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joi, 24 ianuarie 2013
Watch Joe Biden at 1:45 PM ET
Seth's Blog : Ideal, average and outlier
Ideal, average and outlier
Generalizations are the heart of marketing decision-making. When we look at an audience--customers, prospects, constituents--we make decisions on the whole based on our assumptions about the individuals within the group.
But are we basing those generalizations on our vision of the ideal member of the tribe, the average member or the outlier who got our attention?
It's easy, for example, to defend high-priced famous colleges if you focus on the ideal situation. The ideal student, getting instruction from the ideal professor and making ideal progress. No one can argue with this.
On the other hand, when we see the outlier (the person who is manipulating the system, or the one who is being harmed by it) it's easy to generalize in precisely the other direction, deciding that the entire system isn't worth saving.
And finally, it's tempting to rely on the average, to boil down populations of people into simple numbers. The problem with this, of course, is that if one foot is in a bucket of ice water and the other is being scalded, on average, you should be comfortable.
Before we start making decisions about markets, tribes and policy, we need to get clear about which signals we're using and what we're trying to focus on or improve.
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miercuri, 23 ianuarie 2013
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- China Flash PMI at 2-Year High; Don't Expect Too Much More
- Why I'm a Deflationist Who Likes Gold - Interview on Goldmoney
- Top Gaining and Losing Jobs in the "Recovery"
- Let Elderly People 'Hurry Up and Die', says Japanese Finance Minister; "Heaven Forbid if You are Forced to Live"; Shades of Dr. Kevorkian
| China Flash PMI at 2-Year High; Don't Expect Too Much More Posted: 23 Jan 2013 06:54 PM PST China manufacturing PMI is at a 24 month high. At 51.9, it's not all that much to get terribly excited about, nor is it all that unexpected. Nonetheless, conditions show a temporary rise following a lengthy bout of contraction. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ shows Operating conditions improve at the quickest pace in two years. Key Points"Steam to the Recovery?" I will take the other side of the steam to the recovery thesis. You cannot build much steam on inventory replenishment with weak (and weakening) external demand. Any steam needs to come from internal demand, and not internal demand caused by artificial stimulus measures. Unfortunately artificial stimulus is all there is. I commented on this uptick in advance. For discussion, please see in Pettis: Nine Things to Watch in 2013; Unwarranted Outbreak of Optimism in China and Europe; The Great Rebalancing. All is not what it seems. With China, it seldom is. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Why I'm a Deflationist Who Likes Gold - Interview on Goldmoney Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:40 AM PST On Tuesday I had a nice opportunity to Chat with GoldMoney's Andrew Duncan. I explain why I am a deflationist who likes gold, why most of the Austrians went wrong in ignoring credit, how hyperinflationists are too US-centric in their approaches, and why credit events are more likely (at least in the short-term) to happen in Japan, China, or Europe. I also discuss currency wars, the deflationary forces of robots on jobs and the balance of trade. On the humorous side, I answer the question as to what I would do if I were put in charge of the Fed. Click on the top link for more GoldMoney podcasts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Top Gaining and Losing Jobs in the "Recovery" Posted: 23 Jan 2013 09:21 AM PST This is part three in a series of articles on jobs gained and lost since December 2007. The first article was an interactive map from Tableau: Job Gains and Losses in the Recovery by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc). The second article Job Gaining and Job Losing Industries 2007-2012 displayed data in an interesting pie chart fashion by Salil Mehta who has a blog on Statistical Ideas. This article contains another look at the data, but focus is on jobs gained or lost in the recovery. Data for all three posts is courtesy of Economic Modeling Specialists. The recession ended in June of 2009, but the data I have is annual. Data in the following charts uses December of 2009 as a proxy for the start of the recovery. Once again, pie charts are by Salil Mehta. Click on any chart for sharper image. Top Losing Jobs in the Recovery  Top Gaining Jobs in the Recovery  For comparison purposes here are the December 2007 thru December 2012 charts once again. Job Gaining Industries 2007-2012  Job Losing Industries 2007-2012  Notes
Gainers vs. Losers Analysis If one listens to all the ads from for-profit schools as well as retraining hype from President Obama, one might actually think we need more IT training. As I have stated repeatedly, one cannot retrain a brick-layer into a programmer. Besides, there is a vast sea of skilled programmers (already trained) who do not have a job. I don't have a breakdown of healthcare and social services jobs, but the distinction between nurses, social workers and temporary care givers in terms of pay is without-a-doubt dramatic. I expect the economy added far more lower paying jobs than it did high-paying registered nursing jobs. Accommodation and food service jobs certainly tend to be low-paying jobs. Indeed, many food service jobs are part-time only, with no benefits at all. I suspect most waste management jobs are low-paying jobs as well. Compare the job gains in the recovery with job losses since 2007. Construction, manufacturing, and information tend to be relatively high-pay jobs. In the period 2007-2012 the economy shed roughly 2.36 million construction jobs, 1.98 million manufacturing jobs, and 380,000 information jobs (a total of 4.69 million high-paying jobs). Note that construction and information lost jobs even in the recovery. Simply put, the US shed more high-paying jobs in the recession than the economy gained jobs of any kind (high or low-paying) in the recovery. Involuntary Part-Time Employment  Part-Time Job Analysis Its better to have a part-time job than no job. However, it's certainly better to have a full-time job than a part-time job if one is seeking full-time employment. Roughly an additional 5 million workers went to involuntary part-time employment during or shortly after the recession. Only about one million of those jobs are now full-time, not necessarily in the same field, or at the previous pay scale. Unemployment Rate Artificially Low The official unemployment number is artificially low because it does not include any of the following:
My simple definition of unemployment is anyone who wants a jobs, is physically able to work a job, and does not have a job. By that definition, unemployment would certainly be North of 10%, and likely North of 11% (not even counting involuntary part-time employment). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com I am hosting an economic conference in April, in Sonoma. Please click on the image below for details. "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More  |
| Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:05 AM PST Taro Aso, Japan's Finance Minister who has a serious problem with foot-in-mouth disease says Let Elderly People 'Hurry Up and Die' Taro Aso said on Monday that the elderly should be allowed to "hurry up and die" to relieve pressure on the state to pay for their medical care.Shades of Dr. Kevorkian Judging from the insensitive nature of comments on health issues on top of all his previous gaffes, Aso is clearly unfit for office. However, a couple things he stated make perfect sense. For example "Heaven forbid if you are forced to live on when you want to die." That is the way I personally feel as well. It brings to mind Dr. Jack Kevorkian Jacob "Jack" Kevorkian commonly known as "Dr. Death", was an American pathologist, euthanasia activist, painter, author, composer and instrumentalist. He is best known for publicly championing a terminal patient's right to die via physician-assisted suicide; he claimed to have assisted at least 130 patients to that end. He famously said, "dying is not a crime".Dr. Jack Kevorkian's "60 Minutes" Interview Please consider Dr. Jack Kevorkian's "60 Minutes" Interview which contains a video of Dr. K. himself injecting a patient who suffered from Lou Gehrig's disease, with a dose of lethal drugs. Of all the interviews he conducted for "60 Minutes," Mike Wallace often said none had a greater impact than this one. Whose Decision Is It? To me this is a decision best left between an individual and a doctor, or an individual (and their family), and a doctor. I have signed papers saying I do not want to be artificially kept alive in certain situations. When my mother died of cancer, my father was asked by the doctor "do you want us to try and revive her?" I faced a similar setup myself, when my wife Joanne died. Terri Schiavo Case Let's not forget the Terri Schiavo Case. By any practical measure, Terri Schiavo was dead. She had no functioning brain. Yet it took a 7 year battle for her husband to get the right to remove her feeding tube. George Bush signed legislation to keep her alive. in 2003 Florida Governor Jed Bush signed "Terri's Law" forcing the state to keep a dead woman breathing against the wishes of her husband. Many of the statements by Taro Aso are of a different nature but some reflect attitudes regarding interference by government that we have seen in the US. What About Costs Finally, there is an issue with costs. Even if someone wants to be kept alive, what are the bounds on costs? Does it make sense to spend millions of dollars to keep someone alive for another year? At what point do we say "you get food, comfort care, and pain relievers" but that's it? I do not have a precise answer but I can precisely say we need to have a serious discussion on the topic. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish I am hosting an economic conference in April, in Sonoma, California. Please consider attending. Click on Image to Learn More |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
- The People vs. Winter [Video]
- There I Fixed It - Part 4
- DIY Outside Pizza Oven
- Hong Kong and Chinese Actresses Without Makeup
- How Old Are Our Favorite Sports? [Infographic]
| Posted: 23 Jan 2013 06:46 PM PST  When the people face off against the freezing cold evil known as "winter," guess which side wins out? |
| Posted: 23 Jan 2013 06:26 PM PST You know when your wife or some other annoying person wants something fixed? Well, these are images of those things getting fixed. Another great collection of the funniest and dumbest repair jobs. Previous parts: There I Fixed It - Part 1 There I Fixed It - Part 2 There I Fixed It - Part 3                                                           |
| Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:14 AM PST |
| Hong Kong and Chinese Actresses Without Makeup Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:19 AM PST With or without intention the actresses revealed their bare faces in front of the cameras and the photos quickly spreaded all over the internet so their fans had chance to see their real beauty. Even though some of them still look pretty with or without makeup like Liu Yifei and Shu Qi.                 |
| How Old Are Our Favorite Sports? [Infographic] Posted: 23 Jan 2013 08:55 AM PST People have run around hitting things, kicking things or chasing one another since the dawn of civilization -- but when did games become sports? And when did sports become the multi-billion dollar institution we know it as today? Let us take you on a journey through the advent of modern-day athletics. Click on Image to Enlarge.  Via visual.ly |
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