luni, 20 aprilie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Meet Rosie Mac The Body Double For Daenerys On Game Of Thrones

Posted: 20 Apr 2015 03:13 PM PDT

Emilia Clarke is famous for playing Daenerys on "Game of Thrones" but she couldn't have done it in season 5 without a little help from model Rosie Mac. Rosie played Emilia's stunt double but she also happens to have a lot of fans herself and it's not hard to see why.




















Childhood Pictures Of Famous Celebrities From Back In The Day

Posted: 20 Apr 2015 02:49 PM PDT

These world famous celebrities look very different today but these pictures are just proof that big things come from humble beginnings.

Marilyn Monroe, 19. [1945]



Cher, 13. [1959]



Teddy Roosevelt, 18. [1876]



Barack Obama, 4, riding a tricycle. [1965]



Bryan Cranston, 14, with his dog Lady. [1970]



Fidel Castro, 17, playing basketball at High School. [1943]



Muhammad Ali, then Cassius Clay, 12. [1954]



George Clooney, 7, would grow up to look exactly like his dad. [1968]



The Notorious B.I.G., 6. [1978]



John Wayne, 19. [1926]



Tiger Woods, 14, playing Zelda. [1989]



Frank Sinatra, 10, looking as suave as you would expect. [1925]



Paul McCartney, 8, with his father on a day trip. [1950]



Stevie Wonder, 13, messing around with Muhammad Ali, 21. [1963]



Robin Williams, 18, as a senior at Redwood High School. [1969]



Audrey Hepburn, 13. [1942]



Paul Newman, 18, having his mugshot taken while joining the Navy. [1943]



Andre the Giant, 19, during a Paris Fashion Show. [1966]



Ben Stiller, 13, on a trip to New York with his father Jerry. [1978]



Andy Warhol, 8. [1936]



Tommy Lee Jones, 19. [1965]



Winston Churchill, 14, in his school uniform. [1889]



Dwayne Johnson, 15. [1987]



Kurt Cobain, 19. [1986]



Robert De Niro, 7. [1950]



Stephen Hawking, 12. [1954]



Bill Clinton, 12, with his saxophone. [1958]



John Lennon, 17, with his then-girlfriend and future wife Cynthia. [1957]

Nonsmoking Room vs Smoking Room

Posted: 20 Apr 2015 10:58 AM PDT

Smoking room at Washington Dulles International Airport in Virginia. See the stark contrast between the ceilings in the nonsmoking room and smoking room.























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Google Told Me I'm Pregnant: From Strings to Diagnosis - Moz Blog


Google Told Me I'm Pregnant: From Strings to Diagnosis

Posted on: Monday 20 April 2015 — 02:15

Posted by CraigBradford

pregnancy diagnosis google

In the near future, I think Google Now could tell you are pregnant or diagnose you with a medical condition before your doctor ever could. Humans are great at recognising patterns but only if we know we are creating them or where to look. Remember the Target story of how they knew a young girl was pregnant before she or her father did? Increases in technology like smart watches and the trend of "the quantified self" mean messages like being told you are pregnant aren't impossible in the near future. So how do we go from weather reports and traffic updates to a medical diagnosis?

Strings-to-things, things-to-actions

When Google, Yahoo and Bing announced Schema.org in 2011, search engines were still in the strings-to-things phase. In my opinion, Google, in particular, are already moving on from that goal. The most recent addition to the Schema.org vocabulary is actions. See, the Schema site for more details or my SMX Munich deck for more details. 

In my presentation, I made the point that the future of structured data isn't about understanding what a thing is, it's about understanding what a thing can do. If search engines can understand what your website, app or other interfaces can do, and they can understand user intent, they can match queries to the best place to do that action. How does Google know what we want to do?

Actions-to-anticipation

Many people have said that Google wants to become the ultimate personal assistant. Things like Google Now and conversational search reinforce this standpoint. However, a prerequisite for that position is the concept of time. For a computerised personal assistant to be truly as useful as the real thing, they need to be aware of the past, the present and more importantly the future. 

Historically, Google and other search engines have dealt with things from the past. Webpages by their nature are in the past, or at best, live. This makes the anticipation and initiative that you would expect from great personal assistant difficult for Google. They have very little data to predict what you might want to do or are going to do in the future. Gmail and Google calendar are the two most obvious ones that come to mind (if you use them). 

Forgetting privacy or intellectual property for a second, imagine Google had access to every app on your phone and the data within it. What might they be able to know about you?

app array for phone

Just the apps above could give Google access to:

  • What music I've listened to in the past
  • What movies I've watched
  • What I've been eating and drinking recently
  • How much exercise I do
  • What articles I might read in the near future
  • Flights I have booked
  • Houses I might want to buy

Google Now - An IFTTT for your life

While I was in Munich, I saw an announcement that Google had opened the Google Now API to a selection of hand-picked, third-party apps.

This got me thinking. I do not know what the relationship will be or what data Google would have access to but one of the apps that have been accepted to work with Google Now is Lyft. The example Google gave in the article was a generic prompt to order a cab. For example, you arrive at an airport and Google Now might push you a notification to get a cab:

reactive push notification

Some more examples

personalized recommendations from apps

See more examples here.

While the Lyft example above is interesting, it made me realise that allowing apps to talk to each other via Google Now would essentially turn your smartphone into an IFTTT for your life. So rather than a generic Lyft alert, what if they combined a few apps? They could use my British Airways app to see I have an upcoming flight, Google maps to know when I've arrived in Munich, and my Gmail account to see where I am staying. There are probably specific hotel apps they could use too. Using this, rather than getting a generic get a car card, I get one that's already personalised the quote to where I'm going.

ifttt for your life with apps

Anticipation to diagnosis

The ultimate personal assistant would not only tell us what we expect, they would tell us things we never thought to consider. This would only be made possible by advanced pattern recognition, anticipation, and initiative beyond the possibility of a human. 

What patterns do you already create but don't currently correlate? If you feel sluggish or tired on a Thursday, we do not necessarily correlate that to something that you may be allergic to that you ate on Monday. Many people spend years with conditions such as gluten or lactose intolerance but never make the connection between what they eat and how they feel. Humans cannot easily track and analyse lots of data like that, computers can. 

So how can Google tell you are pregnant? I am not a doctor but I suspect like the Target example, there may be early signs of pregnancy that we do not think about at the moment (biological or otherwise). For a start, there could be a process of first increasing the priority that a particular pattern receives. For example, there may be lots of small things that people change before trying to get pregnant. If you're using a lot of different apps combined with hardware like heart rate monitors and blood pressure monitors, it wouldn't be too difficult for Google to take an educated guess. Just using the information in the Target article we know people do things like:

  • Change their diet - This would be easy to see through apps like MyFitnessPal
  • Change their buying habits - Amazon app or other store apps
  • They may do more exercise - Several places they could get this

After all of the above, let's not forget Google knows everything you've searched for online and your browsing history if you use Chrome. I do not think it would take much to guess someone is thinking about having a family based on his or her search history alone. 

Let's assume that based on the above, Google lowers the "pregnancy card" trigger threshold. This means they look closer at changes that might suggest your pregnant. I am not a doctor, so bear with me while I think out loud. Other than urine or blood samples, what other quantitative data is there that you might be pregnant? 

For context, I recently learned that eating something that you have an intolerance to can show an elevated heart rate for two hours after eating. One test to check for allergies is to track your heart rate throughout the day. This was where this idea came from in the first place. Using a smartwatch with a heart rate monitor, plus My Fitness Pal, Google could make suggestions that you are allergic to foods you never thought of due to recognising patterns in elevated heart rate after your meals. This made me wonder what else could be possible. There's a ton of tech for tracking:

Could Google make a guess from this data alone? I cannot stress enough about my lack of medical qualifications, but I wonder if pregnancy impacts things like REM and deep sleep changes, significant blood pressure or heart rate changes at certain times of the day. Who knows, and maybe one of these things alone wouldn't be enough to know for sure, but combined, I think it will not be long before pregnancy prediction or similar could be done.

Enough about pregnancy, (Google probably thinks I am looking to start a family) what else? What things using heart rate alone could Google diagnose or push to us in Google Now? Could they push notifications to people who are diabetic to remember to take insulin? Could they diagnose diabetes? Could they flag heart problems before it is too late? I have no idea, but I'm excited to see where things go in the next few years.


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Seth's Blog : The difference between mass and banality

The difference between mass and banality

Something doesn't have to be trite and dreadful to be popular, but often, popular things get this way.

In the 1980s, most of the cars made by General Motors were mediocre, unmemorable and poorly designed. They were also quite popular. By racing to the bottom, GM defended market share but ended up crippling themselves for generations.

Hot Wheels, Spaldinis and the original Monopoly game are classic toys, Platonic ideals of good design and idiosyncratic thought. On the other hand, the hyped toys of the moment fade away fast, because they're designed to shortcut straight to the lowest common denominator of the moment, not to earn their way up the ladder of mass.

Just because bad design and popularity sometimes go hand in hand doesn't mean they're inextricably linked.

The culture of compromise is often accepted as the price of mass. But in fact, this is the crowded road to popular acceptance, and it works far less often than the compromisers believe it will.

       

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duminică, 19 aprilie 2015

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown

Link to White.net » Blog

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 12:32 AM PDT

Bing announced the roll-out of Universal Device Targeting (UDT) on Tuesday, along with details of the latest updates to the Bing Ads platform.

I had the pleasure the pleasure of attending the Bing Ads latest ad formats and device targeting capabilities webinar chaired by Katrina Morris (Bing Ads Program Manager) and Joseph Bergin (Bing Ads Technical Support).

Katrina works as a Release and Supportability Program Manager, helping to enable pilots and releases in the EMEA markets. Her main focus is to ensure the Bing Ads releases meet your needs and requirements, and that you have the features you need to succeed in search.

Joseph works as a Technical Support Engineer (TSE) on the Bing Ads Support Team based in Dublin. His main focus is campaign and ad delivery covering Bing Ads Editor, API, campaign creation and management, and answering questions like “Where is my ad?" or "How can I get more clicks?". If you have had such questions you may already have “met” him or his colleagues on-line. Joseph likes nothing better than setting up a call with a customer and helping them out in real time.

The webinar kicked off with the confirmation that Bing consolidated desktop, tablet and mobile targeting into one interface at the end of March, UDT. Were were advised of the three main reasons for this move:

    1. Simplicity: less complicated user interface
    2. Reduced friction: structural similarity across SEM platforms make it easier to manage across campaigns. Easier to copy over from AdWords accounts
    3. Controls: introduced table and mobile bid adjustments

The changes brought in are designed to help with copying campaigns over from Google AdWords, to ensure that similarity in terms of platform usability and features remains whilst boasting some additional features not yet available in Google AdWords:

bingVSadwords

Why not -100 percent bid adjustments for tablet traffic? – Bing Ads and industry sources report tablet conversions to be consistently within 15-20 percent of desktop/laptop ("traditional") conversions.* Given that PC and tablet campaigns perform very similarly, allowing for bid adjustments to span from -20 percent to +300 percent should give advertisers the controls they need to maintain their campaign return on investment (ROI).

In short, Bing Ads have moved to make the campaign structure parallel that of Google AdWords, reducing account management overheads. Bing were quick to inform that they have not and do not want to be seen as merely copying Google, they have also enabled bid modifiers for tablet which is currently unavailable in Google AdWords.

To be able to apply modifiers to tablet and mobile independently is fantastic; much of the client data we analysed post-call showed clear splits between these mobile devices in terms of conversions. Another great addition to the Bing Ads platform is the option to include {if mobile} URLs and the option for mobile preference (detailed further down this post).

 

So, taking UDT into account, what are the three things we should now be actioning off of the back-end of this update?

Top of the class

Boost the winners, dump the losers. If you previously utilised separate mobile and desktop campaigns you may need to look to update the keywords used as they may now be duplicated post UDT update. These need to be removed. Clearly you will need to keep those that have the highest CTR/CR.

  • Review your account and identify any campaigns targeting the same keywords
  • Move duplicates to higher-performing campaigns and delete or pause the lower performers
  • Consider creating "top performer" campaigns for more aggressive bidding/bid adjustments

“The most critical action that you can take: Review and combine campaigns targeting the same keyword” – Bing

The image below shows an example of how you may look to consolidate campaigns 1 and 2 with the keyword for 'Lilies' into a single campaign.

With the PC/tablet keyword having a quality score of 9, you would keep this keyword and add a bid modifier of -25% bid modify for mobile as the bid was 25% less than that on desktop and tablet.

Bid wisely

Bing advised that they generally see that mobile bids are around 30% cheaper than desktop, so if you are not targeting mobile, review your strategy. Note here though that this will vary by vertical, but in general mobile now seems to be an opportunity worth exploring. Experiment with the modifiers!

If you have legacy campaigns that are not opted in for mobile, think again. If your site is mobile friendly then not bidding for mobile may in-fact be harming your overall goal.

Test different combinations of bids and bid adjustments to find your key mobile ROI.

Think about your overall budget, with additional mobile traffic you will need additional budget to take into account the increased traffic volume. Note that any changes to your desktop bid in the example above will make changes to the mobile and tablet bids due to the bid modifiers in-place, so you may then need to adjust the modifiers accordingly.

Modifiers can be set up at campaign and ad group level; note though that any modifiers set-up at adg roup level will override those set up at campaign level.

Mobilize

Tell potential customers that you are 'mobile-first'.

  • Use keywords and ad text like 'mobile' and 'smartphone' where possible. "Order now from your mobile" for example
  • If you have a mobile-specific URL, be sure to use it… "m.example.com"
  • Utilise mobile-friendly ad extensions such as location, call and app

"Conversion rates for smartphone shoppers on mobile-optimised sites is 160% higher than on non-optimised sites" – Bing

If an ad group has both mobile-preferred and regular ads, only mobile-preferred ads serve on mobile devices, and only regular ads serve on PCs and tablets. Don't forget to set up mobile-only ads, this will ensure that you can deliver your desired message to searchers rather than potentially losing that message when not all ad text is displayed on a mobile device from a non-mobile preferred ad.

Make sure as well that you have both mobile preferred and non-mobile preferred extensions set up correctly to ensure they are displayed on the correct device type. Note: mobile preference cannot be set at the adgroup level. If all sitelinks in an ad group are set to 'mobile preferred' some may be displayed on tablet/PC if there are no other sitelinks available to use.

mobilepreferred

As mentioned above, if you have a mobile site (m.xxxxxxxx) ensure that you utilise the {if mobile} destination URL query string so that you direct mobile users to your mobile optimised site. For example {ifmobile:m.thisis-anexample.com}.

What is up-and-coming with Bing Ads?

 Recent Updates (Within past 3 months)

  • Unified device targeting (UDT)
  • Bing Ads Editor 10.7 – new improvements to allow edits of synced keywords, improved download logic and improved radius target management
  • Annotation launches – 3rd party data is added, including Twitter icon to your ads across Europe along with other annotations including Top Ads which is already deployed in Germany
  • Bing ads home tabs – allowing you to gain a quick snapshots and trends in account performance

 Mid term Updates (3-6 months)

  • App extensions – Allow for driving app downloads through an extension format and also includes dynamic OS detection to ensure corrects aps are displayed for each OS type
  • Search Remarketing (Pilot) – Bing are currently piloting first stage of their re-targeting product which includes audience bid boosting
  • Image Ads – New rich ad format. New extension format that will allow for up-to 3 hi-res images to be applied to your top ads to provide greater real-estate on your mainline ads
  • Campaign planner – Will allow for vertical trends and competitor trends analyses for key metrics

 Longer term (6+ months)

  • Microsoft Login Change – Migration completed for Bing Ads login to the Microsoft Account ID which will become mandatory later this year we are told with an aim to improve account security
  • New ad extensions – Form Extension with calendar input, allow users to input formats such as date, email or postcode and link directly with booking/reservations engine. Call-out extensions to showcase business USPs
  • Schedule extensions – Allow for more precise control over ad investments with start/end dates/times

So, taking all the above in, what’s recommended to act on now?

  • Upgrade to enhanced sitelinks to allow for richer extension content, particularly for brand campaigns to gain great real-estate on the SERPs
  • Review your device targeting; if you are targeting mobile separately at the moment, look at structure and combine your campaigns
  • Ensure that mobile sitelinks are set-up and ads are selected for mobile preference
  • Once combined, look to ad in mobile/tablet bid modifiers
  • Get ready for search re-marketing (RLSA as we know from Google AdWords), deploy UET (universal Event Tracking) directly into your site or via your chosen tag manager partner (The full features of UET will not be usable, but in it will be good to analyse in the short term in light of the greater benefit when search re-marketing rolls out later this year)
  • And finally, check out the new richer insights and auction insights, bid landscape, opportunities tab, and top mover reports to help you capitalise and make well informed decisions for your investment with Bing ads

There looks to be a lot of new features on the way and it seems Bing Ads may one day indeed be a serious contender to Google dominance in the marketplace. Watch this space…

I’d love to hear your thoughts & experience so far on UDT and UET, so feel free to get in touch through the comments below or on Twitter.

The post Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : Seen, heard, gotten, changed

Seen, heard, gotten, changed

Most of the news/advice/insight you run into is merely seen. You might acknowledge that something is happening, that something might work, that a new technique is surfacing.

Sometimes, if you work at it, you actually hear what's being said. You engage with the idea and actively roll it around, considering it from a few angles.

But rarely, too rarely, we actually get what's going on, we understand it well enough to embrace it (or reject it). Well enough to teach it. And maybe that leads to a productive change.

It's not clear to me that more stuff seen leads to more ideas gotten and more action taken. We probably don't need more inputs and noise. We certainly need to do a better job of focusing and even more important, doing the frightening work of acting as if and see if we get it.

It starts with more doing, not more seeing.

       

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sâmbătă, 18 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Humanoid Robot Wows Crowd, Reacts to Facial Expressions, Can Engage in Conversation and Make Eye Contact

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 07:06 PM PDT

"Ham" the humanoid robot drew crowds at a Hong Kong electronics event this week. Designed by US firm Hanson Robotics, Ham can recognize and respond to human facial expressions in natural way.

Please consider Aye, robot?
With his lively eyebrows, winkled cheeks and eyes that follow you around the room - this state-of-the-art robotic head is menacingly lifelike.

The head, designed by American robotics designer David Hanson, is able to answer basic questions and can also be used in the simulation of medical scenarios



Ham is currently on exhibit at the Global Sources spring electronics show at AsiaWorld Expo - the largest event of its kind in the world, with more than 4,000 booths displaying the latest gadgets.

The head is created with malleable material called Frubber using soft-bodied mechanical engineering and nanotechnology.

It contains realistic pores that measure just 4 to 40 nanometers across (there are 10million nanometers in one centimetre).

Using specialised software the machine can recognise and respond to a number of human facial expressions in a natural way.



According to Hanson Robotics's website, the humanoids can actually see your face, make eye contact with you, and understand speech to 'engage you in witty dialogue'.

Such reactions are a major feat of engineering, according to chief designer David Hanson, the founder and and president of Hanson Robotics.
Questions on Ham

Do you find this amazing, creepy, amazingly creepy, fascinating, or something else?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Productivity, Robots, China, Growth

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 11:36 AM PDT

Congratulations. You are more productive than ever. Just don't expect to be paid more for it. In reality, some machine is doing all that for you.



Japan Times reports Robots Leave Behind Chinese Factory Workers
According to the International Federation of Robotics, an association of academic and business robotics organizations, China bought approximately 56,000 of the 227,000 industrial robots purchased worldwide in 2014 — a 54 percent increase on 2013. And in all likelihood, China is just getting started. Late last month, the government of Guangdong Province, the heart of China's manufacturing behemoth, announced a three-year program to subsidize the purchase of robots at nearly 2,000 of the province's — and thus, the world's — largest manufacturers. Guangzhou, the provincial capital, aims to have 80 percent of its factories automated by 2020.

The government's involvement in this process shouldn't come as a surprise. The Chinese government (nationally, and in Guangdong) has long wanted to shift the country's manufacturing away from low-quality products that are manually assembled and toward higher-value ones — like automobiles, household appliances and higher-end consumer electronics — that require the precision of automation.

And it's no secret that demographics aren't on the side of China's traditional, labor-driven factories. Urbanization, population control policies, and cultural shifts have pushed China's average birth rate below those in more developed countries like the United States. Meanwhile, as a result of growing urban affluence, workforce participation rates are in decline, especially among women. Together, these factors are pushing wages upward, with an average annual increase of 12 percent since 2001. That trend offers plenty of incentive to factory owners and government officials to pursue automation.

Of course, what looks sensible from the perspective of the economic planner's office is more distressing from the factory floor. In March, Caixin, a Chinese business magazine, reported that Midea, a major Chinese manufacturer of air-conditioners and other appliances, plans to cut 6,000 of its 30,000 workers in 2015 to make way for automation. By 2018, it will cut another 4,000. What will happen to those and the millions of other low skill workers who will be displaced by the shift?

When Foxconn, the contract manufacturer for many Apple products, announced in 2011 that it was beginning a three-year program to replace some of its workers with as many as 1 million robots, the company said it was doing so out of a "desire to move workers from more routine tasks to more value-added positions in manufacturing such as R&D." But even if those intentions were sincere, Foxconn never gave any indication that it would have enough higher-skilled positions to employ every displaced iPhone assembler.

Still, it's easy to see how China's millions of low-skill workers might still be left with an uncomfortable sense of impending obsolescence — a sense not unknown to their working class counterparts in more developed economies.

Their best hope is the simple fact that China's economy continues to grow. True, at a projected 7 percent for 2015, the country is not growing as fast as a decade ago. But that should be plenty fast enough for China's shrinking labor force to find other opportunities, and avoid competing — for now — with China's inevitable robot workforce.
Growth Hope Not the Answer

If China's best hope is growth, then China has little hope.

Two to three percent growth is the best China can hope for, on average, over the next decade or so. Growth in robots though, is here to stay.

Chinese growth (global growth too) is headed one way, lower, and at a faster pace than most think. The key problems are debt, demographics, and asset bubbles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot