duminică, 9 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Gallup Poll Visualizes Effect of Obamacare

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 08:47 PM PST

Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3% for November, up nearly one percentage-point over October's rate. Gallup's underemployment jumped from 15.9% to 17.2%.

The Gallup survey, which polls approximately 30,000 people monthly, was radically different from the BLS report  that came out a day later.

Please consider the Gallup economic report U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up.
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October's rate.



Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.



The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October. The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work. Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.
Obamacare Responsible?

Gallup did not offer reasons for this shift but I suspect two.

  1. Large numbers of part-time workers were hired as a direct result of Obamacare in September and October.
  2. Additional seasonal workers were hired early.


For more on Obamacare and the effect on jobs, please see



Note the sudden huge divergence between Gallup and the BLS. The Obamacare theory, even if correct, still fails to explain that divergence.

In the BLS report, the labor force magically shrunk by 350,000 artificially lowering the unemployment rate. No such thing happened in the Gallup survey for the unemployment rate to blast .9 percentage points higher.

Regardless of "why", if the latest Gallup survey is correct, expect to see jumps in the BLS unemployment rate in the coming months.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gallup Reports Upper-Income Spending Worst November Ever

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 09:53 AM PST

With the generally upbeat spending reports on black Friday and cyber-Monday, Gallup paints a different point of view in its most recent poll that shows U.S. Consumer Spending Holds Steady, Consistent With 2011
Americans' self-reported daily spending averaged $73 in November, essentially on par with September and October. It is also similar to the $71 Americans spent last November and slightly higher compared with November 2010 and 2009 -- but still much lower than in November 2008.

November 2012 vs. November Prior Years



U.S. Upper-Income Spending Sees Worst November on Record

Upper-income Americans' (defined as those making at least $90,000 per year) self-reported daily spending was lower this November -- an average of $113 -- than in any November dating back to 2008. Upper-income spending has been trending downward since September, although the decline has not been large enough to drag down the overall spending figures.



Lower-income Americans' spending in November -- an average of $61 -- is on par with the $60 they spent last November. Lower-income spending is generally quite stable from month to month and has been holding steady since March.

Bottom Line

Although November marks the beginning of the holiday season -- generally a time for spending and splurging -- Americans did not spend any more than usual this November, and upper-income Americans appear to be spending less than usual. Americans' self-reported spending in November is on par with November 2011, matching Gallup's finding that Americans predict they will spend about as much on holiday gifts this year as they did last year.
Note that both charts paint a different picture of holiday spending in the recovery. Spending levels did not recover to pre-recession levels, at least as reported in Gallup surveys.What consumers actually spend vs. what they report to Gallup might not be the same thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Beggars can't be choosers

 

Beggars can't be choosers

If you'd rather be a chooser, enter a market or a transaction where you have something to trade, something of value, something to offer that's difficult to get everywhere else. 

If all you have is the desire to get picked, that's not sufficient.



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sâmbătă, 8 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Mine-Sniffing Dolphins Lose Their Jobs to Robots; Sea Lion Jobs Safe for Now

Posted: 08 Dec 2012 04:13 PM PST

It takes seven years to train dolphins to sniff for mines and explosives, and it also takes a skilled human trainer to teach the dolphins. It's not hard to figure out where this story is headed.

Please consider Navy dolphins, sea lions losing out to robots.
Like the factory worker and travel agent before them, some Navy dolphins trained to hunt down mines are scheduled to be replaced by computers in five years.

However, the Navy's marine mammals aren't going away. Military-trained dolphins and sea lions will continue to be used for port security and retrieving objects from the sea floor — jobs they are still better at than machines.

The Navy's $28 million marine mammal program, headquartered in San Diego, uses 80 bottle-nosed dolphins and 40 California sea lions.

Armed by Mother Nature with superb eyesight, sophisticated sonar and the ability to dive 500 feet without the bends, these creatures have been deployed to Iraq and Bahrain during the post-Sept. 11 wars to keep ports safe for American ships.

They patrol for enemy divers. They ping mines and mark the location for handlers. It's a program that goes back to naval research started in the late 1950s that once included killer whales and sharks.

But now Navy officials say that an unmanned underwater vehicle — a 12-foot torpedo-shaped robot — can do the some of the same mine-hunting jobs. And the machines can be manufactured quickly, unlike the seven years it takes to train a dolphin for duty.

Dolphins will be reassigned to other tasks, a Navy official said. Sea lion jobs are safe.

"We are certain that there's going to be fewer mine-hunting dolphins," said Mike Rothe, head of the biosciences division at the Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific in San Diego.

"About a quarter of (the Navy dolphins) would be affected. But it's not like they are going to go jobless. We have other assignments," he said.
Sea Lion Jobs Safe for Now

Sea lions are better than robots at attaching claw-like devices to swimmer's legs (think of a "boot" attached to a car with too many parking tickets). Navy security forces then reel in the invader.

Sea lions are also better than robots at attaching devices to inert missiles on the ocean floor.

Robots to Rule World?

For more on robots and jobs please consider Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?

More Robot Articles



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Michigan Passes Right-to-Work Legislation; Email from Canadian Teacher Threatened With $500 Fines Per Day for Not Picketing; Collective Bargaining vs. Company Store

Posted: 08 Dec 2012 09:46 AM PST

Right-to-Work provisions are at long last coming to Michigan. Reuters reports 'right-to-work' law exempts existing union contracts

  • Right-to-Work could be approved within a week
  • Stunning blow to organized labor
  • Immediate impact blunted by "grandfather" clause
  • Opponents vow to overturn new law

The proposed Michigan "right-to-work" law will not apply to existing union contracts, a leading sponsor of the proposal said on Friday, which may blunt its immediate impact on the huge auto industry in the state.

Michigan Republicans pushed through the state legislature on Thursday a law making the payment of union dues voluntary in the private sector. The state Senate also voted to apply this to the public sector except for police and fire unions.

Republican lawmakers, who hold majorities in both chambers of the legislature, could give final approval to the laws on Tuesday and Republican Governor Rick Snyder could immediately sign them, Amber McCann, spokeswoman for state Senate Majority Leader Richard Richardville, said on Friday.

"Right-to-work" could be signed into law within a week in the cradle of the U.S. auto industry, a stunning blow to organized labor in the United States.

The law would actually take effect at the end of March, Richardville said on Thursday.
Step in Right Direction

This is certainly a big step in  the right direction, but much more needs to be done. I am not concerned about the grandfather clause because eventually those contracts will be picked up.

I am concerned about caving into police and fire unions because those bloated workforces have the most egregious wage structures and pension plans.

Right to Work States

This graph from the National Right-to-Work Committee will soon need to be updated (with an * denoting exceptions for police and fire unions)



Canadian Teacher Threatened With $500 Fines Per Day for Not Picketing

A couple days ago I received an email from "CT" a "Canadian Teacher" who was threatened with huge fines if he did not picket. "CT" writes" ...
Hello Mish,

I am a regular reader of your blog.  I appreciate the candid and insightful analysis you provide concerning today's turbulent economic times.

I'm writing because I have a bit of a problem. I am a grade 8 teacher in Ontario, Canada.  The ETFO (elementary teacher's federation of Ontario) will be participating in a series of one day strikes over the next few weeks to protest Bill 115 (the bill basically ends collective bargaining and public union right to strike).

I will not be participating (Bill 115 seems good to me). That means crossing the line when the strike actually happens (next week). As you can imagine, the heat is on, including threats to be fined $500 for every day I do not participate.

Some of my colleagues have come to me privately and admire the stance I'm taking, but will not admit so publicly. I was wondering, could you send me some more arguments I could use for the "discussions" I'll be having over the next few weeks?

I've already outlined how collective bargaining isn't a right, how I'd be happy to negotiate my own contract, and how our union has helped bankrupt the province.

Perhaps send me some links to earlier articles you wrote on the subject, etc.

Would greatly appreciate the help, because the flames are rising and I need more extinguishers.

"CT"
Collective Bargaining neither a Privilege nor a Right

Congratulations to "CT" for being courageous to stand up to slave-masters. That is what union organizers are. They tell you what you can or cannot do with your time. Worse yet, they even dictate what others can or cannot do with their time.

For example, can people volunteer to clean your school? I suspect most would say no because it would take a union job. Such restrictions on how you spend your free time, especially if you have to join a union involuntarily, are a form of slavery. So is inability to work for yourself if you want to.

I have written about this many times. Please consider this snip from Collective Bargaining neither a Privilege nor a Right
Five Ways Collective Bargaining Tramples Various Unalienable Rights

  1. Collective bargaining agreements take away the right of individuals to pursue a career of their dreams void of union affiliation
  2. Collective bargaining agreements force individuals into organizations against the free will of those members
  3. Collective bargaining agreements force union dues out of members who do not even want to belong
  4. Collective bargaining agreements dictate what members can and cannot do with their free time.
  5. Collective bargaining agreements even dictate what non-members can and cannot do with their free time!

Example of Point Number Four

Union firefighters are frequently prohibited from being volunteer fire department workers for their city.

Example of Point Number Five

Union rules prohibit volunteers from helping schools paint, trim shrubbery, answer phones, clean blackboards, etc. The absurdity of such pro-union, anti-taxpayer arrangements should be self-evident.

Right to Pursue Happiness

Unions have no right to deprive others of their "unalienable right" to pursue happiness.

If it makes people happy to volunteer time, that "unalienable right" must not be stripped away by unions or politicians and their self-serving goals.

The alleged collective bargaining "rights" of unions were attained over the years via tactics of coercion, bribery, fear-mongering, and vote-buying. Regardless of how attained, even in good-faith, politicians have no right to take away "unalienable Rights".

Unions insist they won the rights to collective bargaining through negotiation. That is as impossible as whites negotiating rights to own blacks or to tell blacks where they can sit on a bus.

There is no right or even privilege that can make people slaves. There is no right or privilege to tell people what they can or cannot do with their free time. There is no right or privilege to collect dues from members forced into an organization against their will. There is no right or privilege that can force someone into a union, otherwise stripping them of the ability to pursue the career of their dreams.

The Issue is Unalienable Rights

Rights of unions must not and cannot be allowed to interfere on the rights of others to NOT belong to a union and to NOT pay union dues if they do not want to.

For more on the slavery aspect of public unions and collective bargaining advocates, please see Paul Krugman, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, others, Ignore Extortion, Bribery, Coercion, and Slavery; No One Should Own You!

Right-to-Work is an Unalienable Right

The "right-to-work" is an unalienable right. Unfortunately, Paul Krugman, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, Michael Moore and countless others ignore the slavery aspect of this debate because it happens to suit their political goals.
Collective Bargaining vs. Company Store

Notice how "collective bargaining" has reversed by 180 degrees the concept of a "company store" in which workers had to buy their goods from the owner of the store.

Now the owner of the store must buy services from the workers. Those workers, must belong to the "collective" or they cannot get a job.

Note the owners of the store may not even be able to move it to another state to avoid the "collective". That happened to Boeing as noted in President Obama's Slave Trade; Senator DeMint Says Team Obama Acts Like Thugs
Suppose you own a profitable, legal in all 50 states, business and want to expand or reorganize your operations.

Now let's suppose that someone came up to you and said "Sorry boys, but you cannot do what you want with your business. You cannot go anywhere you please. See those balls and chains on your feet, boy? I have the key and I say you are staying right here. I am the slave master and don't you forget it."

That is exactly what President Obama said to Boeing, or rather a the labor relations board appointed by president Obama said to Boeing.
Fundamental Rights

Rights work both ways.

  1. No one should have to work for a company if they don't want to. People can quit, or they can strike.

  2. Likewise, no employee and no labor board has any fundamental right to tell businesses who they can hire, who they can fire, or what states they can do business in.

Violation of either point above is slavery. There is no other way of looking at it.

So "CT" has to picket when he does not want to, has to belong to a collective he does not want to, and cannot negotiate his own wages if he wants to. His only choice is to join the "collective" or not work.

"CT" is a forced into a "company store" arrangement that he does not want to join. This folks is slavery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Supercars in Vietnam

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 09:45 PM PST

Vietnam may be not the richest country on the planet, but there live a lot of very rich people who own very expensive cars.

























































Bootilicious Cuban Model, Kathy Ferreiro

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 09:23 PM PST

If you think that these revealing pictures have been photoshopped, you are wrong! While, Miss Ferreiro might have more T&A than most women, her voluptuous figure is all real and it's fantastic!