Central Perk

marți, 14 ianuarie 2014

GOOGLE GIVES BACK SOME KEYWORD DATA

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 03:09 AM PST

oogle giveth and Google taketh away.

Most of you will have noticed that the organic keyword data provided by Google Analytics has been gradually fading away and replaced by the token 'not provided'.

This was introduced after Google announced that it was taking measures to protect personalised search, which basically meant that it would no longer be providing keyword data for users who were signed into Google.

This all started towards the end of 2011, but began snowballing in August 2013. After looking at 5 of our clients (with websites of all sizes), it became clear that they all saw a similar increase in the percentage of 'not provided' results throughout 2013, with a steep rise between August and September.

However, just as we were beginning to lose all hope for the future of keyword data in Analytics, Google launched an update in its Webmaster tools platform that appears to be giving some of our keyword data back.

Google Webmaster Tools > Search Queries

It is now possible to see your top keywords by exact impressions and clicks, as well as your top visited web pages with a drilldown to display the keywords that were used to find them. While some of this data has always been available, the significant thing about this update is that we can now see precise traffic volumes against the keywords, giving us a more accurate picture of what's going on.

As you can see below, a black line has appeared in the search query timeline which represents the change, with a note "An improvement to our top search queries data was applied retroactively on 12/31/13"

You can also see that by selecting the 'Top Pages' tab, you can expand each URL to show the keywords that users used to find that page (thanks to Barry schwartz for the images)

On-Site Search

There are other ways to extract keyword data from Google Analytics, and the on-site search feature is a great example of this.

Many websites have their own internal search facility, allowing visitors to search through the content based on a keyword or phrase. While we often try to make it easy for users to find pages within sites by use of navigation, on-site search can help to fill in the gaps, and some of your users will naturally be drawn to carry out a search.

GA provides us with the means to track keywords from on-site search, giving you access to some extremely useful keyword data that is exclusive to your website, so you can to tap into your visitors' search habits to find out exactly what they are looking for.

Some of the Benefits

This is useful for a number of reasons, as it allows you to:

Find gaps in your content/categories or product range, where a search returns no results
Get a better understanding of what search terms are used by your customers/visitors so that you can further optimise your pages to ensure they are as relevant as possible
Test your search results based on your top keywords to make sure that they are relevant
Spot common spelling errors and add in redirects to send users to the correct landing page or results page
Control the user journey by tailoring the results based on specific keywords

Tracking on-site search in Analytics is a feature that I find isn’t used enough, so if you don't have this enabled then make sure you add it to your to-do list.

Setting up Site Search Tracking

It's very easy to set up, but first you need to decide how best to provide your keywords to Google, and this may vary depending on your website functionality.

There are two options to choose from:

Option 1

Most websites use dynamic URLs to handle searches, which are unique URLs that include the keywords that were searched, associating them to a specific search parameter. In this case, we can simply add this search parameter to Google Analytics, which will point out the keywords that you want to track.

For example, if I was looking for information on Council tax in Oxford, I would go to the oxford.gov website and use the on-site search facility to search for 'council tax'. Below you can see that the search page is displayed and the URL reflects my search.

The URL includes my search query, which is assigned to the parameter 'sitesearch_search'.

To capture this keyword data, simply open your GA account, Click the Admin Tab, and then under 'View', select 'View Settings'.

Next, scroll to the bottom of the page and under 'Site Search Setting', set the 'Site Search Tracking' to 'On', and then enter your query parameter(s) into the box below. In the Oxford.gov case you would add 'sitesearch_search'.

It is also possible to remove the parameters from the reports in GA, by ticking the 'Strip query parameters out of URL' box.

If you want to go one step further, you can also enter extra parameters to allow Analytics to identify which search categories are chosen by your visitors. Again, you can opt to have the parameters taken out of your GA reports.

Option 2

The next option may be more suitable for those of you who don't use dynamic search URLs. The content updates to reflect the search, but the URL remains the same.

The keyword data can be captured by customising the tracking codes on your search results pages. This requires you to create a virtual page path within the code that includes the keyword that was searched and assigns it to a parameter, without needing to display it on the page or within the URL.

For more information on how to set on-site search up, head over to Google Support.

One last tip – you may or may not use dynamic URLs to handle your searches but, if you do, it's important to remember that whenever you have a unique URL, you potentially have a page that can be crawled and indexed by the search engines.

Google doesn’t look too kindly on 'thin' content (pages with very little content that add no real value to the web), so it is advised that you prevent the search engines from indexing your results pages. This can be done via your robots.txt file; by placing the 'noindex' tag on all search pages, and even within 'URL parameters' under the 'Crawl' section in Google Webmaster Tools.

By Sam Gooch

The post GOOGLE GIVES BACK SOME KEYWORD DATA appeared first on White Noise.

Seth's Blog : "Our biggest problem is awareness"

"Our biggest problem is awareness"

If that's your mantra, you're working to solve the wrong problem.

If your startup, your non-profit or your event is suffering because of a lack of awareness, the solution isn't to figure out some way to get more hype, more publicity or more traffic. Those are funnel solutions, designed to fix an ailing process by dumping more attention at the top, hoping more conversion comes out the bottom.

The challenge with this approach is that it doesn't scale. Soon, you'll have no luck at all getting more attention, even with ever more stunts or funding.

No, the solution lies in re-organizing your systems, in re-creating your product or service so that it becomes worth talking about. When you do that, your customers do the work of getting you more noticed. When you produce something remarkable, more use leads to more conversation which leads to more use.

No, it won't be a perfect virus, starting with ten people and infecting the world. But yes, you can dramatically impact the 'more awareness' problem by investing heavily in a funnel that doesn't leak, in a story that's worth spreading.

• Email to a friend •

luni, 13 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Five Housing Headwinds; Mortgage Originations Lowest Since 2010; Refinancible Loan Percentage Collapses; Payment Shock
France Collective Depression; Growing Demand for Protection from Immigrants; Only 35% Think EU is Good for France
Gold Manipulation: Is it Illegal? Risk Free? What About JP Morgan?

Five Housing Headwinds; Mortgage Originations Lowest Since 2010; Refinancible Loan Percentage Collapses; Payment Shock

Posted: 13 Jan 2014 09:01 PM PST

Black Knight Financial Services, formerly LPS, released its latest Mortgage Monitor Forecast.

Key Highlights

Mortgage originations are at the lowest levels in almost four years
Prepayment/refi activity indicates another drop coming
Higher interest rates slow refinance activity
Quality of loans originated in 2013 have made it the best performing vintage on on record.
Home equity originations are up significantly since a year ago: total HE lending is up 70%, while volume on 2nd mortgages has more than doubled
Population of "refinancible" loans continues to shrink - Only 5.9M loans meet broadly defined criteria for refinancing, down 4M since December 2012.
Delinquencies continue to rise among HELOCs that began amortizing
High risk of "payment shock" in the coming three years

Here are some charts.
Anecdotes in red are mine. Click on any chart for sharper image.

Origination Volume Lowest Since 2010

Refi Activity Collapses with Rising Rates

2013 Best Vintage on Record

Home Equity Loans Up

Refinancible Loan Percentage Collapses

Payment Shock on HELOCs

Key Takeaways

Performance on 2013 origination is at record highs because of record low interest rates coupled with rising home values.

If home prices stagnate or rates continue to rise, this could be as good as it gets. The Fed is fighting major headwind battles.

Five Headwinds

Rising rates
Slowing economy
Reduced values because of rising rates
Reduce values because of rising home prices
Demographics of retiring and downsizing baby boomers

Some may dispute point number 2.

Regardless, I think this is as good as it gets. If the economy does not slow (extremely doubtful in my opinion), rates will rise, further collapsing values.

If the economy slows, demand for housing will slow with it. This may seem circular, and it is. But it all depends on where we are in the cycle. A "recovery" since 2009 is pretty long in the tooth, historically speaking.

Even with the alleged recovery, originations are back to 2010 levels. What happens if the recovery falters?

Values are already extremely distorted by Fed activity and all-cash purchases by the likes of Blackrock and equity funds.

Home equity extraction is likely to decline as is the stock market. Those are my opinions, but they are backed up by valuation metrics and extreme sentiment including a bubble belief the Fed can do no wrong.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

France Collective Depression; Growing Demand for Protection from Immigrants; Only 35% Think EU is Good for France

Posted: 13 Jan 2014 06:49 PM PST

Les Echos reports "the distrust of politics has never been so high in France. This is one of the great lessons of the latest CEVIPOF annual poll".

Distrust of politics is extremely high everywhere, but at least the US is not in a depression.

Collective Depression

Via translation, please consider The French fall into a "collective depression"

The situation was already not good. And it gets worse again.

Pascal Perrineau, director of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), now talks of a "collective depression" in France.

For the first time since 2009 - the date of creation of the barometer, "gloom" has a relative majority of 34%, up 9 points. Three-quarters of French youth believe their chances of success of are less than their parents.

60% of French - an increase of 5 points over one year - believe their financial situation will worsen over the next twelve months.

Unions are in the barometer of CEVIPOF, with only 28% of French having confidence. This is a fall of 7 points in a year.

Growing Demand for Protection

Hardening of values is found by the barometer ("there are too many immigrants") with for 67% in agreement.

47% of respondents - a jump of 17 points since 2009 - say France need "more protection". Only 23% want France to open more. Only 35% of French believe that belonging to the European Union is a good thing for France, a drop of 17 points since October 2011.

That statement of opinion will influence the European elections next May. The National Front, with its europhobe speech was well received.

87% of respondents believe that politicians care little or nothing of their opinions (+6 points). 69% - an increase of 21 points - believe that democracy does not work.

Key Stats

Only 35% think the EU is good for France
By a 24 percentage point margin (47-23), voters want more protection from immigrants
67% believe there is too much immigration
60% think their economic situation will worsen in 2014
87% think politicians "don't care"
69% think democracy does not work

That is one heck of a change in sentiment since president Francois Hollande was elected.

Once again I repeat my thesis Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Outrageous Predictions

Points 1-3 in the above "key stats" speak volumes about Saxo Bank 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2014 - Steen Jakobsen.

Here is Saxo Bank prediction number 2.

Anti-EU alliance will become the largest group in parliament: Following the May elections, a pan-European, anti-EU alliance, whose members will include the UK Independence Party, euro-currency sceptic Alternative for Germany, the National Front in France and Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, will become the largest group in parliament with a majority of more than 275 seats.

Sweeping the traditional political groups out of power, the new European Parliament chooses an anti-EU chairman and the European heads of state and government fail to pick a president of the EC, sending Europe back into political and economic turmoil.

One trade would be to long German Bunds versus short Spanish Bonos – looking for a 300-basis-point spread again.

Unconventional Thinking

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, is not afraid to speak his mind about trading ideas and back them up with sound logic that many would say is "unconventional thinking".

I am very pleased that he is speaking at this year's conference.

Wine Country Conference II

The second annual Wine Country Conference will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014.

We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year's conference.

John Hussman: Founder of Hussman Funds, Director of the John P. Hussman Foundation which is dedicated to providing life-changing assistance through medical research
Steen Jakobsen: Chief Economist of Saxo Bank
Stephanie Pomboy: Founder of MacroMavens macroeconomic research
David Stockman: Ronald Reagan's budget director, best-selling author, former Managing Director of The Blackstone Group
Mebane Faber: Co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management
Jim Bruce: Producer, Director, and Writer of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve
Chris Martenson: Reknown speaker and founder of Peak Prosperity
Mike "Mish" Shedlock: Investment advisor for Sitka Pacific and Founder of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

In addition, we expect confirmation from a number of other highly respected fund managers and speakers. This year's event is two days and will include additional "break-out" groups.

For speaker bios, please check out Wine Country Conference Speakers.

This Year's Cause: Autism

$100,000 of the money raised last year came from a generous matching grant from the John P. Hussman Foundation.

Some of us in the industry who have done well are making an effort to make a difference. John Hussman is at the very top of that list.

One of John's kids has severe autism. This year, all net proceeds will go to support autism programs.

Conference Details

For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014

Nothing Like It!

This event is not just another "come and hear someone talk" kind of thing. Attendees and their significant others can expect an educational, fun, and relaxed time.

Last conference, we arranged wine tours. They were a big hit. We will do so again. One of the wine estates we visited had a Bocce Ball court. On a couple of miracle shots, I won both games I played.

Stay an extra day and golf or travel. I did. The conference hotel is a fun place in and of itself.

Unlike many other conferences, you will have easy access to speakers.

Want to chat with me, Steen, John, or anyone else at the conference? You will have an easy chance.

Not only do we have an excellent lineup of speakers, you will have an opportunity to meet with them, have intimate discussions on important investment topics, with a lot of fun on the side, including wine tours and great wine.

There's nothing like it in the investment business. And your money goes to a great cause! What can be better?

Please Register Now!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gold Manipulation: Is it Illegal? Risk Free? What About JP Morgan?

Posted: 13 Jan 2014 11:29 AM PST

In the wake of the Gold Flash Crash six days ago in which prices suddenly plunged then recovered, numerous people have been wondering "who is the culprit".

Will the Real Manipulator Please Stand Up?

At the top of the heap in demanding an investigation is a guest post article on ZeroHedge, written by Russ Winter, Open Letter to Gold Investors: Will the Real Manipulator Please Stand Up.

Winter maintains "The real debate should center on who is really conducting this gold attack activity. Financial journalists should be looking at this as well."

I am amused by this kind of waste of time, but even more amused by the details that Winter disclosed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's most recent banker participation report on positions as of Dec. 1 shows the U.S. banks as four participants. They are not identified by name, but historically and deductively, JP Morgan is the largest and most dominant participant. Over the last quarter this report has shown that the four big banks have continued to build a net-long position, now at 57,408 futures contracts, or 5.741 million ounces."

So is JP Morgan the short manipulator of gold as some suggest? At one time perhaps, but now I believe the answer is unequivocally "no" and, in fact, the complete opposite. JP Morgan and the three other U.S. banks have a large net-long position equal to nearly 15% of Comex open interest.

When Shorts Cover

For years we heard from GATA and others "JPMorgan and the gold shorts will be blown out of the water and eventually forced to cover their shorts at higher and higher prices. Gold will go to the moon".

What happened? Somewhere along the line, JPMorgan became net long as the price of gold plunged. Now we are in search of a different elusive force allegedly suppressing the price of gold.

It's always someone. And the same ridiculous articles appear over and over, with fingers occasionally changing the direction of the "big point".

What Happened?

Clearly the JPMorgan conspiracy crowd was wrong about what would happen when JPMorgan covered. And with JPMorgan now net long where are the cries for JPMorgan to dump its now-concentrated net-long hoard of gold?

Futures Math

Market Makers (of which JPMorgan is one of the biggest), must take the opposite side of the trades of others. When big players are net long gold futures, then JPMorgan will be short. If someone else is massively short, then JPMorgan or another market maker will be long.

In the futures game for every short future someone else is long. That is a simple mathematical statement of fact.

Futures Math Corollary

If market makers must (and they must take the other side of positions) then position statements and market-maker analysis as to who is long or short cannot and do not offer proof of manipulation.

Yes, it is that simple.

I propose the big players don't care one iota what direction something is headed. They are happy to make a profit in any direction.

Finally, it is realistic to assume the entire time JPMorgan was net short, that it was hedged in some fashion (otherwise it would have been blown out of the water when gold hit $1900).

Manipulation Risk

Does manipulation occur? I am sure it does, in both directions. Is it illegal? I am not so sure. It depends on what one means by "manipulation".

I asked my friend Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog for his thoughts on the subject. Via email he replied ...

Are there occasional attempts to influence prices in the short term by 'bombing' the market during periods of low volume? Yes, it happens.

Once someone sold 2,000 contracts at market in the middle of the night at precisely the time when both trading volume and order books are at their smallest. The seller accepted a loss of at least $2 million as compared to what he could likely have gotten during more liquid hours. The only reason to do that is if one tries to artificially drive the price down.

However, the opposite also happens on occasion, with traders trying to drive prices up in the wee hours.

I suspect that the traders involved take options positions beforehand, but this kind of activity is not without risk. You never know for sure if you will succeed in triggering stops or if perhaps eager buyers or sellers are waiting for just such a move to strike.

Mistakes can be very costly.

Illegal?

In a followup question on the legality of dumping or buying contracts at illiquid times Pater responded ...

It may be a slightly dubious practice, but it is definitely not illegal. The people doing it take a pretty big risk actually.

I personally don't waste much time thinking about market manipulation by private parties, since it always fails in the end anyway.

All manipulations eventually fail, I only brought up 'private parties' because the one type of manipulation I do worry about is that by government bodies like the Fed, as it does economy-wide damage.

GATA Hype

There is no credible evidence of a constant force by any big players to suppress the price of gold.

Every time I make such a statement I get sent a mass of GATA-hype, none of which amounts to proof of anything. Invariably, the alleged proof is nothing more than GATA allegations trumped up as facts.

Looking for GATA hype? You can find it here: Where are the insider admissions about gold? Right here

Looking for a detailed point-by-point rebuttal? You can find it here: Systemic Distrust and GATA Hype

Once again, I am NOT saying manipulations Don't occur. Nor do I suggest JPMorgan is lily-white.

Instead I repeat something I have said all along "There is no reason for the banks involved to continuously and purposely want to suppress the price of gold. Nor is there any real evidence they do so."

And humorously, JPMorgan is now net long!

Gold Fundamentals

I suggest you throw these manipulation allegations in the ashcan where they belong and focus on something more important such as the fundamental driver for the price of gold. The fundamental case for owning gold has not changed.

For details, please see Plague of Gold Bears Now Say "Gold Unsafe at Any Price"; What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com