miercuri, 24 iulie 2013

Seth's Blog : The future is messy...

 

The future is messy...

and the past is neat.

It's always like that.

That's because the people who chronicle the past are busy connecting the dots, editing what we remember and presenting a neat, coherent arc. We can publish the history of Roman Empire in 500 pages, but we'd need ten times that to contain a narrative of the noise in your head over the last hour.

Even viral videos are easy to describe after they happen. But if these experts are so smart, how come they can never predict the next one?

       

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marți, 23 iulie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China Manufacturing PMI Declines at Quickest Pace Since Last August

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 08:50 PM PDT

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows China Manufacturing PMI Declines at Quickest Pace Since Last August.
Key points

  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 47.7 (48.2 in June). Eleven-month low.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 48.2 (48.6 in June). Nine-month low.


PMI, Production, Exports



Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"The lower reading of the July HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI suggests a continuous slowdown in manufacturing sectors thanks to weaker new orders and faster destocking. This adds more pressure on the labour market. As Beijing has recently stressed to secure the minimum level of growth required to ensure stable employment, the flash PMI reinforces the need to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to stabilise growth."
Fine Tuning Needed?

Regarding Hongbin Qu's comment that "China needs to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to stabilise growth".

Mish says "please be serious".

China is supposedly growing at 7-8%. Such growth is not sustainable with or without "additional fine tuning".

Belief in central planners runs high. Such belief is foolish.

We do not need fine tuning, we need to eliminate fine tuners.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

99% Believe the Economic Situation in Spain is Bad; How Much Worse Can This Get?

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 06:33 PM PDT

According to the latest Eurobarometer, 99% believe that the economic situation in Spain is bad.

Via Google translate from La Vanguardia.
79% of Spanish unemployment considered as the main problem of the country and 99% believe that the economic situation in Spain is bad, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey published today. In comparison, 51% on average in the European Union (EU) believes that the main challenge for the country is 72% unemployment and the economic situation is bad.

Regarding the future, almost half of the Spanish respondents, 46%, believes that the country's economic situation will remain the same over the next twelve months, compared to 15% who think it will improve and 37% who think it will be worse.

62% do not believe that the economic crisis has already had its biggest impact on the labor market and therefore the economy is recovering slowly, and, on the contrary, they think that "the worst of the crisis is yet to come".
How Much Worse Can This Get?

The good news is 99% negative consensus has little room to drop.

However, 15% think the economy will improve, 37% think it will worsen, and 46% think it will remain the same. 2% don't know.

That score can worsen, and it probably will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

About that Austerity in Spain: There Isn't Any

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 11:23 AM PDT

I have long contended there is little austerity in Spain and there certainly isn't much reform either. I now have some numbers to back that up.

Via Mish-modified Google-translation from El Economista, please consider personnel costs rise despite full state salary freeze.
Despite the 5% snip in public salaries in 2010, the subsequent wage freeze in 2011, the elimination of extra pay in 2012 and the current freeze in Administration salaries, the overall payroll became cheaper by a only 2.1% year-over-year to December last year.

The budget of expenses and monthly payments, which has been updated recently by the General Comptroller of the State Administration (IGAE), casts doubt on the effectiveness and / or proportionality of adjustments labor.

For example, until the end of May, the state paid 14.17 million euros to its temporary staff, an increase of 9.5% over last year.

This upward trend in payments to temporary staff is constant from the beginning of this exercise. since, January 31, 2013, these state payments increased 21.3 percent (4.13 million total) about 3.4 million higher than the same month a year earlier.

It may seem paradoxical, but in the last two two years, the State Administration has virtually the same costs for temporary staff. What it cut one year, it added back the next, in nearly the same amount.

Similarly, spending on senior positions in May 2012 was 29.7 million euros. It is now 29.86 million euros, an increase of 0.5%.

According to the General Comptroller, remuneration to civil servants decreased 2% from a year earlier.

However, despite this saving palpable in payrolls of officials, the State has not been able to lower their personnel costs, since payments until May totals amounted to EUR 10.184 million (10.139 million last year) , an increase of 45 million, representing an increase of 0.4%.
When Keynesian clowns point to Spain and say "austerity doesn't work", ask them "where is the austerity?" Also ask "where is the labor reform?" Then ask "where is the pension reform?"

Then kindly point out there is little to no austerity, and little to no reform, but there has been massive tax hikes, exactly the wrong thing to do.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Scranton Needs 117% Property Tax Hike to Balance Budget; Simple Truth: Scranton is Bankrupt

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 09:25 AM PDT

Those looking for the next city to go bankrupt should consider the possibilities in Scranton.

The Pennsylvania Economy League projects Scranton could be looking at $18 million deficit, 117 percent tax hike in 2014.
Scranton taxpayers could face a 117 percent increase in taxes next year as the city's finances continue to spiral out of control.

A new analysis by the Pennsylvania Economy League projects an $18 million deficit for 2014, an amount so massive it outpaces the approximate $17 million the struggling city collects annually in just property taxes.

Though council members did not extensively discuss the PEL letter Thursday, council Finance Chairman Frank Joyce said after the meeting, "The tax increase they (PEL) recommend is far too expensive for taxpayers to handle."

Mr. Joyce suggested that perhaps the city could refinance debt to implement a financial maneuver called a "scoop," in which higher debt service payments due next year are scooped out of the budget and swapped with lower payments due in future years. The city implemented such a scoop for the 2013 budget by refinancing debt to have lower debt-service this year than it otherwise would have had, Mr. Joyce noted.

"The city's definitely going to need help," Mr. Joyce said. "Maybe we can refinance debt to lessen the tax impact through a scoop. It may be viewed by some as kicking the can down the road, but it may prove to the state that we need a (countywide) sales tax."
Inane Discussion

PEL's proposal to raise property taxes is absurd. So are proposals for a countywide tax to bail out Scranton.

City bureaucrats and the PEL can hem and haw and piss and moan, but can-kicking exercises, "scoops", and tax hikes will only make the problem worse.

It's time for Scranton to face the simple truth. It is bankrupt.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Fools Say "Sell the Gold Rally"

Posted: 22 Jul 2013 11:02 PM PDT

Lee Munson of Portfolio LLC says "Sell the gold rally".
The question for investors and speculators alike is if gold has at long last marked the end of a wrenching nearly two-year pullback from the 2011 highs over $1,900. Lee Munson of Portfolio LLC says any rally marks a chance to make a graceful exit from their positions.

"Investors are confusing the fact that [gold] holds its value super long, hundred-year periods of time versus inflation versus making actual growth," Munson says in the attached video. "It just holds its value. That's not a reason to hold anything."

Those who quibble with that analysis, parsing the numbers to maximize the apparent returns of gold versus stocks are missing the point. Gold has worked over shorter periods as a speculative vehicle but the die hard goldbugs have seen minimal returns at best and dramatically underperformed stocks.

Since 1940 adjusted for inflation the only period over which gold has outperformed stocks is 2000 - 2010; and that lead is slipping fast. History suggests gold is extremely volatile in shorter terms but dramatically lags U.S. equities for the truly committed gold enthusiasts.

Munson has simple advice for gold investors enjoying the terrific rally from the recent lows. Sell. "Exit out of the trade. Get serious. Get real."
Disingenuous or Clueless?

I do not profess to know what the price of gold will be at any time, but Munson seems to think he does, so much so that he screams sell after a measly rally.

Munson is certainly clueless about the fundamentals of gold.

If you don't understand the fundamental driver (and it's not jewelry or central bank selling) please consider Plague of Gold Bears Now Say "Gold Unsafe at Any Price"; What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold?

Gold outperformed between 2000 and 20010 for a reason. And that reason is global central bank debasement of currency. Gold also outperformed in the late 70s for the same reason, but it did get ahead of itself.

Additional Reading


  1. Ritholtz on Gold and on Making Predictions; How Secular Bull Markets End; Winning vs. Investing
  2. Nouriel Roubini Seriously Misguided on Gold, on Equities, on Economic Growth, on Money
  3. Speculative Gold Bets at 5-Year Low; Metal Will Get "Crushed" Says Credit Suisse

Cash, Bonds, Equities, or Gold?

You have to put your money somewhere (and somewhere includes cash).

This is not about being a "die hard gold bug". This is about understanding the case for gold as it exists now.

The fundamentals of gold are strong, yet sentiment is so extreme that bears says "gold is unsafe at ANY price". Now Munson says this puny rally is a chance to exit.

With sentiment this extreme in the face of strong fundamentals and a rally, I like my chances here.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The Voices Behind the 105 Different “The Simpsons” Characters

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 06:58 PM PDT

These 6 actors are responsible for bringing 105 of the memorable "Simpsons" characters to life.






















Awesome "Breaking Bad" Mask

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 06:09 PM PDT

Bryan Cranston aka Walter White at Comic-Con International 2013. See how Walter White turns himself into Bryan Cranston.



















“Star Wars” Vs. “Game Of Thrones”

Posted: 23 Jul 2013 05:22 PM PDT

The battle between "Star Wars" and "Game Of Thrones."





















































Influencing Social Awesomizers with Personalized Content

Influencing Social Awesomizers with Personalized Content


Influencing Social Awesomizers with Personalized Content

Posted: 22 Jul 2013 07:21 PM PDT

Posted by JonMorris

Since the birth of social media, brands have been searching for an effective way to leverage the power of influencers â€" those social "awesomizers" who have a significant following and a powerful voice in their respective industries. Obtaining a mere mention by the right influencer could boost even the most niche business to the forefront of social buzz.

But how do you determine who to target? How do you enchant them and convert them into a brand advocate? Read on to learn about the steps we took at Rise Interactive in developing and integrating personalized content into a digital marketing strategy, and the significant impact it had in elevating Rise's digital presence.

Step 1: Identify your awesomizer

The first thing you need to do is identify your social media awesomizer â€" someone with a significant social following and powerful voice in their industry. Rise Interactive hosts routine digital marketing conferences where we bring together some of the brightest minds in the industry in our Internet Marketing Leadership Series (IMLS). At our first event, Travis Wright, global social media manager at Symantec and self-professed digital disrupter and marketing provocateur, gave a riveting (and hilarious) presentation about the power of social media. An avid Kansas City Chiefs fan, Travis described his experience sparring with the Chiefs through social media.

It all started with the below tweet, which created an unexpected but powerful ripple effect, due in large part to Travis's broad social media following (more than 129,000 Twitter followers when he spoke at IMLS).

Soon after this tweet was sent, @kcchiefs rudely replied to Travis, igniting an explosive and ongoing social media feud. Travis's battle with the Chiefs was eventually picked up by Reddit, Yahoo, Mashable and more. We like to think that this negative press contributed to the Chiefs firing their general manager, Scott Pioli, although we know that it was most likely Kansas City's abysmal 2-14 record.

Travis's story demonstrated the true power of social media and how he harnessed it to his advantage. He had a compelling story and a large group of followers, which allowed him to basically accomplish the impossible.

It got us at Rise thinking; could a brand create noise for itself on social media just as Travis had done? It was time for an experiment.

Key takeaway

Having a direct relationship with a social influencer will definitely help get your foot in the door, but even if you don't have a personal connection with them, you can still court them. Find people in your industry that you respect, that are viewed as influential thought leaders, and that have a large group of followers. Start developing an online relationship with them â€" reach out to them and tell them how much you admired one of their blog posts, or reply to and share their posts. Be sincere and see where things lead. If you are able to establish a solid relationship with an awesomizer, consider pitching them your idea to develop personalized content for them to share with their followers. The worst thing that could happen is they say no. Big deal â€" we've all been rejected before. Reach out to the next influencer, and sooner or later one of them will welcome the attention and say yes.

While having a pre-established relationship is the best case scenario, it's not a requirement. If you mine the data, find the story, and create and share the personalized content, that is definitely enough to start a relationship with an influencer.

Step 2: Develop personalized content

Travis's story was so compelling and rare, and because it could be structured with an easy-to-follow timeline of events, we knew it would make for an awesome infographic. We were excited to test out our experiment â€" if we created personalized content for Travis, would he share it across his large group of followers, and would that help turn him into a brand advocate while also capturing attention for the Rise Interactive brand? Only one way to find out…

We got to work compiling the timeline and getting the facts straight. Our graphic designer started laying out the infographic. It was a time-consuming process â€" reviews, revisions, legal hurdles that we hadn't considered, and more revisions. But it had to be perfect â€" this was a gift to our awesomizer, after all â€" so we labored on until we had our final product. We were proud of what we developed, but would Travis really share it? Would it have any significant impact for Rise?

Key takeaway

First, you need to identify which format your content should take. We chose an infographic because they're a popular format for sharing easy-to-understand content, the timeline nature of Travis's story would be easy to represent graphically, and they're also one of our creative team's specialties. Think about the best vessel for your content, what you're good at, and then let the creative juices flow. Even though it's pandering to your influencer, make sure it's compelling enough to stand alone in case they don't share it. The second takeaway is that you need to invest a lot of time to guarantee a great final product. You're creating personalized content for awesomizers, so it should go without saying that the final product is awesome.

Step 3: Syndicate content

It was the moment of truth. We posted the infographic to Rise Interactive's blog.Then I personally shared the infographic with Travis on Twitter; we didn't tweet this out first ourselves. Exclusivity was part of our strategy; we wanted Travis to be the first to see the infographic and allow him to share it first.

We waited in anticipation. Travis responded to my tweet, thanking us for creating the infographic. He then created a separate tweet and shared it with his Twitter followers, all 129,000 of them.

He then proceeded to embed the full infographic on his blog, along with links to Rise Interactive's blog.

He also tweeted about his new blog post.

Our experiment was a success â€" Travis was sharing our infographic. Travis found benefit in our efforts as well. We weren't just building an infographic; we were starting to build a brand advocate.

On top of Travis's efforts, our SEO team focused on link building to generate more attention and authority for the infographic by securing links back to Rise's blog.

Key takeaway

Provide your influencer with exclusivity in viewing and sharing your personalized content. Allowing them to create the first surge of the sharing wave will help reinforce that they are an extremely valuable, important part in the process. But don't rely on them for everything â€" have a two-pronged approach and invest in link building efforts to compliment the awesomizer's reach.

Step 4: Measure results

The last step is to measure the results of all of your efforts. Only the data can tell you how much of a success the experiment was.

Overall, Rise Interactive's blog received approximately 50 links and 12 total linking root domains.* Extra Mustard, one of Sports Illustrated's sister sites, linked to the infographic because of its sports theme, which was a big win because of the high traffic that the site receives. The first week of the infographic being live on our blog, the Rise website received approximately 15,500 referral visits; 98 percent of those visits were new visitors.

Aside from the spike in website traffic to Rise's website, we converted Travis Wright into a brand advocate. He loved the infographic we created for him, and happily shared it among his vast social network. It was truly a win-win scenario for both Travis Wright and Rise Interactive.

*It's important to note how we arrived at these numbers: We looked at multiple different sources (Moz, GWT, BWT, and Majestic) and de-duplicated link data from each source to arrive at a final number of links and linking root domains.

Key takeaway

Make sure that you have analytics in place to track the success of your initiative. While it was a great accomplishment that Travis shared the infographic with his social followers, we needed to have more objective ways to measure success. Only data can truly show you how successful any digital marketing investment really is, so make sure you have an analytically driven, data focused reporting strategy in place to define what success really looks like.

Conclusion

Ultimately, there are two significant takeaways we can gather from all of this. The first is that in our experience, developing personalized content for social awesomizers is an effective way to enchant influencers, convert them into brand advocates and elevate a brand's digital presence. The second is that involving multiple channels and uniting them with one common goal can lead to some innovative strategies and awesome results. Rise's creative, SEO, social, and event marketing teams all worked together on this project and accomplished more than any single channel could have accomplished alone.


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Our Favorite Photos from June

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Our Favorite Photos from June

Every month, White House photographers pick some of their favorite pictures to share with you. This month, we've put together a behind-the-scenes look at the President's trips to Europe and Africa, his visit with the 2012 WNBA champion Indiana Fever, and a photo of the President and First Dog, Bo.

Check out some of our favorite photos from June 2013.

Check out the June 2013 photo gallery.

President Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron tour Enniskillen Primary School in Northern Ireland. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

 
 
  Top Stories

You're Going to Want to Watch This Speech

Tomorrow, almost five years after the financial crisis fueled a devastating recession, the President will return to Knox College to kick off a series of speeches that will lay out his vision for rebuilding an economy that puts the middle class and those fighting to join it front and center.

READ MORE

In New Delhi, Vice President Biden Tours Gandhi Smriti

Vice President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden arrived in New Delhi today, the first stop on a six-day trip to India and Singapore.

READ MORE

Weekly Address: Confirming Rich Cordray to Lead the CFPB

In his weekly address, President Obama discusses the Senate’s confirmation of Rich Cordray as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

READ MORE

 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

12:30 AM: The Vice President meets with Vice President Hamid Ansari

4:30 AM: The Vice President meets with Sushma Swaraj of the Bharatiya Janata Party

6:45 AM: The Vice President meets with Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh

8:00 AM: The Vice President meets with President Pranab Mukherjee

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:00 AM: The the Vice President attends a dinner hosted by Vice President Ansari

10:45 AM: The President meets with members of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus

11:45 AM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE

2:00 PM: The Vice President and Dr. Biden arrive in Mumbai

2:10 PM: The President honors the 2013 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champions the Louisville Cardinals WATCH LIVE

 

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