joi, 24 ianuarie 2013

Photo Gallery: Behind the Scenes at Inauguration

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, January 24, 2013
 


Reminder: Tune in to WhiteHouse.gov at 1:45 p.m. EST for a Google+ Hangout with Vice President Biden.

Photo Gallery: Behind the Scenes at Inauguration

After delivering his inaugural address, President Obama took a moment to look out at the scene on the National Mall. "I want to take a look one more time," the President said.

Check out a photo gallery with some of Inauguration's best moments.

President Barack Obama pauses to look back at the scene before leaving the platform following the inaugural swearing-in ceremony at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Jan. 21, 2013. Standing behind the President are First Lady Michelle Obama, daughters Malia and Sasha, and Marian Robinson. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

President Barack Obama pauses to look back at the scene before leaving the platform following the inaugural swearing-in ceremony at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Jan. 21, 2013. Standing behind the President are First Lady Michelle Obama, daughters Malia and Sasha, and Marian Robinson. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Fireside Hangouts: Vice President Biden Joins a Conversation on Reducing Gun Violence
Today, January 24 at 1:45 p.m. ET, Vice President Biden will host the latest “Fireside Hangout” – a 21st century take on FDR’s famous radio addresses – to talk about reducing gun violence.

Surprise! President and Mrs. Obama Greet White House Tour (Bo Was There, Too)
The President and First Lady welcomed the guests with handshakes, hugs and even fistbumps, and Bo was treated to a near-constant stream of affectionate pats and petting.

Be a Part of the Next Four Years
The President's second term will offer many ways for citizens to participate in conversations with the President and his team about the issues that are most important to them.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:45 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

1:45 PM: The Vice President will participate in a live Google+ Hangout WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:30 PM: The President makes a personnel announcement WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:35 PM: The President meets with Secretary of State Clinton

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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25 Killer Combos for Google's Site: Operator

25 Killer Combos for Google's Site: Operator


25 Killer Combos for Google's Site: Operator

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 05:11 PM PST

Posted by Dr. Pete

There’s an app for everything – the problem is that we’re so busy chasing the newest shiny toy that we rarely stop to learn to use simple tools well. As a technical SEO, one of the tools I seem to never stop finding new uses for is the site: operator. I recently devoted a few slides to it in my BlueGlassX presentation, but I realized that those 5 minutes were just a tiny slice of all of the uses I’ve found over the years.

People often complain that site:, by itself, is inaccurate (I’ll talk about that more at the end of the post), but the magic is in the combination of site: with other query operators. So, I’ve come up with two dozen killer combos that can help you dive deep into any site.

1. site:example.com

Ok, this one’s not really a combination, but let’s start with the basics. Paired with a root domain or sub-domain, the [site:] operator returns an estimated count of the number of indexed pages for that domain. The “estimated” part is important, but we’ll get to that later. For a big picture, I generally stick to the root domain (leave out the “www”, etc.).

Each combo in this post will have a clickable example (see below). I'm picking on Amazon.com in my examples, because they're big enough for all of these combos to come into play:

You’ll end up with two bits of information: (1) the actual list of pages in the index, and (2) the count of those pages (circled in purple below):

Screenshot - site:amazon.com

I think we can all agree that 273,000,000 results is a whole lot more than most of us would want to sort through. Even if we wanted to do that much clicking, Google would stop us after 100 pages. So, how can we get more sophisticated and drill down into the Google index?

2. site:example.com/folder

The simplest way to dive deeper into this mess is to provide a sub-folder (like “/blog”) – just append it to the end of the root domain. Don’t let the simplicity of this combo fool you – if you know a site’s basic architecture, you can use it to drill down into the index quickly and spot crawl problems.

3. site:sub.example.com

You can also drill down into specific sub-domains. Just use the full sub-domain in the query. I generally start with #1 to sweep up all sub-domains, but #3 can be very useful for situations like tracking down a development or staging sub-domain that may have been accidentally crawled.

4. site:example.com inurl:www

The "inurl:" operator searches for specific text in the indexed URLs. You can pair “site:” with “inurl:” to find the sub-domain in the full URL. Why would you use this instead of #3? On the one hand, "inurl:" will look for the text anywhere in the URL, including the folder and page/file names. For tracking sub-domains this may not be desirable. However, "inurl:" is much more flexible than putting the sub-domain directly into the main query. You'll see why in examples #5 and #6.

5. site:example.com -inurl:www

Adding [-] to most operators tells Google to search for anything but that particular text. In this case, by separating out "inurl:www", you can change it to "-inurl:www" and find any indexed URLs that are not on the "www" sub-domain. If "www" is your canonical sub-domain, this can be very useful for finding non-canonical URLs that Google may have crawled.

6. site:example.com -inurl:www -inurl:dev -inurl:shop

I'm not going to list every possible combination of Google operators, but keep in mind that you can chain most operators. Let's say you suspect there are some stray sub-domains, but you aren't sure what they are. You are, however, aware of "www.", "dev." and "shop.". You can chain multiple "-inurl:" operators to remove all of these known sub-domains from the query, leaving you with a list of any stragglers.

7. site:example.com inurl:https

You can't put a protocol directly into "site:" (e.g. "https:", "ftp:", etc.). Fortunately, you can put "https" into an "inurl:" operator, allowing you to see any secure pages that Google has indexed. As with all "inurl:" queries, this will find "https" anywhere in the URL, but it's relatively rare to see it somewhere other than the protocol.

8. site:example.com inurl:param

URL parameters can be a Panda's dream. If you're worried about something like search sorts, filters, or pagination, and your site uses URL parameters to create those pages, then you can use "inurl:" plus the parameter name to track them down. Again, keep in mind that Google will look for that name anywhere in the URL, which can occasionally cause headaches.

Pro Tip: Try out the example above, and you'll notice that "inurl:ref" returns any URL with "ref" in it, not just traditional URL parameters. Be careful when searching for a parameter that is also a common word.

9. site:example.com -inurl:param

Maybe you want to know how many search pages are being indexed without sorts or how many product pages Google is tracking with no size or color selection – just add [-] to your "inurl:" statement to exclude that parameter. Keep in mind that you can combine "inurl:" with "-inurl:", specifically including some parameters and excluding others. For complex, e-commerce sites, these two combos alone can have dozens of uses.

10. site:example.com text goes here

Of course, you can alway combine the "site:" operator with a plain-old, text query. This will search the contents of the entire page within the given site. Like standard queries, this is essentially a logical [AND], but it's a bit of a loose [AND] – Google will try to match all terms, but those terms may be separated on the page or you may get back results that only include some of the terms. You'll see that the example below matches the phrase "free Kindle books" but also phrases like "free books on Kindle".

11. site:example.com “text goes here”

If you want to search for an exact-match phrase, put it in quotes. This simple combination can be extremely useful for tracking down duplicate and near-duplicate copy on your site. If you're worried about one of your product descriptions being repeated across dozens of pages, for example, pull out a few unique terms and put them in quotes.

12. site:example.com/folder “text goes here”

This is just a reminder that you can combine text (with or without quotes) with almost any of the combinations previously discussed. Narrow your query to just your blog or your store pages, for example, to really target your search for duplicates.

13. site:example.com this OR that

If you specifically want a logical [OR], Google does support use of "or" in queries. In this case, you'd get back any pages indexed on the domain that contained either "this" or "that" (or both, as with any logical [OR]). This can be very useful if you've forgotten exactly which term you used or are searching for a family of keywords.

14. site:example.com “top * ways”

The asterisk [*] can be used as a wildcard in Google queries to replace unknown text. Let's say you want to find all of the "Top X" posts on your blog. You could use "site:" to target your blog folder and then "Top *" to query only those posts.

Pro Tip: The wild'card [*] operator will match one or multiple words. So, "top * questions" can match "Top 40 Books" or "Top Career Management Books". Try the sample query above for more examples.

15. site:example.com “top 7..10 ways”

If you have a specific range of numbers in mind, you can use "X..Y" to return anything in the range from X to Y. While the example above is probably a bit silly, you can use ranges across any kind of on-page data, from product IDs to prices.

16. site:example.com ~word

The tilde [~] operator tells Google to find words related to the word in question. Let's say you wanted to find all of the posts on your blog related to the concept of consulting – just add "~consulting" to the query, and you'll get the wider set of terms that Google thinks are relevant.

17. site:example.com ~word -word

By using [-] to exclude the specific word, you can tell Google to find any pages related to the concept that don't specifically target that term. This can be useful when you're trying to assess your keyword targeting or create new content based on keyword research.

18. site:example.com intitle:”text goes here”

The "intitle:" operator only matches text that appears in the <TITLE></TITLE> tag. One of the first spot-checks I do on any technical SEO audit is to use this tactic with the home-page title (or a unique phrase from it). It can be incredibly useful for quickly finding major duplicate content problems.

19. site:example.com intitle:”text * here”

You can use almost any of the variations mentioned in (12)-(17) with "intitle:" – I won't list them all, but don't be afraid to get creative. Here's an example that uses the wildcard search in #14, but targets it specifically to page titles.

Pro Tip: Remember to use quotes around the phrase after "intitle:", or Google will view the query as a one-word title search plus straight text. For example, "intitle:text goes here" will look for "text" in the title plus "goes" and "here" anywhere on the page.

20. intitle:”text goes here”

This one's not really a "site:" combo, but it's so useful that I had to include it. Are you suspicious that other sites may be copying your content? Just put any unique phrase in quotes after "intitle:" and you can find copies across the entire web. This is the fastest and cheapest way I've found to find people who have stolen your content. It's also a good way to make sure your article titles are unique.

21. “text goes here” -site:example.com

If you want to get a bit more sophisticated, you can use "-site:" and exclude mentions of copy on any domain (including your own). This can be used with straight text or with "intitle:" (like in #20). Including your own site can be useful, just to get a sense of where your ranking ability stacks up, but subtracting out your site allows you to see only the copies.

22. site:example.com intext:”text goes here”

The "intext:" operator looks for keywords in the body of the document, but doesn't search the <TITLE> tag. The text could appear in the title, but Google won't look for it there. Oddly, "intext:" will match keywords in the URL (seems like a glitch to me, but I don't make the rules).

23. site:example.com ”text goes here” -intitle:"text goes here"

You might think that #22 and #23 are the same, but there's a subtle difference. If you use "intext:", Google will ignore the <TITLE> tag, but it won't specifically remove anything with "text goes here" in the title. If you specfically want to remove any title mentions in your results, then use "-intitle:".

24. site:example.com filetype:pdf

One of the drawbacks of "inurl:" is that it will match any string in the URL. So, for example, searching on "inurl:pdf", could return a page called "/guide-to-creating-a-great-pdf". By using "filetype:", you can specify that Google only search on the file extension. Google can detect some filetypes (like PDFs) even without a ".pdf" extension, but others (like "html") seem to require a file extension in the indexed document.

25. site:.edu “text goes here”

Finally, you can target just the Top-Level Domain (TLD), by leaving out the root domain. This is more useful for link-building and competitive research than on-page SEO, but it's definitely worth mentioning. One of our community members, Himanshu, has an excellent post on his own blog about using advanced query operators for link-building.

Why No Allintitle: & Allinurl:?

Experienced SEOs may be wondering why I left out the operators "allintitle:" and "allinurl:" – the short answer is that I've found them increasingly unreliable over the past couple of years. Using "intitle:" or "inurl:" with your keywords in quotes is generally more predictable and just as effective, in my opinion.


Putting It All to Work

I want to give you a quick case study to show that these combos aren't just parlor tricks. I once worked with a fairly large site that we thought was hit by Panda. It was an e-commerce site that allowed members to spin off their own stores (think Etsy, but in a much different industry). I discovered something very interesting just by using "site:" combos (all URLs are fictional, to protect the client):

(1) site:example.com = 11M

First, I found that the site had a very large number (11 million) of indexed pages, especially relative to its overall authority. So, I quickly looked at the site architecture and found a number of sub-folders. One of them was the "/stores" sub-folder, which contained all of the member-created stores:

(2) site:example.com/stores = 8.4M

Over 8 million pages in Google's index were coming just from those customer stores, many of which were empty. I was clearly on the right track. Finally, simply by browsing a few of those stores, I noticed that every member-created store had its own internal search filters, all of which used the "?filter" parameter in the URL. So, I narrowed it down a bit more:

(3) site:example.com/stores inurl:filter = 6.7M

Over 60% of the indexed pages for this site were coming from search filters on user-generated content. Obviously, this was just the beginning of my work, but I found a critical issue on a very large site in less than 30 minutes, just by using a few simple query operator combos. It didn't take an 8-hour desktop crawl or millions of rows of Excel data – I just had to use some logic and ask the right questions.


How Accurate Is Site:?

Historically, some SEOs have complained that the numbers you get from "site:" can vary wildly across time and data centers. Let's cut to the chase: they're absolutely right. You shouldn't take any single number you get back as absolute truth. I ran an experiment recently to put this to the test. Every 10 minutes for 24 hours, I automatically queried the following:

  1. site:seomoz.org
  2. site:seomoz.org/blog
  3. site:seomoz.org/blog intitle:spam

Even using a fixed IP address (single data center, presumably), the results varied quite a bit, especially for the broad queries. The range for each of the "site:" combos across 24 hours (144 measurements) was as follows:

  1. 67,700 – 114,000
  2. 8,590 – 8620
  3. 40 – 40

Across two sets of IPs (unique C-blocks), the range was even larger (see the "/blog" data):

  1. 67,700 – 114,000
  2. 4,580 – 8620
  3. 40 – 40

Does that mean that "site:" is useless? No, not at all. You just have to be careful. Sometimes, you don't even need the exact count – you're just interested in finding examples of URLs that match the pattern in question. Even if you need a count, the key is to drill down. The narrowest range in the experiment was completely consistent across 24 hours and both data centers. The more you drill down, the better off you are.

You can also use relative numbers. In my example above, it didn't really matter if the 11M total indexed page count was accurate. What mattered was that I was able to isolate a large section of the index based on one common piece of site architecture. Assumedly, the margin of error for each of those measurements was similar – I was only interested in the relative percentages at each step. When in doubt, take more than one measurement.

Keep in mind that this problem isn't unique to the "site:" operator – all search result counts on Google are estimates, especially the larger numbers. Matt Cutts discussed this in a recent video, along with how you can use the page 2 count to sometimes reduce the margin of error:


The True Test of An SEO

If you run enough "site:" combos often enough, even by hand, you may eventually be greeted with this:

Google Captcha

If you managed to trigger a CAPTCHA without using automation, then congratulations, my friend! You're a real SEO now. Enjoy your new tools, and try not to hurt anyone.


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Answer Customer Needs by Building a Customer Advisory Board

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 05:13 AM PST

Posted by JackieRae

We sure do love feedback at Moz. One of our biggest contributors to feedback is our Customer Advisory Board (which we lovingly call CAB). Who doesn’t love sharing the work they do with a group of awesome people, hearing their insights, and learning how to provide the most value to users based on their feedback?

Dana Lookadoo sporting her Customer Advisory Board shirt at MozCon.

A few weeks ago, our VP of Growth Marketing, Joanna Lord, did a Whiteboard Friday about 10 Ways to Get Feedback. I’d love to expand on this topic and share how we developed our CAB, what's worked well, and how we've improved.

Framing the CAB

We started the process of creating our Board over a year ago. Fortunately, our Director of Product, Samantha Britney, already had a fabulous framework formulated for us (how’s that for alliteration). It was important for us to flesh out and gather ideas in a document so we could define the purpose of the CAB, understand what it would take to be successful, and mitigate any risks that might occur.

First, we defined the purpose. Our Board members would weigh-in and validate product decisions, and they would provide feedback during early stages of product planning and design. The feedback gathered from the Board would need to be strategic and tactical, and would be used to help unveil any issues that may arise and expand on ideas we might not have thought about yet. We also wanted to develop relationships with folks in the industry in order to better understand our customers' needs. Finally, if CAB members love the work that we do, they may, over time, turn into our biggest evangelists.

Once our goals were set, it was time to move on to the "what ifs" of implementing this new program. There were a few risks we acknowledged before creating the Customer Advisory Board, which allowed us to think critically about the feedback we would received. For example, many of our contacts are relatively close to our company, brand, and/or product. This is awesome! However, their feedback might be swayed by their preconceptions about us and potentially lead to “group think.” We took steps to move away from these notions and help keep our CAB members neutral.

It was also important to set goals to ensure that our CAB was functioning like we intended it to. We defined indicators to use as benchmarks, such as participation of the CAB, quality of the feedback loops, and amount of CAB member's time we use (that last one was important, because we didn’t want to violate any promises we made to those helping us). This allowed us to gauge our success and to determine when it was time to revise our original framework.

Selecting the team

The final piece of our framework was to list the type of candidate we want to engage with. We used written "personas" to group potential candidates into more manageable sectors during our selection process. We originally called for 20-25 people (although the number has currently been upped to 35). These CAB members are open and honest with us, even if they provide negative feedback. They represent a diverse segment of our users and work in small to large companies, from in-house SEO’s to independent consultants.

To make the selection process as neutral as possible, we compiled of a list of candidates from internal recommendations, active community members, and folks who gave feedback to our Product Team in the past to make our final selections. With our final group, we were sure that we would not only hear praise, but would be provided with a significant amount of "tough love" that was needed to make the CAB project a success.

CAB members challenge us, allowing us to make better products. 

Getting to know our CAB

Now that you know the driving factors behind our process, it's time to learn a little bit more about who makes up our Customer Advisory Board.

The folks on our Board have very different backgrounds, areas of expertise, and passions, which means their feedback can be quite diverse. When a CAB member first joins, we ask them to fill out a little “getting to know you” survey. The goal is to understand that no two people are going to want the same thing, and it helps set context around the feedback that we receive.

We have 35 CAB members from seven different countries, including the U.S., Portugal, Spain, England, Austria, Australia, Brazil, and Canada. They’ve been customers of SEOmoz’s anywhere from 1 to 6 years, and some have more experience with our brand and product than others. They work in different a variety of  different environments so we can field customer needs from all sides of the inbound marketing process.

Every CAB member has different expectations at work.

So, have we been successful?

Success? I think YES! We’ve had several formal feedback loops (11 and counting), and many more informal conversations with our Customer Advisory Board members. From these meetings, we've been able to collect the following data:

  • Of the original 15 members that joined, all 15 are still active members.
  • We have an average of 9 out of 10 Customer Advisory Board members giving feedback when asked (although we’re getting closer to 9.5 out of 10!).
  • Every member that opts-in to a feedback loop (whether the loop is a survey, email, or in-person interview) has finished the feedback loop.
  • We've found the feedback is so useful that we went a step further and created a Local Customer Advisory Board for GetListed last month.

We've been thrilled with the success of our CAB so far. Though it took some time to get this process in place, our gains from answering to and gaining feedback from our CAB have far outweighed the time and effort it took to get it up and running. 

A quick thanks

Our Customer Advisory Board is doing us a huge favor by putting in time and energy towards keeping us awesome. We constantly bounce ideas off of them, show them product plans, introduce crazy new content and designs, and the list goes on and on. We are benefiting from their help in a million ways. CAB members help drive us to success (pun intended). To all our CAB members, THANK YOU!

Does your team have a Customer Advisory Board? What are the results you've seen? Please leave your tips and thoughts in the comments below!


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Watch Joe Biden at 1:45 PM ET

The White House Thursday, January 24, 2013
 

Watch Joe Biden at 1:45 PM ET

Before Vice President Joe Biden introduced a set of ideas to help reduce gun violence, he kicked off a national conversation. He wanted to make sure that he heard from people from every perspective about the steps we need to take to protect kids and make our communities safer.

And that dialogue isn't over.

Today, in a hangout hosted by Google and moderated by Hari Sreenivasan from PBS NewsHour, Vice President Biden will speak with a group of Google+ users about the White House policy recommendations and answer their questions. And we want you to join us.

What: Google+ Hangout with Vice President Joe Biden

When: Thursday, January 24 at 1:45 PM ET

Where: Live on WhiteHouse.gov

Watch the Vice President's Hangout

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Seth's Blog : Ideal, average and outlier

 

Ideal, average and outlier

Generalizations are the heart of marketing decision-making. When we look at an audience--customers, prospects, constituents--we make decisions on the whole based on our assumptions about the individuals within the group.

But are we basing those generalizations on our vision of the ideal member of the tribe, the average member or the outlier who got our attention?

It's easy, for example, to defend high-priced famous colleges if you focus on the ideal situation. The ideal student, getting instruction from the ideal professor and making ideal progress. No one can argue with this.

On the other hand, when we see the outlier (the person who is manipulating the system, or the one who is being harmed by it) it's easy to generalize in precisely the other direction, deciding that the entire system isn't worth saving.

And finally, it's tempting to rely on the average, to boil down populations of people into simple numbers. The problem with this, of course, is that if one foot is in a bucket of ice water and the other is being scalded, on average, you should be comfortable.

Before we start making decisions about markets, tribes and policy, we need to get clear about which signals we're using and what we're trying to focus on or improve.



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miercuri, 23 ianuarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China Flash PMI at 2-Year High; Don't Expect Too Much More

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 06:54 PM PST

China manufacturing PMI is at a 24 month high. At 51.9, it's not all that much to get terribly excited about, nor is it all that unexpected.

Nonetheless, conditions show a temporary rise following a lengthy bout of contraction.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ shows Operating conditions improve at the quickest pace in two years.
Key Points

Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 51.9 (51.5 in December). 24-month high.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 52.2 (51.9 in December). 22-month high.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"At 51.9, January's HSBC China manufacturing PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to the highest level in two-years, heralding a good start to the New Year. Thanks to the continuous gains in new business, manufacturers accelerated production by additional hiring and more purchases. Despite the still tepid external demand, the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery in the coming months."
"Steam to the Recovery?"

I will take the other side of the steam to the recovery thesis. You cannot build much steam on inventory replenishment with weak (and weakening) external demand. Any steam needs to come from internal demand, and not internal demand caused by artificial stimulus measures.

Unfortunately artificial stimulus is all there is. I commented on this uptick in advance. For discussion, please see in Pettis: Nine Things to Watch in 2013; Unwarranted Outbreak of Optimism in China and Europe; The Great Rebalancing.

All is not what it seems. With China, it seldom is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Why I'm a Deflationist Who Likes Gold - Interview on Goldmoney

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:40 AM PST

On Tuesday I had a nice opportunity to Chat with GoldMoney's Andrew Duncan.

I explain why I am a deflationist who likes gold, why most of the Austrians went wrong in ignoring credit, how hyperinflationists are too US-centric in their approaches, and why credit events are more likely (at least in the short-term) to happen in Japan, China, or Europe.

I also discuss currency wars, the deflationary forces of robots on jobs and the balance of trade. On the humorous side, I answer the question as to what I would do if I were put in charge of the Fed. 



Click on the top link for more GoldMoney podcasts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Top Gaining and Losing Jobs in the "Recovery"

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:21 AM PST

This is part three in a series of articles on jobs gained and lost since December 2007.

The first article was an interactive map from Tableau: Job Gains and Losses in the Recovery by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc).

The second article Job Gaining and Job Losing Industries 2007-2012 displayed data in an interesting pie chart fashion by Salil Mehta who has a blog on Statistical Ideas.

This article contains another look at the data, but focus is on jobs gained or lost in the recovery.


Data for all three posts is courtesy of Economic Modeling Specialists.

The recession ended in June of 2009, but the data I have is annual. Data in the following charts uses December of 2009 as a proxy for the start of the recovery. Once again, pie charts are by Salil Mehta.

Click on any chart for sharper image.

Top Losing Jobs in the Recovery



Top Gaining Jobs in the Recovery



For comparison purposes here are the December 2007 thru December 2012 charts once again.

Job Gaining Industries 2007-2012



Job Losing Industries 2007-2012



Notes

  • From 2007 thru 2012, 12 industries lost jobs.
  • Since December of 2009, there were only 5 industries that lost jobs (and utilities only barely).
  • As far as government jobs go, we can certainly afford to lose more.
  • Information was a solid job loser every period


Gainers vs. Losers Analysis

If one listens to all the ads from for-profit schools as well as retraining hype from President Obama, one might actually think we need more IT training. As I have stated repeatedly, one cannot retrain a brick-layer into a programmer. Besides, there is a vast sea of skilled programmers (already trained) who do not have a job.

I don't have a breakdown of healthcare and social services jobs, but the distinction between nurses, social workers and temporary care givers in terms of pay is without-a-doubt dramatic. I expect the economy added far more lower paying jobs than it did high-paying registered nursing jobs.

Accommodation and food service jobs certainly tend to be low-paying jobs. Indeed, many food service jobs are part-time only, with no benefits at all. I suspect most waste management jobs are low-paying jobs as well.

Compare the job gains in the recovery with job losses since 2007.

Construction, manufacturing, and information tend to be relatively high-pay jobs. In the period 2007-2012 the economy shed roughly 2.36 million construction jobs, 1.98 million manufacturing jobs, and 380,000 information jobs (a total of 4.69 million high-paying jobs). Note that construction and information lost jobs even in the recovery. 

Simply put, the US shed more high-paying jobs in the recession than the economy gained jobs of any kind (high or low-paying) in the recovery.

Involuntary Part-Time Employment



Part-Time Job Analysis

Its better to have a part-time job than no job. However, it's certainly better to have a full-time job than a part-time job if one is seeking full-time employment.

Roughly an additional 5 million workers went to involuntary part-time employment during or shortly after the recession. Only about one million of those jobs are now full-time, not necessarily in the same field, or at the previous pay scale.

Unemployment Rate Artificially Low

The official unemployment number is artificially low because it does not include any of the following:

  • Involuntary retirement to collect social security
  • Involuntary part-time-employment
  • Involuntarily education (e.g. kids remaining in school because there are no jobs)

My simple definition of unemployment is anyone who wants a jobs, is physically able to work a job, and does not have a job. By that definition, unemployment would certainly be North of 10%, and likely North of 11% (not even counting involuntary part-time employment).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

I am hosting an economic conference in April, in Sonoma.
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Let Elderly People 'Hurry Up and Die', says Japanese Finance Minister; "Heaven Forbid if You are Forced to Live"; Shades of Dr. Kevorkian

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:05 AM PST

Taro Aso, Japan's Finance Minister who has a serious problem with foot-in-mouth disease says Let Elderly People 'Hurry Up and Die'
Taro Aso said on Monday that the elderly should be allowed to "hurry up and die" to relieve pressure on the state to pay for their medical care.

"Heaven forbid if you are forced to live on when you want to die. I would wake up feeling increasingly bad knowing that [treatment] was all being paid for by the government," he said during a meeting of the national council on social security reforms. "The problem won't be solved unless you let them hurry up and die."

Aso's comments are likely to cause offence in Japan, where almost a quarter of the 128 million population is aged over 60. The proportion is forecast to rise to 40% over the next 50 years.

To compound the insult, he referred to elderly patients who are no longer able to feed themselves as "tube people". The health and welfare ministry, he added, was "well aware that it costs several tens of millions of yen" a month to treat a single patient in the final stages of life.

In 2008, while serving as prime minister, he described "doddering" pensioners as tax burdens who should take better care of their health.

In 2001, he said he wanted Japan to become the kind of successful country in which "the richest Jews would want to live".

He once likened an opposition party to the Nazis, praised Japan's colonial rule in Taiwan and, as foreign minister, told US diplomats they would never be trusted in Middle East peace negotiations because they have "blue eyes and blond hair".
Shades of Dr. Kevorkian

Judging from the insensitive nature of comments on health issues on top of all his previous gaffes, Aso is clearly unfit for office.

However, a couple things he stated make perfect sense. For example "Heaven forbid if you are forced to live on when you want to die."

That is the way I personally feel as well. It brings to mind Dr. Jack Kevorkian
Jacob "Jack" Kevorkian commonly known as "Dr. Death", was an American pathologist, euthanasia activist, painter, author, composer and instrumentalist. He is best known for publicly championing a terminal patient's right to die via physician-assisted suicide; he claimed to have assisted at least 130 patients to that end. He famously said, "dying is not a crime".

In 1999, Kevorkian was arrested and tried for his direct role in a case of voluntary euthanasia. He was convicted of second-degree murder and served eight years of a 10-to-25-year prison sentence. He was released on parole on June 1, 2007, on condition he would not offer suicide advice to any other person.
Dr. Jack Kevorkian's "60 Minutes" Interview

Please consider Dr. Jack Kevorkian's "60 Minutes" Interview which contains a video of Dr. K. himself injecting a patient who suffered from Lou Gehrig's disease, with a dose of lethal drugs.
Of all the interviews he conducted for "60 Minutes," Mike Wallace often said none had a greater impact than this one.

Dr. Jack Kevorkian had long been a public advocate of assisted suicide for the terminally ill. From 1990 to 1998, he claimed to have helped end the lives of some 130 willing subjects. In September of 1998, Dr. Jack Kevorkian videotaped himself injecting Thomas Youk, who suffered from Lou Gehrig's disease, with a dose of lethal drugs.


Whose Decision Is It?

To me this is a decision best left between an individual and a doctor, or an individual (and their family), and a doctor. I have signed papers saying I do not want to be artificially kept alive in certain situations.

When my mother died of cancer, my father was asked by the doctor "do you want us to try and revive her?" I faced a similar setup myself, when my wife Joanne died.

Terri Schiavo Case

Let's not forget the Terri Schiavo Case. By any practical measure, Terri Schiavo was dead. She had no functioning brain. Yet it took a 7 year battle for her husband to get the right to remove her feeding tube.

George Bush signed legislation to keep her alive. in 2003 Florida Governor Jed Bush signed "Terri's Law" forcing the state to keep a dead woman breathing against the wishes of her husband.

Many of the statements by Taro Aso are of a different nature but some reflect attitudes regarding interference by government that we have seen in the US.

What About Costs

Finally, there is an issue with costs. Even if someone wants to be kept alive, what are the bounds on costs? Does it make sense to spend millions of dollars to keep someone alive for another year?

At what point do we say "you get food, comfort care, and pain relievers" but that's it?

I do not have a precise answer but I can precisely say we need to have a serious discussion on the topic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish

I am hosting an economic conference in April, in Sonoma, California. Please consider attending.
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