duminică, 23 septembrie 2012

Seth's Blog : Truth and consequences

Truth and consequences

There's a huge chasm in most markets: People who want to be isolated from the consequences of their actions, and those that are focused (sometimes too much) on those consequences.

For years, Paula Dean sold cooking shows to an audience that refused to care about what would happen if they regularly ate what she cooked.

Rep. Anthony Weiner wasn't open to buying warnings about what would happen to his photos and tweets.

At the same time, there's the audience of new moms that are overeager to baby-proof their home (just in case), the conscientious recycler who doesn't want to know about the actual costs of picking up that bin out front, and the passionate teacher who sacrifices every day so his students can thrive a decade from now.

If you are selling tomorrow, be very careful not to pitch people who are only interested in buying things that are about today. It's virtually impossible to sell financial planning or safety or the long-term impacts of the environment to a consumer or a voter who is relentlessly focused on what might be fun right now.

Before a marketer or organization can sell something that works in the future, she must sell the market on the very notion that the future matters. The cultural schism is deep, and it's not clear that simple marketing techniques are going to do much to change it.



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sâmbătă, 22 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Does Mitt Romney Really "Know Better" Than the Silly Things He Says?

Posted: 22 Sep 2012 01:07 PM PDT

Does Mitt Romney really "Know Better" than the silly things he has said on the campaign trail lately? I ask the question because that subject came up twice recently, once in Time Magazine, and once in the Financial Times.

Writing for Time Magazine, writer Joe Klein brought up the subject in The Imaginary Campaign
It is the business of a presidential challenger to overstate the dire situation the incumbent has inflicted on a betrayed public. Bill Clinton certainly overstated the extent of the economic recession in 1992. But there are limits. There is reality.

In this country, successful politicians have always avoided apocalyptic predictions. This year, however, Republicans have routinely embraced the dark side. If Obama is re-elected, "I don't know that our country really survives four more years of all the regulations," Senator Rand Paul told CNN's Wolf Blitzer during the Republican Convention. Blitzer called him on it, saying, "Wait a second. If President Obama is re-elected, you think the United States of America, in four years, will not be the United States of America?" Paul beat a hasty retreat.

Romney has lived the past six years in his party's overheated shark tank, spending more time pestering plutocrats for cash than meeting with and listening to the general public. I suspect Romney doesn't really believe that 47% of the electorate are moochers; he was just dialing for dollars. But it's becoming increasingly difficult to see how the man who mouthed those words, whether he believes them or not, can be elected President.
Foot-in-Mouth Disease

I wrote about that set of now infamous statements by Romney in Foot-in-Mouth Disease.

Shortly after Romney made that huge gaffe, Tim Pawlenty, a Top Romney Adviser Quit the Campaign. What caught my eye in the Financial Times article was an analysis of some of the statements made by Romney regarding trade with China.

Let's take a look.
Chris Chocola, president of the influential Club for Growth lobby group, gave the most tepid of endorsements of Mr Romney on Thursday, saying he could not be sure that the former Bain Capital executive would be a "pro-growth" president.
"I think he has the potential to exceed expectations. But it's a mixed bag with Romney. That's his problem . . . you don't really know how he'll serve," Mr Chocola told reporters at a briefing organised by the Christian Science Monitor.

"When you start to threaten a trade war with China, when you start to pander politically on trade issues, you're hurting the economy, you're not helping it," Mr Chocola said. "What we need is politicians who stand up and [say] trade with China is good. Yeah, this is why."

With his background in business, Mr Romney "knows better", Mr Chocola said, "but he says what he says".

Mr Romney has vowed to label China a currency manipulator on the first day of his presidency, while Mr Obama this week took action against China over its export subsidies for cars and car parts.
Does Romney Really Know Better?

Chocola says "Romney knows better". Really? Why should anyone believe he does?

In fact, it is far more logical to believe Obama "knows better" for the simple reason Obama has resisted huge pressure from trade unions to label China a currency manipulator for the last four years.

Understanding Smoot-Hawley

One would think that Romney ought to know something about Smoot-Hawley

Yet, off he goes, threatening a no-win trade war with China when instead he ought to stand up and explain why trade is good (with China and everyone else).

A Fool or A Liar?

If Romney does what he says he will do, he is a fool. If he doesn't, he is a blatant liar.

Now, we all know candidates lie. However, Romney made a pledge to do something blatantly stupid on day one. Is he going to lie about a "day one" promise? If that is the premise (and several high-placed Republican friends suggest that), I have to ask: why should anyone believe anything he says at all?

It is far easier to believe Romney is a complete dunce regarding the benefits of free trade than he is purposely making a pledge of this nature. The only other possibility (and it is a far worse possibility), is Romney knows his position on China is wrong, but he will do what he says anyway, if it helps him get elected.

Regardless, of whether he "knows better" or not, Romney certainly "says what he says", frequently flip-flopping in the process (as he does on health-care reform). Those actions have him in extremely hot water.

Thus, I side with Joe Klein on multiple grounds, on several issues: "It's becoming increasingly difficult to see how the man who mouthed those words, whether he believes them or not, can be elected President."

Please bear in mind, this is not an endorsement of president Obama. It is simply a statement of political reality regarding hopelessly inept statements by Romney. The fact remains, both Obama and Romney are fatally flawed, and I will not vote for either of them, but I will vote.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greek Bailout on Hold Again, Is Obama Partly to Blame? IMF Economic Hit Man Hypocrisy

Posted: 22 Sep 2012 08:52 AM PDT

Once again talks between the Troika and Greek politicians broke down. Talks between the Greek political parties have also broken down.

Meanwhile support for Golden Dawn, a political party with a Nazi-like symbol is on a huge upswing. For details, please see, Greek State Tries to Stem Neo-Nazi Rise.

Talks in Greece over the next tranche of loans are now on hold until after the US election. There were numerous reports this week that Obama did not want failed talks before the election, preferring instead they not fail until after the election when it will not matter to him.

Limits? What Limits?

The talks broke down when the Troika asked for more wage and benefit cuts.
The finance ministry says it can make the required savings from cuts in operational expenses and the restructuring of the public sector. But the troika of international lenders, especially the IMF, is unconvinced. It has asked for more wage and pension cuts, according to a person familiar with the talks.

Talk of tension between finance minister Yannis Stournaras and a member of the troika as well as strains within the coalition have fuelled rumours that talks have reached stalemate.

Fotis Kouvelis, the leader of the moderate Democratic Left party, said: "The troika must stop attacking Greek society. The troika must understand there are limits."
Greek Bailout on Hold Again

So ... Greece Braced for Bailout Delay
No deal was clinched on Friday, and the troika's chief inspectors announced a pause from the discussions. The troika said in a statement that the mission was expected to return to Athens after about a week, saying "good progress" had been made during this period.

People familiar with the situation said the US presidential elections had played a role in delaying the disbursement of the loan tranche to Greece, although others disputed this interpretation.

"Everything is being put back," said one senior Greek official, insisting that the troika's report and the disbursement of the loan tranche would take place after the US elections. "The disbursement may even be pushed back to late November."
IMF, Economic Hit Man

Note the hypocrisy of the IMF, insisting Greece tackle its pension and deficit problems now, but urging the US to not do a thing about its problems.

I discussed this at length in Christine Lagarde, IMF Chief, Warns US About Short, Medium, and Long-Term Problems; Like All Keynesian Clowns, Lagarde Does Not Want to Deal With the Present.

The IMF is the protector of interests of big banks and does not give a rat's ass what small countries it destroys in the process. Bear in mind, Greece does need reform and plenty of it, especially in regards to pensions and work rules.

However, Greece does not need tax hikes and nor does Spain. Yet Brussels and the IMF have insisted on that, while openly cheering more deficit spending in the US.

Countries accepting money from the IMF on IMF terms are fools. Greece and Spain both need structural reforms, but they also need to default on foreign debt if they are to have any chance of recovery within a decade.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


"The Worst Test" - An Engineering Flash Mob

Posted: 21 Sep 2012 10:45 PM PDT


Here's an incredible flash mob by Skule Nite 1t3, an engineering musical and sketch comedy troop up at the University of Toronto who decided to lighten the mood during the first exam with plenty of help from the professors to boot.




Seth's Blog : Organization has its effects

Organization has its effects

If you take a group of people, a subgroup of the larger population, and expose them to focused messages again and again, you will start to change their point of view. If you augment those messages with exposure to other members of the group, the messages will begin to have ever more impact.

If the group becomes aligned, and it starts acting like a tribe, those messages will become self-reinforcing. And finally, if you anoint and reward leaders of this tribe, single them out for positive attention because of the way your message resonated with them, it will become fully baked in.

That's a lot of power. Probably too much for the selfish marketer, lobbyist or demagogue to have at his disposal.



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How to Prepare for AuthorRank and Get the Jump on Google

How to Prepare for AuthorRank and Get the Jump on Google


How to Prepare for AuthorRank and Get the Jump on Google

Posted: 21 Sep 2012 05:28 AM PDT

Posted by Mike Arnesen

What AuthorRank Is

If you're like me and you have your finger on Google’s pulse on a daily basis, you’ve undoubtedly heard of AuthorRank. However, I honestly don’t think it’s received its due attention and if you were AFK for a few days or don’t have the option to be “jacked into the feed”, you may have missed it entirely.

Example of Google AuthorRankOver seven years ago (in August of 2005), Google filed a patent for “Agent Rank” which was later masterfully decoded by Bill Slawski. In the patent, Googler David Minogue references ranking “agents” and using the reception of the content they create and their interactions as a factor in determining their rank. The patent suggests that more well-received and popular “agents” could have their associated content rank higher than unsigned content or the content of other less-authoritative “agents”.

Nothing much happened with Agent Rank after that because the idea of ranking “agents” is dependent on being able to identify them in the first place. No great system for claiming an online identify really existed back then; I wouldn’t call W3C’s XML-signature syntax or other digital signature protocol an ideal solution.

Still, ranking agents remained a goal for Google. In 2011, Eric Schmidt expressed that Google still had a desire and need to identify agents in order to improve search quality, stating “it would be useful if we had strong identity so we could weed (spammers) out.”

Literally the following month (September 2011), Google filed a continuation patent referencing a “portable identity platform” which sounds a whole lot like Google+. Profiles on Google+ make an infinitely easier digital signature system than anything that’s come before and, with the rollout of Google Authorship (tying a Google+ profile to pieces of content), it really sounds like that’s what we’re looking at here.

So now Google can start attributing content to specific “agents” and doing just what they set out to do in 2005: rank them.

As early as February of this year, the term “AuthorRank” started to surface in the industry. AJ Kohn wrote a great post on AuthorRank and speculated that this development could change the search game as we know it. He also stated that it would be “bigger than Panda and Penguin combined”.

AuthorRank, of course, wouldn’t be a replacement for PageRank, but would be used to inform PageRank, therefore enabling Google to rank high-quality content more appropriately. I think AJ’s right on the money and that it’s not a matter of if Google rolls out AuthorRank, but when.

AuthorRank will filter PR-based rankings to provide better results

In Google’s never-ending mission to surface high quality, trustworthy content for their searchers, AuthorRank is really the next big step. After more than seven years, I believe they are just about ready to implement it.

Why You Need to Be Ready

I’m certain that Google is going to begin incorporating AuthorRank into their ranking algorithm in the not-too-distant future. I’d put good money on it. All the signs point to it: Google’s emphasis on social, Google Authorship, their ongoing efforts to measure site trust, and their progressive devaluation of raw links as a ranking factor. People want to read content written by credible and knowledgeable people and using AuthorRank as a major part of their search algorithm just makes sense.

Brace yourselves; AuthorRank is Coming

How Long Do We Have?

That’s what we, as SEOs, want to know, right? How long do we have before we need to start worrying about building our own AuthorRank or working on it for our clients?

Stop thinking like that.

It doesn’t matter when it’s coming because once it does, it’ll be too late. Now I’m not saying that the launch of AuthorRank is going to nuke site traffic like Panda, but the impact will be huge. While the rollout of AuthorRank obviously won’t be an algorithmic penalty, sites that have been prepping and carefully building AuthorRank for their site contributors are going to have a major advantage. It may as well be a penalty against the sites and brands that have done nothing to prepare.

The fact is, we have just as long as it takes Google to effectively measure AuthorRank and decide they can rely on it. That could happen tomorrow or it could happen in two years. We don’t know. So let’s all start working on building AuthorRank today.

We can make a highly-educated guess as to what will determine AuthorRank

What Signals Will Factor Into AuthorRank?

Google considers over 200 ranking factors when determining where our sites rank in organic search, so it’s safe to say that they’ll be using plenty of signals to calculate AuthorRank. Here’s my shortlist of factors that Google is likely to use in their calculation:

  • The average PageRank of an author’s content.
  • The average number of +1s and Google+ shares the author’s content receives.
  • The number of Google+ circles an author is in.
  • Reciprocal connections to other high AuthorRank authors.
  • The number and authority of sites an author’s content has been published to.
  • The engagement level of an author’s native Google+ content (i.e., posts to Google+).
  • The level of on-site engagement for an author’s content (i.e., comments and author’s responses to comments)
  • Outside authority indicators (e.g., the presence of a Wikipedia page).
  • YouTube subscribers and/or engagement on authored videos (speculation: multiple-attribution author markup for YouTube videos coming soon).
  • Any number of importance/authority metrics on social networks that Google deems trustworthy enough (Twitter, Quora, LinkedIn, SlideShare, etc.).
  • Real world authority indicators like published works on Google Books or Google Scholar.

How to Start Building Your AuthorRank, Today.

Building your AuthorRank (or consulting with clients to build it) is easy. It’s like Wil Reynolds’s concept of doing #RCS, just for people. Seems logical enough to call it #RPS: Real People $h!t.

Sweet acronyms aside, what do we actually have to do? Here’s how we start building AuthorRank…

Get Down with Authorship

First of all, you’ll need to set up Google Authorship. Aside from getting that sweet author rich snippet in search results, setting this up will give Google exactly what they need to assign you an initial AuthorRank: a tie between your online identity and the content you’re creating.

Don’t Be Lazy (or forgetful)

Once you set up Google Authorship, go and track down all the (quality) content you’ve created on the web and make sure your rich snippet markup is correct by using the Rich Snippet Testing Tool. You don’t want to run the risk of knockout content you’ve created not being factored into your AuthorRank.

Continue (or Start) Writing Killer Content

If you’re working on building your own AuthorRank, this one is easy. Career SEOs have a vested interest putting out killer content. At least, I hope we all have a desire to:

  • Create content that demonstrates our expertise.
  • Help improve the reputation, and demonstrate the value, of our field.
  • Help other SEOs by sharing knowledge.

If you’re consulting to help another organization with AuthorRank, it’s a bit trickier. Still, no matter what the industry, there’s always an opportunity for a brand to provide content that is relevant and valuable.

Selling Brands on Individuality

If you’re a consultant working with a medium or large brand and you’re hoping to get a head start on AuthorRank, you may have a tough road ahead. It can be difficult to get a CEO or head of marketing to highlight their people when they’re concerned about what that will do to the brand. I’ve had clients who’ve been adamantly opposed to letting their employees create content and be a visible part of the company and I’ve had clients who were absolutely stoked to have that opportunity. It really depends on company culture and there will be some companies who may never accept the very cornerstone of AuthorRank. You may want to hire Wil to fly out and explain #RCS to them.

Can We Get To the Good Part?

We’ve covered all the prerequisites at this point, so yes, we can. Here are some strategic ways you can work on building AuthorRank right now. I’ll use the “you’re the one doing it” point of view, but you can apply the concepts to any setting.

Create Content That’s Worth Sharing

It’s just like what we’re doing now. If you’ve been following what’s going down in the inbound industry (particularly, SEOmoz), you know that the definition of link building is slowly, but steadily, changing to “content marketing”. It’s all about creating content your audience cares about. It’s all about creating resources that will help them. It’s all about creating things that they’d actually want to share on their own.

Those concepts are tantamount to content marketing and they’re even more important for AuthorRank. If you’re tying your author identity to content you’ve created just for the sake of creating content or solely for “earning” links, you’re going to be in trouble. Here are a few things that are certain to destroy your AuthorRank as badly as Penguin destroyed sites with questionable backlink profiles:

  • Publishing content on blog networks.
  • Guest posting through guest blogging communities (of course, there are exceptions).
  • Writing content that’s keyword-stuffed or full of grammatical errors.
  • Submitting content to article directories.
  • Spinning articles.

Instead, create content that people will want to share on their own because they are actually interested in it. Only post content to the best outlets available to you (see “Get Out There” below).

Specialize

AuthorRank will be much more variable than PageRank in that you can earn a different AuthorRank in different topic areas. Determine what you’re good at/passionate about and create great content in that area. Sure, you can go crazy with different topics but your AuthorRank will probably end up being fairly weak in a lot of different topics instead of strong in one.

Use Google+, Constantly

If any of you don’t like Google+, too bad. Google is going to use your “in circles” count to determine your AuthorRank. That means you need to make sure people have a reason to follow you. A few quick tips:

  • Post updates multiple times a day. Shoot for 5-7 (there’s no data-backed reason for that number, it just sounds like a great amount to me).
  • Check in on your feed and on the global feed and +1 and comment on stories you find interesting. +1ing content makes people stoked and commenting (in a genuine and authentic way) adds something to the conversation. This will only benefit you, and your AuthorRank, in the long run.
  • Fill out your “About” section and title. People use this information to decide if they want to put you in their circles (especially when they’re on mobile).

There are some great posts out there on how to build engagement and a following on Google+ that are far better than what I can cover here. Check some out.

Befriend Relevant Heavy Hitters

Find other authors who would logically have a higher AuthorRank than you (see factors above and consider checking out Tom Anthony’s Author Crawler) and work on getting them to encircle you. Aside from having them in your following, you can also put your content in front of them every time you create something awesome.

Find them on Google+ and start to slowly and naturally build a relationship with them. You can use Twitter, Facebook, or any other means of communicating (in person is probably the best way, hands down) but you’ll want to be sure they have a Google+ profile. It also makes a whole lot of sense to make sure they have authorship set up themselves, but don’t discount them if they don’t: I’m betting that Google is going to make sure the process of verifying authorship much simpler and ubiquitous before they make any move to start using AuthorRank.

Promote Your Author Hub

Your Google+ profile is the very hub of your authorship; it’s what Google uses to tie all your content together. Building links to it and optimizing it makes a ton of sense. If your Google+ profile has a high PageRank (yes, it gets its own PageRank) when AuthorRank launches, it’s safe to bet that your AuthorRank will be pretty hot.

Help People In Real Life

Attend local industry meet-ups, offer to speak for free at local blogging groups, and apply to speak at conferences. Be genuine and helpful. In your deck, link to a a blog post you published earlier that same day that they can reference for detailed information beyond what you covered in your presentation. Watch as that thing gets social mentions and links like crazy. That's a major AuthorRank win.

Also, consider dropping a few cards with your Google+ profile URL on them.

Get Out There (Selectively)

Building links to your content from within your own site doesn’t carry much value compared to a backlink from another site. You control that site so of course you’re going to link to your own content (you’d be ill-advised not to). Having other sites link to you is much more meaningful because it shows you’re offering value (right?).

It’s the same with AuthorRank. If you only publish blog posts on a site you control, you’re playing with internal links (or at best, sites on the same host). Get out there and guest blog for (Dr.) Pete’s sake (sorry, AJ, even you). Remember to treat this process just like you treat it for link building; focus on site quality. Only pick high quality sites that have carefully curated content, because when that ties back to you as an author, it’s going to be just like a backlink to your site (hopefully you get one of those, too). You don’t want hundreds of guest posts on low-quality blogs with no editorial standards muddying up your AuthorRank. Instead, shoot for a few high quality guest posts.

Daily Checklist to Improve AuthorRank

Building AuthorRank, just like SEO, needs to be an organic and gradual process; you can’t do it in a day, a week, or a month. However, here are a few things you can incorporate into your daily workflow that are sure to help build your AuthorRank over time.

  1. Check your Google+ feed five times and interact.
  2. Chip away at your weekly blog post (you blog weekly already, right?).
  3. Read a post on a site you’ve targeted for guest blogging and leave a quality comment. Start building visibility (and/or a relationship) with the authors and editors.
  4. Look for two or three interesting people on Google+, circle them, and interact with something they’ve posted.

Conclusion

Years ago, Google realized that providing their users with better results would hinge on identifying and ranking the very people who produced those results. Until the launch of Google+, they had a great idea but no viable way to actually get it off the ground. Now they have everything they need: the idea (Agent Rank), the identity platform (Google+), and the verification method (Google Authorship). Now all that’s left is to fine-tune the ranking and roll it into the algorithm.

The impact of AuthorRank will be so significant that we may as well think of it as a penalty designed to punish anonymity and/or a reputation for distributing low-quality content. Regarding the delay between the initial US Panda rollout and the international one, Fabio Ricotta of Mestre SEO in Brazil, said “you have no idea how good it is to have a six month lead on Matt Cutts”. Well, we’ve seen the signs and we know what to do. Let’s make sure this lead doesn’t go to waste. The time to start building AuthorRank (for ourselves and our clients) is today.


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Weekly Address: Congress Must Act to Create Jobs and Grow the Economy

The White House Saturday, September 22, 2012
 

Weekly Address: Congress Must Act to Create Jobs and Grow the Economy

President Obama describes how the House of Representatives left town without finishing important work that would create jobs and strengthen our economy.

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

Weekly Address

President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address in the Blue Room of the White House, Sept. 21, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

Weekly Wrap Up

Here's a quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov:

Team USA Behind the Scenes: Last week, the President and the First Lady welcomed the 2012 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams to the White House to honor their participation and success in this year's Olympic and Paralympic Games in London. On Tuesday, we released a new video that lets you go behind the scenes and hear from the athletes as they describe their visit. Check it out here.

We also released a video of Paralympian Champion Lt. Brad Snyder sharing his story with First Lady Michelle Obama. "Overcoming adversity is a decision that everyone makes," Brad said, "And you can let that beat you or you can make the decision to move forward." Watch the video here.

Celebrating the 2011 WNBA Champions: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed the Minnesota Lynx to the White House, congratulating them on their successful season and thanking them for continuing to set an important example for young women across the country:

"As the husband of a tall, good-looking woman and as the father of two tall, fabulous girls, it is just wonderful to have these young ladies as role models. There's something about women's athletics -- we know for a fact that when girls are involved in athletics, they do better across the board. They're more confident. They do better in school."

Aung San Suu Kyi at the White House: On Wednesday, President Obama met with Aung San Suu Kyi, Burmese Nobel Laureate and leader of the National League for Democracy Party. The President expressed his admiration for her courage, determination and personal sacrifice in championing democracy and human rights over the years. To learn more, see the full readout of the meeting.

Don't Ask, Don't Tell: Yesterday marked the one year anniversary of “Don't Ask, Don't Tell” finally and formally being repealed, allowing gay and lesbian service members to serve openly in our nation's armed forces. In a statement marking the anniversary, President Obama said that repealing the law “upheld the fundamental American values of fairness and equality.”

President Obama signed repeal into law in December of 2010, and in July of 2011 the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff certified that the Department of Defense had taken all the steps needed to prepare the military for repeal. Sixty days after that, at 12:01 a.m. on September 20, 2011, the era of Don't Ask, Don't Tell was over.

For more information:

National POW/MIA Recognition Day: Today marks the commemoration of National POW/MIA Recognition Day, where the nation honors those service members who endured captivity and whose remains have yet to be recovered. The day serves as a stark reminder of the risks and sacrifices that American service members and their families make every day. It is important that we acknowledge service members and their families. To see how you can support those who serve and our veterans, please visit joiningforces.gov.

You're Invited: This fall, the White House will once again open its gardens and grounds to visitors from across the country, continuing First Lady Michelle Obama's commitment to opening up the White House to as people as possible. To all of our social media followers, we invite you to join the White House Fall Garden Tour with a special tour of the Jacqueline Kennedy GardenRose Garden, and South Lawn, including the White House Kitchen Garden.

Interested in joining? Apply to attend the White House Social Fall Garden Tour today.

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