joi, 3 iulie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Trends in Full-Time Employment vs. Civilian Non-Institutional Population

Posted: 03 Jul 2014 11:04 AM PDT

This month's job report showed a seasonally-adjusted decline in full-time employment of 523,000.

Let's dive a little deeper and look at full-time employment vs. the civilian non-institutional population. The latter is non-seasonally adjusted, yet shows no seasonal variations, so we can compare to seasonally-adjusted employment numbers.

First, let's start with a look at widely-touted gains in employment that show jobs are at an all-time high.

Total NonFarm Employment 2003-2014



Full-Time Employment 2003-2014



Full-time employment was 121,875,000 right at the onset of the recession in November 2007. Today full-time employment is 118,204,000. The difference is 3,671,000.

In the last month, full-time employment declined by 523,000 while voluntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 840,000.  Meanwhile, those wanting full-time employment (but only finding part-time employment) rose by 250,000.

Full-Time Employment 1970-2014



Never before has it taken so long to recover employment back to pre-recession peaks.

Let's look at this another way: How fast is employment growing vs. the rise in population?

Full-Time Employment vs. Civilian Non-Institutional Population



The green line (population minus full-time employment) shows that from the mid-1980s through the start of the recession, full-time employment outpaced population growth. Since then full-time employment has lagged.

Such details shows seemingly good job numbers are nowhere near as good as widely touted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nonfarm Payrolls +288,000, Unemployment Rate 6.1%; Voluntary Part-Time Employment +840,000; Full-Time Employment -523,000

Posted: 03 Jul 2014 09:01 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

On the surface, this appeared to be a very strong jobs report from both the household survey and establishment survey perspective.

The establishment survey reported a gain of 288,000 jobs while the household survey sported a gain in employment of 407,000. In addition, May was revised up from +217,000 to + 224,000, and April revised up from +282,000 to +304,000.

Digging deeper into the details, strength was entirely part-time (and then some).

Voluntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 840,000 and involuntary part-time employment rose by 275,000.

Compared to a total gain of employment of 407,000, the gain in total part-time employment was 1,115,000. I confirmed with the BLS that one cannot directly subtract those numbers because of seasonal reporting.

However, one can compare seasonally-adjusted full-time employment this month to seasonally-adjusted full-time employment last month. Doing so shows a decline in full-time employment of 523,000!

May BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +288,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +407,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -325,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: +275,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +840,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 6.1% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 12.1% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +192,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +81,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +111,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 at 62.8 - Household Survey

Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the past year the working-age population rose by 2,262,000.
  • In the last year the labor force declined by 128,000.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,390,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,146,000 (an average of 178,833 a month)

The working-age population rose by over 2 million, but the labor force declined. People dropping out of the work force accounts for nearly all of the declining unemployment rate.

June 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by employment growth in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and health care.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment January 2003 - June 2014



click on chart for sharper image

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees has been flat for four months at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours.

Average hourly earnings of private workers rose $0.04 to $20.58. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.03 to $20.36.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I keep this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 6.1%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 12.1%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
  5. Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force over the past several years, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


These Actors Went Way Too Far For These Roles

Posted: 02 Jul 2014 09:08 PM PDT

These actors really wanted to make sure they played their character to the best of their ability but some of them just went too far.















9.7 Million Jobs over 52 Straight Months

 
Here's what's going on at the White House today.
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

9.7 Million Jobs over 52 Straight Months

The latest jobs report came out this morning, and we're seeing some encouraging trends:

  • 1.4 million jobs were added in the first half of this year -- the most in any first half since 1999
  • Private employment has increased for 52 consecutive months -- the longest streak on record
  • The unemployment rate has fallen 1.4 percentage points over the past year -- the sharpest year-over-year decline in nearly three decades
  • June marked the fifth straight month that the U.S. has added more than 200,000 jobs

We're making progress, but there's still work to do. Learn more about today's numbers.

Learn more about the latest jobs report.


 
 
  Top Stories

President Obama Calls Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard. Listen In:

The President called U.S. Men's National Team captain Clint Dempsey and goalkeeper Tim Howard to commend them on their team's performance during the 2014 World Cup.

READ MORE

Being Biden Vol. 16: "50 Years Later"

In the latest installment of Being Biden, the Vice President reflects on the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, and shares a photo of himself with Representative John Lewis, Jesse Jackson, and other leaders of the civil rights movement.

READ MORE

The President Heads to D.C.'s Key Bridge to Talk Infrastructure and the Economy

On Tuesday, President Obama talked about infrastructure and the economy, with Washington, D.C.'s Francis Scott Key Bridge serving as the backdrop.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

10:00 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:30 PM: The President and the Vice President meet for lunch

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Josh Earnest


 

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Panda Pummels Press Release Websites: The Road to Recovery

Panda Pummels Press Release Websites: The Road to Recovery


Panda Pummels Press Release Websites: The Road to Recovery

Posted: 02 Jul 2014 04:00 PM PDT

Posted by russvirante

Many of us in the search industry were caught off guard by the release of Panda 4.0. It had become common knowledge that Panda was essentially "baked into" the algorithm now several times a month, so a pronounced refresh was a surprise. While the impact seemed reduced given that it coincided with other releases including a payday loans update and a potential manual penalty on Ebay, there were notable victims of the Panda 4.0 update which included major press release sites. Both Search Engine Land and Seer Interactive independently verified a profound traffic loss on major press release sites following the Panda 4.0 update. While we can't be certain that Google did not, perhaps, roll out a handful of simultaneous manual actions or perhaps these sites were impacted by the payday loans algo update, Panda remains the inference to the best explanation for their traffic losses.

So, what happened? Can we tease out why Press Release sites were seemingly singled out? Are they really that bad? And why are they particularly susceptible to the Panda algorithm? To answer this question, we must first address the main question: what is the Panda algorithm?

Briefly: What is the Panda Algorithm?

The Panda algorithm was a ground-breaking shift in Google's methodology for addressing certain search quality issues. Using patented machine learning techniques, Google used real, human reviewers to determine the quality of a sample set of websites. We call this sample the "training set". Examples of the questions they were asked are below:

  1. Would you trust the information presented in this article?
  2. Is this article written by an expert or enthusiast who knows the topic well, or is it more shallow in nature?
  3. Does the site have duplicate, overlapping, or redundant articles on the same or similar topics with slightly different keyword variations?
  4. Would you be comfortable giving your credit card information to this site?
  5. Does this article have spelling, stylistic, or factual errors?
  6. Are the topics driven by genuine interests of readers of the site, or does the site generate content by attempting to guess what might rank well in search engines?
  7. Does the article provide original content or information, original reporting, original research, or original analysis?
  8. Does the page provide substantial value when compared to other pages in search results?
  9. How much quality control is done on content?
  10. Does the article describe both sides of a story?
  11. Is the site a recognized authority on its topic?
  12. Is the content mass-produced by or outsourced to a large number of creators, or spread across a large network of sites, so that individual pages or sites don't get as much attention or care?
  13. Was the article edited well, or does it appear sloppy or hastily produced?
  14. For a health related query, would you trust information from this site?
  15. Would you recognize this site as an authoritative source when mentioned by name?
  16. Does this article provide a complete or comprehensive description of the topic?
  17. Does this article contain insightful analysis or interesting information that is beyond obvious?
  18. Is this the sort of page you'd want to bookmark, share with a friend, or recommend?
  19. Does this article have an excessive amount of ads that distract from or interfere with the main content?
  20. Would you expect to see this article in a printed magazine, encyclopedia or book?
  21. Are the articles short, unsubstantial, or otherwise lacking in helpful specifics?
  22. Are the pages produced with great care and attention to detail vs. less attention to detail?
  23. Would users complain when they see pages from this site?

Once Google had these answers from real users, they built a list of variables that might potentially predict these answers, and applied their machine learning techniques to build a model of predicting low performance on these questions. For example, having an HTTPS version of your site might predict a high performance on the "trust with a credit card" question. This model could then be applied across their index as a whole, filtering out sites that would likely perform poorly on the questionnaire. This filter became known as the Panda algorithm.

How do press release sites perform on these questions?

First, Moz has a great tutorial on running your own Panda questionnaire on your own website, which is useful not just for Panda but really any kind of user survey. The graphs and data in my analysis come from PandaRisk.com, though. Full disclosure, Virante, Inc., the company for which I work, owns PandaRisk. The graphs were built by averaging the results from several pages on each press release site, so they represent a sample of pages from each PR distributor.

So, let's dig in. In the interest of brevity, I have chosen to highlight just four of the major concerns that came from the surveys, question-by-question.

Q1. Does this site contain insightful analysis?

Google wants to send users to web pages that are uniquely useful, not just unique and not just useful. Unfortunately, press release sites uniformly fail on this front. On average, only 50% of reviewers found that BusinessWire.com content contained insightful analysis. Compare this to Wikipedia, EDU and Government websites which, on average, score 84%, 79% and 94% respectively, and you can see why Google might choose not to favor their content.

But does this have to be the case? Of course not. Press release websites like BusinessWire.com have first mover status on important industry information. They should be the first to release insightful analysis. Now, press release sites do have to be careful about editorializing the content of their users, but there are clearly improvements that could be made. For example, we know that use of structured data and visual aids improves performance on this question (ie: graphs and charts). BusinessWire could extract stock exchange symbols from press releases and include graphs and data related to the business right in the post. This would separate their content from other press release sites that simply reproduce the content verbatim. There are dozens of other potential improvements that can be added either programmatically or by an editor. So, what exactly would these kinds of changes look like?

In this case, we simply inserted a graph from stock exchange data and included on the right-hand side some data from Freebase on the Securities and Exchange Commission, which could easily be extracted as an entity from the documentation using, for example, Alchemy API. These modest improvements to the page increased the "insightful analysis" review score by 15%. 

Q2. Would you trust this site with your credit card?

This is one of the most difficult ideals to measure up to. E-Commerce sites, in general, perform better automatically, but there are clear distinctions between sites people trust and don't trust. Press release websites do have an e-commerce component, so one would expect them to fare comparatively well to non-commercial sites. Unfortunately, this is just not the case. PR.com failed this question in what can only be described as epic fashion. 91% of users said they would not trust the site with their credit card details. This isn't just a Panda issue for PR.com, this is a survival-of-the-business issue. 

Luckily, there are some really clear, straight-forward solutions to this address this problem. 

  • Extend HTTPS/SSL Sitewide
    Not every site needs to have HTTPS enabled, but if you have a 600,000+ page site with e-commerce functionality, let's just go ahead and assume you do. Users will immediately trust your site more if they see that pretty little lock icon in their browser. 
  • Site Security Solutions
    Take advantage of solutions like Comodo Hacker Proof or McAfee SiteAdvisor to verify that your site is safe and secure. Include the badges and link to them so that both users and the bots know that you have a safe site.
  • Business Reputation Badges
    Use at least one trade group or business reputation group (like the better business bureau) or, at minimum, employ some form of schema review markup that makes it clear to your users that at least some person or group of persons out there trusts your site. If you use a trade group membership or the BBB, make sure you link to them so that, once again, it is clear to the bots as well as your users.
  • Up-to-date Design
    This is a clear issue time and time again. In the technology world, old means insecure. The site PR.com looks old-fashioned by all measures of the word, especially in comparison to the other press release websites. It is no wonder that it performs so horribly.

It is worth pointing out here that Google doesn't need to find markup on your site to come to the conclusion that your site is untrustworthy. Because the Panda algorithm likely takes into account engagement metrics and behaviors (like pogo sticking), Google can use the behavior of users to predict the performance on these questions. So, even if there isn't a clear path between a change you make on your site and Googlebot's ability to identify that change doesn't mean the change cannot and will not have an impact on site performance in the search results. The days of thinking about your users and the bots as separate audiences are gone. The bots now measure both your site and your audience. Your impact on users can and will have an impact on search performance.

Q3. Do you consider this site an authority?

This question is particularly difficult for sites that both don't control the content they create and have a wide variety of content. This places press release websites squarely in the bullseye of the Panda algorithm. How does a website that accepts thousands of press releases on nearly any topic dare claim to be an authority? Well, it generally doesn't, and the numbers bear that out. 75% of respondents wouldn't consider PRNewswire an authority. 

Notice, though, that Wikipedia performs poorly on this metric as well (at least compared to EDUs and GOVs). So what exactly is going on here? How can a press release site hope to escape from this authority vacuum? 

  • Topically Segment Content
    This was one of the very first reactions to Panda. Many of the sites that were hit with Panda 1.0 sub-domained their content into particular topic areas. This seemed to provide some relief but was never a complete or permanent solution. Whether you segment your content into sub-directories or sub-domains, what you are really doing here is helping make clear to your users that the specific content your users are reading is part of a bigger piece of the pie. It isn't some random page on your site, it fits in nicely with your website's stated aims. 
  • Create an Authority
    Just because you don't write the content for your site doesn't mean you can't be authoritative. In fact, most major press release websites have some degree of editorial oversight sitting between the author and the website. That editorial layer needs to be bolstered and exposed to the end user, making it obvious that the website does more than simply regurgitate the writing of anyone with a few bucks. 

So, what exactly would this look like? Let's return to the Businesswire press release we were looking at earlier. We started with a bland page comprised of almost nothing but the press release. We then added a graph and some structured data automagically. Now, we want to add in some editor creds and topic segmentation.

Notice in the new design that we have created the "Securities & Investment Division", added an editor with a fancy title "Business Desk Editor" and a credentialed by-line. You could even use authorship publisher markup. The page no longer looks like a sparse press release but an editorially managed piece of news content in a news division dedicated to this subject matter. Authority done.

Q4. Would you consider bookmarking/sharing this site?

When I look at this question, I am baffled. Seriously, how do you make a site in which you don't control the content worth bookmarking or sharing? Furthermore, how do you do this with overtly commercial, boring content like press releases? As you could imagine, press release sites fair quite poorly on this. Over 85% of respondents said they weren't interested at all in bookmarking or sharing content from PRWeb.com. And why should they? 

So, how exactly does a press release website encourage users to share? The most common recommendations are already in place on PRWeb. They are quite overt with the usage of social sharing and bookmarking buttons (placed right at the top of the content). Their content is constantly fresh because new press releases come out every day. If these techniques aren't working, then what will?

The problem with bookmarking and sharing on press release websites is two-fold. First, the content is overtly commercial so users don't want to share it unless the press release is about something truly interesting. Secondly, the content is ephemeral so users don't want to return to it. We have to solve both of these problems.

Unfortunately, I think the answer to this question is some tough medicine for press release websites. The solution is multi-faceted. It starts with putting a meta expires tag on press releases. Sorry, but there is no reason for PRWeb to maintain a 2009 press release about a business competition in the search results. In its place, though, should be company and/or categorical pages which thoughtfully index and organize archived content. While LumaDerm may lose their press release from 2009, they would instead have a page on the site dedicated to their press releases so that the content is still accessible, albeit one click away, and the search engines know to ignore it. With this solution, the pages that end up ranking in the long run for valuable words and phrases are the aggregate pages that truly do offer authoritative information on what is up-and-coming with the business. The page is sticky because it is updated as often as the business releases new information, you still get some of the shares out of new releases but you don't risk the problems of PR sprawl and crawl prioritization. Aside from the initial bump of fresh content, there is no good SEO reason to keep old press releases in the index.

So, I don't own a press release site...

Most of us don't run sites with thousands of pages of low quality content. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be cognizant of Panda. Of all of Google's search updates, Panda is the one I respect the most. I respect it because it is an honest attempt to measure quality. It doesn't ask how you got to your current position in the search results (a classic genetic fallacy problem), it simply asks whether the page and site itself deserve that ranking based on human quality measures (as imperfect as it may be at doing so). Most importantly, even if Google didn't exist at all, you should aspire to have a website that scores well on all of these metrics. Having a site that performs well on the Panda questions means more than insulation from a particular algorithm update, it means having a site that performs well for your users. That is a site you want to have.

Take a look again at the questionnaire. Does your site honestly meet these standards? Ask someone unbiased. If your site does, then congratulations - you have an amazing site. But if not, it is time to get to work building the site that you were meant to build.


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