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luni, 25 februarie 2013

Seth's Blog : Will you choose to do it live?

Will you choose to do it live?

The answer isn't obvious, and it's certainly not for every career or every brand. I spend a lot of time wrestling with this very question.

Let's start with live music, the most familiar example of 'live':

The live performance isn't guaranteed: it might not work, the performance might be sub-par
It costs more, often a lot more, to attend
It only happens when the creator decides to make it available
The audience is part of the process, in many ways co-creating the work
Amplified live music always lower fidelity than the album

Pre-recorded music is perhaps 500 times more popular than live music, for these and other reasons. Five hundred!

The Grateful Dead made live music. Steely Dan didn't. The Beatles started very much with live but ended up exclusively with polished, packaged perfection.

Of course, live music is more likely to create something that we talk about, years later. Because it's scarce and risky.

The questions that are asked and the decisions you make to produce a fabulous live interaction have very little to do with the quality concerns and allocations you'll make to produce something that scales and lasts. Confusing the two just frustrates all involved.

When you buy an HP printer, you're buying a product, an industrialized artifact. Visit the Apple Store, and suddenly there's a live element—one bad genius can ruin your entire experience. Zappos figured out how to turn online shoe-buying into a live performance by encouraging people to call and interact. Twitter is live, an online PDF is not. Every day this blog flies without a net, typos and all.

Consultants do most of their best work live (asking questions, innovating answers) while novelists virtually never do their work live.

For the creator, live carries more than a whiff of danger. For the perfectionist, the luxury of editing and polishing is magical. And for the consumer, the reliability and sheen of the pre-tested product provides a solace that she just can't get from the dangerous, risky business of consuming it live.

Some non-profits spend their time seeking out the tested, perfect scalable solution--not live. Others do their work in the moment, in the field, live.

The fork in the road is right here. Taking your work live is energizing, invigorating and insanely risky. You give up the legacy of the backlist, the scalability of inventory and the assurance of editing. It's an entirely different way of being in the world. Scale and impact can certainly come from creating your best work and sharing it in a reliable way. On the other hand, if you're going to be live, then yes, do it live.

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duminică, 24 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU Doesn't Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site
Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics
Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition

EU Doesn't Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site

Posted: 24 Feb 2013 08:24 PM PST

With thanks to Yogi Berra, making predictions is hard, especially about the future. And with constantly revised forecasts for the EU, the European Commission decides the safe safe thing to do is Eliminate Forecasts for 2015.

Via Google Translate from El Economista ...

This morning you could see the data for 2012, 2103, 2014 and 2015, but now can only see the figures from 2011 to 2014 and there is no trace of the catastrophic 2015 numbers (see the screenshots attached below).

Although there is no official communication in one way or another, hypothetically could be a real blunder produced after being released by mistake, or any type of computer failure, a former forecasts for 2012 under the 2015 column.'s say, that would have mistakenly announced as 2015 forecast estimates released earlier this year to last year.

Forecasts of Discord

Those European Commission forecasts envisage a general improvement in economic scenario for 2014. However, estimates for 2015, this morning hidden behind an interactive graphic , pointed for a few hours, before being erased-a brutal relapse. In fact, Germany would grow 2% in 2014 to only 0.8% in 2015, would UK from 1.9% to 0.3%, France 1.2% and Spain 0.2% from 0.8% to -1.4%.

Sooner or Later

El Economista has some interesting snapshots of the removed estimates. To be completely fair, the original posting may have been a simple mistake.

Regardless, I suggest the EU forecast for 2014 is too optimistic.

Will the EU 2014 estimates be revised lower as well? If not soon, then expect revisions later, with France leading the way lower.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

Posted: 24 Feb 2013 07:02 PM PST

Here is an interesting video that came my way via reader "Nino". It's a look at some rather amazing technology that is developing right now, and I suspect very few are aware of it.

Link if video does not play: Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

The video shows a quadrocopter capable of dynamically balancing an inverted pendulum (a stick weighted at the bottom), but also flipping the stick to another quadrocopter that determines the optimal position to catch it without losing balance.

Technology marches on whether anyone is aware or not. People do become aware as markets for technology develop.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition

Posted: 24 Feb 2013 10:58 AM PST

Voting booths are open in Italy though 3:00PM Monday (9:00AM EST). Exit polls will trickle in soon after but early exit polls could be misleading. If the result is close we may not know for over a day.

The Wall Street Journal offers this Italian Election Guide.

Italian voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET Monday, after which exit polls will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the election.

The center-left coalition led by Democratic Left leader Pier Luigi Bersani was five percentage points ahead of Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition according to the average of polls before a blackout on such surveys kicked in two weeks ago, giving it clear front-runner status.

Exit polls in 2006 and 2008 underestimated votes cast for Mr. Berlusconi, but unless Italy's 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should – even with fewer than a third of the ballots cast – win a plurality, meaning his coalition will be awarded a majority of seats in the 630-seat lower legislative chamber.

Shift Has Taken Place

The Journal says "unless Italy's 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should win a plurality."

I suggest such a shift has taken place. The open question regards turnout and apathy, not a shift, per se.

Loser's Penalty

In the Chamber (the lower House of parliament) the party with the largest plurality in the national vote gets a majority (54%) of the seats. In the Senate (the upper chamber of parliament) each of Italy's 17 regions operate independently. The winner of each region gets a majority (55%) of the region's seats.

There are 315 seats in the Senate. Lombardy, Italy's largest region gets 49 seats and the winner will take 27 seats (55%). The other parties will split the remaining 22. Second place may only get 10.

The Journal sums it up this way.

"If Mr. Bersani wins all 17 regions, his coalition will have 178 seats and a commanding upper-house majority. However, if he loses Lombardy, the most populuous region, he will have only 162 seats. If he wins Lombardy but loses Veneto – a near certainty given polling trends – and also loses Sicily – to Mr. Grillo rather than Mr. Berlusconi – the center-left will have 159 Senate seats, a razor-thin majority."

Not So Fast

I am not convinced Bersani wins the Chamber, let alone the Senate. Some 22-25% of Italians were undecided in the election polls before blackout two weeks ago. Since then, I suggest (based on crowd turnout and social media comments) that there has been a surge for Beppe Grillio and Silvio Berlusconi.

The last election polls before the blackout look like this:

Bersani center-left 34.5%
Berlusconi center-right 29%
Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement 19%
Monti Civic Choice 12%.

Given the number of undecided voters, Bersani can easily drop 3% or more (and I suspect more). If Berlusconi and/or Grillo gets a huge percent of the undecided votes, Bersani can easily drop to second or even third place.

Senate Coalition Unlikely

Monti is a lost cause and I doubt he gets more than 10%, making a Senate coalition unlikely if not impossible.

I commented on the possibility of a win by Berlusconi or Grillo in Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts.

Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...

Hi Mish

After a hung parliament, the next most likely outcome may very well be the Five Star Movement (M5S) getting an absolute majority. Rage against the political class is extremely high in Italy, everything that looks "new" is getting votes. Grillo was able to catch the sentiment shift with extremely populist proposals even though his economic program is quite incoherent if not blatantly preposterous.

Grillo support comes from the youngest part of the population.

Undecided voters may not vote at all (in Italy you do not have to register to have right to vote, you are registered by default) or they will probably shift massively to Grillo. The outcome will depend on whether the undecideds stay home.

How Grillo's parliament members will react as newly elected officials is a real unknown. Grillo himself will not be in the Parliament, and his party will be quite young. None of them have much political experience, even not in smaller city councils.

What they will do? How they will react? Nobody knows. That's the most "fascinating" thing of M5S, completely new people of a completely new party managed in a completely new way. Grillo and his candidates never did a single minute of TV interview during the whole campaign. They decided to ignore completely TV (but TV has not completely ignored them). This also is completely new, probably new in the modern world.

I do not think Berlusconi will be able to win this time. He has definitely lost a part of his voters, those that expected from him to keep his past promises.

The hung parliament is the most likely outcome, as I said months ago, and I do not even think that Bersani and Monti together will have majority.

Last but not least: Monti has declared yesterday that Merkel was not comfortable with Bersani as Prime Minister, but Merkel officially denied the minute after. Really a strange declaration from a man like Monti that made of international credibility its main "value proposition".

Regards

AC

The Apathy Factor

I expect a surge of voter enthusiasm for Grillo that will take votes away from Bersani and Berlusconi. Somewhat paradoxically, I also expect a surge in apathy where voters stay home.

The apathy I refer to is not on the Grillo or Berlusconi side, but apathy for Bersani and Monti. Certainly the campaign by Monti is anemic. Thus, unless there is a late surge of energy for Bersani (and I highly doubt there is), Bersani is going to come up short.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Understanding internet genius

Understanding internet genius

The media has changed, forever, and of course that means that what it takes to be labeled a genius has changed as well.

Here's a page I built about Joni Mitchell and three people who have made an impact in the post-LP interactive, connection economy.

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Seth's Blog : Real-time news is neither

Real-time news is neither

The closer you get to the event itself, the more it costs to find out what's going on. A week or a month or a year after the fact, the truth (or as close as we can get) is nearly free. Finding out that same truth mere seconds after it happens is costly indeed.

Want to know what the crime rate in Scarsdale was like on January 1? You can look that up instantly. Want to know what it was three seconds ago? A lot more difficult.

Mike Bloomberg became the richest man in New York by selling traders just fifteen seconds head start on the data they needed. Fifteen seconds costs thousands of dollars a month per trader. But in most cases, what we get online is not actually in real-time and it's not news, either.

Getting ever closer to the first moment is expensive in other ways. It might cost you in boredom, because watching an entire event just to see the good parts takes time, particularly if there's no guarantee that there will even be good parts.

It might cost you in filtering, because the less you're willing to wait, the more likely it is that you'll see news that's incorrect, out of context or not nearly as valuable as it appears.

When journalists, analysts and pundits are all racing to bring you the 'news' first, you get less actual news and more reflexive noise. Go watch an hour of cable news from a year ago... what were they yelling about that we actually care about today?

And, it turns out, the five minute head start you got from watching that news live has no real value to make up for all the costs that go with it.

On the other hand, if you can figure out how to bring actual, interesting, useful breaking 'news' to those that will pay for it, you can provide quite a profitable and beloved service.

In the last ten years we've redefined breaking news from "happened yesterday" to "happened less than fifteen seconds ago." The next order of magnitude will be prohibitively expensive and (most of the time) not particularly useful. Better, I think, to hustle in the other direction and figure out how to benefit from well-understood truth instead of fast and fresh rumor.

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sâmbătă, 23 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Robots Don't Commit Suicide (and Other Robot Advantages)
Half of Detroit Properties Have Not Paid Taxes; Update on Detroit Bankruptcy
Beppe Grillo Surges in Last Minute Rush; Is That a Good Thing?

Robots Don't Commit Suicide (and Other Robot Advantages)

Posted: 23 Feb 2013 10:11 PM PST

Robots don't eat, drink, demand coffee breaks, or protest working conditions. And they certainly don't commit suicide.

Following a wave of suicides in China, one at Foxconn where a worker twice attempted to kill himself and succeeded the second time, Foxconn suspended hiring, deciding to use more robots.

Electronics manufacturer Foxconn has halted recruitment in China, which it claims is due to plans to further automate processes, amid speculation of a reduction in production demand by its key client Apple.

In fact, the recruitment freezes among Foxconn this time is due to its long pronounced plans to install million robots to replace human, Chinese newspaper Beijing News reported on Wednesday, citing unidentified employees.

Foxconn chairman Terry Gou had ordered all factories in China earlier this year to beef up automated manufacturing processes by using more robots. According to the report, if any factories plan to conduct large-scale recruitment, it will need his personal approval.

In June 2011, Gou announced the company would deploy one million robots across factory assembly lines within three years.

The move will improve production efficiency and combat rising labor costs, and is also believed to be in response to a spate of suicides and criticism over working conditions at the company.

Get rid of a million workers, replace them with a million robots, and you get rid of a million complaints about working conditions, as well as unwanted, high-profile, work-related suicides.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Half of Detroit Properties Have Not Paid Taxes; Update on Detroit Bankruptcy

Posted: 23 Feb 2013 08:04 AM PST

The hollowing out of Detroit is nearly complete. All that's left is a bankrupt shell of a city with no services and scattered citizens that do not pay taxes.

The Detroit News reports Half of Detroit Property Owners Don't Pay Taxes

Nearly half of the owners of Detroit's 305,000 properties failed to pay their tax bills last year, exacerbating a punishing cycle of declining revenues and diminished services for a city in a financial crisis, according to a Detroit News analysis of government records.

The News reviewed more than 200,000 pages of tax documents and found that 47 percent of the city's taxable parcels are delinquent on their 2011 bills. Some $246.5 million in taxes and fees went uncollected, about half of which was due Detroit and the rest to other entities, including Wayne County, Detroit Public Schools and the library.

Delinquency is so pervasive that 77 blocks had only one owner who paid taxes last year, The News found. Many of those who don't pay question why they should in a city that struggles to light its streets or keep police on them.

"Why pay taxes?" asked Fred Phillips, who owes more than $2,600 on his home on an east-side block where five owners paid 2011 taxes. "Why should I send them taxes when they aren't supplying services? It is sickening. … Every time I see the tax bill come, I think about the times we called and nobody came."

Update on Detroit Bankruptcy

Detroit is financially and morally bankrupt yet the governor refuses to make that declaration. A Review team says Detroit faces financial crisis, has no plan to fix it so why won't the governor act?

For the second time in a year, a state review team has found Detroit is in a financial emergency that requires Gov. Rick Snyder to intervene in City Hall.

But this time, if Snyder agrees that a financial emergency exists, the governor's choices are more limited. He could appoint an emergency manager to keep Michigan's largest city from plunging into bankruptcy, experts say, or he could continue state financial supervision through a new consent agreement, which seems a faint possibility.

State Treasurer Andy Dillon ruled out a bankruptcy filing at this time.

The six-member review team unanimously concluded in a report released Tuesday that the city failed to restructure its debt-laden bureaucracy under the financial consent agreement signed in April and that Detroit's financial crisis requires Snyder's intervention "because no satisfactory plan exists to resolve a serious financial problem."

Chapter 9 bankruptcy is "always a possibility but I don't think the city should go through (Chapter) 9 to cure its ailments," he added.

The review team said the city's charter adds "numerous restrictions" and hurdles for closing departments, canceling contracts and the type of wholesale restructuring financial experts say is necessary to make city government live within its means.

Restrictions? Who Cares?

In bankruptcy, restrictions go out the window. So do union contracts and pensions. Since all of that needs to go out the window, what's holding the governor back?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Beppe Grillo Surges in Last Minute Rush; Is That a Good Thing?

Posted: 22 Feb 2013 11:39 PM PST

Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France informs me that the Italian elections this weekend are getting even more interesting.

Specifically, "AC" writes "Grillo claims 800,000 assisted at his closure meeting in Rome with another 150,000 via streaming. My feeling is that there will be a huge turnout for Grillo in the election".

Joe Weisenthal on the Business Insider writes "I Have Seen The Scariest Chart In Europe".

The chart Weisenthal refers to is from Google Trends. It shows a surge in searches on Beppe Grillo. Weisenthal says ...

Grillo is a comedian-turned-politician who is doing shockingly well the Italian elections (coming up this Sunday and Monday) by running on an aggressive anti-bank, euro-skeptic platform.

He's capitalizing on the deep frustration that exists in Italy due to the weak economy, and the perception that the current government is too corrupt and cozy with banks. Were he to gain a sizable block in the upcoming parliament, he represents a pretty serious threat.

A threat? A Threat to What?

Grillo wants Italy to vote on whether or not to stay in the Eurozone. On that score I happen to agree. The sooner the eurozone splinters the better. Greece would be better off if it left four years ago and Spain would be better off if it left now.

That does not mean I endorse all the policies of Grillo, and indeed I don't. My point is that huge change is desperately needed.

As I have stated on many occasions "Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."

The scare should not be that a breakup happens, but rather that the inevitable is delayed with grave consequences.

Scariest Chart Ever?

Weisenthal calls that the scariest Europe chart ever. Assuming the chart does represent an increasing interest in Beppe Grillo, I call it a necessary trend on the path to rebalancing Europe.

For more on the election in Italy, an explanation of Beppe Grillo's "5 Star Movement" and some election predictions, please see European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

Three Ways to Make More Money with Your Blog
Must Use WordPress Plugins for Every Blogger
The Importance Of An SEO Campaign For Your Business
4 Simple Tips to Rank Your Blog Higher On Search Engine
Social Media: Branding Yourself In The Digital Age

Three Ways to Make More Money with Your Blog

Posted: 23 Feb 2013 06:31 AM PST

Having a blog is one thing, but creating a successful and authority site is another. A common goal among all bloggers is that they want to have a successful site that people visit, read and comment on. Oh yea, they also want to make money in the process. Before making...
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Must Use WordPress Plugins for Every Blogger

Posted: 23 Feb 2013 03:39 AM PST

Running a successful blog isn’t easy, but thanks to WordPress plugins the job can be made a lot easier. Since WordPress is the number one solution for building web sites and blogs, it would only make sense that they have thousands of free and premium plugins for site owners to...
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The Importance Of An SEO Campaign For Your Business

Posted: 22 Feb 2013 11:42 PM PST

Search engine optimization is a must in today’s internet marketing world. If you want your business to compete online then you must not only run a search engine optimization campaign but one that is successful and in order to do this you must hire a Phoenix web design team that...
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4 Simple Tips to Rank Your Blog Higher On Search Engine

Posted: 22 Feb 2013 11:36 PM PST

You love writing a blog and sharing your experience and thoughts with people? Or are you a business entity that reaches to its reader and customer base through a blog to let them know about your work and helping them in their needs? In both the cases, you would seriously...
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Social Media: Branding Yourself In The Digital Age

Posted: 22 Feb 2013 09:42 PM PST

Social media has completely revolutionized the way that businesses brand themselves to consumers. With an influx of information and advertisements, it has become increasingly important for marketers to ensure that their potential customers become acquainted with their business in an engaging and compelling manner. Therefore, in order to spur business...
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luni, 25 februarie 2013

Seth's Blog : Will you choose to do it live?

Will you choose to do it live?

More Recent Articles

duminică, 24 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Understanding internet genius

Understanding internet genius

More Recent Articles

Seth's Blog : Real-time news is neither

Real-time news is neither

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 23 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

SEO Blog

SEO Blog

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luni, 25 februarie 2013

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duminică, 24 februarie 2013

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sâmbătă, 23 februarie 2013

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