marți, 5 iulie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


SEO 101 for Travel Bloggers

Posted: 04 Jul 2011 05:26 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Several weekends ago, for the first time, I accompanied my wife, Geraldine (aka Everywhereist, whose blog was just placed on Time.com's Top 25 Blogs of 2011 and then on Forbes' Top 10 Lifestyle Sites; woo hoo!), to Vancouver, BC for a professional conference focused on her career rather than mine (TBEX - the Travel Bloggers Exchange). Given that she's attended countless sessions on SEO, analytics, tech startups and scalable SaaS models, I figured it was the least I could do.

Jennifer Miner, Speaking about SEO for Travel Blogs at TBEX 2011

I only attended a few sessions, but one of the most crowded and exciting (for me) was a discussion on SEO run by Jennifer Miner of Vacation Gals (pictured above). I was amazed by the large percentage of the attendees who chose the SEO session over several others that sounded quite tempting and could only conclude that SEO was, indeed, of interest and importance to these tech-savvy travel writers.

Honestly, Jen rocked it. She didn't have slides, but she gave a genuine, heartwarming and information-packed session. For me, it was a wonderful opportunity to empathize with her audience and remember what it's like to look at the SEO world with a mixture of fear, awe and confusion, and I want to pay it forward by sharing my advice and experience with SEO, specifically geared to travel bloggers (though possibly of interest to lots of others relatively new to the field).


SEO 101 for Travel Bloggers: Topics

Setting Up Your Site for Success

One of the first choices you have as a blogger is where to start writing. There are lots of options, but nearly everyone agrees that if you want to take your blog seriously, you should follow a process like this:

  1. Get your own domain name through a certified registrar. I like Dreamhost or BulkRegister personally (just $11/year for .com domains), but there's loads of good options. 
  2. Host the site yourself. Folks like Dreamhost, Page.ly, Squarespace and Laughing Squid are worth checking out. One I've not tried, but heard amazing things about is WP Engine. They'd probably get my vote if you've got the $49/month to spend and are more serious about your blog's growth.
  3. Get a great designer or learn to make something beautiful yourself. Good places to find designers include Dribbble, Forrst, Sortfolio, ElegantThemes, ThemeForest and 99Designs (Note: there's some controversy in the design community about the crowdsourced model of 99 Designs, but you should make up your own mind).
  4. Choose a blog platform (aka the software that powers your blog). Wordpress, Posterous and Tumblr are all worth looking into - if you're a bit more adventurous, B2Evolution is interesting, too. I wouldn't choose Blogger/Blogspot for a variety of reasons too lengthy to go into here.

Alternatively, you could setup a site in 3 minutes flat on a subdomain of Wordpress (e.g. mytravelblog.wordpress.com), choose an pre-existing theme, don't customize the design/look and just start writing. But, that minimal effort also costs you many of the benefits - flexibility, the possibility to grow, optimization potential, monetization opportunities, etc - that come with a little more elbow grease.

Blogger's SETAPR Graph

If travel blogging is something you want to do not only as a personal endeavor, but as a professional one as well (whether you hope to eventually have ads, make money, or you simply wish to move beyond a hobby-site that is technically owned by another company), you'll need your own domain. That may sound a bit daunting, but all of the above can be done in less than a day, even if you're completely non-technical. If you're feeling overwhelmed, Page.ly might be the easiest of the bunch to handle 90%+ of this.

From here, you just need one more critical thing - analytics (aka a way to measure how much traffic you get, where it comes from and what people do on your site). Fortunately, there's an easy answer: Google Analytics. It's free, it's simple to install (one-click or plugin with most of the blog platforms I noted above) and it works wonderfully.

Everywhereist's Google Analytics

If you're looking to get much more serious about tracking + improving everything around your site, read this post - Launching a New Website: 18 Steps to Successful Metrics + Marketing.

What's a Keyword? And Why Do I Need to Worry About Them?

When people go to Google, they search for things. As of June 2011, more than 3 billion searches happen every day on Google (and lots happen on Bing + Yahoo!, too). A good portion of those people are searching for information about travel, and if you build your site right and do a bit of what SEOs call "keyword research" (figuring out what people search for and how) along with "keyword targeting" (using those words and phrases in smart places on your pages), you can earn positions in the search rankings and get lots of high quality, valuable visitors coming to your site.

Shops of Covent Garden SERPs

For example, in the search I've done above, you can see that Geraldine's post - The Shops of Covent Garden, London - is ranking in position 5. On average, about 5% of searchers for that query will likely click on her page. If there's 100 searches for that phrase each month, Geraldine will get 5 extra visits to her site every month. If she wrote 5 blog posts every day that performed like this, in a few years she'd have some pretty amazing traffic. And, of course, if she got to ranking #1 or #2 for some of those keywords or ranked #5 for things people search for 1,000 times each month, that could be even more exciting.

In the SEO world, we call the search words and phrases that people type into Google and Bing "keywords," and we do our best to understand what people are searching for, build great pages that would make those searchers happy and try to rank high in the results to earn as many of those clicks as possible. The first part of that - understanding what people are searching for, is the critical part of "keyword research." Here's how you do that:

AdWords Screenshot

(sadly, this isn't the best example, because there's so few searches for the phrase, but you get the idea)

The screenshot above comes from Google's AdWords Keyword Tool. It's the best known keyword research tool on the web, and is likely the only one you'll need as a travel blogger unless you become very advanced at SEO. There's a few important things to understand about the tool, so I've made some notations with red numbers:

  1. This is where you enter the words to describe what you're writing about. You can use one or two words or try to be more specific. The words Google suggests will be based on what you enter here.
  2. For travel bloggers, I generally would recommend that you use the language you'll be writing in, but don't exclude any countries. Travelers search from all over the world! Don't just limit your keyword research to the United States.
  3. This is very important, even if it seems a bit complex at first. The "match type" refers to the suggestions Google will give you, and if you're not careful, this can really throw you for a loop. Basically, "exact match" is what you want most of the time (but it's not checked by default, so be sure to do that!). Exact match means that Google will only show you the keywords and search volume for that particular keyword phrase. If you use broad match or phrase match, you'll often see a much higher volume of searches, but it doesn't mean that this quantity of people actually performed that search. You can learn more about match types here.
  4. Here's your data! Looking at these keyword "suggestions" you can see what Google knows about that people search for around these keywords and how many people are performing those searches globally. The "competition" column doesn't matter too much for you here - it refers to the number of advertisers who bid against a keyword and how much they pay, but since you'll be targeting the "free" or "organic" searches, you don't need to worry about these.
  5. Google will also give some keyword "ideas" that relate to your search terms, but don't match them exactly. This can be handy for finding opportunities of things to write about or what to title your posts.

When it comes to the AdWords Keyword Tool, I recommend you play around with it - experiment, have fun, see what different clicks and buttons do, the works! Just remember - the numbers Google reports are, relatively speaking, accurate, but not precise. So, if Google says that keyword 1 has 100 searches/month and keyword 2 has 200/month, that doesn't mean that precisely that many people search each month for those words. But, it does probably mean that keyword 2 gets about twice as many searches as keyword 1.

OK. You know how to see what people search for and now you're ready to start writing some posts to earn some of those rankings and get some visitors. But, what do you actually do with those keywords?

Use them smartly in your blog posts!

Covent Garden Page Example

I've got an entire post dedicated to best practices for using keywords in your pages, but the simple rule of thumb is:

  • Make the important keyword phrase the first words in your blog post's title (if possible)
  • Use other relevant, important and/or identifying keywords in the title (for example, Geraldine's post on this topic was wisely labeled, The Shops of Covent Garden, London - both to indicate its location and because people might search for "covent garden shops, london")
  • Make the headline of the piece/page match the title (searchers don't like to click on one thing and get another!)
  • Use the keyword phrase and other important keywords in the content of the post - don't stuff or spam them in unnaturally, just try to include them where relevant and appropriate
  • If you can, make your URLs (this thing - http://www.everywhereist.com/the-shops-of-covent-garden-london/) use the keyword as well. This is pretty easy to do in Wordpress and most other blog platforms 

That's it! That's really all you need to do on the keyword front. If you need it in once sentence, it's this:

Find the words and phrases people use to search and include them prominently in the blog posts you write. 

If you've done that, you're well on your way to good SEO.

I Don't Want to Write for SEO; I Want to Write Great Stories!

You should! SEO, done right, should never interfere with great writing. In fact, hopefully, it can help, by giving you a spark of imagination or inspiration about what readers want, how they think and where the core of their quest to discover new things begins. I've heard some SEOs and even some travel bloggers tell others that writing for SEO is different than writing for an audience. They'll say you need to stuff keywords in and write "on-topic" rather than rambling off on tangents and telling funny anecdotes.

I disagree. Great writing and great content of all kinds is at the heart of great SEO.

I'll illustrate:

Great Writing Works!

The same things that make for "great" writing and a "great" blog are the things that will propel you to success in the SEO world. Perhaps the only ingredients you wouldn't normally be aware of as a fantastic writer are the ideas of keyword research and an accessible site (which we covered above).

That said, there are a couple issues to think about when it comes to travel writing, blogs and SEO. The first is how to make SEO work with narrative vs. non-narrative writing. For this, I'll use Geraldine's blog again as a good example, since her work is primarily narrative - it tells a story - rather than non-narrative like a travel guide to a specific location.

Everywhereist Narrative Blog Post

The post (An SF Experiment: Leaving My Bag Behind) isn't particularly good for SEO. And THAT'S OK! Not every post needs to be carefully targeted toward perfect keywords in an effort to drive additional traffic. If you can do it with 2/3 or even 1/3 blog posts, that's terrific. And it's pretty much how Geraldine does it, too (though I only recently convinced her to even try keyword research at all).

Eataly on Everywhereist

This post (New York's Eataly Market, Reviewed), although it does technically review the market, goes off on long tangents, includes humorous anecdotes and generally has a fun time with the subject matter. It's not a list of recommendations or an expository, tightly written review with facts and data - it's a narrative review. And yet...

SERPs at Google for New York Eataly

You most certainly CAN use a narrative voice and still rank quite well, even for fairly competitive searches.

The second issue is a thorny one - how to deal with "Evergreen" vs. "Temporal" content. Evergreen content is stuff that doesn't go stale (or at least, that you don't want to go stale). It's intended to be relevant for years, maybe even decades. Think Hemingway on Spain or Bill Bryson on Britain. Temporal content, on the other hand, is best when it's just released and gets less useful over time (e.g. most technology news reporting is this way).

When you're blogging, posts naturally have a date/timestamp of when they're released. After that, they begin to go stale and readers looking at a post on a particular restaurant, tourist location or even a city may wonder how much is still relevant 6 months or years later. This is a good reason to consider, potentially, creating "pages" or "articles" or "guides" that live on as evergreen content and sit separately from your main blog. For example, Karen Brown's Italy Travel Guide is an evergreen resource while the Vacation Gals' Best Romantic Honeymoon Destinations page is temporal... But, it could be evergreen if they changed it from a blog post to a standalone page and updated it annually (and then changed the title to include the year, e.g. Best Romantic Honeymoon Destinations 2011).

What's the Deal with Links?

Search engines don't just rely on the text content and keywords you put in your pages (although, back in the mid-late 1990's they used to). They also care about what other people say about you. Hence, they look at all the sites and pages on the Internet to see who might be linking to your site and your individual posts. A blog with lots of other sites linking to it is likely to be considered more important and more worthy of ranking well than a blog few others have recognized and referenced. For this reason, earning good links from other good sites is a critical part of SEO - but, of course, it's not just good for SEO, it's great for your traffic, growing your brand and building awareness amongst non-readers.

There's a few key concepts to understand about links that I'll walk through.

The first of these is something called "anchor text." It refers to the words/phrases that web pages use when linking to one another. For example, if I link to this photo of a sunset with an ant holding a twig, I've just helped to tell Google + Bing what the photo on that page is about. It's now more likely that if someone searches for "sunset with ant and twig," that page might appear in the results. It would, of course, be much better if the page also had text on it that the engines could read, but that's not the point here. I'm merely trying to illustrate that how we link - in particular, the words we use in links, matters for search engines, so we should think carefully about them.

The big takeaway for most travel bloggers is that getting links that include words describing your post are often better than links that just have your blog's name or say something generic like "click here."

There's also an issue that came up quite a lot at the TBEX conference around "homepage vs. deep links." I think there might be some misconceptions here, so I'll try to illustrate what this means:

Homepage vs. Deep Links

The link to the "home page" is certainly a good thing, and travel bloggers shouldn't be worried if their homepages earn lots of links. Often, the vast majority of a site's links will point to this page, and that's fine. However, it can be quite valuable to earn "deep links" like the one to the "Driving in Manhattan" post above. These links help pass good signals about individual pages, as well as the site, to the search engines. One isn't necessarily "better" though deep links are often less common and therefore more prized. But, it really depends on the quality of the linking source (is it a good site?) and whether it's doing other good things like sending traffic and good anchor text.

Finally, let's talk about "Followed" vs. "Nofollowed" links:

Followed vs. Nofollowed Links

 

The basic concept is that some links exist on the web that search engines don't want to trust (especially spam in comments, forums or other open areas of websites). There's a special tag called rel="nofollow" that can be applied to the HTML code of any link to make search engines ignore it for ranking purposes. I highly recommend you use this in your blog's comments (or they can be overrun by spam that might even make Google/Bing frown on you). By default, most blogging platforms already do.

Oh! And last, but not least, if you're looking for some great ideas around building links, check out the link building category on this blog, and read the Beginner's Guide to SEO section on Link Building as well as Yoast.com's Link Building 101.

Are Twitter, Facebook and All the Social Stuff Worthwhile?

Almost certainly and almost always, the answer is "yes!" Classifying exactly how and precisely how much is a more challenging question, but search engines like Google and Bing do access some forms of data from Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Google's new Google+ (to be honest, Google doesn't use too much directly from Facebook and Bing probably isn't using much from Google+, but you get the idea).

Everywhereist's Tweet
Sharing links on Twitter may have a direct positive impact, and an indirect one, too.

But, even if/when the search engines aren't directly taking signals from Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Google+, etc. these networks are helping to spread the word about your site and your content. Using them to promote your posts in organic, natural, useful ways is a great thing, and you should almost certainly invest some effort trying out these networks and discovering whether your blog is a fit. Twitter in particular has been a huge driver of traffic for Geraldine's blog, so I suspect there's value there for many other travel blogs. Facebook has been good, too. LinkedIn, less so, but this is likely because it's geared toward a business + career focused audience. If your site caters to business travelers, you could well have a great match there.


I know I'm biased due to my marriage, but I also love to travel, meet new people and read great expository and narrative writing (both of which I'm terrible at). I hope this post can help some aspiring travel bloggers to grow their audiences and bring more visits to the amazing world of travel writing.

If you have questions, feel free to post them in the comments below and I'll do my best to help out!


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What would you #AskObama?

The White House Tuesday, July 5, 2011
 

What would you #AskObama?

Tomorrow's event has the White House all a-Twitter.

At 2pm EDT, President Obama will participate in the first Twitter town hall at the White House to discuss the economy and jobs with Americans across the country. The entire event will be streamed live at WhiteHouse.gov/live.

Right now, thousands of people are talking about the event and asking questions on Twitter, using the #AskObama hashtag. Take a moment to join the conversation and ask your own question.

Don't know what a Twitter hashtag is, or where to start? We've put together an overview of the event and a link to some more information about how to get started from Twitter here:


Don’t forget: @ 2pm EDT tomorrow, head over to WhiteHouse.gov/live to watch President Obama and this exciting event. 

P.S. If you are on Twitter and can't make the town hall tomorrow, take a moment to "follow" @WhiteHouse. It's a great way to stay current with what's happening in the Obama Administration. And if you'd like to contact the White House, but don't use Twitter, you can always use the form at WhiteHouse.gov/Contact.

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Behind-the-Scenes Video: Salute The Troops Independence Day Celebration

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
 

Behind-the-Scenes Video: Salute The Troops Independence Day Celebration

Last night, the First Family celebrated the Fourth of July by hosting more than 1,200 military heroes and their families for a barbeque, a USO show featuring Train and Amos Lee, and an extraordinary view of national capital fireworks from the South Lawn. 

See behind-the-scenes video of the event.



The President and the First Lady watch the fireworks over the National Mall (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Happy 4th from @VP
The Office of the Vice President launched an official Twitter account – @VP – with a call from Vice President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden asking all Americans to remember our troops and military families on Independence Day. 

Weekly Address: Cutting the Deficit and Creating Jobs
President Obama addresses the need to reduce the nation's deficit while creating jobs across the country and wishes Americans a happy Fourth of July.

What You Can Do to Support Military Families
The First Lady sends a message to the White House email list, wishing them a Happy Independence Day and encouraging all Americans to honor our brave men and women in uniform by volunteering to give back to military families.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:15 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

11:30 AM: The President and the Vice President meet with Ambassador Crocker and Lieutenant General Allen

12:30 PM: Press briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:30 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Panetta

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.Gov/Live

Get Updates 

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Seth's Blog : Paying attention to the attention economy

Paying attention to the attention economy

Most of us are happily obsessed with the economy of money. We earn it and we spend it and we generally pay attention to what things cost.

Certainly, salespeople and marketers are truly focused on the price of things, on commissions and shelving allowances and net margin and the cost of goods sold.

With all of these easily measured activity, it's easy to overlook the fast-growing and ever more important economy based around attention.

"If I alert my entire customer base, how much will this cost me in permission?"

"How much time do we save our customers with a better written manual?"

"When we fail to ask for (and reward) the privilege of following up, are we wasting permission?"

"Does launching this product to an audience of stangers waste the attention we're going to have to buy?"

Attention is a bit like real estate, in that they're not making any more of it. Unlike real estate, though, it keeps going up in value.

 

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luni, 4 iulie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


S&P Warns Greek Bailout Plan Constitutes Default; Greece at Risk of Missing June Target; Spoon Feeding will Continue Until Greece Dies

Posted: 04 Jul 2011 11:52 AM PDT

Before receiving the next bailout tranche, Greece May Have Missed June Primary Balance Target
Greece is at risk of missing a key budget target in June, European Union experts said in a report, a sign of the uphill struggle the country faces as it tries to get its deficit reduction plans back on track.

The report, prepared by European Commission budget experts with input from European Central Bank officials and published over the weekend, says that Greece could miss its June target for its primary budget balance, a measure of the government deficit that excludes interest payments on outstanding debt.

Government revenue faces "significant" shortfalls that have only partially been offset by lower spending and delayed payments, the report says. "As a result, the quarterly performance criterion on the primary balance could be missed already in June."
Spoon Feeding will Continue Regardless of Shortfalls

Short of telling the ECB, EU, and IMF to go to hell, nothing will stop the Plan to Spoon-Feed Greece to Death
The original bailout was 110 billion Euros, now it takes another $85 billion (and counting). When the fire sale of Greek assets does not bring in enough money, the banks and IMF will place even harsher terms on Greece.

Notice the plan to spoon-feed payments to Greece in 12 billion-euro bites while demanding "progress". This will ensure Greece is sucked dry (at fire sale prices) of any government assets worth owning by the time the "bailout" is over.

Portugal, and Ireland should make note of the process. The same "bailout" plan will be used on them unless they tell the IMF and EU to go to hell.
French Plan to "Save Greece" Constitutes Default

The New York Times reports S.&P. Warns Bank Plan Would Cause Greek Default
Greece risks being judged in default on its debt obligations if banks are forced to bear part of the pain, Standard & Poor's said Monday, suggesting that current proposals for rescuing the euro zone's weakest member may have to be reconsidered.

In particular, a plan proposed by the French government and banks "could require private sector debt restructuring in a form that we would view as an effective default," S.&P. said in a statement.

The rating agency also said it was cutting its long-term rating on Greece three notches deeper into junk territory, to CCC from B.

A finding by the credit ratings agencies of default would also require the E.C.B. to impose discounts, known as haircuts, on the Greek debt it has accepted as collateral. That would inflict more financial pain on banks holding that debt.

Euro-zone finance ministers agreed over the weekend to provide Athens with financing of €8.7 billion, or $12.6 billion, from the €110 billion bailout agreed to last year, to help the Greek government function through the summer. The new aid eliminates the prospect of a near-term default.

But the finance ministers put off the question of how to provide a second bailout, reportedly valued at up to €90 billion, to keep the country operating through 2014, when it is hoped that Greece will be able to return to the credit markets.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, announced June 27 that French banks had agreed to a plan under which the banks would reinvest most of the proceeds of their holdings of Greek debt maturing between now and 2014 back into new long-term Greek securities.

But Standard & Poor's said Monday that it "views certain types of debt exchanges and similar restructurings as equivalent to a payment default": when a transaction is seen as "distressed rather than purely opportunistic" and when it results "in investors receiving less value than the promise of the original securities."

Both conditions would appear to be met by the French proposal, it said.
Rating Agency Rollover Default Conditions

  1. It's a default if rollovers are distressed rather that opportunistic.
  2. It's a default if "investors receiving less value than the promise of the original securities"

Point number one deals with the "voluntary" nature of the dealing. If banks roll over debt under duress, fearing bigger losses if they don't, the rating agencies will not consider that a "voluntary" rollover.

Even if a voluntary rollover can be constructed, condition number two must still be satisfied. I fail to see how that is possible, at least without destroying Greece.

Making Sense of the French Rollover Plan

There is a nice article on Zero Hedge by Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors called Making Sense of the French Rollover Plan
The French proposal is slightly complex at best and convoluted at worst. Before digging into the specifics, let's look at what a true rollover would look like. If Participants agreed with Greece to extend the maturity AND reduce the coupon AND do it immediately, that would be a clear example of a rollover that benefited Greece.

There are 3 key elements to a real rollover. The first is that they would agree to the rollover now. That would take away uncertainty. The maturity extension is the rollover, and the longer it is delayed, the better for Greece. The coupon on the new debt should be lower than the coupon Greece is currently paying. If all 3 of these criteria are met, and the new bonds are pari passu with the existing bonds, then I think everyone would agree that Greece benefits, the Troika would benefit, and the Participants would have made a sacrifice.
We need to stop right there. What Tchir says is true, but since when is the plan to benefit Greece? Moreover, even if the plan was to benefit Greece, notice the key phrase "the Participants would have made a sacrifice. "

A sacrifice implies "investors receive less value than the promise of the original securities". That in turn implies default, at least to the rating agencies.

Tchir continues ...
The French proposal, as we will see, potentially does not satisfy any of the 3 aspects listed – it is not immediate, the coupon will be higher than existing debt, and the maturity extension is linked to taking some debt out of the market, so it's not as clearly a benefit as the headlines make it seem.

The ISDA credit derivative definitions for a Restructuring Credit Event have to meet 2 tests. The first part of the test is straightforward and is met if bonds are extended, or the coupon is reduced, for example. This condition would be met. The second condition is effectively that it is involuntary. If the actions of some bondholders can force other bondholders into an agreement then this condition would be met and there would be a CDS Credit Event. In the case of Greek bonds, that looks unlikely. I have only looked at the offering circulars from a couple of bonds, but there does not appear to by anything that could force a bondholder to change the terms of the debt. There is no reason, that on a €1 billion issue, €950 million could be exchanged and €50 million could remain outstanding. If that is the case, then there would be no CDS Credit Event under this true rollover.
The rating agencies have taken the position (right or wrong), that if a rollover is done under duress, the rollover is not voluntary.

However, Tchir goes on to say "The Rating Agencies can be largely ignored".

The plan as it stands is complicated. Tchir does his best to explain it by comparing the rollover to 30 year mortgages.
The Participants are not lending to Greece for 30 years, the duration is much shorter, and the coupon payments start out potentially high, and become usurious in the later years.

The structure is designed in a such a way to make it look like the Participants are being helpful – 30 years at a low coupon, but separating the SPV into its zero coupon component and the loan to Greece clearly demonstrate that the terms being offered to Greece are far worse than the headlines that the Participants are selling to the public.

I would be surprised if Greece agrees to the loan terms as included in the French proposal and wonder if they have even been consulted?
Greece has had no say in this for the simple reason the plan is not to save Greece, but rather save the French banks who are most on hook should Greece default.

It will be interesting to see if the plan changes now that the S&P has warned the French plan for Greece constitute default. Even if the plan is modified, I do not see how it can be modified to meet the "voluntary" rollover criteria of the rating agencies.

Unless Tchir is correct that the rating agencies truly are irrelevant, something has to give.

Actually, something has to give anyway. The situation in Greece is so dire, and the economy, politics and riots so messy that Greece is going to default sooner or later anyway.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


"Jobless and Wageless" Recovery in Pictures; Trends in Jobs and Wage Growth

Posted: 04 Jul 2011 09:51 AM PDT

Please consider a collections of charts from The "Jobless and Wageless" Recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Annotations in red (where present)are by me.

GDP 2007 Q4 - 2011 Q1



GDP made a new high but look at the amount of US fiscal stimulus from Congress, monetary stimulus from the Fed, and global stimulus especially China, that it took to achieve that.

Nonfarm Jobs



Total Civilian Employment



By the "end" of the recession the US economy shed 7 million nonfarm jobs and 6 million civilian jobs. Since the official end of the recession, there has been a small net loss of both nonfarm jobs and civilian jobs.

Mean Weekly Private Sector Hours



Mean weekly hours have risen by .5 hours since the recession ended but are still .2 hours below the start of the recession.

Change in Civilian Jobs vs. Prior Recessions 7 Quarters Later



Private Sector Real Hourly Earnings in Constant 201o Dollars



Thanks to the Fed specifically and central bankers in general, real wages are below where they were when the recession ended.

Real Median Weekly Earnings Full-Time Wage and Salary Employees in Constant 2010 Dollars



Trends in Annualized Wage and Salary Accruals CPI-U Adjusted 2010 Dollars



Annualized Value of Corporate Profits in Constant 2010 Dollars



Snip from the report ....

"To date, through the first quarter of 2011, the nation's recovery from the 2007-2009 recession is both a jobless and a wageless recovery. Aggregate employment still has not increased above the trough quarter of 2009, and real hourly and weekly wages have been flat to modestly negative. The only major beneficiaries of the recovery have been corporate profits and the stock market and its shareholders. Most holders of savings and money market accounts also are net losers due to declining real interest rates which have been in negative territory for many interest bearing and money market accounts."

There are more charts, tables and commentary in the 23 page PDF report.

Given the global economy is clearly weakening (disregarding inventory building and the latest US manufacturing ISM numbers), there is every reason to believe the jobless, wageless, "state of affairs" will last.

Notice I called it "state of affairs". The recovery, if that is what one wants to call what we had, is on its last legs.

For a look at the latest manufacturing ISM numbers and trends in other countries, please see Manufacturing ISM Weaker Than it Looks; Digging Into the Numbers; Inventory Restocking Accounts for Much of the Rise

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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