Central Perk

luni, 5 mai 2014

Seth's Blog : Most presentations aren't bullet proof

Most presentations aren't bullet proof

Bullets do not save time. Memos save time. Presentations aren't about the most concise exposition of facts, they are about changing minds.
Bullets are actually aggressive, they're gotchas lying in wait to be brought up later, either by an observer calling you out or a presenter reminding us he told us so.
Bullets do not make it easier to remember what's being said.
Bullets create tension about what the next bullet is going to say, instead of actually communicating your idea. When we see a bullet, we check it off and stop paying attention until the next one appears.
Bullets are almost always misused. If you have a finite number of points, each of which supports the other, one can imagine that they help us fit the puzzle together. But that's now how they're used, are they? Most people use them the way I'm using them now, as a disorderly almost random list.
You've already forgotten the second bullet, haven't you? That's because bullets don't naturally map to the way we process and remember ideas.
If bullets are the official style of your organization, using them is a form of being invisible.
Without a doubt, bullets make it far easier to read your presentation to people in the room. For those with no time to practice or unable to say what's in their heart, bullets are perfect.

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duminică, 4 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Manufacturing PMI Contracts 4th Month, Employment Down 6th Month

Posted: 04 May 2014 09:35 PM PDT

The HSBC China Purchasing Managers' Index™ shows China Manufacturing PMI Contracts 4th Month.

Key Points

Output and new orders contract at slower rates
Staff numbers are cut for the sixth month in a row
Solid reduction in both input and output prices

Chinese manufacturers signalled a further deterioration in overall operating conditions during April. Both output and total new work declined over the month, albeit at weaker rates than those recorded in March. Fewer new orders led firms to cut their staffing levels at a modest pace, while purchasing activity fell for the third successive month. Meanwhile, both input costs and output charges fell markedly.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted at 48.1 in April, down fractionally from the earlier flash reading of 48.3, and up from 48.0 in March.

This signalled the fourth successive monthly deterioration in the health of the sector. Production at Chinese manufacturers fell for the third consecutive month in April, though at a weaker pace than in March.

Weaker client demand was attributed by a number of survey respondents to deteriorating market conditions. Goods producers in China cut their staffing levels for the sixth month running in April, amid reports of company down-sizing policies which stemmed from lower production requirements. Moreover, the rate of job shedding accelerated from the previous month. Despite reduced workforce numbers, volumes of unfinished work fell for the third successive month in April. That said, the rate of backlog depletion was marginal.

China Manufacturing PMI 2004-Present

Note that China manufacturing has spent more time in contraction than expansion since Mid-2011. Those expecting China to lead a surge in global growth are mistaken.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Misrepresenting the Libertarian Position on Putin

Posted: 04 May 2014 11:34 AM PDT

Despite the complete failure of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, war-mongers and even self-proclaimed libertarians don't understand what is going on in the Ukraine, why it's none of our business, or even how the civil war in Ukraine started.

A friend sent me an article today from the site Conservatives for Liberty called Confused libertarians are Supporting Putin by Gabrielė Stakaitytė.

Supposedly the site is an "independent libertarian, free market and socially liberal campaign group".

It is difficult to judge a site on the basis of one article, but there is a difference between supporting Putin and saying Ukraine is essentially none of our business, the true libertarian position.

According to Gabrielė "From soap operas to ballet performances, the Russian government is doing everything to influence the cultural life of Eastern Europe, and to maintain a stranglehold on the mentality of the people."

Let's assume that is true. Here is an equally true statement "From soap operas to ballet performances, the EU is doing everything to influence the cultural life of all of Europe, and to maintain a stranglehold on the mentality of the people."

Here's another "The US is doing everything to everyone globally, and by military force where necessary, to maintain a hypocritical stranglehold on any country that dares go against the vision of the United States."

One can come up with all sorts of similar statements.

Just what did warmongers expect when the US broke promises and expanded NATO to the East? Did they expect Russia would sit back and do nothing? Did they want to start WW III?

The US fomented the overthrow of the last Ukrainian government and now does not like the result. Similarly, no one in their right mind is happy about the overthrow of the Shah of Iran decades ago, the lives lost in Vietnam, and the results of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Back to the point. This is not our battle. If those in Crimea want to join Russia, no one should care.

Gabrielė blasts the vote in Crimea.Was it rigged? Let's assume it was. Was it rigged to the point that an honest vote would have led to a different result. No it wasn't.

Gabrielė says "Another example of confused libertarians supporting Putin is calling the new Ukrainian government illegitimate, or even fascist, whatever that is supposed to mean. The Ukrainian government is no less legitimate than the first US government, having come to power after a popular revolution."

Good grief. Look at the irony! If the current Ukrainian government is no less legitimate than the first US government, one can say the exact same thing about Crimea!

By implication, if Gabrielė likes the result, the action is OK, if she doesn't, then it's not. That is essentially the hypocrisy of the US position in a nutshell.

I do not believe many libertarians are cheering Putin per se. Perhaps one can find a few self-proclaimed libertarians openly cheering Putin, but people can claim to be whatever they want, and to the point of blatant hypocrisy, Gabrielė does just that.

Finally, please note that Gabrielė offered no links or even quotes to support her claim. She asserts "confused libertarians support Putin". Can we have some examples please, something more than allegations?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : When is Mother's Day?

When is Mother's Day?

It's sort of a silly question. After all, you and your mom can celebrate it whenever you want, not when everyone else tells you to.

My mom never liked it very much. She told us it was a silly commercial exercise. On the other hand, any excuse to express gratitude is a good one.

I published Sarah's book in memory of my mom. I figured today was a good day to remind you of it.

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Seth's Blog : Origin stories

Origin stories

The Grateful Dead had their breakthrough at Ken Kesey's acid test parties.

Superman was raised by George and Martha Kent.

Hewlett Packard started in a garage.

We hear origin stories all the time. They're magnetic enough that we write books and make movies about them.

Here's the thing: The only thing they have in common is that they are all different.

You can't reverse engineer success by researching origin stories. You can't follow the same path as those you admire and expect you'll end up in the same place.

Everything worthwhile has an origin, but those origins aren't the reason that they are worthwhile.

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sâmbătă, 3 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Civil War in Ukraine (But Please Don't Call it That!)

Posted: 03 May 2014 10:46 AM PDT

A civil war is underway in Ukraine. Curiously, no one has labeled it as such even though the Ukrainian government launched an offensive, helicopters were shot down, dozens were killed in the process, and military operations took place in multiple cities.

Two Ukrainian government helicopters were shot down and six people reported to have been killed on Friday morning as state forces launched a military offensive in Slavyansk, the eastern separatist-held city where armed pro-Russia militia fighters are holding several people hostage.

A spokesman for Russian president Vladimir Putin described the offensive as a "punitive operation", raising the stakes in Ukraine's confrontation with pro-Russia rebels and Moscow, after a week that has seen separatists seize control of more government, police and judicial buildings in the country's east.

Punitive Operation

Let's not call it a war, let's call it a a "punitive operation".

"While Russia is making an effort to de-escalate and resolve the conflict, the Kiev regime has ordered combat aircraft to fire at civilian towns and villages, launching a punitive operation and effectively destroying all hope for the viability of the Geneva agreements," said Dmitry Peskov, in remarks quoted by the Interfax news agency.

Anti-Terrorist Operation

Later in the day, Kiev labeled the non-war war an "anti-terrorist operation" complete with the following promise: "Ukraine's leadership is ready to grant amnesty to all . . . that did not commit capital crimes"

Warnings of "War"

Today, the non-war talk turned even more serious and dozens were killed. Bloomberg reports Ukraine Presses Assault on Rebels With Warning of 'War'

Ukrainian forces pressed their assault on separatists today and the head of the anti-terrorist center warned eastern regions are "essentially" at war, even as OSCE hostages were released.

The Ukrainian anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk region left five dead and 12 wounded, said the center's chief, Vasyl Krutov. Government forces secured Slovyansk as operations in Kramatorsk continued, he said. Another 42 people were killed and 125 were injured in a building fire and street battle in Odessa that began last night when pro-Russians attacked marching football fans and a pro-Ukrainian rally.

"What is happening in the east is not a short-term action, this is essentially a war," Krutov said today.

Open clashes are sweeping Ukraine's east, from Donetsk near the Russian border to Odessa, about 100 miles from the European Union's southeastern frontier in Romania, amid signs the industrial and coastal regions are slipping out of the Kiev government's control.

"We, Ukrainians, are now constantly pushed into confrontation, into civil conflicts and to ruination of the country from inside," said acting President Oleksandr Turchynov on his website today. "We cannot allow this to happen and have to be united in our fight with a foreign enemy who wants to destroy Ukraine."

Kerry Warning

"It's important for Russia to withdraw support from the separatists and to assist in removing people from the buildings and begin to deescalate the situation," Kerry said in remarks to the press in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.

In his own website statement following the conversation, Lavrov said he warned Kerry about a "fratricidal conflict" brewing in Ukraine. He also urged the U.S. to get Ukraine to stop the offensive in the eastern regions.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a briefing today in Jezioro, Poland, that officials are "losing hope" about a diplomatic solution to end the crisis.

"This is a war of maybe a different kind, it is a war that's undeclared," Tusk was quoted as saying by PAP newswire at a media briefing. "But what we're really dealing with is de-facto a war. You can clearly see that actions taken by the international community haven't brought results."

What Is It?

It's not a civil war it's a ...

Punitive operation
Anti-terrorist operation
Warning of war
Civil conflict
Desperate situation
Confrontation
Fratricidal conflict
Offensive
War of a different kind
De-facto war

You can call it whatever you want, but please don't call it what it is: a civil war.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

See What It Takes To Keep Facebook Up And Running

Posted: 02 May 2014 07:42 PM PDT

Facebook is an absolutely massive website. Every single day billions of people visit Facebook to get their social media fix and it takes a lot to keep the site up and running. Get an inside look at some of the equipment that keeps Facebook going.