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duminică, 24 ianuarie 2016

Seth's Blog : All my best posts are the posts I haven't written

All my best posts are the posts I haven't written

Sometimes I'll get a great idea for a post while out walking or showering or generally not in front of a keyboard. Not just great ideas, but fabulous ones.

And then, after rehearsing the keywords over and over so I don't forget before I write it down, I forget.

And that post, the post I didn't write, the post that never saw the light of day--that's the best post ever.

I think most dreams work this way.

The thing is, an unwritten post is no post at all. It's merely a little bit of gossamer on wings of hope. Doesn't count.

The only good posts are the ones I've written.

I think most dreams work this way, too.

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sâmbătă, 23 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Arrogant Trump: "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"

Posted: 23 Jan 2016 03:30 PM PST

At an Iowa rally earlier today, Donald Trump made the arrogant claim "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters".

CNN reported Trump refused to clarify what he meant.

Donald Trump boasted Saturday that support for his presidential campaign would not decline even if he shot someone in the middle of a crowded street.

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," Trump said at a campaign rally here.

After the event, Trump declined to answer when asked by CNN to clarify his comments.

Teflon Trump

At what point does making arrogant, seemingly idiotic statements matter?

No doubt his campaign is working on damage control now.

Here's the likely explanation: "Trump was obviously referring to being attacked and responding in kind."

Reaction So Far - Positive

Then again, perhaps Trump can just brush it off. NPR has this Report on Trump.

NPR's Don Gonyea reports that so far, the reaction to Trump's remarks has followed a familiar pattern.

"His audiences love it. His opponents try to use it against him — but so far, to no avail," Gonyea reports. "I talked to some of his supporters and they say, 'Yeah, sometimes he makes me cringe, but I still like him and I still think he's the right thing for America.' "

One supporter, who spoke to ABC News, said he found Trump's point clear — but mentioned Trump could have articulated it differently.

"He probably could've worded it a little bit better," campaign volunteer Brandon Fokkema said.

Fed Up

One thing's for sure: Former New York City mayor, Michael Bloomberg is so fed up with both Democratic and Republican candidates, that despite the longshot odds, Bloomberg Contemplates Running for President as Independent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Bloomberg Contemplates Running for President as Independent; Longest of Longshots

Posted: 23 Jan 2016 03:10 PM PST

Former New York Mayor, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, is fed up with Donald Trump, the republicans in general, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton's shift to the left to fight Sanders.

As a direct result of being fed up with everyone but himself, Michael Bloomberg Mulling Run for President as Independent.

Mr. Bloomberg, 73 years old, has long contemplated a run at the White House. But the unlikely rise and continued strength of Donald Trump, along with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton's campaign may be flagging, have driven the billionaire businessman closer than ever before to entering the race, a close adviser said Saturday.

Eyeing a potential opening for the first time, Mr. Bloomberg has retained a consultant to help him run on the independent ballot in state primaries. He has commissioned polls to test his path to victory. And he has directed the close circle of advisers who worked for him as mayor and have remained by his side over the past two years since he left office to begin mapping out a blueprint for a run, one adviser said.

That adviser said the former mayor has been upset by what he sees as extremist rhetoric from Republicans in the race, as well as a leftward turn from Mrs. Clinton, who is fending off an unexpectedly strong challenge in the Democratic primary from the more liberal Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

If he runs, Mr. Bloomberg is likely to face hurdles with voters, especially those outside the Northeast, where he is better known. A recent poll by Morning Consult showed Mr. Bloomberg receiving 13% support from voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton getting 36% and Republican Donald Trump 37%. The same poll found that 43% of voters either hadn't heard of Mr. Bloomberg or had no opinion. Morning Consult said the poll was conducted from Jan. 14 to Jan. 17 among a sample of 4,060 registered voters around the country.

Longest of Longshots

Should he choose to run, Bloomberg would be the longest of longshots. But, he has a lot of money to waste.

Should he choose to do so, would it help or hurt Trump?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : The client and the customer

The client and the customer

This is a choice, a huge one in the life of the freelancer, the entrepreneur or anyone who seeks to engage with the marketplace.

The customer buys (or doesn't buy) what you make.

The client asks you to make something.

The customer has the power to choose, but the client has the power to define, insist and spec.

There is a large number of potential customers, and you make for them before you know precisely who they are.

There are just a relative handful of clients, though, and your work happens after you find them.

If a customer doesn't like what's on offer, she can come back tomorrow. If the client doesn't like what you deliver, she might leave forever.

You can do great work for either.

But don't confuse them.

Choose your customers. Choose your clients.

And most of all, choose which category you're serving.

[Worth noting: Software and the internet let us disrupt a market by transforming clients into customers and customers into clients. People who used to have to take what was an offer can now get a customized version almost as easily. And people who used to pay extra for the bespoke version can now have the convenience and economy of merely buying what's on offer.]

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vineri, 22 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Former Hasbro CEO Says "Providence Should Consider Bankruptcy"; An Option Chicago Needs
Existing Home Sales Bounce Essentially a Mirage; Supply Drops to 11-Year Low: Is that a Problem?
Fourth Industrial Revolution: Robots, Artificial Intelligence Will Destroy 5.1 Million Jobs by 2020
China Openly Pledges to Sink the Yuan vs. the Dollar

Former Hasbro CEO Says "Providence Should Consider Bankruptcy"; An Option Chicago Needs

Posted: 22 Jan 2016 12:40 PM PST

Providence, the capital of Rhode Island, is in such bad financial straits that Former Hasbro CEO Alan Hassenfeld has this scary message for state officials Providence Should Consider Bankruptcy.

In a candid interview with the Providence Business News, Hassenfeld said he fears Providence is in deeper trouble "than anyone comprehends" and that officials should consider bankruptcy in order to right the ship.

"I'm not sure, and this will shock you, I'm not sure if we shouldn't pull a Detroit or Central Falls and level the playing field and start all over," Hassenfeld told PBN.

Hassenfeld is among the most prominent Rhode Islanders to publicly suggest Providence should consider bankruptcy.

In 2011, tiny Central Falls filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, slashing pensions and ordering 4% annual tax increases for five straight years in order to improve the city's finances. Under new Mayor James Diossa, the city has earned high praise for helping the city recover, but Central Falls had the state's fourth-highest residential property tax rate ($27.63 per $1,000 of assessed value) and second-highest commercial tax rate ($39.67 per $1,000) in 2015, according to the state Division of Municipal Finance.

Illinois Needs Bankruptcy Solution

A least Rhode Island offers cities and municipalities a choice.

Illinois has no provision for municipal bankruptcies. As a direct consequence, Illinois cities and school districts sink deeper and deeper in debt, even though taxes go higher and higher.

Illinois "Too Big a Risk"

Chicago was supposedly on the "short list" of cities GE was considering for its new headquarters. But GE instead selected Boston.

GE said "Illinois Too Big a Risk".

GE accurately cited Chicago schools, pensions, corporate tax rates, financial meltdowns, budget holes, and a rock-bottom state debt rating.

Too many risks? You bet. So what is mayor Emmanuel and the Illinois legislature going to do about it?

Tax Hikes and More Tax Hikes

Mayor Rahm Emanuel's solution to this mess was to make the biggest tax hike in history.

On October 28, 2015 I commented Chicago's Sheep Dogs Approve Mayor's Tax on Sheep; Quote of the Day "It's Not a Piece of Art".

The "sheep" in question are Chicago taxpayers who will need to pony up a historic property tax hike of $589 million to fund the city's police and fire department pensions.

Deal or No Deal

25 cents out of every Illinois taxpayer dollar goes to Illinois pensions. Yet, Illinois has the worst funded state pensions in the entire nation.

On January 20, I reported "B" Word Hits Chicago: Illinois Governor Proposes Bankruptcy for Chicago Public School System.

To appease the unions and save his own job in the process, mayor Emanuel's spokeswoman, Kelley Quinn, responded "The mayor is 100 percent opposed to Gov. Rauner's 'plan' to drive CPS bankrupt," Emanuel's.

I commented "When a politician's job depends on not understanding a problem, there's no way in hell the problem will be understood."

Yesterday I read Illinois governor Bruce Rauner and the Democrats agreed on a pension deal. Just hours later the deal fell through.

A headline that yesterday said "deal reached" today says "Rauner backs Cullerton pension plan - but Cullerton says it's not his plan".

The fundamental difference is over collective bargaining. Cullerton said he believes collective bargaining should continue to exist, but Rauner disagrees.

No Deal

Governor Rauner says "reforms first". Emanuel and the Democratic legislature say "money first".

Rauner would be a fool to accept that offer. So we sit.

Illinois still does not have a budget for 2015. A quick check of my calendar says it's already 2016.

I applaud Rauner's holdout.

Chicago should not get one dime until Illinois gets needed changes in bankruptcy law, and until cities can escape the enormous expense of prevailing wages laws and collective bargaining.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Existing Home Sales Bounce Essentially a Mirage; Supply Drops to 11-Year Low: Is that a Problem?

Posted: 22 Jan 2016 10:56 AM PST

Home Sales Bounce Misleading

December existing Home Sales bounced a whopping 14.7% from November's dismal showing. But most of that bounce is a mirage.

Last month, new documentation rules pushed sales into December.

Smoothing out the distortions, the average of the last two months was 5.11 million. That's well below the 5.43 average of the prior six months.

So, there were indeed distortions last month, but there is also underlying weakness.

Bloomberg Econoday reports ...

Existing home sales bounced back sharply in December, up an outsized 14.7 percent to a 5.46 million annualized rate that just tops Econoday's top-end forecast. Year-on-year, sales are up 7.7 percent in a major contrast with the minus 3.8 percent rate of November. But November was an unusual month skewed lower by new documentation rules that pushed sales into December. Averaging the two months together shows a 5.11 million rate that is well below the 5.43 average of the prior six months. Total sales for 2015 came in at 5.26 million, well up from 4.94 million in 2014.

Single-family homes led December's bounce, surging 16.1 percent to a 4.82 million rate and a 7.1 percent year-on-year gain. The trend for condos has been much stronger with the year-on-year gain at 12.3 percent and with monthly growth in December at 4.9 percent to a 0.640 million rate.

Low supply in the market has been a big negative for sales and is a major concern in this report. Total homes on the market fell to 1.79 million from November's 2.04 million with supply relative to sales falling to only 3.9 months, far below 5.1 months in November and sizably below 4.4 months in December 2014. Supply right now of existing homes is as low as it's been in nearly 11 years, a factor the report warns that may slow sales during the spring.

But low supply is a plus for prices where data in this report are firming. The median is up 1.9 percent in the month to $224,100 for a very respectable 7.6 percent year-on-year gain.

Regional data show wide sales gains led by the West at 23.2 percent on the month followed by the South at 14.6 percent. Year-on-year, the Northeast is out in the lead at plus 11.9 percent followed by the Midwest at 9.9 percent.

Housing is showing some life but gains, including those for new homes, are being held back by lack of supply. Still, price appreciation is a rising plus and is well above other price areas including wage growth.

Price Appreciation

Is price appreciation a plus or a minus?

Bloomberg says "price appreciation is a rising plus".

I suggest that with every increase in price, homes become less and less affordable.

Supply Drops to 11-Year Low

Bloomberg says "Total homes on the market fell to 1.79 million from November's 2.04 million with supply relative to sales falling to only 3.9 months, far below 5.1 months in November."

Why did supply relative to sales plunge?

Because November sales were skewed to the downside and December to the upside. Expect a rebound in supply numbers next month.

Existing Home Sales With Distortions Smoothed

If you smooth the distortions, today's reported bounce is no more than a mirage.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fourth Industrial Revolution: Robots, Artificial Intelligence Will Destroy 5.1 Million Jobs by 2020

Posted: 22 Jan 2016 10:01 AM PST

Fourth Industrial Revolution Coming

A new study on the "Future of Jobs" by the World Economic Forum at Davos claims a Fourth Industrial Revolution is Coming.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution includes developments artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, genetics, and biotechnology.

Although no industrial revolution has ever destroyed jobs, the study concludes a net 5.1 million jobs will vanish in the world's 15 leading countries. Those countries account for roughly two-thirds of the global workforce.

The report is a 167 page PDF slog. Here are a couple of tables I created from the report data.

Job Family Losers

Job Family Losers	Job Losses in Thousands
Office and Administrative	4,759
Manufacturing and Production	1,609
Construction and Extraction	497
Arts, Design, Sports, Media	151
Legal	109
Installation and Maintenance	40
Total	7,165

Job Family Gainers

Job Family Gainers	Gains in Thousands
Business and Financial Operations	492
Management	416
Computer and Mathematical	405
Architecture and Engineering	339
Sales and Related	303
Education and Training	66
Total	2,021

I understand the losses, at least part of them. But gains in financial operations?

Everything Rosy but Healthcare

Curiously, the following chart from the report makes everything look rosy except healthcare.

I don't accept that chart, at least for the implied reasons. Yet, after boomers die off en masse, I foresee all kinds of health-related jobs will vanish until the next retirement boom hits.

Trucks and Taxis

What about truck and taxi drivers? I expect millions of truck hauling and taxi jobs will vanish soon, in the USA alone, by 2025.

I searched the report for the word "truck" and found this lone reference: "Advanced robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence can be more practical than human labour in manufacturing, as well as in a growing number of service jobs, such as cleaning and maintenance. Moreover, it is now possible to create cars, trucks, aircraft, and boats that are completely or partly autonomous, which could revolutionize transportation, if regulations allow, as early as 2020."

That paragraph was under the category "Advanced Robotics and Autonomous Transport" given a disruptive weighting of 9%.

Let's dig deeper with a look at disruptive weightings.

Technological Drivers of Change

Driver of Change	Rated as Top Trend	Expected Timeframe	Condensed Notes
Mobile internet and cloud Technology	34%	2015-2017	Rapid spread of internet-based service models
Advances in Computing Power and Big Data	26%	2015-2017	Ability to handle the unprecedented flood of data
New Energy Supplies and Technology	22%	2015-2017	New technologies like fracking and new energy supplies will have profound geopolitical and environmental repercussions
Internet of Things	14%	2015-2017	Remote sensors
Crowdsourcing and Peer-to-Peer Platforms	12%	Impact Felt Already	With peer-to-peer platforms, companies and individuals can do things that previously required large-scale organizations.
Advanced robotics and Autonomous Transport	9%	2018-2020	Robots more practical than humans in manufacturing and service jobs. Autonomous vehicles could revolutionize transportation.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning	7%	2018-2020	Voice recognition will make automation of tasks long regarded impossible for machines
Advanced Manufacturing and 3D printing	6%	2015-2017	On demand production has far-ranging implications
Advance Materials, Biotechnology, Genomics	6%	2018-2020	Life science breakthroughs will have profound impact on medicine and agriculture. Bio-engineering critical to pharmaceuticals, plastics and polymers, biofuels.

The last column is my set of abbreviated notes, condensed from descriptions in the report. The first three columns are as presented in the report.

Discussion of Disruptive Factors

I fail to see what big advances in computing power will do. Nor do I see crowdsourcing as a big factor.

I suspect crowdsourcing is one of those things with huge potential that never really flies because there is no money in it for anyone.

Remote sensors will eliminate the need for some humans, but hasn't that been underway for quite some time? If not, we can certainly get rid of all the meter maids.

On the energy side, fracking is an environmental disaster, and a bust for now, perhaps for a long time. And much of the clean energy systems only work with government subsidies. Battery technology will likely improve and replace or greatly reduce the need for gasoline. If so that will be very disruptive indeed.

But will batteries destroy jobs or just disrupt them?

Gas stations could become battery switching stations. That may require people to change the batteries, but it will also eliminate gas delivery and gas production jobs. Regardless, this type of change won't be in place by 2020.

I struggled mightily with the report's 34% rating for "Mobile Internet".

It's possible for huge numbers of teaching jobs to vanish with classes over the internet. And applications like Uber will also have an impact. Yet, this category is over-rated.

Biggest Disruptive Force

My number one job destructive force is advanced robotics and autonomous transport. Uber ties into this category as well.

Uber is adding jobs for now. In the not so distant future, long-haul trucking jobs, Uber driving jobs, and all taxi driving jobs will vanish.

Millions of driving jobs of all kinds will vanish in the US alone, by 2025 though, not 2020.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

China Openly Pledges to Sink the Yuan vs. the Dollar

Posted: 22 Jan 2016 01:38 AM PST

China Drops Dollar Peg

If China was really serious about doing what every major country in the world does, it would float the yuan.

On Thursday, I saw this MarketWatch headline: China Serious about Dropping Dollar Peg.

I was totally unimpressed after reading the article.

China will not do the one thing it has needed to do for decades: Let the Yuan float. China still insists on setting artificial pegs that the market openly mocks.

China Pledges to Sink the Yuan

DAVOS, Switzerland--A senior Chinese official Thursday affirmed China's intention to decouple its currency from the U.S. dollar, while the head of the International Monetary Fund urged Beijing to improve communication with markets about changes to its foreign-exchange regime.

For years, China has hitched the yuan's value to U.S. dollar, but its central bank signaled in December that it would break the peg and instead manage the Chinese currency against a basket of 13 currencies.

"We're serious about the basket approach," said Fang Xinghai, a senior economic adviser to the Chinese leadership, at a panel organized by the World Economic Forum here Thursday. "It's a decided strategy."

With a crawling peg, the yuan has appreciated with the strengthening U.S. dollar, hurting Chinese manufacturers while the economy is weakening. Decoupling the yuan from the dollar could help Beijing's effort to rekindle growth.

"There's some catch-up to do" when it comes to adjusting the yuan's value against the dollar, said Mr. Fang, a director-general in the Office of the Central Leading Group on Economic and Financial Affairs, which functions like the White House's National Economic Council. "Once we're done with it, the yuan will be stable again," he said.

Stability Nonsense

The entire notion that a peg creates stability is complete nonsense. But don't listen to me. Instead, ask Switzerland.

China's last peg worked, until it didn't. That peg did help China's export model as long as the US dollar was sinking.

Now China pledges to peg to a basket. In other words, China wants to sink the yuan. Supposedly this will create stability.

To reach stability, China openly admits instability.

Reserve Currency Nonsense

People keep telling me the Yuan will soon be the world's reserve currency. I have openly mocked such pronouncements for a decade. I mock such pronouncements again today.

China's bond markets are neither big enough nor liquid enough to handle the task. And China still cannot get off currency pegs.

China Drops Currency Peg It Cannot Defend

China Dropped the dollar peg. To what? To a floating peg!

Why? Because China cannot defend the existing dollar peg. China disguised that fact with a "serious" announcement pretending to be something else.

Price of Stability

Expect huge volatility. It's coming.

Instability is the price we have to pay for stability.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : On average, averages are stupid

On average, averages are stupid

"Across our 100 locations, sales on average are up 3% last month."

This tells you exactly nothing.

It turns out that ten of the outlets each saw their sales double, while most of the other ones are stagnating or even decreasing in sales. That's the insight.

Averages almost always hide insights instead of exposing them. If the problem is interesting enough to talk about, it's interesting enough to show the true groupings and differences that the average is hiding.

Here's what's worth discussing instead: What are the outliers? What do they have in common? Are there explainable trends, or is there merely noise?

The hard part about telling the truth with numbers often isn't finding the truth. It's having the guts to share the truth.

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duminică, 24 ianuarie 2016

Seth's Blog : All my best posts are the posts I haven't written

All my best posts are the posts I haven't written

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 23 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : The client and the customer

The client and the customer

More Recent Articles

vineri, 22 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : On average, averages are stupid

On average, averages are stupid

More Recent Articles

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