duminică, 2 noiembrie 2014

Seth's Blog : But not people like you

 

But not people like you

We're hiring, but not people like you.

I'm looking for a doctor, but of course, not someone like you.

We're putting together a study group, but we won't be able to include people like you.

Redlining is an efficient short-term selection strategy. At least that's what we tell ourselves. So the bank won't loan to people in that neighborhood or people with this cultural background, because, hey, we can't loan to everyone and it's easier to just draw a red line around the places not worth our time...

The challenge with redlining, beyond the fact that it's morally repugnant, is that it doesn't work. There's a difference between "people like you" and "you." You, the human being, the person with a track record and a great attitude and a skillset deserve consideration for those things, for your psychographics, not your demographics.

When there's not so much data, we often resort to crude measures of where you live or what you look like or what your name is to decide how to judge. But the same transparency that the net is giving to marketers of all sorts means that the banks and the universities and the hiring managers ought to be able to get beyond the, "like you" bias and head straight for "you."

Because 'you' is undervalued and undernoticed.

When we say, "I don't work with people like you, I won't consider supporting someone like you, I can't invest in someone like you," we've just eliminated value, wasted an opportunity and stripped away not just someone else's dignity, but our own.

What have you done? What do you know? Where are you going? Those are a great place to start, to choose people because of what they've chosen, not where they started. Not because this will always tell us what someone is capable of (too many people don't have the head start they deserve) but because it is demonstrably more useful than the crude, expensive, fear-based shortcuts we're using far too often.

In a society where it's easier than ever to see "you," we can't help but benefit when we become anti-racist, pro-feminist, in favor of equal opportunity and focused (even obsessed) on maximizing the opportunity everyone gets, early and often.

       

 

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sâmbătă, 1 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Christmas Shopping Season Starts Today: Walmart Leads the Way with Price Cuts on 20,000 Items for the Holiday Season

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 11:58 AM PDT

In the past few years the Christmas shopping season moved from the "Black Friday"  the day after Thanksgiving, to earlier and earlier starts on Thanksgiving, then to the day before Thanksgiving.

Today Walmart leapfrogged the pack with 20,000 items on sale for the holiday season.
When Halloween ends on Friday, Walmart will be switching over its stores to greet the holiday season.

On Saturday, the retailer will offer more than 20,000 "rollbacks" or sale prices on items including groceries and popular brands such as Disney "Frozen," Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Samsung, and Dell.

Then, on Monday, Walmart will relaunch its 24-hour holiday cyber savings event, in which customers can take advantage of free shipping on millions of items from Walmart.com. Orders must exceed $50 for free shipping. Walmart said it has expanded its online offerings to include 7 million items – one million more than last holiday season.
At the current rate of accelerated progression, the Christmas shopping season will soon move to October, then September. Christmas year round, anyone?

Commenting on the news, Janet Yellen said "Damn Walmart to hell! They should be raising prices not lowering them". 

Actually, I made that up, but it's likely what's going on in her mind. Indeed, it's precisely the way Keynesian and Monetarist clowns think.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Chris Martenson and Mish Audio on Bank of Japan's Surprise Move on Friday

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 12:14 AM PDT

Every other Wednesday or so, Chris Martenson and I get together for a podcast. Sometimes one of us or the other is out of town, and sometimes Chris has other guest speakers.

Because of scheduling difficulties, Chris and I got together today instead of Wednesday. I asked Chris to make today's podcast generally available.

For our take of Friday's BoJ surprise move, please play the audio on Chris' Peak Prosperity site: Off the Cuff: Japanese Central Bank Throws Granny Under the Bus.

The audio is about 25 minutes long. The podcasts are not scripted. Chris and I just talk "off the cuff" on events of the day or the week.

In case you missed my Friday commentary, please see Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Organizing for growth

 

Organizing for growth

Maybe it’s (finally) working. Maybe demand is up, opportunities keep presenting themselves and people want to work with you.

So why are you so stressed out? It might be because different organizational choices lead to different paths for growth.

Consider a house painter. His business has always been okay, but thanks to his skill and a local building boom, jobs keep showing up.

The traditional method: He lays out the money for paint, he does the work, he sends a bill, and soon, he gets paid.

The good news is that as a freelancer, he's super flexible and can withstand tough times. But in this environment, all sorts of trouble hits. First, there's a cash flow issue. New jobs mean more need for paint and materials, but he has to lay out his own cash to pay for it. Second, new jobs mean more work, but he's the best (and the cheapest) employee, so he ends up working way more hours. No cash, no time, no joy.

An alternative is for the painter to create a scalable system. He could require a down payment on every job, an amount calculated to cover all of his cash costs. Second, he could spend the time to build a pool of journeyman painters, a Rolodex of talent ready when he needs it. In this scenario, the painter becomes a foreman, not a painter any longer.

Or, consider one step beyond that, in which the painter hires several foremen, each responsible for his own Rolodex. Now, the painter is a CEO, a salesperson, the architect of a brand, an organization and its growth. But that still involves a lot of risk as he scales.

The last structure I'll point out is the idea that the painter could refine his system and instead of dealing with homeowners, he could find partners, and license them the system. The system might include his brand name, his sales approach, a computerized, data-driven direct marketing program and most of all, a rule book that lets people who don't have his iniative enter this business. By charging every partner who joins an upfront fee (this is how franchises work) as well as a share of their income, he can grow from state to state, building a nationwide painting behemoth.

There's no right answer. Not everyone should run a national painting franchise business. The key insight is to feel the pain that an organizational choice leads to and fix that instead of merely chasing demand and embracing each opportunity (no matter how juicy) as it comes along.

The key things to focus on, I think, are:

Cash flow

Demand enhancement

Increasing the ability to keep your promises by investing in a pipeline of talent

And most of all, reminding yourself why you're doing this in the first place.

       

 

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vineri, 31 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 01:30 PM PDT

Here's the question of the day: Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Some elections, especially for Senate are so close, the unfortunate answer is "yes" as the following video insight from Insight from the Libre Institute explains.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:38 AM PDT

"Whatever it Takes" Japanese Style

It's a world truly gone mad.

In a surprise move today, the Bank of Japan announced further quantitative easing, dominated by long-term Japanese government bonds. The BoJ also announced it  and would triple annual purchases of exchange traded funds and property investment trusts.

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda defied objections from four fellow board members, arguing that a tax-hit economy and a lower oil price have led to "a critical moment" in the country's bid to escape from deflation.

The Financial Times quotes Kuroda as follows: The extra action "shows our unwavering determination to end deflation. There was a risk that despite having made steady progress, we could face a delay in eradicating the public's deflation mindset. This is a pretty drastic step, so I think there will be a significant effect [on the economy]."

Stunning Market Reaction

  • Nikkei futures up lock limit (1160 points)
  • S&P 500 up 1.0% (new all-time high)
  • Yen plunges 2.5%
  • Dollar rises 0.9%
  • Gold sinks 2.75%
  • Oil down 1.1%

Nikkei Futures



S&P 500 Futures



Yen Futures



US Dollar Futures



Gold Futures



Oil Futures



One of my top two trade ideas worked today: Long the Nikkei hedged with a short-yen position. Gold certainly didn't. I still have faith central bank madness will eventually light a fire on my second key idea.

Buyer of Only Resort

Not only is Japan's population in decline, the remaining population is aging. Somehow, Japan believes its economy ought to grow anyway. In addition, Japan wants 2% inflation even though that is the last thing Japanese savers need.

Given that Japanese pension funds are now net sellers of Japanese government bonds, and given Japan's pledge to destroy the Yen to fight deflation, the buyer of only resort of Japan's government bonds is the Bank of Japan.

Currency Crisis Awaits

Japan's government debt is over 250% of GDP. Japan's debt is so high that an interest rate of somewhere between 2 and 3 percent will consume 100% of tax revenue.

Amusingly, the central bank wants 2% inflation and 0% bond rates. How's that going to work?

The answer is "It's not".

Today's message is clearly "get the hell out of the yen".

Somewhere down the line, a global currency crisis awaits. I am willing to hold gold indefinitely until that happens.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


21 Things You Need To Be Ready For When You Live With A Girl

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:14 AM PDT

Living with a girl is an adventure, so you need to be ready for it.





















The Cast Of "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Then And Now

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:01 AM PDT

A lot can change in 17 years.