luni, 30 martie 2015

Music SEO - 7 Lessons in Brand Optimization for 2015 - Moz Blog


Music SEO - 7 Lessons in Brand Optimization for 2015

Posted on: Monday 30 March 2015 — 02:13

Posted by evolvingSEO

Bands, music, and SEO - A different paradigm

For B2B or ecommerce, people often discover your brand with commercial queries like "dining room lamps" or an informational search like "how to fix a dishwasher". 

Then they look around your site, your social profiles, get retargeted—before ever making a purchase—but in many cases that journey started with an non-branded organic search. Search is certainly not the only discovery channel. But important enough that investment in non-branded keywords is essential.

A (very simplified) illustration of this discovery path might look something like this:

content discovery path b2b ecommerce

The above is NOT the case for musicians and bands though. When's the last time you discovered a band with a search engine? Probably never.

For bands and musicians, the discovery path is  flipped aroundTHIS is probably more realistic:

discovery path for bands

The search engine is  more about reducing friction on the path to becoming a die-hard fan. I don't think many people are discovering their new favorite band like this:

searching for bands on google

But you HAVE probably tried to learn more about bands and musicians after the initial discovery with searches like this:

current fan search

(No, I am not a Lumineers fan—just so there's no confusion ;) )

I don't think many musicians, bands, record labels or managers are looking at this aspect of search. Sure, you can hope that users and Google "just figure it out." Or you can be proactive and create the best fan experience possible.


SEO for bands = The branded keyword experience

So the REAL opportunity in keywords for bands and musicians is the fan experience here:

google autosuggest band search terms

It's their "branded" terms (or what I like to call "PropWords"—proprietary keywords):

  • band name
  • musician names
  • album names
  • song names
  • lyrics
  • performance dates
  • interviews
  • etc...

For example, there's a TON of volume around Lupe Fiasco's branded terms—and this is only the tip of the iceberg:

branded search terms lupe fiasco

Just because no one's discovering Lupe Fiasco in organic search, doesn't mean there's no opportunity. It's just not in the normal places you'd look for B2B or eCommerce opportunity.

So that's the lens through which the rest of this post should be seen through. SEO for bands is primarily about the fan experience searching their branded terms


Search result opportunities for bands

1. Event listings

1.1 Optimize your own site for general tour searches

As a band, it's important to keep fans and potential fans in your ecosystem. You should keep fans on your properties (website, social etc) as much as possible—so as not to give up extra traffic to third party sites. Being visible for your own event searches is a critical way to keep them there. 

Let's use on of my new favorite bands,  Sylvan Esso. Here's an example of what Google typically shows for a tour search—for the query "sylvan esso tour dates":

search results sylvan esso

I imagine for this query, fans are trying to get a list of all tour dates. So what is Google doing now? They are providing the list front and center

You notice that Sylvan Esso only has one result—everything else goes to a third party site. This is already a lost opportunity to drive more fans to their site. 

They could optimize for clicks by aligning the likely user intent with their appearance in the SERP. Using the SEO Mofo SERP tool, I came up with:

sylvan esso tour dates search results

This listing may perform better because:

  • It aligns with most likely user intent (browse all dates/location & purchase)
  • The URL is more informative
  • It promises something exclusive (as long as they deliver—maybe with a group discount, a meet and greet etc).

This is the start to funneling fans through your website instead of a third party. 

1.2 Create pages for individual shows (with caution)

Some fans may opt to click a tour date Google has provided. What does Google do next?

tour dates serp

Google then returns a page like this—with a TON of stuff:

band serp

This SERP is packed! It includes:

  • A date carousel
  • A large AdWords ad
  • A map card 
  • Knowledge Graph card
  • Top result has 4 site-links
  • 7 more normal organic results, some with date snippets and extra links

Here's the kicker. There's only one tiny little link to sylvanesso.com—in the map card. And it goes to their homepage. They have a pretty poor shot at driving users to their website here.

Let's look at a result for a specific Dave Matthews Band tour date:

dave matthews serp

They're doing it a little better. Few observations with this one:

  • Their link in the map goes to their tour page
  • The #1 organic listing goes to their website—because they have a specific page for that exact show.
  • The amount of stuff in this SERP is still immense. The first organic result is way below the fold.
  • The "with caution" part is that—you don't want to just create individual pages for every show, without trying to add something of value to them—like information about the venue, past show pictures from that venue, etc. These pages can get quite "thin" and this isn't a good thing either.

1.3 Tag your site to get official ticket links

Finally, the biggest change in Google is the addition of official ticketing agents. To use one of their examples, let's look at  Google's example of "ariana grande tour" (and no, definitely not a secret Ariana Grande fan—although some of the production is decent):

Not only do the tour dates show up at the top, but check out this preferred ticketing link showing prominently in the Map Card:

official ticket agent in band serp

Google  first announced this capability about a year ago. And they have recently expanded this for comedians and concert venues as well. Here is Google's official developer documentation on event markup for performers: https://developers.google.com/structured-data/events/performers I want to note, they are giving preferential treatment to official artist websites:

event markup for performer sites

You have three options to specify event info:

  1. HTML—code it directly into your page
  2. Plugins or Widgets
  3. New "Delegation" Markup—indicate Google to source it from another webpage

2. Make an app (or several) and index them

For those not aware, App Indexing is getting pretty real. I think this is a major opportunity for bands and musicians. Let's look at mobile search volume for a few albums that have come out recently:

mobile search volume for recent albums

According to my small sample, at least 44% of album name searches are on a mobile device (not even including tablets). Recent claims are that Android has  almost 50% of the smartphone market share. For Alicia Keys, that would mean about 18,500 searches a month for "girl on fire" on an Android.

Are you seeing the opportunity? No? Well, Bjork did:

bjork app

She had an app developed just for her new album, Biophillia. Now, Android users searching Google for this album will be able to purchase and experience the "multimedia exploration" in this app.

If I was a label, I'd be experimenting with making apps for all albums by artists—filling them with an exclusive experience—and seeing what happens.

Google put together their  4-steps to appiness—and easy to follow guide to get your Android app indexed in Google search.

3. Get a Knowledge Graph result

I know we've look at musicians who have already reached a threshold of popularity. They are likely to have a Knowledge Graph result already.

But what if you're an up and coming musician? You may not have a Knowledge Graph result—but perhaps with a little nudge you can get one. For example, a friend of mine (and old bandmate) Lost Midas is now a solo electrofusion producer and songwriter. He is signed to an independent label and even just performed at SXSW—but unfortunately Google does not show a Knowledge Graph result:

missing knowledge graph in serp

What could someone like him do to get in the Knowledge Graph?

One thing I found interesting was Google's suggestions for how performers specifically can get in the Knowledge Graph. It's buried at the bottom of the event listings page:

3.1 Get listed in Wikipedia

This is easier said than done. Be sure to read their inclusion criteria for music.

If you feel the band or musician is notable enough to get into Wikipedia, you can then  start the process here. That is the official page to add an article request for bands and musicians. Please note, Wikipedia does not want you to list yourself. 

As Google states above— be sure the official homepage is recorded correctly. I take this to mean—list the exact ("canonical") version of your homepage URL. The one you would verify in Webmaster Tools.

You may also find this article on how someone claimed to sneak through Wiki's notability test interesting (although I can't officially say how good that method is).

3.2 Get listed in MusicBrainz

The other site Google recommends getting listed in is  MusicBrainz.org. I don't have much experience with this site, but you can go here to learn about making contributions.

musicbrainz

3.3 Upload audio to Archive.org

Note, this is just my hunch. But if Google is using Wikipedia and MusicBrainz to inform their Knowledge Graph results—perhaps they use Archive.org. Why not? It's one of the most authoritative sources on the web. 

With Archive.org you can upload entire concerts to their site:

archive.org

3.4 Create and verify a Google Plus page

Right, I know. "No one uses Google Plus." "Google Plus is dying." Perhaps there are elements of truth there. But I'd be surprised if having a Google Plus page verified with your website doesn't somehow impact Knowledge Graph listings.

My friend does not have a Google Plus listing currently:

searching for band's google plus page

For those needing to create and verify a Google Plus page:

  1. Go here and choose "Brand" to create a page. (Note, you are not creating a personal page. This is a mistake I see many organizations making).
  2. And then link your website to your brand page by following those instructions.

4. Customize your Knowledge Graph

Once you have a Knowledge Graph listing—that's just the beginning! Google recently added ways to control what appears there.

4.1 Specify your logo

For bands (and all organizations really) branding is an essential element of success. Google now gives you the opportunity to directly control the logo users see in your Knowledge Graph result:

customizing a band's knowledge graph result

As you can see above, the jazz group The Bad Plus has a random picture from an article showing—when perhaps there is a better photo they would prefer. This may be especially important from a consistency of branding standpoint.

4.2 Specify your social profiles

In addition, you can also directly control what social media links show in the knowledge graph. As I've mentioned, getting users to follow you on social is a key goal for bands in terms of audience development. Your audience is everything. And for bands, most search activity is going to come from their brand name. Why not make it easier for them to discover your social profiles?

For example, the amazing "Livetronica" Band (live electronica music) The New Deal could get all of their social links to show in their Knowledge Box:

missing social profiles in knowledge graph

As you can see they are missing a huge opportunity to get more fans to their Instagram, Twitter and Soundcloud profiles. There's at least 1,700 searches a month for "the new deal music" and "the new deal band".

5. Have a crawlable and indexable site

For some reason, I have noticed sites in the music industry tend to be pretty inferior. This could be due to labels using poor frameworks, or the band/artist needing to just get a website up the quickest, cheapest and easiest way possible. This can cause some issues though.

Let's check out my friend's site again. He's currently on the Flavors.me platform. It looks like there's several "pages" to the user, but to Google his website is just all one page:

cached band page

As mentioned, this is a common yet often overlooked issue with music websites I see. In fact, despite Bjork getting it right by having an app—her website has the same issue:

cached webpage for bjork

Her website (which actually does looks like an impressive creative endeavor) is built with hashes # in the URLs. Which makes the individual pages uncrawlable.

This shows up as an issue if I try to find her mailing list in Google:

serp for uncrawlable band page

The first result goes to her record label's page. That's fine right? Well, not really because she has her own mailing list:

page visible to searcher not search engine

Because of how the website is built though, that page is basically invisible to Google—and users can not easily find it from a search.

The absence of Bjork's mailing list in search results is a critical oversight. For an artist, your mailing list is one of your strongest assets.

5. Leverage your own YouTube channel

As it's often said, YouTube is the second largest search engine. And there's no doubt music queries make up a huge percentage of their overall search volume.

5.1 Create a YouTube channel

I'm sad to have to say this, but many bands don't seem to even have a YouTube page of their own. Again, they are missing a massive opportunity to funnel fans searching for their content to their YouTube account—where they can grow subscribers, promote music and cross-promote other channels.

For example, that band The New Deal does not have their own YouTube channel:

branded youtube channel

Their live performances are a core selling point. This drives a ton of activity around their band in YouTube (people looking for concert footage). If they added some of their own on their own channel, they could capture a lot of this activity and engage with the fans.

5.2 Add video content fans are looking for

Having a channel is great, but fans are often looking for specific pieces of content. It's really nice to have lots of fans that upload this content for you for fun, but capturing some of this activity is important.

For example, another new band I have been liking a lot - Made In Heights—could be doing this:

search opportunities on youtube

Fans are looking for live performances, and the only ones there now are all fan uploads.

You can use YouTube search suggest to find other things fans are searching for. I don't see it mentioned often, but KeywordTool.io allows you to get YouTube search suggestions:

keywordtool.io youtube suggestions

This can quickly give you ideas of what content to add to your band page in YouTube:

keyword suggestions youtube

The above screenshot shows the most common searches around "Made In Heights". They mostly look like song names. If I were that band, I'd make sure they have video or content for every one of those songs. 

You can use YouTube directly of course to find search suggestions off of the band name. For example, there are a lot of lyric searches. This makes sense. People want to listen to the song while reading the lyrics:

lyric search autosuggest

Wow! Yet, what happens when we look in YouTube for "made in heights lyrics"?

search results lyrics youtube

Never mind the band not having any lyric results—NO one has any lyric results. This is definitely an opportunity to provide content that doesn't exist within YouTube.

5.3 Create playlists

Playlists are also overlooked in YouTube. They have many benefits:

  • Make your content easier to discover by organizing it.
  • Keep viewers on your content, in your channel
  • I've heard it rumored that creation of playlists can help you rank better in YouTube search only if your channel helps YouTube keep viewers... inside YouTube. Playlists can do this.
  • You can organize videos from any account into your playlists.
  • You can also rank in Google search with playlists (more on that below)

I started using playlists on my YouTube music channel (where I mainly post covers and tutorials of hip-hop songs on piano)—and at least anecdotally—have seen my view count rise faster than usual:

youtube playlists

(I sure did use the word "content" a lot in that screenshot!)

Many popular artists in YouTube don't have any playlists though—for example  Flying Lotus:

missing band playlist youtube

You can also curate playlists of videos about your band no matter who uploaded it. For example, let's say you're Drake (OK, maybe Drake's record label or social media manager). You could curate playlists of the best Drake interviews, no matter who uploaded them:

drake seo suggestions

Then when fans search, they may discover the playlist on Drake's channel which could earn subscriptions and also get them watching their chosen interviews.

Speaking of Drake—remember when I mentioned you could rank in Google search with YouTube playlists? Take a look at this:

drake serp

That's a random  fan playlist ranking #1 for "drake playlist"—which gets 1,600 searches a month. That's not an outlying case though. I barely had to look further for another example:

john legend playlist serp

"john legend playlist" gets 720 searches a month—and two fan playlists rank at the top.

6. Contribute to Medium.com

While the idea of "guest posting" is saturated in many industries, I don't see this being done a whole lot in the music industry. That's why I was impressed when I noticed a DJ named A-Trak posted this compelling article about rap in 2014:

guest posting for bands on medium

A few months later, this article has earned:

  • 254 recommendations on Medium
  • 1,480 Facebook shares
  • 470 tweets
  • 336 Google +1's
  • Including shares by Fred Wilson (380,000+ followers) and pianist Chilly Gonzales (40,000+ followers and high relevance)

It even ranks #2 for [rap in 2014]:

serp for rap in 2014

Although not super high volume, it potentially ranks for a lot of long tail—and will bring in consistent brand discovery from a relevant audience.

6. Provide exclusive content about your lyrics

The SEO world is no stranger to lyric searches. Just last year, Rap Genius (now just "Genius") was caught up in a Google penalty. And back on December 19, Glenn Gabe was the first to notice Google displaying full lyrics in search results:

band-provided lyric content in serps

Glenn Gabe's screenshot from December 19, 2014 of Google displaying lyrics in search. 

Glenn also recently published a pretty  in depth study about lyrics in the SERPs I highly recommend you check out.

In his article, Glenn astutely points out that when you add the word "meaning" to your lyrics search—the lyrics box goes away—which I found to be true looking at Sylvan Esso "Coffee" lyrics:

lyrics meaning in serps

As a band you could release exclusive content about your lyrics such as:

  • A photo of where they were originally written (on a napkin while on tour etc)
  • The story about how/why they were written
  • An explanation about their style (rhyme patterns, metaphors, references to history etc.)
  • Share old/original versions of the lyrics or a certain line and the process of revisions

Fans and music publications could also create exclusive content about the lyrics. They could interview the band about their meaning—or publish their own in-depth interpretation of the meaning.

I also want to point out—there can be a lot of search volume for a single line of a song lyric, if the song and artist are popular enough. Check out the volume for this one line by Drake:

lyric search by line

That's 1,000 searches a month (certainly skewed all towards February, when the album came out) for "runnin' through the 6 with my woes".

And I want to point out, 65% of those searches are being done on mobile phones


mobile lyric searches

Check out search volume for Adele lyrics from years ago now:

adele lyric search

"But I set fire to the rain" and "watched it pour as I touched your face" both get decent volume and have a good share of mobile share.

Yet there is only one result in this SERP explaining the meaning to this line:

lyric search opportunity

There's definitely value to be found by:

  • finding lines from lyrics with search volume
  • creating content to satisfy the user intent

Both the artists AND third party publishers have an opportunity here. Genius.com is really the only true player in this space right now!

7. Optimize for real name searches

Remember my friend "Lost Midas"? This is obviously not his real name. It's Jason Trikakis. Not a hugely common name. So a search for it should return his website #1 right? 

real name searches in serps

Wrong. You can't always rely on Google to "figure it out." The problem here stems back to the fact his website is not very search-friendly. His name is on the website but very hard for Google to find.

Solution in this case would be:

  • Ultimately to be on a better web platform. 
  • But also adding his name into the title of the page (if possible on Flavors.me) would certainly be a step in the right direction :)

Also—remember Sylvan Esso? What if one were to be searching around for "Nick Sanborn" who makes up 1/2 of the Sylvan Esso duo?

real name search for band member

Now, I'd never argue something from sylvanesso.com should appear at the top. But there's nothing from their domain on the first page. As a fan, I'd probably enjoy at least one result from one of their own domains.

Here's a few ideas for them:

  • Create a bio page on their own site
  • Have a personal website which can then get people to the band website etc

There's SO much more I could have mentioned in terms of marketing music these days. When I  played in bands it was the days of MySpace :) I don't even think YouTube was out yet. 

There are so many opportunities out there now with social media, platforms like Soundcloud and Bandcamp. I left a LOT out of this post.

If you have any questions at all, please ask in the comments below! And I also love to chat about music!


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Seth's Blog : The panic tax

The panic tax

Systems under severe stress degrade.

While individuals might do extraordinary work while pumped with adrenalin (lifting a car, running through a burning building), panic can decrease the efficacy of a system by 30% or more--often completely destroying it.

Compare the typical throughput of a highway during rush hour (when it's filled with seasoned commuters) to a similar road when people are fleeing a natural disaster.... in the first case, the cars naturally keep a safe distance, drivers are sufficiently alert, everyone gets home. In the other, there's a complete standstill.

Or consider how the TSA functions in an environment of stress (like the Orlando airport). A combination of leisure travelers, poor management and bad architecture means that (at least every time I've been there), there's a lot of yelling, invaded space and wasted time. Not to mention frayed nerves among Disney-overdosed parents in need of anything but more hassle.

Here are some thoughts for someone who might want to write a book about the panic tax (or someone who runs a system that shouldn't be degraded):

1. The cost of ameliorating panic in your system is always less than the cost of the the lost productivity when panic hits. In other words, all the other steps are worth it.

2. Slack is the enemy of panic. When in doubt, add resources, or even simpler, remove requirements. That's what the gated entry points on crowded freeways do... the entire road goes faster when fewer cars are on it, meaning that gating cars at the entrance is actually far faster than letting them on over the course of the commute.

3. Media voices, politicians and others that create panic for a living need to own responsibility for the way their actions dramatically magnify the cost we all pay.

4. The answer to, "should we panic," is always no. Always. Panic is expensive, panic compounds and panic doesn't solve the problem.

5. Install panic dampers at every opportunity. TSA officers should be trained to talk more softly and slowly when their systems approach capacity. Sound deadening devices should be tuned to be most effective when volume increases. The police should be trained to seek compliance second, after they are able to diffuse panic.

6. They call them panic attacks for a reason. After-action review, an attack-analysis session, ought to be held whenever a system freezes under panic. Find the instigator, the first step, not the last one, and invest in what it takes to ameliorate it next time.

Mostly: Panic averted is far cheaper than panic survived.

       

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duminică, 29 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Sarkozy, Le Pen Triumph Over Socialists in Second Round of Local Elections

Posted: 29 Mar 2015 06:57 PM PDT

The Socialists were routed in the second round of French elections this weekend. The centre-right UMP party led by Nicholas Sarkozy was the clear winner but Marone Le Pen's National Front had it best performance ever at the local level although it did not win any départements.

The Financial Times reports Nicolas Sarkozy the winner as French local polls deal blow to Socialists.
The UMP, led by the former president Nicolas Sarkozy and in an election coalition with the centrist UDI party, won between 66 and 70 départements compared with 41 previously, according to projections from polling companies.

By contrast, the Socialist party looked to have held on to between only 27 and 31 — barely half the 61 départements it controlled before.

The far-right National Front (FN), meanwhile, appeared to have made considerable ground in Sunday's second-round vote — though it was unclear if it had done enough to win full control of any départements.

Even so, the anti-immigration, anti-euro party led by Marine Le Pen is likely to have done much to boost its national presence as it looks ahead to the 2017 presidential election. The FN has made important gains in recent years, wooing voters from both left and right, disillusioned by the lack of economic growth and high unemployment.

Following on the back of last year's success in European elections over France's two mainstream parties, Ms Le Pen called Sunday's result "the foundation of tomorrow's big victories".
Sarkozy and Le Pen Triumph in French Local Elections

The Guardian reports Hollande Left Bruised as Sarkozy and Le Pen Triumph in French Local Elections
Front National's strong gains mark turning point for far right in expanding grassroots presence, while win for Sarkozy prefigures likely presidential run.

 The French right has made large gains in the country's local elections, handing President François Hollande's ruling Socialist party its third electoral drubbing in a year and raising fears for the future of the left.

Nicolas Sarkozy's rightwing UMP party, in coalition with centrist allies, took the largest share of seats, wresting control of many traditional leftwing bastions from the Socialists.

But key to the changing political landscape in France was the strong showing for the far-right Front National, which marked a major turning-point as the party established a new grassroots presence across the country.

After winning only two local council seats at the last election in 2011, Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration and anti-Europe party was on track to win as many as 90 councillors, cementing the Front National's transformation from what was once a simple national protest vote to a locally anchored movement that Le Pen hopes to use as a springboard for her presidential bid in 2017.

Although the Front National did not win outright control of any département local council, its percentage score rose sharply from the last local elections.

Le Pen hailed her party's best result in a local election as a "magnificent success".

The Socialist prime minister, Manuel Valls, said: "The very high – too high – score of the far-right represents, more than ever, a challenge to all republicans."

He said the Front National's success marked a "lasting upheaval" of the French political landscape and all political parties had to learn lessons from it.

The local elections, followed by the regional elections in December, have been seen as a barometer for 2017's presidential race. Several polls have shown that Le Pen could make into the second-round presidential runoff vote in 2017, knocking out either the left or right.

Most pollsters agree that Le Pen could never gain enough votes in the final round to win the presidency. But her potential presence in a runoff has worried the mainstream left and right. Socialists are keen to avoid their candidate being knocked out, as happened when Jean-Marie Le Pen knocked out Lionel Jospin in 2002.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Time to Eliminate Pilots in Aircrafts: Post Pilot Era Coming Up

Posted: 29 Mar 2015 01:31 PM PDT

Instead of new rules making sure two people are in the cockpit at all times, how about a rule that says no one at all is allowed in the cockpit? This is precisely how I felt after 911 and even more so after the disappearance of Malaysia Flight 370 on March 8.

The tragedy of Germanwings Flight 9525 in which a mentally ill co-pilot deliberately flew the plane into a mountain killing all 150 on board is icing on the cake.

And it's not just two deliberate crashes either. Please consider The Mystery of Flight 9525: a Locked Door, a Silent Pilot and a Secret History of Illness.
Just under 40 minutes into their journey, the plane's 27-year-old co-pilot, Andreas Lubitz, turned the Airbus A320 into a missile, guiding it into the southern Alps after locking its captain, Patrick Sonderheimer, out of the cockpit.

In the doomed flight's final minutes, Sonderheimer attempted to force his way through the security door that separates the passengers from the pilots. At one stage he reportedly tried to use an axe. Recordings obtained by crash investigators capture him attempting to remonstrate with Lubitz – whose breathing, according to the microphones in the cockpit, remained sure and steady as the plane made its rapid descent. It was only in the final seconds that there was the sound of screams. Experts said death would have been instant.

As the New York Times revealed early on Thursday, French time, the voice recorder confirmed that Lubitz had locked the captain out of the flight deck and set the plane on its descent.

In November 2013, a flight between Mozambique and Angola crashed in Namibia, killing 33 people. Initial investigations suggested the accident was deliberately caused by the captain shortly after his co-pilot had left the flight deck.

In October 1999, an EgyptAir Boeing 767 went into a rapid descent 30 minutes after taking off from New York, killing 217 people. An investigation suggested that the crash was caused deliberately by the relief first officer, although the evidence was not conclusive.

And in December 1997, more than 100 people were killed when a Boeing 737 flying from Indonesia to Singapore crashed; the pilot, who was said to be suffering from "multiple work-related difficulties", was suspected of switching off the flight recorders and intentionally putting the plane into a dive.

In an interview with the bestselling German tabloid Bild, the 26-year-old flight attendant, known only as Maria W, said that they had separated "because it became increasingly clear that he had a problem". She said that he was plagued by nightmares and would wake up and scream "we're going down".

Last year he told her: "One day I'm going to do something that will change the whole system, and everyone will know my name and remember."

A debate now rages about the extent to which companies and regulators can monitor a person's mental health, especially if they perform a job that carries responsibility for the lives of others. The UN world aviation body has stressed that all pilots must have regular mental and physical checkups. But psychological assessments can be fallible. "If someone dissimulates – that is, they don't want other people to notice – it's very, very difficult," Reiner Kemmler, a psychologist who specialises in training pilots, told Deutschlandfunk public radio.
Debate over Mental Illness

The debate over mental illness, locked doors, emergency overrides etc., is the wrong debate.

The debate should quickly turn to whether there should be pilots in the plane at all.

Post Pilot-Era

The Globe and Mail hits the nail on the head with its report Aviation is Fast Approaching the Post-Pilot Era.
Every day, dozens of unmanned jet aircraft as big as private business jets take off from airports scattered around the globe. They fly for thousands of kilometres, staying aloft for as long as 36 hours, often changing course to cope with unexpected developments, before returning to land.

To call them drones grossly understates the sophistication, safety and cost-effectiveness of autonomous and remotely piloted aircraft.

Global Hawks, for instance – long-range, sophisticated surveillance jets, controlled from Beale Air Force Base in California but flying from at least six air bases in Japan, Guam and the Middle East – range around the world. They have been flying for 15 years. They have flown to Australia and back from the United States. They fly daily over Afghanistan and Iraq but also over heavily trafficked airspace where they fly high above commercial airliners. They can be programmed to take off, fly a 32-hour mission and land, all without direct human control. Alternatively, pilots half a world away, linked by multiple, secure and redundant satellite data links can "fly" them remotely. And there are thousands of other unmanned aerial vehicles already flying daily – mostly in military service.

Pilotless aircraft aren't a distant sci-fi concept nor the wishful dreams of bean-counters at big airlines where the nattily-uniformed flight crew is a big cost just waiting to be cut.

And, as many pilots inside cockpits lament, most of the time they do little, if any, "hand flying." Courses, heights, waypoints, rates of descent are all programmed into flight management computers which then "fly" modern aircraft far more smoothly and achieving far better fuel consumption, than even the most suave of airline captains.

Andreas Lubitz, the co-pilot suspected of deliberately crashing the Germanwings Airbus A320, didn't seize a control stick and frantically dive the jet into oblivion. Rather, he simply dialled in 100 feet, in place of the assigned 36,000 feet cruising altitude, and the Airbus dipped the nose of the 70-tonne, twin-engined jet and flew it smoothly at a steady 800 kilometres per hour for eight more minutes until it slammed into a mountain. Mr. Lubitz didn't need to touch anything further, except the lock override switch by his left hand that kept the captain out of the cockpit and doomed everyone on board.

Aviation experts envision an end to the era of pilots – at least pilots in cockpits – just as inevitably as elevator operators became redundant, expensive and far less precise in the operation than computerized systems.

As just as some high-end department stores kept on uniformed elevator operators who did nothing except offer reassurance by their presence to nervous shoppers, the transition to remotely-guided or autonomous aircraft may include a period of pilots present but not required on board airliners.

In many ways, autonomous operation of aircraft is far less of a technological challenge than autonomous or driverless cars – which major manufacturers expect will be sharing the roads with more dangerous human drivers within a few years. For instance, across North America, there are only about 5,000 commercial and military aircraft flying in controlled airspace at one time. That's far fewer than the number of cars in a small city and they don't need to dodge pedestrians, other drivers unexpectedly doing stupid things or a host of other variables that make driving far more complex. And aircraft fly pre-determined routes, at heights and speeds that can be far more easily adjusted to avoid collisions between a few hundred well-defined destinations.

David Learmount, an operations and safety expert at Flightglobal and a veteran aviation expert who has flown dozens of aircraft types, predicts pilots won't be in cockpits in 15 years but in an airline's operations room, rather like the U.S. Air Force pilots flying Global Hawks from Beale.

"Imagine an airline crew room in 2030," he says. "The airline has, say, 300 airplanes, but only about 50 pilots. About ten of these will be on duty in the crew room at any one time [with secure links] to any of the fleet that's airborne. On the rare occasion that something anomalous occurs on an airplane, … they can intervene as effectively as they could have done in the aircraft."

Cargo flying and transoceanic routes, with no nervous passengers to persuade will likely be the first to make the change. United Parcel Service, the global package and freight giant operates 238 large cargo jet aircraft . In a decade, it expects to be flying pilotless freighter aircraft across the Pacific Ocean.
Transition Period


People feel safer with a pilot in the aircraft. They shouldn't. 911, Malaysia 370, Germanwings Airbus A320, EgyptAir 767, and deliberate crashes in Namibia and Indonesia are proof enough.

15 years is too long to wait. There should have been a transition to pilotless aircraft long ago. It's a tragedy that someone on the ground or the aircraft itself could not override these deliberate crashes.

Such fatal tragedies are very rare, but why have them at all? Self-driving cars and trucks will be safer than human-driven ones. So will automated ships and planes. If anything, ships and planes should be easier to implement than cars.

So why the delay?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Self talk

Self talk

There's no more important criticism than self criticism.

There's no amount of external validation that can undo the constant drone of internal criticism.

And negative self talk is hungry for external corroboration. One little voice in the ether that agrees with your internal critic is enough to put you in a tailspin.

The remedy for negative self talk, then, is not the search for unanimous praise from the outside world. It's a hopeless journey, and one that destroys the work, because you will water it down in fear of that outside critic that amplifies your internal one.

The remedy is accurate and positive self talk. Endless amounts of it.

Not delusional affirmations or silly metaphysical pronouncements about the universe. No, merely the reassertion of obvious truths, a mantra that drives away the nonsense the lizard brain is selling as truth. 

You cannot reason with negative self talk or somehow persuade it that the world disagrees. All you can do is surround it with positive self talk, drown it out and overwhelm it with concrete building blocks of great work, the combination of expectation, obligation and possibility.

When in doubt, tell yourself the truth. 

       

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sâmbătă, 28 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Can the Eurozone Survive? Not in Its Current Form Says PIMCO; Mish Response

Posted: 28 Mar 2015 06:20 PM PDT

Echoing statements I have made many times, PIMCO says the single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future.

Please consider Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO.
The eurozone is "untenable" in its current form and cannot survive unless countries are prepared to cede sovereignty and become a "United States of Europe", the manager of the world's biggest bond fund has warned.

The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said that while the bloc was likely to stay together in the medium term, with Greece remaining in the eurozone, the single currency could not survive if countries did not move closer together.

Persistently weak growth in the eurozone had led to voter unrest and the rise of populist parties such as Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece, and Front National in France, said PIMCO managing directors Andrew Bosomworth and Mike Amey.

"The lesson from history is that the status quo we have now is not a tenable structure," said Mr Bosomworth. "There's no historical precedent that this sort of structure, which is centralised monetary policy, decentralised fiscal policy, can last over multiple decades."

PIMCO said the rise of populist parties demonstrated how uneasy some people had become about the euro.

"[Persistently low growth] manifests itself in a lack of support in the common currency, so then it leads to the rise to power of political parties that want to end it," said Mr Bosomworth.

PIMCO said the rise of populist parties demonstrated how uneasy some people had become about the euro.

"[Persistently low growth] manifests itself in a lack of support in the common currency, so then it leads to the rise to power of political parties that want to end it," said Mr Bosomworth.
Nothing New 

I certainly agree the eurozone cannot survive unless it becomes the "United States of Europe".

There is absolutely nothing new in this announcement other than who said it. I have been talking about this for years.

Can the Eurozone Survive? 

It won't because it cannot. Germany's constitution prohibits a fiscal union and transfer mechanism. If that changes, I will change my tune.

And that's also something I have also said.

In addition to Germany's constitution, I believe Finland and other states would object. Heck, look at all the animosity over Greece. Look at work rules and retirement ages in France.

For a "United States of Europe" to work, countless issues would need to be worked out. And to top it off, eurozone rules are such that every nation would have to ratify the changes. What's the likelihood of that?

Bottom Line

If the Eurozone cannot survive without becoming the "United States of Europe", it cannot survive at all.

For detailed discussion on this topic, please see From ZIRP to NIRP: Virtues of Germany vs. the Vices of Greece; What About "Speece" and Gold? 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wally Becomes Chief Economist for Dilbert, Predicts "Bubble in Monetary Policy"

Posted: 28 Mar 2015 10:29 AM PDT

On the lighter side, in the March 28, 2015 Dilbert, Wally becomes the new chief economist.



Wally: "The exchange rate on derivatives will trigger a bubble in monetary policy and deflate the Yen."

I like the phrase "bubble in monetary policy". It aptly expresses precisely what has been happening globally.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : 'Pick yourself' and taking responsibility

'Pick yourself' and taking responsibility

Perhaps you've decided that the idea of Pick Yourself is sort of a new-age mantra, a promise that everyone is entitled to what they want, right now.

What a shortcut it seems to be. A false promise, holding out that illusion that we can get what we want if we just raise our hand. Pick yourself, you win...

It's precisely the opposite.

If you want to be responsible for making music, make music. If you want to be responsible for writing, speaking, making change happen, go do that. Waiting to get picked is a form of hiding, not realism.

No, it's not always possible for everyone to succeed by being the most popular, the most clicked on, the most liked. In fact, it will never happen. No one is promising that, I hope. What pick yourself means is that it's never been easier to decide to be responsible for your own work, for your own agenda, for the change you make in the world. To have a chance to matter. Not to be finished right now, but starting now.

Pick yourself means we should stop waiting and whining and stalling.

The outcome is still in doubt, but it's clear that waiting just doesn't pay.

[Podcast discussions on this topic: Unmistakable Creative, Sounds Like a MovementThe Lede, Read to Lead]

       

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