Fast growth comes from overwhelming the smallest possible audience with a product or service that so delights that they insist that their friends and colleagues use it. And hypergrowth is a version of the same thing, except those friends and colleagues quickly become even bigger fans, and tell even more people.
Often, we get sidetracked when we forget about "smallest possible." If you make the audience you're initially serving too big, you will dilute the very thing you set out to make, avoid critical mass, and compromise the magic of what you're building. You'll make average stuff for average people instead of something powerful for the few.
By "smallest possible" I don't mean, "too small." I mean the smallest number that eventually leads to the kernel of conversation that enables you to grow.
Amazon is sponsoring a robot warehouse automation contest to see who can pack the most boxes in the least amount of time without dropping any packages or crushing anything delicate such as cookies.
In the contest, in which human workers are not eligible to apply, the robots will have to work without any remote guidance from their creators.
Packets of Oreos, boxes of crayons, and squeaky dog toys will test the limits of robot vision and manipulation in a competition this May. Amazon is organizing the event to spur the development of more nimble-fingered product-packing machines.
Participating robots will earn points by locating products sitting somewhere on a stack of shelves, retrieving them safely, and then packing them into cardboard shipping boxes. Robots that accidentally crush a cookie or drop a toy will have points deducted. The people whose robots earn the most points will win $25,000.
Amazon has already automated some of the work done in its vast fulfillment centers. Robots in a few locations send shelves laden with products over to human workers who then grab and package them. These mobile robots, made by Kiva Systems, a company that Amazon bought in 2012 for $678 million, reduce the distance human workers have to walk in order to find products. However, no robot can yet pick and pack products with the speed and reliability of a human. Industrial robots that are already widespread in several industries are limited to extremely precise, repetitive work in highly controlled environments.
Pete Wurman, chief technology officer of Kiva Systems, says that about 30 teams from academic departments around the world will take part in the challenge, which will be held at the International Conference on Robotics and Automation in Seattle. In each round, robots will be told to pick and pack one of 25 different items from a stack of shelves resembling those found in Amazon's warehouses. Some teams are developing their own robots, while others are adapting commercially available systems with their own grippers and software.
The challenge facing the robots in Amazon's contest will be considerable. Humans have a remarkable ability to identify objects, figure out how to manipulate them, and then grasp them with just the right amount of force. This is especially hard for machines to do if an object is unfamiliar, awkwardly shaped, or sitting on a dark shelf with a bunch of other items. In the Amazon contest, the robots will have to work without any remote guidance from their creators.
"We tried to pick out a variety of different products that were representative of our catalogue and that pose different kinds of grasping challenges," Wurman said. "Like plastic wrap; difficult-to-grab little dog toys; things you don't want to crush, like the Oreos."
While the Amazon challenge might seem simple, Saxena believes it could quickly make an impact in the real world. "If robots are able to handle even the light types of grasping tasks the contest proposes," he says, "we could actually start to see a lot of robots helping people with different tasks."
The preceding MIT review describes the 2015 ICRA Contest May 26-30 in Seattle.
Soft fingers and better motions are needed to win the 2015 contest, and they are coming (image from the University of Colorado video).
Anything that can be automated, will. The higher the minimum wage and the lower the interest rate, the more incentive companies have to replace humans with hardware and software robots.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
In separate events in Frankfurt and Detroit, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said U.S. monetary policy might need to be adjusted in light of the economy's steady improvement since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
"Now may be a good time to begin normalizing U.S. monetary policy so that it is set appropriately for an improving economy over the next two years," Bullard said at a conference in the German financial hub.
The challenge now, Lockhart said, is to sort out whether recent weakness in exports, manufacturing and capital investment indicate the start of an economic slowdown or other temporary factors such as the soaring value of the U.S. dollar.
Lockhart said he is confident for now that the weakness is "transitory," and still regards it as highly likely that the Fed will raise rates at either its June, July or September meetings.
"We're still on a solid track ... The economy is throwing off some mixed signals at the moment and I think that is going to be passing or transitory," Lockhart said in an interview with CNBC from a Detroit investment conference.
"In the beginning when the dollar declined I was prepared to, to some extent, dismiss the influence of the dollar as being not great because our economy is not so export-dependent, but I'm upgrading it as a factor to watch," he said.
Totally Clueless
In simple terms, Lockhart may as well have said that he is "totally clueless."
NBER records show that, over the period from the mid-1940s until 2007, the average recession lasted 10 months, while the average expansion lasted 57 months, giving us an average business cycle of 67 months or about 5 years and seven months. However, there has been considerable variation in the length of business cycle expansions and contractions in the past.
The shortest recession between the mid-1940s and 2007 lasted only six months, from January to July 1980. The two longest recessions during the period lasted 16 months each, one extending from November 1973 to March 1975, and the other from July 1981 to November 1982. In both of these periods there was a noticeable decline in real GDP.
In contrast to the relatively short duration of most recessions, periods of expansion tend to last much longer, helping the economy expand over time. The shortest expansion period from the mid-1940s until 2007 lasted only 24 months, from April 1958 to April 1960. The longest expansion continued from March 1991 to March 2001, setting a record of 120 consecutive months of growth.
Recession Overdue
Statistically speaking, a recession is overdue although there is wide variance in both the length of recessions and recoveries.
Yet, there is very little reason to believe weak report after weak report is "transitory". The idea "we're still on a solid track," is downright ludicrous.
Good Time to Normalize Rates?
Is this a good time to normalize rates?
Let's answer it this way: It's better than a month from now but not as good as two years ago. In fact, for the second time, rates never should have gotten as low as they did for as long as they did.
The Fed has sponsored three asset bubbles in recent history, each of increasing amplitude.
Three Major Bubbles
Dot-Com bubble
Housing and credit bubble
Global equity and junk bond bubble
Bubble number three is still expanding. Few admit that it's a bubble, simply because it hasn't popped yet.
If the Fed does hike (which is doubtful because Yellen is calling the shots, not Bullard or Lockhart), most will point a finger and say the "Fed caused a needless recession".
Nothing could be further from the truth.
By blowing yet another asset bubble, the Fed guaranteed another hugely destructive asset deflation bust.
Why hike? The reason to hike is the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust, something the Fed should have thought about in advance but didn't, and never does.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Many market watchers have their eye on jobs and the unemployment rate as the determinant of when the Fed will hike.
Let's investigate the wisdom of that approach with actual data.
I downloaded seasonally adjusted employment and jobs data for the last five recessions from the BLS. Because the recessions start in different months, use of seasonally adjusted data is mandatory for this exercise.
My focus is on jobs and employment in the period three months prior to the recession to three months after the recession.
Jobs are from the Establishment Survey. Employment is from the Household Survey. Results are similar.
Recessions vs. Employment (in Thousands)
Recession Date
Employ -3 Months
Employ -2 Months
Employ -1 Months
Employ -0 Months
Employ +1 Months
Employ +2 Months
Employ +3 Months
Peak Employment
1980-01
99,404
99,574
99,933
99,879
99,995
99,713
99,233
1 Month Later
1981-07
101,056
101,048
100,298
100,693
100,689
100,064
100,378
1 Month Later
1990-07
118,852
119,151
118,983
118,810
118,802
118,524
118,536
1 Month Prior
2001-03
137,614
137,778
137,612
137,783
137,299
137,092
136,873
Recession Start
2007-12
146,244
145,946
146,595
146,273
146,378
146,156
146,086
1 Month Prior
Recessions vs. Jobs (in Thousands)
Recession Date
Jobs -3 Months
Jobs -2 Months
Jobs -1 Months
Jobs -0 Months
Jobs +1 Months
Jobs +2 Months
Jobs +3 Months
Peak Jobs
1980-01
90,482
90,576
90,673
90,802
90,882
90,994
90,850
2 Months Later
1981-07
91,283
91,293
91,490
91,602
91,566
91,479
91,380
Recession Start
1990-07
109,687
109,839
109,862
109,834
109,613
109,525
109,366
1 Month Prior
2001-03
132,723
132,696
132,767
132,742
132,460
132,422
132,291
1 Month Prior
2007-12
138,053
138,136
138,253
138,350
138,365
138,278
138,199
1 Month Later
How Much Warning Can One Expect?
The answer is clearly none.
In the previous five recessions, jobs peaked two months after the start of the recession once, one month later once, one month prior twice, and once during the recession month.
In the previous five recessions, employment peaked one month after the start of the recession twice, one month prior twice, and once during the recession month.
The NBER says the last US recession started in December of 2007 and lasted until June of 2009. Let's take a closer look at stats from that recession.
2007-2009 Recession Stats
Jobs were higher three months after the recession started than two months before the recession started.
Jobs were higher two months after the recession started than one month before.
Employment was higher three months after the recession started than two months before.
Employment was higher two months after the recession started than one month before.
In the last recession, jobs and employment did not provide a clear signal for months.
Negative Data Pours In
With the exceptions of jobs, most other data has been negative.
Retail Sales Declined Third Month: On March 12, the Commerce Department announced retail sales were down for the third consecutive month. Economists blamed the weather. I knocked that assessment in Weather Unexpectedly Much Worse Than Economists Previously Thought.
Wholesale Trade: On March 10, the Commerce Department reported sales were down while inventories rose. I used that report to say "I Stick With My Recession Call".
Economists keep watching jobs, a lagging indicator, somehow convinced that jobs tell the story of what the Fed is about to do. Such a focus is complete silliness. When it's clear that jobs have turned, the economy will likely be in recession.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Gary Bentley reunited with a nurse that changed his life at Vulcan Park Sunday afternoon. When he was a kid he had open heart surgery and he always remembered Nurse Kathy for being so nice to him during his hospital stay. He spent a lot of time trying to track her down and 40 years later he found a way to express his gratitude.
Everyone has stayed in a hotel at some point in their lives but there's a lot of stuff that goes on behind the scenes that you don't know about. Today you're going to learn all the dirty little secrets that the hotels don't want you to know. This will change how you look at hotels forever.
A father and son team from China have been using scrap metal to build sculptures of Transformers and they've been very successful. They're currently making over $160,000 a year from these replicas this team is going viral thanks to their impeccable creations.