miercuri, 20 februarie 2013

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


What Qualities Should You Seek In A Webmaster?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 12:05 PM PST

There are many reasons why you might be looking to hire a webmaster to take care of your website, be it related to the time you have to spend on maintaining it yourself, the performance of your site itself. Once you have your website up and running, choosing a webmaster...
Read more »

The Role Of Social Media In Business

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 12:00 PM PST

Social media is used by 94% of all businesses as part of their marketing strategy. The attention to social media marketing development and maintenance is equivalent to a full day's work by 60% marketers. Businesses who have reported increase in sales over a 3-year period as a result of social...
Read more »

Why Your Website Could Disappear From Google At Any Minute

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:54 AM PST

Google have positioned themselves at the tip of society’s fingertips when it comes to searching for information online. Naturally, if your website is the first thing people see when searching for information in your subject area you can revel in a lot of views and visits. However, on occasions, you...
Read more »

What Is SEO?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:46 AM PST

In layman terms, Search Engine Optimisation, or SEO, is the process of improving the visibility and page ranking of a website in search engines such as Google. It’s all very well having a website, whether it’s for yourself or for your business, but with so many websites available (literally millions),...
Read more »

Making Your Corporate Conference Social

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:34 AM PST

Most companies, large and small, will have a corporate conference at some point during the year. It may be a day or two long. Or, it may last four or five days. Large companies such as Wal-Mart will hire popular bands or singers to provide entertainment. Smaller companies may only...
Read more »

What is SEO Co-Citation?

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 11:12 AM PST

What is SEO Co-Citation? When you're looking for websites on which to guest blog and submit articles for SEO, it's hard to be focused on anything but getting that content published for link building purposes. And, to amplify your online footprint. When you get your content published, you probably do (and should)...
Read more »

What are the Most Common Features of Free Web Hosting

Posted: 20 Feb 2013 04:42 AM PST

In the internet world, you need to acquire web hosting services to make your website visible for the internet users. It is an imperative decision to find the free solution of web hosting and it is a challenge to select a reliable web host since there are many web hosting...
Read more »

Social Media Guidelines For Physicians

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 11:24 PM PST

Social media has opened more channels of communication between companies and consumers than ever before. For physicians, social media can allow them to connect with their patients, develop their business, and establish a strong online reputation. However, there should always be guidelines in place to ensure the professionalism and legality...
Read more »

How Local SEO Helps In Online Marketing

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 09:58 PM PST

It is always advisable to start a business locally. A local business developed in a local community gives a business the right opportunity to get the perfect experience needed to launch nationally and then globally. There are millions of different businesses available in the market, but most of the business...
Read more »

Mobilize Your SEO: Making the Most Out of the Mobile Search Opportunity

Mobilize Your SEO: Making the Most Out of the Mobile Search Opportunity


Mobilize Your SEO: Making the Most Out of the Mobile Search Opportunity

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 05:42 PM PST

Posted by aleyda

Last week, I had the opportunity to give a Mozinar on the different steps and activities involved in a Mobile SEO process, from the initial research, analysis, and decision making, to the development, optimization, and measurement. I outlined the following phases:

Mobile SEO LifeCycle

The Mozinar covers the different phases of the Mobile SEO process, along with the different aspects and criteria to consider to make the best decision according to your own online characteristics and capacity, from a business, audience, content, and technical perspective. If you didn't attend, you can watch the recorded Mozinar or take a look at the slides below.

Audience Q&A

As a supplement to the Mozinar, I tried to answer as many audience questions as possible. Enjoy!

1. Does ranking well on desktop SEO translate or help with ranking well on mobile SEO?

Yes, if the desktop site also takes the most important aspects that you need to prioritize in mobile search into consideration. For example, a site that's already featuring a responsive web design approach, not necessarily because of mobile reasons and without an "active" mobile SEO process.

Nonetheless, you might also have a situation where a highly authoritative desktop site doesn't feature the specific keywords that are used by its mobile search audience. For example, the site might end up not ranking so well and losing the opportunity to maximize its mobile search presence, traffic, and conversions.

2. How does one optimize mobile search keywords with multiple locations on a mobile site?

You will need to enable an internal mobile site architecture that specifically targets these type of keywords, with internal pages that would be the ones to be optimized to rank for them. 

3. Do you still need link building for a parallel mobile site?

For a parallel mobile site approach, Google specifies the following when describing the importance of rel=alternate/canonical attributes

"When you use different URLs to serve the same content in different formats, the annotation tells Google's algorithms that those two URLs have equivalent content and should be treated as one entity instead of two entities. If they are treated separately, both desktop and mobile URLs are shown in desktop search results, and their positions may be lower than they would otherwise be."

This means that you won't "need" to build links additionally to the specific mobile URLs since they will be considered as one entity along their desktop versions. Nonetheless, since you might also have mobile URLs that don't refer to desktop ones, you might also want to "promote" them to earn popularity by their own. 

4. Can a mobile emulator be used to see HTTP redirects?

You can use a web sniffer using the desired user agent to verify HTTP redirects.  

5. Why you shouldn't block CSS and JS in a Responsive Web Design Approach?

Google needs to crawl pages assets (CSS, Javascript, images) as specified here to be able to identify that a site is using responsive web design approach.  

6. If I've implemented redirects to keep mobile users out of my desktop-ready site, but then I offer mobile users a link to view my full site, how can I keep them from being redirected back to the mobile version?

You need to use cookies when you link to the alternative URL version. For example, link to your desktop version from a mobile URL by adding a cookie informing that the desktop is the preferred version for that user. 

7. Common practices with responsive web design involve hiding page elements or changing them depending on screen resolution using CSS/JS. What is the prevailing consensus on doing that with respect to SEO? 

As Google explains here, they're able to detect if a responsive web design approach is followed by a site and the reason behind hiding some elements from users. Responsive web design is, in fact, Google's recommended configuration for smartphone-optimized websites.  

8. How does Google feel about serving different content based on user agent? 

As long as you correctly detect user agents and serve the same content to both devices and Googlebot (for example, the same content to both mobile users and Googlebot mobile), it shouldn't be a problem as it's specified by Google here and here. The issue comes when you don't correctly detect and might end up doing cloaking, showing different content to users and search bots.  

9. Is there a character limit to mobile titles? 

The limit before titles are truncated in mobile search results are around 45 characters. Nonetheless, it's best to verify directly how your own specific website titles are shown, as described from slides 50 to 53 in the presentation. 

10. Is it necessary to use "m" subdomain for a mobile site? What are advantages of using "m"?

Is not "necessary," but from my experience, it is the "cleanest" approach from a URL structure perspective. It keeps it short, user-friendly, and easier to refer to desktop URLs versions, and you can easily track the specific mobile site activity by filtering the subdomain traffic. This can be trickier with an /m/ subdirectory, besides the fact that you're adding an unnecessary extra level of depth to the URL.   

11. How do you incorporate your app into your SEO mobile strategy? When someone arrives to your landing page, should you pop up to use app instead?

It's not recommended to implement "App Interstitials" as John Mueller explains here, since you might likely also be blocking Googlebot. A relevant and also non-intrusive approach is to "suggest" users to download or open their app, as Airbnb and Yelp do: 

Mobile App Links

12. What is the best tool to use for using mobile searches on desktop for reviewing and testing? 

For Firefox, I recommend the User Agent Switcher add-on, and the Ultimate User Agent Switcher extension for Chrome. 

13. If your mobile site use a separate URL versions do you need to have a separate Google Analytics tracking code installed on the mobile version?

You can still using your present Google Analytics code but configure it to show the full hostname (as described in slides 159 and 160) and create a specific profile for the Mobile subdomain to follow-up more easily.  

As a guide to the presentation, I've outlined a list of all the audience questions I received, organized by topic. Hopefully this allows you to get the most out of the Mozinar possible, and answers your questions about the mobile SEO process!

A Mobile Search Industry Overview  

  1. Why is mobile search Important? Slides 2-3
  2. How Google targets mobile search? Slides 4-5 
  3. Why is mobile optimization needed? Slides 6-8
  4. Which are the Google recommendations to develop mobile optimized websites? Slides 9-10
  5. Why you need mobile SEO recommendations? Slide 11

Mobile Research and Analysis 

  1. What's your current mobile traffic and conversions volume and trend? Slides 20-22
  2. What's the volume and trend of your mobile traffic and conversions compared to your mobile organic, desktop, and desktop organic traffic and conversions? Slide 23
  3. Which mobile devices are used by your visitors? Slides 24-25
  4. What's the volume and trend of the mobile devices used by your mobile visitors compared to your mobile organic, desktop, and desktop organic visitors? Slide 26
  5. Which are the keywords and pages used by your organic mobile visitors? Slides 27-28 
  6. How do your mobile keywords and pages perform compared to those used by your organic desktop visitors? Slide 29
  7. How is your site displayed in mobile devices? Slides 31-34
  8. Which are the queries and pages giving mobile search visibility to your present site? Slides 36-39 
  9. How do your mobile search queries and pages perform compared to your desktop ones? Slide 40
  10. Is Google having issues to crawl your site for mobile? Slides 41-42
  11. How does Googlebot mobile fetch your pages? Slides 43-44
  12. How does Googlebot mobile crawls your site? Slides 45-49
  13. How are your pages shown in mobile and tablet search results? Slides 50-52
  14. How do your pages titles, descriptions, URLs, and competitors in mobile and tablet search results, compared to your pages in desktop search results? Slide 53
  15. What are the authority and links of your mobile ranking pages? Slides 54-56
  16. How are your domain and page authority and links compared to your mobile ranking competitors? Slides 57-61
  17. Which are volumes and trends of the keywords used by your organic mobile search audience? Slides 65-68
  18. What's the mobile organic search volume potential of the keywords used by your present mobile visitors? Slide 69
  19. What's the mobile organic search volume potential for your site? Slides 71-74

Develop your Mobile Web 

  1. Which are the different mobile architecture alternatives? Slide 78
  2. Which is the most suitable mobile architecture in your situation? Slides 79-80

General Mobile SEO Recommendations

  1. How can you optimize your mobile website speed? Slides 83-85
  2. Why is speed important for your mobile site? Slide 86
  3. Which are the Google recommendations for mobile speed optimization? Slides 87-88
  4. How should you optimize your mobile content? Slides 89-90
  5. Which are the structural elements of your Mobile site you need to optimize? Slides 91-93
  6. Which elements should I validate in the mobile search results? Slide 94
  7. How can you increase your mobile search visibility with rich snippets? Slides 95-96
  8. How can you increase your mobile search visibility if you're a local business? Slides 97-98
  9. Which aspects you need to take into consideration to optimize your mobile Interface? Slides 99-100

Mobile SEO with Responsive Web Design  

  1. What's responsive web design? Slides 103-105
  2. How to verify if a site is responsive? Slide 106
  3. How Google recommends responsive web design for smartphone optimized sites? Slide 108
  4. Which are the recommendations that Google gives for responsive web design? Slides 109-110
  5. Which are the responsive web design pros and cons towards mobile SEO? Slide 111 
  6. In which situation responsive web design is recommended for your mobile site? Slide 112
  7. How can you more easily implement responsive web design? Slides 113-116
  8. Which elements you should not block so Google can identify a web is responsive? Slide 118
  9. How Google recommends to use Javascript for responsive web design? Slides 119-120
  10. Why is speed and visualization additionally important for responsive mobile sites? Slides 121-122
  11. Which websites are using responsive web design for a mobile approach? Slides 123-124

Mobile SEO with Dynamic Serving

  1. What's dynamic serving? Slides 127-129
  2. How to verify if a site is dynamically serving its content? Slides 129-130
  3. Which are the dynamic serving pros and cons towards mobile SEO? Slide 131
  4. In which situation responsive dynamic serving is recommended for your mobile site? Slide 132
  5. How should you do user agent detection for dynamic serving? Slides 133-134
  6. How do you avoid doing cloaking in a dynamic serving environment? Slides 135-136
  7. Which websites are using dynamic serving for a mobile approach? Slides 137-138

Mobile SEO with Parallel Mobile Sites

  1. What's a parallel mobile site? Slides 141-143
  2. How to verify if a site is effectively implementing a parallel mobile approach? Slides 144-146
  3. Which are the parallel mobile sites pros and cons towards mobile SEO? Slide 147
  4. In which situation parallel mobile sites are recommended? Slide 148
  5. How should you structure the URLs of your parallel mobile site? Slides 149-151
  6. How do you implement redirects in a parallel mobile site? Slides 152-153
  7. Which annotations should you include to refer a parallel mobile pages to their desktop version and vice versa? Slides 154-155
  8. Which annotations should you include in your desktop sitemap to refer to its parallel mobile version? Slides 156-157 
  9. How do you allow your users to browse between the mobile and desktop versions? Slide 158
  10. How do you effectively track the analytics activity of your parallel mobile site? Slides 159-160
  11. Which websites are using a parallel mobile site? Slides 161-162

Measure and Evolve Your Mobile SEO Process

  1. How can you reclaim your lost iOS 6 Safari search traffic mobile ? Slides 165-166 
  2. Which metrics should you follow up from your mobile SEO traffic? Slide 167
  3. How to identify if your mobile SEO process is successful? Slide 168
  4. When is the time to go for a mobile app? Slides 169-174

If you're interested in following up with more mobile SEO news, you can also follow MobileMoxie in Twitter, read Bryson Meunier's Mobile column in Search Engine Land, and join the Google+ Mobile SEO community

Is there any other mobile SEO related question that's not targeted here? Let me know in the comments! 


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Photo of the Day: Meeting with Our First Responders

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
 

Photo of the Day: Meeting with Our First Responders

President Barack Obama studies a challenge coin presented to him by an emergency responder during a greet in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building South Court Auditorium Ante Room before remarks urging action to avoid the automatic budget cuts scheduled if Congress fails to find a path forward on balanced deficit reduction, Feb. 19, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama studies a challenge coin presented to him by an emergency responder during a greet in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building South Court Auditorium Ante Room before remarks urging action to avoid the automatic budget cuts scheduled if Congress fails to find a path forward on balanced deficit reduction, Feb. 19, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Setting the Record Straight About the Sequester
Learn more about the President's plan to avoid the sequester and reduce the deficit in a balanced way by cutting spending, reforming entitlements and closing tax loopholes for the wealthiest and big corporations.

Photo Gallery: Behind the Scenes in January 2013
The White House Photo Office shares a set of behind the scenes photos from January 2013.

President Obama: Automatic Budget Cuts Will Hurt Economy, Slow Recovery, and Put People Out of Work
President Obama urges Congress to stop a series of severe and automatic budget cuts set to take effect in just nine days that will hurt our economic growth, add hundreds of thousands of Americans to the unemployment rolls, and threaten military readiness.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:30 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:30 PM: The President and the Vice President meet for lunch

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:30 PM: Vice President Biden hosts Medal of Valor Ceremony WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:20 PM: The President is interviewed by regional television outlets

4:00 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of State Kerry

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

Sign up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected


This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

Seth's Blog : Should you work for free?

 

Should you work for free?

That depends on what you mean by "work" and by "free."

Work is what you do as a professional, when you make a promise that involves rigor and labor (physical and emotional) and risk. Work is showing up at the appointed time, whether or not you feel like it. Work is creating value on demand, and work (for the artist) means putting all of it (or most of it) on the line.

So it's not work when you indulge your hobby and paint an oil landscape, but it's work when you agree to paint someone's house by next week. And it's not work when you cook dinner for friends, but it's work when you're a sous chef on the line on Saturday night.

And free?

Well, you're certainly not working for free if you get some cash at the end of the night. But what about a nine-minute segment on 60 Minutes about your new project, or a long interview with Krista Tippet on her radio show? Should you get paid for that?

Clearly not. Not if you think you'll be able to turn that platform into positive change, into increased trust, into something that moves you forward.

[As more of us work with abundant ideas, not scarce resources, the question comes up more often. I'm not delving at all into the idea of donating your work to a cause you believe in. That's not a selfish calculation, it's a generous one, and I'm all for it, but do it for that reason. Because paying your work forward is the right thing to do.]

Harlan Ellison is gifted, inspired and entertaining, particularly in this video. But his profane refusal to work for free confuses work-for-money with work-for-actually-valuable-attention. (In his case, he's right, the attention on the DVD had no real value to him. Yes, they could pay for that--but see the point about positive externalities, below.)

Of course, many people who would have you work for free value attention far differently than you or I might. No, writing a guest blog post for a little blog is probably not valuable enough to you. No, designing a logo for the zoo for free is probably not valuable either. And the argument that it is valuable (it's good for your portfolio!) is inevitably selfish and irrational. The lions get their food, the vets get paid and even the guy selling peanuts doesn't do it for free...

On the other hand, for a long time it made perfect sense for opinion leaders without big blog followings to write (for 'free') for the Huffington Post. And there's still a line of people eager to write for the New York Times op ed page, not for the money. And if Oprah calls, sure, answer her, even though her show isn't what it used to be.

The more generous you are with your ideas, and the more they spread, the more likely it is your perceived value goes up.

There are double standards all over the place here. There was a national kerfuffle (from people who should be doing something more productive) about Amanda Palmer giving musicians a chance to practice their hobby or voluntarily gain exposure, but no one complains about all the showcases and music festivals that don't pay musicians a penny. There's a law against having interns do work that ought to be paid for, but college football players give up their health and their time to participate for free in a billion-dollar industry...

Positive externalities are one of the magical building blocks of the web. When the work you do creates useful side effects (like the smell wafting from the bakery down the street), it's not only selfish to prevent others from partaking, it's actually stupid. The infrastructure we all depend on only works because we've made it easier than ever for ideas to spread and be shared. That's different, though, from bespoke work and live work and risky work on demand.

The challenge of this calculus is that it keeps changing--the landscape changes and so does your work. When I started my professional speaking career fifteen years ago, not only did I speak for free, my company even paid money to sponsor events so I could speak for free. When TED offered me a chance to speak for free, years later, I took it, because, in fact, the quality of the audience, the attention to detail and the chance to make an impact all made it worth it. But when SXSW, a corporation that makes millions of dollars a year, offers me a chance to be a speaker, pay my own way and hope to get some attention from their very overloaded audience, it's easier for me to say, "free makes no sense here."

Some of the factors to consider:

  • Do they pay other people who do this work? Do their competitors?
  • Am I learning enough from this interaction to call this part of my education?
  • Is this public work with my name on it, or am I just saving them cash to do a job they should pay for?
  • If I get paid, is it more likely the organization will pay closer attention, promote it better and treat it more seriously?
  • Do I care about their mission? Can they afford to do this professionally?
  • Will I get noticed by the right people, people who will help me spread the word to the point where I can get hired to do this professionally?
  • What's the risk to me, my internal monologue and my reputation if I do this work?

If you're an up-and-coming band building an audience, then yes, free, free, free. It's always worth it for you to gig, because you get at least as much out of the gig as the organizer and the audience do. But when you've upped and come, then no, it's not clear you ought to bring your light and your soul and your reputation along just because some promoter asked you to.

Here's the heart of it: if you're busy doing free work because it's a good way to hide from the difficult job of getting paid for your work, stop. When you confuse busy for productive, you're sabotaging your ability to do important work in the future. On the other hand, if you're turning down free gigs because the exposure frightens you, the same is true... you're ducking behind the need to get paid as a way to hide your art.

[Thanks to Steve for the push. And to Jessica for the flow chart. Both of which they did for free. Because it wasn't really work and it wasn't really free.]


More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

marți, 19 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Incredible Letter from CEO of Titan to France Minister of Industrial Renewal, Blasting French Unions and USA: "How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 04:45 PM PST

I like it when people speak their minds. I like it even more when they are correct and they blast government officials at the highest levels. And I especially like it when the person blasting government is a prominent person.

Thus I am pleased to report an incredible letter from the CEO of Titan to Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Industrial Renewal of France, criticizing not only French unions but unions in the USA.

Via Google translate from Les Echos, please consider Incredible Email From the CEO of Titan to Montebourg.

"Les Echos" received a copy of the letter which the President of the American Titan told the Minister of Industrial Renewal why he threw in the towel on purchasing the Goodyear plant Amiens Nord, in a very direct style.

"How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"

Here are some excerpts I transcribed from an image of the letter posted on Les Echos.
Dear Mr. Montebourg:

Goodyear tried for over four years to save part of the Amiens jobs that are some of the highest paid, but the French unions and French government did nothing but talk.

I have visited the factory a couple of times. The French workforce gets paid high wages but works only three hours. They get one hour for breaks and lunch, talk for three, and work for three. I told this to the French union workers to their faces. They told me that's the French way!

The Chinese are shipping tires into France - really all over Europe - and yet you do nothing. In five years, Michelin won't be able to produce tire in France. France will lose its industrial business because government is more government.

Sir, your letter states you want Titan to start a discussion. How stupid do you think we are? Titan is the one with money and talent to produce tires. What does the crazy union have? It has the French government. The French farmer wants cheap tire. He does not care if the tires are from China or India and governments are subsidizing them. Your government doesn't care either. "We're French!"

The US government is not much better than the French. Titan had to pay millions to Washington lawyers to sue the Chinese tire companies because of their subsidizing. Titan won. The government collects the duties. We don't get the duties, the government does.

Titan is going to buy a Chinese tire company or an Indian one, pay less than one Euro per hour and ship all the tires France needs. You can keep the so-called workers. Titan has no interest in the Amien North factory.

Best regards,
Maurice M. Taylor, Jr.
Chairman and CEO
Morry "the Griz" Taylor

A quick internet search led me to Maurice Taylor
Taylor was nicknamed "The Grizz" by Wall Street analysts for his tough negotiating style. Taylor has transformed Titan from a small wheel manufacturing business to a global producer of off-highway wheel and tire systems. Taylor has been in the wheel manufacturing business for over 30 years, and has worked with Titan in various sales, engineering and management positions. He attended Michigan Tech. Taylor served as president and CEO of the company from 1990 to 2005, when he became chairman and CEO.

In 1996, Taylor ran as a Republican candidate for President of the United States, campaigning to bring sound fiscal management and business know-how to Washington.
Further Reading

For further reading, please consider economically insane proposal by French president Francois Hollande "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It"

Given that any clear-thinking person should quickly realize that if companies cannot fire workers they will be extremely reluctant to hire them in the first place, it should be no surprise to discover French Unemployment Highest in 14 Years (And It's Going to Get Much Worse).

In France, Government spending amounts to 55% of total domestic output. For discussion, please see Hollande's Honeymoon is Over; 54% of Voters Unhappy; Unions Promise "War" in September.

Please note that the French Labour Minister says France Totally Bankrupt

Finally, please consider Illusions of Stabilization.

I Expect things in France to get worse at an accelerated pace.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

About That Surprise California Budget "Surplus": There is No Surprise and No Surplus Either

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 11:50 AM PST

Last month writers were all aglow on the state of finances in California. For example ...


Accounting Anomaly

Today we learn the surprise $5-billion bump in revenue in January is likely an accounting anomaly as a result of tax changes.
The surge of revenue that showed up unexpectedly in state coffers last month may well be offset by a revenue dip in coming months, according to Gov. Jerry Brown's administration. The surprise money has been the source of much speculation in the Capitol. Unanticipated tax receipts filled state coffers with more than $5 billion beyond initial projections for January — more tax dollars than are allocated to the entire state university system in a year.

The revenue bump was historic. But the question for budget experts was whether lawmakers could begin allocating the windfall toward government programs and tax breaks — or whether the money amounted to an accounting anomaly.

Brown's budget office now advises in an official cash report that it is probably the latter. The report says the extra money was "likely the result of major tax law changes at the federal and state level having a significant impact in the timing of revenue receipts."

That is: Taxpayers were paying a share of their bill early, getting income off their books in the hope of limiting exposure to the tax hikes that recently kicked in.
Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

There is no surprise. Are you surprised by the non-surprise? I am not.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 09:49 AM PST

Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France has some very interesting thoughts on the upcoming elections in Italy. "AC" writes ...
Hi Mish,

Italian elections will take place this weekend.

A hung Parliament is likely. This is due to the highly fractionated political landscape in conjunction with electoral law that favors such an outcome.

In the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house of Italy's parliament) voting rules give extra seats to the largest party by popular vote. Senate seats (the upper house) are allocated on a regional basis.

Chamber of Deputies Analysis

  • The Center-Left coalition (Bersani) is losing steam but will likely end up with the highest percentage of votes.
  • The Center-Right (Berlusconi) is recovering strongly and cannot be entirely discounted.
  • Monti's center coalition will likely score poorly, between at 10 and 13%.
  • Rivoluzione Civile (far left) will likely score between 4 and 6%, and may be unable to reach the Chamber access threshold (4%).
  • Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) is again on the rise. Movimento 5 Stelle may even reach 20% and become the second largest party in the country.
  • The first wild card is a high and rising number of undecided voters.
  • A second wildcard factor is the recent rise of "Fare per Fermare il Declino" (literally "Act to Stop the Decline", acronym FiD), a primarily Libertarian party founded less than a year ago.


Grillo's public meetings are getting "oceanic", he is attracting many people disappointed with this political class with a very populist program.

In the campaign you can hear some extremely populist proposals, most of them from Grillo, Berlusconi, and Rivoluzione Civile.

Populist Proposals

  • Give back Real Estate tax collected in 2012 (Berlusconi)
  • Forbid foreclosure of the main house of a person or a family in case of delinquency (Grillo and Berlusconi). Imagine the effect on mortgage issuance!
  • Give a minimum guaranteed survival wage from the government to all those are unemployed (Grillo, Rivoluzione Civile).
  • Even Monti is promising to cut taxes, the same taxes he decreed (and that center-left and center right approved as well).

Assuming the Center-Left hangs on to win the Chamber, the outcome in the Senate is crucial as to whether or not there is a hung Parliament. The regions are, Lombardy, Veneto, Lazio, Sicily, Campania. By far the most important is Lombardy, with the highest number of senators.

In regards to the Senate outcome, it's important to look at a very recent rise of  FiD, "Fare per Fermare il Declino".

FiD was founded by a liberal/libertarian economic journalist (Oscar Giannino) and free-market oriented economists, some of them teaching in the US.

FiD has a program of 10 main points. They have a "pro-market" agenda, not a "pro-business" agenda. The party is extremely disappointed with the policies of Berlusconi and Monti. 

They want to stay on the euro, deeply cut public spending, and deeply cut taxes as well. They also want to reduce public debt via sales of public assets, cut highest pensions, and reform the job market.

Their proposals are the most libertarian ever seen in Italy and extremely aggressive by Italian standards.

The party has very little support from media and no "brand awareness" yet they seem to be in a fast upward trend in social media. Some FiD messages and campaigns are going viral, perhaps a sign that something is brewing.

FiD may be able to overcome the access threshold for Chamber at national level and for Senate as well in some key regions. That would be an amazing result. It would probably be the first time that in a "Club Med" country the crisis makes stronger a libertarian party instead of far right or far left.

Another key point is that a significant turnout for FiD could be at the expense of Berlusconi or Monti, especially in the 2 key regions, Lombardy and Veneto. Should that happen, it could help the center-left get the relative majority it needs to avoid a hung Parliament.

Best regards,

AC
Addendum: Turmoil in FiD

I received the above email a couple days ago. This morning "AC" penned me regarding turmoil in the Fermare il Declino camp that is likely to sink the party. She writes ...
Hi Mish

The news today is FiD is in trouble because Zingales (one of the party founders) left after discovering that the party President (Giannino) discussed having a degree from the US that he does not really have. Giannino is considering stepping down to not undermine the credibility of the party. This will likely have a strong effect on the share they get and therefore on their indirect effect on the elections.

The story is rather strange. Apparently the degree was mentioned on a website, not even posted by Giannino, yet this seems enough to sink FiD. Sadly many politicians in Italy intentionally lie and on much more serious things, but this seems OK with the voters.

Best regards,

AC
It's safe to add this revision to the number of election wildcards in Italy.

Yet, if AC's previous analysis is correct, it will strengthen the odds of a hung parliament as disgruntled voters may sit out or choose between Movimento 5 Stelle or Berlusconi's Center-Right party.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Opting Out of Obamacare (the Unaffordable Health Care Act); Not Even Labor Unions Want It

Posted: 19 Feb 2013 12:45 AM PST

Obamacare, officially known as the "Affordable Care Act", is quickly proving to be so unaffordable that neither businesses nor labor unions want anything to do with it.

In increasing numbers, US business complain about 'Obamacare' costs (but they are not the only ones).
David Dillon, chief executive of the Kroger supermarket chain, told the Financial Times that some companies might opt to pay a government-mandated penalty for not providing insurance because it was cheaper than the cost of coverage.

Nigel Travis, head of Dunkin' Brands, said his doughnut chain was lobbying to change the definition of "full-time" employees eligible for coverage from those working at least 30 hours a week to 40 hours a week.

Some restaurants, including Wendy's and Taco Bell franchises, have explored slashing worker hours so fewer employees qualify for health insurance, arguing that they cannot afford the additional healthcare costs. Other businesses are deliberately keeping headcounts below 50.

The penalty for not providing coverage is $2,000 per worker. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-partisan policy group, the average annual cost to employers of insurance is $4,664 for a single worker and $11,429 for a family.

Companies with more than 50 workers have to pay a penalty if they do not provide full-time employees with health insurance. The employees can instead buy private coverage subsidised by the government on new insurance exchanges.
Not Even Labor Unions Want It

If it's costly for businesses, labor unions must like it. Right? Wrong.

The Washington Time reports Labor unions that pushed Obamacare through want out
Unions, or rather the professional class of union leaders, were vehement supporters of Obamacare's federal takeover of health care. Now that they've had a chance to actually read the 2,801-page bill and "find out what is in it," they are upset and want out.

Major unions like the AFL-CIO and the Teamsters are now demanding that they be allowed to stay on their current health care plans and receive government subsidies to cover the increased costs some of Obamacare's provisions will impose on lower-income workers. They want to eat their government cake and have it too. What else is new? Who would foot the bill? You guessed it: We, the taxpayers.

The rank hypocrisy of Obamacare-backing unions began almost immediately after the passage of the bill three years ago, with hundreds of thousands of union workers being exempted from the law through waivers from the Obama administration.

In total, more than 1,200 entities were granted waivers from President Obama's signature legislation, the vast majority of them labor unions. In fact, unions representing 543,812 workers received waivers, while only 69,813 employees at private firms, many of them small businesses, managed to secure a waiver.

The same unions that fought tooth and nail to impose this program on all Americans used million-dollar lobbyists to make sure they didn't have to play by the same rules as the rest of us.

Readers will recall Mr. Obama's constant mantra: "If you like your health care, you can keep it." Not so. According to the Congressional Budget Office, more than 7 million Americans will lose their employer-based insurance thanks to Obamacare. Unintended consequences always come back to haunt us, and try though they might, government actors are incapable of overturning economic law by mere decree.
Job Market Distortions

I have commented on the labor market distortions of Obamacare many times.

Here is a brief recap: Since the "Unaffordable Care Act" defines full-time employment at 30 hours, many businesses are cutting back the number of hours employees can work to 25. In turn, this led to more hiring, all part-time jobs of course. Some medium-sized businesses reduced employment to under 50 workers and other businesses turned to consultants to get around the act.

Now businesses are investigating opting out of the plan even for full-time employees. Other than social pressures and disgruntled employees, why not?

Arguably, every business should opt out and pay the penalty. Businesses could even give a nice subsidy to its employees and come out ahead. Let voters see for themselves just how "affordable" Obamacare is.

As a primary benefit, if enough businesses do opt out, there will be massive voter support to scrap or at least overhaul the damn program.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
Click on Image to Learn More