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Are you going to succeed because you return emails a few minutes faster, tweet a bit more often and stay at work an hour longer than anyone else?
I think that's unlikely. When you push to turn intellectual work into factory work (which means more showing up and more following instructions) you're racing to the bottom.
It seems to me that you will succeed because you confronted and overcame anxiety and the lizard brain better than anyone else. Perhaps because you overcame inertia and actually got significantly better at your craft, even when it was uncomfortable because you were risking failure. When you increase your discernment, maximize your awareness of the available options and then go ahead and ship work that scares others... that's when you succeed.
More time on the problem isn't the way. More guts is. When you expose yourself to the opportunities that scare you, you create something scarce, something others won't do.
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Posted: 20 Nov 2011 08:50 PM PST Tonight I received a thoughtful email from reader Rick Cameron who made some observations and notes way back in 1992 and recently went back to review those notes. His notes are regarding the European ERM, the Exchange Rate Mechanism, that was supposed to reduce exchange rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe. Before I list the thoughts of Cameron, here is some background information on the ERM and the countries involves: The UK entered the ERM in 1990 but in 1992 Britain exited the ERM after the pound sterling came under pressure from George Soros, dubbing Soros as "the man who broke the Bank of England". In 1993 the currency band had to be expanded 15% to accommodate speculation against the French franc and other currencies. Wikepedia notes the ERM came to be known as an "Eternal Recession Mechanism" after Britain fell into recession during the early 1990s. European ERM 1992 Replay With that backdrop, please consider this Email from Cameron. Hello MishSame Issues, Same Players Yes indeed. We have exactly the same issues and same players. Note that the UK is still on the outside looking in, with the rest of Europe clamoring to get the UK in. The smart play would be for Cameron to stay on the outside, looking out as noted in Will Cameron Sell UK Down the River for Worthless Promises? Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France Since 1992, there has been an obvious change in political leadership. However, the politicians involved all still seek the same proverbial free lunch. Irony of the Maastricht Treaty The irony of the Maastricht Treaty is that it did temporarily bring about the currency stability everyone wanted. However, that currency stability came at the expense of something far worse - inherent interest rate instability (coupled with heightened fiscal instability). It just took some time to play out. Now, instead of attempting to defend untenable currency targets, the ECB, the Eurocrats, and the IMF all have their hands full attempting to maintain untenable interest rate targets. With yields soaring in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Belgium in relation to Germany, the Troika has failed. To alleviate interest rate concerns and fiscal instability caused by the Maastricht Treaty, politicians now openly discuss breaking up the Eurozone, which of course will immediately kick off a full-blown currency crisis in various countries. Interest Rates on Government Bonds Go Full Circle ![]() click on chart for sharper image Chart from Spiegel Online When the currency crisis happens and the Eurozone breaks up as is inevitable, Europe will have gone full circle on both interest rates and currencies, with politicians chasing their tail every step of the way. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 20 Nov 2011 10:25 AM PST The UK had been expected to have a voter referendum on proposed EU treaty changes. The EU of course does not want voter referendums or anything that look remotely democratic as we have seen by actions in Greece and Italy. Deal or No Deal? The problem for the EU is all 27 nations have to agree to treaty changes or it's no deal. A political work-around is in progress (as always). And Merkel will allegedly give up on the Financial Transaction Tax idea if only Cameron will sign on the bottom line. Piss Poor Deal It's a piss poor deal and Cameron should know it. Once the EU gets what they want, Sarkozy and Merkel and others will be back at it, demanding once again the financial transaction tax and God only knows what else. Secret Plans to Derail Referendum The Telegraph notes Germany's secret plans to derail a British referendum on the EU Germany has drawn up secret plans to prevent a British referendum on the overhaul of the European Union amid concerns it could derail the eurozone rescue package, leaked documents obtained by The Daily Telegraph disclose.Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France The Guardian reports Cameron warned his eurozone stance risks forcing two-speed Europe David Cameron will be warned that he risks creating an unstoppable momentum behind a "two-speed Europe", which would be dominated by France and Germany, if Britain demands too many concessions during the eurozone crisis.Got that? Cameron is supposed to accept a bad deal from Merkel, or Germany will make an even worse deal with France. German Finance Minister Says UK will Join the Euro Talk like this should scare the hell out of the UK citizens: Britain will have to join the euro, says Tory grandee Lord Heseltine Britain will soon have no choice but to join the euro, Tory grandee Lord Heseltine has claimed, as tensions grow over the eurozone's slow-moving efforts to get a grip on the spreading debt crisis. German Finance Minister Says UK will Join Euro Please consider Britain 'will join euro before long', says German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said that, despite the current crisis in the eurozone, the euro will ultimately emerge as the common currency of the entire European Union. He said he "respects" Britain's decision to keep the pound, but insisted that the survival and eventual stabilisation of the euro will convince non-members to join the currency club. "This may happen more quickly than some people in the British Isles currently believe," he added.Promises on Transaction Tax will not be Kept The arrogant talk by Schäuble in and of itself should be enough to convince Cameron that the financial transaction tax talk will never go away and that no deal with Merkel can be trusted. Thus, Cameron should not agree to any treaty changes except those for the explicit purpose of creating exit procedure for countries to leave the Euro. The Eurozone is about to break up yet Merkel, Schäuble, Sarkozy and others still cling to failed ideas. Pressure on the UK is nothing but last minute sheer desperation by those attempting to bully the UK into accepting the creation of a nanny-zone super state. The irony is both Cameron and Merkel want something that is blatantly stupid. Cameron wants the ECB to buy bonds on a massive scale, while Merkel wants the financial transaction tax and a nanny-zone super state. All three ideas are horrendous. Should Cameron get sucked into a lousy deal (which means virtually any deal Merkel will offer), all Cameron would accomplish would be to prolong the agony. Enough is enough, Cameron should tell Merkel "No Deal", which of course is the polite way of saying "Go to Hell". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
House Won't Sell? No Problem, Simply Raise the Price by 78%; It's Different in Bizarro World Posted: 20 Nov 2011 09:10 AM PST It's different in Vancouver says a reader in response to Vancouver Real Estate Bubble in Pictures; Presenting the $1,050,000 "Livable" House . "Fortunate Fool" writes ... Hello MishFortunate Fool backs up his claim with this article from the Vancouver Sun: Vancouver mansion for sale: $31.9 million A house has just gone on the market at 3390 The Crescent in Shaughnessy for $31.9 million. That may sound like a lot of money, but it isn't the highest listing price in Metro Vancouver — a house at 2190 Camelot in West Vancouver is for sale at $39.9 million. And has been, for several months.It's Different in Bizarro World The owners upped their price from $17.9 million (offered just last year) to $31.9 million, an increase of 78%, because they want to "downsize to an apartment". This of course makes perfect sense because "It's different in Bizarro World" just as it is in Vancouver. Inquiring minds may be interested in the "Complete History of Bizarro World" from Superman to Seinfeld to Saturday Night Live. We can safely add Vancouver to the list. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
China's Vice Premier Sees "Chronic Global Recession"; Why this Astonishing Admission? Posted: 20 Nov 2011 12:11 AM PST It's not often we hear candid talk from global leaders about the economic realities that lay ahead. This is one of those rare times. Please consider China vice premier sees chronic global recession A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.Why this Astonishing Admission? Regular Mish readers will not find that forecast surprising in the least. What is surprising is the high-ranking official who makes that forecast. In a world of global economic denial about the Euro, about deficits in the US, about housing bubbles in Australia, China, and Canada, and in general denial about every economic woe the world faces, one might ask "why this astonishing admission?" I have a 3-part answer
The admission by the vice-premier simply reflects the demise of China's export model in the face of a rapidly slowing global economy accompanied by a regime change in China that will be forced to shift its internal priorities. These thoughts echo comments I have made previously in ...
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Internet advertising is so cheap (particularly Facebook and run of site network buys) that just about anyone can afford a million impressions, and a billion isn't out of reach.
Pretty soon it turns into noise. An infinite number of impressions is dangerously close to no impressions at all.
The conversation media reps have with advertisers quickly devolves into, "how cheap can I buy a million impressions?" What a waste. That number, out of context, is nothing but a crutch, a poor stand in for the insightful analysis that media buyers ought to be using.
Far better to focus on two things, both leading to the real goal:
Perception. Does the ad you're running increase the value of your name? Are you perceived as an annoyance, an interruptor--or are you a valued sponsor, a trusted friend, someone who is making things better?
and
Interaction. Not merely a click that leads to a sale. I'm talking about any sort of interaction with you or your organization, whether it's an online chat, a phone call or navigating your site. Too often, online marketers are focused on pennies per click instead of long-term value per engagement.
Both perception and interaction lead to permission. Permission to deliver anticipated, personal and relevant messages over time. Permission to tell a story. Permission to earn attention on an ongoing basis.
Impressions don't automatically get you permission. In fact, they might cost it.
[I'm amused to sometimes hear people refer to my concept of "Permission Marketing" as "Permissive Marketing." Pretty Freudian.]
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Vancouver Real Estate Bubble in Pictures; Presenting the $1,050,000 "Livable" House Posted: 19 Nov 2011 05:34 PM PST Housing bubble denial in Canada keeps getting louder and louder, as prices become more and more absurd. Terry from Canada writes Hi Mish,$1,050,000 "Livable" House Inquiring minds my be interested to see what $1,050,000 will buy in Vancouver. ![]() Note the alleged 6 bedrooms (3 converted from the basement) but only 2 bathrooms. Who are they kidding? Is this the happy hooker flop house? Unfortunately, pictures like these are easy to find. The longer this continues the bigger the crash. Look for prices on such properties to crash 75% or more. When it does, it will be no bargain. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 19 Nov 2011 10:15 AM PST The very instant the Greek "Unity Government" formed it was divided. Antonis Samaras, the leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, one of the three coalition parties that formed the government says he will not sign a document demanded by the IMF before it will release the next tranche. That's not all, Samaras actually wants to rework the agreement. Neither will fly (at least with Greece receiving the next tranche of money), and tensions fester. Bloomberg reports Samaras Won't Sign Pledge Committing to EU's Greek Debt Accord Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, won't sign a document pledging his commitment to the Oct. 26 European Union agreement for the nation, the Athens News Agency reported. Is this posturing? If so, what is the gain? I think he will sign, or the New Democracy Party will take the blame for the collapse. The situation is even messier than a signing agreement. Samaras Wants Rollbacks of Austerity Measures He Disagrees With Athens News comments Troika back in town The interim government took a first step on Friday towards meeting terms of an international bailout needed to avoid bankruptcy, submitting a budget bill that foresees no new austerity measures next year as long as reforms are enacted. These coalition "unity" governments in both Greece and Italy are struggling already, and over things that would seem to be a given like signing a document that appears to be a formality to what has been agreed upon. Is signing a document such a big deal? It might be if the intent is to roll back the agreement. The Greek "Unity" government has effectively collapsed already. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 18 Nov 2011 11:55 PM PST The BBC has an excellent interview with Kyle Bass - Founder, Hayman Capital Hedge Fund on Europe, mortgages, monetary printing, "gold and guns" and Japan. At times the interviewer is openly hostile to Bass, blaming him for making money on the US mortgage mess, then again when Greece blew up. Bass defends himself quite nicely. His latest play is an asymmetric bet on Japan, based on demographics, interest rates, and ability to service debt. I happen to agree with Bass, that it is just a matter of time before the Yen blows up. I must also point out people have been predicting this for a decade. Bass finishes on a strong note "Buying gold is just buying a put on the idiocy of the political cycle. ... Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without Hell. You have to have atonement for ridiculous levels of spending both the US and Europe have gone through. The spending idiocy of the world is going to catch up to itself. And that's where we are today." It's an excellent but lengthy interview (about 23 minutes), well worth a play. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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