luni, 6 aprilie 2015

9 Things You Need to Know About Google's Mobile-Friendly Update - Moz Blog


9 Things You Need to Know About Google's Mobile-Friendly Update

Posted on: Monday 06 April 2015 — 02:15

Posted by Suzzicks

Rumors are flying about Google's upcoming mobile-friendly update, and bits of reliable information have come from several sources. My colleague Emily Grossman and I wanted to cut through the noise and bring online marketers a clearer picture of what's in store later this month. In this post, you'll find our answers to nine key questions about the update.

1. What changes is Google making to its algorithm on April 21st?

Answer: Recently, Google has been rolling out lots of changes to apps, Google Play, the presentation of mobile SERPS, and some of the more advanced development guidelines that impact mobile; we believe that many of these are in preparation for the 4/21 update. Google has been downplaying some of these changes, and we have no exclusive advanced knowledge about anything that Google will announce on 4/21, but based on what we have seen and heard recently, here is our best guess of what is coming in the future (on 4/21 or soon thereafter):

We believe Google will launch a new mobile crawler (probably with an Android user-agent) that can do a better job of crawling single-page web apps, Android apps, and maybe even Deep Links in iOS apps. The new Mobile-Friendly guidelines that launched last month focus on exposing JS and CSS because Android apps are built in Java, and single-page web apps rely heavily on JavaScript for their fluid, app-like experience.

Some example sites that use Responsive Design well in a single-page app architecture are:

Also, according to Rob Ousbey of Distilled, Google has been testing this kind of architecture on Blogspot.com (a Google property).

Google has also recently been pushing for more feeds from Trusted Partners, which are a key component of both mobile apps and single-page web apps since Phantom JS and Prerender IO (and similar technologies) together essentially generate crawlable feeds for indexing single-page web apps. We think this increased focus on JS, CSS, and feeds is also the reason why Google needs the additional mobile index that Gary Illyes mentioned in his "Meet the Search Engines" interview at SMX West a couple weeks ago, and why suddenly Google has been talking about apps as "first class citizens," as called out by Mariya Moeva in the title of her SMX West presentation.

A new mobile-only index to go with the new crawler also makes sense because Google wants to index and rank both app content and deep links to screens in apps, but it does not necessarily want to figure them into the desktop algorithm or slow it down with content that should never rank in a desktop search. We also think that the recent increased focus on deep links and the announcement from Google about Google Play's new automated and manual review process are related. This announcement indicates, almost definitively, that Google has built a crawler that is capable of crawling Android apps. We believe that this new crawler will also be able to index more than one content rendering (web page or app screen data-set) to one URL/URI and it will probably will focus more on feeds, schema and sitemaps for its own efficiency. Most of the native apps that would benefit from deep linking are driven by data feeds, and crawling the feeds instead of the apps would give Google the ability to understand the app content, especially for iOS apps, (which they are still not likely able to crawl), without having to crawl the app code. Then, it can crawl the deep-linked web content to validate the app content.

FYI: Garry Illyes mentioned that Google is retiring their old AJAX indexing instructions, but did not say how they would be replaced, except to specify in a Google+ post that Google would not click links to get more content. Instead, they would need an OnLoad event to trigger further crawling. These webmaster instructions for making AJAX crawlable were often relied on as a way to make single-page web apps crawlable, and we think that feeds will play a role here, too, as part of the replacement. Relying more heavily on feeds also makes it easier for Google to scrape data directly into SERPS, which they have been doing more and more. (See the appendix of this slide deck, starting on slide 30, for lots of mobile examples of this change in play already.) This probably will include the ability to scrape forms directly into a SERP, à la the form markup for auto-complete that Google just announced.

We are also inclined to believe that the use of the new "Mobile-Friendly" designation in mobile SERPS may be temporary, as long as SEOs and webmasters feel incentivized to make their CSS and JavaScript crawlable, and get into the new mobile index. "Mobile-Friendly" in the SERP is a bit clunky, and takes up a lot of space, so Google may decide switch to something else, like the "slow" tag shown to the right, originally spotted in testing by Barry Schwartz. In fact, showing the "Slow" tag might make sense later in the game, after most webmasters have made the updates, and Google instead needs to create a more serious and impactful negative incentive for the stragglers. (This is Barry's image; we have not actually seen this one yet).

In terms of the Mobile-Friendly announcement, it is surprising that Google has not focused more on mobile page speed, minimizing redirects and avoiding mobile-only errors—their historical focus for mobile SEO. This could be because page speed does not matter as much in the evaluation of content if Google is getting most of its crawl information from feeds. Our guess is that things like page speed and load time will rebound in focus after 4/21. We also think mobile UX indicators that are currently showing at the bottom of the Google PageSpeed tool (at the bottom of the "mobile" tab) will play into the new mobile algorithm—we have actually witnessed Google testing their inclusion in the Mobile-Friendly tool already, as shown below, and of course, they were recently added to everyone's Webmaster Tools reports. It is possible that the current focus on CSS and JavaScript is to ensure that as many pages are in the new index as possible at launch.

2. If my site is not mobile-friendly, will this impact my desktop rankings as well?

Answer: On a panel at SMX Munich (2 weeks after SMX West) Zineb from Google answered 'no' without hesitation. We took this as another indication that the new index is related to a new crawler and/or a major change to the infrastructure they are using to parse, index, and evaluate mobile search results but not desktop results. That said, you should probably take some time soon to make sure that your site works—at least in a passable way—on mobile devices, just in case there are eventual desktop repercussions (and because this is a user experience best practice that can lead to other improvements that are still desktop ranking factors, such as decreasing your bounce rate).

3. How much will mobile rankings be impacted?

Answer: On the same panel at SMX Munich (mentioned above), Zineb said that this 4/21 change will be bigger than the Panda and Penguin updates. Again, we think this fits well with an infrastructure change. It is unclear if all mobile devices will be impacted in the change or not. The change might be more impactful for Android devices or might impact Android and iOS devices equally—though currently we are seeing significant differences between iOS and Android for some types of search results, with more significant changes happening on Android than on iOS.

Deep linking is a key distinction between mobile SERPs on the Android OS and SERPs on iOS (currently, SERPs only display Android app deep links, and only on Android devices). But there is reason to believe this gap will be closing. For example, in his recent Moz post and in his presentation at SMX West, Justin Briggs mentioned that a few sample iOS deep links were validating in Google's deep link tool. This may indicate that iOS apps with deep links will be easier to surface in the new framework, but it is still possible that won't make it into the 4/21 update. It is also unclear whether or not Google will maintain its stance on tablets being more like desktop experiences than they are like mobile devices, and what exactly Google is considering "mobile." What we can say here, though, is that Android tablets DO appear to be including the App Pack results, so we think they will change their stance here, and start to classify tablets as mobile on 4/21.

Emails are also increasingly impacting SERPs—particularly mobile SERPs), since mobile email opens have grown by 180% in three years, and Google is trying to take advantage of this increased engagement on mobile devices. As of now, schema can be included in emails to drive notifications in the Google Now app, and also to let Google surface marked-up emails in a browser-based search. This all happens by virtue of Google crawling all emails that come into your Gmail account, and indexing them to your user-profile so that they are accessible and able to rank like this across all of your devices (even if you aren't currently logged into your Gmail account on your phone). Optimizing emails for mobile search is also becoming more important, and in the 4/21 update Google could do more to push the use of Schema markup in emails to drive personalized search results like the one shown to the right.

Inclusions like this mean that even if you are able to maintain your keyword rankings in mobile search after April 21, you may not necessarily be able to sustain your mobile traffic.

4. What about sites that redirect to a mobile subdomain? Will they be considered mobile-friendly?

Answer: This is an interesting question, because immediately after the roll-out of the Mobile-Friendly tagging, we actually saw significantly more mDot ('m.') websites ranking well in the mobile SERPS. It's almost like they counted the mobile subdomain as a Mobile-Friendly signal, but started the algorithm fresh, with no historical data to indicate which other sites had fewer obvious signals of mobility, like a responsive design, or an adaptive or dynamically served mobile site. It is also interesting to note that many of the Google representatives seem to have recently backed off of their strong insistence on responsive design. They still say that it is the least error-prone, and easiest to crawl and index, but they also now seem to be more willing to acknowledge the other viable mobile site architectures.

5. How do I know if my site meets Google's requirements for mobile friendliness?

Answer: Google has created a Mobile-Friendliness tool that will give you a 'yes' or 'no' answer on a per-url basis. Pages are evaluated individually, so another quick way to get a sense for how your top pages perform is to do a "site:" query for the domain in question on your phone. That will allow you to see all the pages indexed to the domain, and evaluate which ones are considered Mobile-Friendly and which are not, without having to submit them to the tool one at a time.

Google has been clear that Mobile-Friendly test results are binary, meaning that your page is either Mobile-Friendly or it is not. There is no 50% or 70% Mobile-Friendly result possible—no middle ground. They have also taken care to specify that Google's Mobile-Friendly evaluations are somewhat instant, implying that there is no proving-time or "sandbox" associated with the tag, but this could be somewhat misleading. There may be no intentional time-delay before a page is awarded the Mobile-Friendly notation, but it will only change after a crawl of the site indicates that the page is now Mobile-Friendly, so it is close to instantaneous if the pages are getting crawled on a very regular basis.

We have found that the tool result does not necessarily match up with what we are seeing on our phones. We have occasionally also noticed that sometimes two pages in the same page template will perform differently, even though the content that changes between the template is primarily text. Both of these variations could simply be an indication of real-time delay between the tool and the crawler—the tool does an ad-hoc check on the URL to assess mobile-friendliness, but if the bot has not been by the site to evaluate its mobile friendliness recently, then the page in question would not yet have the Mobile-Friendly designation in the SERP. With this in mind, remember that when you are updating a page, and pushing it live for testing, you must use the tool to see if the update has been successful, until the site is re-crawled. This also means that once you see success in the tool, the best way to get the Mobile-Friendly designation to show up in the results faster might just be to push a sitemap in Webmaster tools, and try to trigger a fresh crawl.

6. How does having a mobile app impact my mobile rankings?

Answer: There are two things to consider here. First, if a mobile search query is highly correlated with mobile app listings (the app "download pages" in the Google Play and iOS App Stores), your app could see significantly more visibility within mobile search results pages. This is because Google has started treating apps as a new kind of universal search result, returning an "App Pack" of Google Play results for certain searches on Android devices (shown at the right), and adding an Apps drop-down to the main nav-bar on iOS devices (not shown).

An "App Pack" is a group of related apps that rank together for a given query, shown together in a box separate from the inline organic search results. It has different formatting and an "Apps" header. These often float to the top of a mobile search result, pushing the second or sometimes even the first organic result below the fold. This is also discussed in Justin Briggs' article about apps. Currently, there is a high correlation between Google Play "App Pack" rankings and exact-match keywords in the app title. Google also seems to be evaluating app quality here and tries to serve only higher-than-average rated apps in the App Pack (this generally tends to be around a 3.5 – 4 star minimum for common keyword phrases).

If Google starts to serve these App Packs on iOS device searches as well, all apps that have keyword-optimized titles and have high-quality ratings and reviews could jump up to the top of the mobile web SERPs, increasing their visability and likely downloads. Conversely, mobile websites that currently enjoy an above-the-fold #1 or #2 organic ranking may get pushed below the fold in mobile SERPs, especially for queries that are highly correlated with mobile app results. This could cause a negative impact on mobile website visibility (without necessarily changing standard numeric rankings), in cases where a query returns a mobile App Pack—regardless of whether or not an app within that pack is yours.

Second, Mariya Moeva (Google Webmaster Trends Analyst) recently announced at SMX West that Google will be considering "high quality" apps to be a positive ranking factor in mobile search. We took this to mean that Deep Links between your website and your app will improve your website rankings in mobile search. Deep Links are different from app store listings in the App Store or Google Play, because they link directly to a specific screen within your app experience. They look just like regular links in the mobile search result, but when you click them, you are given the option of opening the link in on the web or in the app.

Currently, if you add Deep Links to your Android mobile app and associate your app URIs with corresponding (content-matching) webpages, Google will recognize the connection between your app content and your web content (and allow users who have your app installed to access your content directly in the mobile app). As it is now, the only way for Deep Links to your app contents to appear in search results is:

  • For app screens to have a 1-1 content parity with webpages
  • For those screens to have proper Deep Link coding that associates them with the corresponding pages on the website, AND
  • For your app to be installed on the searcher's device. If the app is not installed or there is no corresponding web content, the links in the SERP will just behave as normal, web links.

Mariya didn't state exactly how Google will be evaluating the quality of apps, but we can guess that Google will be considering signals like star ratings, reviews, and +1s. And if what we assume about the 4/21 update proves to be true, it is possible that app URIs without corresponding Deep Linked web content may rank independently in a mobile SERP from information that Google aquired via app feeds. In this case, "app quality" could be a positive mobile ranking signal for its own URIs/ screens, and not just the website it is associated with. This would be a great boon for app descovery.

7. Do I need an app, and if so, should it be Android, iOS or both? What if I have a limited budget?

Answer: If you have the budget to develop both a mobile app and a mobile website, there can be significant value to maintaining both, particularly if you leverage the mobile app as a "value add" for your customers and not just a website duplicate (though enabling some functionality duplication is necessary for deep linking). If you have a limited budget, you will have to make a choice, but it is important to consider this a business choice and not primarily an SEO choice. Your business might be well served by a mobile website or might be better served by a mobile app with only a promotional mobile web landing page meant to send web traffic to app stores (ex. Tinder). In general, most businesses can be extremely well served by a mobile website and should focus their budget on making that experience great across many devices. We only recommend going "app-first" if you are trying to offer an experience that cannot be delivered well on a mobile website. Experiences that offer a valuable offline utilities (think photo-editing apps), or take advantage of heavy computing (like gaming apps) or rely on non-web input elements such as device accelerometers or GPS, are often better suited for an app.

Apps are generally riskier because they require more up-front investment, and have to be tightly in sync with app store guidelines and approval processes that you have no control over. There are a lot of barriers to entry; just building and maintaining an experience can cost an average of $100k per platform, so it's important that you know this is the right experience for your customers before you choose this path.

If you decide that an app experience is the best choice for your business (or you have budgeted an app in addition to your mobile web experience), you can use the operating system data in Google Analytics to help you determine which Operating System is more popular among your users. If you don't have this data because you don't have a website yet or you have too limited a mobile audience to determine a trend, you should choose the platform that best matches with your monetization strategies. iOS users tend to spend more money than their Android counterparts, but there are more total Android users around the world than iOS users. The implication is that if you plan to monetize your app with user transactions like In App Purchases (IAPs) or Subscriptions, iOS may be the way to start, but if you plan to monetize your app with advertisements, Android could be just as lucrative, if not more so. If Android app discovery is made easier with the 4/21 update but iOS app discovery is not, that could also factor into the decision process.

8. How is mobile traffic impacted by the user search query? Is there a way I can find out if my top keywords are mostly desktop or mobile keywords?

Answer: Search queries actually matter more and more for mobile, because Google is trying to do a much better job of anticipating and embracing a user's intent from the query. This means that often, Google is presenting the information a searcher requests directly in the search result above the organic rankings. SEOs are used to this for local-mobile searches, but it is now happening for all kinds of searches, so it can steal traffic that would otherwise go to the site and can skew success metrics.

Google has expanded the types of information that they scrape and pull from a site directly into an answer box, especially in mobile. They have also increased and diversified the number of aggregator-style "Sponsored" results that show up in mobile—especially on Android. The top mobile search result for most flight, hotel, music, and TV show queries are now specially designed, sponsored, aggregated results that push the old organic results below the fold. Whenever you see a little grey 'i' in the upper right hand corner of a mobile search result – especially a specially formatted list of results that Google has aggregated for you, that means that Google is probably getting a small portion of any related transaction, even if it is just the website paying for the click. Simple blue-link search results may soon be a thing of the past—especially above the fold.

Even regular, non-aggregator-style PPC results are taking up more room and looking more compelling with click-to-call, star ratings, app icons, links for directions and ad extensions, so these may be more of a threat for SEO moving forward (shown on the right). There is a long list of examples that we shared in the Appendix of Cindy's SMX Munich deck about the Future of Mobile SEO. With all the scraping, PPC may be the only way to out-rank Google and get above the fold for some queries in the mobile SERP.

If you have not seen Dr. Pete's presentation from SMX West this year about the Changing of Google SERPS, you really must! It addresses this question in the desktop format, but I think the crux of what he is saying is even truer in mobile. This Dr. Pete quote from a related interview is very telling:

"Google is essentially competing against us with our own information, and I think that's a turning point in the relationship between Google and webmasters." -Dr. Pete

In terms of which keywords are more mobile-oriented than desktop-oriented, this can be a difficult question. You can get some basic information from Webmaster Tools by filtering the keyword information to show mobile only queries, and you can do something similar in Google Analytics. Beyond that, there are some more sophisticated solutions, like those from Search Metrics and Brightedge, but those are often out of reach for smaller operations.

9. What is Google's goal with all of these mobile-friendly changes?

There are obviously a lot of goals in the mix here, but we do believe that Google is making these changes primarily to provide a better mobile experience for searchers, and give people exactly what they want. That said though, they are also in it to make money. Being able to easily surface apps in a search result will help them drive more and better app development for Google Play and monetize their other content like TV shows, books, magazines, movies, and music—all of which have been threatened recently by competitors like Hulu, Amazon, and of course iOS App Store and iTunes.

Google has been encouraging publishers to include transcripts with videos and song lyrics with songs. In the long run, those will help Google scrape and show those things in answer boxes, as shown at the right, but eventually they will probably also surface their own version of the content from Google Play, with links just below the answer box, so that you can watch the video or download the song directly to your phone on Google Play. When you think about Google's intentions on this front, and try to envision the future, it is important to note that Google is actually already offering Google Play for iOS, which currently just provides the Google Music cloud-storage and a music subscription model. We expect this to expand as well, so that Google can expand their level of competitiveness here too. 


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Seth's Blog : Categories

Categories

Are tomatoes a fruit?

The benefit of a category isn't to denigrate something or someone. It's to help us make better decisions with limited information.

If we put someone in the category of, "frequent business traveler," we can apply previous learnings about what people like this might want or need.

Categories are useful tools when they help us find shared worldviews and interests. They're ineffective when they are nothing but surface labels, labels that don't help us serve.

Use categories well and you seem like a well-prepared mindreader, able to provide what people need, sometimes before they even realize it. It means you can treat patients, lead employees and delight customers on a regular basis.

Use them with laziness or ill intent, and you dehumanize the very people you ought to be serving.

       

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duminică, 5 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


The Obama Doctrine; An Astonishingly Good Deal? "Only Rand Paul Could Do Worse" Says Senator Graham

Posted: 05 Apr 2015 07:57 PM PDT

Hardline skeptics in Iran, the US, and Israel all want to scuttle President Obama's mission to forge a deal with Iran over its nuclear program.

Critics in the Iran want all sanctions removed, critics in US Congress claim Iran will never live up to the commitment, and critics in Israel do not want Iran to have any nuclear capability period.

An Astonishingly Good Deal

My position is the same as that of Vox writer Max Fisher who says This is an Astonishingly Good Iran Deal.

  • Iran will give up about 14,000 of its 20,000 centrifuges
  • Iran will give up all but its most rudimentary, outdated centrifuges: its first-generation IR-1s, knockoffs of 1970s European models, are all it gets to keep. It will not be allowed to build or develop newer models.
  • Iran will give up 97 percent of its enriched uranium; it will hold on to only 300 kilograms of its 10,000-kilogram stockpile in its current form.
  • Iran will destroy or export the core of its plutonium plant at Arak, and replace it with a new core that cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium. It will ship out all spent nuclear fuel.
  • Inspectors will have access to all parts of Iran's nuclear supply chain, including its uranium mines and the mills where it processes uranium ore. Inspectors will also not just monitor but be required to pre-approve all sales to Iran of nuclear-related equipment. This provision also applies to something called 'dual-use' materials, which means any equipment that could be used toward a nuclear program.

Deal Fact Sheet

The deal is even better than described above. Here is the Fact Sheet of the agreement.

Iran nearly walked out because the US would not agree to end all sanctions.

Nothing Much Left of Weapons Proposal

I see absolutely nothing in that package to dislike. There is not much left of Iran's nuclear weapons program to be worried about although Iran does get to keep a research center.

Republicans Blast Deal

Unfortunately, it's politics as usual in Congress as Republican hopefuls take turns criticizing Iran nuclear deal.
Republican hopefuls in the 2016 presidential race are criticizing the Obama administration's tentative nuclear deal with Iran, saying the agreement is dangerous for the United States and its allies.

"Obama's dangerous deal with Iran rewards an enemy, undermines our allies and threatens our safety," Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who sits atop several early polls, tweeted shortly after the tentative deal was announced Thursday.

Walker also has vowed, if elected, that he will pull the U.S. from the international deal on "day one" of his presidency.

"The reported details of the Iran deal include significant concessions to a nation whose leaders call for death to America and the destruction of Israel," said Jeb Bush, another top potential candidate and a former Florida governor. "Iran remains a major destabilizing force in the region, working against American interests."

"This attempt to spin diplomatic failure as a success is just the latest example of this administration's farcical approach to Iran," said Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is expected on April 13 to announce his candidacy.

"We're  still looking at the exact details, but (the language of the deal) suggests it will dramatically undermine the interests of the U.S.," Cruz said Thursday night in a town hall-style meeting in Des Moines, Iowa. "This administration doesn't understand the people they are dealing with. They support death and suicide.
Politico cites a phone interview with Senator Mark Kirk: "I would say that Neville Chamberlain got a lot more out of Hitler than Wendy Sherman got out of Iran."

The Obama Doctrine and Iran

President Obama gave an exclusive interview to Thomas Friedman in the Oval Office Saturday afternoon as described in the New York Times article The Obama Doctrine and Iran.
President Obama invited me to the Oval Office Saturday afternoon to lay out exactly how he was trying to balance these risks and opportunities in the framework accord reached with Iran last week in Switzerland. What struck me most was what I'd call an "Obama doctrine" embedded in the president's remarks. It emerged when I asked if there was a common denominator to his decisions to break free from longstanding United States policies isolating Burma, Cuba and now Iran. Obama said his view was that "engagement," combined with meeting core strategic needs, could serve American interests vis-à-vis these three countries far better than endless sanctions and isolation. He added that America, with its overwhelming power, needs to have the self-confidence to take some calculated risks to open important new possibilities — like trying to forge a diplomatic deal with Iran that, while permitting it to keep some of its nuclear infrastructure, forestalls its ability to build a nuclear bomb for at least a decade, if not longer.

"We are powerful enough to be able to test these propositions without putting ourselves at risk. And that's the thing ... people don't seem to understand," the president said. "You take a country like Cuba. For us to test the possibility that engagement leads to a better outcome for the Cuban people, there aren't that many risks for us. It's a tiny little country. It's not one that threatens our core security interests, and so [there's no reason not] to test the proposition. And if it turns out that it doesn't lead to better outcomes, we can adjust our policies. The same is true with respect to Iran, a larger country, a dangerous country, one that has engaged in activities that resulted in the death of U.S. citizens, but the truth of the matter is: Iran's defense budget is $30 billion. Our defense budget is closer to $600 billion. Iran understands that they cannot fight us. ... You asked about an Obama doctrine. The doctrine is: We will engage, but we preserve all our capabilities."

Israel is right to be concerned about Iran, and they should be absolutely concerned that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon." But, he insisted, this framework initiative, if it can be implemented, can satisfy that Israeli strategic concern with more effectiveness and at less cost to Israel than any other approach. "We know that a military strike or a series of military strikes can set back Iran's nuclear program for a period of time — but almost certainly will prompt Iran to rush towards a bomb, will provide an excuse for hard-liners inside of Iran to say, 'This is what happens when you don't have a nuclear weapon: America attacks.'

"We know that if we do nothing, other than just maintain sanctions, that they will continue with the building of their nuclear infrastructure and we'll have less insight into what exactly is happening," Obama added. "So this may not be optimal. In a perfect world, Iran would say, 'We won't have any nuclear infrastructure at all,' but what we know is that this has become a matter of pride and nationalism for Iran. Even those who we consider moderates and reformers are supportive of some nuclear program inside of Iran, and given that they will not capitulate completely, given that they can't meet the threshold that Prime Minister Netanyahu sets forth, there are no Iranian leaders who will do that. And given the fact that this is a country that withstood an eight-year war and a million people dead, they've shown themselves willing, I think, to endure hardship when they considered a point of national pride or, in some cases, national survival."
Only Rand Paul Could Do Worse Says Senator Graham

Bloomberg reports Only Rand Paul Could Do Worse Says Senator Graham.

"The best deal, I think, comes with a new president. Hillary Clinton would do better. I think everybody on our side, except maybe Rand Paul, could do better," Graham said on CBS' Face The Nation.

Precisely what deal does Graham expect? For Iran to kiss his ass?

Most of the Republican candidates seem to believe that negotiation means surrender. Of course surrender implies war. Haven't we had enough wars?

Legacy of Obama

I seldom agree with president Obama on anything. Obamacare has been a disaster. I disagree with Obama on social spending, minimum wages, and collective bargaining. I did not vote for president Obama in either election, and I voted in both elections.

But Obama is correct on this issue. Unless Republicans manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, this deal, not Obamacare will be the legacy of president Obama.

I am tired of political hypocrites who are against anything and everything simply because someone in the other party wants it. Republicans still will not admit that Romneycare and Obamacare are the same damn thing.

Had Romney won (I did not vote for him either), we probably would be at war with Iran right now.

The only way to break the cycle of war is diplomacy. Everyone should cheer this effort.

The worst that can happen is Iran reneges and sanctions are put back on. The best is vastly improved relations with Iran, an end to Iran's nuclear weapons program, free-flowing oil, more global trade, and a huge moderation in the attitudes of Iran towards the West.

Why Should Iran Trust Us?

If Republicans don't approve this deal, how about some reasons other than we don't trust them?

Given that Walker has vowed, if elected, that he will pull the U.S. from the international deal on "day one", why should Iran trust us?

Rand Paul 2016;

What "deal" does Cruz want? Walker? Rubio? Bush?

Based on their statements, I will not vote for any of them. I suspect many independents and libertarians feel the same way. People are tired of wars and this deal is the only chance to avoid war. And spare me the sap about Hitler. Iran has problems but it is not seeking world domination.

The "Obama Doctrine" is far batter than the "Bush Doctrine" that allows preemptive warfare. If we can preemptively attack others, why can't they do the same?  

I am more than pleased that Graham blasted Rand Paul over Iran. His willingness to endorse Hillary over Paul confirms one thing I was pretty sure of already: Rand Paul is not only the best Republican candidate, he is the only one that merits any consideration.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.

Autonomous Golf Green Mowing and the Death of Lawn Maintenance Employment in General

Posted: 05 Apr 2015 02:30 PM PDT

If mining operations will soon be autonomous, can golf course maintenance be far behind?

Here's an image of what to expect.



Please consider the Cub Cadet.
Since its introduction, the RG3 has been operated, demonstrated and tested at over two dozen courses nationwide, mowing more than 45 million square feet of greens in a variety of shapes, sizes, contours and grass types. During that time, the RG3 has been proven to make the golf course maintenance staff at least 50% more productive during the critical course preparation hours, while providing unparalleled consistency across all greens.

In addition to labor efficiencies, the RG3 has been proven to provide greens speed increases consistent with lightweight rolling practices, and the most consistent putting surface possible across all greens by combining rolling and mowing in the same unit and eliminating the influence of an operator.

Using a proprietary positioning technology that trumps GPS, the RG3 moves precisely and safely across the green, traveling in straight lines and along curved perimeters without the need for a human operator. Its gentle turns minimize turf bruising, while a built-in traction control feature reduces drum slipping on steep inclines. With a turn distance that is adjustable each day, turns in the same location can be eliminated.
"The RG3's impact to our putting greens has exceeded my expectations. We are achieving higher clipping yield, more consistent greens speeds and smoother putting surfaces with less manpower," says John Shaw, CGCS, Valley Brook CC.

Death of Lawn Maintenance Employment

Expect golf course mowing positions to vanish within a few years. Many yard work service positions will vanish as well.

Zero-degree mowers are in widespread use. It will not take much to equip them with self-mowing capability.

So instead of a homeowner farming out mowing (or mowing himself), envision a system where the homeowner maps the perimeters of the lawn and the perimeters of any flower beds that need to be avoided, and the mower does the rest.

Rather than pay someone to mow the lawn twice a week, a fully autonomous mower would pay for itself in a year or two most likely. And the higher the minimum wage, the faster the payback of purchasing such equipment rather than hiring someone to mow your lawn.

Accessories to fertilize the lawn will come with the package. Of course perimeter settings can move from machine to machine. This will enable mower settings transfer to equipment such as aerators.

Need aeration? Just have someone drop off an aerator, transfer your perimeter settings to the machine, and off it goes. Human operators need not apply.

The lawn service companies that remain in business will consist of drivers that drop off the equipment and perhaps make the initial perimeter settings, rather than human workers that actually mow or aerate lawns.

And of course, given that autonomous vehicles of all sorts are on the way, eventually human drivers will not even be needed to get lawn maintenance equipment to the location.

One reader commented "Robot lawn mowers have been around for about 10 years. It's the same technology as the iRobot vacuums that came out 20 years ago."

I responded "How well did those devices work and how much did they cost?" I actually doubt the technology is the same.

Regardless, it is obvious such technology is making huge inroads at a remarkable pace now. For whatever reason (cost or functionality), 20 years ago no one had such devices.

Fully autonomous vehicles of all sorts will be common within a few years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.

Seth's Blog : A practical definition of reputation

A practical definition of reputation

Reputation is what people expect us to do next. It's their expectation of the quality and character of the next thing we produce or say or do.

We control our actions (even when it feels like we don't) and our actions over time (especially when we think no one is looking) earn our reputation.

       

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sâmbătă, 4 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Peek Inside Caterpillar's Fully Autonomous Mine Site - Drivers Not Needed

Posted: 04 Apr 2015 07:38 PM PDT

Mining automation has long been a dream for those in the industry.

In the following video, Caterpillar announces fully autonomous mining has arrived. Take a peek inside the people, technology and innovation that are making this dream a reality with a tour of an autonomous mine site in Australia.



Link if video does not play: Caterpillar's Mining Automation Journey

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Free Tuition at Stanford for Families Making Less than $125,000; Free Room and Board As Well for Under $65,000

Posted: 04 Apr 2015 12:00 PM PDT

Expect applications to Stanford university to soar with this announcement: Tuition free for Families Earning Less than $125,000 Per Year.
Stanford University will provide free tuition to parents of students who earn less than $125,000 per year — and if they make less than $65,000, they won't have to contribute to room and board costs, either.

Students are still expected to pay $5,000 toward college costs from summer earnings and working part-time while enrolled in college.

If a student's parents make less than $125,000 per year, and if they have assets of less than $300,000, excluding retirement accounts, the parents won't be expected to pay anything toward their children's Stanford tuition. Families with incomes lower than $65,000 won't have to contribute to room and board, either.

Students themselves will have to pay up to $5,000 each year from summer earnings, savings, and part-time work. There's no rule that parents can't cover their students' required contribution.

Why other colleges can't do this — but what they can learn

Stanford enrolls a high proportion of wealthy students, who pay higher tuition that helps subsidize lower-income peers. And Stanford is one of the world's richest universities, with an endowment of $21 billion.

On the other hand, there's something that every college could emulate about Stanford's policy: it's incredibly simple and straightforward.

Middle-class students know even before they apply to Stanford what they'll have to pay to attend, whether they'll be able to afford it, and how much they'll have to borrow. At most colleges, the amount a family is expected to pay doesn't show up until after students have applied, been accepted, and filled out financial aid paperwork. That's partly because many colleges are stretching their financial aid budgets and don't know what they're dealing with until students have been admitted.

Most colleges can't match Stanford's generous financial aid commitment. But they could at least try to duplicate its simplicity.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Endless Supply of Rabbits? Greece to Make April 9 IMF Repayment; Bond Market Unimpressed; Tsipras Heads to Russia

Posted: 04 Apr 2015 10:53 AM PDT

Greece to Make April 9 IMF Repayment

April 9th was one of the critical dates by which Greece was said to be out of cash. By now most expect these kinds of deadlines to come and go in belief the eurozone hat has an endless supply of rabbits.

Sure enough, Reuters reports Greece Says Ready to Make IMF Payment on April 9
Greece will repay a loan tranche to the IMF on time on April 9, its deputy finance minister said on Friday, seeking to quell fears of default after a flurry of contradictory statements on the issue in recent days.

Greece is fast running out of cash and its euro zone and International Monetary Fund lenders have frozen bailout aid until the new leftist-led government reaches agreement on a package of reforms.

That prompted the interior minister to suggest this week that Athens would prioritize wages and pensions over the roughly 450 million euro ($490 million) payment to the IMF, though the government denied that was its stance.

Euro zone officials then quoted Greece as saying it will run out of money on April 9, which the finance ministry denied.

"We strive to be able to pay our obligations on time," Dimitris Mardas told Greece's Skai TV. "We are ready to pay on April 9."

Adding to the confusion, German magazine Der Spiegel quoted a finance ministry general secretary, Nikos Theocharakis, as saying Greece would probably not pay next week's IMF tranche, prompting a further denial from the Greek finance ministry.
Bond Market Unimpressed

The bond market is unimpressed. Let's take a look at several durations.

Greece 10-Year Bond Yield



Greece 5-Year Bond Yield



Greece 2-Year Bond Yield



Notice the steep inversion in the yield curve. The 10-year yield is 11.91% while the 2-year yield is 23.57%.

This is a sign of default risk and the larger haircuts that shorter term durations will take vs. longer durations. Come in far enough and the bond prices are steep, but no longer inverted.

For example let's take a look at 3-month and six-month durations.

Greece 3-Month Bond Yield



Yield on the Greek 3-month bond is exceptionally high compared to the rest of the eurozone but at least it is not inverted compared to 10-year bonds.

However, the 3-month bond is inverted compared to the 6-month bond.

Greece 3-Month Bond Yield



Tsipras Heads To Moscow As IMF Withdraws Athens Staff

Zerohedge reports Tsipras Heads To Moscow As IMF Withdraws Athens Staff; Greek Default Risk Hits Post-Crisis High
Amid growing pressure from their 'Troika colleagues' with Eurogroup Chair Dijsselbloem noting there is "still a long way to go" on Greek proposals and The IMF withdrawing its staff in Athens; new prime minister Alexis Tsipras heads to Russia to meet with Putin early next week. As Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov noted - somewhat intriguingly - "Greece has not asked [Russia] for financial aid... yet," as Tsipras is expected to seek agreement for a 'road map' of initiatives on the political and economic levels. Greek default risk has resurged in the last few days to its highest since the last 'restructuring'...

Greek default risk hits post-crisis highs...


Odds of Default Surge

Back on January 28, Bloomberg stated Greece Credit Swaps Surge to Signal 70% Probability of Default. Odds have gone up since then.

Endless Supply of Rabbits?

Is there an endless supply of rabbits? I actually do not think so. Greece may not run out of money in April but it will run out of money by June in my estimation. That is less than three months away.

As I noted on February 11, Greece Needs Third Bailout to the tune of €53.8 Billion Needed.

I am convinced that Syriza will not agree to another bailout adding still more debt on top of the already unsustainable €323 billion pile. The extension granted to Greece runs out in June. In July a €3.5 billion payment is due the ECB, and in August another €3.2 billion payment is due the ECB.

Can Greece come up with €6.7 billion? I don't think so. All this extension did was give both sides more time to come up with an exit strategy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Customer service and luxury

Customer service and luxury

If your Chanel bag wears out, don't expect the same response you might find if you have trouble with something from LL Bean or Lands End. Luxury brands have long assumed that if you can afford to buy it, you can afford to replace it.

That's changing.

The mass brand leaders in most markets have figured out how to deliver extraordinary promises at scale. Note the high end guys. The mass ones. They do this by realizing that the cost of making the customer happy is tiny compared to the cost of leaving her unhappy.

[Hint: if you think that there's any chance at all that people consider what you sell a luxury good, the answer is, they probably do.]

Go to a McDonalds. Buy a Big Mac and a chocolate milkshake. Drink half the milkshake. Eat half the Big Mac. Put the rest of the Big Mac into the milkshake, walk up to the counter and say, "I can't drink this milkshake, there's a Big Mac in it." You'll get a refund. (Please don't try this, but yes, it works).

It's cheaper to just say, "here's a refund," than it is to start a debate.

How is a luxury brand going to compete? Is part of the story of why you pay extra because of the service you'll get? Lexus did groundbreaking work on this (compare the Lexus service story/truth to the way Porsche or Jaguar owners used to be treated).

Luxury buyers who see that they're getting lesser service feel stupid, and stupid is the brand killer.

If you're going to sell luxury, you probably need to figure out how to use some of the premium you charge to deliver even better service than your lower-priced competition.

       

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vineri, 3 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Huge Miss on Jobs: Establishment +126K Jobs; Household +34K Employment, Labor Force -96K

Posted: 03 Apr 2015 08:22 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.

Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"

It is still difficult to say if this is the start of a new trend, but it could be.

Last month the household survey showed a gain in employment of a meager 96,000 and much of that was teen employment. This month the household survey came in at an anemic 34,000.

The labor force declined in each of the last two months. Those "not in the labor force" rose by a whopping 631,000 in the last two months.

Huge Miss on Expectations

The Bloomberg Consensus jobs estimate was for 247,000 jobs, missing by a mile. In fact,  the number came in lower than any estimate. The estimate range was 200,000 to 271,000.

Not only that, January and February were both revised lower. The net was 69,000 lower.

Economists blame the weather. Bad weather in March? And not in January and February? 

Let's take a look at all the key numbers.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +126,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +34,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -130,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: +70,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -104,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.5% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 10.9% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +181,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: -96,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +277,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.7 - Household Survey

March 2015 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while mining lost jobs.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment January 2012 - March 2015



Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees declined by 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.04 at $20.86. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.03 at $20.66.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 5.5%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 10.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.

For further discussion of a more accurate measure of the unemployment rate, please see Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com