duminică, 10 martie 2013

Seth's Blog : Connected, portable or aware

 

Connected, portable or aware

There's a little bit of a rush to bring content into app form. It's so easy to make an ebook and cram it with videos, or to turn your how-to guide into something that looks slick on an iPad. I think of these electronic projects as the new coffee table books. Beautiful, but unfortunately, not widely read.

The problem is this: when you turn this work into an app or augmented ebook, you're not moving to a less crowded market, not moving to a place where you will earn more attention from strangers. In fact, unless your app is connected, portable and/or aware, the only people who are likely to use it are people who were already your fans. (Not that there's anything wrong with that, if that's your goal.)

Connected: the app works better when other people are also using it. Like the fax machine (what did the first owner of a fax do with it?), these apps have a hurdle at first, but get more and more appealing as the word spreads. Instagram and Twitter are connected.

Portable: sure, PDFs and paper books are portable, but there are certain forms of content where having the content in your pocket is really useful. I'd put frequently updated, timely content (like the weather) or content I'll need to refer to again and again on this list.

Aware: Our mobile devices know where we are, and in some cases, know what we've just done. Telematics opens the door to a huge number of breakthroughs, only a few of which we've seen exploited to date.

Slick is not the goal. I know that apps are shiny and new and sexy, but if your goal is impact, you'll need at least one of these three elements--or you're better off in a different format. More than a decade later, email and free-to-share digital text and video remain killer apps if you're trying to spread the word.


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sâmbătă, 9 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Not Enough Fingers to Contain the Leak in the Dyke

Posted: 09 Mar 2013 04:31 PM PST

As I have repeatedly stated "Eventually, Will Come a Time When .... "a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."

Predicting when and where that happens is not easy. We have been following Greece, Spain, and Italy.

Could it be another country that gets the ball rolling? Actually, the most likely occurrence will be in a country that few are watching.

Please consider Dutch support EU referendum
Dutch lawmakers have been forced to debate a referendum on any further transfers of power to the EU after a citizens' petition demanding a plebiscite garnered 40,000 signatures in two weeks.

Although parliament is not obliged to follow through with legislation, the move underlines the surge euroscepticism in one of the EU's founding members, which could pose an obstacle to any further integration needed to bolster the eurozone.

Dutch lawmakers have been forced to debate a referendum on any further transfers of power to the EU after a citizens' petition demanding a plebiscite garnered 40,000 signatures in two weeks.

Although parliament is not obliged to follow through with legislation, the move underlines the surge euroscepticism in one of the EU's founding members, which could pose an obstacle to any further integration needed to bolster the eurozone.

Obligations? What Obligations?

Politicians are never under "obligation" to do anything. However, they are subject to voter backlash. In gerrymandered legislative districts in the US, voters do not have much of a chance.

Elsewhere, that is not necessarily the case as shown by the massive rise of support for comedian Beppe Grillo whose Five Star Movement is now the largest political party in Italy.

Justified Backlash

I am not the only one to note the justified backlash against the nannycrats. Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog says a "storm is Brewing" in his article called Tone-Deaf Eurocrats
What makes Grillo suspect to the eurocratic elites is that he is an anti-establishment figure; that he doesn't regard euro membership as sacrosanct, and intends to increase the level of direct democracy in Italy. This is not to say that the man's economic policy ideas are necessarily better than what has been on tap so far, as he has a number of ideas that strike one as steeped in a kind of naïve romantic socialism.

The problem the EU faces is however that one cannot simply continue to ignore the increasing political backlash across Europe. In fact, Grillo's ascendance appears a relatively small problem compared to what could possibly happen if a few more years with no light at the end of the tunnel pass. Desperate people will eventually flock to anyone who promises them to shake off the yoke of EU diktats, and that could well lead to the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.

 The central problem is then how exactly to achieve economic growth, and it can certainly not be achieved by deficit spending or manipulation of the money supply. There can be only one way: radical pro free market reform. Rehn and his colleagues in the eurocracy in the broader sense (i.e., including the national political leaders) must be prepared to surrender control and let the market economy work in as unhampered a manner as possible. The questions they should be asking themselves are: 'How can we do less? What regulations should be dismantled first? Which taxes and what spending can we cut as quickly as possible? What is the quickest way of replacing the the central bank directed banking cartel with free banking?'

Everything else is essentially a waste of time and effort, even if it should prove possible to kick the can down the road repeatedly. The current course is certainly fated to end in tears – eventually the political backlash will produce chaos, and usually chaos doesn't end well. As the protesters in Portugal have correctly intuited, it only tends to bring even worse snake oil sellers to power.
No Light at the End of the Tunnel

Pater wonders what might happen in a "few more years with no light at the end of the tunnel".

I rather doubt we get that far, and I am rather certain Pater would agree. Regardless, with all eyes now focused on Spain and Italy (way too late), it's time to move the spotlight to France and the Netherlands.

Eventually this mess is likely to blow sky high in multiple places at once. There are not enough fingers to contain the leak in this dyke.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

15 Year Old Kid Develops Foolproof Test for Pancreatic, Ovarian and Lung Cancer; Test Costs 3 Cents, Takes 5 Minutes

Posted: 09 Mar 2013 09:14 AM PST

Here's an inspiring story for the weekend. Jack Andraka, a fifteen year old freshman in high school, developed a paper sensor that could detect pancreatic, ovarian and lung cancer in five minutes for as little as 3 cents. He conducted his research at John Hopkins University.

Jack got the idea after a friend died of pancreatic cancer. His initial research started on Wikepedia, then after he had an idea, Jack approached 200 research labs. 199 labs turned him down. The 200th said "maybe".



Link if video does not play: Jack Andraka, My 3 Cents on Cancer

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


SEO Apps for Android Phones

Posted: 09 Mar 2013 01:45 AM PST

SEO is one of the most heard words these days. This is a technique which is used for improving the websites and increasing the traffic to them and thereby increasing the traffic to them. There are a large number of SEO apps for android phones let us see some important...
Read more »

Weekly Address: End the Sequester to Keep Growing the Economy

The White House Saturday, March 9, 2013
 

Weekly Address: End the Sequester to Keep Growing the Economy

In his weekly address, President Obama says that businesses have created jobs every month for three years straight – nearly 6.4 million altogether, and have added 246,000 new jobs in February. We must keep this momentum going, and that’s why the President recently met with Republican leaders to discuss how we can replace the harmful, arbitrary budget cuts, called the “sequester,” with balanced deficit reduction.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch this week's Weekly Address

In Case You Missed It

Here’s a quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov:

Violence Against Women Act: On Thursday, President Obama signed the Violence Against Women Act of 2013, which provides resources for thousands of victims of domestic violence, sexual assault, dating violence, and stalking. The renewed version of the law extends to protect LGBT victims, immigrants, Native Americans and victims of sex-trafficking. The act will ensure victims and survivors will have the resources they need. With survivors and advocates standing behind him President Obama recognized the significance of the day:

But everybody on this stage worked extraordinarily hard. Most of all, though, this is your day. This is the day of the advocates; the day of the survivors. This is your victory.

First Cabinet Meeting: On Monday, President Obama opened the 17th Cabinet meeting of his presidency and the first of the new term. The President welcomed to the table his newest cabinet members, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. In his remarks, President Obama shared his deep concerns of the harmful and automatic budget cuts known as the sequester and advocated for bipartisan solutions so Americans can be poised for progress:

So one of the things that I’ve instructed not just my White House but every agency is to make sure that, regardless of some of the challenges that they may face because of sequestration, we’re not going to stop working on behalf of the American people to make sure that we’re doing everything we can to continue to grow this economy and improve people’s prospects.

Trio Nominated: On Monday, President Obama announced three new nominations. The President tapped Sylvia Matthew Burwell to direct the Office of Management and Budget. Burwell, head of the Walmart Foundation, will become the next budget director and oversee our spending policies. She served as Deputy Chief of Staff to the President and Chief of Staff to the Secretary of the Treasury during the Clinton administration.

“As the granddaughter of Greek immigrants, she also understands that our goal when we put together a budget is not just to make the numbers add up,” said President Obama. “Our goal is also to reignite the true engine of economic growth in this country, and that is a strong and growing middle class -- to offer ladders of opportunity for anybody willing to climb them.”

Ernest Moniz was picked to become the Secretary of Energy. He previously served as Under Secretary of Energy under President Clinton. The physicist has been directing MIT’s Energy Initiative, which is working “to develop the technologies that can lead the country to more energy independence and also to new jobs.” 

Gina McCarthy was nominated to head the Environmental Protection Agency and brings a wealth of experience from her position as Assistant EPA Administrator. President Obama noted McCarthy has “focused on practical, cost-effective ways to keep our air clean and our economy growing.” 

Google Hangout with FLOTUS: On Monday, the First Lady participated in her first ever Google+ Hangout to promote Lets Move!, which is celebrating its third year. Her guests included parents, teachers, and schoolchildren for a conversation on the importance of physical activity for the health and well being of our children.

As Let’s Move! commemorates its third year, the project is developing Let’s Move! Active Schools. Besides working for healthy eating, the First Lady wants to show being active is fun and can lead to success in school. Check out the Let’s Move! Active Schools page and discover how you can create a healthy school for kids in your community.

National Consumer Protection Week: This week marked National Consumer Protection Week as government and private organizations provided tips and free materials online for Americans. The goal of the week is to encourage Americans to take full notice of their consumer rights and simply make better-informed choices in the marketplace. Consumer topics covered throughout the week have included credit & debt, identity theft, investing, scam alerts and technology.

100th Anniversary of Department of Labor: On Monday, the U.S. Department of Labor celebrated its 100th anniversary and launched a page in honor of the milestone. For the last century, the Labor Department has been at the forefront of helping working men and women renew the American Dream. The Department has given us many privileges we take for granted such as the 40-hour work week, family leave, retirement plans and the minimum wage among others.

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Seth's Blog : What's now?

 

What's now?

When I was starting out in the software business in 1983 (gasp), our home computer of choice was the Commodore 64. I vividly remember one day in the playtesting lab when the overworked floppy disk drive burst into flames. The surprising thing was that none of us were surprised. The entire infrastructure of the time just barely worked.

Twelve years later, on a sales call at Levi's ad agency in San Francisco, in the middle of a presentation, my PC laptop started spewing smoke. I didn't miss a beat. I shrugged, closed the cover and dropped it into a trash can.

Today, nothing is starting on fire. Today, a well-designed app looks fabulous, polished and stable, even though it was built by one person, in a garage. Today, email gets through. Today, we have a platform that (almost always) does what it says it will. We're all on the same OS (the internet). We can expect that any person we'd like to do business with, anywhere in the world, has a device we can use to reliably communicate with them...

If you've been waiting for the next big thing before you dive in, it's here.

No longer do we need to wonder, "what's next?" No, I think it's better to take a long look at, "what's now?"


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vineri, 8 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spoiling the "Great Employment News"

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 02:24 PM PST

This article originally appeared on MarketWatch under the title Jobs numbers are far worse than they look.

I selected my title from a humorous comment on MarketWatch by reader "Homer Price" who writes "Mike, What are you doing ? Trying to spoil the GREAT EMPLOYMENT news. Just wait until next year when the Unaffordable Care Act kicks in. THE BEST IS YET TO COME ............................. "

There are other interesting comments as well. Inquiring minds may wish to take a look. Now for my article ...

Economists were surprised by the massive "beat" in today's reported job numbers. The unemployment rate dropped .2 to 7.7% and the economy allegedly added 236,000 jobs.

Is that what really happened? No not really.

According to the household survey (on which the unemployment rate is based) the economy added a healthy 170,000 jobs. However, a whopping 446,000 of those jobs were part-time jobs. Simply put, the economy shed 276,000 full-time jobs.

The BLS labeled those 446,000 part-time jobs as "voluntary". I am not so sure.

A Gallup Survey yesterday on Jobs show the percentage of workers working part time but wanting full-time work was 10.1% in February, an increase from 9.6% in January, and the highest rate measured since January 2012.



Gallup notes "Although fewer people are unemployed now than a year ago, they are not migrating to full-time jobs for an employer. In fact, fewer Americans are working full-time for an employer than were doing so a year ago, and more Americans are working part time. Although part-time work is clearly better than no work at all, these are not the types of good jobs that millions of Americans are still searching for."

Obamacare Effect

Obamacare is in play. Recall that under Obamacare, the definition of full-time employment is 30 hours. The BLS cutoff is 34 hours. At 30 hours, companies have to pay medical benefits so they have been slashing the number of hours people work. This reduced the number of hours people worked and provided an incentive for many to take on an extra job.

We can see the effect in actual BLS data.

Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed



After declining for years, the percent of those working two or more jobs is again on the rise.

Multiple Jobholders



In the past month there was a surge of 679,000 in the number of people working multiple jobs. The seasonally-adjusted increase, as shown above, was 340,000.

One can look at the data two ways.

  1. The economy is getting better and more jobs are available
  2. People are working more jobs because their hours were cut and they need a second job

Evidence suggests more of the latter than the former.

Expect Downward Revision in Establishment Survey

The reported 236,000 surge in the establishment survey is not real. It will be revised away.

This is why: In the household survey one is either working or not, thus multiple jobs do not distort the reported unemployment rate (although there are many other distortions such as the participation rate and declining labor force).

The establishment survey, however, is distorted by people working multiple jobs. A surge in multiple-job workers would artificially hike the baseline number. I expect revisions later, probably huge downward revisions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Jobs +236,000, Unemployment Rate 7.7%, Part-Time Employment +446,000

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 09:14 AM PST

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey reports of +236,000 job.

For the first time in four months the establishment survey was accompanied by a healthy +170,000 surge in the household survey.

Let's dig deeper.

The economy added a whopping 446,000 part-time jobs. Thus, the economy shed 276,000 full-time jobs. Those part-time jobs were supposedly "on purpose".

It's fair to point out the volatile nature of part-time statistics, but the 446,000 increase is unusually large.

One possible explanation for the surge in voluntary part-time employment is retirees needing additional income. However, that theory is not consistent with a labor force shedding 130,000 workers.

Part-time employment for "economic reasons" rose by 15,000.

Those not in the labor force rose by 296,000 and the labor force itself fell by 130,000. Those factors, coupled with the massive rise in part-time employment explains the .2 drop in the unemployment rate.

Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) rose by 89,000, the first increase since October.

This is a decent report, but it is nowhere near as good as it looks at first glance, with obvious questions about part-time employment and duration of unemployment.

February BLS Jobs Report at a Glance

  • Payrolls +236,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment +170,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment -300,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +15,000 - Household Survey 
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work +446,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate -.02 at 77% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment -.01 to 14.3% - Household Survey
  • The Civilian Labor Force -130,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force  +296,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate -.01 to 63.5 - Household Survey


Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,693,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,473,000
  • In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,806,000 to 12,032,000 (a drop of 774,000)
  • Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) rose to 4,797,000 from last month's total of was 4,708,000, a net rise of 89,000
  • Percentage of long-term unemployment hopped up to 40.2% from last month's 38.1%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.


February 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Average weekly hours rose .1 to at 34.5 hours. A year ago average hours were 34.6 hours. Average hourly earnings rose .05 to $23.82.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013



Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Household Survey Data



Decline in Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 10%.

Part Time Status (in Thousands)



click on chart for sharper image

There are 7,988,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. This is a volatile series.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.3%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Duration of Unemployment



Long-term unemployment remains in a disaster zone with 38% of the unemployed in the 27 weeks or longer category.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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