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marți, 28 februarie 2012

Stepping Up When Duty Called

Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Stepping Up When Duty Called

President Obama invited six special senior citizens to visit the White House to honor as unsung heroes, in recognition of Black History Month. These individuals strengthen their communities through extraordinary everyday acts of service -- reliably committed, but seldom recognized.

Watch our interviews with these six amazing Americans in "Honoring Unsung Heroes":

Seth's Blog : "It's not prime enough"

"It's not prime enough"

"That number is too even... can you make the next one even odder?"

The thing about math is that it's right or wrong, on or off, yes or no. Seven is a prime number, there's no improving it.

The thing about life/business/culture and the things we make and do is that they are not math.

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luni, 27 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sarkozy Breaks Campaign Pledge, Says Treaty Too Complicated For A Vote
Capital Flight From Italy, Greece, Portugal Accelerates; Two Trillion Fantasy; Merkel Weaker Every Week; Crude and Geopolitical Risks
Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention; How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign

Sarkozy Breaks Campaign Pledge, Says Treaty Too Complicated For A Vote

Posted: 27 Feb 2012 09:53 PM PST

French president Nicolas Sarkozy is campaigning on a pledge to consult people directly on "significant issues". However, despite trailing in polls, Sarkozy refuses to agree to referendum on EU fiscal treaty.

Mr Sarkozy, who is trailing the socialist François Hollande in opinion polls seven weeks before the presidential election, came under pressure to promise a referendum on the pact after he pledged to consult the people directly on significant issues if re-elected.

"No," he replied when asked on French radio yesterday if he would put the treaty to a public ballot. "If you're dealing with a treaty with 200 articles, 250 articles, I can't see how you'd formulate a clear question."

The French electoral calendar means the treaty cannot be passed by parliament until after the election. Mr Hollande has said he will seek to renegotiate parts of the deal if he wins, a move that has been criticised by Mr Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Arnaud Montebourg, a prominent party figure who came third in the presidential primary last autumn and has been campaigning for Mr Hollande, went further than the candidate by predicting the treaty "will never be ratified".

Mr Montebourg said a left-wing majority in France would never vote for the pact, while there was "not a majority" in favour of it in Ireland, the UK or other European countries. "The 'Merkozy' treaty would inflict austerity on all of Europe and plunge us dangerously into recession," he said.

Too Complicated To Form a Clear Question?

Sarkozy says "I can't see how you'd formulate a clear question."

Mish Attempt to Formulate Clear Question For Voters

Punch Yes to Approve Treaty
Punch No to Disapprove Treaty

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Capital Flight From Italy, Greece, Portugal Accelerates; Two Trillion Fantasy; Merkel Weaker Every Week; Crude and Geopolitical Risks

Posted: 27 Feb 2012 08:49 AM PST

Via Email, here is a nice summary of European events from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank in Denmark. Topics include the G20 Summit, Extend-and-Pretend Dogma, Capital Flight , and Geopolitical Risks.

Steen Writes ...

Two Trillion Fantasy

This week-end's G-20 came and went without any real new information. Yes, the policy makers wants us to believe ultimately IMF will have 2 trillion US dollars at its disposal.

No, the US, UK and rest of non-Europe is not really interested before we all get more clarification on how Europe will ring fence the debt crisis.

This is more and more Wall Street vs. Main Street: Underfunded banks buys underfunded government bonds and underfunded governments guarantees underfunded banks.

The real loser being the unemployed - Edward Heath put it more elegantly: Unemployment is of vital importance, particularly to the unemployed.

Meanwhile the real economy and unemployment is exploding higher adding further burdens to already stretched government deficits.

The new EU forecast for GDP growth in 2012 of minus .3% from this past Friday down from plus .05% is great example of how EU and the debt crisis non-solutions continues to lack behind fundamentals. Soon the rising disconnect will hit the politicians games of buying time.

Capital Flight

Merkel Weaker Every Week

Chancellor Merkel is weaker, week after week. She soon will have to rely on SPD votes if she continues down this path. 62 percent polled over weekend are against giving more money to Greece and 2/3 don't believe Greece can be saved according to German newspaper Bild.

Finland will have an interesting vote this week. Follow it closely.

The G20 did not give more credibility to more funds but they sure talked the talk of extend-and-pretend dogma.

Geopolitical Risks

Crude: We are potentially a few weeks from some sort of confrontation unfortunately. IEA report from Iran is due this week. Israel's time window is closing if you believe the media coming out of Israel. Iran's finances are running out of time as well. Iran failed to pay for Indian rice last week.

High energy prices will soon spill-over into gasoline and survey data and will start to impact data and sentiment negatively.

Greece Controlled Default: Greece will have a controlled default and a vacation from Europe.

Portugal CDS Spreads: Portugal is the real issue and containment is almost impossible. CDS spreads suggest the probability of default within five years is about 65 percent.

Nice money printing week,
Steen Jakobsen

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention; How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign

Posted: 27 Feb 2012 12:33 AM PST

There are 2,286 republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first round.

Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From where I sit, one is increasingly likely.

Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).

State	Primary	Count	Romney	Santorum	Gingrich	Paul
Total to Date	-	243	99	47	32	20
Iowa	Jan 3	28	6	7	0	0
New Hampshire	Jan 10	12*	7	0	0	3
South Carolina	Jan 21	25	2	0	23	0
Florida	Jan 31	50*	50	0	0	0
Nevada	Feb 4	28	14	3	6	5
Minnesota	Feb 7	40	2	17	1	4
Colorado	Feb 7	36	9	17	2	1
Maine	Feb 11	24	9	3	0	7
Michigan	Feb 28	30*	13	11	2	4
Arizona	Feb 28	29	29	0	0	0
Washington	Mar 3	43	13	17	5	8
Georgia	Mar 6	76	19	22	27	8
Ohio	Mar 6	66	19	27	13	7
Tennessee	Mar 6	58	16	25	7	10
Virginia	Mar 6	49	49	0	0	0
Oklahoma	Mar 6	43	11	18	9	5
Massachusetts	Mar 6	41	28	8	2	3
Idaho	Mar 6	32	32	0	0	0
North Dakota	Mar 6	28	10	12	3	3
Alaska	Mar 6	27	10	11	3	3
Vermont	Mar 6	17	11	4	1	1
Super Tuesday Est	Mar 6	782	359	202	104	72
If Paul Wins Idaho	Mar 6	782	327	202	104	104

* States penalized half of their delegates.

Thru Super-Tuesday Scenarios
Romney 359 Others 423 (Romney wins Idaho)
Romney 327 Others 455 (Romney loses Idaho)

Notes

I assigned delegates by expected percentages based on recent polls except in winner-take-all setups. All state delegates were assigned to the above four candidates.
In no instance did I assume Romney would do worse than his most recent polls. In several instances I bumped up Romney's poll percentages substantially.
Points one and two were not done to favor Romney per se, but rather to to give a modest boost to the prevailing idea there would not be a brokered convention.

Michigan Prediction

30 Delegates
Percent: Romney-40% Santorum-35% Gingrich-8% Paul-12%
Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-11 Gingrich-2 Paul-4
Real Clear Politics Michigan Primary Poll

Arizona Prediction
29 Delegates
Arizona is "Winner Take All"
Romney wins all 29 Delegates
Real Clear Politics Arizona Primary Poll

Washington Prediction
43 Delegates
Percent: Romney-30% Santorum-38% Gingrich-12% Paul-17%
Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-17 Gingrich-5 Paul-8
Real Clear Politics Washington Caucus Poll

Georgia Prediction
76 Delegates
Percent: Romney-24% Santorum-26% Gingrich-33% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-22 Gingrich-27 Paul-8
Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll (Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Vermont)

Ohio Prediction
66 Delegates
Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-38% Gingrich-19% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-27 Gingrich-13 Paul-7

Tennessee Prediction
58 Delegates
Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-40% Gingrich-12% Paul-16%
Delegates: Romney-16 Santorum-25 Gingrich-7 Paul-10
Vanderbilt University Tennessee Primary Survey

Virginia Prediction
49 Delegates
Romney wins all 49 Virginia delegates.
Virginia has a proportional allocation with a twist. Should any candidate take 50% in a district, the candidate will all votes in the district. In a display of complete ineptitude, Santorum and Gingrich failed to collect and turn in enough signatures on time and are not on the ballot. Romney is currently polling about 53% and Paul 23%, but Paul can only win delegates if he outright wins a district.

Oklahoma Prediction
43 Delegates
Percent: Romney-23% Santorum-42% Gingrich-20% Paul-9%
Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-18 Gingrich-9 Paul-5

Massachusetts Prediction
41 Delegates
Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8%
Delegates: Romney-28 Santorum-8 Gingrich-2 Paul-3

Idaho Prediction
32 Delegates
Romney wins all 32 Idaho delegates
January Straw Poll Results Romney-34% Santorum-10% Gingrich-12% Paul-43%
February Straw Poll Results Romney-45.4% Paul 42.7%

A third straw poll will be held March 1-3 and my answer may change based on the results of that poll.

Ron Paul or Mitt Romney will likely take all of the delegates based on the explanation below. Whether or not Paul or Romney takes all the votes depends entirely on whether or not Gingrich or Santorum can win any counties which at this time looks doubtful.
Idaho Caucus Explanation:

Voters will go to locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.

In each round the candidate with the fewest votes or anyone with less than 15% is out of the race. The voting ends at the county level when there is a final vote for two candidates or one has more than 50% of the vote for that county.

The delegates assigned for that county will then represent the winning candidate. Counties will report their winner to the state office in Boise. If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote for all of Idaho, they get all 32 delegates. Otherwise, the candidates split delegates they won in each county

I cannot find any recent polls for North Dakota, Alaska, or Vermont. Romney should do extremely well in Vermont and fair at best in North Dakota and Alaska.

North Dakota Prediction
28 Delegates
Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-12 Gingrich-3 Paul-3

Alaska Prediction
27 Delegates
Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-11 Gingrich-3 Paul-3

Vermont Prediction
17 Delegates
Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8%
Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-4 Gingrich-1 Paul-1

How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign

I purposely bumped up Romney's percentages to see if a brokered convention would still be possible. I also awarded Romney all 32 delegates in Idaho even though that race is a statistical dead-heat with Ron Paul.

If Ron Paul wins Idaho, and the rest of my numbers above are close, the odds of a brokered convention are well above 50 percent in my estimation. There may be a brokered convention anyway, provided Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich stay in to the end.

Fuzzy Math

The New York Times discusses The G.O.P.'s Fuzzy Delegate Math.

There are 2,286 delegates to the Republican National Convention, of which 1,144 are required to clinch a majority. The Web site TheGreenPapers.com, which has extensive information on delegate-selection procedures in each state, divides them into two broad categories, what it calls "hard" and "soft." Hard delegates are formally bound to a candidate on at least the first ballot at the convention, while soft delegates are not.

Although this is a useful conceptual framework, it probably simplifies things too much. Instead, Republican delegates exist along something of a spectrum between bound and unbound, pledged and unpledged, hard and soft.

Contributing to the confusion is that there are a series of three interrelated ideas about delegates which are often treated as interchangeable, even though they are not:

Bound vs. Unbound Delegates. Is the delegate officially bound to a particular candidate on at least the first ballot at the convention?

Pledged vs. Unpledged Delegates. Whether or not she is formally bound to a candidate, will the delegate's candidate preference be known in advance of the convention and reported upon by the news media?
.
Elected vs. Selected Delegates. Was the delegate selected through some relatively direct means, such as based on the popular vote in the state's primary? Or through some indirect means, like through the series of conventions that often take place in caucus states, and which may not correspond to the popular vote there?

Category of Delegates

Legal Challenges on the Way

I did not take any of the bound, unbound, super-delegate counts into consideration. However, I was rather generous to Romney in other ways.

Moreover, there are legal challenges pending in Arizona and Florida. Winner-Take-All primaries are a violation of Republican National Committee rules if held before April 1. As it stands, Romney 50 Florida delegates and 29 Arizona delegates that could dramatically change the totals.

Should Romney loses those challenges and also lose Idaho, a brokered convention would be all but certain.

If Wishes Were Fishes

If wishes (mine) were fishes, then Ron Paul would win the nomination outright. A more realistic wish is for a brokered convention because Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are all likely to lose to Obama.

I believe Paul would defeat Obama although polls don't currently support that idea.

Republicans Need to Face the Facts

Of the four candidates, only Ron Paul balances the budget, only Ron Paul wants to stop the war-mongering, only Ron Paul does not alienate the majority of women, only Ron Paul can ignite a fire in independents, and independents (not the radical right), are the key to this election.

Republicans are not going to vote for Obama so appealing to the far right makes little sense in terms of an overall strategy. Moreover, independents are likely horrified by the war-mongering and misguided statements on religious and social issues of all the candidates but Paul.

If Republicans lose this election, it will be because they all outdid each other in foolish attempts to appeal to the far right on issues where a huge majority of the population of the US is in the middle.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

How Happy is the Meal You’re Paying For [Infographic]

Posted: 27 Feb 2012 02:47 PM PST

With iconic products, especially food products that are marketed primarily to children, I think it's beneficial to take a moment to investigate how products this recognizable and loved have become so iconic. 37% of children say McDonald's is their fast food chain of choice, and no other company gets more than 10% of their vote.

This infographic lays out some of the details of the recent San Francisco Healthy Food Ordinance, and it also explores some of the facts behind how McDonald's has become such a popular chain with children. I didn't know before reading this, for example, that Happy Meal toys have made McDonalds is the world's largest toy distributor. This infographic also lays how some of the backlash has inspired response from McDonald's. I think it will be interesting to see how what they change and adapt to please both the customers that want more nutritious options, as well as the ones that want to be able to order one that may be less healthy.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via: frugaldad
More Infographics.

The Epic Failure of Google+ Graywolf's SEO Blog

The Epic Failure of Google+

Posted: 27 Feb 2012 10:30 AM PST

In the past, I’ve not been shy about hiding my dislike for some of Google’s practices. In fact, I’ve called them everything from an arrogant bully to an incestuous circle jerk, trapped in a filter bubble world . But recently I’ve been reading all of the press and counter press about how Google+ is growing faster than the waistline of your average McDonald’s customer along with the incessant blood sucking social media guru’s top ten posts about how to leverage Google+ for everything from attention, mindshare, links, SEO, and Fritos covered with caviar. It’s all a bunch of BS: Google+ is doomed to fail. The only people too blind to see it are the techno-weenies, social media charlatans, or any other clueless half wits who think getting on the homepage of techmeme is a meaningful goal worth achieving.

if you are a Silicon Valley reporter, talking with a Googler on video chat is the equivalent of a 13 year old girl talking to Justin Bieber…

Let’s get one thing straight: Google is an amazing company. They have built some amazing top of the line products that I love and use by choice daily because they are top of the line (like Google Apps). Other products (like Google buzz and Google wave) suck worse than a Bethany Getting Married weekend marathon on Bravo. But what makes a Google product work and what doesn’t? It’s really quite similar to way things work in the rest of the world. What works is building products that solve problems for CONSUMERS and are things that “normal people” want to use, not products companies want to ram down the throats of normal consumers for the company’s own best interests. The reason Facebook works is because it allows “regular” people to connect and socialize with their friends. The reason people loathe Facebook ads and Facebook pulled their online stores is because it was like trying to sell things to your friends while they were hanging out at the bar. You were the annoying Amway dude that no one wanted to talk to or be around.

So why does Google+ suck despite all the free hippie love from the tech community fan boys? First off the tech community has the attention span of a squirrel on ADD medication. This is the new shiny cat toy of the moment. They all want to play with it. To be honest, they are like political commentators on CNN: they have 24 hours a day to fill with programing (or, in their case, a day’s worth of page view journalism). They will say anything for 15 more seconds of air time time, more attention, or a boost in klout score. You should pretty much ignore 90% of the things that come out of their mouths. Secondly, deep down inside they all want to work for Google. Maybe it’s the peer respect, the pay, the perks, or just maybe it’s the free lunch. Since Google tied all of the Google employee’s benefits to the success of Google’s social network, Google employees are now highly motivated to engage with “the common folk” using all the nifty things on Google+ like video chat. This is all smoke and mirrors to get you to think Google+ is where the cool kids are when they’re really not (its the real world equivalent of paying celebrities to show up at a party). However, if you are a Silicon Valley reporter, talking with a Googler on video chat is the equivalent of a 13 year old girl talking to Justin Bieber. Yea, I went there–but just try and tell me it’s not true.

But you can’t build a data collection system and Rube Goldberg it into a social network

When Google started out, their goal was to build a great search engine. They did, and it changed everything. Nowadays when Google sets out to build something, they don’t do it to build the best product in its class; they do it to extract more data from/about you, profile you better, and sell you to advertisers as a more targeted and qualified prospect (ad retargeting anyone). Google wallet wasn’t designed to build a great, frictionless commerce system. It was designed to pull you away from PayPal and to extract as much data as possible about your purchasing habits. Google buzz wasn’t designed to help you discover cool fun stuff on the web. It was designed to build a set of trust data about your friends (aka your social graph) and what they read and like. Then it filters out the fake social media spam and SEO BS with social proof so companies can make their SERPS better to charge more to advertisers. They just were too good at it and got busted. Google+ wasn’t designed to create an amazing social network to allow you to connect with your friends. It was built to validate your social graph data, keep you off Facebook and Twitter, keep you in the filter bubble of your “friends likes” and, more importantly, keep you in the Google ecosystem as much as possible.

Aside from the naive delusional tech press, who are little more than puppets on strings at this point, regular people “know without knowing exactly why” that Google is being disingenuous and lying to them. But for now, thanks to SPYW being integrated into Google’s SERPS, if you sell anything on the web, you have to play with social media to remain competitive. However, you should never put all your eggs in one basket, especially one you are going to let Facebook, Twitter, or Google+ carry around for you. You’ll never know when they will decide to change or phase out your mission critical business functions or take your data and keep it to themselves, leaving you to swing from the gallows.

photo credit: Shutterstock/Akva

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BOTW.org - Get a premier listing in the internet's oldest directory.
Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
Need an SEO Audit for your website, look at my SEO Consulting Services
Directory Journal - Get permanent deep links in a search engine friendly directory
LinkWheel SEO - Get Web 2.0 Backlinks
TigerTech - Great Web Hosting service at a great price.
Article-Writing-services.org - Article Writing Services creates quality content for websites and blogs at no cost to site owners.
Link Building Services - Hire WeBuildLink.com for well-planned advanced link building campaigns. Very affordable. Contact us now for a FREE evaluation.
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This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis Wordpress Theme review.

The Epic Failure of Google+

Backstage at White House Red, White & Blues Concert

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, February 27, 2012

Backstage at White House Red, White & Blues Concert

Legendary American music duo, Susan Tedeschi and Derek Trucks were on hand in the East Wing, for our "In Performance at the White House: Red, White & Blues" concert.

Check out this behind the scenes video of the two performing "Rollin' and Tumblin' " at the White House.

marți, 28 februarie 2012

Stepping Up When Duty Called

Seth's Blog : "It's not prime enough"

"It's not prime enough"

More Recent Articles

luni, 27 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

The Epic Failure of Google+ Graywolf's SEO Blog

The Epic Failure of Google+ Graywolf's SEO Blog

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Backstage at White House Red, White & Blues Concert

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marți, 28 februarie 2012

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luni, 27 februarie 2012

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