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Perhaps, but that doesn't mean we need to pay the slightest bit of attention.
There are two things that disqualify someone from being listened to:
1. Lack of Standing. If you are not a customer, a stakeholder or someone with significant leverage in spreading the word, we will ignore you. And we should.
When you walk up to an artist and tell her you don't like her painting style, you should probably be ignored. If you've never purchased expensive original art, don't own a gallery and don't write an influential column in ArtNews, then by all means, you must be ignored.
If you're working in Accounts Payable and you hate the company's new logo, the people who created it should and must ignore your opinion. It just doesn't matter to anyone but you.
I'm being deliberately harsh here for a reason. If we're going to do great work, it means that some people aren't going to like it. And if the people who don't like it don't have an impact on what happens to the work after it's complete, the only recourse of someone doing great work is to ignore their opinion.
2. No Credibility. An opinion needs to be based on experience and expertise. I know you don't like cilantro, but whether or not you like it is not extensible to the population at large. On the other hand, if you have a track record of matching the taste sensibility of my target market, then I very much want to hear what you think.
People with a history of bad judgment, people who are quick to jump to conclusions or believe in unicorns or who have limited experience in the market--these people are entitled to opinions, but it's not clear that the creator of the work needs to hear them. They've disqualified themselves because the method they use for forming opinions about how the market will respond is suspect. The scientific method works, and if you're willing to suspend it at will and just go with your angry gut, we don't need to hear from you.
If these two standards sound like precisely the opposite of what gets you on talk radio or active in anonymous chat rooms, you're right. Running your business or your campaign or your non-profit or your sports team based on what you hear on talk radio is nuts.
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Posted: 08 Apr 2012 08:35 PM PDT The blatant hypocrisy and arrogance of president Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary Clinton in the following video is simple stunning. Link if video does not play: Hypocrisy Over Oil Caroline Baum on "Obama the Omniscient" Inquiring minds are reading Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum's article President Scapegoat Can't Stop Picking on Big Oil Barack Obama isn't the first U.S. president to conjure up scapegoats to serve his political ends. The Roosevelts, both Teddy and Franklin, were masters at the game. TR decided the trusts were an enemy of the people and busted the likes of Standard Oil and Northern Securities, which controlled the railroads in the northwest. FDR demonized just about anyone who had money.Why Are Oil Prices High?
Obama does not want to admit any of the above, so instead he blames the energy companies. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
US Offers to "Negotiate" if Iran Surrenders; Thoughts on Negotiation Tactics; Obama Threatens War Posted: 08 Apr 2012 11:09 AM PDT President Obama has stepped up the rhetoric against Iran with an offer to "negotiate". His offer is no offer at all, it is a demand to surrender. There will be nothing left to "negotiate" if Iran accepts the offer. This is what Obama demands before "negotiation" begins.
The New York Times reports U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With Iran The Obama administration and its European allies plan to open new negotiations with Iran by demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling of a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain, according to American and European diplomats.Iran's Right to Produce Non-Weapons Grade Nuclear Fuel Iran has as much right as anyone else to produce non-weapons grade nuclear fuel. Moreover, having watched the US destroy Iraq for absolutely no reason, one should put itself in Iranian shoes and understand the need for Iran to want to defend itself. Thoughts on "Negotiation" Tactics It is common practice in negotiation proceedings to reach for the sky with extreme positions on both sides. It is not common practice to tell the other side we will not even sit down to negotiate if you do not surrender in advance. Cooler heads might prevail if there was actually something to "negotiate" over. Obama Threatens War President Obama made no offer to "negotiate" anything. Rather Obama "Last Chance" message can only be construed as a thinly veiled threat to wage war. No doubt, the warmongers in Congress and the defense department are angling for just that. However, the US cannot afford and the world does not need another nonsensical war, one that could easily cause the price of gasoline to double or more. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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If you're scouting for a first baseman, you should keep your eyes open for someone with good twitch skills. Insanely fast reflexes, the ability to snatch a ball out of the air, someone who might not be able to run a marathon but is insanely quick with no notice.
Twitch skills used to be rarely needed in the business world. There were certainly people on trading desks or in air traffic control towers who had to have the ability to shoot first and ask questions later, but generally, we rewarded those that could find and stick to the long line.
Not sure if you've noticed, but in the last twelve months, the social internet is emphasizing twitch more than ever before. All that smart phone checking and checking in and name checking and instant rejoindering is amplifying the work of those that are just a little quicker than everyone else.
Twitch is very satisfying. You can go home knowing that you volleyed everything there was to volley that day, that you played the digital cards you were dealt beautifully, that you gained a few followers and a little respect. Twitch is a constant adrenaline rush, during which you have to plan very little and take responsibility for less. Turn inbound into outbound...
Here's the thing: While twitch may pay off in any ten minute cycle, I'm not sure if it gets you very far in the long run, where the long run might be as short as two weeks.
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Posted: 07 Apr 2012 10:43 PM PDT Illinois has combined $137 billion in pension and healthcare liabilities on top of $9 billion in current unpaid bills. Yet, Illinois legislators will not even ask 6-figure pensioners to pick up a portion of their health premiums. The Chicago Tribune reports Surprise! You owe another $54 billion If Springfield won't ask six-figure pension beneficiaries to pick up a portion of their health premiums, what are the odds that state legislators will confront their pension monster?Who is to blame for this mess?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006 Posted: 07 Apr 2012 10:37 AM PDT In a much needed development U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006 U.S. local-government payrolls fell to the lowest level in more than six years in a sign that municipalities still face fiscal strains almost three years after the end of the recession.Not Even Half The Battle Unfortunately, firing useless bureaucrats is not even half the battle. Accrued pension benefits is the big problem for cities and states. Except in a handful of bankruptcies, little overall progress has been made. Needed Steps
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 07 Apr 2012 12:10 AM PDT Some rather shocking delinquency numbers (to mainstream media readers but not readers of Mish, Acting Man, Zero Hedge, Max Keiser, the Slog etc.) have surfaced in Spain. Courtesy of Google Translate please consider The default property is multiplied by ten since 2008. Upfront Notes:
With those notes out of the way, please consider the following translation. Since the crisis began in 2008, the Spanish financial sector accounts have been seriously damaged by late payment of real estate companies, which rose from 1.98% in the first quarter of this year to 20.9% it closed 2011.Most mainstream media is woefully late in reporting this kind of news even though it is generally available with a bit less of a lag in Spain. More importantly, some of us have predicted this catastrophe far in advance. Thus, what is shocking to many Johnny-come-lately analysts is simply a realization of what had to happen. A few of us insisted from the get-go that Greece, Spain, and Portugal would all blow sky high, and that process is clearly underway now. The party is not over yet because those countries, and perhaps even Italy are destined to leave the Eurozone (or extract equivalent punishment out of Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France). Mathematically this must happen, so it will. Delays and bailouts will increase the costs. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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