luni, 10 septembrie 2012

Common Technical SEO Problems and How to Solve Them

Common Technical SEO Problems and How to Solve Them


Common Technical SEO Problems and How to Solve Them

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 08:04 PM PDT

Posted by Paddy_Moogan

I love technical SEO (most of the time). However, it can be frustrating to come across the same site problems over and over again. In the years I've been doing SEO, I'm still surprised to see so many different websites suffering from the same issues.  

This post outlines some of the most common problems I've encountered when doing site audits, along with some not-so-common ones at the end. Hopefully the solutions will help you when you come across these issues, because chances are that you will at some point!
 

1. Uppercase vs Lowercase URLs

From my experience, this problem is most common on websites that use .NET. The problem stems from the fact that the server is configured to respond to URLs with uppercase letters and not to redirect or rewrite to the lowercase version.  
 
I will admit that recently, this problem hasn't been as common as it was because generally, the search engines have gotten much better at choosing the canonical version and ignoring the duplicates. However, I've seen too many instances of search engines not always doing this properly, which means that you should make it explicit and not rely on the search engines to figure it out for themselves.
 
How to solve:
 
There is a URL rewrite module which can help solve this problem on IIS 7 servers. The tool has a nice option within the interface that allows you to enforce lowercase URLs. If you do this, a rule will be added to the web config file which will solve the problem.
 
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

2.  Multiple versions of the homepage

Again, this is a problem I've encountered more with .NET websites, but it can happen quite easily on other platforms. If I start a site audit on a site which I know is .NET, I will almost immediately go and check if this page exists:
 
www.example.com/default.aspx
 
The verdict? It usually does! This is a duplicate of the homepage that the search engines can usually find via navigation or XML sitemaps.
 
Other platforms can also generate URLs like this:
 
www.example.com/index.html
www.example.com/home
 
I won't get into the minor details of how these pages are generated because the solution is quite simple. Again, modern search engines can deal with this problem, but it is still best practice to remove the issue in the first place and make it clear.
 
How to solve:
 
Finding these pages can be a bit tricky as different platforms can generate different URL structures, so the solution can be a bit of a guessing game. Instead, do a crawl of your site, export the crawl into a CSV, filter by the META title column, and search for the homepage title. You'll easily be able to find duplicates of your homepage.
 
I always prefer to solve this problem by adding a 301 redirect to the duplicate version of the page which points to the correct version. You can also solve the issue by using the rel=canonical tag, but I stand by a 301 redirect in most cases.
 
Another solution is to conduct a site crawl using a tool like Screaming Frog to find internal links pointing to the duplicate page. You can then go in and edit the duplicate pages so they point directly to the correct URL, rather than having internal links going via a 301 and losing a bit of link equity.
 
Additional tip - you can usually decide if this is actually a problem by looking at the Google cache of each URL. If Google hasn't figured out the duplicate URLs are the same, you will often see different PageRank levels as well as different cache dates.
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

3. Query parameters added to the end of URLs

This problem tends to come up most often on eCommerce websites that are database driven. There of a chance of occurrence on any site, but the problem tends to be bigger on eCommerce websites as there are often loads of product attributes and filtering options such as colour, size, etc. Here is an example from Go Outdoors (not a client):
 
 
In this case, the URLs users click on are relatively friendly in terms of SEO, but quite often you can end up with URLs such as this:
 
www.example.com/product-category?colour=12
 
This example would filter the product category by a certain colour. Filtering in this capacity is good for users but may not be great for search, especially if customers do not search for the specific type of product using colour. If this is the case, this URL is not a great landing page to target with certain keywords.
 
Another possible issue that has a tendency to use up TONS of crawl budget is when said parameters are combined together. To make things worse, sometimes the parameters can be combined in different orders but will return the same content. For example:
 
www.example.com/product-category?colour=12&size=5
www.example.com/product-category?size=5&colour=12
 
Both of these URLs would return the same content but because the paths are different, the pages could be interpreted as duplicate content.
 
I worked on a client website a couple of years back who had this issue. We worked out that with all the filtering options they had, there were over a BILLION URLs that could be crawled by Google. This number was off the charts when you consider that there were only about 20,000 products offered.
 
Remember, Google does allocate crawl budget based on your PageRank. You need to ensure that this budget is being used in the most efficient way possible.
 
How to solve:
 
Before going further, I want to address another common, related problem: the URLs may not be SEO friendly because they are not database driven.  This isn't the issue I'm concerned about in this particular scenario as I'm more concerned about wasted crawl budget and having pages indexed which do not need to be, but it is still relevant.
 
The first place to start is addressing which pages you want to allow Google to crawl and index. This decision should be driven by your keyword research, and you need to cross reference all database attributes with your core target keywords. Let's continue with the theme from Go Outdoors for our example:
 
Here are our core keywords:
  • Waterproof jackets
  • Hiking boots
  • Women's walking trousers
On an eCommerce website, each of these products will have attributes associated with them which will be part of the database. Some common examples include:
  • Size (i.e. Large)
  • Colour (i.e. Black)
  • Price (i.e. £49.99)
  • Brand (i.e. North Face)
Your job is to find out which of these attributes are part of the keywords used to find the products. You also need to determine what combination (if any) of these attributes are used by your audience.
 
In doing so, you may find that there is a high search volume for keywords that include "North Face" + "waterproof jackets." This means that you will want a landing page for "North Face waterproof jackets" to be crawlable and indexable. You may also want to make sure that the database attribute has an SEO friendly URL, so rather than "waterproof-jackets/?brand=5" you will choose "waterproof-jackets/north-face/." You also want to make sure that these URLs are part of the navigation structure of your website to ensure a good flow of PageRank so that users can find these pages easily.
 
On the other hand, you may find that there is not much search volume for keywords that combine "North Face" with "Black" (for example, "black North Face jackets"). This means that you probably do not want the page with these two attributes to be crawlable and indexable.
 
Once you have a clear picture of which attributes you want indexed and which you don't, it is time for the next step, which is dependant on whether the URLs are already indexed or not.
 
If the URLs are not already indexed, the simplest step to take is to add the URL structure to your robots.txt file. You may need to play around with some Regex to achieve this. Make sure you test your regex properly so you don't block anything by accident. Also, be sure to use the Fetch as Google feature in Webmaster Tools. It's important to note that if the URLs are already indexed, adding them to your robots.txt file will NOT get them out of the index.
 
If the URLs are indexed, I'm afraid you need to use a plaster to fix the problem: the rel=canonical tag. In many cases, you are not fortunate enough to work on a website when it is being developed. The result is that you may inherit a situation like the one above and not be able to fix the core problem. In cases such as this, the rel=canonical tag serves as a plaster put over the issue with the hope that you can fix it properly later. You'll want to add the rel=canonical tag to the URLs you do not want indexed and point to the most relevant URL which you do want indexed.
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

4. Soft 404 errors 

This happens more often than you'd expect. A user will not notice anything different, but search engine crawlers sure do.  
 
A soft 404 is a page that looks like a 404 but returns a HTTP status code 200. In this instance, the user sees some text along the lines of "Sorry the page you requested cannot be found." But behind the scenes, a code 200 is telling search engines that the page is working correctly. This disconnect can cause problems with pages being crawled and indexed when you do not want them to be.
 
A soft 404 also means you cannot spot real broken pages and identify areas of your website where users are receiving a bad experience. From a link building perspective (I had to mention it somewhere!), neither solution is a good option. You may have incoming links to broken URLs, but the links will be hard to track down and redirect to the correct page.
 
How to solve:
 
Fortunately, this is a relatively simply fix for a developer who can set the page to return a 404 status code instead of a 200. Whilst you're there, you can have some fun and make a cool 404 page for your user's enjoyment. Here are some examples of awesome 404 pages, and I have to point to Distilled's own page here :)
 
To find soft 404s, you can use the feature in Google Webmaster Tools which will tell you about the ones Google has detected:
 
 
You can also perform a manual check by going to a broken URL on your site (such as www.example.com/5435fdfdfd) and seeing what status code you get. A tool I really like for checking the status code is Web Sniffer, or you can use the Ayima tool if you use Google Chrome.
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

5. 302 redirects instead of 301 redirects

Again, this is an easy redirect for developers to get wrong because, from a user's perspective, they can't tell the difference. However, the search engines treat these redirects very differently. Just to recap, a 301 redirect is permanent and the search engines will treat it as such; they'll pass link equity across to the new page. A 302 redirect is a temporary redirect and the search engines will not pass link equity because they expect the original page to come back at some point.
 
How to solve:
 
To find 302 redirected URLs, I recommend using a deep crawler such as Screaming Frog or the IIS SEO Toolkit. You can then filter by 302s and check to see if they should really be 302s, or if they should be 301s instead.
 
To fix the problem, you will need to ask your developers to change the rule so that a 301 redirect is used rather than a 302 redirect.
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

6. Broken/Outdated sitemaps

Whilst not essential, XML sitemaps are very useful to the search engines to make sure they can find all URLs that you care about. They can give the search engines a nudge in the right direction. Unfortunately, some XML sitemaps are generated one-time-only and quickly become outdated, causing them to contain broken links and not contain new URLs.  
 
Ideally, your XML sitemaps should be updated regularly so that broken URLs are removed and new URLs are added. This is more important if you're a large website that adds new pages all the time. Bing has also said that they have a threshold for "dirt" in a sitemap and if the threshold is hit, they will not trust it as much.
 
How to solve:
 
First, you should do an audit of your current sitemap to find broken links. This great tool from Mike King can do the job.
 
Second, you should speak to your developers about making your XML sitemap dynamic so that it updates regularly. Depending on your resources, this could be once a day, once a week, or once a month. There will be some development time required here, but it will save you (and them) plenty of time in the long run.
 
An extra tip here: you can experiment and create sitemaps which only contain new products and have these particular sitemaps update more regularly than your standard sitemaps. You could also do a bit of extra-lifting if you have dev resources to create a sitemap which only contains URLs which are not indexed.
 
More resources for solutions:
 
 

A few uncommon technical problems

I want to include a few problems that are not common and can actually be tricky to spot. The issues I'll share have all been seen recently on my client projects.
 

7. Ordering your robots.txt file wrong

I came across an example of this very recently, which led to a number of pages being crawled and indexed which were blocked in robots.txt.
 
The reason that the URLs in this case were crawled was because the commands within the robots.txt file was wrong. Individually the commands were correct, but they didn't work together correctly.
 
 
Google explicitly say this in their guidelines but I have to be honest, I hadn't really come across this problem before so it was a bit of a surprise.
 
How to solve:
 
Use your robots commands carefully and if you have separate commands for Googlebot, make sure you also tell Googlebot what other commands to follow - even if they have already been mentioned in the catchall command. Make use of the testing feature in Google Webmaster Tools that allows you to test how Google will react to your robots.txt file.
 

8.  Invisible character in robots.txt

I recently did a technical audit for one of my clients and noticed a warning in Google Webmaster Tools stating that "Syntax was not understood" on one of the lines. When I viewed the file and tested it, everything looked fine. I showed the issue to Tom Anthony who fetched the file via the command line and he diagnosed the problem: an invisible character had somehow found it's way into the file.  
 
I managed to look rather silly at this point by re-opening the file and looking for it!
 
How to solve:
 
The fix is quite simple. Simply rewrite the robots.txt file and run it through the command line again to re-check. If you're unfamiliar with the command line, check out this post by Craig Bradford over at Distilled.
 

9.  Google crawling base64 URLs

This problem was a very interesting one we recently came across, and another one that Tom spotted. One of our clients saw a massive increase in the number of 404 errors being reported in Webmaster Tools. We went in to take a look and found that nearly all of the errors were being generated by URLs in this format:
 
/aWYgeW91IGhhdmUgZGVjb2RlZA0KdGhpcyB5b3Ugc2hvdWxkIGRlZmluaXRlbHkNCmdldCBhIGxpZmU=/
 
Webmaster tools will tell you where these 404s are linked from, so we went to the page to findout how this URL was being generarted.  As hard as we tried, we couldn't find it. After lots of digging, we were able to see that these were authentication tokens generated by Ruby on Rails to try and prevent cross site requests. There were a few in the code of the page, and Google were trying to crawl them!  
 
In addition to the main, problem, the authentication tokens are all generated on the fly and are unique, hence why we couldn't find the ones that Google were telling us about.
 
How to solve:
 
In this case, we were quite lucky because we were able to add some Regex to the robots.txt file which told Google to stop crawling these URLs. It took a bit of time for Webmaster Tools to settle down, but eventually everything was calm.
 

10. Misconfigured servers

This issue is actually written by Tom, who worked on this particular client project. We encountered a problem with a website's main landing/login page not ranking. The page had been ranking and at some point had dropped out, and the client was at a loss. The pages all looked fine, loaded fine, and didn't seem to be doing any cloaking as far as we could see.

After lots of investigation and digging, it turned out that there was a subtle problem caused by a mis-configuration of the server software, with the HTTP headers from their server.

Normally an 'Accept' header would be sent by a client (your browser) to state which file types it understands, and very rarely this would modify what the server does. The server when it sends a file always sends a "Content-Type" header to specify if the file is HTML/PDF/JPEG/something else.

Their server (they're using Nginx) was returning a "Content-Type" that was a mirror of the first fiel type found in the clients "Accept" header. If you sent an accept header that started "text/html," then that is what the server would send back as the content-type header. This is peculiar behaviour, but it wasn't being noticed because browsers almost always send "text/html" as the start of their Accept header.

However, Googlebot sends "Accept: */*" when it is crawling (meaning it accepts anything).

(See: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=cache:http://www.ericgiguere.com/tools/http-header-viewer.html)

I found if I sent a */* header this caused the server to fall down as */* is not a valid content-type and the server would crumble and send an error response.

Changing your browsers user agent to Googlebot does not influence the HTTP headers, and tools such as web-sniffer also don't send the same HTTP headers as Googlebot, so you would never notice this issue with them!

Within a few days of fixing the issue, the pages were re-indexed and the client saw a spike in revenue.


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duminică, 9 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Chicago Teachers Vote to Strike; 350,000 Kids Affected; 16% Raise Over 4 Years Not Good Enough; Strike of Choice; Roadblock to Reform

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 09:58 PM PDT

The average teacher in Chicago makes $76,000 a year for nine months of work. They were offered 16% salary increase spread over four years. Given the system has a $665 million deficit this year and a bigger one next year, I am wondering why there should be a raise at all.

Nonetheless, the New York Times reports With No Contract Deal by Deadline in Chicago, Teachers Will Strike.
"We do not want a strike," David J. Vitale, president of the Chicago Board of Education, said late Sunday as he left the negotiations, which he described as extraordinarily difficult and "perhaps the most unbelievable process that I've ever been through."

Union leaders said they had hoped not to walk away from their jobs, but they said they were left with little choice.

"This is a difficult decision and one we hoped we could have avoided," said Karen Lewis, president of the Chicago Teachers Union.

The political stakes now may be highest for Rahm Emanuel, the Democratic mayor in a city with deep union roots. He took office last year holding up the improvement of public schools as one of his top priorities, but now faces arduous political terrain certain to accompany Chicago's first public schools strike in 25 years.

Late Sunday, Mr. Emanuel told reporters that school district officials had presented a strong offer to the union, including what some officials described as what would amount to a 16 percent raise for many teachers over four years — and that only two minor issues remained. "This is totally unnecessary, it's avoidable and our kids do not deserve this," Mr. Emanuel said, describing the decision as "a strike of choice."
Strike of Choice

Every strike is a strike of choice. Moreover, given projected budget deficits and with pension plans even deeper in the hole, the 16% raise offer was actually far too generous.

The ideal approach by mayor Rahm Emanuel would look something like this.

  1. Immediately fire all 25,000 teachers, disband the union, and kill defined benefit pension plans
  2. Offer teachers their jobs back with a zero percent pay raise with three days to decide
  3. For each day beyond three, the city would reduce its offer to teachers by $2,000 a day
  4. Offer generous relocation expenses to those willing to come to Chicago to teach
  5. Offer substitute teachers full-time jobs

It is time to break the back of the insidious grip public unions have on the state of Illinois. There is no better place than Chicago to start.

Illinois Policy Center Response

After writing the above, I received this email alert from John Tillman at the Illinois Policy center.

Dear Mike,
Now that Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis has announced that CTU will strike Monday morning, it is very clear: Children are not the top priority for teachers who belong to the Chicago Teachers Union. The two things that matter most to these teachers are money and avoiding accountability for poor performance.

Lewis and the CTU waited hours to announce the teacher walkout so they could hold a live press conference at the top of the 10 p.m. news hour. This focus on press impact rather than the impact on children's and parents' lives should once and for all tell Chicago Public School negotiators and Mayor Emanuel this: The time is now for the transformative reforms the children and parents need. The Mayor and CPS should pull all offers from the table and reset the negotiations.

The fiscal reality is that Chicago Public Schools are broke. CPS will be draining cash reserves this year just to stay afloat, and will be $1 billion in the red next school year. The 30 percent raise CTU originally asked for is out of the question, and so are other double-digit raises that CTU has demanded. Average teacher pay in Chicago is already at $71,000 without benefits, while the average Chicagoan makes only $30,203 and the unemployment rate in the city is nearly 11 percent.

The reality facing students is much more grim. Four out of 10 children who enter a CPS high school will not graduate. That's why the focus of these negotiations should be on reforms that empower parents rather than perpetuating a broken system. Monday morning, more than 80,000 kids in Chicago will show up to be taught in charter schools or independent private schools, and those teachers will be showing up to work – unlike the teachers who belong to the CTU. These schools have something in common that is different from those CPS schools that will not operate tomorrow: the CTU is not the monopoly provider of labor to those schools.

At minimum, CPS must put the option of merit pay back on the table. Chicago cannot be a place where bad teachers are protected at the expense of great teachers who deserve to be recognized and rewarded. And Chicago must allow for more educational competition. As Milton Friedman said, "The only solution is to break the monopoly, introduce competition and give the customers alternatives." By expanding the number of charter schools and establishing opportunity scholarships, we can begin to chip away at the monopoly that the Chicago Teachers Union has over the city's educational system. We must empower parents to choose what is best for their children, instead of letting Karen Lewis decide when kids can and cannot learn.
John Tillman
CEO
Roadblock to Reform



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Japan's Revised GDP Growth Cut in Half; Current Account Surplus Down 41% to $8 Billion; Mathematical Impossibilities

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 06:32 PM PDT

Revised estimates of Japan's growth have been cut in half, from 1.4% to .7%. More importantly, Japan has a small but shrinking current account surplus (in spite of running a trade deficit for some time).

Once the current account surplus vanishes, and I believe it will, Japan will become somewhat dependent on foreigners to handle its budget deficit. Good luck with that at 0% interest rates.

Please consider Japan Halves Growth Estimate for Past Quarter to Annual 0.7%.
Japan's economy expanded in the second quarter at half the pace the government initially estimated, underscoring the risk of a contraction as Europe's debt crisis caps exports.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent in the three months through June, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, less than a preliminary calculation of 1.4 percent. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a revised 1 percent gain. The current-account surplus fell 41 percent from a year earlier to 625.4 billion yen ($8 billion) in July, a finance ministry report showed.

Gridlock in parliament may limit fiscal stimulus just as Japan's expansion is restrained by weakness in global demand, strength in the yen, and the winding down of car-purchase subsidies. A slowdown in Asia may further curtail exports and add to pressure for monetary easing after Chinese data yesterday suggested the region's biggest economy is losing steam.
Case For Stimulus?

I am amused by a Reuters report that says Japan Q2 GDP revised down, builds case for stimulus
In a sign of slackening foreign demand for Japanese goods caused by the euro zone debt crisis and China's slowdown, the July current account surplus came 40.6 percent below year-ago levels, reflecting a drop in exports.

However, due to a slower rise in imports, the fall in the surplus to 625.4 billion yen ($8 billion) was less pronounced than the forecast 56.8 percent drop to 455.0 billion.

Should the economy require more fiscal stimulus, the policy response could be delayed as policy making has ground to a halt due to a stand-off between the ruling and opposition parties.
Mathematical Impossibilities

Notice the absurd reliance on stimulus, in spite of a shocking amount of debt, exceeding 200% of GDP.

Moreover, the idea of fiscal stimulus is actually preposterous given the government wants to hike taxes to do something about the deficit and mammoth amount of debt.

Japan wants to do two things at once and it is mathematically impossible.

Tax hikes are certainly not going to stimulate a thing, and on August 10, Japan Parliament Passed Sales-Tax Increase doubling the nation's sales tax by 2015 as a step toward fiscal reconstruction.

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Plenty of Jobs if You are "King of the Road"

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 09:45 AM PDT

This post is about "Bobo". I wrote about Bobo before. He is in his early 50s, highly skilled, and willing to travel. In his latest email, he says "I'm down to one bag, one laptop, and one phone."

When he loses his job, he gets another within a few days.

King of the Road

My previous post was Bobo's Travels - Plenty of Job Offers for Skilled Engineers IF You Can be Like Bobo, written on December 2, 2011.

Here is an update from "Bobo" on what the last year was like.
Hello Mish

The US mining job I was at just ended. They gave me one hour to clean out my desk. That was nice. A power plant where I once worked only gave me 5 minutes.

Hire. Fire. Boom. Bust. Construction is a fast world.

Lucky for me I can get another job in a few days or so. This is the third consecutive time I've overlapped the next job with the severance package from the one before. Call it sweet revenge.

Last year I worked for 3 companies, in 2 countries, and 5 states. This year, so far, I worked in 2 countries and 3 states.

There is plenty of work, but my lifestyle is not for everyone.  I have no kayaks, no canoes, no bikes, and no golf clubs.

I'm down to one bag, one laptop, and one phone.

Now I'm in Quebec. Round and round we go. Where I end up no one knows!

It took me exactly one day to get fired in the US and hired in Canada. I'm building a huge metal processing plant. I went from gold mining to copper processing.

I went from dusty cowboy sage brush to foggy misty pines. This must my northern limit. I'm absolutely freezing here. And it's only August.

This place is just scattered homes in the woods with a small village or two. The big city has a population of 50,000 and is about two hours away. It is about 2/3 English, 1/3 pure French, with a sharp accent that's very difficult to understand. Regardless, it's too far for a daily commute.

At least all the locals are friendly.

The area is primarily green forests and a million lakes. I saw a moose wandering around this morning, 50 feet from my office window. Last night I had a face-to face encounter with one at 90 km per hr. It was dark, and the moose was running across the road as I drove by. I just missed it. Even this morning, I can still see that moose head staring at me.

Today is a cool, cloudy, misty, pouring, raining day. Now I know where all the lakes come from. I have turned up the heat already, every night. It's going to be a long winter.

I'm working 10 days on, 4 days off. Their travel desk seems pretty good. They want to book my next 3 trips out already. I can fly anywhere in the world for the 4 days, but 4 days in Europe doesn't seem worth it. South Beach Miami, though, is looking nicer and warmer all the time.

There are no apartments or hotels here. There is just a scattering of houses in the woods or cabins on a lake, and everyone is renting out rooms because of the construction boom. I rented a place for $500 a month, half what I paid in in the states. However, I now have to pay for a car, insurance, gas, and maintenance. Moreover, I lose on every transaction here. For example, I went to deposit $1000 into a Canadian bank, and they tried to charge me a $40 fee due to exchange rates.

In the US I got by without a car on one job. Here I need one. For that I need a Canadian bank account. I bought a dumpy used car because I'm only here for a year or so. Still, I have to register the car in Canada. To do that, I need insurance. For that I need a Canadian driver license. So I drive the 2 hours into town to get one. Then I find out I have to provide 6 years of my past driving records and past insurance to get insurance.

Everything is higher cost. Their generous per diem tilts in my favor, but everything is still a huge hassle.

I haven't done much work yet. Rather, I'm just settling in and dealing with a new apartment, car, insurance, banking, training, site orientation, phone, car insurance again, driver's license, work permits, and a mountain of paperwork in general.

The good news is I only have 3 more working days before my 4 day break.

My world is spinning so fast that I am forced to make decisions and to live in a way I would never choose. All this for a job.

Bobo
In honor of Bobo I present "King of the Road" by Roger Miller



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Seth's Blog : What to obsess over

What to obsess over

They use stopwatches at McDonald's. They know, to the second, how long it should take to make a batch of fries. And they use spreadsheets, too, to whittle the price of each fry down by a hundredth of a cent if they can. They're big and it matters.

Small businesspeople often act like direct marketers. They pick a number and they obsess over it. In direct mail, of course, it's the open rate or the conversion rate. For a freelancer or small business person, it might be your bank balance or the growth in weekly sales.

I think for most businesses that want to grow, it's way too soon to act like a direct marketer and pick a single number to obsess about.

The reason is that these numbers demand that you start tweaking. You can tweak a website or tweak an accounts payable policy and make numbers go up, which is great, but it's not going to fundamentally change your business.

I'd have you obsess about things that are a lot more difficult to measure. Things like the level of joy or relief or gratitude your best customers feel. How much risk your team is willing to take with new product launches. How many people recommended you to a friend today...

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sâmbătă, 8 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


No One Happy Except Stock Market; Discord Emerges in Spain, Italy, Germany to ECB Announcement

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 06:33 PM PDT

Discord Emerges

It's not just Germany expressing reservations about the ECB's plan to "Save the Euro". Spain, Italy, and Germany all have concerns about the plan launched last week by ECB president Mario Draghi.

Germany does not like the plan because it does too much (please see 54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations) but Italy and Spain are annoyed they may have to bow to the Troika to get bailouts.

Please consider After High Note for Euro Plan, Discord Emerges.
Greeted with initial fanfare by investors and economic officials, the unlimited bond-buying plan that the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, announced Thursday ran into immediate political problems in the crucial countries of Germany, Spain and Italy.

In Germany, despite Chancellor Angela Merkel's support for Mr. Draghi and the independence of the Central Bank, political and news media reaction was scathing, with accusations that the bank, in seeking to stabilize the euro currency union, was subverting its mandate to fight inflation and forcing debt upon euro zone members.

"A Black Day for the Euro," "Over the Red Line" and "Pandora's Box Opened Forever" were some of the German headlines, with the normally sympathetic Süddeutsche Zeitung headlining an editorial: "The E.C.B. Rewards Mismanagement." Even the German Bundesbank, officially part of the European Central Bank, put out a statement commenting acidly that the plan was "financing governments by printing bank notes."

At the same time, the two intended beneficiaries of the Draghi plan — Spain and Italy — expressed reluctance to ask the bank for help, even if both might eventually have little choice but to seek aid. The governments in Madrid and Rome apparently fear the political impact at home of bowing to whatever demands for harsh economic policy changes might come with the aid.

"Those who did everything to have the E.C.B. help now say they don't want it," Ferruccio de Bortoli, editor in chief of the newspaper Corriere della Sera, said in a Twitter message. "Speculation will play on this contradiction."
ECB's Dirty Work

German newspapers blasted the announcement, even typically pro-EU newspapers as per Der Spiegel article 'The ECB Is Doing Governments' Dirty Work'
The markets reacted to the announcement with euphoria. On Friday, the German DAX stock market index climbed to over 7,200 points, its highest level in 2012. Yields on Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds dropped, as well.

But the criticism of the ECB's course continued in Germany. Bundesbank President Weidmann reiterated his opposition to the move, saying it was too close to "state financing via the money presses." Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union, said that the ECB must be "a stability bank and not an inflation bank".

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Rescuing the euro at any price could be an economic disaster -- that is the red line that must not be crossed. The other limit is the law: In a community based on law, the ends can never justify the means. A euro community that is based on constantly breaching treaties is built on a shaky foundation."

"On Thursday, the ECB unfortunately crossed both red lines. It did so reluctantly and not irrevocably, and yet it did so with determination. The purchase of government bonds by the central bank means that the ECB will tolerate and even reward economic mismanagement. (…) The crisis countries are not out of the woods yet. And that means that if the ECB provides them with unlimited help, then it is financing unsound states. It can only do so by printing ever more money. Ultimately, there will be the threat of bubbles, crises and inflation. It will benefit speculators, and the vast majority of citizens will have to foot the bill."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Draghi has made it clear that, from now on, the ECB will only buy bonds when a crisis-hit country asks for help from the euro rescue fund or agrees to other conditions. But that promise isn't new. The would-be saviors of the euro have been insisting on structural reforms for years. The recipients of aid make promises but often do not keep them. But what will the ECB do if, say, Italy does not carry out the labor market reforms it has promised? Is it going to start selling Italian bonds? It can't if it takes its own argument seriously, that monetary policy in the euro zone no longer functions properly."

"The central bank is getting tangled up in its own arguments because it has allowed itself to become the prisoner of politics. Since it is willing to make up for the failures of European politicians, it can not quit the bond-purchasing program."

"The leaders of southern euro-zone countries should be happy: They can continue to borrow at low interest rates and do not need to worry about finding investors. But the northern leaders are satisfied, too, because they can hide behind the ECB and do not need to face uncomfortable questions in, say, the Bundestag (Germany's parliament) about all the additional risks that Germany is taking on. In the euro zone, there is no longer a distinction between monetary and fiscal policy."

The conservative Die Welt writes:
"Every time the politicians shout 'fire,' the ECB puts it out. ..
"With his reference to a possible breakup of the euro zone, Draghi tried to justify the fact that he is trampling all over the ECB's statutes. In doing so, he is doing the dirty work for governments, who can slow down the pace of reforms a bit now that they are being protected by the central bank. At the same time, the ECB will get clogged up with government bonds from the crisis countries."

"The dangers of this policy are enormous. At the moment, it's not inflation that is the big problem. Rather, it is the redistribution of wealth from the north to the south in a completely non-transparent way and without political legitimacy. (The money is flowing) from the savers to those who benefit from this irresponsible monetary policy. This is undemocratic and antisocial."
No One Happy Except Stock Market

There are some favorable comments in the Der Spiegel but many additional negative ones that I did not excerpt.

Curiously, no one seems happy with the deal but the central bankers who hatched the plan and the stock market.

Of course the stock market always easy money, until things blow sky high like the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2005 housing bubble.
 Addendum:

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54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 10:03 AM PDT

Moment of Recognition

It appears a majority of German citizens have finally had enough of chancellor Angela Merkel saying one thing and doing another in regards to bailouts. They have also had enough of Mario Draghi and his policies.

According to Der Spiegel a Majority of Germans Want the Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM

Poll Results

  • 54% want the court to reject the ESM outright. Only 25% want the court to ignore the Euroskeptics
  • 53% are against transfer of more powers to the EU. Only 27% are in favor.
  • 42% want Greece out of the Eurozone. Only 30% want Greece in the Eurozone.

Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Another article in Der Spiegel claims Merkel has also expressed reservations on ECB decision.

Merkel frequently says one thing and does another. If she has reservations, I suggest the reason is political expediency. Too many Germans are against the ESM for her not to express reservations.

Other German politicians are much easier to read.

For example...
CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt reacted anxiously: "I stand by my warning that a public finance by printing is wrong and extremely dangerous." He could only urge Draghi strongly "not to open the floodgates for comprehensive purchasing programs." Dobrindt warned: "The ECB must be a bank stability and must be no inflation bank."

Sharp criticism of Merkel came from the opposition: SPD parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier appreciated the decision of the ECB as a "document of failure" of Chancellor Merkel. You know "that in its own coalition has no majority for more bailouts," Steinmeier said in Berlin on Thursday. Therefore, the chancellor had assigned all responsibility for the euro bailout by the ECB. "What follows now is taking place with much reduced parliamentary control," said ahead of the SPD politician.

Even Green group leader Jürgen Trittin criticized Merkel. With their hardline attitude to the question of debt repayment pact Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi have left no choice but to introduce as a pooling of debt through the back door, Trittin said on Thursday in Hanover. The danger now is that the German billion support for the bailout fund could be used up indefinitely. There were no strict rules for the use of aid

The EU treaties give the ECB the task of watching over the price stability in the euro area and set monetary policy. The financing of government budgets is the ECB therefore not allowed. Critics argued in recent weeks repeatedly, through the purchase of government bonds from crisis countries, the central bank financiers but indirectly budgets.

Court Ruling Coming Up

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

I believe bond purchases by the ECB are in violation of the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties which explicitly ban state funding. Nonetheless, I expect the court to OK the ESM with reservations and warning.

One thing that might influence a no vote is Mario Draghi's plan that allows unlimited purchases. Thus approval by the court is not guaranteed by any means.

Addendum:

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