sâmbătă, 4 septembrie 2010

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


LDA - Is On-Page Optimization the SEO Secret?

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 05:59 AM PDT

Posted by Dana Lookadoo

How do I recap the SEOmoz PRO Seminar session on Uncovering a Hidden Technique for SEO? The title is so attractive that it produces Pavlonian symptoms as we salivate at the thought of uncovering a hidden SEO treasure. Ben Hendrickson of SEOmoz presented a model which appears to show how Google may assigning relevance to keyword terms based on context - topical relevance.

Is Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) that hidden jackpot?

1st - LDA is not new nor something SEOmoz invented. The Information Retrieval model has been around for 7 or 8 years, and IR geeks have talked about it before. There are a number of resources, as well as nay saying, about LDA and Google's possible use of it.

2nd - What is new is SEOmoz's LDA Topics Tool that produces a relevancy score based off a query (search term). It enables one to play with words that may increase a page's relevancy in the eyes of Google. It shows words that help Google determine how relevant the page is to a user's search query.

Game Changer?

Kyle Stone tweeted that the LDA tool is a game changer, and many retweeted.

SEOmoz LDA tool = game changer

Is SEOmoz's LDA tool a game changer? That's yet to be seen. The goal is to report Ben's research as presented at the Mozinar and how a layman (myself) interprets such. Rand is going to do a follow-up post to explain more.

Why all the hype?

The SEO Challenge

SEOs face the continual challenge of figuring out Google's hidden ranking algorithms. How do we rank higher? Which signals are the most important? We know search engines are "learning models" that attempt to understand "context” of words. Google has said for years that webmasters should concentrate most on providing good relevant (contextual) content.

There are ways to rank higher. Is it as easy as 1, 2, 3?

  1. Create quality copy with keyword(s) on the page along with associated anchor text links.
  2. Get good links.
  3. What Ben talked about in this session.

LDA - Topic Modeling & Analysis

Latent Dirichlet Allocation, in layman's terms, translates to "topic modeling." In search geek terms, LDA is the following formula:

LDA Formula

(Did you digest that? Don't worry; Mozzers groaned and laughed at the same time. PLUS: Scientist Hendrickson delivered this session after lunch!)

LDA Simplified - Here is Ben's way of explaining topic modeling:

LDA Formula Simplified

(Okay, I was once proud that I got an A in Logic and Combinatorics - discrete math/set theory. However, that computer science class now feels like basic math compared to this formula.)

It made more sense when Rand Fishkin joined Ben on stage and when Todd Freisen moderated and deciphered during Q&A. (Manuela Sanches of Brazil was sitting next to me and said that Ben's "presentation needed subtitles!")

The objective of LDA, from my deciphering of Greek, is to understand how Google is using semantic contextual analysis combined with other signals, to define topics/concepts. It's how Google analyzes the words on a page to determine the "set" to which a word belongs - how relevant a search query is to pages in its database.

For example: How does Google assign relevance to the word "orange" on a page? They determine orange is related to the fruit set or to the color set by page context.

LDA Defined:

"Latent Dirichlet Allocation (Blei et al, 2003) is a powerful learning algorithm for automatically and jointly clustering words into "topics" and documents into mixtures of topics. It has been successfully applied to model change in scientific fields over time (Griffiths and Steyver, 2004; Hall, et al. 2008).

A topic model is, roughly, a hierarchical Bayesian model that associates with each document a probability distribution over "topics", which are in turn distributions over words."

Bayesian - ah, a term I recognize!! Bayesian spam filtering is a method used to detect spam. It draws off a database and learns the meaning of words. It's "trained" by us when we mark an email as spam. It looks at incoming emails and calculates the probability that the content of an email is contextually spammy.

I found a PowerPoint presentation about Bayesian Inference Techniques by Microsoft Research from 2004 that presents the possibility of using LDA. Go to slide 54 and read:

"Can we build a general-purpose inference engine which automates these procedures?"

Microsoft has been looking at LDA models. Do search engines use it as one of their primary methods?

Ben sampled over 8 million documents with approx. 1,000 queries. He believes Google is using LDA topic modeling to determine (learn) what words mean by their associations with, relevance to, other words on the page. (Other factors are included.) Ben called the results a "co-occurrence explanation" that use a "cosine similarity."

SEO Takeaway:

  • Results that are higher in Google SERPs, in general, have more topical content.
  • Search engines do APPEAR to apply semantic analysisÂ… when indexing a page and determining the intent of the words on the page.

Rand tweeted an explanation (in 140 x 4) as follows:

Rand's tweets explaining LDA

Dana's LDA Catwalk Metaphor for Topic Modeling:

Imagine the words on your page as walking down the fashion runway in Paris. Your keyword phrase is "dressed" in semantic accessories, words that correlate to and dress up your topic. Associated words bring meaning to and highlight the fashion model's outfit. Adjectives, modifiers and synonyms are like jewelry, hats, and shoes. The combination can transform your base layers (your target terms) from casual or conservative business attire into a sexy night-on-the-town ensemble.

Combinations and permutations of words on a page "dress" your skinny or curvy fashion model. Relevant words provide Google with an image of what she is wearing and the catwalk upon which she struts. LDA refers back to what Google already knows about these "accessories" (words) and their previous association with the topic terms related to fashion.

Enter Topical Ambiguity - I just broke the "rules" for context with the catwalk metaphor by referring to modeling in two contexts on this page:

  • I used "modeling" terms that relate to the "fashion industry" set.
  • The catwalk metaphor is irrelevant content that is off-topic for discussing "LDA topic modeling."

Google Algorithm Exposed?

Ben clearly said that LDA is an ATTEMPT to explain the SERPs. His scenario, a quote from his presentation slides, follows:

One of us needs to implement it so we can:

1) See how it applies to pages
2) See if it helps explain SERPs
One-two-three-not-it.

LDA is not LSI.

There were some tweets claiming SEOmoz was bringing back LSI or snakeoil. Ben clarified that LDA is not LSI, which deals more with keyword density. He explained that he is NOT talking about loading keywords on a page but about the relevance of the topics within the page. He said that:

"LSI doesn’t have the same bias toward simple explanations. LSI breaks down as you try to scale up the number of topics."

The LDA tool deals with context, semantic relevancy, not density - in addition to some other random factors. Example:

If SEOmoz has a page all about "SEO" and "tools," and there is another word on the page that can be explained by a word that is more related to SEO topic, then the related word would be used. Meaning, "seo tools" doesn't have to be repeated over and over, and the related word would be interpreted by Google as being relevant.

Ben, who appears to have the brain of a search engine, noted that it "appears" LDA is what Google is heading for in the near future. He said (paraphrased):

If they are not doing it, they seem to be doing something that has the same output. They are probably already using it.

Rand deciphered:

It’s a super weird coincidence if Google is not using it.

Are On-Page Signals Stronger than Links?

Are we heading toward more emphasis of on-page topic modeling? I'm not an IR geek, but I do plan to spend more energy focusing on understanding how search engines retrieve informaton. We are dealing with a semantic Web. LDA may indicate that good old on-page optimization sends stronger signals than links.

SEOmoz's LDA tool attempts to show how relevant content is to a chosen keyword. It computes relevance of queries.

The following shows how relevant SEOmoz's Tools page is to Aaron Wall's SEO Book Tools page.

seo tools relevance for SEOmoz & SEO Book

The score at the top is an indicator of how relevant the content on that page is according to LDA.

  • Aaron's content is 72%* relevant for the query "seo tools."
  • SEOmoz's tools page is 40%* relevant.

*NOTE: (I inserted the logos.) You can run the same pages and get different results. The results are similar in that SEO Book always scored as more topically relevant, but the percentage varies. Is this the random Monte Carlo algorithm at work? Ben?

Mozinar Question:

"How do we execute this for SEO?"

Ben's Answer:

"I don't actually do SEO. I write code."

That's up to us, the SEOs, to play and test in our Google playground.

Use the tool to decide if you can win with LDA to optimize your on-page signals.

  1. Use the LDA Topics Tool to return words that could be used on a page for a query.
  2. Then determine who is ranking for that term.
  3. Simply write content that is highly on-topic based off the findings you observe.

If you are not performing that well in the SERPs, think about classic on-page optimization. In the example above, rather than putting another instance of "seo tools" on the page, LDA shows there are better ways to tell Google that you are about that topic. The tool provides a way to measure that.

IMPORTANT: There is a threshold at which too many related words will appear as too spammy. LDA is not something to be used to game Google.

Test the LDA Tool out for yourself, and draw your own conclusions.

***
DISCLAIMER: I'm not claiming this methodology has uncovered hidden SEO treasures. Time, testing and playing around with a new SEOmoz tool while observing the SERPs will reveal the answer. In the meantime, I'm going to dress up my pages and accessorize them with relevant terms that make them dazzle so they look good climbing the Google catwalk.


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Daily Snapshot: Honoring the American Worker

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, September 4, 2010
 

 

 

Your Weekly Address: Honoring the American Worker

The President talks about his fight to make America work for the middle class and make sure hard work is rewarded -- rather than greed and recklessness. Watch the video.

Photo of the Day - September 2, 2010

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog

The Employment Situation in August
Private sector employment increased by 67,000 in August and the unemployment rate rose to 9.6%.

President Obama on August Jobs Numbers: "Positive News" But "Not Nearly Good Enough"
The President talks about the most recent jobs numbers, what they mean, and what needs to be done.

Remaining Ready for Hurricane Earl
Administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency Craig Fugate provides an update on Hurricane Earl and the pre-landfall preparation steps being taken along the East Coast.

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Seth's Blog : Sometimes, price is an attitude

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Sometimes, price is an attitude

Passed a store the other day. The sign read 99 CENTS! And the subtitle was, "Everything $1 and up".

The 99 cent store was never popular because there's some magical power about the price that is a penny less than a dollar. No, it's because it represents an attitude, that this stuff is CHEAP. Not absolute cheap, just relatively cheap. Not even a good value, just cheap. Cheap compared to its non-cheap competition.

At the other end of the spectrum, the prices at the Hermes store appear to be missing a decimal point or two. The attitude is, "wow, this stuff is expensive." It's not about what you get, it's about how it feels to pay that much.

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Tip 5: A link is worth 1,000 words

Hello

Did you know that some major corporations have publicly admitted to using robots to write content for their websites? In today's lesson we discuss that, and why Google puts so much weight on links.

 

Read it online at
http://www.seobook.com/learn-seo/link-1000-words.php

 

Tomorrow we will cover an easy way to get great links.

 

Cheers,
Aaron Wall

 

P.S. To appreciate all the different ways people try to spam Google, read this PDF created by Google's Amit Singhal in 2004, paying particular attention to slides 15 through 26
http://training.seobook.com/bonuses/haifa.pdf

 

P.P.S. Did you know my private coaching club, "SEO BOOK CONFIDENTIAL", is an exclusive insiders group of some of the most influential and successful SEOs in the world? We quietly generate literally millions online for our clients and our own businesses——so can you imagine what it'd be like having us take a look at your SEO project?

 

Well here's the best part: inside the "SEO BOOK CONFIDENTIAL" forum, you'll be able to post all your problems and questions. You'll get specific advice from me and all the other top-level SEOs in our exclusive club. (Some of these guys charge upwards of $500 per hour... plus, even if you had the money to hire them, they're booked solid, so you couldn't anyway).

 

You'll also get the best of my free tools, exclusive premium tools, time-saving tutorials and cutting edge tips.

 

To discover more about our friendly community of SEOs——and how you can be getting one-to-one advice from us in the next five minutes——follow this link:
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vineri, 3 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Understanding Reality - You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 05:27 PM PDT

As everyone should know by now, my main concern with unions is specifically with public unions. While I do not care for unions at all, and never have, at least with private unions, someone other than corrupt politicians buying votes is bargaining at the other end of the table.

In the case of public unions, if politicians strike a bad deal, taxpayers foot the bill. In the case of private corporations, if management strikes a bad deal, the company goes bankrupt, shareholders take a hit, or the jobs move elsewhere, as soon as the contract is up.

Except in few cases every now and again, private unions just cannot seem to understand this simple economic fact.

Machinists Union Pickets Cessna Aircraft

The Kansas Wichita Eagle highlights the typical union response, public or private, in Cessna's initial offer to Machinists includes wage cut
Machinist union members at Cessna Aircraft picketed near the company's plant in southwest Wichita on Thursday to protest jobs being sent outside the city.

Members fought strong, gusty afternoon winds and carried signs that read "Keep it Made in Wichita," "Outsourcing is Treason" and "We built the Air Capital," as they picketed at K-42 and Hoover roads. Some carried American flags.

Cessna and the Machinists union are in the midst of contract negotiations. The current contract expires Sept. 19. About 2,300 hourly workers at Cessna are covered by the agreement. Hawker Beechcraft also has reopened negotiations with the union as it considers sending work to Louisiana, Mississippi and outside the country.

Cessna's initial proposal is for a 10-year agreement that cuts wages 4.2 percent, weakens job security, replaces the pension plan with a 401(k) plan and increases the share of the cost of health insurance paid by the workers to 30 percent, said union spokesman Bob Wood.

"There's no job security in the current proposal," Wood said.

"Wichita is based on aircraft," said Cynthia Hise. "If you don't get a good contract...." Darren Hise finished her sentence. "It's going to hurt the whole economy in Wichita."
Reflections on Job Security

Here's the deal. The Hise's and the union in general, appears ready willing and able to "hurt the whole Wichita economy" if they do not get what they want.

I have to ask "How stupid is that?"

The answer is "tremendously stupid".

It is far better to have a good paying job and no job security than no job at all and no prospects of a job. That's what it boils down to, and like it or not, that is the economic reality.

I do not know what salaries are, but a 10 year contract with only a 4.2% pay cut does not strike me as a bad deal. Those who think otherwise need to compare it to the alternative: seeing all the jobs go to Louisiana, Mississippi, or outside the country.

By the way, wouldn't residents of Louisiana and Mississippi be very grateful for those job, regardless of what the salary was? I think so. So the bottom line is this mess, is the unions would be to blame and only the unions to blame if Cessna moves elsewhere. The union will also be responsible for wrecking the entire local economy if it happens.

Take the contract and run! It's for 10 years! Because .... You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone, Then It's Too Late. In this case, it will be gone forever.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Reflections on the "Recovery"

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 12:43 PM PDT

One year ago the official unemployment rate was 9.7%. Today it is 9.6%.

One year ago U-6 unemployment was 16.8%. Today U-6 is 16.7%




click on chart for sharper image

For more details on the jobs report, please see Jobs Decrease by 54,000, Rise by 60,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rises Slightly to 9.6%; A Look Beneath the Surface

For all the trillions of dollars in stimulus and additional trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and trillions of dollars of expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, this is all we have to show for it.

Moreover, the economy is clearly slowing already by many economic reports including new home sales, existing home sales, the regional Fed manufacturing surveys, sentiment measures, and consumer spending trends. The only major discrepancy is ISM.

This week, none of that matters. However, I would like to point out that bear market rallies end, not on bad news, but on good news. It will be interesting to see how much more good news there is, and the market's reaction to it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Jobs Decrease by 54,000, Rise by 60,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rises Slightly to 9.6%; A Look Beneath the Surface

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 09:08 AM PDT

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 64,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease of 114,000 temporary census workers.

Excluding the census effect, government lost 7,000 jobs. Were the trend to continue, this would be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Real Jobs.

Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way. Indeed there is a $26 billion bill giving money to the states to keep bureaucrats employed. This is unfortunate because we need to shed government jobs.

Birth-Death Model

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 115,000 jobs, a number likely to be revised lower in coming years. Please note you cannot directly subtract the number from the total because of the way the BLS computes its overall number.

Participation Rate Effects

The civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged from last month's report. However, these measures have declined by 0.5 percentage points and 0.3 points, respectively, since April.

The drop in participation rate this year is the only reason the unemployment rate is not over 10%. The drop in participation rates is not that surprising because some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers unless Congress does substantially more to support states.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated Risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.



click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June, July Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from -221,000 to -175,000, and the change for July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.

Those revisions look good but it is important to note where the revisions comes from. The loss of government jobs in June was revised from -252,000 to -236,000 and July from -202 to -161,000.

Major Discrepancies

The BLS jobs report for August does not match ADP payroll estimates. Moreover, neither the BLS jobs report nor the ADP jobs report is consistent with the hot ISM number reported Wednesday. Both the BLS (details below) and ADP have a decline in manufacturing employment while ISM had a rise.

Please see Rosenberg says "ISM Flunks Sniff Test "; Cashin calls ISM "an Outlier"; ADP, Other Data Does Not Confirm for more details that suggest the ISM number is nonsense.

Part-Time Employment

The number of involuntary part-time workers increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. In January, the number of employees working "part-time for economic reasons" was 8.6 million.

Now for this month's report ....

July 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2010 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted

Since September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 362,000.

Establishment Data



click on chart for sharper image

Highlights

  • 54,000 jobs were lost
  • 19,000 construction jobs were added
  • 27,000 manufacturing jobs were lost
  • 38,000 service providing jobs were added
  • 67,00 retail trade jobs were added
  • 20,000 professional and business services jobs were added
  • 45,000 education and health services jobs were added
  • 13,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were added
  • 121,000 government jobs were lost. Of them, 143,000 were temporary census workers
Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so do not attempt to total them up.

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

Production and non-supervisory work hours rose .1 to 33.5 hours (from a revised lower hours total of 33.4 hours). Average hourly earnings rose $.03 at $19.08.

Birth Death Model Revisions 2009



click on chart for sharper image

Birth Death Model Revisions 2010



click on chart for sharper image

Birth/Death Model Revisions

The BLS Birth/Death Model methodology is so screwed up and there have been so many revisions and up it is pointless to further comment other than to repeat a few general statements.

Please note that one cannot subtract or add birth death revisions to the reported totals and get a meaningful answer. One set of numbers is seasonally adjusted the other is not. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death numbers influence the overall totals but the math is not as simple as it appears and the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

BLS Black Box

For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals).

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another.

Household Data
The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million. In August, 42.0 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

In August, the civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a fulltime job.

[Mish Note: In January the number was 8.3 million]

Persons Not in the Labor Force

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey.
Table A-8 Part Time Status



click on chart for sharper image

The key take-away is there are 8,860,00 workers whose hours may rise before those companies start hiring more workers.

Table A-15

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.



click on chart for sharper image

Grim Statistics

The official unemployment rate is 9.6%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 16.7%, up .2 from last month.

Looking ahead, there is no driver for jobs. Moreover, states are in forced cutback mode on account of shrinking revenues and unfunded pension obligations. Shrinking government jobs and benefits at the state and local level is a much needed adjustment. Those cutbacks will weigh on employment and consumer spending for quite some time.

Expect to see structurally high unemployment for years to come.

Keep in mind that huge cuts in public sector jobs and benefits at the city, county, and state level are on the way. These are badly needed adjustments. However, economists will not see it that way, nor will the politicians.

Recap

The private sector hiring increase of 67,000 is very weak for a recovery. That number is not enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. However, the unemployment rate comes from the Household Survey (a phone survey), not from actual payroll data.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Perioada de testare se apropie de sfarsit pentru sit-drink-pay-smile.blogspot.com

trafic.ro

Buna ,

Iti reamintim ca urmatoarele site-uri se afla in ultimele zile ale perioadei de testare a monitorizarii trafic.ro. In curand, nu vei mai avea acces la Statistici, iar site-urile nu vor mai aparea in Clasament.

Daca vrei sa beneficiezi in continuare de monitorizarea trafic.ro, te rugam sa efectuezi plata abonamentelor.

Pentru site-ul sit-drink-pay-smile.blogspot.com mai ai 10 zile din perioada de testare.

Plateste acum abonamentul! Plateste acum abonamentul

Iti multumim ca ai ales trafic.ro.

Succes!

Echipa trafic.ro

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