vineri, 19 septembrie 2014

Seth's Blog : What are you seeking at work?

 

What are you seeking at work?

Some people want safety and respect. They want to know what the work rules are, they want a guarantee that the effort required is both predictable and rewarded. They seek an environment where they won't feel pushed around, surprised or taken advantage of.

Other people want challenge and autonomy. They want the opportunity to grow and to delight or inspire the people around them. They seek both organizational and personal challenges, and they like to solve interesting problems.

Without a doubt, there's an overlap here, but if you find that your approach to the people around you isn't resonating, it might because you're giving your people precisely what they don't want.

       

 

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joi, 18 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Lesson of the Day: The Political Class Always Wins

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 09:45 PM PDT

With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.
With 26 of Scotland's 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the main U.K. parties had garnered 54 percent of the vote, while the "yes" campaign led by Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond had 46 percent.

"It does look like we have secured a 'no' vote," Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, a Liberal Democrat and the most senior Scot in the U.K. government, told Sky News as the first results trickled in. "But a 'no' vote is also for change, it's our responsibility to get on with that."
Looking Ahead

Via email, Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank writes ...
We have Quebec like situation in Scotland now – The independence talk is gone for now but the next item on the agenda politically is UK referendum next year where the independence and anti-EU vote will continue to play a role. 2017 is the big year, if the promised EU votes takes place……

EU did not do themselves any favors by ruling Scotland out of EU even before the election results was known. Scots, like danes, don't take outside pressure easy especially from something like the EU.

The main take away from macro perspective is the move towards very nationalistic and domestic driven political agendas. The EU and global agendas now plays 3rd violin as lack of growth and reforms become real issue.

The real economy is at least politically catching up to the artificial markets, so while the markets celebrate RISK ON again this morning, the politicians around Europe is taking notes: Change or lose your job! Just ask the Labor party in the UK who almost lost their ability to get back into government as 30 MP's would have been lost overnight with a Yes.

Steen Jakobsen
Lesson Learned

For the political class, this vote was far too close for comfort. Next time, there won't be a vote.

In the case of Spain, a Catalan vote for independence scheduled later this year will simply be declared illegal. Should the vote for independence fail, the vote would of course be accepted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB's Targeted Lending Spree Starts Out As Flop; Modern Monetary Insanity

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 11:17 AM PDT

Following on the "success" of the ECB's LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operation) which did nothing to spur lending and everything to create the biggest sovereign bond bubble the world has ever seen,  ECB president Mario Draghi announced a TLTRO or Targeted LTRO on September 4.

The ECB's intent is to spur lending.

Lending Spree Short of Expectations

Today the Financial Times reports ECB's Lending Spree Short of Expectations.
The European Central Bank's first offer of cheap four-year loans has fallen short of expectations, dealing a blow to president Mario Draghi's hope of sustaining the eurozone's ailing economy by expanding the central bank's balance sheet.

Banks borrowed €82.6bn through the first of the ECB's Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs, one of policy makers' big ideas to revive the currency area's recovery. A poll by Bloomberg earlier this week showed economists, on average, expected banks to bid for €174bn of loans from a maximum of €400bn.

Analysts said the disappointing take-up would pile pressure on the ECB to embark on large-scale government bond buying, or quantitative easing, before the end of this year. With inflation as low as 0.4 per cent in the year to August, the central bank is struggling to hit its inflation target of just below 2 per cent.

The TLTROs allow banks to borrow at a rate just above the ECB's main refinancing rate of 0.05 per cent until late 2018 so long as they meet targets for lending to businesses. If they miss the targets, they must pay the funds back in 2016.

The ECB will conduct another seven auctions, with the next TLTRO taking place in December. The central bank hopes the auctions, through which it will lend a maximum of €1tn over the next three years, will boost inflation and restart the region's flagging economic recovery by spurring lending to smaller businesses.
Why TLTRO Won't Spur Lending

Banks may eventually take the money. Why not? The only penalty is they have to pay it back in 2016 if they don't lend it. But taking money, and lending (more than one would have anyway), are two different things. For now, banks did not even take a big bite at the money.

For an explanations as to why TLTRO will not spur lending, please see ECB Pulls Out Bazooka, Cuts Rates, Buys Assets; Will this Stimulate Lending?

Modern Monetary Insanity

Central banks ought to be worried about asset bubbles and asset deflation, not price deflation on ordinary consumer goods. Nonetheless, central banks target prices even though they cannot push price inflation where they want it! 

Asset deflation (more precisely loans that cannot be paid back as asset prices fall)  not price deflation is what will cripple banks. Yet by targeting consumer prices with monetary inflation, they bring upon asset inflation then asset deflation which is precisely what they should seek to avoid.

From this perspective, the ECB is hell-bent on making the problem worse. It's modern monetary insanity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Learn to Read Russian in 15 Minutes! [Infographic]

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 12:45 PM PDT

Here's a really interesting and surprisingly simple breakdown of the Russian alphabet from writer Peter Starr Northrop and cartoonist Ryan Estrada. Give it a few minutes of your time and you'll be confidently sounding out Russian words by the end.

Click on Image to Enlarge.



You Just Can't Fix Stupid

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 10:25 AM PDT

Stop these people before they hurt themselves. They're too dumb to live.























This Bear Does What It Wants

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 10:05 AM PDT

Being a bear in Daytona Beach, Florida can get pretty tiring. Sometimes you need to take a break and there's no better place to do it than a hammock in some stranger's backyard.















President Obama Speaks About Our Plan on ISIL

 
Here's what's going on at the White House today.
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

President Obama Speaks About Our Plan on ISIL

At MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida yesterday, President Obama spoke to servicemen and women about the U.S. strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group ISIL.

"In a world where technology provides a small group of killers with the ability to do terrible harm, it is America that has the capacity and the will to mobilize the world against terrorists," the President said.

See the President's five key points about our strategy to defeat ISIL:

Learn more about the President's statement.


 
 
  Top Stories

Spelling Bee Champions Visit the White House

This week, President Obama welcomed 2014 Scripps National Spelling Bee co-champions Sriram Hathwar and Ansun Sujoe to the Oval Office. The two went through a series of regional competitions and preliminary rounds before making it to the nationally televised championship, becoming the first co-champions of the "Bee" in over 50 years.

READ MORE

A Major Increase in Our Response to the Ebola Outbreak

On Monday, during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, President Obama spoke on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, and announced a major increase in our efforts to help the international community fight the outbreak.

READ MORE

What Is Constitution Day?

Yesterday was Constitution Day, marking the day in 1787 when the U.S. Constitutional Convention signed and adopted the Constitution at Philadelphia's Independence Hall. What exactly does that mean? We've got the facts for you here.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

8:00 AM: The Vice President hosts a working breakfast with U.S. Senators

10:00 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:45 AM: The President participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony

12:00 PM: The Vice President hosts a working lunch with President Poroshenko

2:00 PM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine; the Vice President also attends

3:55 PM: The President attends a DNC roundtable


 

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Five things you need to know about ISIL:

Here are the five things you need to know about the group ISIL.
 

The White House

 

Five things you need to know about ISIL

Watch: President Obama speak at CENTCOM

President Obama spoke to service men and women at MacDill Air Force Base yesterday about the U.S. strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL -- a terrorist organization that is killing innocent, unarmed civilians in both Iraq and Syria. ISIL, also known as ISIS or the Islamic State, is also responsible for the brutal murders of American journalists Jim Foley and Steven Sotloff.

Here are the key points the President made yesterday regarding ISIL and our strategy to defeat their forces:

1. ISIL is threatening America and our allies.

Our intelligence community has not yet detected specific plots from ISIL against our homeland, but they have repeatedly threatened our core interests, including our personnel, our embassies, our consulates, and our facilities in Iraq, Syria, and in the broader Middle East. "If left unchecked, they could pose a growing threat to the United States," he said.

2. The U.S. continues to conduct targeted airstrikes against ISIL.

The U.S. Air Force has conducted more than 160 airstrikes against ISIL, successfully protecting our personnel and facilities, killing ISIL fighters, and giving space for Iraqi and Kurdish forces to reclaim key territory. "They've helped our partners on the ground break ISIL sieges; helped rescue civilians cornered on a mountain; helped save the lives of thousands of innocent men, women and children," the President said.

3. American forces that have been deployed to Iraq do not and will not have a combat mission.

"As your Commander-in-Chief, I will not commit you, and the rest of our Armed Forces, to fighting another ground war in Iraq," the President told servicemembers. Along with our airstrikes, U.S. forces will train, equip, advise, and assist local partners on the ground "so that they can secure their own countries' futures."

4. This is not and will not be America's fight alone.

The U.S. will lead a broad coalition of countries who have a stake in this fight. France and the UK are already flying with us over Iraq, and other countries have committed to join this effort. Saudi Arabia has agreed to host American efforts to train and equip Syrian opposition forces. Australia and Canada are going to send military advisors to Iraq, while Germany is sending paratroopers to help offer training. Arab nations have agreed to strengthen their support for Iraq's new government, a key ally in our strategy to defeat ISIL.

International partners will help us cut off ISIL funding, gather intelligence, and prevent foreign fighters from entering -- or leaving -- the Middle East. And nearly 30 nations have joined American humanitarian relief to help civilians, including Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yezidi, or other religious minorities, that ISIL has driven from their homes.

5. Congress should provide the authorities and resources the U.S. military needs to succeed.

The President has called on Congress to support our military with the necessary resources to train and equip Syrian opposition fighters. As he has said, America's leadership position is strongest when the President and Congress work together and show a united front.

"Sending our servicemembers into harm's way is not a decision I ever take lightly," the President said. "It is the hardest decision I make as President. Nothing else comes close."

But this strategy will require the best military force in the world:

Frankly, there just aren't a lot of other folks who can perform in the same ways -- in fact, there are none. And there are some things only we can do. There are some capabilities only we have. That's because of you -- your dedication, your skill, your work, your families supporting you, your training, your command structure. Our Armed Forces are unparalleled and unique. And so when we've got a big problem somewhere around the world, it falls on our shoulders. And sometimes that's tough. But that's what sets us apart. That's why we're America. That's what the stars and stripes are all about.

"In an uncertain world full of breathtaking change, the one constant is American leadership."

And, because of the strength and dedication of America's military, the President made clear that we will send an unmistakable message to ISIL:

Whether in Iraq or in Syria, these terrorists will learn the same thing that the leaders of al Qaeda already know: We mean what we say; our reach is long; if you threaten America, you will find no safe haven. We will find you eventually.