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You don't know what to do
You don't know how to do it
You don't have the authority or the resources to do it
You're afraid
Once you figure out what's getting in the way, it's far easier to find the answer (or decide to work on a different problem).
Stuck is a state of mind, and it's curable.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 06 Jun 2011 08:46 PM PDT Bernanke is calling the shots but that has not stopped a few Fed Governors from speaking their minds. Please consider Fisher Says Central Bank Has 'Done Enough if Not Too Much' to Help Economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the central bank has "done enough if not too much" to stimulate the economy and "one has to question the efficacy" of doing more.Too Much One look at speculation in commodities, the stock market and junk bonds is all you need to see to understand the Fed has done too much already, yet it did not help the real economy one bit. As for 3% second half growth, I will take the under. Moreover, barring a drop in the participation rate, I expect the unemployment rate to rise. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Housing ATM Theory and Finland's Property Bubble Posted: 06 Jun 2011 03:39 PM PDT Ukri who lives in Finland writes .... We have very frothy housing prices here, especially in the capital area, and a world record of sorts in tying the loans into adjustable rate mortgages. Fixed rates are a peculiarity in Finland. Over 90% of all mortgages here are adjustable rates.Get Your Housing ATM Reverse-Mortgage Today Interestingly, the cartoon is supposed to depict a serious proposal from the quarterly housing market analysis of HYPO. The captions were in Finnish but I changed them courtesy of Ukri's translations. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Beyond the Point of No Return; Operation Twist to Infinity Posted: 06 Jun 2011 09:11 AM PDT Inquiring minds are reading a post from Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark. Please consider Steen's Chronicle: Consensus, buying time aren't acceptable There are three major themes this morning: the election in Portugal, Greece bail-out Part II, and confirmation of slowing US growth.Operation Twist to Infinity Steen cites a reference to "Operation Twist" in footnote 11 to Bernanke "famous" deflation speech from 2002: "Deflation: Making sure 'It' does not happen here" - the very same speech which was academic reasoning for QE and QE2. An episode apparently less favorable to the view that the Fed can manipulate Treasury yields was the so-called Operation Twist of the 1960s, during which an attempt was made to raise short-term yields and lower long-term yields simultaneously by selling at the short end and buying at the long end. Academic opinion on the effectiveness of Operation Twist is divided. In any case, this episode was rather small in scale, did not involve explicit announcement of target rates, and occurred when interest rates were not close to zero.Let's Twist Again Unlikely For Now QE2 did not stimulate employment or housing. However, it did stimulate risk taking in financial markets, and bubbles in commodities and junk bonds. In other words, QE2 was a total failure. Will that stop Bernanke? Of course not. However, "Let's Twist Again" is unlikely for now given that Bernanke will not want the short end of the curve to rise just yet. Nonetheless, I am in complete agreement with Steen on the critical point: "Bernanke thinks it's only a matter of size and objective to do what could not be achieved in the 1960s." Bazooka Theory Revisited Recall that Treasury Secretary Paulson's failed "Bazooka" policy was based on the construct that size matters. The EU's silly attempt of talking down problems in Greece was based on the same principle. "If you have a bazooka in your pocket and people know it, you probably won't have to use it." Paulson said at a July 15 Senate Banking Committee hearing in regards to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Bazoooka Theory vs. Actual Results I discussed the ECB's attempt at Bazooka policy on February 12, 2010 in EU Tries Paulson's Bazooka Ploy; Bazooka Theory vs. Historical Results. Did the EU's ploy of talking down problems and threatening action work? No, it failed. Did that stop Trichet? No, it didn't. Indeed the ECB, IMF, and EU tried a basket of ideas that all failed. Then Trichet went on to buy a boatload of Greek debt believing it would cap yields on Greek bonds. That did not work either. Now Trichet has upped the ante once again as noted in his Call for Creation of European "Nanny-State" and Fiscal "Nanny-Zone" Cure Cannot be Same as the Disease Keynesian and Monetarist clowns always think it's just a matter of size. When proven wrong they simply grab more power and try again. I discussed that idea just this morning in Fed Uncertainty Principle as Applied to ECB: Trichet's Power Grab The disgusting state of affairs is that bureaucratic fools in the EU, US and everywhere else, all believe the cure is the same as the disease if only done in big enough size. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Fed Uncertainty Principle as Applied to ECB: Trichet's Power Grab Posted: 06 Jun 2011 01:37 AM PDT My personal favorite post is the Fed Uncertainty Principle written April 03, 2008. I called for a huge power grab by the Fed well before it happened and well before the Lehman crisis and bank bailouts. Interestingly, the Fed Uncertainty Principle, especially corollary number 2, clearly applies to the ECB as well. Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.What brought the Uncertainty Principle to mind is a Google translation on FAZ.NET. "The progressive shift of power to Brussels" Please consider "The progressive shift of power to Brussels" In a "five-point memorandum of [Christian Democratic Union party] CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt, responds to the recent proposals of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet.The above translation is choppy. However, choppy translation or not, the point is crystal clear: Power increasingly concentrates in the hands of those who caused the crisis. In the US that it the Fed. In Europe, it applies to the ECB. Here is the original link in German: "Fortschreitende Machtverschiebung in Richtung Brüssel" Although it is perfectly obvious, I did not think of Trichet's role in terms of the Fed Uncertainty Principle until reading that translation. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet was one of the original architects of the Maastricht Treaty, and he has violated that treaty at will ever since. For further discussion, please see Trichet Calls for Creation of European "Nanny-State" and Fiscal "Nanny-Zone". German Finance Ministers Wants Haircuts As long as we are in the German to English translation mode, inquiring minds should consider Schäuble wants to take private creditors in the duty Federal Finance Minister Schäuble (CDU) said at the weekend, including the private creditor would have to contribute. In the euro zone, he finds it, but so far little backing.The original article in German is Schäuble will private Gläubiger in die Pflicht nehmen. The ECB certainly does not want to discuss haircuts. Moreover, US media has recently portrayed the German finance minister as giving in to that concept as well. Thus things are not as portrayed. Note that a duration change, voluntary or not, constitutes a default according to Moody's, Fitch, and the S&P rating agencies. Addendum: Reader EM offers a smoother translation of the FAZ article as follows: The CSU fundamentally opposes a further transfer of power in the EU in the direction of Brussels. A "five-point memorandum" from CSU General secretary Alexander Dobrindt, a copy of which has been obtained by the Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung, moreover argues for a taking back of authority from Brussels.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics |
Posted: 06 Jun 2011 01:29 PM PDT Myths include: one dog year equals about seven human years, goldfish have a three second memory, chameleons change their color to match their environment, and several others. More Infographics. Click to Enlarge. Source: misconceptionjunction |
Posted: 06 Jun 2011 01:05 PM PDT This is a project about how different can look a person in real life and his own passport photo. People change every minute and the only thing that stays still is their passport photo. All the same person but such different looks. Lovely side-by-side comparable photo project by Suren Manvelyan and Biayna Mahari. Passprot photoes on the left side (from valid passports) and present-day portraits on the right side: Source: behance |
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SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog |
Posted: 05 Jun 2011 01:49 PM PDT Posted by robmillard Hi there SEOmoz readers - I’m Rob and I work at Distilled as an SEO Consultant. Blogger outreach is a topic I’ve spoken about recently at SMX London and I wanted to share some of the tips with you here on the SEOmoz blog. It’s worth quickly covering off why I think SEOs should be building relationships through outreach - a responsive network of bloggers with whom you have an ongoing conversation can help make your promotion efforts much easier. Contacting bloggers cold and only when you want something is bound to be less successful than if you put the groundwork in first. Like Michael Gray tweeted recently: So here’s a collection of tips for better and more efficient outreach that have come out of some of the work I’ve been doing recently. 1. Flattery is easier on TwitterLink request emails typically contain some sort of compliment about the website’s design or content. The trouble is that it often comes across as forced, and sometimes there’s not even a great deal to be complimentary about. When a compliment is obviously a thinly veiled attempt to get in the website owner’s good books, it can have the opposite effect. Twitter is a much more natural place for this sort of activity - people are always bigging each other up. They RT, #FF, list people, post each other’s blog content, interact, ask questions, and share. It’s totally natural and can be much more subtle, so don’t forget to use all of these tools to get yourself noticed by your link targets. For example, a month of gentle, regular retweeting and interaction could be the perfect way to build up to a link request email. 2. Finding email addresses can be toughWebsite owners often go out of their way to hide their email addresses. They replace them with images, they use contact forms, and often use generic inboxes like contact@website.com. At the same time, website owners go out of their way to promote their social media accounts pretty much everywhere they can. They add themselves to directories, put badges all over their sites, link to their profiles at the end of blog posts and more. It’s pretty easy to work out how some website owners would prefer to be contacted, and finding social media profiles can often take a fraction of the time. If you know the person’s name then you can often find them with a search like site:twitter.com rob millard. If you don’t know their name, how about searching LinkedIn for their job title and company name? site:linkedin.com inurl:/in/ distilled SEO consultant - easy! You can also use tools like FollowerWonk, WeFollow, and Twitter’s internal search to find Twitter accounts that are relevant to your niche. Facebook’s internal search can help you do the same. If you’re familiar with Google Docs and importxml() it’s relatively simple to scrape directories like FollowerWonk and WeFollow, and pull in each user’s web address from their Twitter bio. Once you’ve done that, you could use the SEOmoz API to find out which influential Twitter users actually have blogs worth getting links from. 3. Use Twitter's search to find opportunitiesThere are a whole host of ways to find link building opportunities using Twitter search. Firstly, check out some of the hashtags used by journalists and bloggers such as #journorequest, #journalistrequest, and #HARO. Combine them which a keyword relevant to your niche and you often get some great opportunities. Speed is crucial though, so make sure you’re quick to respond. Advanced search queries for guest posting opportunities are fairly well documented, but you can use a similar approach with Twitter. Check out “guest post” + keyword or “guest blog” + keyword. These aren’t typically blogs asking for guest posts, but they’re promoting guest content which shows that they are likely to accept something similar by yours truly. If you find that searches and hashtags like the ones mentioned above are yielding opportunities, why not set them up as an extra pane in a Twitter client such as TweetDeck so that you can scan them regularly. 4. Tailor your Guest Posting ideasWhen contacting a blogger about guest posting opportunities, I’ve found that I have a much higher success rate if I include a few ideas for headlines straight off. You can make this technique even more effective if you do some quick research to find out what sort of content has worked well for them in the past. Who’s likely to turn down a free post on a subject that earned them loads of links last time round? So the Top Pages report in OSE is a great place to start – are there any recurring themes that you can pick up on? For example, as a technology blog smartphone content might be way more popular than anything else, so pitch some ideas in that area. Possibly a better approach would be to look at their site using PostRank as this includes other signals such as social media and number of comments. Or, again, you could build a tool in Google Docs similar to the one Tom Critchlow outlined here 5. Twitter Lists FTWMy favourite use for lists is to create a private list for users that I’ve identified as outreach targets. This way, you can set up a pane in TweetDeck to monitor what those users are up to and look for opportunities to retweet, interact etc. Obviously a private list is preferred because you’ll blow your chances if somebody realises they’re on a list called “Bloggers to get links from lol”. On the other hand, you could use public lists as a form of flattery. Create a list called “The world’s best travel bloggers” and then tweet about it. There’s no guarantee that they’ll see it, but you’d hope at least a few of the people on it would check it out. 6. Get an introductionThis is one of my favourite uses for LinkedIn. Typically I tend to avoid actually contacting people through LinkedIn as it can come across just as forced as a cold email. But if you know who you’re targeting, find their profile and check out this box on the right hand side: It could be that one of your colleagues already knows them, in which case you can leverage that existing relationship. Or it might be that another business contact knows them, in which case you could ask for an introduction which gives you an easy in. 7. Show your credibilityApart from the domain name, there’s very little in an email address that demonstrates the credibility of the user. This is another area in which social media’s strengths lie as outreach targets can easily check your profile and work out if you’re the sort of person they want to collaborate with. As a result, it’s really worth putting in the time to make sure your profile looks authentic and credible. Even the simple things like your profile picture can make a difference – use a photo of your actual face rather than a logo so that people can see who they’re talking to. You can also build credibility by participating in relevant conversations and communities so that you demonstrate that you’re genuinely interested in your niche. 8. Set up custom RSS feeds for key bloggersThis is really at the end of the outreach process, but I often find that I’m contacting bloggers that operate in a niche within my niche. For example, a food blogger might build a relationship with a cupcake blog. If they like to consume content using RSS, it would be much better to give them a feed of posts which are strictly relevant to cupcakes. Fortunately this is super-easy in Wordpress. Find the relevant tag page or category page such as: That’s all for now! Hopefully this post gives you some ideas that might freshen up your outreach strategies. If you’ve got any further ideas or questions, I’d love to hear them in the comments. |
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