luni, 13 septembrie 2010

Seth's Blog : The myth of preparation

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The myth of preparation

Beginner.001-001
There are three stages of preparation. (For a speech, a product, an interview, a sporting event...)

The first I'll call the beginner stage. This is where you make huge progress as a result of incremental effort.

The second is the novice stage. This is the stage in which incremental effort leads to not so much visible increase in quality.

And the third is the expert stage. Here's where races are won, conversations are started and sales are made. A huge amount of effort, off limits to most people, earns you just a tiny bit of quality. But it's enough to get through the Dip and be seen as the obvious winner.

Here's the myth: The novice stage is useful.

If all you're going to do is go through the novice stage before you ship, don't bother. If you're not prepared to put in the grinding work of the expert stage, just do the beginner stuff and stop screwing around. Make it good enough and ship it and move on.

We diddle around in the novice stage because we're afraid. We polish (but not too much) and go to meetings (plenty of them) and look for deniability, spending hours and hours instead of shipping. And the product, in the end, is not so much better.

I'm all for expertise. Experts, people who push through and make something stunning--we need more of them. But let's be honest, if you're not in the habit of being an expert, it's unlikely your current mode of operation is going to change that any time soon.

Go, give a speech. Go, start a blog. Go, ship that thing that you've been hiding. Begin, begin, begin and then improve. Being a novice is way overrated.

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duminică, 12 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Australian Lenders Learn Nothing from US Housing Bust: Mortgage House offer 105% Mortgages, Westpack offers 97% Mortgages

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 09:13 PM PDT

Smack in the face of a US housing bust and an enormous property bubble in Australia, Australian lenders are offering up to 105% mortgages.

It is amazing to see sheer stupidity played out on the assumption "It's Different in Australia".

Please consider Lenders back to throwing cash at buyers
Next month, non-bank lender Mortgage House will offer a home loan equivalent to 105 per cent of the property's value - the most generous deal since the global financial crisis kicked in three years ago.

The company also offers a 99 per cent loan-to-value ratio loan, which it launched last month, and says applications have been flooding in. "Demand is really strong; people are finding it difficult to save substantial deposits" Mortgage House CEO Ken Sayer said.

Last week, Westpac raised its LVR for new customers from 87 per cent to 92 per cent, reversing the cut it made back in January; while ANZ also last week raised the maximum LVRs from 95 per cent to 97 per cent for existing customers, and from 90 per cent to 92 per cent for new borrowers

Westpac denied it was fuelling house-price growth and said the falling unemployment and strong economy were behind its decision.

"This change reflects our growing confidence in the economic environment, reflected in the low level of delinquencies for this market segment," it said.
Australia Lenders Fuel the Bubble

In the US banks loosened lending standards and kept right on doing it until the whole mad scheme blew up. Australian banks are now making the same mistake.

People find it difficult to save for a down payment for the specific reason Australia is in a bubble. And just as the US bubble burst so will Australia's. It is really sad to see Australia lenders fuel the bubble this way.

One thing different in Australia regards the ability to "walk away". Clearly the lenders are playing off that, with no regards to ethical conduct. It won't matter.

Bubbles always pop no matter what the conditions or restraints are.

For example, the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005 was supposed to halt bankruptcies in the US. After the bill passed, lenders, especially credit card and Home Equity lenders, took advantage of the situation counting on home prices to rise and the inability of consumers to declare bankruptcy. The mess blow up in the lenders' faces anyway.

The same scenario is destined for Australia. Moreover, the bigger the bubble the bigger the bust. Australia's bust will be staggering.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Inflation in China Escalates - Miracle Expansion or Bubble to Burst?

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 09:06 AM PDT

The New York Times reports Inflation in China Is Rising at a Fast Pace
From street markets to corporate offices, consumers and executives alike in China are trying to cope with rising prices. The National Bureau of Statistics announced on Saturday that consumer prices in China were 3.5 percent higher compared with a year earlier, the largest increase in nearly two years.

To make matters worse, inflation over the short term also seems to be accelerating. A seasonally adjusted comparison of August prices to July prices showed that inflation was running at an annualized pace closer to 4.8 percent.

Prices are rising in China for reasons that many Americans or Europeans might envy. The economy is growing, stores are full and banks are lending lots of money, according to other statistics released by the government on Saturday.

Compared with August of last year, industrial production rose 13.9 percent last month, retail sales increased 18.4 percent, bank lending climbed 18.6 percent and fixed-asset investment surged 24 percent.

All four categories rose slightly more than economists had expected, in the latest sign of the Chinese economy's strength even as recoveries seem to be flagging elsewhere.

But salaries for recent college graduates, at $300 to $500 a month in coastal areas, have actually declined in the last few years, even before adjusting for inflation. A rapid expansion of universities over the last decade has resulted in more young men and women with undergraduate degrees than companies are ready to hire, except at lower pay.

And as in many countries, retirees are among the most vulnerable to inflation. Ms. Lam said her own mother lived on a pension of just $150 a month.

Rising wages are putting pressure on companies to increase their prices. Mr. Dong, the sales manager at the Ningbo Deye Domestic Electrical Appliance Technology Company, said the company had to raise wages by 10 percent a year, while raw material costs were also climbing.

"It is impossible to transfer our cost increases entirely to our customers, because if we do so, they will all run away," he said. "We are currently doing a study of our assembly line work processes to see where we can achieve greater efficiency."

But as the powerful growth in fixed-asset investment last month showed, Chinese companies are still responding to rising prices by building more factories, office buildings and other equipment, instead of cutting back.

Chinese officials have said for many years that they regard 5 percent inflation as unacceptable, and they have shown a willingness to clamp down on bank lending and investment whenever annual increases come close to that level. They have taken some of these steps in recent months, but more recently eased back on lending controls as some Chinese economists suggested that domestic demand might not be as strong as the August data showed.
Economic Stress and Property Bubbles, or Miraculous Expansion?

Let's not confuse an economy booming because of loose economic policy, massive currency intervention printing Yuan to buy dollars, and stimulus that at a minimum rivals that in the Unites States. Also the Chinese property market is in one enormous bubble with vacant malls, vacant offices, and vacant apartments.

For more on the Chinese property bubble, please see ...


The US appeared to be growing rapidly in 2006 and early 2007 on the backs of housing and commercial real estate expansion. When housing crashed, people were reluctant to spend, banks were reluctant to lend, and businesses were reluctant to hire.

Before anyone gets too excited about the miraculous looking expansion in China, one needs to take the above ideas into consideration.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Sunday Funnies 2010-09-12 Worthless Dollar

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 08:09 AM PDT

The following is in reference to Instant Insanity - my comments on three whacko ideas by Willem Buiter, chief economist for Citigroup, to cure deflation.

Please give it a look if you have not done so already.




Given enough time, all fiat currencies go to zero (relative to some starting point). 2% inflation a year is enough to do it. This should not be confused with hyperinflation, a complete loss of faith in currency.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Seth's Blog : Shipit Workbook back in stock for a while

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Shipit Workbook back in stock for a while

Two weeks ago, I told you about a workbook I published. I was amazed and a bit delighted to discover that less than 16 hours after announcing it, the entire warehouse was sold out. (It peaked at #8 on the Amazon list).

I apologize to those of you that weren't able to get a set. And I doubly apologize to my beloved Canadian readers who were shut out for no apparent reason that I've been able to discern.

We've gone back to press for more and I'm pleased to announce that the workbooks are now available, and there's a special option for Canadians. I can't promise that these will last much longer than the last batch, but I've already ordered some more.

Shipping atoms is difficult, and crossing borders is more difficult still. I'm going to adjust as I go and hope to make the supply more reliable. It's doubly disappointing that you can't order when they run out of stock. We're working on that. If you discover an out of stock, please check back after a week...

I'm investigating new ways to make this more efficient going forward. I apologize again, and thank you for your good humor.

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Seth's Blog : Why jazz is more interesting than bowling

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Why jazz is more interesting than bowling

Bowling is all about one number: the final score. And great bowlers come whisker-close to hitting the perfect score regularly. Not enough dimensions for me to be fascinated by, and few people pay money to attend bowling matches.

Jazz is practiced over a thousand or perhaps a million dimensions. It's non-linear and non-predictable, and most of all, it's never perfect.

And yet...

when we get to work, most of us choose to bowl.

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sâmbătă, 11 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Chemists, Special Education Teachers, Pharmaceutical Scientists Chime in on "Hooked on Prescriptions"

Posted: 11 Sep 2010 10:48 PM PDT

I received a number of interesting emails from doctors, pharmaceutical industry insiders, and a special education teacher in response to Hooked on Prescription Drugs - Half of US Took at least One Prescription Drug in Previous Month.

Pharmaceutical Scientist Responds

"PS" Writes ...
Hello Mish

I work in the pharmaceutical industry and can make a stab at answering some of the questions you raised. This is from the perspective of a manager/scientist with wide project contacts and some interactions with upper management.

Is pharma only interested in treating symptoms, as opposed to curing disease? I've never hear the distinction made internally. We basically target certain areas (like cancer, obesity, muscular) and research particular target proteins that have a proven or suspected involvement in that area. Then we try to stop those proteins. Whether its a cause or a symptom, if it has a market then pharma is interested. So we do try to cure cancer (i.e. completely eradicate the cancerous cells), but we also try to develop new pain medications and weight loss medications, which are more symptoms.

We spend the vast majority of our time investigating medications that ultimately fail. The FDA has made this very difficult and any success is hijacked by 'generics' which congress gives special protections. So the short answer is we're interested in both, and try everything in our areas and hope for something that will actually turn a profit. As long as people will pay to treat symptoms, we will develop drugs to treat symptoms (though not exclusively).

I can't comment as an expert on the attention deficit disorder. It does seem like it's a modern phenomenon/invention. I've always suspected bad parenting, bad teaching and hyperactive disease diagnosis syndrome. I have heard some anecdotal evidence that its diet related, but haven't researched it.

Drug advertisements are highly regulated, so it's no wonder they're whacked.

Why is medicine so ****'d up? The answer is a long history of government involvement, starting with special tax status granted to the Blues, then employer provided healthcare, as well as Medicare, Medicaid, etc. Because government is paying for everything it should be no surprise that prices are going up.

Pharma is not guiltless.

We've been supporting increased government involvement (including supporting Obamacare) for a long time. Hell, its our medicines the government is buying. However, I sense that justice will someday come and we will pay dearly for selling the taxpayer down the river. I sure hope so.

Cheers,
"PS"
Second Pharmaceutical Research Scientist Responds

"Jeff" a second research scientist responds ...
Hi Mish,

I am totally against advertising pharmaceuticals. And I have worked as a research scientist in the pharmaceutical industry for 25 years.

You can blame the Clinton administration for lifting the ban on prescription drug advertisement.

The industry spends more on those obnoxious ads than they do on research and development! There are a lot of wonderful benefits that society has received from the pharmaceutical industry (e.g. antibiotics and vaccines). However, drug advertising is not one of them. As for hyperactive children, you can blame poor diet (e.g. too much sugar and too little of omega-3- fatty acids) and lack of exercise.

Thanks, Jeff
Special Education Teacher Responds
Hello Mish,

Over-diagnosing ADD has evidently grown stale to a number of psychologists, as they have moved on to Autism as the general catch-all for why certain children struggle in school (not to mention other wonderfully vague diagnoses such as almost any of the behavioral disabilities).

I work with people with disabilities (currently with adults, but in the past with children in schools as a behavior consultant) and I never cease to be amazed by the vast number of students who are diagnosed with disabilities they do not have.

Most of the children with behavior disabilities are actually troubled by their home life and act out as an attention-seeking behavior. Over the course of a school year it is possible to render most of these attention-seeking behaviors extinct with the correct support and teachers who are willing to make an effort.

Unfortunately most teachers are not willing, preferring instigating the child's problem behaviors in order to have them removed from the classroom, despite demonstrations that basic support will prevent the problem behaviors to begin with. Of the 20 teachers at the elementary school I worked at, only two were willing to listen to the recommendations of Special Education teachers and behavior specialists.

I think the problem is that most people have never actually met a person with Autism (or perhaps even with ADD) and so they ascribe any peculiarities the child might have to a disability. Most people have a basic understanding of Autism, so they think that any antisocial behavior or lack of interest in certain situations is indicative of Autism. If they were to meet a person with Autism (with their extreme behavior peculiarities and tics, not to mention their absolute disinterest in interpersonal communication as a general rule) teachers would recognize that most of these students are just a little different, not suffering from an actual disability.

The same is true of ADD; having met a student with actual ADD (only one in a school of 400-500 students) there was no possible way to confuse the mild behavior of most of the students diagnosed with ADD (who were just a tad fidgety or occasionally disruptive) with that of the student who was actually unable to focus (even on tasks he generally enjoyed would only hold his attention for a few minutes). The best example we will ever have of the ridiculous level of over-diagnosis comes from Jenny McCarthy's child, the poster child for Autism, who was supposedly cured of the disability (rather than the obvious fact that the child never suffered from Autism).

Anyone with an ounce of common sense would recognize that Autism is not a curable condition; It is like looking for a cure for Down Syndrome. Really, it should be obvious to people that Autism is over-diagnosed now that some countries are claiming rates of 1 in 68 or higher.

Unfortunately we may be stuck with over-diagnosis for a while, in part because it is the easiest thing to do for everyone involved. Since the diagnostic criteria for things like ADD and Autism are so broad, and there are monetary incentives in the way of additional funding for students with disabilities, and parents would rather hear their child has a disability than that they might somehow be at fault for poor discipline, everyone at the diagnosis level benefits.

In my experience, the normal diagnosis process is this. The child is acting out in class, so the teacher refers the case to the school psychologist and possibly the Special Education teacher for review. The school psychologist visits the classroom and observes the child acting out. In a few of the children I observed, they acted out more when the school psychologist was there because she responded to the behavior. Because the school psychologist is not willing to either blame the teacher (for having poor control of the classroom) or the parents (for failing to provide discipline to the child), the only choice left is a diagnosis that justifies the behavior.

If a child falls behind and performs poorly in class, the teacher assumes they are learning disabled instead of assuming the children had poor teachers at earlier grades.

No one wants to take responsibility. To be fair to the teachers, there are cases where they have little choice but to make the referral. If the student is seeking attention by acting out, most teachers do not have the skills necessary to handle these students without the help of an expert, and the only way to get that help is to make the referral.

My wife has both a Bachelor's and Master's Degree in Education, and I was always amazed that she never had to take a single class on managing problem behavior on an individual level.

Sorry for this being such a long missive, but this is an issue that is near and dear to me. Having worked with the kids being given false diagnoses, I have discovered the diagnosis itself is a major inhibitor of progress. Once students attend their first Special Education meeting, they come to view themselves as disabled and justified in their acting out. I have been told by many of them that they see no point in attempting to control their behavior, because it can't be controlled, and because no one likes them anyway due to their past behavior.

I have never dealt with a student whose behavior could not be drastically improved by basic behavior management behaviors, and have never personally dealt with a student that I felt needed to be medicated.

Now that I work with adults (sometimes with the worst of the worst, people whose behavior was significant enough to see them institutionalized or imprisoned) I see the outcome of our poor education environment. It takes one person at the elementary level to manage thirty kids with behavior problems. It takes one person at the adult level to manage a maximum of four adults with behavior problems, and if we institutionalize or imprison them, we also bear the cost of feeding and clothing them. Our current system is creating future criminals by justifying their behavior rather than attempting to correct it.

Special Ed Teacher
Medical Doctor Responds

Mark, a medical doctor writes ....
Hello Mish

I've written before.

I have no love lost between myself and pharmaceutical companies and their insurance henchmen. However, you frustration here is misplaced.

Americans are hooked on prescription drugs less because of marketing or even physician indifference and far, far more because that is what Americans want. You can see this yourself at your local mall. Americans want to eat. They do not want to walk. They are unhappy at there appearance but they are not interested in self-restraint or altered lifestyles. Even the most obese in my patient population stubbornly insist they do not overeat and that they must have a glandular problem or some other explanation.

The overweight and immobile constitute the vast majority of those with Type II diabetes, cholesterol elevations, hypertension and esophageal reflux (treated with the purple pill). Much of the treatment of these problems would vanish were Americans willing to eat less and walk more.

Similarly, Americans want a pill to solve their emotional and child rearing problems rather than engaging with life.

There are huge parallels here as regards American's approach to their financial lives. They want stuff and they want it now. In their opinions it is not their fault if they lack the necessary income. They simply to wish to gorge on physical goodies and then they are surprised at their state of fiscal health.

Love your musings.

"MB" MD
Chemistry Professor Responds
Hello Mish

I read your article on prescription drugs. I am a chemistry professor and my line of research brings me to pharmaceutical companies quite often, including offers to take "research money".

The reasons I refuse such offers are common sense ones.

What I see these days is that so-called "lifestyle drugs" bring pharmaceutical companies the most profit since they can be fed to patient for tens of years, in many cases covered by taxpayers/insurance.

Many of the issues can be treated with diet and exercise (cholesterol), or discipline (ADHD). Instead, it is easier to pop pills especially if you are insured. Consequently, the blame lies on both sides - general population does what is easier, and pharma stimulates this behavior. Also, I have to note that there IS a legitimate need for these drugs, but definitely not on scale that they are prescribed now.

Things like antimalarials or antibiotics for which there is a legitimate need are almost not developed because you can cure those diseases in months and the profit will be very small. Put it against the development costs and companies will not get their 20% profit.

A good blog about medicinal chemistry issues is "In the Pipeline"

Chemistry Professor
Several readers have asked why I devote time to topics like health care, unions, politics, etc. The answer is all of these are part of the structural defects facing our nation. No other economic blog touches these important issues in depth.

Until we do something about health care costs, public union, pension benefits, military spending, and a host of other structural problems especially vote buying by corrupt politicians, the US is not going to see anything close to what constitutes a normal recovery.

Whether or not anyone agrees with what I have to say, discussion of these topics brings a much needed awareness of these issues to the forefront. I am grateful to have a wide variety of professionals in various fields responding to these topics, especially health care.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Christie to Propose NJ Pension Rollback; United Steelworkers Tries to Organize Car Washes; Illinois Legislators' Phone Service Canceled for Nonpayment

Posted: 11 Sep 2010 06:37 PM PDT

The circus in the bankrupt state of Illinois continues unabated. Please consider Legislators feeling sting of Illinois' deadbeat ways
State Sen. Dave Luechtefeld was in session in Springfield earlier this year when he got a call from the secretary in his district office. She was calling from her cell phone because the district office phones, which are paid for by the state of Illinois, had been disconnected for nonpayment.

"That was the first time," recalled Luechtefeld, R-Okawville.

His office phones were later cut off again, with the state still months behind in paying for the service. He's now getting renewed threats from the phone company of a third cutoff. "It's laughable," he said, "but it's not."

It's the same story at the district offices of Illinois' elected legislators across the state: Phone, utilities, garbage and rent payments months behind, prompting a monthly flurry of terse late notices and cutoff threats to offices with the state emblem on the doors.

Of course, in a state where teachers are getting laid off, hospitals are struggling and small businesses are failing because the state isn't paying its bills, the office budget plight of a relative handful of politicians isn't going to cause anyone to take to the streets.

But the news of a northern Illinois legislator who was forced to shut down her district office because the state had stiffed her landlord for so long certainly drives home the depth of Illinois' $13 billion budget crisis

Illinois legislators keep offices in or around the Capitol in Springfield, and also have district offices back home. The state allots $69,409 per year for the district office expenses of each House member, which goes toward salaries for office staff, rent, utilities, supplies and related costs. For senators, who have larger districts and often maintain more than one district office, the annual allotment is $83,063.

Lawmakers have often complained that the annual allotment is too small, given the need for clerical workers, professional office space and other significant expenses. However, the current problem of deadbeat district offices isn't about the budgeted amount, but rather about the state's cash flow problems, which stem from a deficit that's roughly 50 percent the size of the state's entire regular operating budget.

"We have 220,000 vouchers sitting in our office waiting to be paid, because we don't have the money to pay them," said Alan Henry of the Illinois comptroller's office, which is responsible for cutting the checks. Those backlogged vouchers at the end of August totaled about $4.5 billion in late bills, which are paid as money becomes available to the state from taxes, fees and other sources.
United Steelworkers Tries to Organize Car Washes

The New York Times reports Labor Tries to Organize Carwashes in Los Angeles
The carwashes of Los Angeles would appear to be an unlikely target for a unionization drive. Many of the estimated 10,000 workers in the business here are illegal immigrants, who are too scared to speak out or give their bosses any excuse to fire them. Many carwash companies have just two or three outlets, not 20 or 30, requiring scores of separate organizing efforts. And carwash owners, who invest a million dollars or more in each facility, are fiercely resisting the prospect of being tied down by collective bargaining and union rules.

Nonetheless, labor organizers have set out to unionize this city's carwash workers, hoping to improve their paltry pay and end widespread abuses. The unions, led by the United Steelworkers, acknowledge that it is a struggle, but they voice confidence that they can organize the first carwashes in the next few weeks or months, and that this will start a domino effect once other owners realize that unionized businesses can survive and even thrive.

California officials have estimated that two-thirds of the 500 carwashes in Los Angeles violate workplace laws. Many workers say they are paid just $35 for a 10-hour workday — less than half the minimum wage — and some say they are not paid for time during which no cars go through the wash. Others complain that they are not given gloves or goggles even though they often use stinging acids to clean tire rims.

Randy Crestall, owner of Autospa Chevron Hand Wash in Valencia, a Los Angeles suburb, said that law-abiding owners resented their scofflaw competitors.

"They're a blight on our industry," said Mr. Crestall, a former president of the Western Carwash Association. "As good operators, we don't like them to be on the same playing field as us."

Mr. Crestall said the unionization push would hurt everyone. "Having a union will mean higher wages, and that will lead to higher prices," he said. "That will mean fewer consumers coming to carwashes, and fewer jobs for these workers."

The unionization drive calls itself the Clean Carwash Campaign and has created a brigade of former carwash workers, many of whom had been fired for backing a union.

"This is not the type of campaign you win overnight," said Chloe Osmer, the campaign's strategic coordinator. "It's the type of campaign where you have to bring the floor up in the industry before you can really have some unionization success."

Although no carwashes have gone union, the campaign helped persuade city officials to investigate the Pirians' carwashes. Last year, the city attorney charged them with a total of 220 misdemeanors that could have meant 120 years in jail. In mid-August, the brothers pleaded no contest to six charges, including grand theft and conspiracy. They were ordered to repay $1.24 million to 54 underpaid workers.
Although I am not in favor of minimum wage laws, enforcing those laws and especially work conditions is a reasonable thing to do.

I happen to agree with owner Randy Crestall who says the effort would lead to fewer jobs.

Indeed, unionization could kill most of the hand wash business. Unions leaders do not care about such things. They want what is good for the union, employees be damned.

Christie to Propose New Jersey Pension Rollback

A spokesman for the Chris Christie says Christie Will Propose New Jersey Pension Rollback
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will unveil legislation that aims to trim a $46 billion pension deficit by scaling back benefits and suspending cost-of-living increases, said a person familiar with details of the proposals.

The measures would roll back a 9 percent increase in pension benefits that was enacted through legislation in 2001, and suspend cost-of-living increases for at least three years, said the person, who declined to be identified because he isn't authorized to speak ahead of Christie's announcement next week.

Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for Christie, said the governor will propose pension measures "early next week" and declined to confirm details of the plan.

"It will be a plan to bring solvency to a system that is dangerously on the brink," Roberts said today in an interview. Any changes Christie will outline are designed to "ensure the system is going to be there in the long-term for those employees that are already here," Roberts said.

Legislators in 2001 changed the formula used to calculate pensions for new retirees by dividing the number of years worked by 55, rather than 60, which in effect resulted in a 9 percent benefit enhancement. Christie is seeking to reverse that legislation and return to at least 60 for current workers, the person said. Legislators previously rolled back the higher benefits for workers hired after May 22, according to state bond documents.
Cheers for New Jersey, Boos for Illinois

Once again three cheers go to Chris Christie for confronting the pension crisis head on. Actually, Christie did not go far enough, something every state pension plan will find out as soon as the stock market falters.

Three boos go to the state of Illinois which has one of the highest property tax rates in the nation yet we still have a school budget crisis and in fact a budget crisis everywhere one looks.

It is crystal clear Illinois governor Pat Quinn is incompetent and must be removed. Although it is highly unlikely Bill Brady (Quinn's challenger) will be anywhere as good as Chris Christie, it would be hard to find someone worse for Illinois than Quinn. Fortunately it appears Bill Brady will easily beat Pat Quinn in the upcoming election. Taxpayers have simply had enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Understanding the Choices on the Menu

Posted: 11 Sep 2010 11:21 AM PDT

Suppose you walk into a Mexican restaurant and ask for Beef Wellington and a side of French Toast. Undoubtedly, you would be turned away for the simple reason those items are not on the menu. If you protested loudly, the police would be called and you would be carted away, hungry.

A similar situation exists in Wichita as discussed in Understanding Reality - You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone.

The choice presented to the Machinist union members at Cessna Aircraft is to accept or reject a 10-year agreement that cuts wages 4.2 percent, replaces the pension plan with a 401(k) plan and increases the share of the cost of health insurance paid by the workers to 30 percent.

The choice is not to ask for Beef Wellington. Yet, several union members working for Cessna have emailed me telling me how unrealistic I am. It may not seem like it but I am trying to help. Moreover, I certainly am not the one who is unrealistic.

Here is my response to "Mary" (name changed to protect the innocent) whose husband works at Cessna.
Mary,

The union needs to understand the gravity of the situation. The union likely has one shot at negotiating a contract. It is possible Cessna has already made preparations and the moment the union rejects the offer, the jobs will leave immediately and permanently.

Whether you like it or not, the union has a choice. The union can accept the contract or reject it. Perhaps there is some room for negotiation but likely not much.

My advice, which I expect not to be taken would be for the union to accept the offer outright or counter by accepting most of what management is asking, perhaps proposing something like 20% of health care costs and a 2.5 percent pay cut.
I seriously doubt management will budge on replacing the pension plan with a 401(k) plan. I do not know is if Cessna is talking about new employees or existing employees. I suspect a bit of both with grandfathering of accrued benefits.

The one thing I am certain of, is that protests will not help, nor will getting union members fired up with anti-Cessna sentiment.

If the union rejects the contract in some bitter fight as opposed to a genuine meeting of the minds where the union gives in up front on most of what Cessna has offered, it is highly likely the jobs will move to New Mexico, if not Mexico.

The Union's Choice

1. Accept the offer and the jobs stay for 10 years
2. Reject the offer and the jobs are gone for good
3. Hold out for Beef Wellington in a contentious round of negotiating and protests
4. Counter with friendly negotiations, agreeing to most of what Cessna management is asking, hoping to tweak the percentages a bit more favorably.

I strongly suggest the union go for option #1 or option #4.

Once management says hello "New Mexico" all options will be off the table. That is the reality of the matter.

The union needs to understand the gravity of the situation, the permanency of the result, and how much workers in New Mexico would love to have those jobs at exactly the terms Cessna is offering.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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Exportable PDF Reports Now in the Web App

Posted: 11 Sep 2010 07:34 AM PDT

Posted by randfish

Since the launch of our beta web app, the #1 feature request from folks writing in to us has been the inclusion of exportable, PDF reports. Today, I heard from our engineering and product teams that these are complete!

Export to PDF Button

You'll find CSV and PDF exports on most of the reports in the web app from here forward

The new PDF reports include:

  • Rankings Overview
  • Rankings History
  • Crawl Diagnostic Issue Detail (the Overview tab is still in progress)
  • On-Page Overview
  • On-Page Report Card

Here's a sample view of a few reports from accounts I've created:

On-Page Report Card PDF

On-page report card in PDF form

Rankings Report Card PDF

Weekly rankings report in PDF form

In addition to PDF, since launch, the web app has offered CSV export for nearly all the sections included.

While we're excited to make this available, we know we still have a lot of work to do on the web app - a few crawls are still giving us trouble, we're refining some of the errors, warnings, notices and recommendations it issues and there's plenty of big features that are on their way. A big thanks to everyone who's trying out the web app today - if you have requests or issues for us, please do use the feedback tab on the side of every page (these go direct to product & engineering).

If you're curious about upcoming features, you can see more in this blog post.

p.s. One of the other features that's been heavily requested is white labeling. That's probably a few more months away, but we definitely appreciate  (and are flattered by) the desire to add your own logos/branding to the reports.


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