miercuri, 1 septembrie 2010

Seth's Blog : Launching the ShipIt Workbook

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Launching the ShipIt Workbook

Six months ago, I put together a workbook that would help Linchpin readers ship.

After testing it out on hundreds of people, it's now ready for retail sale.

You can find details here, or jump right to the buy page. The goal? To make you uncomfortable at the beginning of a project (and successful at the end).

Here's the core idea: it's weird to write in a book. When you do, you're making a commitment. You're combining the open-mindedness that reading brings with the physical action of writing. If you do that at every step in a project--and if your co-workers do too--the seemingly slippery decisions that get made appear a lot more solid.

The ShipIt workbook is designed to be worked on in groups (hence the five pack) and it delivers. If you can confront the mechanics or the fear that's slowing down (or even killing) your project, it's easy to fix it now, before it's too late.

There's no digital version, because without writing things down, it can't work. But there is an mp3 interview that will help you get your arms around how each page works. I'm pricing this first batch at $3.20 each in a pack of five just for the launch.

I hope you'll give it a try.

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Daily Snapshot: Middle East Peace Talks Resume

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
 

 

Photo of the Day

Photo of the Day - August 18, 2010

Members of the military listen as President Barack Obama talks with soldiers at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas, Aug. 31, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Today's Schedule

In the morning, the President will participate in a call with FEMA Administrator Fugate on the preparations being made in advance of Hurricane Earl along the eastern seaboard. The President wants to ensure the federal government is doing everything in its power to keep people safe before the storm affects the East Coast and that we are supporting survivors of the storm in our Caribbean territories.

Later, the President will hold separate bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in the Oval Office. Later in the evening, the President will host a working dinner for the visiting leaders in the Old Family Dining Room.

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

7:30 AM: Vice President Biden attends Change of Command, End of Combat Operations Ceremony at Camp Victory in Iraq WhiteHouse.gov/live

9:15 AM: The President participates in a call with FEMA Administrator Fugate on the preparations being made in advance of Hurricane Earl

10:45 AM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel

1:30 PM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority

2:45 PM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan

4:00 PM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt

5:20 PM: The President delivers a statement to the press WhiteHouse.gov/live

7:00 PM: The President and visiting leaders deliver statements to the press WhiteHouse.gov/live

8:00 PM: The President hosts a working dinner with visiting leaders

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog

President Obama's Address on the End of the Combat Mission in Iraq
Having returned hours earlier from a conversation with troops in Fort Bliss, Texas – troops who had seen every phase of what has become one of America’s longest wars – the President spoke to the Nation for just the second time from the Oval Office to announce the end of America’s combat role in Iraq.

President Obama Salutes the Troops in Fort Bliss: "Thank You" and "Welcome Home"
The President travels to Fort Bliss, TX to meet with the troops and applaud their service.

New Resources for Employers and Unions to Help Keep Health Coverage Accessible and Affordable
Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke explains how the Affordable Care Act’s Early Retiree Reinsurance Program will make it a little easier for employers to provide high-quality health benefits to their retirees.

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SEOptimise

SEOptimise


40 Title Tag SEO for Google Ranking Factors & Optimization Techniques + Resources

Posted: 31 Aug 2010 05:27 AM PDT

A few months ago one of my clients has changed platforms. The new platform changed almost everything we’ve optimized on-site for years. It even messed up the obvious SEO basics like title tags and we’re struggling with them to this day as the platform maker insisted that title tags “get assigned automatically” in their system.

While title tag optimization is the daily bread of every SEO, for many people, like

  1. software vendors
  2. content creators
  3. business leaders

title tags appear to be completely random and negligible. They assume that

title tags won’t get even really seen by the average user so why bother with them at all?

They forget that title tags get displayed in search results on Google and elsewhere and that it’s still one of the most important ranking factors for Google.

Also it’s not just one ranking factor.

There at least around 30 signals from the title tag alone if you ask me. Thus I decided to list what I perceive to be the 40 title tag SEO for Google ranking factors and optimization techniques plus resources every website owner should consider. Many are common sense by now, others will be new to some people. Also I added some factors I personally assume to count on Google. I have no objective proof for those but I hope you will provide their own opinion on them.

Not all title tag optimization techniques are ranking factors for Google but they need to be implemented as well in a thorough on-site SEO campaign.


  • Exact Match (of search query) – When your title tag matches the search query exactly than it’s 100% relevant for it. Example: searching for [seo news] without brackets would match a page with SEO News as a title tag. Nothing more or less.
  • Keyword Order – On Google it’s first come, first serve. The first word in the title tag is most relevant. So in case you want to rank for [seo news] you better write “SEO News” in your title tag and not “News SEO”.
  • Keywords vs Keyphrases – As we have seen in the examples above we in most cases attempt to rank for keyphrases containing two or more terms not single word keywords. You won’t rank for [seo] or [news] easily anyways unless you are Wikipedia or CNN so you better target keyphrases not just keywords.
  • Collocations and Compounds – Many keyphrases are just phrases for the sake of SEO but many others are already a combination linguistically. Many of them are not yet phrases but they are collocations (two or more words often used together) or compounds (one term consisting of two or more words). In English it is often difficult to find out whether you are using a collocation or a compound but in other languages it is. “Blue sky” is a collocation but “skyscraper” is a compound. Here you can spot it easily because it’s one word. Google users are often looking for compounds and collocations. So you want to write “blue sky” in your title to rank for it instead of “blue, sky”.
  • Modifiers (like “cheap” or buy) – There are common modifiers many searchers look for. In case you have an e-commerce website you certainly have users who are seeking “cheap [insert your product here]” or “buy [insert your product here]“. Google also tries to extract the searcher’s motivation from such queries. A search like [seo wikipedia] is different than [cheap seo] or [seo.com]. Depending on the query Google will attempt to find the right kind of website. So when you sell something you better add the appropriate modifier.
  • Length (70 characters) – Google will only show 70 characters on its search results page (SERP) so you want to make sure that the most important stuff is at the beginning while the brand is at the end. This item has been suggested by @SorbetDigital
  • Stop Words – Stop words are words that get ignored by Google, or are not useful in the title tag and search results itself in most cases. “And” is such a word. The less of them the better but some people really search for phrases containing stop words. In these cases you may rank better when you actually use one. “SEO UK” is not the same as “SEO in the UK”.
  • Numbers – Numbers, that is digits, not written numbers, are quite popular on the Web these days, especially on social media. The top 10 ways to do something are better than just ways to do it. When it comes to search though most people don’t use numbers or digits. On the other hand your click through rate (CTR) might still depend on the numbers contained in your title tag. Would you prefer 10, 30 or 101 ways to do something? It depends on the context but in many cases you will go for the higher number as a searcher.


  • Hyphens – While in English people don’t use as many hyphens as for instance in German using a hyphen is a good way to rank for different keyphrases while only adding it once. For instance sports-car in your title tag would be both recognized as [sports car] and [sportscar] in search results. While this works sometimes without the hyphen workaround in many cases you need to assist Google to rank for both versions of a keyphrase.
  • Commas – Commas are not a good way to separate your keywords in the title tag. Google basically discounts title tags with commas as a useless list of keywords. A comma is not only a waste of space in your title tag it raises a red flag: Your title tag appears to be a victim of keyword stuffing, a search engine spam “technique” from a decade ago.
  • Pipes – Many people prefer to use pipes as separators these days, that is using this character here “|” as in “SEO|PPC”. A pipe has no particular meaning beyond just “separator”. This is both a pro as a con. Some SEO practitioners advise not to use them at all because otherwise you look like an SEO and get down-ranked for that. This may be a “conspiracy theory” but the pipe is usually not used in written language so that it looks a bit artificial. While I sometimes use it I prefer hyphens and slashes in many cases.
  • Slashes – Everybody uses slashes “/” in URLs. You can use them in title tags as well and even be grammatically correct. A slash basically means “and” or “or”. I often use a slash for synonyms or for lists of phrases.
  • Other Separators – There are others separators you van use in your title tag. A plus “+”, a dot “.”, a number sign “#”, an ampersand or angle quotes “<”, “>” that can be used, especially when combined. Something like Search Marketing > SEO > Onsite Optimization can make sense in a title tag. This example also looks similar to a breadcrumbs menu so that people can recognize it’s meaning as a hierarchy. This item has also been suggested by @rishil
  • Misc. Special Characters – There are special characters out there that can lead to trouble though, either by not being displayed correctly by browsers itself or by confusing the search engines. Thus using very exotic special characters may have a negative impact. They can stick out as well and get the searcher’s attention on the other hand.
  • Blanks/Spaces – Most people use blanks or spaces as separators by default. As long as the title tag reflects a sentence structure it works quite well as in “the sky is blue”. Some people tend to list keywords using spaces though. The outcome is something like this: “SEO Services SEO Company India Search Engine Optimization (SEO) India”. While such a title may rank well, it’s #1 for [seo india] right now, the very poor readability and spammy appearance will result in a lower CTR.


  • Keyword Proximity – Not only keyword order is important also keyword proximity. A title tag like “SEO blog” will rank better for the keyphrase [seo blog] than “SEO, PPC and social media marketing blog” not only due to the number of keywords contained and thus lack of focus but also because the words “SEO” and “blog” are very wide apart.
  • Keyword Repetition – A few years ago it was a best practice to repeat your keyword twice in your title tag once varying it slightly. In recent years Google recognizes more and more variations. Thus you don’t have to repeat as many of them anymore. Keyword repetition can have both a positive or a negative impact on your ranking. Especially repeating a keyword more than twice can lead to a penalty for keyword stuffing, unless it really makes sense semantically.
  • Title Tag Repetition – By title tag repetition I mean repeating the same title tag on the same page. Many people accidentally use the same title tags on two or more pages. This is in most cases bad for your SEO when it comes to Google. Google will display just two results from the same site so having more than two pages with the same title tag does not make sense. It’s just duplicate content. You can assign the same title tag to the print version of your document but even there you can change it slightly by adding the obvious “print version” modifier. Each title tag should be unique.
  • Singular, plural – The most accepted method of repetition in one and the same title tag is the singular/plural variation. Example: iPhone/iPhones. It’s been widely used in recent years but Google does a better job by now of finding both the singular and plural versions independently from the query unless it really matters. Someone searching for [paris hotels] e.g. is looking for a list of them while a searcher typing [paris hotel] just searches for the best or most renowned one. This item has also been suggested by @jaamit
  • Synonyms – Synonyms are another legitimate way to add repetition to the title tag. Cars/Autos or Bikes/Bicycles are good examples here. Some SEO practicioners use multiple of them. I am by now not as fond of this technique anymore as Google recognizes more and more synonyms by now. This item has also been suggested by @rishil
  • Acronyms – Acronyms or abbreviations get treated almost like synonyms. Just search for [search engine optimization] and you’ll notice that some snippets in the SERPS only contain the acronym “SEO”. Depending on your priorities you can add both, the complete term and the abbreviations or just the acronym. In case you want to save space you can rank for the whole keyphrase just by using the acronym. Otherwise you can repeat your keyphrase once using the whole term, once only the short version.
  • Brand Names – In recent months Google has actually more than once changed the way it treats brand names in search results. The trend is to focus more on brands than solely on generic keywords and phrases. A brand can actually boost your organic ranking when many people already search for it. Don’t rely solely on generic terms in your title tag. Try to use a brand, be it a personal brand or a corporate one.



  • Domain Matching – Exact match domains have a strong advantage in search results on Google and elsewhere. A domain like SEO.com greatly improves your ranking for a generic term like [seo] as long as you don’t make some big mistakes elsewhere in your SEO campaign.
  • Domain Mentioning – Does the domain mention the keyword? It doesn’t have to match it completely. A combination like brandseo.com or seo-brand.com is good enough to be mentioned in the title tag along the actual keyphrase. A title tag like “SEO Services by Cool-SEO.com” can give you an additional boost on Google.
  • URI Matching – Some people will disagree but IMHO title tags matching the actual URL structure are better than those that don’t match it. This may look a bit automated and get down-ranked on large scale websites but on small business sites it’s the way to go. So when your URL is domain.com/seo-services add “SEO Services” to your title tag as well.
  • h1/2 etc. Matching – Again, this here is my own opinion. Matching h1 or h2 tags on your page will support your title tag as a ranking factor. On the other hand when they don’t match you lose out a bit of relevancy.
  • Text Matching – Content should always reflect the title tag. In pages where there is not a single mention of the keyphrase found in the title tag, the title tag itself won’t have as much of an impact.
  • Relevancy – Google may select the display title tag from three different places – The website, DMOZ, or it may be auto generated by Google depending on which Google deems most relevant. This item has been suggested by @GuavaUK


Advanced SEO for title tags

  • Use click-through rate data from AdWords to help find the perfect call to action, and work it into the title . This item has been suggested by @SharkSEO
  • Load two different titles for Google News and organic search by modifying the title after 12 hours. This item has been suggested by @GuavaUK
  • Use snippet tools to see how it all looks to improve CTR. This item has been suggested by @SEO_Doctor
  • Big brands should not put their name in the homepage title – let Google use the DMOZ title to get better CTR. This item has been suggested by @patrickaltoft
  • The same as above but use both to target both generic keyword and brand name. This item has been suggested by @rishil



Additional title tag optimization resources from elsewhere in the SEO industry:


Do you have something to add about title tags and SEO? Do it in the comments please! I may add it to the post itself.





© SEOptimise – Thinking of attending SMX London in May 2010? get a 15% discount code!

Responsibility and authority

Many people struggle at work because they want more authority.

It turns out you can get a lot done if you just take more responsbility instead. It's often offered, rarely taken.

(And you can get even more done if you give away credit, relentlessly).

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marți, 31 august 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Oregon Tax Revenue from Measure 66 is 50% Short of Predictions; Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike

Posted: 31 Aug 2010 09:15 PM PDT

From the dysfunctional state of Oregon comes news that Measure 66 fell about 50% short of its revenue predictions. Balance that with 4.75% pay hikes and it adds up with a continuing refusal by Oregon to address its problems.

Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike

5 percent pay increase for Oregon state union employees begins Wednesday
A step pay increase of nearly 5 percent for Oregon state workers represented by unions goes into effect Wednesday. The 4.75 percent increase will cost the state as much as $16 million through the end of the two-year budget period.
Measure 66 Falls Short

Oregon tax revenues from Measure 66 coming up short of predictions
Early indicators suggest the state won't receive nearly as much as officials expected from a tax increase on wealthy Oregonians -- raising questions of whether January's bitterly fought election was worth it.

The latest numbers show Measure 66, which set higher tax rates on households making more than $250,000 a year, and on individual filers making half that, has brought in about $70 million in additional collections to date.

"We're thinking we're right around half of what we expected about this time," said Paul Warner, head of the Legislative Revenue Office.
Here's the deal. Oregon raised taxes for the benefit of unions and now they have to raise taxes again because the state only got half as much revenue from the tax hike as expected. When does the madness stop?

I have written about Oregon a lot recently.

Dysfunctional Oregon

August 22, 2010: Dysfunctional Oregon
Sight unseen, I am willing to state that Oregon should get rid of all 64 state boards, no matter what they are supposed to do. Sight seen, it's time Oregonian voters relegate Gov. Ted Kulongoski to the ash heap of history.
Overoptimism Oregon Style

August 18, 2010: Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected"
In July of 2009 state revenue projections were $222.8 million to the plus side. Now just one year later, smack in the midst of a "recovery", a $577.2 million June 2010 deficit is too optimistic by as much as another $500 million.

Congratulations of sorts go to Oregon for winning the blue ribbon for unfounded optimism.

Oregon has already cut state spending by 9%. Another 9% may be on the way.
We can now add Measure 66 to the list of overoptimistic misses in Oregon.

Edge of the Financial Chasm

July 25, 2010: Edge of Financial Chasm
Four Problems Oregon Faces.

  • Problem 1: Our income is shrinking
  • Problem 2: We have more people in need
  • Problem 3: We've locked up a lot of money
  • Problem 4: We can't grow our way out

End of the Line for Meaningful Can-Kicking Delays


When it comes to state budgets, the low lying fruit has been picked. Indeed all the fruit has been picked and next year's harvest has been spoken for as well. Thus it's the end of the line for state's ability to kick the can down the road in a meaningful way, if employment does not dramatically pick up soon.

Here's a hint: it won't.
Oregon Taxpayers at Huge Risk over PERS

July 24, 2010: Oregon's Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) in Deep Trouble, Taxpayers on the Hook
If we finish the year here the system will only be 70% funded. Pray tell what happens if the stock market finished the year down a modest 15% and is flat next year?

Notice the article says "Actual pension rates vary by individual employer". Although the rates will vary, it is not "employers" who pick up the tab. Rather it is taxpayers who have to pay taxes to pick up the tab.

If articles like the one quoted explained things properly, there would be much more needed outrage.

The system is broke and the only way to fix it is to get rid of it. Defined benefit plans at taxpayer expense have to go.
Oregon Faces Decade of Budget Deficits

May 23, 2010: Governor's Study Shows Oregon Faces Decade of Budget Deficits; Support for Unions Wanes in Illinois
A study conducted by Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski shows that Oregon will not be bailed out by a rebounding economy, assuming of course the economy rebounds at all.

Oregon Overestimates the Recovery, Underestimates What Needs to be Done

My sense is that states are all overestimating what the recovery will do. That aside, Oregon is a step ahead of others in realizing the recovery alone will not fix the problem.

The report made no recommendations even though it is crystal clear what needs to happen. For starters, the state needs to kill defined benefit plans for new hires. Next, the state needs to outsource everything possible with the goal of getting rid of all public unions.

Anything else is just pecking at the fringes of the problem.
Business Owners Move Out

January 27, 2010: Oregon's Death Spiral; Business Owners Say "I'm moving out"
On Tuesday, unions in Oregon won a charred earth victory that will drive already troubled Oregon, straight off the cliff.

Oregon voters passed Measure 66 which raises tax rates on individuals who earn more than $125,000 and couples with incomes greater than $250,000. Voters also passed Measure 67 which increases business taxes.

Complete fools in Oregon just voted to save bloated union salaries and pensions, while driving away the real source of tax revenue, private business.

Unions that take hold of states inevitably wreck them. Oregon should take a good hard look in the mirror. It will see a reflection of Michigan. Good luck with that.
Look's like that was a decent call on Measure 66.

Increased taxes will drive away business. For whose benefit are these tax hikes? Unions that need to be eliminated. Oregon's problems cannot and will not go away as long as political pandering to unions continues.

Public union salaries and benefits are Oregon's biggest problem.

A tip of the hat to Oregon Live for excellent articles on the economic plight of Oregon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?

Posted: 31 Aug 2010 12:20 PM PDT

Here is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link.
Monday's market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday's rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth and negative volume. In Friday's rally, the bulls had had a similar 90% advantage. Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors says 26 of the last 88 trading days have been 90% days – one way or another. Any wonder the public is wary.
Are these 90% Days a Good Thing?

While the big boys push the market around, small investors have thrown in the towel and are not coming back.

Market volume now consists of black boxes pushing all stocks one way or the other on 30% of the days. Is this a good thing? For who? Investors or Goldman Sachs?

Holding the Line

Today, the 1040 level on the S&P held for about the 8th time on "fabulous" news consumer confidence rose to 53. Bear in mind number in the 70's are typical of recession lows.

How long the 1040 level can hold is a mystery, but each bounce seems to be weaker and weaker.

Last Friday, I noted Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; while asking "what's next?"

We have a partial answer already. Treasuries have regained the entire selloff that started (and ended) on the "great news" that 2nd quarter GDP was +1.6% instead of the expected +1.4%. Nevermind that growth was revised down twice from above +2.5% to +1.6%.

Looking ahead, I expect GDP to be negative in the 3rd quarter.

Art Cashin's 17.6 Year Cycles

A little over a year ago Art Cashin commented Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle
Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights. Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt.

"There was no 'stimulus' in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it."

Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle."

"It's like the Biblical story of the fat and lean years. During the fat, you can throw a dart at the wall, and anything you buy goes up."

He believes one such cycle spanned 1982 to 2000. And he notes that from "1966 to 1982, the Dow went to 1,000 — then went back down."
Barry Ritholtz described the 17.6 year cycle in Art Cashin on Secular Cycles
"Back On The Cycle – David Rosenberg, formerly chief economist at Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff was a guest host on CNBC's Squawkbox this morning. During the discussion he alluded to an 18 year cycle in the market. Not to quibble but many traders have thought of it as the 17.6 year cycle. Here's how I outlined it back in May 2002: Yesterday, as the elders were being asked about the hiding place of the great Bull Market one of the fogeys mentioned the "near 18 year cycle." Like the fat and lean years, it refers to so-called "easy" times to make money in the market versus times requiring much harder work. The fogeys suggested it was near 18 years because it was approximately 17 years, 7 months. For ease of explanation to the juniors, one of the fogeys decimalized the number as 17.6 years so they could use their calculators. He then postulated this example – Let's say the markets topped out in about February 2000. Let's call that 2000.2. Subtract 17.6 and your back in about July 1982 (1982.60). The Dow was around 900. So you could see why those were a fat (easy) 17 years. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around January of 1965 and the Dow is around 900. (Yup – just like 1982.) Many twists and turns in those 17 years. Lots of chances to make money. But you had to work for every penny. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around May of 1947. The war is over. The Dow is around 170. Lots of prosperity ahead. Take away 17.6 and you are back around Sept of 1929 and the Dow is around 350. He began to go on. The juniors had had enough. Folks don't like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. Having lived through two of those cycles, we can attest to the work cycle."
From where the market is today, Cashin is essentially describing the Japanese scenario of two lost decades. That has been my preferred scenario for quite a long time.

Japan's Lost Decades Rallies



If Cashin is correct, and I believe he is, it's another 7 years of nowhere at best for the stock market. Nonetheless, there will be trading opportunities in both directions as the above chart from Business Insider shows.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Movie Attendance Drops to 1997 Level; Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise; Last Hurrah for Housing

Posted: 31 Aug 2010 09:42 AM PDT

Movie attendance is down but increased prices made up the difference for now. Bloomberg reports Summer Movie Box-Office Attendance Falls to Lowest Since 1997
Summer movie attendance fell to the lowest level since 1997, while soaring ticket prices produced record revenue for Hollywood studios and theater owners.

The number of tickets sold from the first weekend of May through the U.S. Labor Day holiday is expected to drop 2.6 percent to 552 million, Hollywood.com Box-Office said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. That would be the lowest attendance since summer moviegoers bought 540.3 million tickets in 1997.

"The movies just didn't excite people the way they needed to," Paul Dergarabedian, president of Hollywood.com Box-Office, said in an interview. "When you raise prices and perceive that quality goes down, you have a major problem."

Summer box-office revenue will rise 2.4 percent to a record $4.35 billion in the U.S. and Canada as higher prices more than make up for the lower attendance, Hollywood.com estimates. The average ticket price will increase 5.1 percent to $7.88 from last year's $7.50, the biggest gain since a 6.3 percent jump in 2000, Hollywood.com said.
The price-conscious majority appears to be overwhelmed by the price-insensitive wealthy, at least for the time being. How much longer this lasts with cheap movie rentals and another downturn in the economy remains to be seen.

Regardless, the results portray an increasing dichotomy between the "haves" and the "have-nots".

As long as Hollywood can get away with inceasing prices, they will do just that, even if it means an increasing percentage of customers are "priced out".

Last Hurrah for Housing

Case-Shiller Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise More Than Forecast
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than forecast in June from a year earlier, reflecting the influence of a government tax incentive and a sign the market was stabilizing before sales plunged in July.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 4.2 percent from June 2009, the group said today in New York. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3.5 percent advance.

The Case-Shiller index is a moving three-month average, which means the June data are still being influenced by transactions in April and May that benefitted from the government incentive. A pullback in demand since the credit ended, mounting foreclosures and an unemployment rate near a 26- year high may weigh on prices in coming months.

Nationally, prices increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter from the same time last year and were up 2.3 percent from the previous three months.

San Francisco, San Diego

Fifteen of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a year-over-year increase, led by a 14 percent gain in San Francisco and an 11 percent increase in San Diego.

Compared with the prior month, 17 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase on an unadjusted basis, led by 2.5 percent gains in Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis. Two cities were little changed and Las Vegas fell 0.6 percent.

Builders such as KB Home and Lennar Corp. reported falling sales after April 30, the deadline for homebuyers to sign contracts to purchase a home to qualify for the extended tax credit. The deadline to close transactions by June 30 was later extended to Sept. 30.

Donald Tomnitz, chief executive officer of D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said he welcomes the end of federal homebuyer tax credits that boosted sales earlier in the year.

Back to Normal

"I don't want the tax credit to be re-enacted or be recreated or extended," Tomnitz said on an Aug. 3 conference call with investors. "We want to get back to a normalized market."

Foreclosures may be an obstacle for the market for much of the year. A record 269,962 U.S. homes were seized from delinquent owners in the second quarter as lenders set a pace to claim more than 1 million properties by the end of 2010, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based data company.
Last Hurrah for Housing

Case-Shiller is a backward looking index. The increasing number of foreclosures, the complete collapse in new home sales, a massive increase in inventory, and the end of tax credits all suggest we are near the end of the line for this bounce in home prices.

Interestingly, even the home builders are against another home tax credit. Is that reflective of the massive distortions caused by the credit, the realization the tax credit was useless, or the fact that homebuilders recognize there is little chance Congress will back another tax credit?

Regardless, here's the deal: New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low. As a followup please see How Many New Home Sales Was That?

Expect to see new all time low prices in some cities later this year or next year as pent-up demand dries up along with incentives that merely brought that demand forward.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


How Many New Home Sales Was That?

Posted: 31 Aug 2010 12:08 AM PDT

People are still emailing me, making a mountain out of a molehill of a Rosenberg statement I quoted in Burning Down the House; New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low; Nationwide, Zero New Homes Sold Above 750K
I failed to comment yesterday on the huge miss by economists on consensus new home sales, but Rosenberg has some nice comments today in Breakfast with Dave.
The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row. Only 1,000 units priced above 500,000 moved last month. That's it! Over 80% of the homes that the builders managed to sell were priced for under $300,000. Just another sign of how this remains a full-fledged buyers' market — at least for the ones that can either afford to put down a downpayment or are creditworthy enough to secure a mortgage loan (keeping in mind that 25% of the household sector does have a sub-600 FICO score).
How Many is Zero?

There are a couple of issues here.

1. New home sales are recorded at contract signing. So recent closings at a higher rate do not count. Nor do existing home sales. Many of those complaining were looking at closing data or existing home sales.

2. The other factor is rounding error. Rosenberg should not have been so emphatic.

From the Census Bureau New Home Sales Spreadsheet

Table 2 - $750K home sold
"(Z) Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent."

Anyone targeting Rosenberg's statement is making a mountain out of a molehill.

Let me put it this way "There was a statistically irrelevant number of new home sales above $750K, somewhere between zero and 500".

This is not worth the amount of attention it has received.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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