luni, 1 iunie 2015

Misuses of 4 Google Analytics Metrics Debunked - Moz Blog


Misuses of 4 Google Analytics Metrics Debunked

Posted on: Monday 01 June 2015 — 02:16

Posted by Tom.Capper

In this post I'll pull apart four of the most commonly used metrics in Google Analytics, how they are collected, and why they are so easily misinterpreted.

Average Time on Page

Average time on page should be a really useful metric, particularly if you're interested in engagement with content that's all on a single page. Unfortunately, this is actually its worst use case. To understand why, you need to understand how time on page is calculated in Google Analytics:

Time on Page: Total across all pageviews of time from pageview to last engagement hit on that page (where an engagement hit is any of: next pageview, interactive event, e-commerce transaction, e-commerce item hit, or social plugin). (Source)

If there is no subsequent engagement hit, or if there is a gap between the last engagement hit on a site and leaving the site, the assumption is that no further time was spent on the site. Below are some scenarios with an intuitive time on page of 20 seconds, and their Google Analytics time on page:

Scenario

Intuitive time on page

GA time on page

0s: Pageview
10s: Social plugin
20s: Click through to next page

20s

20s

0s: Pageview
10s: Social plugin
20s: Leave site

20s

10s

0s: Pageview
20s: Leave site

20s

0s

Google doesn't want exits to influence the average time on page, because of scenarios like the third example above, where they have a time on page of 0 seconds (source). To avoid this, they use the following formula (remember that Time on Page is a total):

Average Time on Page: (Time on Page) / (Pageviews - Exits)

However, as the second example above shows, this assumption doesn't always hold. The second example feeds into the top half of the average time on page faction, but not the bottom half:

Example 2 Average Time on Page: (20s+10s+0s) / (3-2) = 30s

There are two issues here:

  1. Overestimation
    Excluding exits from the second half of the average time on page equation doesn't have the desired effect when their time on page wasn't 0 seconds—note that 30s is longer than any of the individual visits. This is why average time on page can often be longer than average visit duration. Nonetheless, 30 seconds doesn't seem too far out in the above scenario (the intuitive average is 20s), but in the real world many pages have much higher exit rates than the 67% in this example, and/or much less engagement with events on page.

  2. Ignored visits
    Considering only visitors who exit without an engagement hit, whether these visitors stayed for 2 seconds, 10 minutes or anything inbetween, it doesn't influence average time on page in the slightest. On many sites, a 10 minute view of a single page without interaction (e.g. a blog post) would be considered a success, but it wouldn't influence this metric.

Solution: Unfortunately, there isn't an easy solution to this issue. If you want to use average time on page, you just need to keep in mind how it's calculated. You could also consider setting up more engagement events on page (like a scroll event without the "nonInteraction" parameter)—this solves issue #2 above, but potentially worsens issue #1.

Site Speed

If you've used the Site Speed reports in Google Analytics in the past, you've probably noticed that the numbers can sometimes be pretty difficult to believe. This is because the way that Site Speed is tracked is extremely vulnerable to outliers—it starts with a 1% sample of your users and then takes a simple average for each metric. This means that a few extreme values (for example, the occasional user with a malware-infested computer or a questionable wifi connection) can create a very large swing in your data.

The use of an average as a metric is not in itself bad, but in an area so prone to outliers and working with such a small sample, it can lead to questionable results.

Fortunately, you can increase the sampling rate right up to 100% (or the cap of 10,000 hits per day). Depending on the size of your site, this may still only be useful for top-level data. For example, if your site gets 1,000,000 hits per day and you're interested in the performance of a new page that's receiving 100 hits per day, Google Analytics will throttle your sampling back to the 10,000 hits per day cap—1%. As such, you'll only be looking at a sample of 1 hit per day for that page.

Solution: Turn up the sampling rate. If you receive more than 10,000 hits per day, keep the sampling rate in mind when digging into less visited pages. You could also consider external tools and testing, such as Pingdom or WebPagetest.

Conversion Rate (by channel)

Obviously, conversion rate is not in itself a bad metric, but it can be rather misleading in certain reports if you don't realise that, by default, conversions are attributed using a last non-direct click attribution model.

From Google Analytics Help:

"...if a person clicks over your site from google.com, then returns as "direct" traffic to convert, Google Analytics will report 1 conversion for "google.com / organic" in All Traffic."

This means that when you're looking at conversion numbers in your acquisition reports, it's quite possible that every single number is different to what you'd expect under last click—every channel other than direct has a total that includes some conversions that occurred during direct sessions, and direct itself has conversion numbers that don't include some conversions that occurred during direct sessions.

Solution: This is just something to be aware of. If you do want to know your last-click numbers, there's always the Multi-Channel Funnels and Attribution reports to help you out.

Exit Rate

Unlike some of the other metrics I've discussed here, the calculation behind exit rate is very intuitive—"for all pageviews to the page, Exit Rate is the percentage that were the last in the session." The problem with exit rate is that it's so often used as a negative metric: "Which pages had the highest exit rate? They're the problem with our site!" Sometimes this might be true: Perhaps, for example, if those pages are in the middle of a checkout funnel.

Often, however, a user will exit a site when they've found what they want. This doesn't just mean that a high exit rate is ok on informational pages like blog posts or about pages—it could also be true of product pages and other pages with a highly conversion-focused intent. Even on ecommerce sites, not every visitor has the intention of converting. They might be researching towards a later online purchase, or even planning to visit your physical store. This is particularly true if your site ranks well for long tail queries or is referenced elsewhere. In this case, an exit could be a sign that they found the information they wanted and are ready to purchase once they have the money, the need, the right device at hand or next time they're passing by your shop.

Solution: When judging a page by its exit rate, think about the various possible user intents. It could be useful to take a segment of visitors who exited on a certain page (in the Advanced tab of the new segment menu), and investigate their journey in User Flow reports, or their landing page and acquisition data.

Discussion

If you know of any other similarly misunderstood metrics, you have any questions or you have something to add to my analysis, tweet me at @THCapper or leave a comment below.


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Seth's Blog : Marketing to the organization

Marketing to the organization

If you can't persuade your peers and your boss, then your project is never going to have a chance. I've learned this the hard way.

Here are some of the principles of marketing that impact how you can get the organization to understand and to take action, because, as in all marketing, perception matters:

Permission: Do you have the privilege of delivering anticipated, personal and relevant messages about your project to the people you work with? Would they miss your updates and your insights if you didn't send them? How do you earn the ability to be heard?

Ideavirus: Do your ideas spread within the organization? Do people talk about your projects when you're not the one initiating the conversation, when you're not in the room?

Your story: Not the facts of your project or initiative, but the story of it... does it resonate with the worldview of the organization and the people who work there? If you're busy talking profit and they're busy listening for impact (or vice versa), how does that mismatch effect your ability to make change? (A key story element often overlooked by the internal storyteller: risk).

Remarkable: Are you creating work that demands to be talked about?

Tribes: Who's on your team--not because they report to you, but because you're in sync? Are you leading people who want to be led, helping parts of the organization move in a direction that feels right to them?

Idea diffusion: Are you bringing the boldest ideas to the early adopters, and socializing them gradually as they move through the organization to the majority?

Many of the books I've written (along with other post-advertising marketing books) address the idea of changing the status quo without interrupting strangers with ads. It's as important to do this inside your organization as outside.

Part of the job of the CEO or leader is to create an organization where good ideas are easy to market internally.

Internal marketing starts with this: do it intentionally, as intentionally as you would market your project outside the organization. Every memo, email and presentation you do inside is a marketing effort, and it should be treated that way.

       

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duminică, 31 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Tsipras Accuses Troika of "Creditor Monstrosity", Urges Eurozone Leaders to Read "For Whom the Bell Tolls"

Posted: 31 May 2015 07:34 PM PDT

It appears the eurozone is one step closer to an "accident" today. In a Le Monde editorial Defiant Tsipras Threatens to Detonate European Crisis Rather than Yield to Creditor "Monstrosity".
Greek premier Alexis Tsipras has accused Europe's creditor powers of issuing "absurd demands" and come close to warning that his far-Left government will detonate a pan-European political and strategic crisis if pushed any further.

Writing for Le Monde in a tone of furious defiance after the latest set of talks reached an impasse, Mr Tsipras said the eurozone's dominant players were by degrees bringing about the "complete abolition of democracy in Europe" and were ushering in a technocratic monstrosity with powers to subjugate states that refuse to accept the "doctrines of extreme neoliberalism".

"For those countries that refuse to bow to the new authority, the solution will be simple: Harsh punishment. Judging from the present circumstances, it appears that this new European power is being constructed, with Greece being the first victim," he said.

"If some, however, think or want to believe that this decision concerns only Greece, they are making a grave mistake. I would suggest that they re-read Hemingway's masterpiece, "For Whom the Bell Tolls"," he said.

The situation has become critical after depositors withdrew €800m from Greek banks in two days at the end of last week, heightening fears that capital controls may be imminent.

Mr Tsipras's choice of words also implies that Greece may turn its back on the Western security system, presumably by shifting into the orbit of Russia and China.

The Left Platform has called for a full "counter-attack" against the EU powers, laying out its inflexible terms in a new document. It demands a default on the debt and the "immediate nationalization of the banks with all necessary accompanying measures".

"What the ruling circles of the EU, the ECB and the IMF are ruthlessly and consistently aiming for in the last four months, is to strangle the economy, to milk the last euro from the country´s reserves and to push a vulnerable government into full submission and exemplary humiliation," it said.
Greek Debt Pile



What cannot be paid back, won't. And anyone with any bit of common sense knew four years ago.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pitiful Alignment: War Hawk Hypocrites and Liberals Pressure Paul as Clock Ticks on Patriot Act

Posted: 31 May 2015 12:33 PM PDT

At midnight, the Patriot Act expires. Given that the Patriot Act should never have passed in the first place, that's a good thing.

In a Time magazine op-ed, senator Rand Paul proclaimed I Will Stop the Illegal NSA Spying.
Sunday, I will continue my fight to end the illegal collection of American phone records. The Second Appeals court has ruled the NSA's bulk collection of phone records illegal. We should not be debating modifying an illegal program. We should simply end this illegal program.

We have all the tools we need to preserve both security and liberty. What we now need is a president with the will to do just that.

I would take the billions spent on collecting records of suspicionless Americans and spend it instead on FBI agents to monitor suspects who have given probable cause that they are a danger to us.

Individual warrants every day are used to arrest dangerous people. I see no reason we can't defend ourselves using the same Constitutional processes we've used for over two centuries.

Our country was founded on the principle of individual—not general—warrants.

After the current illegal powers end Sunday night the government could still get a warrant. It will just have to say on it Mr. John Smith, not Mr. Verizon.

One suspect, one warrant. Not hundreds of millions of records swept up in one illegal order.

I would argue this will make us more safe, not less. It has been said that finding a terrorist is like finding a needle in a haystack. Well, for years, your government's answer has been to make the haystack bigger by gobbling up every American's information.

That must end.

This president could fix the problem by himself but he hasn't done so. I stand ready to help lead the way on this important matter. On Sunday I will stop the illegal NSA spying.
Rand Paul Under Pressure

Of course, all the war-hawk constitutional hypocrites want the bill extended as does president Obama. Thus, Rand Paul is Under Pressure as Deadline Clock Ticks.
Rand Paul came under mounting pressure to prevent a full lapse in US surveillance authorities on Sunday, as allies of the Kentucky senator joined hawks at the opposite end of the political spectrum in calling for the swift passage of the compromise USA Freedom Act.

The USA Freedom Act would ban the government collection of bulk phone records first revealed in the Guardian by Edward Snowden, forcing the National Security Agency (NSA) to make specific requests from telecom providers instead. It is supported by the Obama administration.

On Sunday morning, the Utah Republican senator Mike Lee, a sponsor of the USA Freedom Act and close ally of Paul, distanced himself from his colleague's tactics.

"I do believe we have the votes," said Lee. "So at this point the question is not really whether we get this passed but when it will happen: tonight or Wednesday, or sometime between then."

Despite the ability of Senate leaders to eventually force through a vote against his wishes, Senator Paul was in defiant mood, reveling in his lonely stand against both parties and ability to force a temporary lapse in the Patriot Act provisions.

"On Sunday I will stop the illegal NSA spying," he wrote in an opinion piece for Time magazine.

"We should not be debating modifying an illegal programme. We should simply end this illegal programme," he added.

In comments to supporters in South Carolina and a statement issued to Politico, Paul hinted that he would not give majority leader McConnell the unanimous consent needed to move to a final vote on USA Freedom Act when the Senate resumes for an unusual Sunday session at 4pm.

"It's not a violation of civl liberties," insisted presidential hopeful Jeb Bush in an interview with CBS, in which he warned the nation's security would be endangered if the bulk collection programme was allowed to expire.

"There is no evidence, not a shred of evidence that the metadata programme has violated anybody's civil liberties," Bush claimed.
Jeb Bush Unable to Reason

Apparently Jeb Bush can neither read nor think because on May 7, 2015, a Top Federal Court Ruled Against NSA's Phone Records Program.
A federal court has decided that the National Security Agency's bulk, warrantless collection of millions of Americans' phone records is illegal.

The sweeping decision from the Second Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday represents a major court victory for opponents of the NSA and comes just as Congress begins a fight over whether to renew the underlying law used to justify the program. 

That program "exceeds the scope of what Congress has authorized," Judge Gerard Lynch wrote on behalf of the three-judge panel.

The law "cannot be interpreted in a way that defies any meaningful limit," he added.

Additionally, the government's rationale behind the program represents "a monumental shift in our approach to combating terrorism," which was not grounded in a clear explanation of the law.

The Second Circuit's decision provides the most significant legal blow to the NSA operations to date and comes more than a year after a lower court called the program "almost-Orwellian" and likely unconstitutional. The appeals court did not examine the constitutionality of the surveillance program in its ruling on Thursday.
No Shred of Evidence

Let's modify Jeb Bush's statement so that it actually makes sense: "There is no evidence, not a shred of evidence that the metadata programme has stopped any terrorist acts. Bulk data gathering is not only a colossal waste of money, it violates the constitution."

Nonetheless, I suspect Lee is correct when he says "I do believe we have the votes".

Pitiful Alignment

Republicans pitifully align themselves with Obama in support of a preposterously named USA Freedom Act, a bill 100% guaranteed to curtail freedom.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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