Here's what I did yesterday:

Hi, everyone -- We never know what curveballs life is going to throw at us. But we do know that those curveballs come. That's why it's so important that everyone -- including healthy young adults -- sign up for health insurance and get our friends and family to sign up, too. Yesterday, I traveled to Miami to meet with folks doing extraordinary work on the ground to get more people health coverage -- and I took over the @MichelleObama Instagram account to share it all with you. Check out what my day looked like yesterday -- then help me get the word out. If you still need coverage, you only have until March 31 to sign up, so go to HealthCare.gov right away and get covered. And if you've already signed up for coverage, be sure to find those people in your lives who still need to sign up, and make sure they do it. This matters, and it's going to take every single one of us to get it done -- so let's get to work. Thank you. First Lady Michelle Obama This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com. Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

President Obama: If You Work Hard, It Should Pay Off

DAILY SNAPSHOT Thursday, March 6, 2014             Watch Live Today at 1:05 p.m. ET, President Obama will deliver a statement on Ukraine. Watch on WhiteHouse.gov/Live.     Featured President Obama: If You Work Hard, It Should Pay Off Yesterday, the President spoke to a crowd filled with students about how raising the minimum wage will expand opportunity for all Americans, young and old. Here's what President Obama had to say: Nobody who works full-time should ever have to raise a family in poverty. That violates a basic sense of who we are. And that's why it's time to give America a raise... What every American wants is a paycheck that lets them support their families, know a little economic security, pass down some hope and optimism to their kids. And that's worth fighting for. That's why it's time to raise the wage. Learn more and, if you agree, add your name. President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the minimum wage, at Central Connecticut State University in New Britain, Connecticut, March 5, 2014. The President is joined by Gov. Dannel Malloy of Connecticut; Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, Gov. Peter Shumlin of Vermont, Gov. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, and Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)     Top Stories A Day in the Life: The First Lady Talks Healthy Families in Miami Yesterday, the First Lady traveled Miami to meet with people doing extraordinary work on the ground to get more people health coverage -- and she took over the @MichelleObama Instagram account to share it all with you. READ MORE Brian Deese Answers Your Questions About the Budget After sending his 2015 budget to Congress, President Obama visited a local elementary school to discuss what he called a "roadmap" for the agenda he laid out in his State of the Union address to restore opportunity for all Americans. Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget Brian Deese took to Twitter to answer questions about the President's budget. READ MORE Presidential Innovation Fellows Round 3: Serve. Create. Innovate. Today, we are very excited to announce that applications are now being accepted for the third round of the Presidential Innovation Fellows program. This initiative pairs talented, diverse individuals from outside government with top Federal innovators to implement game-changing projects that make the Federal Government work better for the American people. READ MORE       Today's Schedule All times are Eastern Time (ET) 11:35 AM: The President participates in a town hall 1:05 PM: The President delivers a statement WATCH LIVE 1:10 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE 7:00 PM: The President and the First Lady host "In Performance at the White House: Women of Soul" WATCH LIVE Facebook    Twitter   |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

An Introduction to PR Strategy for SEOs

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An Introduction to PR Strategy for SEOs Posted: 05 Mar 2014 01:17 PM PST Posted by SamuelScott This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc. In case you missed it, Google’s head of web spam, Matt Cutts, wrote this on January 20: “Okay, I’m calling it: if you’re using guest blogging as a way to gain links in 2014, you should probably stop.” Three days later, Jen Lopez of Moz responded with this excellent post on “guest blogging with a purpose”: As with anything, you don't want to be out there trying willy-nilly to get your posts on every blog for the sole purpose of building (probably bad) links. It's important to have this tied to your business and marketing goals, as you would with any other tactic. SEO is only one piece of the larger strategy, and if you focus solely on writing posts for link building purposes, you're missing out on a ton of other possibilities. In Lopez’s post, I commented in some detail that “guest posts” are really just another name for what the public relations industry calls “by-lined articles” and that the goals of the two should be identical. In response later in that thread, Lopez and Everett Sizemore invited me to elaborate on the “PR side of SEO” in a detailed Moz post. Well, let’s get to it! Marketers, Assemble! (photo courtesy of Marvel Studios) First, let’s set the record straight. As I’ve written elsewhere while using “The Avengers” as an example (Joss Whedon fans, unite!), "SEO" is actually just a slang term for a collection of best practices -- it is doing web development well, content creation well, social media well, PR well, and so on. This is why successful SEO, and digital marketing in general, necessitates that companies “assemble” a holistic, integrated team with expertise in numerous disciplines. And that includes public relations. Rand Fishkin once tweeted a similar sentiment: Here, I’ll cover how PR relates to content and linkbuilding. PR By Any Other Name… I can already hear the groans: “But, wait! I’m not a PR flak! I’m an inbound marketer!” I completely understand â€" as a former journalist, who only later went into SEO, I specifically had been looking for something in marketing that was not PR. But the fact remains that much of inbound marketing is just PR by another name: Are you interacting with influencers, journalists, and bloggers on Twitter? Sure, you can call yourself a “social-media marketer” â€" but you are really doing PR Are you pitching guest posts by-lined articles to news outlets and other online publications? It is not “guest post marketing” â€" it is PR. Are you e-mailing people in the hopes of getting links, mentions, or anything similar? It’s often called “e-mail outreach” today, but it is just doing PR via a specific communications channel It took me a long time to accept the fact that a lot of what we do as “SEOs” is actually, well, PR. But the sooner that we accept that fact and throw away our preconceived notions about PR, the sooner that we can start to learn, adopt and benefit from its best practices. Here’s the kicker: Technologies and communications channels change, but people do not. Publicists, for example, may contact reporters with Twitter more than the telephone today â€" but it is still one human being talking with another human being. And PR experts know how to work with people. Social media is often just a communications channel â€" and not a discipline unto itself â€" that can be used by PR professionals, customer-service representatives, lead generators, and more. The Basics of PR Strategy There are many types of PR. But since the idea for this post was born out of a discussion on guest posts, I will discuss PR strategy here specifically on pitching content and story ideas to journalists and bloggers. This is a brief summary of some of the ways that The Cline Group works with our PR clients â€" and the resulting “hits” (in PR-speak) give them the added bonus of gaining quality, natural links and social media exposure as well! The first thing to understand is that public relations is an art, not a science. There are specific, defined ways to create XML sitemaps, ensure that Google can crawl and index a website, avoid duplicate-content issues, reduce page-load time, and more. PR methods, however, can vary as drastically as the number of people using them. Here, I will present the overall strategy that The Cline Group uses in our public-relations work. This strategic, step-by-step process delivers the best results. 1. Goal Identification PR is not an end. It is a means to an end. The goal is not to “get coverage” â€" the goal is to get coverage that supports a company’s overall business and marketing goals. Here are some examples of our PR clients’ goals: We want to gain VC funding or to exit by selling We want to maximize downloads of our mobile application We want to gain more leads who will become users of our B2B software We want to build our brand through authoritative content It is useless to create a PR strategy without first having a clear sense of the objective. 2. Target Market Identification The PR team must then research and compile a list of the general targeted audiences based on the goals that the client established. Here are some for the above examples: Investment: Angel investors, start-up founders, corporate VC funds Mobile Downloads: People who would be interested in a mobile app (of the given type) B2B Leads: The business owners, executives, and managers who would be interested in the solutions that the B2B software provides Content: The people who would be interested in the information that the content communicates 3. Messaging and Positioning Once the goals are determined and the target markets are identified, then the PR team can determine the positioning (how will you brand the company/individual/product/content to the target markets) and messaging (what text, images, and more will you use to communicate the positioning). Take one of our mobile-app clients, MediSafe Project. Which of the following pitches do you think would be more likely to interest reporters, and, in the end, their readers? “MediSafe reminds people to take their medication.” “A year and a half ago, Bob Shor’s diabetic dad asked him if he had seen his dad take his insulin. Bob’s answer, “No, I didn’t see you take your meds” was interpreted by his father as “No, you haven’t taken them.” His dad overdosed that day, which Bob says was the reason he and his brother Rotem created MediSafe, a collaborative app that helps keep track of long-term medication.” The second example is the opening paragraph of a Cult of Mac article. That coverage came from positioning MediSafe as a personal story rather than as just another random app. 4. Media List Creation The next step is to compile a list of the outlets â€" and the most-appropriate writers at those outlets â€" that are read by the identified target audiences. The importance of this phase of the process cannot be emphasized enough. An ideal media list should usually be comprised of publications that have all of the following (in both PR and digital contexts): The publications that are read by the target audience The specific writers at those outlets that will likely be most interested in what you are pitching Publications with large readerships Outlets (and writers) with large social-media followings Publications whose online sites have high Domain Authority When compiling media lists, remember that time is a limited resource. There are only so many hours that a PR team can devote to a campaign. At one extreme, they could send the same, generic press release to thousands of outlets via a wire service and just hope for the best. At the other extreme, they could focus all of their efforts on a single reporter at a single outlet that is highly desired. A simplistic example: Say a PR executive has one hour of pitching time â€" should he or she spend one hour on one outlet or five minutes each on twelve outlets? Usually, you want to be somewhere in the middle. 5. Press Release Development and Pitching The final stage is to craft the actual pitches and press releases. Sometimes the same press release can be used. Other times, it is best to create individualized, tailored releases for each type of outlet or each specific reporter. It just depends on the context. One example of online pitching will be discussed in the next section. A good PR strategy can lead to great SEO results such as this outcome from one single campaign for iOnRoad, a mobile app that was later bought by Harman International following our work (the PowerPoint slide originally contained an animated GIF of Hugh Laurie â€" a.k.a. Dr. House â€" from back in his British comedy TV days): This one campaign netted 591 quality links from 253 authoritative domains â€" and a lot more. Whether digital marketers are promoting a company, a product, or a piece of content, those who use this general strategy will be many steps ahead of the competition. Sizemore once summarized the importance with the following statement in this essay of his: If I had to choose between your average link builder and an expert PR professional who knew how to approach and interact with media outlets and presented well on camera, I’d go for the public relations person any day of the week. Twitter's a PR Gold Mine Twitter specifically is an invaluable tool for PR pitching â€" but it must be used strategically and wisely in this context. My colleague Scott Piro, our EMEA Managing Director and Chief Strategy Officer, has written a guide to using Twitter for media relations. I highly suggest that Mozzers read his essay for more details (not that I’m biased!), but I will summarize some of his points here: Many busy reporters do not answer their phones and receive countless e-mails, but they do pay attention to Twitter Writers will often say in their Twitter bios whether they want (or do not want) to be tweeted with pitches Twitter is public, so do not give away too many details of an exclusive story â€" switch to e-mail or the phone as soon as possible Link to a press release somewhere online (on a company website or on a wire service) Know your audience and when to be more formal and when to be more friendly Piro also gives two general examples of Twitter pitches: The Benign Intro: @journalist Do you accept story pitches? If yes, what’s the best way to send you one? THX The FYI: @journalist I emailed a story idea to your [media outlet name] address. Hope u can take a look; I think it’s rly a good fit PR: The Old and New Off-Page SEO I’d like to close this post with the rest of my comment on Lopez’s earlier Moz essay: When I was a journalist, the point of submitting freelance articles or op-ed articles was to publish a piece of quality content to build your "brand" (as a writer or pundit). It was not primarily to get links (especially when links did not exist before the public Internet). In PR, companies submit what are called "by-lined articles" to build a brand and raise awareness of your company among the readers of a certain publication. (If you sell widgets, then you want exposure in a media outlet that is read by people who buy widgets.) It is not primarily to get links. Today, it's called "guest posts." The same is true today. When my company gets articles in specific, targeted media outlets for clients, the point is first to build a brand and second to get referral traffic (and hopefully leads or sales) via a link in the author's biography or elsewhere. No-follow or not, it didn't matter… I now advocate that no one do anything with the primary purpose of "getting links." Do the great content, promote it on social media, and the links will come naturally, indirectly, and organically. You are earning them and not building them. One of these links are worth ten of the others. Example: My agency gets a client a great by-line article in a great outlet. The article may contain a (do-follow or not) backlink or not. But it doesn't matter -- the exposure is what matters. Then, the readers will see the content and perhaps write about the company on their own blogs with links. It snowballs from there. But in the end, it's not directly about the links. As long as a company does all of the "SEO" best-practices, the good links will come themselves over time. I would submit that this is what Google still likes. It is "guest posting" for reasons other than links. The same is true for press releases -- you distribute news releases to get coverage, not links. The links will then come later. It all comes down to what I’ve called the “PR-based SEO process”: The idea can be summarized as such: Do something newsworthy Create newsworthy content based on what has been done Promote the company and content Repeat as often as possible Linkbuilders often ask themselves: “Why would this website want to link to us?” Reporters ask a related question (at least to themselves): “I get dozens of pitches a day â€" why should I write about you?” If you can answer this question, you’ve got a great head start. As I wrote in the linked post above: What can a company do that would interest journalists? The possibilities are limited only by the imagination â€" release a new product, hire a big-name executive, conduct an authoritative analysis of the state of the industry, and so on. Then, create quality, engaging content in the context of the action â€" a blog post, an infographic, a press release, a video, a podcast, and so on. The next step is crucial: use traditional public relations to promote the company’s news â€" and use online PR and social media to promote the content created for the news to obtain backlinks, citations, and social-media mentions. This practice will yield far better online PR results than just stuffing backlinks into meaningless press releases. Here’s the secret: Reporters want to write about you. Years ago, space in a newspaper and minutes in a broadcast were limited. Journalists could be picky. Today, however, they know as well as we do that “content is king” and the way to maximize traffic and (for their purposes) advertising revenue. Writers are under constant pressure to write and write and write since websites can support an almost-infinite amount of content. So, it can be easier to convince them. Just give them a nudge through the strategies that we’ve presented here. For more details on SEO and public relations, I invite you to see my SMX Milan 2013 presentation and notes. I will also speak on a similar subject at SMX West in March 2014. I hope to see you there! Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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The first leap

The second leap is deciding how take your project to an entirely new level. The way Zappos redefined how shoes were sold, Charity:water changed how fundraising was done, or Mission Chinese recreated their genre of restaurant. These leaps are what the market sits up and notices.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Natural Gas Hoarding in Europe Thanks to US Sanction Proposals; Boehner vs. McCain; LNG the Solution
• Texas Democrat Senatorial Candidate Wants to Impeach Obama, End Obamacare; Other Interesting Primary Results
• Russia Has Upper Hand in Ukraine, No Meaningful Sanctions Coming
• Political Gambit of the Day: Obama Opts for Two-Year Renewal for Old Health Plans
• China Composite Output and New Orders Both Fall for First Time in Seven Months

Natural Gas Hoarding in Europe Thanks to US Sanction Proposals; Boehner vs. McCain; LNG the Solution Posted: 05 Mar 2014 05:24 PM PST US sanction proposals against Russia coupled with immediate Russian counter-threats against European interests led to an easily predictable result: natural gas hoarding. Bloomberg reports Europe's Russia Gas Imports Jump to 3-Week High as Buyers Hoard. European utilities boosted imports of natural gas from Russia to the highest level in three weeks even as storage remains at record-high levels amid the mildest winter since 2007. Russia shipped 493 million cubic meters of gas to Europe, excluding the Baltic States, on March 3, the highest level since Feb. 10, Energy Ministry data show. Storage sites in the region are 47 percent full, 12 percentage points above the same time last year and the highest since at least 2008, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the Brussels-based lobby group. U.K. gas prices jumped the most in 29 months on March 3 as Russia took control of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine, which transits about 15 percent of Europe's use, before paring gains the next day after President Vladimir Putin said there was no immediate need for military action. Bulgaria and Serbia, which suffered shortages in the past decade amid disputes between Russia and Ukraine, are pumping gas into storage. LNG Demand Russia's intervention in Ukraine will boost LNG demand from European countries eager to diversify supplies, according to Sveinung Stoehle, the Chief Executive Officer of Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd., which will deliver the first LNG import terminal in the former Soviet Union to Lithuania in August. The U.S. will begin LNG exports next year from Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)'s Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana, the first of six Energy Department approvals since 2010. There are at least 24 more projects pending clearance. The U.S. should "dramatically" expedite the approval of its gas exports to global markets, House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said March 4. Import Dependency on Gazprom Here is an interesting image from reader Arthur on European dependencies on the Russian natural gas supplier Gazprom. The chart is from Gazprom and Morgan Stanley. It is mathematically impossible to be more than 100% dependent on a supplier, at least over the long-term. Certainly, for short periods of time imports can exceed usage, but over the long haul they cannot. That said, I do not know the timeframe for the chart. It's possible the chart is reflective of recent hoarding. Regardless, the chart shows the huge dependencies some European countries have for Russian natural gas. Boehner vs. McCain In regards to Senator John McCain's proposal to sanction Russia and place missiles in the Czech Republic as the solution to the Ukraine crisis, I suggest that Speaker Boehner is thinking clearly but McCain isn't. Please see  Russia Has Upper Hand in Ukraine for discussion. LNG the Solution If natural gas is a huge problem (and it is), then additional supply from other sources, not counterproductive sanctions is the solution. Let's reduce German and European need for Russian natural gas. Do that and the Russian hold on Europe will diminish. Free market capitalism beats threats of nuclear war any day of the week. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Texas Democrat Senatorial Candidate Wants to Impeach Obama, End Obamacare; Other Interesting Primary Results Posted: 05 Mar 2014 02:45 PM PST Here's a story too funny to not report. In a field of five, no Democrat senatorial candidate received 50% of the votes in yesterday's Texas primary. As a result, Kesha Rogers is in a runoff with David Alameel on May 27. Rogers will not stand a chance in the runoff as the party will do everything to stop her because her views are "Democratically bizarre" to say the least. According to The Hill ... Rogers supports impeaching President Obama, repealing ObamaCare and "crushing Wall Street."  She also advocates the reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act to limit securities trading, and has a detailed plan for space exploration and harnessing thermonuclear fusion energy. In the past, she's drawn Hitler mustaches on Obama posters and likened ObamaCare to practices of Nazi doctors. Other Interesting Texas Primary Results In the Texas GOP primary 95% want welfare drug testing and 97% want to repeal Obamacare. Thoughts on Welfare Drug Testing Welfare drug testing is the wrong way to go. The last thing we need is another government program to do anything. I expect it would cost more to administer than it would save in reduced payouts. Besides, it would hurt kids in poor families whose parents happen to be using drugs. Instead, I make a commonsense proposal on food stamps. Mish SNAP Proposal Prohibit food stamp purchases of potato chips, snacks, soft drinks, candy, pizza, frozen foods of any kind except juice. Limit food stamp users to generic (store brand vs. name brand) dried beans, rice, peanut butter, pasta, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, frozen (not bottled) juice, canned vegetables, canned soup, soda crackers, poultry, ground beef, bread, cheese, powdered milk, eggs, margarine, and general baking goods (flour, sugar, spices). Calculate a healthy diet based on current prices, number in the family, ages of recipients, and base food stamps allotments on that diet. In the interest of health and cleanliness, expand the food stamp program to include generic soap and laundry products. My proposal will not only lower the cost of the food stamp program, the resultant healthier diets would lower Medicaid and Medicare costs as well. Moreover, my proposal would give people a strong incentive to get off the food stamp program without intrusive, costly big-brother ideas like drug testing which cannot possibly work for the simple reason that anyone who fails will steal to get food rather than starve. For further discussion, please see States Circumvent Food Stamp Cutbacks; Draconian Cuts "Much Ado About Nothing" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Russia Has Upper Hand in Ukraine, No Meaningful Sanctions Coming Posted: 05 Mar 2014 12:57 PM PST Will there be any meaningful sanctions against Russia for invading Crimea? The answer is no, and a comparison to Iran will show why. It was easy enough to impose sanctions on Iran because there was no meaningful trade with Iran other than oil. And global oil supply can come from anywhere. Secondly, and unlike the US which has little trade with Russia, Germany, the UK, and other European countries do have meaningful trade with Russia. Finally, Germany gets 30% of its natural gas supply from Russia. Impose severe sanctions and Russia can shut down those supply lines, most of which happen to run through Ukraine. Obama can pretend to put down a tough stance, but don't expect any meaningful reaction globally. Events are already firming up along those lines. UK Says No to Sanctions Two days ago the Guardian reported secret documents photographed outside No 10 Downing Street [the Prime Minister's Office] state that 'London's financial centre' should not be closed to Russians. The picture of the document was taken by the freelance photographer Steve Back, who specialises in spotting secret documents carried openly by officials entering Downing Street. The document was in the hands of an unnamed official attending a meeting of the national security council (NSC) called by the prime minister to discuss the Ukrainian crisis. The document said Britain should: • "Not support, for now, trade sanctions … or close London's financial centre to Russians." • Be prepared to join other EU countries in imposing "visa restrictions/travel bans" on Russian officials. Former US presidential candidate Senator John McCain said he was "disappointed" by the UK's position and said European countries were "ignoring the lessons of history". Asked if it was right to avoid such sanctions, he said: "Of course not. I am not astonished, to be very frank with you. Disappointed, but not astonished." McCain Wants Missiles in Czech Republic I am disappointed but hardly astonished that McCain's solution is to put missiles in the Czech Republic. Splits Emerge in West's Stance on Russia Today, the Financial Times reported Splits Emerge in West's Stance on Russia. The west's diplomatic efforts to counter Russia's takeover of Crimea faced setbacks on multiple fronts on Wednesday as the Kremlin refused to engage with the new Ukrainian government and allies themselves were at loggerheads over how tough a line to take with Moscow. The refusal of Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, to meet his Ukrainian counterpart cast a shadow over talks in Paris, the US and Russia's first top-level meeting since the crisis intensified last week. At the same time, a US-led push for allied agreement to impose sanctions on Russia also faltered with the strong resistance of Germany, which was prepared only to cut off visa liberalisation and trade agreement talks with Russia. Natural Gas and More "They're afraid if we do something the Russians will hit back," said a senior EU official involved in summit planning. You bet. The fear goes beyond natural gas. Andrei Klishas, a Russian senator, said he was preparing countermeasures which could come into effect if sanctions were imposed on Russia. The proposed legislation "would allow us to freeze the assets of European and American companies – including private ones – working in our country," he told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia. There would be serious repercussions to McCain's idea of sanctions coupled with placing US missiles in the Czech Republic. And how would McCain pay for those missiles? He does not say. Either McCain cannot think clearly, or worse yet he can and would welcome another global war. Culture of Engagement Also consider Ukraine crisis tests Berlin's new 'culture of engagement'. German chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday faces the first test of a new foreign policy sketched out by her ministers in recent weeks; a "culture of engagement" intended to replace Germany's postwar "culture of restraint". But while Berlin has played a more active role in the west's response to Ukraine, the debate over how to react to Russia's troop deployment there has illustrated the limits of Germany's new assertiveness. With deep commercial ties to Russia, Germany has been a leading voice against sanctions. There is no backing in Berlin for measures that go beyond the suspension of talks on a Russia-EU trade agreement and visa liberalisation. Germany is also arguing that any western aid to Kiev should come with tough economic conditions, supervised by the International Monetary Fund. It has opposed Polish efforts to accelerate the signing of the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement, partly out of fear of further irritating Vladimir Putin, Russian president. German business leaders point out the US has far less to lose from sanctions – American companies account for 3.8 per cent of Russian imports, compared with a share of nearly 10 per cent for German business. Germany is deeply dependent on Gazprom for its energy needs. It is the single largest buyer of Russian natural gas. More than a third of Germany's gas imports came from Russia in 2012, according to government data. Sympathy for Russia is widespread. Even conservative and habitually pro-American newspapers such as Die Welt have carried editorials warning against "demonising" Moscow. "The west should hug Putin," was the headline. Meaningful sanctions? Forget about them. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Political Gambit of the Day: Obama Opts for Two-Year Renewal for Old Health Plans Posted: 05 Mar 2014 10:46 AM PST In a desperate, and likely futile attempt to stem losses in the November mid-term elections Obama Said to Allow Two-Year Renewal for Old Health Plans. Americans who kept health plans that don't comply with Obamacare requirements will be able to renew those policies for two more years, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Obama administration, which has been deliberating the issue since November, is expected to announce today the extension of the health plans, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the decision wasn't yet public. Insurers sent letters to policyholders canceling the health plans as the new government exchanges opened Oct. 1. The letters caused a political headache for President Barack Obama, who had promised during the debate on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that people who liked their health plans wouldn't have to change them. About 2.6 million Americans received the cancellation notices, according to a study published March 3 by the journal Health Affairs. "It's clearly been a damaging gaffe that the president doesn't want to hang around the neck of fellow Democrats this fall," John Gorman, the executive chairman of Gorman Health Group, a Washington consulting firm, said in a phone interview.  Allowing people to renew old health plans may mean that some young and healthy Americans won't have to sign up for plans in the Affordable Care Act's exchanges, leaving a sicker and older population of customers. "Exchange enrollment will be lower than expected," Brian Wright, an analyst with Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. Inc. in New York said by e-mail. One consequence of Obama's policy may be that insurers in the exchanges, faced with sicker customers than they expected, will have to draw more heavily on federal programs intended to limit their financial losses. The Obama administration said yesterday that one such program is expected to payout about $5.5 billion to companies that lose money on their exchange business next year. While the program, called risk corridors, is supposed to be fully funded by taking money from insurers who turn a profit on the exchanges, there may not be enough plans in the black. "It does mean that they'll be tapping more into that pool of money to backstop some of the losses, I would think," Ana Gupte, an analyst at Leerink Partners in New York, said in a phone interview. People who stayed on old plans, which don't carry the Affordable Care Act's consumer protections, are believed to be younger and healthier in general than people on exchange plans. The insurer Humana Inc. (HUM) said in January that its exchange customers would be sicker and older than it expected in part because Obama allowed renewals of old plans. Allowing the plans to be renewed "is sort of anathema to the rest of Obamacare," Gorman said. At least 28 states allowed plans to be extended under Obama's policy, according to the Commonwealth Fund, a New York foundation that studies health policies. Don't Expect Insurers to Follow  Although 28 states allow plan extension, insurers will not necessarily follow. Once plans are cancelled there are regulations, procedures, and costs associated with bringing those plans back. Then the plans will go away in two more years anyway. Although cancellations only affected a small number of people percentage-wise,  that still amounts to 2.6 million unhappy voters. Millions of others are unhappy their costs went up. Of course some are happy their costs went down, but the overall effect of Obamacare is that some small number of people are way better off, with a far larger number of people who are somewhat to way worse off. This does not bode well for Democrats in the mid-term election. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

China Composite Output and New Orders Both Fall for First Time in Seven Months Posted: 05 Mar 2014 12:06 AM PST Signs of a global slowdown continue. The HSBC China Services PMI shows China Composite Output and New Orders Both Fall for First Time in Seven Months. HSBC China Composite PMI ™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a contraction of private sector output in China, following a six-month sequence of growth. That said, the rate of reduction was fractional overall, as signalled by the HSBC Composite Output Index posting at 49.8 in February down from 50.8 in January. Staffing levels declined at manufacturing companies again in February and at the quickest rate in nearly five years. In contrast, service sector firms expanded their payroll numbers for the sixth month running. However, service sector firms were more cautious toward s taking on more staff, as the rate of job creation eased to a five-month low. Consequently, employment levels fell modestly at the composite level. Backlogs of work decreased across both the manufacturing and service sectors in February. Though only slight, it was the first reduction of work-in-hand at goods producers since July 2013. Meanwhile, outstanding business at service providers fell at a moderate pace that was the quickest in a year. As a result, unfinished business declined marginally at the composite level. Comment Commenting on the China Services and Composite PMI™ data, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co - Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The HSBC China Services PMI suggests that service sector growth seems to be stabilising at a relatively low level. However, combined with the weaker manufacturing PMI, the overall strength of economic growth is moderating and this is starting to weigh on employment growth. Beijing policy makers can and should fine-tune policy to avoid growth deceleration in the first half of the year." Comment on the Comment The comment by Hongbin Qu is ridiculous for two reasons. First and foremost, the idea that central banks can fine-tune anything is ridiculous. History proves just that. Second, even if central banks could assure short-term growth, it is always at an expense. Hongbin Qu ignores that expense. If anything, China has overinvested in everything from vacant houses, to vacant malls, to vacant shopping centers, to unused trains and airports. To prevent further malinvestments, China actually needs to slow (and it will). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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