differently in UPDATE: Greek Conservatives Lead In Three Final Polls Before Vote Greece's conservative New Democracy Party led the radical left Syriza Party in three polls released Friday, the last to be published before crucial June 17 elections that are widely seen as a de facto referendum on the country's future inside the euro zone.Throw the Bums Out European voters have an overwhelming tendency to throw the bums out.
Expect Syriza to Win Take the tendency to blame the party in power along with the fact that New Democracy and Pasok have been ruling Greece for years, then add in the exceptionally inflammatory remarks by Lagarde, and one should expect Syriza to be in the lead. I rate Syriza a 2-1 favorite to win the election with a similar chance of actually forming a coalition government if they do. If so, Greece will default on payments to the Troika, and funds to Greece will be shut off. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Another Meaningless Nannycrat Rumor: Europe Mulls "Secret Plan for New Europe" Posted: 03 Jun 2012 11:45 AM PDT A story is making the rounds that suggests leaders are going to get together and hammer out a "fiscal union". The story appears to have originated on the Welt Online, a German tabloid. The article mentions a Secret Plan for a New Europe. EU institutions should design the master planMore Holes Than Swiss Cheese One look at the nannycrat participants led by Van Rompuy and Jean-Claude "lie when it's serious" Juncker, is all you need to do to know the plan has far more holes than Swiss Lorraine cheese. I would have thought that no one could possibly take this seriously, even if such a meeting were agreed to. Note that the Financial Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal did not bite on this story, but Libre Mercado came out with its version: The German 'Die Welt' reveals a "Secret Plan for a New Europe". El Economista says EU, ECB and Eurogroup working on a comprehensive plan for a new Europe. Rumor Spreads To show you how rumors spread, Reuters has picked up on this silly story in Europe mulls major step towards "fiscal union" After falling short with her "fiscal compact" on budget discipline, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressing for much more ambitious measures, including a central authority to manage euro area finances, and major new powers for the European Commission, European Parliament and European Court of Justice.Nothing But Hot Air The "meat on the bones will come in the second half of 2012". The plan is "so secret" that no one has any details now other than an alleged proposal to agree to agree sometime down the road. This is what it boils down to: The secret plan is to develop a secret plan at the already scheduled June summit. Yeah right. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 03 Jun 2012 08:16 AM PDT Add Stockton, California (population 292,000) to the list of cities bankrupted because of bad management and over-generous public union wages and benefits. Please consider New Stockton City Hall building seized by Wells Fargo; city preps bankruptcy contingency plan The Stockton City Council announced Wednesday that they will look at bankruptcy contingency plans after Wells Fargo seized the new city hall building. Incompetent City Management and Unions to Blame The firefighters' union put together a list of 10 wasteful things the city has done wrong totally about $116 million, including $48 million for the new city hall. $417 Million Healthcare Liability The union does not tell you that Stockton has a $417 million liability for its "pay-as-you go retiree health care system" And that's just healthcare. What about pensions and untenable salaries? So who is more to blame here? Bondholder Mediation Mediation with bondholders and unions is now underway, the outcome of which will determine whether or not the city files for bankruptcy. Recordnet reports Wealth of interest in Stockton mediation Wall Street lawyers are likely taking the hardest line in mediation with Stockton, waiting for the closed-door talks to play out with their arms folded, but seated at the table.My Take? The best course of action for the city is to seek bankruptcy. The city is indeed clearly bankrupt so there is no point in delaying. Delays will only serve the bondholders at taxpayer expense. In bankruptcy court, the city should win the right to unilaterally modify the pension and healthcare agreements made with public union workers as well as terminate all collective bargaining rights. 50% or even 75% haircuts on pension and healthcare plans may be necessary. So be it. Bondholders must also take a hit. I suggest 100% on the new city hall (minus whatever it can recover from the seized building). Wells Fargo deserves to be punished for being stupid enough to lend Stockton money. Inquirung minds should also consider City Council of North Las Vegas Unanimously Suspends Collectively Bargaining of Public Unions, Citing Emergency Statutes. If Stockton files bankruptcy it will be the largest city in the US to seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Don't worry, that record will fall soon enough. LA and Oakland cannot be that far behind. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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In his famous experiment, Stanley Milgram gave his subjects a switch and then encouraged them to give (fake) electric shocks to his confederates if they were slow to follow instructions.
The internet has become a giant version of this, except the shocks are real.
You give people a switch and they can shock you whenever they choose, disrupt your day, cloud your horizons and generally make you feel like a failure.
Of course, that switch has always been given to certain members of your family or co-workers or teachers. But now, thanks to the ability of a total stranger to dump his anxiety or anger on you, the switch is easily handed to hundreds or thousands of people.
Extending the circle of people who are able to zap you is human nature. It's easy to do and tempting, too (because it feels as though you're gaining the ability to have others approve of you). On balance, my guess is that a large number of strangers holding on to electric shock buttons is a dangerous situation. But it's up to you.
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Posted: 02 Jun 2012 10:46 PM PDT The city council of North Las Vegas, the 4th largest city in Nevada (population 216,961) voted unanimously to suspend collective bargaining agreements made with public unions. In spite of having the highest property tax rates in the county, the city's budget is in a mess, wrecked by the busting of the housing bubble. According to Wikipedia the city's budget deficit was $8.6 million. A budget balanced through personnel layoffs was passed last May, but judges reversed some of those pink slips, creating a financial emergency that could require the state to take over North Las Vegas' finances. In response, the city decided to take matters into its own hands. City Manager Tim Hacker said the city was in a state of emergency and cited Nevada law NRS 288.150(4) "A local government employer is entitled to take whatever actions may be necessary to carry out its responsibilities in situations of emergency.....such as a riot, military action, natural disaster or civil disorder." With NRS 288.150(4) as the rationale, the city council unanimously passed Resolution 2475 suspending collective bargaining agreements as follows. Resolution 2475 temporarily suspends certain terms of the City's existing collective bargaining agreements with the North Las Vegas Police Officers Association ("POA"), the North Las Vegas Police Supervisors Association ("PSA") and the International Association of Firefighters Local #1604 ("IAFF") beginning July 1, 2012. The suspended terms include only those that have the affect of increasing the City's labor costs in FY 2012/2013 including cost of living adjustments, merit pay, holiday sell-back pay and uniform pay.I commend the actions of the North Las Vegas. Unions are up in arms, but they are the one who helped wreck the city. Municipal Bankruptcy Not An Option Unfortunately, municipal bankruptcy is not allowed in Nevada. However, should unions press the case, the city has one more possibility, disincorporation. It would be perfectly fitting if it came to disincorporation and the unions were totally dissolved. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 02 Jun 2012 02:42 PM PDT Germany and Spain are both digging in their heels. Courtesy of el Economista and Google Translate, please consider Germany pressed for Spain to resort to bailout fund. German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, have pressured the Spanish owner of Economy, Luis de Guindos, for Spain to resort to European rescue fund, fearing that fails to stay afloat on its own.More Doublespeak Who the hell do Merkel and Schäuble think they are fooling? How can one express confidence in Spain while simultaneously pressuring Spain to accept a bailout? For more on Orwellian doublespeak, please see Edge of a Precipice; Doublethink Extraordinaire; Spain in Discussions With US Regarding Bank Aid; Gold Soars; Geithner to the Rescue? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 02 Jun 2012 09:33 AM PDT On Saturday, Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy Asked For a Eurozone Fiscal Authority, in effect the "Fiscal Nannyzone" that I have spoken about on numerous occasions. Spain on Saturday proposed the set up a new fiscal authority in the euro zone which would control and harmonize national budgets and manage the European debts.Obama Seeks End to "Crisis Cloud" Bloomberg reports Merkel Rejects Debt Sharing as Obama Urges End to Crisis Cloud German Chancellor Angela Merkel hardened her opposition to joint debt sharing in the euro region as President Barack Obama singled out Europe's leaders for not doing enough to stop the financial crisis.Cloud? What Cloud? Clouds are imaginary. The markets have cast a clear sunshine vote that the euro is a failure. Since the euro itself is the problem, the only clouds anyone can see stem from nannyzone proponents insisting at any and all costs to hold this untenable structure together. Recall that when the economies of Spain and Ireland were artificially booming fueled by two of the biggest property bubbles in the entire world, the IMF, eurocrats in Brussels, and misguided economic fools everywhere were cheering the growth in those countries. Contagion-Causing Policies Nannycrats did not see this coming last time and they will not see the mess coming the next time either. Heck, they cannot even see the mess the LTRO has made now. Nor can they see just how counterproductive and contagion-causing their own policies have been. Somehow these nannycrats are supposed to prevent messes?! Please be serious. The only thing nannycrats will do, were the idea ever to gain traction, would be to sink all of Europe into a permanent mess. Nannycrat Flashback For my original post on the Nannyzone written June 2, 2011, precisely one year ago today, please see Trichet Calls for Creation of European "Nanny-State" and Fiscal "Nanny-Zone" Even if such a proposal were possible, it would require a whole new treaty, and a constitutional vote in Germany, Ireland, and other countries. Fortunately, Rajoy's proposal is dead-on-arrival. Thus, it is time to focus on reality, instead of imaginary clouds. The reality is the eurozone is going to bust up and nannycrats better get used to the idea or the markets will impose that break-up in their own messy way. Addendum on the Nannycrats and the Nannyzone Reader Stan says .. Rajoy says he wants this "Nannyzone", but would he actually obey the dictates of the Nannycrats if they ordered Spain to live within it's means? I doubt it. He wants the Nannycrats to tell Germans they must subsidize the PIIGS, but he wouldn't care for Nannycrats telling PIIGS to balance their budgets.Exactly! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 02 Jun 2012 12:22 AM PDT Morgan Stanley's corporate borrowing costs are already way higher than Goldman Sachs and more downgrades are likely in the works. The Fiscal Times explains How Morgan Stanley sank to junk pricing The bond markets are treating Morgan Stanley like a junk-rated company, and the investment bank's higher borrowing costs could already be putting it at a disadvantage even before an expected ratings downgrade this month.Will Morgan Stanley Survive? My answer is the same as I said about Citigroup in 2007: Not in one piece. And in spite of shedding numerous pieces over the years, Citigroup and others still have shedding to do. JP Morgan added fat to the fire with massive derivatives losses, bringing the Volcker Rule back in the spotlight. Top 5 Banks Have 45 Times Leverage Reuters reports JPMorgan case puts Volcker Rule and SIFIs back in the spotlight The massive losses which resulted from JPMorgan Chase hedging its positions against derivatives has once again cast the spotlight on the Volcker Rule and whether systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) are too big to fail, industry observers said. Questions have also been raised about the firm's hedging strategy, and what constitutes hedging in the first place.If regulators get really serious about enforcing the Volcker rule, none of the top financial institutions will survive in one piece. Actually, they will all breakup regardless. At some point the derivatives time-bomb will go off, and that will take care of matters so to speak. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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