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duminică, 24 mai 2015

This week's top Pins

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Hi Hari,

Take a look at what's popular on Pinterest this week!

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If you are in a big hurry to prepare a ...

Sharon Schoof

Food

Tiffany Heart Stud Earrings by LaLiLaJewelry

diana nevarez

Fashionista !!!

Roasted Mushrooms with Garlic Thyme

Tini Morgan

Easy meals

time doesn't heal all wounds. But God does....believe

Jewell Clark

Cool

Refreshing Melon Ball Punch by ifoodtv: Summertime! #Punch #Melon_Ball #Healthy ...

Lexy G.

Recipes to make

7 Ways to Shrink Your Muffin Top. Lose weight, tone ...

leftovers agin

health

collecting the scars | hannah brencher

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sâmbătă, 23 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Project Bookend: BoE Emails Guardian Top Secret Documents on Brexit, Including PR Notes on How to Deny the Project

Posted: 23 May 2015 09:49 AM PDT

Incompetence at Its Finest

Here's a major laugh for a long holiday weekend in the US: Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit

Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.

The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.

According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.

The revelation is likely to embarrass the bank governor, Mark Carney, who has overhauled the central bank's operations and promised greater transparency over its decision-making.

MPs are now likely to ask whether the Bank intended to inform parliament that a major review of Britain's prospects outside the EU was being undertaken by the institution that acts as the UK's main financial regulator. Carney is also likely to come under pressure within the Bank to reveal whether there are other undercover projects underway.

Officials are likely to have kept the project under wraps to avoid entering the highly charged debate around the EU referendum, which has jumped to the top of the political agenda since the Conservatives secured an overall majority. Many business leaders and pro-EU campaigners have warned that "Brexit" would hit British exports and damage the standing of the City of London.

The email indicates that a small group of senior staff are to examine the effect of a Brexit under the authority of Sir Jon Cunliffe, who as deputy director for financial stability has responsibility for monitoring the risk of another market crash.

The email, from Cunliffe's private secretary to four senior executives, was written on 21 May and forwarded by mistake to a Guardian editor by the Bank's head of press, Jeremy Harrison.

Secret Agent Man

I offer the following musical tribute in "honor" of secret projects of the Bank of England.

Link if video does not play: Jonny Rivers - Secret Agent Man 1966

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rand Paul: Unleashing the American Dream

Posted: 23 May 2015 09:23 AM PDT

Those living in or near Chicago have the opportunity to hear Senator Rand Paul in a discussion about how to transform Chicago, the state of Illinois and the U.S. with liberty-based public policy solutions.

Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2015 from 12:30 PM to 2:00 PM (CDT)
Location: The 1871 Center at the Merchandise Mart, 222 West Merchandise Mart Plaza Chicago, IL 60654.

Cost of the event is $10.

The topic is "Unequal economic opportunity, failing schools and a broken criminal-justice system," as opposed to the Chicago pension crisis that I have been talking about lately.

Senator Paul is reaching out to minorities in inner cities, and that is a good thing.

I am trying to see if they can arrange a live video feed, but the preliminary indication is no.

The Illinois Policy Institute is sponsoring the event. To purchase a ticket or for media queries, please contact Eventbrite at Unleashing the American Dream.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : But do you want to get better?

But do you want to get better?

It seems like a stupid question. Of course we want our organization, our work and our health to improve.

But often, we don't.

Better means change and change means risk and risk means fear.

So the organization is filled with people who have been punished when they try to make things better, because the boss is afraid.

And so the patient gets the prescription but doesn't actually take all the meds.

And the bureaucrat feigns helplessness because it's easier to shrug than it is to care.

There are countless ways to listen, to engage with users, to learn and to improve, but before you or your organization waste time on any of them, first the question must be answered, "do we want to get better?"

Really? We can tell.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 22 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Yellen Yap: Point by Point Rebuttal

Posted: 22 May 2015 11:33 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are reading Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Outlook for the Economy speech, delivered today at the Providence, Rhode Island Chamber of Commerce.

Here are a few snips from what I believe to believe is a way over-optimistic assessment. I provide rebuttals following each statement.

Yellen: The U.S. economy seems well positioned for continued growth. Households are seeing the benefits of the improving jobs situation, and consumer confidence has been solid.

Mish: The economy is not positioned for much, if any, growth. Consumer confidence is not solid, and consumer spending plans have been sinking like a rock. See Consumer Confidence Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate; Consumers Shock Economists.

Yellen: The drop in oil prices amounts to a sizable boost in household purchasing power. The annual savings in gasoline costs has been estimated at about $700 per household, on average, and savings on heating costs--especially here in the Northeast, where it was so cold this winter--are also large. Given these energy savings on top of the job gains, real disposable income has risen almost 4 percent nationally over the past four quarters. Households and businesses also are benefiting from favorable financial conditions. Borrowing costs are low, supported by the Fed's accommodative monetary policies. And credit availability to both households and small businesses has improved.

Mish: Any savings on energy went up in smoke on rental increases and rising health care costs. See CPI Shows Sharply Rising Medical Costs; Huge Obamacare Hikes Planned.

Yellen: In recent months, as I noted earlier, there has been some softness in the economic data. Recent indicators of both household spending and business investment have slowed, and industrial output has declined. The Commerce Department's initial estimate was that real gross domestic product was nearly flat in the first quarter of 2015. If confirmed by further estimates, my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time, including the unusually cold and snowy winter and the labor disputes at ports on the West Coast, both of which likely disrupted some economic activity. And some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. I therefore expect the economic data to strengthen.

Mish: In a shock to economists, consumers are doing exactly what they said they would do, not what economist's models predicted consumers would do.

For what consumers said they would do, please see Household Spending Growth Expectations Plunge; Recession Already Started?

For what consumers actually did, please see Dismal Retail Sales Numbers Suggest Recession Likely Underway.

Yellen: Putting it all together, the economic projections of most members of the FOMC call for growth in real gross domestic product of roughly 2-1/2 percent per year over the next couple of years, a little faster than the pace of the recovery thus far, with the unemployment rate continuing to move down to near 5 percent by the end of this year. And for inflation, as I noted earlier, my colleagues and I expect inflation to move up toward our objective of 2 percent as the economy strengthens further and as transitory influences wane.

Mish: The economic projections of the Fed have been and remain laughable.

Here is an amusing chart of the Fed's own pathetic performance from Honey I Shrunk the Kids.

.

Yellen: Given this economic outlook and the attendant uncertainty, how is monetary policy likely to evolve over the next few years? Because of the substantial lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a forward-looking manner. Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy.

Mish: The Fed is far too late. The obvious bubbles in equities and junk bonds are proof enough. The Fed has never once in history tightened in a forward-looking manner. Panic reactions are the norm.

Yellen: If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. To support taking this step, however, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the medium term.

Mish: The idea that consumer price deflation is damaging is downright idiotic. Even the BIS recognizes that fact. For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Fed Consistently Wrong

The Fed has been consistently wrong as discussed in Why Are Economists' Predictions So Damn Awful?

The Fed has been so wrong, so many times, and in so many ways. Why anyone bothers to listen to such speeches other than to poke fun at them remains a mystery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

CPI Shows Sharply Rising Medical Costs; Huge Obamacare Hikes Planned

Posted: 22 May 2015 09:43 AM PDT

The CPI came in exactly in line with the Bloomberg Consensus option today.

It's the details, not the overall number that is worrying. Medical care and rents have been rising rapidly.

The Fed likes to ignore food and energy costs. They have their chance to prove it.

From Bloomberg ...

Pull forward that rate hike is what some of the hawks are thinking after reading today's consumer price report where a benign looking headline, up only 0.1 percent in April, masks rising pressure through many components.

Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.3 percent which doesn't seem that much but is outside Econoday's high-end forecast for 0.2 percent. It is also the highest since January 2013. The year-on-year rate for the core is plus 1.8 percent which, after dipping to 1.6 percent earlier in the year, is closing in on the Fed's general inflation target of 2.0 percent.

Readings showing pressure are outside energy including medical costs (up a very steep 0.7 percent in the month) and education costs (up 0.5 percent). Shelter costs, reflecting rising rents, came in at plus 0.3 percent for the 3rd time in 4 months which is the hottest streak for this reading since way back in late 2006 and early 2007. Also standing out are gains in furniture (up 1.3 percent) and used cars (up 0.6 percent).

Oil prices have been on the rise but not energy costs, at least in the April report which fell a heavy 1.3 percent. Gasoline fell 1.7 percent in the month. Two other readings also showed downward pressure: airfares (minus 1.3 percent) and apparel (minus 0.3 percent). Food costs were flat.

The headline CPI is down 0.2 percent year-on-year which looks downright deflationary. But the lack of pressure is due entirely to energy which is down a very deflationary 19.4 percent year-on-year. Energy prices are bound to firm given the recent move in oil from the high $40s for WTI to $60. That and emerging price pressures through the bulk of the consumer economy raise the risk that inflation may be brewing after all.

The CPI Seasonally Adjusted Numbers from the BLS look even worse.

Seasonally Adjusted

All Items Less Food and Energy rose 0.3% (following a rise of 0.2% in March and 0.2% in February)
Medical Care jumped 0.9% in April (following a rise of 0.4% in March).
Used Cars jumped 0.6% (following a rise of 1.2% in March and 1.0% in February).
Shelter rose 0.3% (following a rise of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February)

Supposedly energy prices declined 1.3%. Gasoline led the way with a 1.7% decline. Does that seem believable?

Health Insurers Seek Hefty Rate Boosts

Worse yet, planned Obamacare premiums are about to explode, setting the stage for debate over federal health law's impact.

The Wall Street Journal reports Health Insurers Seek Hefty Rate Boosts.

Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law's impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act.

"This year, health plans have a full year of claims data to understand the health needs of the [health insurance] exchange population, and these enrollees are generally older and often managing multiple chronic conditions," said Clare Krusing, a spokeswoman for America's Health Insurance Plans, an industry group. "Premiums reflect the rising cost of providing care to individuals and families, and the explosion in prescription and specialty drug prices is a significant factor."

Poor Retail Sales Explained

Economists have been struggling to explain poor retail sales and the slump in consumer attitudes. All their models suggested consumers would increase retail spending thanks to the decline in gasoline prices.

The economists all forgot to factor in the Obamacare effect and rising rents. This is just round one.

For further discussion please see ...

To wrap it up, please consider Why Are Economists' Predictions So Damn Awful?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

This Museum Is Like A Nightmare Come To Life

Posted: 22 May 2015 07:08 PM PDT

The Mutter Museum in downtown Philadelphia specializes in showing off unique medical experiments. From the looks of things it also specializes in creating nightmares too.

A Closer Look At The Motorcycles From Mad Max: Fury Road

Posted: 22 May 2015 06:36 PM PDT

"Mad Max: Fury Road" is seeing a lot of success at the box office and there's a big buzz around the film. One of the things people are talking about is how cool the vehicles look in the film, especially the motorcycles.