luni, 26 octombrie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Cheap Chinese Car Knockoffs That Are Way Too Close To The Real Thing

Posted: 26 Oct 2015 06:05 PM PDT

Some of these cars are almost identical to the ones they're ripping off.

Dongfeng Crazy Soldier



Suzhou Eagle Carrie



Hongqi LS5



Lifan 320



Lifan 320



Shuanguan SCEO



Geely GE



Land Wind X7



Event K50



Venucia E30



Shuanghuan Noble



BYD S8



Hawtai B35



CH Auto Lithia



NATS GTR

Behind The Scenes Photos That Will Change The Way You See Famous Movies

Posted: 26 Oct 2015 03:11 PM PDT

Once you see these things you'll never be able to unsee them and they will change your favorite movies and TV shows forever.

















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Seth's Blog : 70% re-orders is a sweet spot

70% re-orders is a sweet spot

My latest book, Your Turn, just went back for its third and fourth printings, bringing the total to more than 100,000 copies in print.

I did some math on the orders and discovered that more than 70% of them were going to people who had previously ordered a copy.

This never happens.

It never happens because the book industry is built on the idea of inventing desire and then destroying it by selling the reader a copy. You never need two copies of a book, after all, and so there's an insatiable need for new readers.

In the case of Your Turn, though, the book is intentionally built and sold as a way of spreading an idea... once people see the benefit in spreading the idea, many of them decide to spread it more. Most people buy the 5 pack.

It occurs to me that 70% is almost a magic number for re-orders in just about any business. It means that new people are hearing about your work and showing up to try it, and it also signifies that there's a base audience that's counting on you to do what you promised.

How would your project change if you re-organized what you do to get to a sweet spot of re-orders? I had to take a leap in the creation, distribution and pricing of my book to create that dynamic. What would you need to do?

PS To celebrate the new print run, I just added a long lost video of me launching Linchpin in NYC in 2010. It's on the Your Turn page, about a third of the way down. Read the copy near the top to get the password.

Thanks for the work you do and the impact you make.

       

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Seth's Blog : First, interact



First, interact

The best way to tell if your speech is going to go well is to give your speech. 

The best way to find out if your new product has market appeal is to try to sell it.

The best way to become a teacher is to teach.

There's a huge need for study, refinement and revision. No question about it.

None of it means anything, though, if you are hiding from the market.

There used to be a dangerous myth: the genius in an attic, who arrives one day, fully formed, with a grant, a Pulitzer and a string of accolades, out of nowhere.

Great work doesn't come out of nowhere. It comes out of interactions with the people you seek to change.

       

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duminică, 25 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Chinese Malls Hit With Low Traffic, Rising Vacancies, Plunging Rent, Massive Overcapacity

Posted: 25 Oct 2015 07:05 PM PDT

Judging from mall traffic, sinking rent, and rising vacancies, the effort by China to hand off growth from fixed investment to consumer consumption is not going well.

Reuters asks Why are Chinese Malls Closing if Consumption is Rising?
Rising vacancy rates and plummeting rents are increasingly common in Chinese malls and department stores, despite official data showing a sharp rebound in retail sales that helped the world's second-largest economy beat expectations in the third quarter.

The answer to that apparent contradiction lies in the rising competition from online shopping and government purchases possibly boosting retail statistics. Add poorly managed properties into the equation and the empty malls aren't much of a surprise.

More importantly, the struggles of Chinese brick-and-mortar retailers amplify a policy conundrum; these malls, built to reap gains from rising consumption, are instead adding to China's corporate debt problem, currently at 160 percent of GDP - twice as high as the United States.

Less foot traffic means cash flow of mall owners and developers are getting squeezed - a potential hazard for an economy growing at its slowest pace in decades.

Major listed mall operators are also feeling the pain. Dalian Wanda, a big property developer, said in January it would close or restructure 30 of its retail venues and in August said more adjustments were underway.

Malaysia-based Parkson (3368.HK), which operates more than 70 department stores in China, closed several of its stores in northern China last year following a 58 percent drop in China net profit in 2013. 

"As growth in retail sales slows because of the country's lower GDP growth, and in cities where mall space is abundant, vacancy rates have risen substantially," said Moody's analyst Marie Lam in a research note.

In its latest efforts to reenergize the economy, China's central bank on Friday cut interest rates for the sixth time in less than a year.

Tim Condon, an economist at ING in Singapore warned that investors should not read China's official retail figures as exclusively reflective of rising household consumption, noting that the data also capture some government purchases.

Shopping Overcapacity

China is currently the site of more than half the world's shopping mall construction, according to CBRE, a real estate firm, even though it appears that many of these malls will not produce good returns for their investors.

A joint report by the China Chain Store Association and Deloitte showed that by the end of this year, the total number of China's new malls is projected to reach 4,000, a jump of over 40 percent from 2011.

"If you build it and they're not coming, that's a non-performing loan," said Condon of ING.

"That's the banks' problem."
Vacant Malls, Vacant Units, Vacant Cities

Online sales are up double digits, but I don't buy the story that online shopping is a huge contributing factor to this mess.

Rather China has overbuilt.

China has countless malls that no one shops in, transportation facilities that no one uses, and entire cities where no one lives.

Such development adds to GDP.

7% GDP Growth?

Huge writedowns are coming which should subtract from GDP. But it won't be reported that way. Instead, we will see it in a dramatic slowing of future GDP.

Few believe China has7% growth, as the official numbers show. But even fewer understand how low growth really is. Subtract bankrupt SOEs, and malinvestments such as vacant cities and malls, and China is barely growing, if it's growing at all.

Few see the situation correctly because stimulus efforts mask the true state of affairs. The previous sentence applies globally, not just to China.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Gardner Business Index Shows Small to Medium Sized Businesses Struggling Most

Posted: 25 Oct 2015 07:53 AM PDT

I have an interesting update from Steve Kline Jr., Director of Market Intelligence at Gardner Business Media, Inc., a B2B media company that conducts surveys similar to the ISM.

For a description of Gardner Business Media, please see Alternative ISM for Metalworking, Plastics, Composites Suggests Economic Contraction.

Steve writes ...
Hello Mish,

I wanted to give you an update on the comparison between the Gardner Business Index and the ISM. I included the initial portion of our data for October even though we only have about 60% of the responses we should get by the end of the month. So far in October the index has dropped with small companies getting worse and big companies doing better.

In the Excel file, I included an additional chart that compares the ISM to our index for companies with more than 250 employees and companies with 1-19 employees. Note that the ISM correlates quite well with our index for companies with more than 250 employees. Also, the trend/pattern of the ISM correlates with our index for small companies, but the index level of the ISM is significantly higher. So, clearly the ISM focuses on larger companies. This gives the ISM a skewed perspective on what is happening throughout the entire manufacturing community, especially when roughly 30% of the manufacturing facilities in our database of more than 100,000 manufacturing facilities have fewer than 20 employees.

Steve
Gardner Business Index by Company Size



Gardner Business Index by Industry



Gardner Metalworking vs. ISM



Gardner Durable Goods vs. ISM



Mike "Mish" Shedlock