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luni, 14 noiembrie 2011
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Seth's Blog : Adversity and the route to success
Adversity and the route to success
Resource-rich regions often fall behind in developing significant industrial and cultural capabilities. Japan does well despite having very few resources at all.
Well-rounded and popular people rarely change the world. The one voted most likely to succeed probably won't.
Genuine success is scarce, and the scarcity comes from the barriers that keep everyone from having it. If it weren't for the scarcity, it wouldn't be valuable, after all.
It's difficult to change an industry, set a world record, land big clients, or do art that influences others. When faced with this difficulty, those with other, seemingly better options see the barrier and walk away.
Why bother? The thinking is that we can just pump some more oil or smile and gladhand our way to an acceptably happy outcome.
On the other hand, people who believe they have fewer options take a look at the barrier and realize that even though it will be difficult to cross, it's the single best option they've got.
This is one of the dangers of overfunded/undertested startup companies. Without an astute CEO in charge, they begin to worry more about not losing what they've already got than the real reason they started the project in the first place.
More Recent Articles
- Independence and subjugation
- Lifetime value of a customer/cost per customer
- The unreasonable customer
- The starfish and the long tail have trouble getting along
- The extraordinary revolution of media choice
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duminică, 13 noiembrie 2011
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Australia in Recession; Spending Slide Spreads from Housing to Service Sector; Australia's Double Whammy; US Dollar Safe Haven?
- Yuan Deposit Growth Slows; Investors Dump Yuan for Dollars; What Would Happen if China Floated the Yuan?
- Slovenian Economist Emails "Our Banking System is on Brink of Collapse"; Housing Crash and Incompetent Bureaucrats Blamed
| Posted: 13 Nov 2011 08:29 PM PST The Australian economy is toast. Forget about GDP and distortions of it thereof. Australia's housing bust will linger for years, and as I expected it has spilled over into retail spending and now the service sector. Westpac, Australia's second biggest lender says Spending Slide Spreads KEY parts of Australia's services sector are being hit by the slowdown in consumer spending.Australia's Double Whammy The above article by The Age goes on and on. That snip is about half of it. This certainly is not unexpected (at least by me), as a natural progression of the housing bust. Moreover, Australia faces a "double whammy". China is slowing and that will effect commodity prices as well as Australia's export sector. Those thinking Australia will be immune from recession because of China have another thing coming. Indeed, Australia will bust even if commodity prices stay firm. US Dollar Safe Haven? Those playing the Australian dollar as a safe haven might wish to reconsider. For more on currencies, please see Perfect Storm; Eight Reasons to be Bullish on the US Dollar. By the way, I need to point out my liking of the US dollar is in comparison to other fiat currencies (not gold), and that my opinion fluctuates with the circumstances. Long-term, the US dollar is not a safe haven. This is not a change in stance. This has been my position all along as evidenced by my opinions on gold stated numerous times over the years. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 13 Nov 2011 05:03 PM PST Inquiring minds are reading the South China Morning Post which says Yuan deposit growth slowing Yuan deposits in Hong Kong may have dropped significantly last month due to falling trade volumes with the mainland and a weakening of the currency in the offshore market, analysts said. Bankers and analysts said while the brake could be a positive for local banks in the short term, if the trend continued it could impact their strategy to bet big on yuan business. The slowdown could also drag the pace of the internationalisation of the yuan, while not derailing it.Investors Dump Yuan for Dollars Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets had lengthy comments and an interesting chart on the above article via email. Here is a short text snip (minus the chart) in the sake of fairness. His complete article will appear on his website shortly. Pettis writes .... China of course suffers less from flight capital risk than Europe, but hot money does seem less eager than in the past to enter the country, and outflows seem still to be increasing. Regular readers know that I have always been skeptical about the excitement over RMB internationalization, and I consider much of the evidence to be exaggerated or misleading. What drove the redenomination of trade into RMB, I have always believed, was not transactional interest but largely speculative interest.What Would Happen if China Floated the Yuan? For months China was attempting to slow appreciation of the Yuan to the consternation of the Fed, Congress, and Treasury Secretary Geithner. Now China is acting to prop up the Yuan. Thus, and contrary to popular myth about the alleged massively undervalued Yuan, were China to let the Yuan float right now, the currency might sink because "hot money" has given up. Imagine the uproar in Congress if China did float the Yuan and it held steady or dropped. A slowing China is bullish for the dollar (at least in isolation). For details and a complete discussion, please see Perfect Storm; Eight Reasons to be Bullish on the US Dollar. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 13 Nov 2011 09:56 AM PST In response to last Friday's post Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry in 2007 I received an interesting email from a Slovenian economist who says "Our banking system is on the brink of collapse." Luka Gubo writes ... Hello Mish!The surprising thing to me was not his candor, but the willingness of Luka to share his full name. A quick search led me to Finančni blog, where he shares his views. Thanks Luka. Good luck to you. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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Seth's Blog : Independence and subjugation
Independence and subjugation
Tribal management often involves power struggles. One thing that's been shown again and again--subjagating another tribe, taking it over--it almost never works. It can take hundreds of years before the two tribes get into sync, if ever.
On the other hand, granting independence to a rising tribe, letting them go--this is harder to swallow but it generally leads to a quick and beneficial relationship between the two new groups.
When Atari was struggling after it was acquired by Warner, many top programmers left, some to start companies like Activision. Activision, ironically, was one of the bright spots for Atari after that. The passion and creativity of the nascent group was exactly what the original group needed.
Or consider the excellent relationship that the UK has with both the United States and India. In both cases, the wars of independence weren't as nearly brutal or as drawn out as they could have been.
While conventional views of power and authority seem to indicate that you should co-opt and capture other tribes, you can often achieve more by freeing your own people to maximize their vision alongside yours.
More Recent Articles
- Lifetime value of a customer/cost per customer
- The unreasonable customer
- The starfish and the long tail have trouble getting along
- The extraordinary revolution of media choice
- There's nothing wrong with having a plan
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sâmbătă, 12 noiembrie 2011
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Le Voyage de Fubar - Elephants Take Flight
- EFSF Bail-Out Fund Buys Its Own Debt Because Not Enough Others Will
- Trim Tabs CEO on Entitlements, Government Spending, Stock Buybacks, and What's Propping Up Equity Markets
| Le Voyage de Fubar - Elephants Take Flight Posted: 12 Nov 2011 10:36 PM PST Sunday funnies returns to celebrate the resignations of Greek prime minister George Papandreou and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. We bid them "fond" farewell on their long overdue farewell tour.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy also have farewell tours scheduled (they just don't know it yet). The image, sent by a reader who did not wish any credit says "I re-worked a 1932 French children book cover Voyage de Babar. Hope you like it." The reworked image initially only contained Merkel and Sarkozy. I suggested adding Papandreou and Berlusconi and the words "next up" and there you have it. The true original is in public domain, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Babar2.jpg. In the spirit of Sunday Funnies I invite you to read a true comic sent in by the father of an 11 years old posted earlier. In case you missed it please see European Crisis Through Eyes of 11-Year Old in Comic he Created Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| EFSF Bail-Out Fund Buys Its Own Debt Because Not Enough Others Will Posted: 12 Nov 2011 03:48 PM PST To raise "bailout" money the EFSF sells bonds. In its first auction after the new Merkozy agreement, not enough investors wanted the garbage and the fund ended up buying some of its own bonds. The Telegraph reports Eurozone bail-out fund has to resort to buying its own debt The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) last week announced it had successfully sold a €3bn 10-year bond in support of Ireland.Bizarre Setup The EFSF raises money by selling bonds that few investors want. So it buys its own debt effectively raising no cash. Is this supposed to work? Given there are still no terms on the EFSF debt, agreements on leverage, amount of guarantees, etc., the amazing thing is not that the EFSF had to buy some of its debt, but rather anyone else was interested at all. This helps explain why the IMF went on a tour of Russia and China begging them to buy the garbage. No one else wants it, and the EFSF suspected as much in advance. For details on the IMF dog-and-pony show in Asia, please see World has Major Funding Gap; IMF Begs Russia and China for Money; Italy and Greece Demand Deposits Collapse; Run on Greek Banks? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 12 Nov 2011 09:32 AM PST TrimTabs President & CEO Charles Biderman discusses how global financial markets are suffering from years of borrowing to pay entitlements to citizens, stock buybacks by corporations, and other topics in a short 2:16 video. Biderman had predicted a collapse in equity markets but says stochttp://beta.blogger.com/img/blank.gifk buybacks by corporations have, for now, prevented that collapse. Ending Quote "In 2009 with interest rates dirt cheap companies have sold around $3 trillion in bonds and about $800 billion in new shares. Companies are currently the only buyers of stocks as individuals remain net sellers. $2 billion a day of company buying can take the market higher. That is until companies stop buying and start selling lots of new shares." Here is a link if the video does not play: Biderman's Daily Rant for 11/3/2011 For every buyer there is a seller and vice versa. Moreover, stocks can go up or down whether corporations are buying or selling. However, it is important to note that the frequently touted corporate "cash on the sidelines" is for the most part debt. A handful of tech companies with huge piles of cash and little debt is the exception, not the rule. If companies squander their "cash" on buybacks, they will once again be back in a situation of high debt and no cash when the market bottoms, because buybacks or not, the market is overvalued and eventually will get to where it's going. BTW, here is something I came across the other day: A link to all the videos I have used in this blog. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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