vineri, 23 mai 2014

Seth's Blog : Conventions and expectations

 

Conventions and expectations

When you launch something new, you're almost certainly placing it into a section of the world that already has expectations about how things like this are supposed to work. A university gives diplomas. Restaurant waiters take tips. Software ought to have a 'save as' button.

It can be far more subtle than that. An emergency room waiting area looks very different from the waiting area at the chiropractor's office, even though both have the same function (waiting). The sound quality and background noise on a personal phone call sounds subtly different from one that's coming from a call center. A well-published book has chapters that start on the right-hand page.

Challenging conventions is precisely what makes your thing new. Hence unconventional. The difficulty comes when you challenge conventions and defy expectations that you weren't planning on upsetting. The inadvertent skipping of what we expect causes you to frustrate us, or to appear as an uncaring, unprepared amateur, or both.

Polish comes from domain knowledge, from having an intimate understanding of what people like your customers expect when they encounter something like the thing you just built. Sure, violate those expectations when they serve your needs. The rest of the time, though, it's smart to play along.

       

 

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Co-Signing a Loan is Risky Business For You, Your Family, Your Heirs, Even the Borrower: More Student Loan Debt Slave Nightmares

Posted: 22 May 2014 04:16 PM PDT

Thinking of co-signing a loan for your son or daughter to go to college? I have a single word of advice: don't.

The Huffington Post notes numerous horror stories related to co-signing student loans. Please consider Sallie Mae Torments Faithful Student Borrowers After Co-Signers Die
Seven borrowers who had been paying their Sallie Mae student loans on time for years were unexpectedly threatened with asset seizures after a Sallie Mae contractor demanded they immediately repay tens of thousands of dollars simply because a family member had died.

Regina Kibler, a retiree who lives off payments from her late husband's life insurance policy, spent days agonizing over how to help her son, Christopher, pay back nearly $22,000 neither had. Samantha Flora hired a lawyer to fight attempts to recoup some $20,000 from her dead grandmother's estate that have turned members of her family against one another.

Tony Muzzatti, a 31-year-old Washington, D.C., resident who works in television and who owed Sallie Mae about $60,000, was asked to make a $10,000 down payment in January following the 2012 death of his grandmother, despite six years of on-time payments to Sallie Mae.
HuffPo has numerous other horror stories, all involving co-signing loans. What it did not have was the degrees the borrowers have and where they are working now. These cases all involved people generally paying debts on time.

What about those with no job? What about those with low-pay jobs who cannot possibly pay the loan back before the co-signer dies?

The former will be an immediate headache, the latter a delayed headache.

Education is way overpriced and student loans are part of the reason. Co-signing compounds the problem, while making the student and the co-signer indefinite debt slaves.

The moral of the story is simple: don't co-sign.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Existing Home Sales "Rebound": Headline Hype vs. Reality

Posted: 22 May 2014 09:29 AM PDT

This morning, headline news stories talk of a "rebound" in existing home sales and why rising inventory is good for the market.

Let's separate the hype from reality starting with the hype. Please consider Existing Home Sales Rebound, Inventory Increases.
U.S. home resales rose in April and the supply of properties on the market increased, suggesting the housing market was regaining its footing.

The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales increased 1.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.65 million units, marking the second increase in sales in nine months.

Though an usually [Mish note - They meant unusually] cold winter depressed activity, a dearth of homes for sale also stymied demand. Sales are expected to gradually trend higher for the rest of 2014 as job growth and the overall economy accelerate.

And there is reason to be optimistic. The inventory of unsold homes on the market increased 6.5 percent from a year-ago and the median home price increased at its slowest pace since March 2012.

The months' supply increased to 5.9 months, the highest since August 2012, from 5.1 months in March. Six months' supply is normally considered as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Headline Hype vs. Reality

Let's now compare the hype with the reality, starting with a pair of seasonally adjusted existing home sales graphs.

"Rebound" in Home Sales



Second Rise in Nine Months



Fundamental Reality

There is absolutely nothing in the above charts that remotely suggests a reason to be optimistic or that housing is "regaining its footing".

Moreover, the author failed to discuss interest rates, student debt, investor demand, or household formation.

Here's the reality: Interest rates are up, prices are up, and affordability is down. Investor demand was a huge portion of the market, and rising inventory suggests investors are more discriminating.

Sales may increase in spite of those fundamentals, but virtually nothing suggests that outcome. 

The author describes the increase in supply as "healthy". In context, it's not. While six month's supply may be normal, the more important fact is supply is outpacing demand by quite a bit.

The expected result should be for prices to drop. While I consider that a good thing, most don't. And if the supply trend continues, it will provide evidence of pent-up-demand, not to buy, but to sell.

Finally, given all the emphasis on the "usually cold winter", one might wonder why the rebound was as small as it was, and also why the rebound was "less than expected".

The above article is about as slanted as it gets, including this line: "Sales are expected to gradually trend higher for the rest of 2014 as job growth and the overall economy accelerate."

Did someone from the NAR write that article?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

joi, 22 mai 2014

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


See What's In The Lost And Found At Coachella 2014

Posted: 22 May 2014 05:36 PM PDT

A lot of things get lost at music festivals and Coachella seems to have collected a lot of keys. How did those people get home?















Source

Find Out How Much These DJs Make At Every Show

Posted: 22 May 2014 10:19 AM PDT

These DJs make crazy amounts of money. These guys are definitely living it up as they make more from one gig than most people make in an entire year.



















Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone dancing 24 years apart

Posted: 22 May 2014 09:44 AM PDT

These are two of the most famous actors in the entire world and they love to dance with each other while they're at Cannes.










FIAT 500 Through The Years [Infographic]

Posted: 22 May 2014 09:22 AM PDT

The Fiat 500 is one of the most iconic cars ever produced and is considered one of the first city cars. Below is an infographic detailing the different versions of the Fiat 500 and how it has changed between 1957 and 2014.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via thamesmotorgroup.co.uk