vineri, 1 iulie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


SEO Interview Questions - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 02:05 PM PDT

Posted by Aaron Wheeler

 We've all been in difficult interview situations - you get a hard question and go on and on and on without giving a solid answer. In our realm, though, there are some SEO best practices that are so well established that everyone should know and be able to describe them to other people. If you're a business looking to hire an SEO (in-house, contractor, or otherwise), there's no better way to gauge an SEO's abilities than to ask them about basic SEO definitions and strategies. Similarly, SEOs looking for work should be prepared for a comprehensive interview that tests both their knowledge and their creative abilities. In this week's Whiteboard Friday, Rand talks about some of the questions that might come up in interviews for SEO positions and how to answer them (as well as discussing why interviewees should ask these questions). Have a good question for interviewers? Let us know in the comments!

 

Video Transcription

Howdy, SEOmoz fans. Welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're talking about SEO interview questions, how there are a lot of times in your professional life when you're going to be either interviewing someone who might be working with you on an SEO team inside your company, who might be contracting for you, perhaps a consultant, you're interview someone, you're the CMO or the VP of marketing and you want to know who all these SEO people know their stuff. It can actually be kind of tough to know what questions to ask unless you've got some background experience. Likewise if you are someone who might be interviewing for an SEO position, if you're someone who is a consultant and might be talking to some clients and you want to be prepared for the questions that they're going to throw at you, this Whiteboard Friday is for you.

So in the SEO interview process, the questions that I would ask, these are very SEO specific ones. So in every interview, particularly when you're bringing someone on to your team, you're going to asking questions about cultural fit and background and their biography, like what have they done in their past. Are they going to be a good fit for your team? Are they going to be able to handle the responsibilities? Does their work/life balance work with sort of organization you've got? I'm not going to talk about that stuff. I am going to talk about the very specific knowledge kinds of things that you want to use with an SEO or that you want to be prepared for as an SEO when you're going into these types of discussions.

So the first general section, the section that I start with is general knowledge. This is a great way to feel out whether someone is comfortable and capable. I would use these, honestly if we were doing this, I would be using these on phone screens or maybe even in the interview process, like right in the form field just to get a sense, like, "Does this person have a good sense of SEO? Do they know things like, what's a rel=canonical? What does it do? How does it work? How do search engines treat the meta refresh? What's an image title versus an alt attribute?" So you've got different properties of a particular graphic or an image, and you want to know that the SEO person understands. "Yeah, I know that image title describes the image, but it isn't necessarily being used by search engines to the same degree that the alt attribute is. It doesn't show up when you hover in Firefox. It's not going to become the image label in Google image search, those kinds of things, versus the alt attribute that gets used as anchor text when the image links off to somewhere. So those kinds of things.

You might even have a question like, "How do you remove personalization from search results?" What you want to see is somebody goes, "Oh, yeah, yeah, it's google.com/search?Q=whatever the search term is &pws=0." You find someone who can write off search strings and tell you, "How do I change the country language code?" "Well, you just add in &gl=uk. To get the UK or 'us' to get the US." You want to see that sort of knowledge that indicates that they're really deep into the process of doing SEO. They live and breathe this stuff. They know it like the back of their hand. That's what you want to see from an SEO, and this general knowledge section is a great way to get a sense of that.

Now next up, I like to get a little deeper and understand a person's thought process and be able to explain your thought process to somebody else. That's why we have a section on strategy and tactics. So this is asking questions that will elicit a response that indicates to you how well this person can really do the functions of SEO. A lot of this general knowledge stuff they should have a good background, but if they miss a few of these questions, it's fine. They can always go learn them. They can go look them up. They'll figure it out, it's okay. But you really want to know things like, "Do they understand how to run a keyword research campaign? Do they understand how to run link building? Do they understand what's involved in a content strategy? What does that mean? It doesn't just mean a blog, does it?" It's all sorts of different things.

So I like asking broad questions like, "How would you create a site to rank for give them a keyword or a set of keywords?" Like, "I am getting into the men's fashion industry. Just imagine for me, brainstorm with me a site that's going to perform really well in men's fashion." And if you hear things like, "Well, I would like to build a site that naturally incents lots of creators, lots of designers of clothing, and lots of brands to put their stuff on our site. So it will be a big important site where lots of people will come to. They'll put their stuff up and they'll essentially promote it for us, but we have a lot of unique form fields and unique content that they have to fill out so that the content itself is unique and it doesn't just look like the manufacturer's suggested description across everything else, because we don't want to have duplicate content problems." That's shows some level of depth in terms of thinking. It gives you a sense of how they'll tackle problems.

You can ask questions like, "What are some of your favorite scalable link building tactics?" And if they say something like, "Well, I really like contacting webmasters." No, like, "Nope, you're clearly missing this word scalable and also probably favorite, because nobody really likes contacting webmasters." That's the least fun part the SEO's link building job. But if they say things like, "Well, I really like building up popular social accounts," or, "I like running a blog and building up content to attract a community," those are pretty good answers. If they say things like, "I really think that content syndication or image licensing or badges and embeddable widgets is a great link building strategy that's scalable," those are great answers. You want to hear that kind of stuff.

"How would you get video content into Google?" More of a tactical question, but it gives you a sense of some of the knowledge and then how they do it. So if you hear a question like that and the person gives you a response and they say, "Well, Google has this video protocol." All right, they do, Google does have a video protocol. But what you really want to hear is, "Oh, it's great! What I like to do is make content using YouTube or Wistia or Vimeo," or whatever it is, whatever their preferred video hosting service of choice is and let them tell you why that is, "and then embed it on our pages and we use the video XML sitemaps feed to send to Google so that appears as rich snippets in the search results." Perfect, this person clearly understands the tactical knowledge, and maybe they don't even know how to craft it. I don't know how to write a video XML sitemap. I couldn't start writing you the protocols from scratch, but I can go find it online and copy what Google suggests it needs to be. I just need to have the knowledge of how to do that.

So that strategy and tactics section, also really important.

Last up. I do like to ask about some tools and metrics because this can give you a great sense of both an SEO's depth as well as they way they think about a lot of problems. Because the field of SEO, granted, is some art, some science, and a lot of research and learning and trying new things, the tools and metrics, the statistics that we use, the correlation data kinds of things, the link data that comes out of Yahoo Site Explorer, or Bing Webmaster tools, or the Google link command, or Exalead, or Majestic SEO, or SEOmoz, you want to know that they've got a good grasp on, "Oh, here's all the ways that I could potentially get that data and here's why I like this one and I don't like this one. I like the Bing or the MSN Ad Center or the keyword tool. I don't like the Google keyword tool. I really don't like some keyword tool here, but I think Keyword Spy's great or SpyFu is awesome," or whatever it is. And you want to know, not just what those tools are, but how do they evaluate them.

That gives you a really good sense for how that person thinks about problems, how they're going to attack things, whether they're a critical thinker or whether they just take things on face value, which in the SEO world is not a great idea. Like even the things that I might be telling you on Whiteboard Fridays, you probably want to verify for yourself. So things like, "What data would you use to use to judge the value of a link?" And you want to hear things like, "Well, I'd try and gets some metrics around how important the domain is, how important that specific page is. I'd try and get some metrics about where is that link going to be placed, what sort anchor text will it use, how many other links are on that page, where do they point to, or they spammy or manipulative, or are they good and authentic?" Those kinds of things. "What tools do you use to measure competitors' keywords and traffic?" And if they tell you, "Well, I really like this SpyFu or KeyCompete, or some of these other ones, Compete.com has a competitive intelligence tool. Hitwise has one, very enterprise level." Hey, yeah, those are good ways to measure keywords.

On the traffic question, if they say, "Well, I really like, Alexa." I'd be like, "You do? Why do you like Alexa? What do you find useful about it?" There are good answers, which is, "Well, for the top 1,000 or 5,000 sites on the Web, Alexa's pretty good at saying what the relative difference is between them." Which is relatively true, most of the time at least. But for those sites in the tail, sites in the midrange, Alexa's terrible. You kind of want to hear, "Well, none of the data sources are particularly excellent, but I like to look at Google Trends for websites, or Compete.com, or I like to look at Quantcast. I like to compare across the set. But I really like to look at maybe how many people are subscribing to their blog through Google Reader. That's a great signal." It's let's you know that person is thinking more deeply about these questions.

"How do you measure social activity on a site?" That's more of a broad based question. Like, "Do you just track tweets? Do you have some sort of an analytics tracking? What do you set up for that? Are you using something simple like a shared count? Do you have a statistics dashboard? Would you be using a Twitter client to be measuring that?" Whatever they've got.

If you ask these questions or you can answer these questions, I think you're going to do a lot to cement a good relationship between things. If you're in SEO right now and you're thinking to yourself, "Boy, I'm not sure I can answer all those questions that Rand had on the board," I mean, these aren't the toughest things that'll get tossed at you at an interview. They shouldn't be definitely. So you might want to spend some time having good answers to these questions, thinking hard about these things, researching them. And likewise, if you're an employer or a contractor and you're trying to find SEO people to work for you, do consulting work, you definitely want to amass a good set of these. I would actually recommend trying to ask relatively consistently again and again with the same people because having that consistency between questions let's you really grade people on the same level. If you change up your questions every time, it can get tough to remember how well a candidate might have done against another one.

All right, everyone. I hope you've enjoyed this addition of Whiteboard Friday. I hope you're going to find some great jobs and some great SEOs, and I look forward to seeing you again next time. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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#AskObama at the First Ever Twitter @Townhall at the White House

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, July 1st, 2011
  #AskObama at the First Ever Twitter @Townhall at the White House

The White House is all a-Twitter about an exciting event that's happening next week. On Wednesday, July 6th at 2pm ET, President Obama will answer your questions in the first ever Twitter Town Hall at the White House, and you're invited. Tweet your questions about jobs and the economy using the hashtag #AskObama.

Learn more and get involved.

West Wing Week: "Magic Mountains and Volcanoes" 

Welcome to the West Wing Week, your guide to everything that's happening at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. This week, The President spoke about innovation in Pittsburgh, PA, visited an advanced manufacturing facility in Iowa, held a news conference in the East Room and welcomed champion soccer and basketball teams to the White House. That's June 24th to June 30th or "Magic Mountains and Volcanoes."

Watch the video 

  

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Bringing Transparency to College Costs
Melody Barnes, Director of the Domestic Policy Council, emphasizes the new College Transparency and Affordability Center as the one of the first steps in helping students better understand their path in postsecondary education.

Opening Doors for our Military Spouses
Dr. Jill Biden joins military spouses, corporate leaders and military officials to launch the Military Spouse Employment Partnership.

How To Make Change Series
The White House is holding a serious of events called "How to Make Change" based on your feedback during the “Your Future, Your Solutions” 100 Roundtables Initiative. "How to Make Change" will focus on effecting change, and on specific issues that matter to youth.


Today's Schedule 

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

10:15 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:45 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

4:30 PM: The President departs the South Lawn en route Camp David


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What is the Best Time of Day to Tweet Graywolf's SEO Blog

What is the Best Time of Day to Tweet Graywolf's SEO Blog


What is the Best Time of Day to Tweet

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 10:39 AM PDT

Post image for What is the Best Time of Day to Tweet

Once you have gotten past the hurdle of getting followers on Twitter, chances are good that you will want to know what is the best time to push out your content-marketing tweets or commercially-oriented tweets. I recently came across a tool that analyzes your Twitter followers and tries to give you some statistics to help you find the best time to send out those tweets.

The key is to find a way to balance being on Twitter, being involved in your community, sharing links, and meeting your content marketing goals…
Before I dig into this topic, I want to address any concerns from the social media unicorns and rainbows crowd. Just because you know when your tweets are going to reach the highest audience doesn’t mean that’s the only time you should be on Twitter. This is social media, and it requires you to be social at some point. There are exceptions: big brands and news accounts can operate in broadcast only mode but, for most accounts, community interaction is required if you want to get the greatest value out of Twitter. That’s not to say that you should spend all day on Twitter. That’s rarely cost effective. The key is to find a way to balance being on Twitter, being involved in your community, sharing links, and meeting your content marketing goals.

If you visit the website Tweriod.com, it will ask you to authenticate your account (pretty standard at this point). Then it will analyze your last 5,000 followers and come up with information about when they are online. It gives you quite a bit of data, but I’ll highlight the most important bit in this graph.

Online Follower Graph from Tweriod.com

There are two important points I want to bring up. First, it’s only analyzing my last 5,000 followers. Since I’m just shy of 15K followers at the time this post was written, that means 2/3 of my networked isn’t being analyzed. Second, the oldest 1/3 of the people following me is probably the section of my followers I interact with the most. This may or may not be something you need to take into consideration for your account.

To be honest I don’t know what causes that spike on Monday nights, so I’m going to say it’s a data anomaly and ignore it since it’s not my peak time anyway. It doesn’t come as a huge surprise to me that the people who follow me are at their peak from 11-6 EST. I’ve been involved in Internet marketing for a long time, and people have been shopping/browsing/interacting while they are supposed to have been working for as long as I can remember.

The two high points of 11am and 4pm did surprise me a little, as I typically get more conversation around 1-2pm, but it’s not out of left field. Now, if I were going to use this data to push out a commercial message, I would use a Twitter scheduling tool like Hootsuite or Bufferapp and schedule my tweets for 11-ish AM and 4-ish PM the same day or subsequent day depending on the tweet’s importance. Social media experts tend to look down at repeating tweets, but it works.

I don’t recommend that you blindly follow one source of data though. Bufferapp and Hootsuite also come with reporting tools to let you know how many clicks and retweets you got. However, if you really want to get more reliable data, I would suggest adding hashtags to your url before shortening it. Using hashtags gives you a much more accurate result. Use hashtags, not querystring parameters, and make sure you have the canonical tag in place to lessen the chance that a search engine will screw something up. For more info on using hashtags, read this post on URLs, social media and campaign tracking from Joost de Valk.

So what are the takeaways on this post on Choosing the Best Time of Day to Tweet

  • Use tools like Tweriod to analyze your followers and find the times for peak visibility.
  • Be aware of the 5,000 follower limit and any other data that doesn’t make sense.
  • Look for the intra-day high points and repeat your tweet on the same or following days.
  • Use hashtags to create unique URL’s for maximum tracking before using URL shorteners.
  • Based on the data you get, experiment with variations, but don’t make judgements on just one set of data.

photo credit: Photospin

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Related posts:

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  2. How to Get More Followers on Twitter Getting more Twitter followers is one of the first hurdles...
  3. Twitter Contests and Incentives – Do they Work A few weeks ago I made the mistake of wondering...
  4. What Social Signals Might Search Engines Use Late last year both Google and Bing announced they are...
  5. Are Search Engines Using ClickStream Data Recently there was a big kerfuffle over Bing copying Google...

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This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis Wordpress Theme review.

What is the Best Time of Day to Tweet

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10 New Google Tools, Products and Services Every Business Person Has to Know About

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:29 AM PDT

One of the few products Google doesn’t offer yet*

It seems Google wants to inundate us with new tools, products and services these days. Is this a way to divert attention away from all the bad news about antitrust lawsuits, the FTC and the like? I don’t know. In any case, there are lots of new tools to test.

Many of these will have a huge impact on search and the Web as a whole in future.

Others mights seem less noteworthy at first, but they underscore the long term Google strategy which focuses on social, mobile and HTML5 among others.

Either way, I assume that every business person has to know about these tools, as there are plenty of opportunities here and in some cases also pitfalls.

 

 

Google+

Google+ is a fully fledged social network that Google has started to compete against Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. It consists of several services in itself, including groups, chats etc.

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/introducing-google-project-real-life.html

http://searchengineland.com/googles-facebook-competitor-the-google-social-network-finally-arrives-83401

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/06/inside-google-plus-social/

 

Google +1 (button for websites, worldwide in search)

Google +1 is the Google ”like” button. You can now find it in search results, on websites that include the button, as browser extensions and in most Google products (Blogger, Youtube, Shopping Search etc).

 

WDYL (What Do You Love)

WDYL is a personalised interest hub for Google users that lets you combine most of Google services around your favourite subjects.

http://www.wdyl.com/

 

Google Web Fonts V2

Google Web Fonts allow webmasters to replace their boring web safe headlines with some more appealing free fonts. Also, the Google Web Fonts are faster than some of the older font replacement techniques. The new version, V2, is far sleeker than the old one. I’m not sure about the user experience though.

http://www.google.com/webfonts/v2

 

Social interaction tracking in Google Webmaster Tools and Analytics

While many people provided JavaScripts to track Google +1 votes in Google Analytics, the tracking wasn’t easy to use and wasn’t very insightful in most cases. Now Google has not only launched built-in Google +1 tracking in both Google Analytics and Google Webmaster Tools, but also allows tracking of other social sites such as Facebook, Twitter or Delicious. This requires additional coding though.

http://analytics.blogspot.com/2011/06/1-reporting-in-google-webmaster-tools.html

http://www.google.com/support/analyticshelp/bin/answer.py?topic=1316551&answer=1316556&&hl=en

 

Postrank (Analytics)

Postrank has been one of the best known tools for measuring the social impact of one’s posts. It also provided a great social media analytics tool. Google has acquired the service and stopped sign ups.

While in Google Analytics and Google Webmaster Tools, you need some coding to track your social media performance. Postrank just makes you verify your social accounts and lets you add a URL. I hope Google won’t neglect Postrank like they did with Feedburner.

http://www.postrank.com/

 

Google Offers (Groupon alternative for daily deals)

Google Offers may be the biggest news of all the news services when it comes to business. Google Offers is a Groupon competitor focusing on daily deals.

http://www.google.com/offers/business/

 

Authorship attribution

In HTML5 you can use so-called microformats to indicate that you’re the author of a posting or article across different websites. Using a meta tag and your Google Profile where you connect your websites and blogs, this will make content creators recognisable across web properties and inside search results.

http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2011/06/highlighting-content-creators-in-search.html

http://www.google.com/support/webmasters/bin/answer.py?answer=1229920&&hl=en

 

Google Swiffy (tool for converting Flash files to HTML5)

This little tool may have a huge impact. It allows you to convert Flash files to HTML5. I don’t know how good the outcome is, but even the idea of being able to adapt your Flash content to the modern Web is a clear sign of the times.

http://swiffy.googlelabs.com/

 

Google Sites mobile landing pages

One of Google’s main focuses is the mobile Web. Google Sites, the search giant’s own website editor for starters, has added a mobile option to make these websites mobile friendly.

http://googlemobileads.blogspot.com/2011/06/mobile-ize-your-business-with-google.html

 

 

Have you tried these tools already? What do you think about this unparalleled wave of new services Google has been announcing recently? Does Google want to cover our every need on the Web? How do you plan to use these tools for your business purposes?

 

* Image by missha

© SEOptimise - Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. 10 New Google Tools, Products and Services Every Business Person Has to Know About

Related posts:

  1. 50+ Advanced Web Analytics Tools for Business Use [2010 Edition]
  2. Everything Webmasters Need to Know About the Google +1 Button for Websites
  3. 30 Social Search Tools & SEO Resources for Power Users

Seth's Blog : "Why wasn't I informed?"

"Why wasn't I informed?"

Information is tricky. Sometimes it's delivered to you. Often, you need to go find it.

There's no blame in not being aware of something you had no idea you ought to be looking for. If you've been using the same brand of aftershave for five years, you're forgiven for not Googling it regularly to find out if it contains a carcinogen. That's information we'd like to come find us, not something we need to be on the alert for.

On the other hand, I'm stunned when someone enters new territory without doing a modicum of research. Consider the yutz who goes on vacation to a foreign land, only to discover on arrival that they're in the middle of monsoon season (happens every year around this time!) or that there's a civil war going on.

Or perhaps the small businessperson who launches an expensive marketing campaign without investing a few hours in reading up on what works and what doesn't.

Or the email novice who forwards an incredible email to her entire address list without checking Snopes first.

The rules are now clear: no one is going to inform you, but it's easier than ever to inform yourself. Before you spend the money, the time or the attention of your friends, look it up.

 

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joi, 30 iunie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Managing Director of Sovereign Ratings at S&P on Possible US Debt Downgrade to "D" Default if Debt Ceiling Not Raised

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 03:34 PM PDT

John Chambers, managing director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's, talks about the outlook for U.S. lawmakers to reach an agreement to raise the debt limit and avoid an S&P downgrade of the sovereign top-level AAA ranking on the U.S. to D.



Select Quotes

  • If any government doesn't pay its debt on time, the rating of that government goes to D
  • We are talking about the sovereign rating of the US government
  • If you get to the situation where the government hasn't paid its debt, you will have very serious disruptions throughout the money markets, in the repo markets, the foreign exchange markets and the bond market.
  • It will be much more chaotic than September 2008 [collapse of Lehman].
  • This also supports our view this will not happen. The policy makers will understand that.
  • They [the government] can prioritize payments and that would not be a default by definition. However, you would have to contract payments in a massive way overnight. And that would have a very sharp negative fiscal impulse to the economy
  • Government has raised the debt ceiling 78 times, many times at the 11th hour but later on the month of July, Democrats and Republicans will reach a compromise.

It is interesting to see the statement "policy makers will understand". We are talking about Congress here.

One could equally say "we are talking about the S&P raters here".

Either way I am hoping there will be no compromise. The more government spending is cut, the better off taxpayers will be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Plunge on Crop Report; Inflation, Interest Rate Outlook

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 10:14 AM PDT

Grain futures are sharply lower across the board as traders had positioned themselves for shortages because of Midwest flooding and increasing demand from emerging markets and China.

Instead, corn stocks were 11 percent bigger than analysts expected and a bumper crop could be on the way according to the report.

Please consider Grain markets plunge on US acres, stocks
The U.S. corn supply is far larger than thought and a bumper crop could be on the way, the Agriculture Department said on Thursday in a report that shocked traders and shoved grain markets sharply lower.

Farmers defied expectations by planting significantly more corn acres despite rain and floods, and sky-high prices curbed demand which left June 1 stockpiles 11 percent larger than traders had predicted.

The dramatic turnaround from fears of bare-bones supplies could signal comfortable supply levels for the coming year and ease fears about high world food prices.

"American producers stepped up," [USDA's] Vilsack told Reuters Insider.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, corn for July delivery was down 10 percent, or 72 cents per bushel, at $6.26 in morning trade, and deferred contracts were locked down the limit of 30 cents per bushel. The July contract is in its delivery period and trading without limits.

July wheat was down 8 percent, or 49 cents, to $5.92-1/4. July soybeans were down 1 percent, or 19 cents, to $13.15-1/4.

Red-hot demand from corn exporters, livestock feeders and processors had been expected to consume every bushel grown in 2010 and eat into reserves, but the higher stocks number was a sign that demand has been rationed.

"We planted more acres than the trade had thought earlier in the year because we sent the signal to plant," said analyst Don Roose of U.S. Commodities. "The other thing was, we did find a way to slow down usage."

The USDA said the corn stockpile was 3.67 billion bushels on June 1, and it pegged plantings at 92.28 million acres. With normal weather and yields, a record-large crop could be harvested.

The soybean stockpile was 4 percent larger than anticipated by analysts, although plantings were 2 percent smaller. The soybean crop would still be the third-largest on record, but supplies are expected to run tight for another year.

Wheat stocks were 4 percent larger than traders expected and plantings were down marginally.

The USDA reports imply that corn growers would harvest 13.5 billion bushels of corn, which would be a record, and 3.2 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the third-largest on record. Both estimates are Reuters' calculations and assume normal weather conditions and yields.

A mammoth crop would fatten the corn stockpile to nearly 1 billion bushels, but soybeans would run tight through fall 2012.
Grain Futures



December corn was limit down 30 cents. However, front month contracts are in delivery warning period and there is no limit. Those playing front-month contracts on expectations of a lousy crop report were massacred.

Corn Daily Chart




Inflation Outlook

With crude prices falling and corn hammered, expect the next set of CPI figures to be tame.

Bear in mind I do not consider prices to be a valid measure of inflation. Oil rising because of peak oil has nothing to do with inflation. Nor does rising grain prices based on flooding. Nor does demand from China have anything to do with inflation in the US.

Thus, this plunge has nothing to do with inflation or deflation either.

Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena. As far as inflation goes, these price movements are noise. However, for those who think price is what matters, prices are headed down.

Interest Rate Outlook

If oil and food prices continue to drop, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet may change his tune on rate hikes. Of course Trichet will be out of the picture soon as his term expires in October.

In the US, the Bernanke Fed got another signal to keep rates excessively low.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Obama-Pimco Fear-Mongering Duet Chants More Sour Notes

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 09:11 AM PDT

The Obama-Pimco fear-mongering duet is chanting the same sour notes again today. This time the spotlight is on the president.

Bloomberg reports Obama Assails Republicans as Gulf in U.S. Debt-Limit Talks Remains Wide
President Barack Obama accused Republicans of siding with corporate jet owners over children and the elderly in deficit negotiations and compared Congress's work ethic unfavorably with that of his pre-teen daughters.

Obama's comments underscored the distance between the White House and Republicans on talks to cut the deficit and raise the government's debt limit as Standard & Poor's warned it would downgrade U.S. debt to junk status in the event of a default and the Senate canceled its July 4 recess to continue talking.

"The yellow light is flashing," Obama said yesterday during a news conference, warning of dire consequences if Congress doesn't raise the borrowing limit before Aug. 2, when the Treasury Department projects it will no longer be able to meet all its obligations.

"This is a jobs issue," he said. "This is not an abstraction. If the United States government, for the first time, cannot pay its bills, if it defaults, then the consequences for the U.S. economy will be significant and unpredictable."

If the U.S. misses a payment on its debt because Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling in time, Standard & Poor's would cut the U.S. credit rating from its sovereign top-level AAA ranking to D, the last rung on its scale, said John Chambers, chairman of the company's sovereign rating committee.

Obama cast the differences in moral terms. "Before we ask our seniors to pay more for health care, before we cut our children's education," he said, "it's only fair to ask an oil company or a corporate jet owner that has done so well to give up that tax break that no other business enjoys."

House Speaker John Boehner rebuffed him, saying in a statement issued soon afterward that Obama "is sorely mistaken if he believes a bill to raise the debt ceiling and raise taxes would pass the House. The votes simply aren't there, and they aren't going to be there."

Senator Tom Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican who last month dropped out of a bipartisan group of senators trying to reach a deficit-reduction deal, said on PBS's "The Charlie Rose Show" on June 28 that it is increasingly likely House Republicans won't act on the debt limit by the Aug. 2 deadline.

"If we don't have major changes to entitlements, I don't see how you get that vote through the House," Coburn said.
Obama Sings the Pimco "Unpredictable" Note

Obama is singing the same tune as Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian who said "We would be in the land of the unpredictable if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling".

Like the president, El-Erian is singing his book. For details, please see "Land of the Predictable": Pimco CEO Warns U.S. Debt Default Might Have "Catastrophic" Effect

As noted previously, president Obama is a hypocrite.

President Obama's Hypocrisy

Inquiring minds just may be interested in knowing Obama's track record on debt ceilings when he was Senator Obama.
The Obama administration is warning of catastrophic consequences if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling, the legal limit on how much the federal government can borrow, but Barack Obama held a different view on the issue as a senator in 2006.

Five years ago, then-Sen. Obama (D-Ill.) voted against raising the debt ceiling and even spoke about it on the Senate floor before the Republican-controlled Senate voted 52-48 to increase it.

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure," Obama said on March 16, 2006. "Leadership means that 'the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit."
Failure of Leadership

I remind the president "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

Expect Duet to Grow to Mormon Tabernacle Choir Size

As we approach the deadline, expect the duet to grow in size. To be fair, there are a more than a handful of fear-mongers already. Ben Bernanke wants Congress to do something about the deficit, just not now. So does the IMF. Other Fed governors have chimed in with similar statements already.

Yellow Light is Flashing

I agree with the president that a "yellow light is flashing". The president however, does not understand the meaning. The light is flashing because the time to do something about the budget deficit is now.

Please disregard the self-serving fear-mongering of president Obama and Pimco CEO El-Erian. Americans deserve better, and the way to do that is to act responsibly on a deficit-reduction package now, not 10 years from now.

Phone your Congressional representative and let them know what you think.

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Weekly Unemployment Claims Exceed 400,000 12th Consecutive Week, Exceed 420,000 Nine out of last 10 Weeks

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:10 AM PDT

The labor market remains stuck in the mud since April second, the last time seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims fell below 400,000.

Initial Unemployment Claims For 2011



Please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 428,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 429,000. The 4-week moving average was 426,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 426,250.



The recovery is now 2 full years old. Yet, the 4-week moving average of weekly claims remains an elevated 426,750.

4-Week Moving Average of Weekly Claims



The 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at or above recession levels.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List