vineri, 11 septembrie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The World's 17 Most Dangerous Foods [Infographic]

Posted: 11 Sep 2015 05:40 PM PDT

Mr Gamez compiled an infographic of the world's 17 deadliest foods, along with some interesting notes about each deathtrap and why consumers should beware.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

The Craziest Things That Have Ever Happened in the Apple Store

Posted: 11 Sep 2015 02:15 PM PDT
























The Impact of Queries, Long and Short Clicks, and Click Through Rate on Google's Rankings - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

The Impact of Queries, Long and Short Clicks, and Click Through Rate on Google's Rankings - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

Through experimentation and analysis of patents that Google has submitted, we've come to know some interesting things about what the engine values. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand covers some of what Google likely learns from certain user behavior, specifically queries, CTR, and long vs. short clicks.

The Impact of Queries Whiteboard

Click on the whiteboard image above to open a high resolution version in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat about click-through rate, queries and clicks, long versus short clicks, and queries themselves in terms of how they impact the ranking.

So recently we've had, in the last year, a ton of very interesting experiments, or at least a small handful of very interesting experiments, looking at the impact that could be had by getting together kind of a sample set of searchers and having them perform queries, click on things, click on things and click the back button. These experiments have actually shown results. At least some of them have. Others haven't. There are interesting dichotomies between the two that I'll talk about at the end of this.

But because of that and because of some recent patent applications and some research papers that have come to light from the search engines themselves, we started to rethink the way user and usage data are making their way into search engines, and we're starting to rethink the importance of them. You can see that in the ranking factor survey this year, folks giving user and usage data a higher than ever sentiment around the importance of that information in search rankings.

3 elements that (probably) impact your rankings

So let me talk about three different elements that we are experiencing and that we have been talking about in the SEO world and how they can impact your rankings potentially.

1) Queries

This has to do primarily with a paper that Google wrote or a patent application that they wrote around site quality and the quality of search results. Queries themselves could be used in the search results to say, "Hey, wait a minute, we, Google, see a lot of searches that are combining a brand name with a generic term or phrase, and because we're seeing that, we might start to associate the generic term with the brand term."

I'll give you an example. I've done a search here for sushi rice. You can see there's Alton Brown ranking number one, and then norecipes.com, makemysushi.com, and then Morimoto. Morimoto's recipe is in Food & Wine. If lots and lots of folks are starting to say like, "Wow, Morimoto sushi rice is just incredible," and it kind of starts up this movement around, "How do we recreate Morimoto sushi rice," so many, many people are performing searches specifically for Morimoto sushi rice, not just generic sushi rice, Google might start to see that and say, "You know what? Because I see that hundreds of people a day are searching for this particular brand, the Morimoto sushi rice recipe, maybe I should take the result from Morimoto on foodandwine.com and move that higher up in the rankings than I normally would have them."

Those queries themselves are impacting the search results for the non-branded version, just the sushi rice version of that query. Google's written about this. We're doing some interesting testing around this right now with the IMEC Labs, and maybe I'll be able to report more soon in the future on the impact of that. Some folks in the SEO space have already reported that they see this impact as their brand grows, and as these brand associations grow, their rankings for the non-branded term rise as well, even if they're not earning a bunch of links or getting a lot of other ranking signals that you'd normally expect.

2) Clicks and click through rate

So Google might be thinking if there's a result that's significantly over-performing its rankings ordinary position performance, so if for example we say, let's look at the third result. Here's "How to make perfect sushi rice."

This is from makemysushi.com. Let's imagine that the normal in this set of search results that, on average, the position three result gets about 11%, but Google is seeing that these guys makemysushi.com is getting a 25% click-through rate, much higher than their normal 11%. Well, Google might kind of scratch their head and go, "You know what? It seems like whatever the snippet is here or the title, the domain, the meta description, whatever is showing here, is really interesting folks. So perhaps we should rank them higher than they rank today."

Maybe that the click-through rate is a signal to Google of, "Gosh, people are deeply interested in this. It's more interesting than the average result of that position. Let's move them up." This is something I've tested, that IMEC Labs have tested and seen results. At least when it's done with real searchers and enough of them to have an impact, you can kind of observe this. There was a post on my blog last year, and we did a series of several experiments, several of which have showed results time and time again. That's a pretty interesting one that click-through rate can be done like that.

3) Long versus short clicks

So this is essentially if searchers are clicking on a particular result, but they're immediately clicking the back button and going back to the search results and choosing a different result, that could tell the search engine, could tell Google that, "You know, maybe that result is not that great. Maybe searchers are deeply unhappy with that result for whatever reason."

For example, let's say Google looked at number two, the norecipes.com, and they looked at number four from Food & Wine, and they said, "Gosh, the number two result has an average time on site of 11 seconds and a bounce back to the SERPs rate of 76%. So 76% of searchers who click on No Recipes from this particular search come back and choose a different result. That's clearly they're very disappointed.

But number four, the Food & Wine result, from Morimoto, time on site average is like 2 minutes and 50 seconds. That's where we see them, and of course they can get this data from places like Chrome. They can get it from Android. They are not necessarily looking at the same numbers that you're looking at in your Analytics. They're not taking it from Google Analytics. I believe them when they say that they're not. But certainly if you look at the terms of use in terms of service for Chrome and Android, they are allowed to collect that data and use it any way they want.

The return to SERPs rate is only 9%. So 91% of the people who are hitting Food & Wine, they're staying on there. They're satisfied. They don't have to search for sushi rice recipes anymore. They're happy. Well, this tells Google, "Maybe that number two result is not making my searchers happy, and potentially I should rank number four instead."

There are some important items to consider around all this...

Because if your gears turn the way my gears turned, you're always thinking like, "Wait a minute. Can't black hat folks manipulate this stuff? Isn't this really open to all sorts of noise and problems?" The answer is yeah, it could be. But remember a few things.

First off, gaming this almost never works.

In fact, there is a great study published on Search Engine Land. It was called, I think, something like "Click-through rate is not an organic ranking signal. It doesn't work." It talked about a guy who fired up a ton of proxy servers, had them click a bunch of stuff, faking traffic essentially by using bots, and didn't see any movement at all.

But you compare that to another report that was published on Search Engine Land, again just recently, which replicated the experiment that I and the IMEC Labs folks did using real human beings, and they did see results. The rankings rose rather quickly and kind of stayed there. So real human beings searching, very different story from bots searching.

Look, we remember back in the days when AdWords first came out, when Omniture was there, that Google did spend a ton of time and a lot of work to identify fraudulent types of clicks, fraudulent types of search activity, and they do a great job of limiting that in the AdWords account. I'm sure that they're doing that on the organic SEO side as well.

So manipulation is going to be very, very tough if not impossible. If you don't get real searchers and a real pattern that looks like a bunch of people who are logged in, logged out, geographically distributed, distributed by demographic profile, distributed by previous searcher behavior, look like they're real normal people searching, if you don't have that kind of a pattern, this stuff is not going to work. Plenty of our experiments didn't work as well.

What if I make my site better for no gain in rankings?

Even if none of this is a ranking factor. Even if you say to yourself, "You know what? Rand, none of the experiments that you ran or IMEC Labs ran or the Search Engine Land study published, none of them, I don't believe them. I think they're all wrong. I find holes in all of them." Guess what? So what? It doesn't matter.

Is there any reason that you wouldn't optimize for a higher click-through rate? Is there any reason you wouldn't optimize for longer clicks versus shorter clicks? Is there any reason that you wouldn't optimize to try and get more branded search traffic, people associating your brand with the generic term? No way. You're going to do this any way. It's one of those wonderful benefits of doing holistic, broad thinking SEO and broad organic marketing in general that helps you whether you believe these are ranking signals or not, and that's a great thing.

The experiments have been somewhat inconsistent.

But there are some patterns in them. As we've been running these, what we've seen is if you get more people searching, you tend to have a much better chance of getting a good result. The test that I ran on Twitter and on social media, that had several thousand people participating, up, up, up, up, rose right up to the top real fast. The ones that only had a few hundred people didn't seem to move the needle.

Same story with long tail queries versus more head of the demand curve stuff. It's harder to move more entrenched rankings just like it would be with links. The results tended to last only between a few hours and a few days. I think that makes total sense as well, because after you've inflated the click signals or query signals or long click signals or whatever it is with these experimental results, over time those are going to fall away and the norm that existed previously is going to return. So naturally you would expect to see those results return back to what they were prior to the experiments.

So with all that said, I'm looking forward to some great discussion in the Q&A. I know that plenty of you out there have been trying and experimenting on your own with this stuff, and some of you have seen great results from improving your click-through rates, improving your snippets, making your pages better for searchers and keeping them on it longer. I'm sure we're going to have some interesting discussion about all these types of experiments.

So we'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Seth's Blog : A fly on the wall

A fly on the wall

It's easier than ever to listen in, to hear what your customers say about you, to read what your friends are posting, to eavesdrop. Keep surveying your employees, tap their phone lines, hang out in a stall in the break room...

If you try hard enough, you can hear what people are saying about you behind your back.

The thing about the fly on the wall, though, is at the end of the day, he spends a lot of time eating dung.

What people say isn't always what they mean. It's more productive to watch what they do.

       

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joi, 10 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


UPS Pilots Seek Strike: Union says Salary of $238,000 Not Enough

Posted: 10 Sep 2015 04:18 PM PDT

With the holiday shopping season just about upon us, the Independent Pilots Association (IPA), a trade union representing pilots at UPS, said its leadership has called on its 2,528 members to authorize a pilot strike against UPS.

Please consider Further Airline Problems are Brewing at UPS.
The possibility of a major disruption to UPS domestic and international air cargo services has moved closer after the union representing pilots at the parcel giant asked its members to back a strike.

The Teamsters have also ended talks with the airline and called a strike.

The Independent Pilots Association representing all UPS pilots says that negotiations which began four years ago have gone on too long.

UPS said it wants to reach an agreement as soon a possible, but such contracts often take years to agree because of their complexity.

The company has claimed that the threat of a strike is costing it about $5 million a day in business lost to competitors such as the US Postal Service and Federal Express Corp.
IPA Claim

Captain Robert Travis, Independent Pilots Association: "UPS has stalled and delayed, unnecessarily prolonging our negotiations"

UPS Claim
"During the 27-year history of UPS Airlines, we have successfully negotiated four contracts with our pilots, who are the top earners in commercial aviation. We hope to reach a new agreement as quickly as possible. However, airline industry contracts often take multiple years to complete. This is due to the complexity of the pacts and the protections of the Railway Labor Act (RLA) [the U.S. law that governs airline contract talks]. Under the RLA, airline contracts do not expire, they become amendable. Their terms remain in force while the new contract is negotiated. This is true even when the union employs tactics such as a strike authorization vote, a routine show of solidarity in airline negotiations that is legally irrelevant to the actual proceedings."
Pity the Pilots

  • Captains have a guaranteed salary of $255,128, with a typical captain earning another $35,000.
  • FedEx captains earn a guaranteed $230,379.
  • The average pay of all UPS pilots, including captains and first officers, is $238,000, dwarfing the median wage for a U.S. commercial airline pilot at $98,410 based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
  • UPS crew members enjoy two company-funded retirement plans in addition to a traditional 401(k)
  • UPS offers comprehensive health insurance with an annual contribution that costs a third less than what a typical U.S. family pays.

Reader Anecdotes

Reader Tim Wallace writes ...
Hello Mish

I flew home recently with a UPS pilot who told me he loves his job. Now I know why. He does the international loop, in which he is away 8 days at a time, then home for 10. Not a bad gig.

Tim
Railway Labor Act

Wikipedia reports the Railway Labor Act is a "United States federal law that governs labor relations in the railroad and airline industries. The Act, passed in 1926 and amended in 1934 and 1936, seeks to substitute bargaining, arbitration and mediation for strikes as a means of resolving labor disputes. Its provisions were originally enforced under the Board of Mediation, but were later enforced under a National Mediation Board."

Strike Threats

These strike threats drag out for years because of mandated negotiations, and specific rules over "major" and "minor" disputes.

Unions can strike over major disputes only after they have exhausted the RLA's "almost interminable" negotiation and mediation procedures. They cannot, on the other hand, strike over minor disputes, either during the arbitration procedures or after an award is issued.

Government Meddling

Once again, note the problems where government meddles. Businesses and private taxpayers alike, all pay higher shipping costs because of nonsensical mandated arbitration, collective bargaining, and forced unionization.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Cross-Border Deflation: US Export Prices Collapse Most Since July 2009; How Damaging is Price Deflation?

Posted: 10 Sep 2015 10:33 AM PDT

Export Prices Collapse Most Since July 2009

Today's Import/Export report will have alarm bells ringing in the heads of various Fed members.

Month over month, export prices fell 1.4% with the Bloomberg Consensus opinion at -0.4%. The decline was outside the range of any estimate.

Economists' estimates ranged from -1% to +0.1%.
Significant declines sweep nearly all categories of the import & export price report pointing squarely to a deepening of cross-border deflationary pressures. Import prices fell 1.8 percent in August, slightly more than expected, while export prices fell 1.4 percent which is substantially more than expected. The monthly drops for both are the steepest since the oil-price rout of January.

Petroleum pulled down the import side but even when excluding petroleum, prices fell 0.4 percent. Export prices were hit by lower prices for industrial supplies, foods-feeds-beverages, and also agricultural products. And finished goods, whether on the import or export side, show a run of minus signs for both the monthly readings and the year-on-year readings.

Year-on-year rates are severe, at minus 11.4 percent for total imports, which is the lowest since September 2009, and minus 7.0 percent for exports which is the lowest since July 2009.
Let's dive into the BLS report on U.S. Import and Export Prices for more details and charts.

Import Prices



click on any chart for sharper image

Export Prices



Year-Over-Year Import and Export Price History Since 1990



Cross-Border Price Deflation

In case you missed it, please see China PPI Declines 42nd Consecutive Month; Banks Struggle to Contain Devaluation Fallout; More Capital Controls.

How Damaging is Price Deflation?

The Fed focus on prices is ridiculous as noted on numerous occasions.

For discussion of the nonsensical perils of CPI deflation, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

The Fed's very attempt at producing "price stability" does exactly the opposite over the long haul. It is only over the short haul in which Fed policy actually "appears" to work.

Middle-class damaging boom bust cycles of ever-increasing amplitude over time are proof enough.

I would love to debate Bernanke, Yellen, or Krugman on this any time, any place.

Steve Keen on the Exponential Credit Petri Dish

Price stability is defined by the Fed as 2% CPI inflation annualized,  perpetually. That's an exponential function.

For further rebuttal and charts of the Fed's nonsensical definition of "stability", please see my posted email from Steve Keen regarding the Exponential Credit Petri Dish.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

China PPI Declines 42nd Consecutive Month; Banks Struggle to Contain Devaluation Fallout; More Capital Controls

Posted: 09 Sep 2015 11:29 PM PDT

China Deflation Fears Grow

Bad news stories continue in China today with reports of more capital controls, devaluation fallout, and another drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI).

Reuters reports China Deflation Fears Grow as Producer Prices Sink Most in Six Years.
China's manufacturers slashed prices at the fastest rate in six years in August as commodity prices fell and demand cooled, signaling stubborn deflation risks in the economy and adding to expectations for further stimulus measures.

The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent in August from the same period last year, its 42nd consecutive month of decline and the biggest drop since the depths of the global financial crisis in late 2009, data showed on Thursday.

Official and private factory surveys last week also showed manufacturers laid off workers at a faster rate last month as their order books shrank.
More Capital Controls

The Financial Times reports Beijing Clamps Down on Forex Deals to Stem Capital Flight
China has tightened its capital controls, in a sharp reversal of its market liberalising rhetoric, as it struggles to contain the fallout from last month's devaluation of the renminbi.

The August 11 devaluation unleashed turmoil on global stock markets and policy confusion at home, forcing the central bank to spend up to $200bn to support the currency. The prospect of an interest rate rise in the US has further encouraged capital flight.

The Safe [State Administration of Foreign Exchange] has ordered banks and financial institutions to pay particular attention to the practice of over-invoicing exports, used to disguise large capital outflows. The administration confirmed the existence of the memo, but declined to comment further.

For the first time since it began internationalising its currency a few years ago, the central bank has also been intervening heavily in the offshore renminbi market to narrow the gap between the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) exchange rates.

Analysts and people familiar with the matter say Beijing has spent up to $200bn defending the currency, but the net impact on the reserves is disguised by fluctuating valuations of reserve assets and other inflows into the reserves.

"They have gone from a credible peg that cost them almost nothing to a weak peg that nobody believes and that is costing them more than $10bn a day to defend. They're paying huge sums for something they had for free just a few weeks ago," said one person with close ties to China's central bank.

In another move to lighten its burden of defending the currency, the central bank informed banks last week that it would soon impose a new 20 per cent reserve requirement on all currency forward positions, in a move aimed at reducing heavy speculation on continued renminbi devaluation.

All market participants will be required to deposit the equivalent of 20 per cent of their forwards book with the central bank for one year at zero interest.

This will considerably increase the cost of currency hedging for Chinese companies, which had a total of $1.2tn in outstanding foreign currency debt by the end of March and are widely expecting further devaluation in the renminbi.
Quite the Reversal

It was not that long ago that hedge funds had massive bets the value of the Yaun would rise. China even took steps to stop "hot money" from flowing into the country.

Hot money, and then some is now going the other way.

By the way, please recall all the inflationists telling China to stockpile copper, lead, and other commodities instead of holding US treasuries, frequently labeled "worthless certificates of confiscation".

In retrospect, pro-cyclical stockpiling of commodities now looks foolish to nearly everyone. I took the other side of the argument at the time, as did Michael Pettis.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Master Your Muscles [Infographic]

Posted: 10 Sep 2015 06:12 PM PDT

Your body has approximately 640 muscles (depending on who's counting), and it's important to keep every group mobile and healthy. How many muscles do you ignore when you train? You might not realise you are doing it, but it's easy to get stuck in the same routine, forgetting about other important muscles and exercises.

Master Your Muscles

via decibelnutrition

Chelsea Marr Is Angelina Jolie’s Doppelganger

Posted: 10 Sep 2015 04:38 PM PDT

24 year old Scottish office worker Chelsea Marr is has a lot in common with the Hollywood Star, Angelina Jolie.














via instagram

World’s Largest Flower Parade In The Netherlands

Posted: 10 Sep 2015 03:28 PM PDT

These floats were inspired by Vincent Van Gogh.

















via facebook