miercuri, 7 septembrie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Tracking the KPIs of Social Media

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 04:51 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Social media receives a massive amount of attention on the web and attracts a great deal of interest from marketers, too. The primary complaint of those who invest seems to be consistent: it's hard to measure the impact to the bottom line. On this point, I must concede - while social's an exciting new area for online marketers, its value isn't always commensurate with the effort required and even when it is, it's tough to prove that point to clients or executives asking for justification.

This post is here to help. In it, I'll try to take a brief look at the topics surrounding this problem and offer some solutions, tools and methodologies to make things easier.

Why + Where Social Matters

Social media has an analytics problem. Whereas many other sources - ads, organic search, referrals, bookmarks - all drive traffic that directly converts (i.e. results in a purchase/signup action), social traffic is very temporal. Visitors from Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Google+, StumbleUpon, et al. are known to visit a page and quickly depart. This leaves marketers struggling to understand the value of these channels. High bounce rates, low browse rates and awful conversion rates make social the black sheep of the referring traffic sources.

I'll try to explain the problem, and the reason why social still matters, despite these poor metrics, in visual form:

Conversion Funnel Featuring Social Media

On the web, visitors are rarely buyers (or "conversion action" takers of any kind) on a first visit. The web's a tool for discovery, research and investigation and people employ it that way. They browse around, find things that are interesting, discover potential needs or desires, further examine the options and eventually make a purchase decision.

For most, the web is less like the checkout aisle at the grocery store (stocked with tempting treats and not-so-tempting magazines, at least IMO) and more like the considered purchase of a grill, television set or automobile. Social media isn't the deal closer - it's the channel that creates potential for a future conversion. Social media can create brand familiarity and drive visitors to content that further draws them in, but it very rarely directly answers an expressly-stated need.

Let's take a look at a typical buying cycle for someone who takes a free trial of SEOmoz's software and look where social falls in the process:

Lifecycle of Brand Impressions Prior to Conversion

Twitter and Facebook are early on in the process, likely prior to this customer's realization of need or knowledge of the product. Social channels are likely to be partially responsible for thousands of free trials at SEOmoz, but given the tools currently available, we'd have a very tough time figuring out just how much social participation and presence brought to the company.

Another great illustration of this phenomenon comes via Eloqua's Content Grid, which explores the types of content shared on various channels (including social media) and its impact on the buying process:

Eloqua's Content Grid

Social media does lots of good things for businesses and brands on the web:

  • Drives traffic
  • Builds brand familiarity
  • Creates positive associations with the brand
  • Delivers social proof via the people sharing the content and discussing the brand
  • Attracts brand followers and evangelists who can help spread the word

The Atlantic recently had an article talking about why good advertising works, and many of the same principles apply to social media but are, in my opinion, even more powerful because they're not interruption-based, but inbound and organic. If 10 of the people I follow on Twitter or Google+ start sharing links to a new startup's website, I'm going to be far more engaged, impressed and enticed than if that same startup put banner ads on some of the websites I browse. Both create brand awareness, but social is more personal, more trustworthy and more likely to capture my click.

We know that social is a softer, more-difficult-to-measure traffic source, but we're inbound marketers and that means we can't live without data :-) So let's explore some of the ways we can monitor this channel.

Which Social Metrics to Track

In the social media analytics world, there are several key types of metrics we're interested in tracking:

  • Traffic data - how many visits and visitors did social drive to our sites?
  • Fan/follower data - how many people are in our various networks and how are they growing?
  • Social interaction data - how are people interacting with, sharing and re-sharing our content on social networks?
  • Social content performance - how is the content we're producing on social sites performing?

Getting the right metrics to answer these questions requires segmenting by network. Not every question will have direct answers in the data, so we may need to make assumptions or inferences.

Facebook

Facebook offers a relative wealth of data about nearly all the metrics we care about through their built-in product for brand pages, Facebook Insights:

Facebook Share Story CTR

Facebook demographics

 

Here you can track key metrics over time, including the size of your fanbase, the reach and effectiveness of your content, the quantity of likes and shares of your content, demographics of your fans and more.

Insights also has a very unique and powerful feature - integration on your website. Using a small bit of Javascript code, you can embed the Facebook Insights functionality on your site and receive information about all the users visiting your pages that are logged into Facebook. Since it's been well-covered on SEOmoz (and around the web), I won't dwell too much on Insights other than to say it's the most robust of the built-in, social platform analytics tools by far.

More on Insights:

Twitter

Twitter and Facebook are likely to be the largest two social networks for referring traffic to most sites (StumbleUpon purportedly sends more outbound traffic, but is more of a discovery/browsing engine than a true social network), but while Facebook has relatively sophisticated analytics built into their platform, Twitter does not. This means tracking growth of metrics over time requires third-party tools (or a lot of time collecting data manually), which I'll cover in a section below.

The key metrics I care about on Twitter are:

  • Followers (and follower growth over time) - the unique number of Twitter users who've "followed" my account

    Twitter Followers
     
  • Active Followers - the number of followers who've logged into or used a feature of Twitter in the past 30 days (those that have not are likely inactive or non-human accounts). This is challenging to get, and requires software that runs through your followers and determines which are actively using via the API. Some third party tools discussed below will show this information.
     
  • @ Replies - the number of tweets sent that begin with my account name

    Twitter @ Reply
     
  • @ Mentions - a tweet that includes my account name, but uses it inside the tweet, rather than at the beginning, meaning others on Twitter can see the tweet by default, rather than only those who follow both accounts

    Twitter @ Mention
     
  • Brand Mentions - tweets that contain the brand/account name but don't use the @ symbol

    Twitter Brand Mention
     
  • Domain/URL Mentions - tweets that include a link that contains my brand name/domain name. These now include, by default, any shortened URL that contains the brand/domain name as Twitter is automatically parsing the final destination URL for matches to the query.

    Twitter URL/Domain Mention
     
  • Direct Retweets - the quantity of retweets (using Twitter's native retweet button/functionality) appeared on the service

    Direct Retweet
     
  • RTs & Vias - the quantity of tweets that contained an RT or via of my account. These are similar to direct retweets, but aren't necessarily counted by Twitter's automatic RT system because they contain a modification of the original message and appear to come from a unique source.

    Indirect RTs and Vias on Twitter
     
  • Best Performing Content - the content I shared on Twitter that earned the most clicks, retweets and shares. This is currently unavailable directly through Twitter, but some third-party tools will display it.
     
  • Direct Traffic + Non-Twitter.com Drivers - sources that sent traffic to my site via Twitter's ecosystem, even if they come from desktop clients or other third-party software sources. Thanks to a recent change made by Twitter, these will now show up (mostly) as coming from T.co (Twitter's shortener).

    Twitter Ecosystem Referrers

In addition to these relatively standard metrics, I'd love to be able to see the impact of my interactions in Twitter on follower count, engagement, etc. For example, if my account sends a tweet that earns me 100 new followers, it would be terrific to see that growth, but currently isn't possible (to my knowledge).

All of these metrics are showing the growth, reach and traffic-level impact of my Twitter activity, but none of them help with the full-lifecycle tracking shown above. In an ideal world, I'd want to see the bottom-line impact of my Twitter interactions, but this is very challenging to achieve. Luckily, Google's Analytics evangelist, Avinash Kaushik, wrote a great post on tracking Twitter here, which can serve as further reference.

It's often mentioned that in analytics, nothing is worth tracking unless it can be used to take action and improve. For the metrics above, the primary action you're tracking is your own and the key to taking better actions is comparing successful interactions, tweets and content against less successful ones to determine what has the best impact on growing your audience, bringing visits to your site and, eventually, driving conversion actions.

LinkedIn

LinkedIn functions like a hybrid of Twitter and Facebook. Connections require acceptance from both sides, but public entities (like company pages) and groups can be followed. LinkedIn tends to be a great social network for those who are recruiting talent or involved in B2B sales and marketing. It's often far less effective as a pure consumer/B2B channel.

Like Facebook, LinkedIn has some built-in analytics for businesses, one for individual profiles, and lots of data points that are useful to track, including:

  • Company Page Views + Uniques - these track the number of times your company's LinkedIn profile has been viewed over time and the quantity of unique visitors to the page

    LinkedIn Page Views + Uniques
     
  • Quantity of Followers - as with Twitter, individuals can "follow" a brand account on LinkedIn and receive status updates in their "updates" stream. The more followers, the greater your ability to reach more people on LinkedIn with the content you share there

    LinkedIn Followers
     
  • Connections - The quantity of unique connections for an individual profile on LinkedIn is a worthwhile metric to track, but unfortunately, I couldn't find built-in functionality to graph that data, just the raw, current count (on the "Network Statistics" page) and some data about the geographic and industry reach of those connections.

    LinkedIn Connections

     
  • Messages and Invitations - the number of invitations and messages to your account (I clearly need to find a free hour or two and comb through mine - sorry if I haven't added you yet). This, too, lacks any graphing or temporal analysis capability.

    LinkedIn Invitations + Messages
     
  • Profile Views - how many people have looked at your profile over time and some data about who they are (if they're a "1st" connection, LinkedIn will show their name; if not, they'll display their company or industry)

    LinkedIn Profile Views
     
  • Top Keywords - a list of the top keywords users on LinkedIn searched for prior to discovering your profile.

    LinkedIn Top Keywords
     
  • Content Shares - tragically, I couldn't find a way to measure or record the quantity of status updates/shares you've sent out over LinkedIn nor the number of "likes" you've received on the service... Hopefully they'll add those soon.
     
  • Traffic - LinkedIn isn't a huge traffic driver for most, but for certain B2B sites, it can be relatively substantial and the quality is often higher than other social sources. Here's a screenshot from Moz's Google Analytics

    LinkedIn Traffic to Moz

    Over the past month, LinkedIn's been our 4th largest referrer (since referrals from seomoz.org and pro.seomoz.org are technically internal referrers); not too shabby!

Few third-party tools exist to help with measurement of LinkedIn, but over time, I hope to see more tools in the social media analytics field achieve success with Twitter and Facebook and expand to LinkedIn and beyond.

Google+

Google's new social network is still relatively young, but given Google's intent to make it part of the signals that influence web search rankings and considering the dramatic growth (to 25 million+ members) in the first two months after launch, it's already worthy of marketers' attention.

Unfortunately, the network doesn't yet have any sophistication around metrics tracking, and very few third-party apps have integrated Google+ (an API and oAuth functionality still do not exist in robust ways). Despite this, there's plenty of interesting metrics worth tracking, it's just insanely frustrating because even raw counts are unavailable for many of these. Hopefully, Google will add some soon (heck, if you work on the Google+ team and are doing analytics for users/brands, please consider this list!):

  • Number of Followers - This, at least, is possible. Technically, on Google+, these aren't called "followers" but instead use the more awkward nomenclature "have you in circles." You can see this on your profile page.

    Google+ Have In Circles
     
  • +Name Mentions - It's tough to even reach the list of these (screenshot below), and, unfortunately, there's no raw quantity that I could find in the service, making it nearly impossible (and certainly unpragmatic) to track the number of named mentions you receive on Google+ today.

    Named Mentions on Google+
     
  • Brand Mentions - Another bummer; I'm unaware of any way to find this through Google+ currently. However, you can use Google's "site:plus.google.com" search modifier and query for your brand name with date restrictions, as per this example query (illustrated below):

    Google+ Brand Search
     
  • Content Shares, Content +1s, Link Shares, Link +1s - These would all be excellent to add to the list, but tragically have no way of extracting data from the current Google+ system (to my knowledge, anyway). Hopefully in the future they'll arrive.
     
  • +1s of Your Site's Content - This is currently unavailable in Google+, but is possible to track via Google's Webmaster Tools. The tool gives really excellent analytics data on the impact of +1s, the quantity and where they come from and point to:

    Google +1s Tracking in Webmaster Tools
     
  • Traffic - Google+ is already a traffic powerhouse for many tech-forward brands and those that reach early adopters in general, especially considering their relatively small social market share (1/8 the size of Twitter in total users, probably smaller in actives). Here's a screenshot of Moz's traffic (for the record, they're our 9th largest referrer of visits to the site over the past 30 days):

    Google+ Referral Traffic to Moz

    Perhaps due to privacy issues, Google+ uses a single referring URL for all traffic, helping to consolidate it in analytics reports but making it frustrating to determine which shares/users/links sent what quantities or value of visits.

Reddit, StumbleUpon, Quora, Yelp, Flickr, and YouTube

Depending on the quantity and value of the traffic that other social networks send, there may indeed be additional metrics worth tracking. For SEOmoz, StumbleUpon, Slideshare, Reddit and Quora are all in our top 50 referrers, and each sends 500+ visits/month. These are likely worth some investment on the metrics and effort front, and if small quantities of contribution/participation yield large returns, more investment is likely warranted.

Blogs + Forums

The world of social started out as one where discussion sites (forums, Q+A, bulletin boards and the like) and the blogosphere reigned supreme. Eventually, consolidation and massive adoption of the major networks (those mentioned above) took over the hearts and minds of the press, but the social web is still very much alive in the blogosphere and forum world.

Marketers have massive opportunities in these spaces, too. At SEOmoz, we have tens of thousands of visits each week from blogs and discussion sites of all sizes, and participation/interaction with those sources often yields fantastic results in referral traffic, mindshare and links. Many brands do likewise, hiring community managers or evangelists to engage in the sites where industry topics are discussed and building up strong, recognizable profiles that help bring awareness and produce traffic+links.

Thus, as responsible inbound marketers, it's our job to measure these channels and quantify their impact.

  • Site/Brand Mentions - mentions of a site or brand name, e.g. "seomoz" or "www.seomoz.org" in the blog/discussionsphere can help lead you to content and conversations worthy of engagement, as well as tracking the quantities of those mentions (and possibly the sentiment as well) over time. Google Alerts and Blogscape are potentially worth looking at to help monitor these mentions.

    Mentions and Links via Blogscape
     
  • Links - direct links are nice because they appear either in link-tracking tools like Google Webmaster Tools, Open Site Explorer or Majestic OR directly in your web analytics (if they send any traffic). Noting new referral sources (in quantity and location) and applying metrics (I like Domain Authority personally, but of course, I'm biased)
  • Traffic - a must-have for any inbound channel, visit-tracking is the most simple metric here (though honestly, I wish it could be tracked alongside the quantitative metrics for mentions/links and stats like follow vs nofollow / DA / # of linking root domains / etc. to help give a sense of the SEO value, too).

For any inbound marketing channel (social or otherwise) you're considering, I really like this process:

The Inbound Marketing Process

Losing a few hours to channels that don't provide value is minimal next to the value of discovering and participating on those that do!

If you're curious about this process and want to dive deeper, this presentation may be helpful.

Tools for Measuring Social Media Metrics

The number of tools available to track social media has grown exponentially over the last 3 years, and while I'll be unable to list all of them, this will hopefully provide a good sample set:

  • PostRank - great for tracking RSS feed content's performance in the social world, though with the purchase by Google, Facebook data is now gone (which is the largest network by far, thus rendering the service a bit less-than-valuable, IMO).
  • Bit.ly - excellent for tracking clickthroughs on content from any source on any device or medium. It's frustrating to have an extra layer of analytics required, but given the non-reporting of many desktop and mobile clients, bit.ly's tracking has become a must for those seeking accurate analytics on the pages they share.
  • Radian6 - probably the best known of the social media monitoring tools, Radian6 is geared toward enterprises and large budgets, but has impressive social tracking, sentiment analysis and reporting capabilities.
  • Backtype - another fantastic tool for tracking social metrics that may be lost to acquisition by Twitter. I've got my fingers crossed that they're planning to build
  • Social Mention - Enables "Google Alerts"-like updates from social media sources (Twitter in particular) along with several plugins and search functions.
  • Raven Tools - A toolset that offers both search and social tracking functionality, Raven helps track many of the basic metrics from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, and is likely expanding into other networks in the future.
  • Converseon - A very impressive social and web monitoring tool out of NYC, Converseon, like Radian6, is geared toward enterprises, but offers human-reviewed sentiment classification and analysis - a very powerful tool for those seeking insight into their brand perception on the social web.
  • Pagelever - specifically focused on tracking Facebook interactions and pages, they provide more depth and data than the native Insights functionality.
  • TwitterCounter - a phenomenal tool for monitoring the growth of Twitter accounts over time (it tracks latently, offering historical data for many accounts even if you haven't used it before). Upgrading to "premium" provides analytics on mentions and retweets as well.
  • FollowerWonk - technically more of a social discovery tool, Wonk lets you search and find profiles via a "bio" search function, but also offers very cool analytics on follower overlap and opportunity through a paid credits model.
  • Social Bakers - stats monitoring for Twitter and Facebook (and several types of unique Facebook sources like Places and Apps)
  • Crowdbooster - more than a raw analytics tool, Crowdbooster focuses on providing tips such as timing and suggested users for engagement to help improve your social reach.
  • Awe.sm - link and content tracking, along with traditional social metrics analytics; they've also got a very pretty interface.
  • TwentyFeet - aggregation of metrics and a datastream from Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
  • SimplyMeasured - reporting via Excel exports, including some very cool streams of data.
  • Most Shared Posts - a plugin for Wordpress from Tom Anthony that enables Wordpress users to see the posts that are most shared on Google +1, Twitter and Facebook.

If you have tools you love, please feel free to add them in the comments (links are certainly welcome, too). OnReact in the comments noted this great post on tools specifically for Google+, some of which can be useful to gather the data above. Several other tools mentioned in the comments (apologies for my initial overlook):

Obviously, there's a ton of metrics and data worthy of attention, and no single platform to combine them (at least, not yet). For now, marketers are stuck with a combination of tools, manual collection, visit tracking via analytics and plenty of questions about the value of social media. However, much like the SEO space, I expect that we'll see an increasing growth of metrics, tools, sophistication from marketers and value derived through participation and network growth. It's exciting to be an early adopter in this space :-)


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Seth's Blog : Tote bag marketing

Tote bag marketing

Retail fundraisers have a choice:

You can give a gift along with a donation and spend all your time talking about how great the gift is. The MS bikeathon in New York is like this. The entire pitch is how rare or fun the ride is, with very little time spent on the difficult chore of selling people on raising money for a disease that's hard to visualize and not ubiquitous. The worst example of this is the gala at the fancy restaurant, where novices expect that $500 a plate somehow means the food is going to be good.

You can give a gift that serves as a badge, a symbol for the tribe. It could be your name in the program, or on the wall, or a t-shirt of coffee mug that lets others see what you did. Maybe you'll sit with someone interesting at the dinner...

Or you could focus on the way it feels to do something good, on the urgency, the emergency and the good that's getting done.

With the End Malaria project, Michael and I spent a lot wrestling with this.

The magic of a digital tote bag is that you can spend a fortune, a huge amount of time and effort, produce something magical and each incremental copy doesn't cost a thing. So instead of boiled chicken or a sweatship gimcrack, you get a world class book by 62 authors. A great book, and an important one for you to read, sure, but once you say to people, "buy this book," then you have to spend a lot of time persuading people to buy any book, to sell reading and the search for wisdom and the notion of actually buying, you know, a book.

"Is the book really worth $20? Can I get a copy at the library? Why not wait?" I'm not good at doing a hard sell of a book--if you don't like books, I can't get you to like them by writing a paragraph or two.

Instead, I hope you'll buy a copy today even if you don't buy books, even if you don't even intend to read it, even if you don't have a Kindle or a Kindle app. That would be fabulous, because it means that the transference of emotion has kicked in, and you have realized what a screaming bargain it is to pay $20 for the peace of mind that comes with saving someone's life.

Way more useful than a tote bag.

PS thanks to you (or your colleagues) as I write this, the book is the #1 business book, an instant worldwide bestseller. As a thank you to those that bought a copy, here's a link to a five hour long podcast interview with some of the authors. It's the honor system, of course. (And thanks to our biggest cash sponsors, Ashley Sleep and HubSpot, for their generous donations to MNM.)

 

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Tomorrow Night: Joint Address on Putting Americans Back to Work

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2011
 

Tomorrow Night: Joint Address on Putting Americans Back to Work

President Barack Obama will address a joint session of Congress tomorrow night and lay out his plans for putting Americans back to work. You can tune-in to watch this speech on WhiteHouse.gov/Live.

Immediately following the President’s address, stay tuned for a live discussion with policy experts answering your questions on the President's speech. You can submit your questions through WhiteHouse.gov, Facebook and Twitter.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama talks with Chief of Staff Bill Daley in the Outer Oval Office, Sept. 6, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

The Clock is Ticking for a Clean Extension of the Transportation Bill
Allowing funding for America's roads and bridges to expire would cost nearly one million construction workers their jobs over the next year. See how many jobs are at stake in your state if Congress fails to pass a clean extension of the transportation bill.

Austin’s Warrior Playroom: A New Space for Families at Walter Reed
The Mario Lemieux Foundation provides a preview of Austin's Warrior Playroom, a new space for family members of wounded warriors at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Ten Years Later: Air Traffic Controllers Remember 9/11
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood commends air traffic professionals who used their training and experience to bring thousands of planes safely out of harm's way on September 11th, ten years ago.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

10:00 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

1:30 PM: Vice President delivers remarks at a screening of the documentary REBIRTH for Washington, DC, area college students WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:00 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of State Clinton

4:00 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Panetta

4:45 PM: The President honors Jimmie Johnson’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship WhiteHouse.gov/live

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : That buzzing in my ear didn't mean I was about to die

That buzzing in my ear didn't mean I was about to die

Six weeks ago, at midnight, I found myself awake but wiped out from jet lag. I was in a lumpy bed, in the dark, in an obscure, $20 a night, John-Waters'-esque former country club. I was in Kitale, Kenya, near the Ugandan border.

A mosquito was buzzing in my ear. (Why do they buzz in your ear?). I had meds, of course, but what if I didn't? What if, like so many who live here, I had kids and no money for medicine?

Try to imagine that for a second before you click onto the next thing you've got on your agenda for today.

Today is End Malaria Day.

Right this minute, right now, please do three things:

  1. Buy two copies of End Malaria, an astonishing new book by more than sixty of your favorite authors. In a minute, I will explain why this might be the most important book you buy this year (not the best book, of course, just the most important one). You should buy one in paperback too so you can evangelize a copy to a colleague.
  2. Tweet or like this post, or email it to ten friends (It only takes a second.)
  3. And, visit the End Malaria Day website and share it as well.

What would happen if you did that? What would happen if you stepped up and spent a few dollars?

Here's what would happen: someone wouldn't die.

A child wouldn't die from malaria, a disease that causes more childhood death than HIV/AIDS.

It's that direct. Malaria bednets are simple nets that hang over a window or a bed. They're treated with a chemical that mosquitos hate. The mosquitos fly away, they don't bite, people don't get malaria.

Every single penny spent on the Kindle edition goes to Malaria No More, giving them enough money to buy one or two bednets and to deliver them and be sure they're used properly. Low overhead, no graft, no waste. Just effectiveness. And if you buy the beautiful paperback edition, you can easily give it away when you're done and the same $20 donation gets made. None of the authors or anyone at the Domino Project sees your money, there's no ulterior motive, just the fact that a kid won't die.

Wait, there is one ulterior motive: You might be inspired. One of the sixty plus contributors might share a gem or spark an idea.

And I guess there's a second motive: Stepping up feels right. It's a few clicks to buy a book, one you might be able to afford. And for the rest of the day, or even a week, you'll remember how it felt to save someone's life.

Please.

EM_Jacket_Front2DETAIL

And if you could, after you buy a copy, please tweet or post or email your friends. It matters. Thanks.

 

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marți, 6 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Italian PM Calls Vote of Confidence; 70,000 Protest in Rome Against Austerity; Strikers Shut Down Transport; European Stocks at July 2009 Levels

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 12:42 PM PDT

Attention turns to the German courts tomorrow for a ruling on the legality of bailouts. Today, eyes are on Italy.

Italian PM Calls Vote of Confidence

Bloomberg reports Berlusconi Cabinet Will Call for Confidence Vote on Revised Austerity Plan
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called a Cabinet meeting today to authorize a confidence vote in Parliament on an amended 45.5 billion-euro ($64.5 billion) austerity plan that prompted a general strike.

The meeting at 6 p.m. in Rome will pave the way for a vote on the measures, which will include raising the value-added tax rate by one percentage point to 21 percent, a 3 percent levy on incomes of more than 500,000 euros a year as well as an increase in the retirement age of women in the private sector starting in 2014, Berlusconi's office said in an e-mailed statement.

Travel Woes

The eight-hour walkout by CGIL, Italy's biggest union, disrupted travel and manufacturing as protests in Rome and other cities attracted as many as a million people, according to the union. Fifteen percent of workers at Fiat SpA (F) took part in the strike, the nation's biggest manufacturer said by e-mail.

Fifty-eight percent of employees stayed off the job, the union said in a statement on its website, citing a survey. Innovation Minister Renato Brunetta, citing a poll of 10 percent of civil servants, said 3.1 percent of public-sector workers participated in the strike, according to an e-mailed statement.

About 50 percent of trains, most of them regional, were halted, according to CGIL. Rome's two metro lines and local commuter trains were shut down, ATAC, the company that runs them, said in a statement on its website.

Stranded Passengers

Hundreds of people were stranded at airports in the capital and Milan as flights were delayed or canceled. Alitalia SpA said it canceled some domestic and international flights and Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA) said it canceled 200 flights to and from Italy, affecting some 35,000 passengers.
Italian Workers Strike Against Austerity Measures

The New York Times reports Italian Workers Strike Against Austerity Measures
Thousands of workers took to the streets in Italy on Tuesday in a general strike to protest a package of ever-changing austerity measures required by the European Central Bank and now up for debate in the Italian Senate.

The eight-hour strike shut down transport and businesses nationwide. It was called by the C.G.I.L. union, which represents 2 million public and private sector workers, in opposition to a 45.5 billion-euro austerity package of tax hikes and spending cuts proposed by the Italian government last month to reduce Italy's budget deficit by 2013.

The Northern League, the most powerful party in Mr. Berlusconi's coalition, had been vehemently opposed to raising the retirement age for women, since in Italy public day care is scarce and grandmothers routinely serve as child care providers.

Addressing a crowd of an estimated 70,000 people in Rome on Tuesday, Susanna Camusso, the leader of C.G.I.L., called the change to the labor law "unjust" and threatened more strike actions if it weren't removed.

"If Parliament doesn't strike this from the bill, they have to know that we will use every path and initiative possible so that this shameful measure is removed," she told an estimated 70,000 supporters outside the Colosseum on Tuesday.

Pierluigi Bersani, the leader of the center-left opposition, criticized the measures. "This package should be strengthened and made more equitable," he said. "It's useless to pass it quickly if it's not done well. Otherwise we will end up having a new austerity package every week."

On Monday, Mario Draghi, the outgoing Bank of Italy president and incoming president of the European Central Bank, became the latest European leader to pressure Mr. Berlusconi to approve the measures swiftly.

He said that Italy should "not take it for granted" that the European Central Bank would continue buying Italian debt.
Expect Hit to Tourism

One of Italy's bright spots is tourism. Don't expect that to last if transportation disruptions become the norm.

European Stocks Lowest in Two Years

Please consider European Stocks Drop to Two-Year Low; Shell, Lloyds Lead Decline
European stocks declined for a second day, dragging the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the lowest in two years, amid concern that the global economy is slowing.

The Stoxx 600 lost 1.6 percent to 223.13 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the lowest since July 29, 2009. The gauge has tumbled 23 percent from this year's peak in February amid concern that Europe will fail to contain its sovereign-debt crisis and that the economic recovery in the U.S. will falter.

The Stoxx 600 pared an earlier loss of as much as 3.6 percent as the European Commission said it may present draft legislation on joint bond sales by euro-area nations when completing a report on the feasibility of common debt sales, putting pressure on Germany to drop its opposition.
Euro Bonds Aren't Happening Anytime Soon, If Ever

This is the third reported euro-bond rally attempt in a few week. Here's the real deal: they aren't happening.

Italy Bond Yields Relatively Quiet



Yield on Italian 10-Year government bonds was relatively quiet on a day of massive turmoil elsewhere related to Swiss Franc intervention (see Switzerland to "Buy Foreign Currency in Unlimited Quantities", Sets Euro Peg 1.20; Extreme Mid-Day Currency Volatility; Gold is Safe Haven, Not Francs)

No Confidence Stunt

Berlusconi's approval rating is 22%. Nonetheless, he will survive a vote of no confidence because for now, he has over 50% of the votes in Parliament. That Berlusconi needs to pull this stunt is certainly not confidence inspiring.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 88.48%; No Comments from Trichet, ECB, or EU

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 11:37 AM PDT

Greek one-year bonds march relentlessly towards a yield of 100%.



No Comments from Trichet, ECB, or EU

During this massive spike, there has been no comment from outgoing ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, incoming ECB president Mario Drahgi, or for that matter anyone in the ECB or EU regarding Greek bond yields and the implications of this move.

Here is some advice for Trichet and Drahgi: If you ignore a default, it will not go away.

Not that Trichet is listening, but I offered additional advice in Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Switzerland to "Buy Foreign Currency in Unlimited Quantities", Sets Euro Peg 1.20; Extreme Mid-Day Currency Volatility; Gold is Safe Haven, Not Francs

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT

In a stunning morning press release, Swiss National Bank sets minimum exchange rate at CHF 1.20 per euro
The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.

Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures.
Line in the Sand

Reuters Reports Swiss draw line in the sand to weaken franc
Using some of the strongest language from a central bank in the modern era, the SNB said it would no longer tolerate an exchange rate below 1.20 francs to the euro and would defend the target by buying other currencies in unlimited quantities.

The move immediately knocked about 8 percent off the value of the franc, which had soared by a third since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 as investors used it as a safe haven from the euro zone's debt crisis and stock market turmoil.

The move was seen as a new shot in the currency wars, with Japan expected to try to weaken the yen if the Swiss action diverts more safe-haven inflows into the currency. Gold, which hit a record higher earlier on Tuesday, is also seen gaining.

"That was the single largest foreign exchange move I have ever seen," said World First chief economist Jeremy Cook. "This dwarfs moves seen post Lehman Brothers, 7/7, and other major geopolitical events in the past decade."
Gold, is Safe Haven, Not Francs

At 1:25 AM today I wrote Gold Hits New High of $1920; Miners Should Follow.

When I wrote that, I had no idea fireworks would hit about an hour later. First, take a look at what I said:
It only took 7 sessions to take back a sharp $200 plunge about a week ago.



click on chart for sharper image

In 2008, gold sold off with everything else but treasuries. Miners were crushed. This time I expect gold and miners to do much better in a big market decline, perhaps even rise.

Other Currencies Look Sick

The Euro, the US dollar, the Yen, and the Yuan all look sick for differing reasons. The Eurozone may break apart, Bernanke is likely to double up on QE and the US deficit is out of control, Japan has a horrendous debt problem, and inflation is out of control in china as is China's infrastructure spending and housing bubble.

The one thing the Euro, the US dollar, the Yen, and the Yuan all have in common is competitive currency debasement by central bankers hoping to increase export to everyone else. Mathematically that is impossible.

Once currency stands out (and it's not the Swiss Franc). It's gold.
The fireworks started an hour or so later. Here are some charts to consider.

Swiss Franc 15-Minute Chart



US$ Index 15-Minute Chart



Gold 15-Minute Chart



Unlike the Swiss Franc, Gold continued on its merry way in the face of competitive currency debasement.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Economic Crossroads of Immense Consequences: Will Governments and Central Bankers Bail Out Bondholders and Banks (again), or the Public at Large?

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 01:48 AM PDT

As noted previously, it is crystal clear to everyone but bankers and brain-dead analysts that banks need to be recapitalized, in Europe and the US as well.

The crucial question is "how?".

In 2008, US taxpayers bailed out AIG (Goldman Sachs really), Fannie Mae, Citigroup, Bank of America and scores more financial corporations of all sizes, too numerous to mention.

Why?

Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, and a parade of bankers and ex-Goldman employees all said this had to be done to spur lending. It was a lie. The bailouts were nothing but a gigantic transfer-of-wealth scheme from the poor to the wealthy.

Banks are not lending because they are still capital impaired, even after the massive bailouts and Fed reflation efforts. Worse yet, corporations do not want to expand because the underlying problem of consumer debt has not gone away.

Similar Setup in Europe

A similar setup is underway in Europe, except it's sovereign debt not mortgages in the spotlight. As in the US, the ECB will not agree to let bondholders take a substantial hit, even though it is perfectly obvious Greece will default.

Greek 1-Year Yield Hits 82%



If 82% interest rates do not scream default, nothing does.

Yet Trichet and the Central Banks do nothing but insist on more austerity measures for Greece.

Yes, Greece has structural problems and they need to be fixed, but where is the written rule "Investing is Winning"?

Investing and Speculation have Risks

Investing and speculation have risks. Those who take risks should take responsibility, not taxpayers.

I salute Iceland and its taxpayers for telling the ECB, the IMF, and the rest of Europe to go to hell. The Icelandic economy is now in repair.

Eurozone Torture

In sharp contrast, Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Italy have nothing but torture to look forward to for the rest of the decade if taxpayers have to foot the bill for stupid loans made by banks.

The rationalization "we need to bail out the banks so they can make loans" has been disproved in spades. Of course anyone with any common sense knew it was a lie in the first place.

Will Bondholders Be Bailed Out Again?

Whether bondholders get bailed out again is the critical question. John Hussman picks up the discussion in An Imminent Downturn: Whom Will Our Leaders Defend?
The global economy is at a crossroad that demands a decision - whom will our leaders defend? One choice is to defend bondholders - existing owners of mismanaged banks, unserviceable peripheral European debt, and lenders who misallocated capital by reaching for yield and fees by making mortgage loans to anyone with a pulse. Defending bondholders will require forced austerity in government spending of already depressed economies, continued monetary distortions, and the use of public funds to recapitalize poor stewards of capital. It will do nothing for job creation, foreclosure reduction, or economic recovery.

The alternative is to defend the public by focusing on the reduction of unserviceable debt burdens by restructuring mortgages and peripheral sovereign debt, recognizing that most financial institutions have more than enough shareholder capital and debt to their own bondholders to absorb losses without hurting customers or counterparties - but also recognizing that properly restructuring debt will wipe out many existing holders of mismanaged financials and will require a transfer of ownership and recapitalization by better stewards.

In game theory, there is a concept known as "Nash equilibrium" (following the work of John Nash). The key feature is that the strategy of each player is optimal, given the strategy chosen by the other players. For example, "I drive on the right / you drive on the right" is a Nash equilibrium, and so is "I drive on the left / you drive on the left." Other choices are fatal.

Presently, the global economy is in a low-level Nash equilibrium where consumers are reluctant to spend because corporations are reluctant to hire; while corporations are reluctant to hire because consumers are reluctant to spend. Unfortunately, simply offering consumers some tax relief, or trying to create hiring incentives in a vacuum, will not change this equilibrium because it does not address the underlying problem. Consumers are reluctant to spend because they continue to be overburdened by debt, with a significant proportion of mortgages underwater, fiscal policy that leans toward austerity, and monetary policy that distorts financial markets in a way that encourages further misallocation of capital while at the same time starving savers of any interest earnings at all.

We cannot simply shift to a high-level equilibrium (consumers spend because employers hire, employers hire because consumers spend) until the balance sheet problem is addressed. This requires debt restructuring and mortgage restructuring (see Recession Warning and the Proper Policy Response ). While there are certainly strategies (such as property appreciation rights) that can coordinate restructuring without public subsidies, large-scale restructuring will not be painless, and may result in market turbulence and self-serving cries from the financial sector about "global financial meltdown." But keep in mind that the global equity markets can lose $4-8 trillion of market value during a normal bear market. To believe that bondholders simply cannot be allowed to sustain losses is an absurdity. Debt restructuring is the best remaining option to treat a spreading cancer. Other choices are fatal.

Greek debt races toward default

On Friday, the yield on one-year Greek debt soared to 67% [Mish note: On Monday it hit 82% as shown above]. Europe is demanding greater and greater austerity as a condition for additional bailouts, but austerity has already resulted in a depression for the people of Greece, and a loss of tax revenues that has paradoxically but very predictably resulted in even larger budget deficits.

To see the one-year yield leaping suddenly to 67% is an indication that we should brace for a very serious turn of events almost immediately.

One problem appears to be that European banks are eagerly volunteering for a 21% haircut on the debt (which is trading far less than that on the open market), but only in exchange for shifting the debt covenants from Greek law to more binding international law. This would be a bad deal for Greece, because it would essentially impose further severe austerity on the Greek people in return for a debt reduction that would still leave the debt/GDP ratio well above 100% and growing. Greece should reject this, because a larger default is inevitable, and it would serve the country best to maintain as much control over the size of the default as possible. Ultimately, my impression is that it would serve Greece best to exit the Euro, but it appears too late for this to be graceful.

What is particularly unfortunate is that all of this is unfolding in a very predictable way, but the constant attempts to ignore reality and defer the inevitable restructuring is imposing enormous costs on the public. As Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote two years ago in their book This Time It's Different, "As of this writing, it remains to be seen whether the global surge in financial sector turbulence of the late 2000s will lead to a similar outcome in the sovereign debt cycle. The precedent [a close historical overlap between banking crises and external debt crises in data from 1900-2008] however, appears discouraging on that score. A sharp rise in sovereign defaults in the current global financial environment would hardly be surprising."
Stimulus

By the way, unlike Hussman, I think the best stimulus measures would come from structural changes such as scrapping prevailing wage laws, slashing military spending, and ending collective bargaining of public unions, combined with a serious overhaul of Medicare.

If we are going to revamp infrastructure, it should be done sensibly and at the lowest cost possible to taxpayers. That means scrapping Davis-Bacon for sure.

Should Greece Exit the Euro?

Hussman writes "Ultimately, my impression is that it would serve Greece best to exit the Euro, but it appears too late for this to be graceful."

One might wonder what the consequences of that action might be.

In Euro break-up – the consequences UBS addresses that very issue. It's a 21 page PDF that interestingly begins with the statement "The Euro should not exist".

That's a true statement but the reason as UBS explains "the Euro as it is currently constituted – with its current structure and current membership – should not exist. This Euro creates more economic costs than benefits for at least some of its members – a fact that has become painfully obvious to some of its participants in recent years."

Simply put, currency unions without fiscal ties have never worked and the Eurozone as it exists today will not work either.

The report goes through an analysis of the costs if a strong nation pulls out (say Germany) and a weak nation pulls out (say Greece).

In the case of Germany leaving, the report states "If a strong economy like Germany leaves the Euro there arenon-currency trade consequences. The exit from the European Union raises potential trade barriers and border disruption. Further, the exit causes a growth shock to the rump Euro, which undermines the export potential."

This is the same conclusion of Michael Pettis as noted in Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions. Here are predictions 10-11.
10. Spain, other PIIGS Leave Euro

Spain will leave the euro and will be forced to restructure its debt within three or four years. So will Greece, Portugal, Ireland and possibly even Italy and Belgium.

The only strategies by which Spain can regain competitiveness are either to deflate and force down wages, which will hurt workers and small businesses, or to leave the euro and devalue. Given the large share of vote workers have, the former strategy will not last long. But of course once Spain leaves the euro and devalues, its external debt will soar. Debt restructuring and forgiveness is almost inevitable.

11. Germany Will Not Voluntarily Share Costs

Unless Germany moves quickly to reverse its current account surplus – which is very unlikely – the European crisis will force a sharp balance-of-trade adjustment onto Germany, which will cause its economy to slow sharply and even to contract. By 2015-16 German economic performance will be much worse than that of France and the UK.

For one or two years the deficit countries will try to bear the full brunt of the adjustment while Germany scolds and cajoles from the side. Eventually they will be unable politically to accept the necessary high unemployment and they will intervene in trade – almost certainly by abandoning the euro and devaluing. In that case they automatically push the brunt of the adjustment onto the surplus countries, i.e. Germany, and German unemployment will rise. I don't know how soon this will happen, but remember that in global demand contractions it is the surplus countries who always suffer the most. I don't see why this time will be any different.
Do monetary unions break up without civil wars?

UBS tackles an interesting question "Do monetary unions break up without civil wars?"
It takes enormous stress for a government to get to the point where it considers abandoning the lex monetae of a country. The disruption that would follow such a move is also going to be extreme. The costs are high – whether it is a strong or a weak country leaving – in purely monetary terms. When the unemployment

consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences.

Past instances of monetary union break-ups have tended to produce one of two results. Either there was a more authoritarian government response to contain or repress the social disorder (a scenario that tended to require a change from democratic to authoritarian or military government), or alternatively, the social disorder worked with existing fault lines in society to divide the country, spilling over into civil war. These are not inevitable conclusions, but indicate that monetary union break-up is not something that can be treated as a casual issue of exchange rate policy
The likelihood of civil war seems remote.

However, I agree with the UBS statement "it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences"

Investing in a break-up scenario

Inquiring minds may be wondering how to play this from an investment standpoint. UBS concludes ...
Our base case for the Euro is that the monetary union will hold together, with some kind of fiscal confederation (providing automatic stabilisers to economies, not transfers to governments).

But what if the disaster scenario happens? How can investors invest if they believe in a break-up, however low the probability? The simple answer is that they cannot. Investing for a break-up scenario has not guaranteed winners within the Euro area. The growth consequences are awful in any break-up scenario. The risk of civil disorder questions the rule of law, and as such basic issues such as property rights. Even those countries that avoid internal strife and divisions will likely have to use administrative controls to avoid extreme positions in their markets.

The only way to hedge against a Euro break-up scenario is to own no Euro assets at all.
Zero Hedge offers more comments in UBS Quantifies Costs Of Euro Break Up, Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War

Warnings Everywhere

In case you missed it, please consider Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet

Breakup or Not, Avoid Euro Assets

UBS does not think a breakup will happen. I think a breakup is quite likely, as does Michael Pettis. Timing is uncertain.

Regardless, avoidance of Euro assets seems wise for multiple reasons.

  • The ECB and Eurozone governments seem hell-bent on protecting bondholders and imposing severe austerity measures. Those will impede growth in Europe.
  • Trichet will be gone in October and will be replaced by Italian central bank head, Mario Draghi. Draghi will act to protect Italy and that may not be good for the rest of Europe.
  • Draghi is an ex-vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International. I presume we can guess whether he will act to protect banks and bondholders or promote growth.
  • Recapitalization of European banks is coming and it is likely to be painful, perhaps more painful than needed actions in the US.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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