luni, 9 martie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Strange Services You Won't Believe People Pay For

Posted: 09 Mar 2015 03:25 PM PDT


















19 Scary Photos That Are Completely Real

Posted: 09 Mar 2015 02:16 PM PDT

These pictures are real and they're scarier than anything you're ever going to see in a horror movie.





















What “America's Next Top Model” Winners Look Like Now

Posted: 09 Mar 2015 11:23 AM PDT

Have you ever wondered what the winners of America's Next Top Model" are up to? You're about to find out.






















Grow Your Own SEOs: Professional Development for Digital Marketers - Moz Blog


Grow Your Own SEOs: Professional Development for Digital Marketers

Posted on: Monday 09 March 2015 — 01:15

Posted by RuthBurrReedy

Finding your next SEO hire is hard, but it's only half the battle. Growing a team isn't just about hiring—it's about making your whole team, newbies and experts alike, better marketers.

It's almost impossible to build a one-size-fits-all training program for digital marketers, since the tasks involved will depend a lot on the role. Even "SEO" can mean a lot of different things. Your role might be highly technical, highly creative, or a mix of both. Tactics like local SEO or conversion rate optimization might be a huge part of an SEO's job or might be handled by another person entirely. Sometimes an SEO role includes elements like social media or paid search. The skills you teach your trainees will depend on what you need them to do, and more specifically, what you need them to do right now.

Whatever the specifics of the marketing role, you need to make sure you're providing a growth plan for your digital marketers (this goes for your more experienced team members, as well as your newbies). A professional growth plan helps you and your team members:

  • Track whether or not they're making progress in their roles. Taking on a new skill set can be daunting. Having a growth plan can alleviate some of the stress less-experienced employees may feel when learning a new skill, and makes sure more experienced employees aren't stagnating. 
  • Spot problem areas. Everyone's talents are different, but you don't want someone to miss out on growth opportunities because they're such a superstar in one area and are neglecting everything else. 
  • Have conversations around promotions and raises. Consistently tracking people's development across a variety of skill sets allows you to compare where someone is now to where they were when you hired them; it also gives you a framework to discuss what additional steps might be needed before a promotion or raise is in order, and help them develop a plan to get there. 
  • Advance their careers. One of your duties as their manager is to make sure you're giving them what they need to continue on their career path. A professional development plan should be managed with career goals in mind. 
  • Increase employee retention. Smart people like to learn and grow, and if you're not providing them ways to do so, they're not going to stick around.

We have technical/on-page SEOs, content marketers, local SEOs and marketing copywriters all working together on the same team at BigWing. We wanted to create a framework for professional development that we could apply to the whole team, so we identified a set of areas that any digital marketer should be growing in, regardless of their focus. This growth plan is part of everyone's mid-year and year-end reviews.

Here's what it looks like:

Growth areas for digital marketers

Want your own copy of the Professional Advancement Sheet? Get it here!

Tactical -> strategic

At the beginner level, team members are still learning the basic concepts and tasks associated with their role, and how those translate to the client metrics they're being measured on. It takes time to encounter and fix enough different kinds of things to know "in x situation, look at a, b and c and then try y or z."

As someone grows in their role, they will learn more advanced tactics. They should also be more and more able to use critical thinking to figure out how to solve problems and tackle longer-term client goals and projects. At the senior level, an SEO should be building long-term strategies and be comfortable with unusual campaigns and one-off projects.

Small clients -> big clients

There are plenty of small brochure websites in the world, and these sites are a great testing ground for the fundamentals of SEO: they may still have weird jacked-up problems (so many websites do), but they are a manageable size and don't usually have the potential for esoteric technical issues that large, complex sites do. Once someone has a handle on SEO, you can start assigning bigger and badder sites and projects (with plenty of mentoring from more experienced team members—more on that later).

We thought about making this one "Easy clients -> difficult clients," because there's another dimension to this line of progress: increasingly complex client relationships. Clients with very large or complicated websites (or clients with more than one website) are likely to have higher budgets, bigger internal staff, and more stakeholders. As the number of people involved increases, so does the potential for friction, so a senior-level SEO should be able to handle those complex relationships with aplomb.

Learning -> teaching

At the beginner level, people are learning digital marketing in general and learning about our specific internal processes. As they gain experience, they become a resource for team members still in the "learning" phase, and at the senior level they should be a go-to for tough questions and expert opinions.

Even a beginner digital marketer may have other things to teach the team; skills learned from previous careers, hobbies or side gigs can be valuable additions. For example, we had a brand-new team member with a lot of experience in photography, a valuable skill for content marketers; she was able to start teaching her teammates more about taking good photos while still learning other content marketing fundamentals herself.

learning

I love this stock picture because the chalkboard just says "learning." Photo via Pixabay.

Since managers can't be everywhere at once, more experienced employees must take an active role in teaching. It's not enough that they be experts (which is why this scale doesn't go from "Learning" to "Mastering"); they have to be able to impart that expertise to others. Teaching is more than just being available when people have questions, too: senior team members are expected to be proactive about taking the time to show junior team members the ropes.

Prescribed -> creative

The ability to move from executing a set series of tasks to creating creative, heavily client-focused digital marketing campaigns is, in my opinion, one of the best predictors of long-term SEO success. When someone is just starting out in SEO, it's appropriate to have a fairly standard set of tasks they're carrying out. For a lot of those small sites that SEO trainees start on, that set of SEO fundamentals goes a long way. The challenge comes when the basics aren't enough.

Creative SEO comes from being able to look at a client's business, not just their website, and tailor a strategy to their specific needs. Creative SEOs are looking for unique solutions to the unique problems that arise from that particular client's combination of business model, target market, history and revenue goals. Creativity can also be put to work internally, in the form of suggested process improvements and new revenue-driving projects.

General -> T-shaped

The concept of the T-shaped marketer has been around for a few years (if you're not familiar with the idea, you can read up on it on Rand's blog or the Distilled blog). Basically, it means that in addition to deep knowledge whatever area(s) of inbound marketing we specialize in, digital marketers should also work to develop basic knowledge of a broad set of marketing disciplines, in order to understand more about the craft of marketing as a whole.

t-shaped marketer

Source: The T-Shaped Marketer

A digital marketer who's just starting out will naturally be focusing more on the broad part of their T, getting their head around the basic concepts and techniques that make up the digital marketing skill set. Eventually most people naturally find a few specialty areas that they're really passionate about. Encouraging employees to build deep expertise ultimately results in a whole team full of subject matter experts in a whole team's worth of subjects.

Beginner -> expert

This one is pretty self-explanatory. The important thing to note is that expertise isn't something that just happens to you after you do something a lot (although that's definitely part of it). Honing expertise means actively pursuing new learning opportunities and testing new ideas and tactics, and we look for the pursuit of expertise as part of evaluating someone's professional growth.

Observing -> leading

Anyone who is working in inbound marketing should be consistently observing the industry—they should be following search engine news, reading blog posts from industry experts, and attending events and webinars to learn more about their craft. It's a must-do at all levels, and even someone who's still learning the ropes can be keeping an eye on industry buzz and sharing items of interest with their co-workers.

Not everyone is crazy about the phrase "thought leadership." When you're a digital marketing agency, though, your people are your product—their depth of knowledge and quality of work is a big part of what you're selling. As your team gains experience and confidence, it's appropriate to expect them to start participating more in the digital marketing space, both online and in person. This participation could look like: 

  • Pitching and speaking at marketing conferences 
  • Contributing to blogs, whether on your site or in other marketing communities 
  • Organizing local tech meetups 
  • Regularly participating in online events like #seochat

...or a variety of other activities, depending on the individual's talents and interests. Not only does this kind of thought-leadership activity promote your agency brand, it also helps your employees build their personal brands—and don't forget, a professional development plan needs to be as much about helping your people grow in their careers as it is about growing the skill sets you need.

Low output -> high output

I love the idea of meticulous, hand-crafted SEO, but let's be real: life at an agency means getting stuff done. When people are learning to do stuff, it takes them longer to do (which is BY FAR MY LEAST FAVORITE PART OF LEARNING TO DO THINGS, I HATE IT SO MUCH), so expectations of the number of clients/volume of work they can handle should scale appropriately. It's okay for people to work at their own pace and in their own way, but at some point you need to be able to rely on your team to turn things around quickly, handle urgent requests, and consistently hit deadlines, or you're going to lose customers.

You may notice that some of these growth areas overlap, and that's okay—the idea is to create a nuanced approach that captures all the different ways a digital marketer can move toward excellence.

Like with all other aspects of a performance review, it's important to be as specific as possible when discussing a professional growth plan. If there's an area a member of your team needs to make more progress in, don't just say e.g. "You need to be more strategic." Come up with specific projects and milestones for your marketer to hit so you're both clear on when they're growing and what they need to do to get to the next level.


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Seth's Blog : More trouble than it's worth

More trouble than it's worth

In five words, that's one secret to delight. When you do the work that others can't possibly imagine doing, you set yourself apart.

Seeking out the things that are more trouble than most people think they're worth is a powerful place to be.

The hard part, of course, is actually doing something that appears to be far more trouble than it's worth.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Driverless Cars in 30 US cities; Death of Cars? Convenience vs. Cost; Comfortable Predictions

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 11:49 PM PDT

I remain amused at skepticism towards driverless cars and trucks. Most believe the idea is at least a decade off. Some think it will not happen in a significant way at all.

My position has been and remains, driverless vehicles will be widespread before the end of this decade.

Please consider Self-Driving Cars Will Be in 30 U.S. Cities by the End of Next Year.
Automated vehicle pilot projects will roll out in the U.K. and in six to 10 U.S. cities this year, with the first unveiling projected to be in Tampa, Fla. as soon as late spring. The following year, trial programs will launch in 12 to 20 more U.S. locations, which means driverless cars will be on roads in up to 30 U.S. cities by the end of 2016. The trials will be run by Comet LLC, a consulting firm focused on automated vehicle commercialization.

"We're looking at college campuses, theme parks, airports, downtown areas—places like that," Corey Clothier, a strategist for automated transportation systems who runs the firm told, The New York Observer.

He explained that they're focusing on semi-controlled areas and that the driverless vehicles will serve a number of different purposes, both public and private. The vehicles themselves, which are all developed by Veeo Systems, will even vary from two-seaters to full-size buses that can transport 70 people. At some locations, the vehicles will drive on their own paths, occasionally crossing vehicle and pedestrian traffic, while at others, the vehicles will be completely integrated with existing cars.
Death of Cars?

If you think this will stop with college campuses, theme parks, and airports, then you probably believed the need for keypunch operators would not go away, that autofocus cameras would never be reliable, that the internet would not make mincemeat out of many travel agencies, and digital would not replace film.

I would not go as far as to say this is the death of cars. Rather, this is the beginning of the end of personal car ownership for millions of city drivers.

But, it is also the eventual (and sooner than you think) death of long-haul trucking jobs, taxi drivers, and various chauffeur jobs.

Question of Timeframe

I have heard countless arguments many times over about lawsuits, about inner-city traffic jams, about ice and snow, about computer malfunctions, about road work and changing rood conditions, and about everything else including motherhood and apple pie.

I dismiss all those arguments just as I dismissed arguments that digital would not replace film. The only debate is how fast this happens.

Programmed cars can handle adverse road conditions better than all but the most skilled drivers, and certainly far better than those not used to driving in snow and ice. Liability issues will likely be settled by legislation in advance. An internet connected car can certainly pick alternate routes better than non-connected humans.

In 2006, had I said we would have driverless cars on the highways in 10 years in thirty cities you might have thought I was crazy. Well here we are. It's just test-mode now, but test mode will not last long. The pace of improvement is guaranteed to happen in one direction only - faster.

Will test to approval take more than 10 years? Five? Three? Will trucks and cabs lead, or follow?

Comfortable Predictions

I believe most long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in ten years. Gone in five or six would not surprise me. The shorter timeframe would require a pretty fast ramp in truck hubs, assuming my truck hub model is the correct one, and it may not be. If the truck hubs I envision as necessary are not needed, then expect the jobs to vanish faster.

Taxi drivers? Who need em? They will be gone in 5-6 years, in many places.

Cost vs. Convenience

I will cling to my car. And so will millions of others, at first. That's why the death of cars will not happen as fast as the death of paid driver positions.

Yet, millions of aging boomers with diminishing eyesight, slower reaction times, and poor night vision will welcome driverless taxis on demand. So will millenials and many inner-city drivers who never leave the city.

The cost of a car is high. But the convenience of having a car outweighs that cost for now, for most.


Ultimately it is convenience of having a car in your garage vs. the cost of having that car that will decide how quickly private car ownership goes away.

Convenience is also a two-way street. How many moms would love the convenience of not having to take their kids to and from soccer games or music lessons several times a week?

Pent-Up Demand to Dump Cars

Cars will be around for quite a long time. It's ownership of the cars, and how many there are, and who will drive them (if anyone), that are in question.

Economists see a pent-up demand for millennials to buy cars. I see a pent-up demand for boomers to get rid of them. Demographics, technology, and changing social attitudes suggest I am on the right side of this debate.

For more on driverless vehicles, please see ....

The heyday of car ownership is in its twilight years. The paid driving jobs will vanish much sooner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Warmongers United: Juncker Requests Creation of EU Army; Peace by War

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 04:54 PM PDT

Warmongers United

European discussion of Russia has gone from dumb to dumber.

Of course, the highly regarded "Warmongers United Think Tank" (WUTT) would dispute that. "Warmongers United" believes more armies, more missiles and more fighting are precisely the right thing to do.

What? Haven't heard of WUTT?

The think tank consists of a various collection of folks itching for a war with Russia, Iran, and Syria, preferably all at once. True believers want to include China in that group.

In general, WUTT wants to set the world right (just as they insisted a war with Iraq, Vietnam and other places would set the world right).

John McCain is the official spokesman for Warmongers United in the US. Jean-Claude Juncker assumed that role today for Europe. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush both hope to assume global leadership in 2016.

Juncker Requests Creation of EU Army

Please consider Jean-Claude Juncker Calls for Creation of EU Army.
The president of the European Commission has called for the creation of an EU army in order to show Russia "that we are serious about defending European values".

In an interview with German newspaper Die Welt, Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the EU's executive arm, said an EU army would let the continent "react credibly to threats to peace in a member state or a neighbour of the EU".

In an interview with German radio on Sunday, Ursula von der Leyen, Germany's defence minister, also spoke in favour of a European army, pointing out that a brigade of Dutch soldiers was already under German command.

"I think that in the Bundeswehr we would also be prepared, in certain circumstances, to put units under the control of another nation," she told Deutschlandfunk. "This interweaving of armies, with the perspective of one day having a European Army, is, in my opinion, the future."

Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg, whose army consists of 900 professional soldiers, has long argued for the establishment of an EU force, making it part of his foreign policy plan during the selection process for the presidency of the commission in 2014. British prime minister David Cameron argued against his appointment, claiming that Mr Juncker was too much of a federalist for the position.

Mr Cameron has repeatedly reassured eurosceptic MPs in his own party that Britain would "never support" any form of EU army. Responding to Mr Juncker's comments on Sunday, a government spokeswoman said: "Our position is crystal clear that defence is a national, not an EU responsibility and that there is no prospect of that position changing and no prospect of a European army."

Some MEPs defended the idea, arguing that such an army should be controlled by the European Parliament.

"I support Juncker in building an EU army if it means the termination of all EU member states' armies and is controlled by the European Parliament," tweeted Jan Philipp Albrecht, a German Green MEP.

But eurosceptic parties criticised the suggestion. Mike Hookem, a defence spokesman for the anti-EU UK Independence party, said: "A European army would be a tragedy for the UK. We have all seen the utter mess the EU has made of the eurozone economy, so how can we even think of trusting them with this island's defence."

Nato was not a sufficient protection for the EU as not all EU members are part of the alliance, according to Mr Juncker.
Defend Values by Warmongering

There is nothing better than warmongering to defend "European values". After all, war is the European way!

NATO Insufficient

If NATO is insufficient, how about a call to disband it?

The answer is less warmongering is never acceptable.

We need US forces, coupled with NATO forces, coupled with regional forces, coupled with European national forces, and coupled with other national forces in Asia, primarily Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

There can never be  too many military alliances. Thus, when it comes to Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, the world needs a JANZ alliance, an NZA alliance, a JA alliance, and a JNZ alliance. The more the better.

Of course, each alliance group needs its own set of tanks, missiles, guns and troops.

Need for Enemies

If there are no hostile countries in an alliance area, then its axiomatic to invent some or create some. Let's not forget the need to hold parades right on the borders of hostile countries, even peaceful countries.

History suggests that making new enemies is quite easy.

Still struggling? Note that Japan is a fantastic addition to any alliance because of its long-standing feud with China. Forge an alliance with Japan and you have the built-in (and very welcome) enemy of China.

War Pays for Itself

The only possible concern right now is how to pay for this. Such concerns are ridiculous. Printing money is the easy answer.

We need to take advantage of this fine opportunity for more war while we can!

Of course every sensible person on the planet realizes that war pays for itself.  Iraq, Vietnam, Ukraine, and Afghanistan are perfect examples.

Growth Prospects

War is the one global growth industry that remains.

A simultaneous war with Iran, Iraq, China, and Russia is just what the world needs for growth.

Want jobs? Then join Warmongers United today! Demand more wars. Insist on the real thing, not simulations.

Peace by War

Previous US foreign policy "successes" in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Vietnam and other places without a doubt shows that more warmongering is the only way to peace. "Slight failures" in some places only proves one thing: We did not wage enough war! 

Should Russia retaliate with nuclear weapons, fear not. We can blow them up 10 times over while they can only blow us up 3 times over.

Besides, it's self-evident that either nuclear war or perpetual war is a "small price to pay" to achieve global peace. Curiously, the only way to achieve permanent peace is to have permanent war.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

70s Have Returned

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 03:17 PM PDT

Contrary to popular belief the 1970s have returned. I can prove that statement in pictures.

First, let's take a look at a few ways the 70s have not returned.

10-Year Treasury Rate



In the mid-70s the 10-year treasury rate was 8.4% on the way to 15.32% in September of 1981. Today, we see a very un-70s-like rate of 2.24%.

CPI All Urban Consumers - Change from Year Ago



CPI All Urban Consumers -  Percent Change from Year Ago



We did not see much CPI action that looked like this in the 1970s. Please note both of the above CPI measures are negative compared to a year ago.

Manufacturing Employment



Manufacturing employment was close to 19 million in late 1973 and early 1974. It peaked near 20 million in 1979. Manufacturing employment is now about 12.3 million.

Nothing Like the 70s

Closer scrutiny shows none of the following is anything like the 70s.

  1. Price trends
  2. Employment
  3. Interest rates
  4. Union membership
  5. Number of pension plans in trouble
  6. Number of city bankruptcies
  7. Robots
  8. Phone usage
  9. Internet
  10. Demographics

70s Return

I did find one set of images however, taken yesterday, that are very 70s-like.

Liz and Mish



Heidi



Heidi is a karaoke host at two local places we frequent: The T-Bar on Roberts Road in Island Lake on Saturdays and the Riverside Pub on IL-176 in Burtons Bridge on Friday.

Heidi sponsored a 70s only songfest last Friday. Thought I would share some 70s flashback silliness taken with someone's cell phone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 8 martie 2015

Seth's Blog : Job creation/job destruction

Job creation/job destruction

For years before 1992, experts warned that the fisheries in Eastern Canada were in peril. Industrialized fishing processes (sonar, trawlers, etc.) were pulling dramatically more cod out of the Atlantic, and the fishery was severely threatened.

Insiders ignored the warnings, shouting about job preservation instead. 35,000 workers were directly involved, with more than 100,000 people supported as a result to the fishing trade. Jobs needed to be defended.

In 1992, the catch dropped 99%. Every single job was lost, because the entire system collapsed.

It's easy to defend the status quo, except when the very foundation you've built everything on disappears. Incrementalism ceases to be a good strategy when there's a cliff on the route.

       

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sâmbătă, 7 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Advice for College Grads: 16 Tips For Those Who Land a Job, 8 Tips for Those Who Don't

Posted: 07 Mar 2015 04:14 PM PST

I was asked by a career placement organization if I had any advice for college graduates that I could share.

Specifically, I was asked "If you were going to give career advice to a fresh college graduate based on your experiences what would it be? Would it be to settle for nothing less than something they are passionate about? Would you tell them to not put too much stock into their first job? Would you tell them to put as much money into their savings as possible?"

I look at this two ways: Advice for those who landed a job and advice for those who didn't.

Grads who land a job should also take a look at the second set of tips. It's easy to find yourself out of a job for any number of reasons.

16 Tips For Those Who Land a Job

  1. Live below your means.
  2. Pay down student debts as fast as you can.
  3. Build a cash cushion in case you lose your job. Ideally, you need one full year's salary, in the bank, in cash, for emergencies, not for trips to Aruba. Six months is a minimum.
  4. Think about bills before you move out on your own.
  5. Consider sharing an apartment with someone to cut expenses.
  6. Consider living with your parents for a while.
  7. Don't buy a new car.
  8. If you buy any car, make sure you understand what insurance, gas, and maintenance will cost
  9. Don't have kids right away, if at all. If you have kids, then understand the commitment in time and money, and be prepared for both. If you have kids, that cash cushion mentioned in point three is even more important.
  10. Don't purchase a house or condo even if your job pays well. Housing is back in a bubble in many areas. Condos are especially hard to sell. Besides, you may decide you do not like your first job and want to move. Take your time. It's easier to find a house you like than get rid of one you don't.
  11. If your job has a company matching investment plan, take advantage, but keep the money in cash or guaranteed funds if offered. Assets are way over-priced here. Wait for a huge dip in the stock market to invest. Recent grads have plenty enough time to dollar cost average. Early mistakes will not cost much. However, it's important to think about valuations, safety, bubbles and other factors as a process now rather than taking the attitude it doesn't matter much now. It will matter eventually, and the quicker one starts thinking about such things, the better off they will be down the road.
  12. Don't think you are special because you show up on time and put in eight hours. Those are a given. Depending on the company you work for, work-life balance may come later or perhaps not all. Few companies are remotely close to Google. Go above and beyond what's expected, every day, without complaint. A strong work ethic is one of the few ways one can stand out and get promotions and raises.
  13. If you took a job you are not passionate about, be grateful you have a job. Keep looking, but don't quit. It's easier to find a job if you have a job.
  14. If you are with a big company and don't like your initial assignment, opportunities can arise in other areas. Talk to personnel after you have been there a while. Give your first assignment a fair chance.
  15. Evaluate your job four ways: Do you like what you are doing? Do you like who you work with? Do you like your boss? Are you happy with your pay?
  16. If the answer to all four questions in point 13 are no, you are in the wrong place for sure. Sometimes one can be so bad you want out. If pay alone is the problem, then please self-assess your skills and what others in your field make. If your boss alone is the problem then talk to your boss or bring up the problem with personnel.

8 Tips For Those Who Don't Land a Job

  1. Purchasing new cars, buying houses or condos, or starting a family are out of the question unless somehow you are independently wealthy or have a spouse that picks up the slack.
  2. Don't go to grad school thinking it will help you land a good job. Most likely, and especially if you are in a low demand field, all you will do is pile on debt.
  3. Be realistic about your job prospects. If you got a degree in history, art, English literature or any other low demand field, face the facts: your job prospects are not that good. You may have to take any job in retail (or elsewhere) that you can find. You may be passionate about art, but don't expect museums to come running to you.
  4. Have a friend interview you and give you honest feedback. If your speech skills are not good, then you better improve them.
  5. Have someone critique your resume. Don't ever lie about your skills, grades, experience, or anything else. The interviewer may figure it out. And if you are hired, it's grounds for immediate dismissal, even if they like you. I have seen it.
  6. What about your appearance? Do you dress properly for interviews?
  7. When you land an interview, find out everything you can about the company. It is imperative to not only understand what the company does, but to also formulate at least one intelligent question about their business that you don't know. Examples: Have you thought about ....? Why do you ....? Why don't you ...? What areas do you seek to expand?
  8. Self-assess. Do you have other issues? Employers are not supposed to take looks and health issues into consideration, but if you are extremely obese, your odds of landing a job are much worse than if you are physically fit.

Good Luck Grads!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rush to Judgment Part II: Media Myths Shattered; Whodunit? Four Arrested

Posted: 07 Mar 2015 12:35 PM PST

Whodunit?

It appears my post yesterday challenging conventional wisdom of "whodunit" was fortuitously timed. (See Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting). No doubt the anti-Putin conspiracy crowd will start suspecting I was in on it all along.

Please consider Two Suspects Held Over Murder of Kremlin Critic Nemtsov.
Two suspects have been detained over the killing of Boris Nemtsov, Russian officials said, a week after he was shot dead near the Kremlin in the most high-profile killing of an opposition figure in years.

The Investigative Committee, the state body leading the investigation, named the two men as Anzor Gubashev and Zaur Dadayev.

"The individuals detained are, according to our investigation, involved in the organization and execution of the killing of Boris Nemtsov," the committee said in a statement.

Russian state-controlled media reported the two were from the Caucasus, a violent and impoverished region on Russia's southern flank. They were expected to be formally arrested at a court hearing in Moscow on Sunday, the reports said.

"I want to believe that these ones are really the ones who conducted (the killing) and that once in a while law enforcement worked professionally and detained real assassins, and did not make a mistake," Ilya Yashin, the co-chairman of Nemtsov's party, said of the two suspects.

"The key task for investigators is to find and prosecute the ones who ordered this murder. If everything ends with the detention of scapegoats, irrespective of whether they are the real assassins or not, the practice of political assassinations will continue with no doubt."

Yashin and other associates of Nemtsov said that until Saturday they had never heard of the two men detained.

Nemtsov was a liberal who had served as deputy prime minister in the 1990s and later became a staunch critic of Putin. He was shot within sight of the Kremlin walls as he walked home from a cafe.

It was the most high-profile killing of an opposition figure in Putin's 15-year rule.

The killing caused shock among Russia's liberal opposition, but they draw their support only from the relatively small urban middle class. The vast majority of Russians back Putin. For them, Nemtsov was a marginal figure tainted by his role in government in the chaotic 1990s.

SCRIBBLED NOTE

Nemtsov's closest aide told Reuters that the day before his death he clandestinely scribbled a note to her about how he was investigating the involvement of Russia's military in fighting in east Ukraine.

No one has produced any direct evidence the Kremlin had anything to do with Nemtsov's killing.

People from the Caucasus have been named as suspects in other assassinations, including those of Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist critical of the Kremlin, in 2006 and of Paul Klebnikov, a U.S. citizen and journalist with the Russian edition of Forbes magazine, in 2004.

Politkovskaya's supporters say the Chechens sentenced for her killing were low-level foot soldiers, and that investigators failed to find out who was behind her murder.
Four Arrested

Although two were the trigger-men, four have now been arrested. KP.RU reports Two More Arrested. Details are scant.

Media Myths Shattered

Media Myth: Nemtsov was a well-liked, high-profile opposition leader.
Reality: The vast majority of Russians back Putin.

Media Myth: Putin had everything to gain by killing Nemtsov.
Reality: Nemtsov was a marginal figure tainted by his role in government in the chaotic 1990s. He was no threat to Putin. Indeed, Putin had everything to lose and nothing to gain by making a martyr out of Nemtsov.

Media Myth: (as originally reported). Putin shut off video cameras, and that makes Putin a prime suspect.
Reality: Cameras were operative and that helped track the killers.

Media Myth: Nemtsov's closest aide told Reuters that the day before his death he clandestinely scribbled a note to her about how he was investigating the involvement of Russia's military in fighting in east Ukraine.
Reality: Perhaps he scribbled a note. Who knows? More importantly, so what? Why Reuters made a big issue in with an all capitalized  subtitle is a mystery. It is well understood that Nemtsov sided with Kiev in the Ukraine civil war. The reality is that Nemtsov's position on the war marginalized him and his party.

Conspiracy Theory Number One

The Putin haters will believe this was all some massive, extremely well planned conspiracy in which the police were purposely late to investigate, that Putin ordered the hit because he needed to get rid of Nemtsov because Nemtsov had some huge news on the war in Ukraine.

Conspiracy Theory Number Two

Ukraine, in hyperinflation, having just lost many key battles in the Ukraine civil war, whose government came into power in suspicious means with no one arrested for the sniper attacks that started it all, is behind this mess, needing sympathy from the IMF and weapons from the US.

Conspiracy Theory Number Three

The CIA wants to destabilize Russia and paid for the hit.

Simple Theory One

Someone in Russia or Ukraine wanted to make a martyr out of Nemtsov.

Simple Theory Two

Men from a region of Russia known for taking out prominent political figures had some other grudge against Nemtsov

Assessing the Possibilities

The anti-Putin crowd will cling to conspiracy theory one, and the anti-US crowd to theory conspiracy number three.

I will be the first to admit any of the above five theories is possible. Degree of likelihood is in the eyes of the beholder, but Occam's Razor suggests simple theories over more complex ones.

Regardless, once again I conclude there is no need to rush to judgment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com