vineri, 16 august 2013

Seth's Blog : What did you do on your summer vacation?

 

What did you do on your summer vacation?

I was lucky enough to spend a fortnight with sixteen extraordinary people from around the world. I'll be sharing some of what we built in a few weeks, but in the meantime, you can see a short video they made along with the list of talented folks and their contact info here:

Summer_2013__The_Krypton_team_on_Vimeo

Also worth sharing from the last two months: A podcast on branding and making a ruckus.

Stop Stealing Dreams is now available in Chinese.

A short video on my part in the lineage of style canoeing.

And live, at Ford. The bell curve is melting.

Also, before it gets cold outside, you can get the entire text (every word!) of Poke the Box on a t-shirt. They donate a worthy book  to charity for every shirt sold.

Poke-tee-6_grande

       

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You made this happen

 

Hey guys --

Because of you, Washington accomplished something big.

After rates on new student loans doubled on July 1st, a group of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle came together to help solve the problem. The compromise keeps rates low for students, guaranteeing that borrowers can lock in low rates currently available, and capping rate increases in the future.

Last Friday, President Obama signed that bill into law.

And we have you to thank for it. It happened because you raised your voices, and Washington saw how much you cared about this issue.

Now, the typical undergraduate will save about $1,500 on new loans this year. And that's incredibly important for the sophomore waiting tables to pay tuition, or the senior working in her college library to help make ends meet.

So when President Obama signed the bill last week, there were students on hand to talk about what this meant for them. It's a powerful thing to watch.

Check out this video of students telling their stories, then share it so that others know how important this issue is, too.

This was your victory. You took to Facebook and Twitter, you told your friends, and you made your voice so loud and clear that you couldn't be ignored. You got it done.

But even with this success, we need to make sure more Americans have access to higher education -- that young Americans are preparing for the kinds of jobs we need in a 21st century economy, and aren't saddled with mountains of debt while they do it.

A college education is so critical for success -- a lesson I learned from my parents, who worked hard every day to make sure I had the opportunity to excel. It's a lesson that rang true for me as ever when I watched these young students tell their stories.

I hope you'll take a minute to watch, too:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/big-win-for-students

Thanks!

Cecilia

Cecilia Muñoz
Director, Domestic Policy Council
The White House
@Cecilia44

P.S. -- Next week, President Obama will be speaking about how we can keep college costs down and ensure increased access to higher education. Stay tuned for more.

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It's Mailbag Day!

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

It's Mailbag Day!

This week, we took to our social media networks where our followers asked us about everything that's happening at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Wondering what the typical day is like, or what we do with all of the kitchen garden's honey? You'll have to watch to find out.

Click here to watch this Summer Mailbag edition of West Wing Week.

Watch this week's West Wing Week

 
 
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One Year Anniversary of Implementation of Deferred Action Policy for DREAMers

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Overcoming Client Objections - Whiteboard Friday

Overcoming Client Objections - Whiteboard Friday


Overcoming Client Objections - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 07:14 PM PDT

Posted by Brittan Bright

Whether the objection is over a line in your contract or an aspect of your process, when a client's thinking doesn't align with your own, moving projects forward can be difficult or impossible. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Brittan Bright shares her insight into some of the most common objections, along with recommendations for how to get things back on track.


For reference, here's a still image of this week's whiteboard:

Video Transcription

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Whiteboard Friday. My name is Brittan Bright. I'm the director of client strategy at iAcquire. Today we're going to be talking about overcoming client objections. So my role is to work directly with clients. For SEOs, sometimes this can be challenging, and depending on how your organization determines how they're going to service clients, these skills are helpful at every level of an organization.

Some common objections we have over here are things I'd like to cover today. I also have a checklist of how you can think through the thought process of how to effectively overcome some of these objections or find a way to compromise with them.

One of them is, commonly, our clients are going to object to our contract. Sometimes it's during the negotiation phase. Sometimes you get a new point of contact at an organization that might review the contract and interpret it differently. Sometimes there are stipulations that are mandated by one company or another that they can't agree to. So oftentimes, a contract can be a point of contention with the clients at any stage in the relationship.

Objections to recommendations. Not everybody thinks that every recommendation we make as a service provider is always going to be as brilliant as we think it is, or be able to actually implement the recommendations in the full way that we intend them to be. We have to be prepared to understand and speak to any objections that we encounter when it comes to the recommendations that we make for our clients.

Our business model. This is an interesting one. I've seen a lot of conversations about this in the blogs and on Twitter, but it's challenging because everybody is kind of trying to figure out the best way to service clients. Different people have approached it in a variety of ways. Sometimes clients have a preference. Sometimes clients just want what they want, and it really depends. You have to be able to speak to your business model and overcome that when it becomes a challenge and in a relationship with a client, as well.

To your process. This is an interesting one. It depends, again, on your point of contact and who you're working with at an organization, but there are times that you may have your process questioned. There may be a client that is particularly interested in a specific tactic being done a specific way. There are many times we are having to defend and sometimes explain our process, and I think there are some really productive ways that we can get around that.

Then also your staff. Not everyone likes the people that have been assigned to their account. Not everyone is able to work effectively. Not everyone is able to understand personalities. So that is something that we have to be prepared to do, is understand how we can overcome objections to the staff that has been assigned to a specific account.

I have several different ways that we can look at this, because as we all know, there is not just one answer to this. It's very customized to the particular client, to your organization, to the situation, and to the project. So instead of telling you exactly what to do, I think it's helpful to understand a good way to think through some of these issues. So I put together a checklist of things I like to go through in my mind as I'm advising my team on how to overcome some of these challenges when we encounter them.

Understanding the objection. That's really, really important and often not thought about. Sometimes a client might come back and say, "Hey, I don't like the terms of this contract," and provide a different solution like, "I want a 30-day out," or, "I want to be able to approve every single thing that you do before I see it," just something that will throw off the process. Instead of reacting to the actual thing that the client says, we need to make sure that we understand the root of that issue. Is it because they have quality concerns? Is there another way that we can overcome that?

Is there something we didn't do in the sales process that left them feeling a little unsure and wanting a little bit more of the process in their control? Is a 30-day out something standard across their organization? Is there another way that we could compromise with that and understand what needs to be achieved in order to get buy-in from possibly someone higher up, who determines whether or not a contract is approved? So understanding what the objection is and what's behind it is often more important than just immediately reacting to what the objection is at first.

One solution to contract objections that I thought I'd share, that is pretty simple, is sometimes using their contract. Now, obviously that's not ideal, but there are some organizations that have very, very strict contracts, and we all know what it's like to get held up in legal, or their industries are very particular. If it's something that your organization allows you to do, sometimes using their contract is a way to show that you're taking a few steps toward the direction of really compromising and resolving the issue with the client, and can be very much appreciated and realized by creating a better relationship through the length of the engagement with the client.

Understanding the objection goes both ways too. So if you're a client and you have an objection to something that your service provider is doing, it is in your best interest to make sure that your objection is understood to who you're working with. Like I said, if your issue is with the contract, instead of necessarily kind of coming up with a solution, try to make sure that the person you're negotiating with understands where you're coming from, because they might have a creative solution that they've done for another client in the past that they can then do for you.

Put yourself in the objector's shoes. Empathy is key. I always think this one is very obvious, but I'm told that it's not. This is something that's really, really important when it comes to working with other people. The reason you've been hired, or the reason you're hiring someone, is to help you succeed. That can be a very personal thing. It determines how people perform. It determines how people are reviewed in their jobs. It's a very, very personal thing.

So putting yourself in someone shoes will help you understand some of the feedback you're getting on some of these. Maybe someone rejected your recommendation because it was completely the opposite of something that they, themselves, had championed before bringing you on board. Understanding that you might be coming in and, unbeknownst to you, possibly destroying some of the work or negating some of the work that the person you're now working directly with had put into place, and the sort of emotions and feelings behind that, might help you approach rephrasing your recommendation in another way.

Also, some internal road blocks, understanding how challenging and frustrating it might be to know what the right thing is to do and not be able to do it. Be creative. This is a huge, huge thing. Really, really talented SEOs have the ability to apply an artistry to the science that is SEO. Having the ability to be creative with your recommendations, to make sure that there are things that your client can implement, is extremely powerful, and it will get you a long-term client.

Do unto others, the golden rule. Again, something that seems pretty obvious, but it can be easy to forget when we get caught up in the passion and the frustration of the way we pour our heart and souls into the work that we do, especially when we feel misunderstood or maybe under-appreciated by the client. For example, if someone doesn't like your business model, if someone would rather speak to one of the consultants that's working on their project, instead of maybe their account manager, or maybe somebody wants to speak to someone more senior than the person they've been assigned to, there are a lot of different ways that accounts are serviced, and that is a tough decision to make as an organization.

So something that I like to point out is to know that the sales process never ends. If somebody doesn't understand your business model, then that could be part of the challenge. So never forget that you need to stay on your toes with your clients. You always need to help them understand why they're working with you, why we're doing everything we can to make them be successful, and don't forget to be on your best behavior and pull out all the stops. You know, don't get lazy just because you have a client already locked down. This will help them get a better appreciation for things like the way you choose to run your business.

Compromise when you can. That's really, really important. Sometimes we just have to compromise. We can't draw a hard line in the sand. I think this is really, really hard for some people, particularly when it might seem very clear cut from a technical perspective. For example, with your process, I know that we have that challenge sometimes internally, when we're doing creative things. For example, if we're creating a infographic for a client, and the client might have a different vision, and sometimes we need to really take that vision into consideration and understand why it's important to them, what we can do on our end, even if it might be outside of what we would typically recommend. If it's something that goes more towards the goals that the client has laid out for us, sometimes we might just have to do a little compromising.

But in this, trust is essential. So when your process needs to be compromised, make sure it's happening, not to appease a client, but because the client trusts you and you trust the client. You trust that the client knows that you're going outside of your process, and this might mean sacrifices in other areas, and the client will be less likely to challenge your process if they trust that you have their best interests at heart and that you understand their business. So trust is really, really important when overcoming this particular objection.

Then don't compromise when you shouldn't. This is very, very, very important, and also something that's very difficult. Sometimes you do have to draw a line in the sand. Sometimes you do have to say no. Sometimes you do have to walk away, because respect is very, very important. I'm going to use this as it relates to your staff, but again, everything on this checklist can apply to all of these objections.

When it relates to your staff, you might have a client who doesn't treat one of your staff members very well. I don't like to compromise in that situation. Now if it's a situation where someone on my team has dropped the ball or has done something disrespectful, which hasn't happened, under my watch at least, I believe and I support my team, and I think that's really, really important. If you support and you invest in your team and that's visible to the client, then there are times when you shouldn't compromise, and you should hold your ground, because respect on a mutual level for your client, and the work they do, and for them to have that for you, creates a much better foundation for a long-lasting client relationship.

So that's all I have for today. Thank you so much. I look forward to seeing all of you at MozCon. I will be speaking there, and I hope to meet some of you in person. Thanks.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Seth's Blog : Will I see you tomorrow?

 

Will I see you tomorrow?

There is no greater indicator of future behavior than the answer to this question.

Fly-by, drive-by, anonymous, see-you-sucker interactions are easy to start, easy to be disappointed by, hard to count on when it comes to civility or a career.

We work to create the alternative. Masks off, snarkiness set aside, committed to long haul. That's the connection that the connection economy is built on.

       

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joi, 15 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Is Selling Bonds the Taste of Things to Come?

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 07:38 PM PDT

Treasury yields are on the rise as I have noted on numerous occasions recently.

The action has prompted the world's largest hedge-fund manager, to throw in the towel on treasuries and inflation-linked TIPS.

Please consider Dalio Patched All Weather's Rate Risk as U.S. Bonds Fell
As the bond market plunged in late June, Ray Dalio convened the clients of Bridgewater Associates LP, the world's largest hedge-fund manager, to tell them that a fund designed to withstand a broad range of market scenarios was too vulnerable to changes in interest rates.

Bridgewater, citing months of study, said it had underestimated the interest-rate sensitivity of various assets in its All Weather fund and was taking steps to mitigate the risk, according to clients who listened to or read a transcript of the June 24 call. By the end of the month, the Westport, Connecticut-based firm had sold off enough Treasuries and inflation-linked bonds to help reduce the fund's most rate-sensitive assets by $37 billion, according to fund documents and data provided by investors.

The move, disclosed to investors five days after the Federal Reserve said it's prepared to phase out its unprecedented bond purchases, was unusual for the fund. As its name suggests, All Weather is designed to produce returns in most economic environments and avoid altering asset allocations when the outlook changes. All Weather incurred a second-quarter loss of 8.4 percent that was primarily tied to its $56 billion portfolio of inflation-linked debt, said the clients, who asked not to be named because the fund is private. 'A Foretaste'

The decline at All Weather and similar funds, including those run by Cliff Asness's AQR Capital Management LLC and Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), shows Bridgewater's pioneering strategy for allocating assets between stocks and bonds, known as risk parity, can leave investors overexposed to rising interest rates. The losses were amplified for some funds by a selloff in inflation-linked securities that also caught Bill Gross's $262 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX) off guard.

"This is just a foretaste of what is going to happen," said Ramin Nakisa, a global asset-allocation strategist at UBS Investment Bank who co-wrote a March research report titled "When Risk Parity Goes Wrong." Nakisa called June's selloff in Treasuries and inflation-linked bonds "a dress rehearsal" for the volatility awaiting when the U.S. Federal Reserve actually begins to taper its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing.

All Weather trimmed its use of leverage to about 144 percent of net assets at the end of June, according to the clients who requested anonymity. Gross exposures to different asset classes declined to about $116 billion from $138 billion in the quarter, while net assets stayed at $80 billion.
Reflections on Leverage

Lovely. All Weather now has a mere 144 percent leverage? What happens if stocks, bonds, and commodities all take a dive?

Here's the deal: This selloff in treasuries may be over. Or it may not be. Anyone who thinks they know is fooling themselves.

What I do know is leverage works both ways. I also know that the Fed has so distorted the economic horizon that it is next to impossible to predict what's coming down the pike.

Stocks, bonds, and commodities other than gold all rose in union over the past few years. My bet is on an unwinding of that trade.

I see no value in treasuries, no value in corporate bonds, no value in equities, and no value in municipal bonds.

I do see value in gold, so that is where I am. Without leverage. Patiently waiting.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Is Obamacare Really Responsible for Rise in Part-Time Employment? If So, Why Doesn't Average Weekly Hours Show Just That?

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:20 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are digging into average weekly hours of workers looking for Obamacare effects on which to place blame.

Average Weekly Hours Of Production And Nonsupervisory Employees



Since this data series began in 1964, the average weekly workweek has been trending lower.

Note the tendency following each recession. 1990-1998 is the only exception to the general rule that hours never recovered to the previous pre-recession level.

Last Five Observations

  • 2013-07: 33.6 Hours 
  • 2013-06: 33.7 Hours   
  • 2013-05: 33.7 Hours   
  • 2013-04: 33.7 Hours   
  • 2013-03: 33.8 Hours   

Lets' zero in to a tighter timeline for a closer look.



The second chart shows that in spite of Obamacare, average weekly hours has been bouncing between 33.6 and 33.8 for quite some time.

Several readers emailed such data is proof that Obamacare is not having the effect that I have repeatedly stated that it has.

They are wrong.

Just because hours have stabilized does not mean there is no Obamacare effect. It simply means some industries have not been impacted as much as others.  You just have to know where to look.

Focus on Home Centers, General Merchandise, Services for Elderly

Jed Graham at Investor's Business Daily highlights select areas in his report ObamaCare Fuels Sharp Workweek Drop In 4 Industries, while coming to the proper conclusion.
Anyone who insists ObamaCare employer penalties aren't having a meaningful impact on work hours simply hasn't looked closely at the evidence.

In a private economy with 114 million workers clocking 34.4 hours a week on average, it's easy to miss important changes. What feels like a wave to modest-wage workers getting hit may appear to be a mere ripple from an altitude of 40,000 feet.

After all, 1.4 million workers could lose an 8-hour shift and it would shave just six minutes off the average workweek. But if one looks closely, it's not hard to find industry groups with an unprecedented drop in work hours since ObamaCare became law.



Among retail bakeries, home-improvement stores and providers of social assistance to the elderly and disabled, the workweek for nonmanagers has fallen to record-low levels — by far.

At general merchandise stores, department stores and discounters, the rate at which the workweek has fallen since early 2012 is way off the charts relative to prior data going back to 1990.

The White House pointed to hours worked in the restaurant sector to disprove an ObamaCare impact, but the data don't support the claim. Because average hours worked are already below 25 hours, part-timers hired for 28 hours would raise the average.
Questions and Answers

Q: Why doesn't a chart of average weekly hours show the Obamacare effect?
A: It does. You just have to look in the right places.

Q: Is Obamacare responsible for the overall trend of declining workweek hours?
A: The workweek has been declining since the series began, so the answer must be no. However, Obamacare has indeed contributed to the trend as shown above.

Q: Is Obamacare to blame for rising part-time employment?
A: Yes

Obamacare Effects

For more on "Obamacare Effects", please see



As Jed Graham states "Anyone who insists ObamaCare employer penalties aren't having a meaningful impact on work hours simply hasn't looked closely at the evidence."

To which I would add ... the economic distortions go far beyond part-time employment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Philly Fed Misses Expectations; Industrial Production Unchanged; Manufacturing Declines; Treasury Yields Soar Anyway

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 10:33 AM PDT

Philly Fed Misses Expectations

Bloomberg reports Manufacturing in Philadelphia Regions Expands for Third Month
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to 9.3 this month from a reading of 19.8 in July that was the highest since March 2011. Readings greater than zero signal growth in the area, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

The median forecast of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a reading of 15. Estimates ranged from 7 to 23.
Industrial Production Unchanged

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region may be up, but overall manufacturing is negative while industrial production is unchanged for July.
Industrial production in the U.S. was unchanged in July as a slowdown at factories overshadowed an increase in mining.

The reading for output at factories, mines and utilities followed a 0.2 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than previously reported, a report from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 82 economists called for a 0.3 percent rise in July.

Manufacturing, which makes up 75 percent of total production, declined for the first time in three months.
Month-Over-Month Manufacturing Declines



Manufacturing is down month-over-month but only slightly. Let's look at some longer term trends in manufacturing and industrial production.

Industrial Production Percent Change From Year Ago



Manufacturing Percent Change From Year Ago



Trends are certainly weakening in manufacturing and industrial production.

Wal-Mart Cuts Profit Outlook

As noted earlier, Wal-Mart, Macy's, Kohl's Cut Profit Outlook; Cisco to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Blames Weak Economic Recovery.

With a weaker than expected Philly Fed, negative manufacturing, flat industrial production numbers, and a declining outlook at Wal-Mart and other retail stores, one might have thought treasury yields would drop.

Nonetheless, treasury yields rose, presumably on the assumption the Fed is still going to taper asset purchases starting next month and the economy will strengthen.

The first assumption is questionable, the latter is highly overoptimistic.

$TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield



$TYX 30-Year Treasury Yield



Yields Rise Significantly in Two Days

  • In the last two days Yield on the 30-Year long bond rose from 3.602% to as high as 3.837%, a rise of 23.5 basis points (nearly a quarter percentage point).
  • Yield on the 10-Year treasury note rose from 2.552% to as high as 2.821%, a significant rise of 26.9 basis points (over a quarter percentage point).

Curve Watchers Anonymous offers the following chart to help put things in proper perspective.

Yield Curve Historical Perspective



 click on chart for sharper image


  • $TYX: 30-Year Treasury Yield - Green
  • $TNX: 10-Year Treasury Yield - Orange
  • $FVX: 05-Year Treasury Yield - Blue
  • $IRX: 03-Mnth Treasury Yield - Brown


To understand the significance of this move higher in treasury yields, please see Mortgage Applications Decline 13th Time in 15 Weeks; Are Mortgage Rates Cheap? What's Next For Housing?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wal-Mart, Macy's, Kohl's Cut Profit Outlook; Cisco to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Blames Weak Economic Recovery

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 08:36 AM PDT

The earnings hit parade keeps on rolling, but not in the directions bulls wanted or expected. And with stocks priced well beyond perfection, today's reaction should hardly be a surprise. Yet, treasury yields soared once again in spite of poor earnings, and in spite of a flat industrial production report.

Wal-Mart, Macy's, Kohl's Cut Profit Outlook

Yahoo!Finance reports Wal-Mart cuts profit outlook on shopper worries
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. cut its annual profit and revenue outlook Thursday as the world's largest retailer expects a tough economy at home and abroad to continue to squeeze its low-income shoppers through the rest of the year.

Wal-Mart also reported second-quarter results that missed Wall Street estimates. The company's stock fell nearly 2 percent in premarket trading.

Wal-Mart's sober assessment of consumer spending adds to worries in earnings from Macy's Inc. and Kohl's Corp. Both lowered their expectations for the year after reporting disappointing results.

Wal-Mart said recent tax changes have further put pressure on its shoppers. Americans are dealing with a 2 percentage-point increase in payroll taxes that took effect Jan. 1. That means that take-home pay for a household earning $50,000 a year has been sliced by $1,000.

"The retail environment remains challenging in the U.S. and our international markets, as customers are cautious in their spending," Wal-Mart Chief Financial Officer Charles Holley said in a statement. He noted a "reluctance" among its customers to spend on discretionary items like flat-screen TVs.
Cisco to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Blames Weak Economic Recovery

The Wall Street Journal reports Cisco to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Blames Weak Economic Recovery.
Cisco Systems Inc. is once again tightening its belt, this time before bad news hits the bottom line.

The Silicon Valley network-equipment giant on Wednesday said it would cut 4,000 jobs, or 5% of its workforce, despite reporting an 18% jump in profit in the fourth fiscal quarter.

"What we see is slow steady improvement, but not at the pace we want," Mr. Chambers told analysts on a conference call.

While orders from customers in the Americas rose 5% in the fourth period, for example, orders from Asia declined 3%—and its business in China fell 6%.

Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., is best known for hardware that helps pump data to and around the Internet, selling both to communications carriers as well as other classes of companies. The performance of those mainstay businesses was mixed.

Revenue in Cisco's biggest segment, switching equipment, rose 5%. But sales were flat in the company's original business of routing gear.
Cisco may be a mixed bag, but the outlook for retailers certainly is not. Wal-Mart accounts for a whopping 10 percent of nonautomotive retail sales, and its outlook is telling. And once again interest rates are up across the US treasury curve which certainly will not be good for housing or jobs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com