Central Perk

vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

MeasureFest 2015: what did we learn?

Posted: 26 Nov 2015 06:36 AM PST

Yesterday was MeasureFest’s inaugural edition from Brighton. Hosted in the city’s Corn Exchange, MeasureFest this time provided three distinct sessions; Attribution, Testing, and Measurement (which could also have been called ‘How to wrangle Google Analytics data into a better, prettier, and more comparative format’).

All in all, there was something there for everyone, but not everyone was likely to enjoy all of the sessions. Let’s take a look at the agenda for the day…

	Attribution
	Russell McAthy – Attribution You Don't Know What You Don't Know
	Harriet Checkley – Attribution 2.0
	Lewis Lenssen – Measuring The Marmite Media

	Testing
	Martijn Scheijbeler – Scaling Your Testing Program for Maximum Impact

	Connor Wilkinson – Creating a testing culture in Asda
	Tim Stewart – Roadmaps & Experiment Design – Just because you can, doesn't mean you should


	Measurement
	Neil Barnes – Turbo Charging Your Google Analytics Data
	Adam Englebright – Google Analytics Minus Google Analytics
	Elayne Phillips – Measuring Communications in Downing Street
	Nikki Rae – Segment or Die! – The underused Cliché

Given the breath of different marketing disciplines covered by the three sessions, it would be silly to try to cover each talk in the detail they require and deserve, so instead I’ve chosen some of the key discussion points of the day on which to ruminate.

#1 – Testing strategy

On of the points that stood out most from the talks at MeasureFest yesterday was in the strategy behind A/B and MV testing. There were widely different approaches mentioned across a number of talks and it certainly got me thinking….

The main discrepancy in the approaches seemed to be in whether a value judgement needs to be placed on any test before it happens, in order to determine what value the result of a test might possibly have.

On the other side of the coin was the approach of Dutch speaker Martijn Scheijbeler from The Next Web, whose approach seemed a lot more free and objective than those of his corporate red tape restrained fellow speakers. His approach, do everything fast and without any pre-judgement of its result or budgetary impact, was certainly a lot more exciting and the very definition of an agile testing environment.

Screen Shot 2015-11-26 at 11.33.26

That’s not to say his team aren’t aware of overall KPIs or goals, just that they don’t let red tape restrict them from the potential to find something unexpected.

The pace and breadth at which Martijn’s team in Amsterdam worked at testing impressed a lot of people in the Measurefest audience…

Screen Shot 2015-11-26 at 11.28.55

You can find Martijn’s slide deck from his talk (Scaling Your Testing Program for Maximum Impact) below. (Warning: contains coarse language!)

#2 – The (potential) impact of Adblocking

Lewis Lenssen, Rakuten’s Attribution’s Marketing Director was asked about the impact of Adblocking by a member of the audience after his talk. His main points were that many people use ad blockers because the ads they encounter slow down page loading.

Lewis highlighted that it was up to the advertising networks to find solutions to these issues. He also said the industry needs to be more transparent about the data it collects and how it is used in order to combat the increasing use of ad blockers.

Interestingly, just this week, news hit that Yahoo had banned US users from accessing their webmail if they had Adblockers installed. Yahoo confirmed the changes, which includes a pop-up box asking users to pause their ad-block software before they could access their inbox.

Some think this action is rather rich, coming from a company who admitted that adverts on its homepage had been infected with malware for four days last year. For more information on the arguments for and against, check out the video above from Mashable.

#3 – Simple GA solutions

Both Neil Barnes from Friday Media Group and Adam Englebright from Measurelab extolled the virtues of Google Sheets and its facilities to hook it up to GA to produce easy, digestible dashboards from standard GA data.

The emphasis was definitely on making the most of the free data we get from Google Analytics, and creating ways of viewing data from multiple domains side-by-side. There was also an acknowledgement that employing familiar Microsoft graphical elements, such as pie charts, line graphs and colour formatting makes dashboards easier for non-analysts and non-technical stakeholders to view and digest.

Key point: the power of hooking up Google Sheets and GA should not be overlooked. Scheduling capabilities provide a useful and simple way to get daily/weekly overviews. These are both free, and can be easily shared and accessed.

Adam Englebright’s slides can be seen here and Neil Barnes slides and templates can be found at online – we’ll share the link shortly.

So there are the points of discussion which stood out most for me at this year’s MeasureFest. As always, there were some great quality talks from some super experienced and savvy marketers. Let me know what stood out for you from this year’s event. What one thing that you heard would you take away and action this week?

The post MeasureFest 2015: what did we learn? appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : Unconscious consumption

Unconscious consumption

Black Friday, of course, is a con.

But it's also a symptom of a terrible trap we've set for ourselves.

Consider the joy a little kid has the first time he spends his own money to buy an ice cream cone. This isn't something he does every day, it's not something he has to do, it's not something he's trying to get over with. Instead, the entire process unrolls in slow motion. It's consumption, no doubt about it, the last step in a long industrial/agricultural/marketing system. But at least this last step is special beyond words.

Now, consider the mall. The mall, today.

For the three billion people on Earth who have never experienced air conditioning, window displays and the extraordinary safety and wealth that the mall represents, a trip to the mall is mindblowing. For the typical consumer, egged on by a media frenzy and harried by a completely invented agenda, today is nothing but a hassle.

All that time, all that money, all those emotions spent for not one good reason.

It's more about what you didn't get on sale, or how many more people you need to "cross off" or just how much shiny but useless stuff you can grab faster than the next person. A reversal of 100,000 years of not enough to a brief few decades of more, more, more.

Every person reading this today has access to more wealth than the last King of France did. An astounding array of choices, a bounty of available connections and emotions.

Don't let someone else scam you into being unhappy.

• Email to a friend •

joi, 26 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Majority in UK Now Favor Brexit; Cameron's Quandary

Posted: 26 Nov 2015 08:21 AM PST

Attitudes towards the EU have hardened in the wake of the ISIS attack on Paris. A new poll reveals Majority of UK Public Now Wants 'Brexit'.

More than half of the public now want to leave the European Union, according to an opinion poll for The Independent – the first time our monthly survey has shown a majority for "Brexit."

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, will be seen as a reflection of public anxiety about the EU's migration crisis.

Some 52 per cent of people say Britain should leave the EU, while 48 per cent want to remain.

When ORB asked the same question in June, July and September, a majority (55 per cent) wanted to stay and 45 per cent to quit on each occasion. Last month, amid widespread media coverage of the refugee crisis, the margin narrowed slightly to 53 per cent in favour of staying in, with 47 per cent wanting out.

The latest survey highlights a stark divide between the generations ahead of the in/out referendum to be held by the end of 2017. Some 69 per cent of 18-24 year-olds want to remain in the EU, while only 31 per cent want to leave. Support for EU membership declines steadily with age among older groups, with only 38 per cent of those aged 65 and over wanting to remain and 62 per cent in favour of leaving.

Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain.

The overall findings will worry pro-EU campaigners, who admit privately that the refugee crisis is shifting opinion against membership. There are also fears that the Out campaign, funded heavily by hedge funds opposed to EU regulation, enjoys a much bigger budget than the In brigade. "We will have less but are much more likely to spend it better," said one In camp insider, promising a professional effort than its rivals.

Cameron's Quandary

UK prime minister David Cameron really has his work cut out for him now. Just yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel Reaffirmed Her Open-Door Refugee Policy.

She is out of her mind of course, and that's going to give all of Europe a major headache, while making matters especially difficult for Cameron who pledged to work out an agreement with Merkel and French President Francois Hollande that the British could accept.

Hollande may be sympathetic on migration issues, but he will not be sympathetic about financial transaction taxes and London regulations.

Cross issues are now huge and more bickering will not help.

Will Cameron even be willing to put this all to a vote as promised? If polls remain in the Brexit category, I doubt it, unless he is politically forced to do so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

AddMoreTraffic - 2015 Black Friday Sale!

View Web Version | Unsubscribe from this list

2015 Black Friday! (25% OFF) Our website traffic packages will increase your traffic within days from your order. This is only available for a limited time.

	High Exposure Give your site the exposure it needs with high quality, targeted traffic. Our network of over 10,000 web properties can deliver millions of hits to your site.
	Targeted Traffic We can provide your site with extremely targeted traffic from regions and countries all over the world.
	Increase Sales So are you ready to start making more money from your website? Get started today and buy your traffic package from AddMoreTraffic.

	15 Million Visitors Daily		100% Human Traffic
	50 Million Impressions Daily		Fast Delivery
	Free Traffic Targeting		Secure Online Payments

CLICK TO GET STARTED

You receive this email since you have subscribed at http://www.submitstart.com/

View Web Version | Unsubscribe from this list

Seth's Blog : The vulnerability of 'thank you'

The vulnerability of 'thank you'

Thank you as in: I couldn't do it without you. As in: I don't want to do this alone. As in: I was afraid. And mostly: I would miss you if you were gone.

Thank you brings us closer together.

Thank you is a limb worth going out on.

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 25 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

On the Verge of Consumer Exhaustion
Personal Income and Outlays: Income Hits Estimates, Spending Disappoints; Optimism Reins Supreme
Black and Blue Friday Coming Up

On the Verge of Consumer Exhaustion

Posted: 25 Nov 2015 12:25 PM PST

Fourth Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 1.8%

Following today's personal income report in which consumer spending rose only 0.1% month-over-month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter declined by 0.5 percent to 1.8 percent.

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on November 25, down from 2.3 percent on November 18. The forecast for the fourth-quarter rate of real consumer spending declined from 3.1 percent to 2.2 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis."

The latest Blue-Chip forecast for early November was 2.7%, a highly unlikely number at this stage unless season spending picks up big time.

Reports show stores are not discounting merchandise as much as consumers like, and consumers generally expect to spend less, so odds of a hefty jump in Christmas sales is questionable.

We may know more next week when reports on Black and Blue Friday become available.

4th Quarter GDP Trends

Consumer Exhaustion

The initial 4th quarter GDPNow forecast started at 2.5% on October 30. It rose as high as 2.9% following the auto sales and jobs reports. It's pretty much been downhill since then.

Wholesale trade, retail trade, existing home sales, all knocked off points.

Today's Personal Incomes and Outlays Report knocked off a half percentage point even though wage growth was substantial.

Many signs point to consumer exhaustion.

Back-to-school spending was weak, housing starts have been weak, existing home sales are weak, manufacturing has been weak, recent spending reports have been weak, and Christmas sales appear "tepid" at this point.

Auto sales have been the one consistently bright spot, in this otherwise treading water economy, but what cannot go on forever, won't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Personal Income and Outlays: Income Hits Estimates, Spending Disappoints; Optimism Reins Supreme

Posted: 25 Nov 2015 10:49 AM PST

Today's Personal Income and Outlays shows consumer spending once again on the "soft side" despite solid income growth.

Income was in-line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. However, spending came in with an anemic 0.1% gain month-over-month. The Econoday Consensus Estimate for consumer spending was 0.3%, in a range of 0.2% to 0.5%, so economists once again were way overoptimistic.

Moreover, the core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in at 0.0% whereas the consensus estimate was 0.2% in a range of 0.1% to 0.2%. The PCE price index was another big miss for economists.

Highlights

The core PCE is the Fed's most important inflation reading and it is not showing rising pressure, coming in unchanged in October, vs an expected gain of 0.2 percent, with the year-on-year rate at 1.3 percent which is also unchanged. Consumer spending also proved soft, up only 0.1 percent vs expectations for a 0.3 percent gain. Spending shows flat readings across categories including only a small gain for services which usually are strong.

The income side is better, hitting expectations at a 0.4 percent gain with wages & salaries showing an outsized gain of 0.6 percent. And the outlook for future spending is solid with a strong 3 tenths rise in the savings rate to 5.6 percent.

Turning back to inflation readings, the overall PCE price index remains nearly dead flat in a reminder that fuel prices remain very low and should give a boost to durable spending during the holidays. The PCE price index is up only 0.1 percent, vs Econoday expectations for a 0.2 percent gain, with the year-on-year rate at a very telling and extremely low plus 0.2 percent.

Though income data in this report do point to consumer strength ahead, the spending data are not a strong start at all for the fourth quarter. These results, especially the core price readings, will not lift the odds for a December rate hike.

Recent History Of This Indicator

The core PCE price index is the Fed's favorite inflation reading and Econoday expectations are calling for a 0.2 percent gain in October in what would be substantial enough to further build expectations for a December rate hike. Readings on personal income and personal spending are also expected to rise, at respective consensus forecasts of plus 0.4 percent for the former, reflecting wage and workweek gains in the October employment report, and plus 0.3 percent for the latter in what, combined with steady incremental gains in service spending, would be in line with gains for core retail sales.

Another Overoptimistic Forecast

All-in-all this was another hugely overoptimistic estimate by economists. Wage gains were in-line with expectations, but wage gains are easy to forecast given data that comes out of monthly job reports.

For more on perpetual overoptimism, please see Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Black and Blue Friday Coming Up

Posted: 24 Nov 2015 11:48 PM PST

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Black and Blue Friday will follow, putting U.S. Consumers and Stores in Face Off Over Discounts.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey found more people planned to cut holiday spending than increase in every category surveyed: clothing, jewelry, electronics, food and toys, and that 46 percent felt they could wait longer in the season to buy because of faster shipping.

Appliances, entertainment items, infant products and hardware showed narrowing discounts, MarketTrak reported, while promotions for apparel, toys and electronics were getting bigger.

Kurt Jetta, head of retail industry researcher TABS Group, found the discounts underwhelming.

"The fact that retail has been so weak coming in to the season would suggest they may need to ramp up efforts to make up for this later," Jetta said. Consumers were cautious going into the holidays, with sales at Macy's, Nordstrom Inc and Best Buy missing expectations in recent quarterly results. Target's online sales fell due to a drop in demand for electronics.

The Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,639 adults from Nov. 12-23 found 28 percent of consumers expected discounts of 50 percent or more on most items, 36 percent hoped to see promotions of at least 33 percent while 49 percent expect a minimum discount of 20 percent on most products.

A survey for Boston Consulting Group found 70 percent of consumers would spend the same or less as last year, describing the consumer outlook as "tepid."

"Consumers have been trained to know that they can wait, and they will wait and that will force the retailers to continue to be promotional," said Joel Bines, managing director at AlixPartners.

Unreliable Polls

Polls are notoriously unreliable. Typically consumers spend more than they expect, on junk they do not need and cannot really afford.

Yet, manufacturing reports have been dismal, and retail sales tepid other than autos.

The recovery is also very long in the tooth, with the Fed poised to hike interest rates.

All things considered I expect a very weak holiday shopping season. If so, someone is sure to be blue. Will it be retailers or shoppers with buying hangovers? I suspect both.

Black and Blue Fighting

There is always a stampede or two over the latest craze toy or hot promotion that will be thrown into the ashcan six months from now. And someone lands a punch every year, in fights over who had their hands first on the last discounted thingamabob.

The best way to face the hustle and bustle of black and blue Friday is to not face it at all. I recommend a hike, a bike ride, a walk in the park, or golf if weather permits.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

MeasureFest 2015: what did we learn?

MeasureFest 2015: what did we learn?

#1 – Testing strategy

#2 – The (potential) impact of Adblocking

#3 – Simple GA solutions

Seth's Blog : Unconscious consumption

Unconscious consumption

More Recent Articles

joi, 26 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

AddMoreTraffic - 2015 Black Friday Sale!

Seth's Blog : The vulnerability of 'thank you'

The vulnerability of 'thank you'

More Recent Articles

miercuri, 25 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

#1 – Testing strategy

#2 – The (potential) impact of Adblocking

#3 – Simple GA solutions

joi, 26 noiembrie 2015

miercuri, 25 noiembrie 2015

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

Subscribe to