vineri, 2 august 2013

Seth's Blog : The opposite of anxiety

 

The opposite of anxiety

I define non-clinical anxiety as, "experiencing failure in advance." If you're busy enacting a future that hasn't happened yet, and amplifying the worst possible outcomes, it's no wonder it's difficult to ship that work.

With disappointment, I note that our culture doesn't have an easily found word for the opposite. For experiencing success in advance. For visualizing the best possible outcomes before they happen.

Will your book get a great testimonial? Write it out. Will your talk move someone in the audience to change and to let you know about it? What did they say? Will this new product gain shelf space at the local market? Take a picture.

Writing yourself fan mail in advance and picturing the change you've announced you're trying to make is an effective way to push yourself to build something that actually generates that action.

One reason this is difficult is that we've got a false humility that pushes us to avoid it. The other is that when we're confronted with this possible success, we have to confront the fact that our current plan just isn't that good (yet), that this site or that menu item really isn't as good as we need it to be.

If you expect rejection, it's a lot easier to ship lousy stuff. Said that way, it's clear that this is a ridiculous strategy. Better to make it great now rather than mourn failure later.

Go ahead, write yourself some fan mail, in advance.

       

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Publicat de 1 la 03:22 0 comentarii

joi, 1 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Treasury Yields Surge Following Allegedly Good Data; Is Bernanke Getting the Message?

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 03:42 PM PDT

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes treasury yields are on the rise following allegedly good economic data.

For my take on the GDP, please see About that "Beat the Street" GDP Number. Nonetheless, the bond market has other ideas.

Historical Yield Curve - Monthly Close



click on chart for sharper image
  • $TYX 30-Year Green
  • $TNX 10-Year Orange
  • $FVX 05-Year Blue
  • $IRX 3-Month Brown

Market Gets Message

On July 17, Bernanke boldly stated Markets finally get message.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday admitted there has been some confusion as the central bank has tried to explain plans to scale back its stimulus policies, but said he thought financial markets were "beginning to understand our message."

Bernanke's comments came as he reiterated Wednesday that he expected the central bank to start tapering its bond-buying stimulus program this year. But, he emphasized, the Fed was not on a "preset course."
Talk is Cheap

Bernanke and numerous other Fed spokesmen attempted to talk yields lower following the huge surge since the beginning of May.

Let's tune in and see how well talk worked.

$TYX - 30 Year Yield Daily Chart



$TNX - 10 Year Yield Daily Chart



It appears the bond market may have had enough of Bernanke's talk. Is Bernanke getting the message?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

India Housing Bubble Still Expanding

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 10:08 AM PDT

This is a guest post from by Deepak Shenoy, an economic blogger at Capital Mind in India. Charts and analysis that follow are from Deepak.

RBI has released the latest data for their House Price Index and it looks like the mad pace of real estate price growth has mellowed, but only slightly. Price growth at an all India basis is now 19% from last year.



Unfortunately, RBI has not released information about transactions, so we don't know if volumes are up or down.

Housing prices were very high last quarter as well, with prices up 26% year on year. However, every city is different; some cities seem to have slowed down price growth while others have picked up pace significantly.

Mumbai and Delhi Still Red-Hot, But Slower Than Earlier Quarter

Mumbai shows YoY growth of just 11% after a scorching 30% growth in the December quarter (year on year).



Delhi, though, continues to be in scorched earth territory, moving up 33% from last year. Prices have gone up an annualized 30% or more since September 2011, and the index has now reached 259 from a 100 in March 2009 (a compounded growth of 27%, the highest of all cities).

Bangalore and Chennai Show Faster Growth



Bangalore hit 5% price growth in Q4 (March 2013). This is benign, for now.

Chennai is now at 26% price growth and again, looks like it has gone out of control.

Kolkata and Lucknow: The Hot Air Balloons



Kolkata has gone absolutely nuts with a 63% price growth, taking its own compounded price growth from 2009 to 27%, just behind Delhi.
Lucknow, with 29% YoY growth, is still among the fastest growers.
Note that the drop in transaction volumes in the previous quarter seems to have had no impact on price growth.

Jaipur grows 18%, Ahmedabad remains at 9%



Jaipur prics are up the highest since December 2010 (on a yoy growth basis).

Ahmedabad shows signs of softening, though prices have grown slower in the 2010-11 time frame.

Kanpur the weakest link



Kanpur shows a drop of over 21% on prices. Last time I was told of some inaccuracies in Kanpur in that much of the price is in "black" (paid in cash) and thus not recorded.

Compounded Growth Rate Since 2009 at 21%

As of March 2013, Prices have more than doubled since 2009. The All-India Index is at 211, from 100 in March 2009.



The bubble is intact.

But is the bubble bursting? QoQ growth is the second lowest since the data has been recorded – an all India QoQ growth level of 2.1% (versus 6.4% last quarter).

Credit will be constrained from July onwards, so it is quite likely that price growth is hit. Already, rental prices have flattened or reduced, and commercial rents and prices are down (speaking of the June quarter, from anecdotal information). A credit crunch could well cause developer defaults, and then prices will truly fall. For now, the bubble is well and truly visible.

End Deepak 

Needless to say  (but I am going to say it anyway), this India housing bubble is going to end very badly, especially for those who got in recently.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:11 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Prostitutes on Floating Barges in The Dutch town of Utrecht

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 07:11 PM PDT

The Dutch town of Utrecht is famous for two bizarre highlights: mechanical music museum and floating hookers on barges. Window prostitution occurs mainly along the Vecht to the Zandpad, also known as Red Bridge. The window prostitutes are working in houseboats . The windows are visible from the car, the use of the car is popular among prostitution customers. There are about 40 boats and 140 working girls.
















Most Beautiful Abandoned Places In The World

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 10:47 AM PDT

Stunning photos of abandoned places around the world.
















Office Tech: Then and Now [Infographic]

Posted: 01 Aug 2013 10:00 AM PDT

The AMC television show Mad Men does a great job glorifying the advertising industry of the 1960s but it's interesting to think how that office would look in today's world. Aside from the dress and cultural changes, much of the office technology employed in the times of Don Draper-esque office life has advanced and grown through time. Many of the processes of that era were laborious and slow while today's technologies focus on efficiency and speed.

Click on Image to Enlarge.
Publicat de 1 la 19:17 0 comentarii
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