luni, 17 iunie 2013
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Seth's Blog : The thermostat and the frying pan
The thermostat and the frying pan
If you want to cool your house to 68 degrees fahrenheit quickly, setting the thermostat to 62 degrees isn't going to get it temperate any faster than if you set it to 68. It blows full cold until it hits the number, then it stops. (For those down under where it is winter, the opposite is also true--extreme thermostat settings won't warm you up any faster).
Frying pans don't work that way. Turning the temperature on the burner all the way up will certainly heat up that pan faster.
Ah, an analogy!
There is significant pressure on marketers to get it done fast. And so the inclination to spend a lot, to race around, to turn the thermostat to its most extreme state. Yelling, basically.
But all the yelling doesn't build your brand faster. In fact, it might do quite the opposite. Trusted brands don't get there by spending their whole budget on one Super Bowl ad. Valuable marketing campaigns are the result of time and user experience, not media and more media. Tweeting more often doesn't make your tweets have more resonance.
On the other hand, product design and user interaction definitely benefit from the frying pan approach. Extraordinary products, remarkable stories, intense connection via user interaction--these things actually do scale quickly.
The movie business has seduced itself into believing that they can turn the thermostat to absolute zero and use a massive media push to make a moribund movie work. They can't. They'd be far better off putting the risk and the effort into making movies worth talking about instead.
Social media is a marathon, a gradual process in which you build a reputation. The best time to start was a while ago. The second best time to start is today. But turning it up to 11 isn't going to get you there faster.
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duminică, 16 iunie 2013
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday
- Greece Tax Filing Bureaucracy in Action
- Superman Joins a Union
- Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast?
Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:27 PM PDT As most of you know, I lost my wife Joanne on May 16 last year to ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease. We were happily married for 27 years. Joanne's three closest friends, Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie all wanted me to move on, have fun, meet someone and enjoy life. But where does one who is 59 years old find someone? The bar scene may work for someone 21 to 35. For someone 59, the bar scene is a near-certain strikeout. There are numerous online services but most of the horror stories speak for themselves. I do have a close friend who was "successful" on the exact 100th match. No thanks. I decided to try a place called Selective Search. I found them doing a search for executive matching. There are other high-end matching services, but I liked the Selective Search model. One key difference between Selective Search and other executive matching services is only the men pay. The advantages and disadvantages of such an approach should be obvious. The advantage to men is there are far more women in the system. The advantage to women is they do not pay and thus have nothing to lose. Selective Search interviews every candidate and they weed out men who are not seriously looking for a relationship; they weed out women who appear to be gold-diggers, and they weed out people with unrealistic goals (for example a 60 year-old overweight man who wants to find a 23-year-old beauty-queen match). My Criteria Preferably, I wanted someone with a nice smile and slender build, who likes to travel, likes golf, likes to kayak, and likes to play cards. My "dealbreakers" were smoking, someone with young kids, and someone who wanted more kids. Liz was my second date, matched personally by "Molly", my Selective Search matchmaker. Liz, 52, had a cutoff age of 55, "but he JUST turned 59" quipped Molly, and Liz decided to take a chance. We went out for dinner on Saturday, November 3, then again on November 6, Election Day. Very quickly we started seeing a lot of each other. Since then we bought and decorated a Christmas tree together, have been to Mexico, Mackinaw Island, gone hiking in state parks, went kayaking twice, golf on numerous occasions, and even won two regional duplicate bridge tournaments together. The odds of quickly finding someone with those interests except via a high-end matching service is about zero percent, no matter how long one looks. Old Friends, New Friends Liz and Joanne's closest friends have met, and we have even traveled together, to Mexico. Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie have embraced Liz and vice versa. Kathy, was my "best man" at the wedding. Meet Liz Here are some pictures from our two most recent trips. Click on any image for sharper view. Sipping Tea on Front Porch of Grand Hotel - Mackinac Island Mackinac Island Michigan Carriage Ride Mackinac Island - Fun in Phone Booth Glen Arbor Michigan - Rhododendrons Sunset, Sipping Wine at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Sunset Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs Starved Rock State Park, Utica IL, Waterfall After Spring Rain Yes, we got wet taking that picture (Liz got soaked while I was fooling around trying to find the best angle), but it was fun. And, life's too short to not have fun with a compatible soulmate. I am extremely fortunate to have found Liz. And I could not possibly be happier. We are going on a delayed honeymoon at the end of July and early August in Prague (the capital and largest city of the Czech Republic), Munich Germany, and Rothenburg ob der Tauber (a lovely fairy-tale city on the Romantic Road in Germany). I will post some pictures while there. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Greece Tax Filing Bureaucracy in Action Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:00 PM PDT My friend "Lefteris" reports .. Greece decided that all tax returns will be filed electronically. Great! There is no more standing in line at the tax office to file your tax return. This is probably a problem for some older folks, but arguably it's a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, you still have to go to the tax office and wait in line with your ID in order to get a "password" to use the new electronic system. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Jun 2013 07:34 PM PDT Inquiring minds may be wondering what would happen if the "Man of Steel" were forced to join a union. The following video explains. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast? Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:16 AM PDT Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD anti-euro party leader) has emailed me several times since Friday about polls conducted by the German tabloid Bild. Emphasis must be placed on the the word "tabloid" because intellectuals and academics do not tend to read the paper, nor even acknowledge its existence. Nonetheless, Bild is the number one readership paper in Germany, by far, with about 20 million readers daily. And a poll is a poll, not a slanted news article. The Bild is not a supporter of AfD in the least. If the poll is pro-Afd biased, it surely was not by the Bild. With that backdrop here are a few emails from reader Bernd. Friday June 14 Hi Mish,Saturday, June 15 Hi Mish,Sunday, June 16 Hi MishMish Comments Online polls can be manipulated but Bernd counters with "To vote several times you need to clear the cache and clear the cookies each time. I guess 99% of Bild online readers do not know how to do that." Still, the results are not scientific and a few very dedicated people could easily have hijacked the results. However, "could" and "did" are not the same thing. I see this as very similar to the rise of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) in Italy, where the mainstream media gave M5S no chance, yet M5S ended up as the largest political party in Italy at election time. If AfD gets as much as 10% of the vote and FDP does not clear the 5% threshold (both are likely), Angela Merkel will not survive the coalition building process or will be dramatically weakened in the process. Wahl-O-Meter Update Wahl-O-Meter shows support for AfD at 7.9% with FPD dropping to 4.5%. With the threshold for parliament participation at 5% it is FPD, not AfD that is on the bubble. Political Party Explanation Please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for. Prediction I am sticking with my April 23 prediction Merkel Loses Chancellorship in September as Support for AfD Soars Addendum: Bernd writes "The poll was done by Bild Online and not the physical tabloid. Bild tabloid has a circulation of about 3 million copies per day with a readership reach of about 12 Million (Bild's own claimed numbers). Each paper is read by 4 people. Pure observation in any train or street car in Germany will confirm this assumption. Between Bild tabloid and Bild Online the readership reach is claimed to be 20 Million. It is difficult to assess how high the online readership truly is, because the numbers come from two different sources." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Seth's Blog : "I get it"
"I get it"
No need to read the whole book, I can just glance over the Cliffs Notes... I get it.
I don't need to hear your whole pitch, just show me the summary slide... got it.
No, I already heard about your vacation... remember, I saw the Instagram feed.
Him, why would I go out with him? I read his match.com profile.
You're probably smart enough to 'get it' merely by reading the 140 character summary of just about anything. But of course, that doesn't mean you understand it, or that it changed you. All it means is that you were quickly able to sort it into an appropriate category, to make a decision about where it belongs in your mental filing cabinet.
The best experiences and the biggest ideas don't fit into a category. They change it. They don't get filed away, they transform us.
It's entirely possible that you can process and file more information than anyone who has come before you. And quite likely that this filing is preventing you from growing and changing and confronting the fear that's holding you back.
You get it? No you don't. Not yet. Because all you've gotten is a tweet.
Read the book. The whole thing. Use the product. A few times. More than a few times.
Immersed. It can change you.
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sâmbătă, 15 iunie 2013
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Dumb and Dumber Tax Hikes in Italy; Grand Coalition Splintering; Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up Posted: 15 Jun 2013 10:24 AM PDT One of the dumbest things a country can do in a recession is raise taxes. Yet, after pronouncing the end of austerity, Italy's "grand coalition" government, led by Enrico Letta, is going to hike the VAT. Why? It seems they need to hike the VAT to pay for a decrease in property taxes. Recall that Silvio Berlusconi was only willing to take part in Letta's grand coalition on condition property tax hikes were rolled back. Letta agreed to do that, but now Letta says Italy needs revenue hikes to make up for it. Grand Coalition Splintering Curiously, the International Business Times reports Enrico Letta's Grand Coalition Could End Italy's 'Lingering Civil War' . What nonsense. Letta's "grand coalition" is burnt toast already. Eurointelligence gets it right. Il Corriere della Sera and other Italian papers are leading with the news that finance minister Fabrizio Saccomanni and another cabinet ministers said yesterday that Italy cannot simultaneously afford to cut the IMU housing tax and not implement an envisaged rise in VAT, and would thus opt to raise VAT.Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up I agree with the following comments from Eurointelligence: "A rise in VAT is probably the worst thing that can happen right now ... Italy will miss the 2.9% deficit target, since the economy is likely to go into another convulsion once VAT is raised." Beppe Grillo 5-Star Movement Implodes As a side note the 5-Star movement of Beppe Grillo is imploding as well. Two more MPs have left the Movimento 5 Stelle parliamentary group, the Huffington Post Italia reports, bring the total number to five. Lawmakers Alessandro Furnari and Giuliana Labriola have quit M5S after internal fights, accusing Grillo of being a dictator and the party for failing to make substantive proposals. In an interview, Furnari said the M5S was dying due the Grillo' mix of inexperience, rawness and vulgar display of ideas without content.Support for Grillo is now down to 14% from over 25% in the election (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy). Reader "AC", from Italy, predicted the rise of Beppe Grillo well in advance of any mainstream media coverage, also told me "Grillo has peaked" shortly after the national election. She called that one correctly as well. Infighting is everywhere in Italy now. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
The Top 10 Superfoods for Exceptional Health [Infographic] Posted: 15 Jun 2013 12:56 PM PDT Superfoods are a great way to boost our health and vitality naturally. Not only are they good for us, most of them taste delicious too! While there are many great superfoods, we've listed our top ten below in an awesome infographic that details where they're sourced, which health-giving ingredients they are especially rich in and of course the potential benefits you may experience by adding them to your diet. Enjoy! Click on Image to Enlarge. Via: HealthPost.co.nz |
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