marți, 5 februarie 2013

The Evolution of the Use of the Internet: the Italian Case

The Evolution of the Use of the Internet: the Italian Case


The Evolution of the Use of the Internet: the Italian Case

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 04:42 PM PST

Posted by gfiorelli1

When I talk to my American SEO friends, I cannot help but notice their surprise when I tell them that Google in Italy owns 95% of the search market share. Because of this ownership, search engine optimization is virtually synonymous with Google Search Optimization in my home country.

However, Italy is not an exception.

If we examine the percentages that Statcounter.com presents of the search engines’ market shares in Europe between January 2012 to January 2013, the monopolistic percentage repeats itself again and again, with very few exceptions:

Spain 96.08% Portugal 97.31%
France 93,78% Belgium 98.21%
Ireland 94.55% United Kingdom 91.54%
Netherlands 94.33% Germany 94.81%
Austria 96.3% Switzerland 95.76%
Denmark 96.48% Norway 91.97%
Sweden 96.25% Finland 97.14%
Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia 96.85% Poland 97.31%
Czech Republic

77.04%

Slovakia 97.98%
Slovenia 94.72% Croatia 98.19%
Serbia 97.54% Montenegro 95.26%
Macedonia 95.26% Greece 96.77%
Romania 97.59% Bulgaria 97.71%
Turkey 97.97% Belarus

71.29%

Ukraine

82.74%

Russian Federation

57.01%

Malta 92.46% Cypre 94.47%

The only countries where Google does not own the majority of search results are the Czech Republic (thanks to Seznam), Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia (thanks to Yandex, which is unfortunately losing market share).

Sad, isn't it? With such a monopoly put in place by Google, it's pretty easy to understand why even a simple change in its algorithm is able to send a big portion of European SEOs into a state of panic.

But really, aren't the above figures representative of the way people actually search and find information on the Internet, and, eventually, visit our websites? The answer is yes, but not quite.

To explain my slightly contradictory answer, let's look at an interesting study a friend of mine, Paolo Zanzottera, shared at the ConvegnoGT conference in December. 

Research and methodology

Paolo presented the results of an extensive analysis of data obtained through the Italian Web Analytics platform, ShinyStat. He used this data to paint a picture of what search and Internet usage in Italy has looked like over the last few years. The data samples Paolo worked with include:

  • Reference period: January 1, 2010 - October 31, 2012
  • Basic metric analyzed: visits (DAA) from the world of Italian sites (89.18% from Italy)
  • Sampling of visits: random visits (1 random visit out of 30 in distributed days and hours of the week)
  • Size of search sample: 300,117,541 visits from search engines
  • Size of social sample: 47,032,022 visits from social networks
  • Total size of the sample: 750,022,334 visits
  • Number of sites analyzed: 3.000 websites during the fixed period of time distributed in 47 categories and divided into 5 kinds of traffic

Let's take a look at the data displayed in a more meaningful way.

Visits from search engines

Visits from Search Engines to Italian site 2010 - 2012

Visits from search engines to Italian sites 2010-2012

As we can see from the chart above, organic search is constantly increasing. The increase between January 2010 and October 2012 alone was 154.49 (39.34% between 2011 and 2012). 

Please note that the increase is not represented as a constantly ascending line; instead, it presents a series of ups and downs, which are not justifiable only with seasonality. Indeed, the peaks of traffic volume should be explained through a bigger identification of the search engines through mass media as they are in correspondence with events that mark the news and impact on the awareness of the users (e.g. elections, political scandals, the earthquake in Emilia Romagna, sporting events, etc.).

In Italy, Google is not the only current search engine. In fact, there are international search engines like Bing, Yahoo, and Ask; and "national" search engines, such as Virgilio, Arianna, and Tiscali. Yet, as the chart below shows, the domination of Google is obvious.

Visits from single search engines

Visits from single search engines

In reality, all the Italian national search engines (and Conduit, which is French) are powered by Google, so its domination is even more evident here:

Visit from "algorithm"

Organic visit by "algorithm"

This domination is shown even further in the following market shares. Please note that Google was able to increase their market share, despite the recent Bing/Yahoo alliance.

Algorithm market shares in Italy 2010 vs 2012

Algorithm market shares in Italy 2010 vs 2012

If Google is typically the only search engine used, then it is important to know how the organic traffic to our sites is coming from the different Google organic algorithms. In this case, the research defined four verticals:

  1. Web
  2. Images
  3. News
  4. Maps

Note: a Google vertical like YouTube is not included in this research, as it was meant as a social platform.

Organic Search Powered by Google in 2012

Organic search powered by Google in 2012

What about the evolution of how Italian sites where searched? The data collected by Paolo clearly show us how users are progressively moving from the old classic "one-word query" to more sophisticated middle and long-tail keywords. 

It's important to note that the use of single-word queries is not typically due to a user's potential ignorance in the use of search engines, but is more likely due to searches for brand names or domain names.

Keyword Lenght Evolution 2010 vs 2012

Keyword length evolution 2010 vs 2012

Another important topic when it comes to organic search is the impact of Not Provided. The chart below shows us that Not Provided is clearly impacting Italian organic search, but the percentage in October 2012 is not high enough to prevent correct SEO work ( it was at 14.85%). Nonetheless, the rise of Not Provided in organic search is impressive and constant.

Obviously, in very specific topics, the percentage of Not Provided can rise up to almost the 50% of the searches:

Not Provided vs Provided Evolution 2010 - 2012

Not Provided vs Provided evolution 2010-2012

Social traffic

The impact of social media in organic traffic is, without a doubt, one of the most important events of the last few years.

This trend is evident in Italy, too. Keep in mind that in Italy, the "mainstream acceptance" of new Internet tools usually happens later than in the USA (or UK). This was the case for Twitter, which just exploded during the last 14 months. That said, this delay in accepting and using new tools seems increasingly shorter,  as exemplified by the acceptance of Pinterest, which in Italy has suddenly adopted in close comparison to the rest of the world.

Twitter and Pinterest explosions

Twitter and Pinterest explosions in Italy

In Italy, social media's status of "popular" and only used by a small, very active group of early adopters changed to become widely accepted between 2010 and 2011. Social media is now part of a completely mainstream environment (+1768%). But the data collected via ShinyStat shows us that around October 2011, the referral traffic from social media had a dramatic boost. This boost was so powerful that in October 2012, the traffic from social media was equal to the one between January and October 2010!

If we compare this chart with the chart highlighting the evolution of visits from search engines presented in the beginning of this post, we will see that news and events are the main generators of traffic from social networks. It is a completely natural occurence as social media outlets are the places where people discover news, talk about what's going on in their area, and even generate news stories.

Evolution of traffic from Social Networks in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Evolution of traffic from social media in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Twitter and Pinterest are interesting and important social networks, but in social media (as in search), there is just one, almost monopolistic, dominator of social media in Italy: Facebook.

Evolution of traffic from Social Networks in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Evolution of traffic from the different social networks in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Right now, Facebook represents 97.69% of the referral traffic from social networks, while the amount of visits generated by the other social networks is almost “symbolic:”

Social Networks market shares in Italy 2010 vs 2012

Social network market shares in Italy 2010 vs 2012

As we can see, just 0.22% of visits from social networks right now are from Google+. However, recent studies show that in the last couple of months, Google+ is actually growing with a faster rhythm than Twitter.

So, how is it the overall quality of traffic from social networks in Italy? Not so good, according to metrics like bounce rate and pages per visit that Paolo used in order to have a first raw “quality analysis.” Bounce rate from social is usually very high, and the time per visit and pages per visit numbers are much lower than the numbers from search engines.

With these statistics, is it possible to represent the larger influence of social versus the use of search in Italy? Yes, it is:

Search traffic vs Social traffic in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Search traffic vs social traffic in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Both are growing, but the distance between search traffic and social traffic is getting smaller.

If we visualize the traffic volumes in percentages, then the growing importance of social networks is even more evident. Here are the social traffic shares in January 2010:

Search vs. Social January 2010

Search vs. social in Italy on January 2010

And here in October 2012:

Search vs. Social on October 2012

Search vs. social in Italy on October 2012

All of these “versus” analyses are confirming something we already know to be true through experience: in Italy, the real competitor of Google is Facebook:

Google vs. Facebook vs. Others (meant as other Search Engines and Social Networks) on October 2012

Google vs. Facebook vs. Others (i.e. search engines and social networks) on October 2012

Desktop vs. mobile

Mobile is an hot topic, and the charts we see usually refer to USA or UK markets. But what about countries like Italy? Maybe you don’t know yet, but Italy (and, similarly, Spain), is one of the nations where the mobile market is more evolved than the biggest players in the technology game.

The ShinyStat data shows us how mobile is on the rise in Italy. Thanks to the über fast evolution of smartphones, the introduction of iPad and Android phones/tablets, and the use of Internet everywhere, mobile is literally exploding:

Growth of visits from Mobile in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Growth of visits from mobile in Italy between 2010 and 2012

In less than three years, the traffic from mobile devices to Italian sites grew 8x. The spikes are easy to understand as they correspond to August’s metrics. Italians cannot seem to shut their smartphones off (even when they are on holiday), and during August 2012, one of five visits came from a mobile device.

In reference to mobile iOS, Italy reflects global trends well:

Evolution of traffic from Mobile and iOS in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Evolution of traffic from mobile and iOS in Italy between 2010 and 2012 

In Italy, too, we see that there are two clear competitors: iOS (Apple) and Android (Google). 

It is interesting to notice that the distance in terms of traffic generated between the two operating systems seems stable. What does that mean? It means that Android didn't really eroded market share from Apple, but inherited users from all the platforms outside of iOS, especially Symbian:

Mobile market shares by iOS in Italy on January 2010

Mobile market shares by iOS in Italy on January 2010

Mobile market shares by iOS in Italy on October 2012

Mobile market shares by iOS in Italy on October 2012

The ShinyStat data allow us to dig even deeper into the analysis of mobile traffic. For instance, let's take a look at the traffic from Apple devices. In this chart, we can see that users are moving from using their iPhones for searching and visiting sites to using iPads:

Traffic from iPhone vs traffic from iPad in Italy between 2010 and 2012

Traffic from iPhone vs traffic from iPad in Italy between 2010 and 2012

The war of the browsers

Part of the analysis presented by Paolo Zanzottera was focused on which browsers are used for visiting Italian sites between 2010 and 2012:

Use of browser between 2010 and 2012

Browser use between January 2010 and October 2012

We can easily see how Internet Explorer (and, similarly, Firefox) were used for steady amounts of visits to Italian sites between 2010 and 2012. In an agrressively competitive industry that is ever-changing, this statistic is basically saying that Internet Explorer and Firefox lost market share for being static. The charts below give us even more confirmation:

Browsers' Market Share January 2010

Browser market share January 2010

Browser Market Shares on October 2012

Browser market share October 2012

Takeaways

So, what conclusions about the Italian Internet and search industry can we draw from this analysis?

First, thinking about optimizing for Google only while working as an inbound marketing strategy is shortsighted, even in countries such as Italy (and most likely the other European countries) where Google has no stand-out competitor in search. User behavior suggests that, although Google is currently winning the race, they might not be forever. Along with that thought, the weight of social media (with Facebook leading the charge) is so heavily tied to SEO that today, it could be synonymous with the term "SEOcial."

Secondly, it has become absolutely clear that even in a market like Italy's (and certainly Europe as a whole), we must understand that the Internet is everywhere, and we must complete the final transition from a desktop-only world to a multi-device Internet marketing strategy. As a consequence, conversion rate optimization of mobile sites, not just SEO, should be a priority of every web marketer during 2013.

Finally, a more general conclusion can be made: user behavior when searching and using the Internet is changing at a rate even higher than that of just a few years ago.

If we use the Italian case as a benchmark, we have observed that the market is largely different today from what was just two years ago. The increased speed in changing behaviors is a factor that needs to be explained, especially to those whose decisions make the most impact in any business. A lengthy amount of time spent on decision making, fueled by excessive bureaucracy, can be equal to a disaster online at the current rate of change.


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High Fiving the Little Guy

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
 

Watch Live at 1:15 p.m. EST: President Obama calls on Congress to reduce the deficit in a balanced way. Watch on WhiteHouse.gov/Live.

High Fiving the Little Guy

President Barack Obama high fives a youngster at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in St. Paul, Minn., Feb. 4, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama high fives a youngster at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in St. Paul, Minn., Feb. 4, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Preventing Violence: President Obama Asks Americans to Stand Up and Say "This Time It's Different"
Yesterday, President Obama visited Minnesota, where he told a crowd that the best way to make significant progress towards reducing gun violence in this country is for the American people to decide change is important.

Honoring Rosa Parks on the 100th Anniversary of her Birth
The release of a postage stamp honoring Rosa Parks on the 100th anniversary of her birthday commemorates the courage and legacy of an American civil rights icon.

How Are Race to the Top States Doing in Year Two?
The Department of Education released reports for 12 Race to the Top states, showcasing their improvements in helping our education system.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

7:00 AM: The Vice President will meet with British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg

7:30 AM: Dr. Biden will join Mrs. Marjorie Susman in welcoming British military veterans and their families for a reception at Winfield House

8:00 AM: The Vice President will meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

11:00 AM: The President meets with progressive and labor leaders

1:15 PM: The President Delivers a statement WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:25 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:20 PM: The President meets with business leaders

4:30 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Panetta

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : Getting a ridiculous behemoth (and two California gigs)

 

Getting a ridiculous behemoth (and two California gigs)

Many of you that missed out on pre-ordering the 800 page behemoth that I published late last year have asked for a chance to get one. Since you're the biggest sneezers of the ideas in my books, I thought I'd put together a simple fundraiser for the Acumen Fund (limited to the first 200 people). 

Visit this page and order a pre-set package of books from 8CR and I'll send you, at my expense, one of the last remaining copies of the Behemoth. (US orders only, please, because shipping costs so much).  I'll also make a $10,000 donation to Acumen in the name of those that get in on it.

ALSO! I've been invited to come to LA on March 16 as the opening keynote (program, tickets) for a day-long conference, and also to appear in Costa Mesa, CA on the evening of the 15th.

You can get your Costa Mesa ticket with a few books thrown in as a bonus by clicking here.


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Seth's Blog : "We don't need to make it better"

 

"We don't need to make it better"

Improvement comes with many costs.

It costs time and money to make something better. It's risky, as well, because trying to make something better might make it worse. Perhaps making it better for the masses makes it worse for the people who already like it. And risk brings fear, because that means someone is going to be held responsible, and so the lizard brain wants out.

Which is why, unless there's an urgent reason to make something better right now, most organizations naturally don't volunteer to improve.

Operating systems, government programs, established non-profits, teachers with tenure, market leaders, businesses with long-standing customers--these organizations are all facing an uphill battle in creating a culture where there's an urgency to improve.

Just because it's uphill doesn't mean it's hopeless, though. One of the most essential tasks a leader faces is understanding just how much the team is afraid of making things better (because it usually means making things worse--for some people).


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luni, 4 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


"No Secret Book" says Luis Barcenas; Another Sideshow Diversion

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 07:09 PM PST

The ongoing political scandal in Spain is unfolding as expected, with a hell of a lot of mud slinging.

In case you are new to the story please consider Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises

Next consider the amusing threats and carefully-crafted denials of the day as noted by the Huffington Post (Spanish edition) article "No Secret Book".
The PP extesorero exgerente and Luis Barcenas has said on Monday that the secret papers released last week by the newspaper El País are "blatant manipulation".

"There has not been a secret book ", [Barcenas] told Antena 3 on the door of his home, located in one of the most luxurious areas of Madrid. Barcenas has revealed that his lawyers are preparing lawsuits against media outlets that have posted entries.

Within hours of the country publish the secret documents that linked much of the dome of the PP with the collection of bonuses in black, Barcenas issued a statement assuring that in the years when he was manager and treasurer of the PP never realized leaders payments not covered by accounting officially declared , nor was any record of inflows or outflows of funds other than those stated.

FULL STATEMENT OF Luis Barcenas

"Given the news published in different media and particularly in today's edition of the newspaper" El País "hereby means I come to reveal the following:

  1. In the years when I was manager and later treasurer's Party, never carried or me or any other person record of inflows or outflows of funds other than those officially declared by the party.
  2. At least during the said period, never delivered any of the persons mentioned by the newspaper "El País", or any other amounts that have not been appropriately reflected in the only existing accounts in the Party.
  3. Throughout the repeated period, there was also in the party donation or contribution that did not meet any applicable regulations and / or was not properly reflected in the accounts of the Party and entered in the current account of donations.
  4. In strict compliance with the Act, the accounts of the Party was always presented to the Court of Auditors for audit, that court issuing appropriate reports throughout the said period blameless in the matter.
  5. Never in the many years of service I had the honor to play in the Popular Party consented, I hosted or perform any action that might involve a breach of the Act or the strict ethical principles of the Party.
  6. Whenever I tried to act with the utmost transparency in managing revenues and expenses of the party, as I know Lapuerta also made Alvaro, and if I make a mistake-as-I certainly was not getting any money or taking accounting parallel other than the only one existing in the Party.
  7. I reserve all legal actions, civil and criminal, amparen me to the manifest contempt for the truth and to me that is being carried out by those released to the public today falsehoods as those collected by "The Country".
  8. Finally I wish to record my deep expresses regret at the unfair damage you want to do with these false information to people who, with Mariano Rajoy at the front, I've always shown a high moral, professional and personal, blameless.

Mish Comments

  • I accept the fact there is "no secret book". It has been published and thus is no longer a secret.
  • Reserving legal actions is pointless. Unless newspapers knowingly published a false book, charges are ridiculous.
  • If Barcenas can prove he legally acquired the money for the slush fund, he should do so immediately.
  • If Rajoy can prove he paid taxes on the amounts received, he should also do so immediately.

Whether you are new to the story or not, let's review comments I made earlier today in Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises
Curious Defense

Well here we are again, with a sideshow on whether the money was declared or not. Moreover, and more importantly, with all the names and dates, it should be known 100% without a doubt whether the entries are accurate or not.

If indeed Rajoy, did declare all the income, then it should be easily seen in tax records. So what did Rajoy declare on taxes?

Do the numbers match? If not, why not? Instead we have a pair of sideshows regarding a font and whether or not the money was declared.

If the documents were fake, would the matter need to be studied or would the PP would come straight out and declare, "the documents are fake"?

Moreover, if the documents were fake (and perhaps even if they weren't, it would be in Bárcenas' best interest to challenge their authenticity.

So, where is the statement from Bárcenas that they are fake?

Instead, Bárcenas threatened to set off a political "atom bomb" if convicted. If everyone is innocent, then it is logically impossible to set off a political bomb of any size, let alone an "atom bomb".

Simply put, the denials do not add up.

For more on the scandal, the denials, the "atom bomb" threat, and Rajoy's effort to squash the news, please see Big Brother in Action: EU Wants Power to Sack Journalists; Prime Minister Rajoy Threatens Newspapers Following Corruption Articles.
Another Sideshow Diversion

We now see yet another diversion attempt. This time the diversion is "There has not been a secret book".

This distraction attempt follows Rajoy's diversionary tactic regarding "undeclared money",  preposterous lawsuit threats by Rajoy and Bárcenas, and the PP wanting an investigation to see if the documents are real (even though neither the PP nor Rajoy denied their authenticity).

Once again I point out the laughable notion is that the published Bárcenas documents are fake. Seriously, wouldn't Bárcenas know? And if they were fake, surely Bárcenas would make that claim.

Yet, here we are with the PP demanding an investigation as to whether or not the documents are fake, with denials of "secret" books, and with smoke-blowing lawsuit threats.

The smoke, intimidation tactics, and outright lies have likely just begun. If this all sounds too familiar it's because it is familiar.

Richard Nixon: "I am not a crook".
Bill Clinton: "I did not have sex with that woman".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:39 AM PST

Rajoy Denies Receiving "Undeclared" Money

After waiting for days to make a statement, prime minister Mariano Rajoy stepped up to the plate with a fuzzy denial on Saturday following an emergency meeting of the Popular Party's executive committee.

"This is all false. I'm not in politics for money. I have never received undeclared money" said Rajoy.

Questions Abound

  • Where did the slush fund money come from?
  • Who were the recipients?
  • What were the totals?
  • Were the payments legal?
  • Did Rajoy really pay taxes on all of it?

The reference to "undeclared money" went away in firmer denial  from Rajoy, "Never, I repeat never, did I receive or hand out black money, not in this party nor anywhere else".

I am not positive of the order of those denials, but based on article timestamps, I believe I have them in the right order.

Adding fat to the denial fire, accounting books allegedly written and kept by Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer, implicate Rajoy personally, to the tune of €322,231.

Meanwhile, anger is mounting and police barricaded the PP headquarters in response to gathering groups of protesters.

Anger Rises

The Financial Times reports Anger rises as scandal rocks Rajoy
Mariano Rajoy waited more than two days to comment on the slush fund scandal threatening to engulf both the Spanish prime minister and his Popular party. When the denial finally came, it was firm and unequivocal. "Never, I repeat never, did I receive or hand out black money, not in this party nor anywhere else," Mr Rajoy declared over the weekend.

Reminding Spanish voters of his decision to drop a lucrative career as a property notary decades ago, Mr Rajoy said on Saturday: "I didn't enter politics to make money. I entered politics losing money."

His assurances, however, did nothing to silence the rising popular anger over alleged secret payments to senior members of Mr Rajoy's centre-right Popular party, which has been rocked by a stream of embarrassing revelations over the past days. Hours after he spoke, riot police cordoned off the streets around the PP headquarters in central Madrid in preparation for the latest in a wave of small but widespread demonstrations against political corruption.

Asked whether they approve of Mr Rajoy, 77 per cent of Spaniards say no. The poll appeared alongside a fresh batch of revelations, after the paper decided to publish extensive excerpts of accounting books allegedly written and kept by Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer. According to the latest report, the books record 35 payments to Mr Rajoy himself worth a total of €322,231 between 1997 and 2008.
Document Snapshot

La Razon reports The PP will commission a survey of the supposed "roles" Barcenas



In the alleged notes of former PP treasurer Luis Barcenas striking that the font is the same for all entries, which would mean that he would have written Barcenas year after year with the same layout. It is as if the author had aimed names and figures in one sitting all data as belonging to different dates and spaced in time.

Documents Real?

Press Euro reports 'The PP demands expert analysis of the Bárcenas documents to prove they are fake'
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's People's Party (PP) wants to submit the original copies of the secret financial notes alleged to have been written by his former treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, to experts in order to determine whether they are genuine.

According to the account records, published by El País, key members of the PP received additional undeclared payments between 1990 and 2008. Mariano Rajoy has said publicly that he has "never" received any undeclared money ...
Curious Defense

Well here we are again, with a sideshow on whether the money was declared or not. Moreover, and more importantly, with all the names and dates, it should be known 100% without a doubt whether the entries are accurate or not.

If indeed Rajoy, did declare all the income, then it should be easily seen in tax records. So what did Rajoy declare on taxes?

Do the numbers match? If not, why not? Instead we have a pair of sideshows regarding a font and whether or not the money was declared.

If the documents were fake, would the matter need to be studied or would the PP would come straight out and declare, "the documents are fake"?

Moreover, if the documents were fake (and perhaps even if they weren't), it would be in Bárcenas' best interest to challenge their authenticity.

So, where is the statement from Bárcenas that they are fake?

Instead, Bárcenas threatened to set off a political "atom bomb" if convicted. If everyone is innocent, then it is logically impossible to set off a political bomb of any size, let alone an "atom bomb".

Simply put, the denials do not add up.

For more on the scandal, the denials, the "atom bomb" threat, and Rajoy's effort to squash the news, please see Big Brother in Action: EU Wants Power to Sack Journalists; Prime Minister Rajoy Threatens Newspapers Following Corruption Articles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Robot Wars in China; Burger Flipping Robots Serve 360 Gourmet Burgers an Hour

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:04 AM PST

With increasing frequency I see articles on how robots are taking jobs once held by humans. Typically I batch a few of them up for comments, and I have a new set now.

Last week, on the manufacturing front I reported "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots.

Alpha the Custom Burger Flipping Robot

Here is a similar story in the service industry to consider: Robot Serves Up 360 Hamburgers Per Hour
Alpha machine from Momentum Machines cooks up a tasty burger with all the fixins. And it does it with such quality and efficiency it'll produce "gourmet quality burgers at fast food prices."

With a conveyor belt-type system the burgers are freshly ground, shaped and grilled to the customer's liking. And only when the burger's finished cooking does Alpha slice the tomatoes and pickles and place them on the burger as fresh as can be. Finally, the machine wraps the burger up for serving.

Alpha churns out a painless 360 hamburgers per hour. Saving money with Alpha is pretty easy to imagine. You don't even need cashiers or servers. Customers could just punch in their order, pay, and wait at a dispensing window.

For their next model Momentum Machines plans on adding a custom meat grinding feature so it can mix different meats – 1/3 pork, 2/3 bison sounds like a tasty combo – in the same burger. They'll also give it gourmet cooking abilities that seasoned chefs use such as charring the burger while retaining its juiciness.

The company plans on launching the first ever restaurant chain with a cook staff made entirely of robots. But not only might we soon find Alpha's creations at local burger joints, but the company is also targeting convenience stores, food trucks, and somehow even vending machines.

Robot Wars in China

China Daily reports Chinese robot wars set to erupt
Recent research conducted by the consultancy Ernst & Young LLP suggests that the average annual labor cost per worker rose to more than 40,000 yuan ($6,400) in 2011, from less than 25,000 yuan five years ago.

Given the context, it's easy to calculate the tradeoffs of getting a robot. "In fact, industrial robots are already cheaper than workers in China's eastern regions," said Wang Tianmiao, who heads the expert panel of robot technology under the State High-Tech Development Plan.

Wang said a typical industrial robot costs around 300,000 yuan and has annual maintenance costs of 20,000 yuan. The total layout of 500,000 yuan over 10 years is considerably less than that for a 6,000-yuan-a-month technician, and robots can work three times more efficiently.

Technology Kills Middle-Class Jobs

Yahoo! News reports Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs.
Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over.

And the situation is even worse than it appears.

Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What's more, these jobs aren't just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren't just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.

They're being obliterated by technology.

Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived.

"There's no sector of the economy that's going to get a pass," says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote "The Lights in the Tunnel," a book predicting widespread job losses. "It's everywhere."

The numbers startle even labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

Experts warn that this "hollowing out" of the middle-class workforce is far from over. They predict the loss of millions more jobs as technology becomes even more sophisticated and reaches deeper into our lives.

The most vulnerable workers are doing repetitive tasks that programmers can write software for — an accountant checking a list of numbers, an office manager filing forms, a paralegal reviewing documents for key words to help in a case. As software becomes even more sophisticated, victims are expected to include those who juggle tasks, such as supervisors and managers — workers who thought they were protected by a college degree.
Seemingly, there is no end to this. Software robots handle voice activated queries and mechanical robots replace humans in manufacturing.

If a job is repetitive and programmable, a robot is out to get it. That even includes minimum wage jobs in manufacturing and in food service.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com